• last month
Greg Bedard and Nick Cattles preview an overseas matchup between the Patriots and the Jaguars, and discuss the key elements the Pats need to focus on to earn a victory in London. Can Drake Maye limit his mistakes? Can the offensive line contain edge rushers Trevon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen?

0:00 - Intro
3:05 - Rhamondre's game status
6:33 - Full workload readiness
9:03 - Personnel grouping issues
13:04 - Jaguars London trip
15:50 - Patriots' potential trades
18:51 - Future building blocks
20:51 - Patriots vs Jaguars
25:01 - Jaguars offensive problems
27:00 - Patriots wide receivers
28:35 - Jaguars rushing attack
30:34 - Drake Maye's performance
32:25 - Origins of wide zone
34:31 - RPO game strategy
36:19 - Trick plays discussion
37:59 - Jaguars improvement focus
43:30 - Final game predictions


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Transcript
00:00This is the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cavins.
00:10You know, I was going to ask Greg to send me, as they say, constantly across the pond
00:16so I could cover this game, but I just had a feeling that Bedard was going to shut that
00:20down.
00:21So I did not even ask.
00:22But here we are, both of us in New England to cover the Patriots versus Jags out in London
00:26coming up on Sunday morning.
00:28But first, let me tell you about prize picks.
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00:32Get 50 bucks instantly when you play $5.
00:35That's code CLNS on prize picks to get 50 bucks instantly when you play $5.
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00:45Download the game time app.
00:47Create an account.
00:48Use code CLNS for 20 bucks off your first purchase.
00:51Download game time today.
00:52All right, let's start with the headlines, Greg, as we do each and every podcast.
00:56Of course, we lead with Drake May and his knee.
00:59What's your hearing about the quarterback?
01:01Yeah, you know, what I'm hearing is pretty much what everybody else is hearing is that
01:09the the team doesn't really address the knee or people around the team.
01:14They just say he's fine.
01:15You know, he's fine.
01:17You know, I do think that I think that he tweaked something in the game.
01:22We saw him at one point limping.
01:24That may or may not have been tweaked again during practice on Wednesday, which led to
01:31Ben Bowen reported it was an MRI.
01:33Nobody has shot that down at this point.
01:38You know, am I overly concerned?
01:41No, I mean, I don't love it when the third overall draft pick is already hurting after
01:46one game.
01:47I think he'll be fine.
01:49I did.
01:50I did find it interesting that I was, you know, I was looking at him through my binoculars
01:55and he's one of these guys, Nick, that like his his pants, like come, they don't go over
02:01his knee.
02:02Yeah, he doesn't have it.
02:04They're almost like knickers the way he wears them.
02:07And I thought that was interesting.
02:09Also interesting that he wasn't wearing a knee brace.
02:12We all know, you know, Brady did that for a while until we all know what happened.
02:17And then after that, he always had a knee brace, at least on his on his front leg.
02:23His plant leg.
02:25So I'll be interested to see if there's any developments with Drake in that regard.
02:29I mean, I think the reports have been at least before, you know, with practice here in New
02:35England that he didn't have anything on his knee.
02:39So that's a good sign.
02:41But I wonder if that sort of changes once we get to the games.
02:45The pants stuff reminds me as a Notre Dame fan last year, Sam Hartman looked like he
02:48was wearing shorts on game days.
02:51It bothered the hell out of me for some reason.
02:53Romandre Stevenson running back.
02:55We all know who he is, did not play last week, banged up with the ankle.
02:59He did travel with the team, Greg.
03:01He's likely Mayo said today a game time decision.
03:04If he does play on Sunday morning, how big of a lift could he be for the offense?
03:08Oh, yeah, I mean, I definitely think it's big.
03:12I think that the you know, and it wasn't Antonio Gibson's fault.
03:16You know what happened with the running game?
03:20You know, last week, it was I do think that the Patriots sort of need all their backs.
03:27They're all sort of complimentary to each other.
03:29And Romandre is, you know, really the the workhorse of the backfield and the you know,
03:35I think that that brings a comfort and I think, you know, Gibson's a little bit more of a
03:40slasher.
03:41So having those guys, two guys together, I think is an asset for the offense.
03:45So yeah, getting him back would be it would be a nice little boost.
03:48I think.
03:49All right.
03:50Let's talk about Gerard Mayo.
03:51He was with the media this week before they left for London.
03:56And he talked about changes and he talked about some personnel changes.
04:01What kind of changes can we see, Greg, on Sunday?
04:05Your best guess as guys that could move around dudes who might start.
04:09We did hear about Christian Ellis from DeMarcus Covington seems like he's the obvious one
04:13replacing Raekwon McMillan.
04:16But any other thoughts about some changes that we could see?
04:19Yeah, I think it's going to be mostly superficial.
04:22I know Gerard talked about, quote unquote, sending a message.
04:27You know, the only guys that I see that would really send a message to where people are
04:32like, oh, crap, they mean business right now.
04:35I think you're looking at a guy like Michael Winnow, who has underachieved since getting
04:40that big contract.
04:44He has not been to the level that we have expected that he's normally played at before
04:49the contract.
04:50But do I think they're going to do that?
04:51No, I think they're going to bump him out to right tackle.
04:54I think we heard today that Leighton Robinson is going to play.
04:58Yeah.
04:59So I assume that's going to mean a Winnow to right tackle Leighton back to right guard
05:06where he got off to a fast start, but then, you know, sort of slumped.
05:09And I think Mayo talked about like a wall.
05:12You know, sometimes that happens and maybe he just needed a breather as a young guy and,
05:17you know, Lowe's going to be out.
05:18So I would expect DeMontre Jacobs to switch back over to left tackle.
05:24So another, you know, line combination here.
05:28But, you know, benching a guy like a Winnow would definitely send a message.
05:32They just they're not in that circumstance where they can do that because they don't
05:36have enough.
05:39As much as Mike has underachieved this year, he's still one of their better offensive linemen.
05:44So what are you going to do?
05:46I would I would probably reduce Jalen Polk's role.
05:50I would probably put him down to, you know, probably third or fourth on the depth chart.
05:59Just give him get back to basics.
06:01Give him, you know, a few certain packages that he's part of just to sort of reset him.
06:08I would put KJ Bourne, excuse me, KJ Osborne.
06:14I was waiting for you to say Kendrick Osborne.
06:16That would have it.
06:17That would have come full circle.
06:18Exactly.
06:19I was getting there.
06:21I would put KJ Osborne out there.
06:23I know he hasn't been great, but he's a very professional receiver.
06:28He does what he's supposed to do.
06:30He blocks really well.
06:31I still don't think Kendrick Bourne's at a point where he's ready for a full workload.
06:36So maybe, you know, Booty and Osborne are the starters.
06:41Kendrick's next.
06:43And then Jalen Polk on defense.
06:47I think it would send a message to bench Keon White, who I think had some run gap issues
06:54in this last game to go along with his pass rush discipline and penalty problems before
06:59that.
07:00But again, you know, you're cutting off your nose to spite your face.
07:03Right.
07:04He's they don't get enough pressure as it is.
07:07He's the one guy who does get consistent pressure.
07:09So, you know, what are we really talking about?
07:11I mean, I do think Raekwon McMillan will go to the bench, as you said.
07:15Christian Ellis will get a bulk of those snaps.
07:19See Taki Taki involves more, you know, a guy that I think that you could talk about benching
07:28or reducing his role.
07:29Kyle Duggar.
07:30Do I think that's ever going to happen?
07:32Not in a million years.
07:35And so really, that's about it.
07:37I don't think there's a whole lot of changes that they can make to all of a sudden makes,
07:42you know, sort of shock the locker room into, OK, you know, our jobs are on the line, all
07:48that stuff.
07:49I just don't think that stuff's going on down there.
07:51It's crazy to think that this is week seven and we'll see the seventh different offensive
07:56line combination this season start a football game.
07:59The injuries have been borderline comical.
08:03These guys just can't find continuity up front and it's killing them.
08:07I'm not telling you they'd be great or terrible.
08:08I don't know.
08:09But the envisioned offensive line never came close to coming to fruition from what we saw
08:14in camp when they went 11 straight practices with, you know, low at left tackle chooks
08:20at right tackle a one who at right guard and David Andrews at center and city.
08:25So at left guard, it's just an abomination of throwing guys in there and waiver claims.
08:32And this dude was claimed in fourth left tackle and it's it's it's maddening.
08:37As far as the changes, Greg, how about scheme wise?
08:39I think, you know, you look offensively.
08:42I've talked about this.
08:43I believe you've talked about this.
08:44Andrew Callahan has talked about this.
08:47Pop Douglas is this team's best receiver.
08:50But the issue they're running into is that their most efficient offensive grouping is
08:5512 personnel.
08:56They don't want to play pop and 12 personnel because he's not a big dude.
08:59He's not going to block, et cetera, et cetera.
09:03Could we see them move to more 11 personnel and maybe last week's fumble from Austin
09:07Hooper and the fact that, you know, he hasn't made a huge difference in many of these games?
09:12The two plays that I remember the most is, you know, him blowing the block on the field
09:17goal attempt and him fumbling the football last week.
09:21Could we see more 11 personnel from Van Pelt on Sunday?
09:26You know, I guess we could.
09:28You know, my issue with that would be that I think making that kind of move is a little
09:34bit fantasy football to me is like, you know, yeah, pops their most productive receiver
09:40and all that.
09:41But, you know, you got to start with, all right, how do we how do we move the ball?
09:47How do we want to move the ball?
09:48How do we protect our quarterback?
09:50I mean, I this team really needs to get back to being a run focused team.
09:55And I do think that that Drake May and his legs can factor into that.
10:00I think we'll see this this week with Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.
10:05You know, we're going to talk about the Jaguars more in a minute, but, you know, for all their
10:09difficulties, I do think they have a pretty nifty offense.
10:13I mean, I do think they also have a very dumb team that is prone to dumb mistakes and penalties.
10:18There's going to be a lot of like mirror images in this game.
10:23You know, in a lot of different ways.
10:25Great.
10:26Yeah.
10:27So it should be a fun watch on Sunday morning.
10:31You know, so, but I think given the line issues and you're going to have even more this week
10:36where you're going to have to, well, at least you can, I mean, you could say, all right,
10:40this week, cause we're bumping Mike out to right tackle.
10:43We don't need to help him against what's his name?
10:48Walker, Trevon Walker.
10:50You know, we're going to have to help DeMontre.
10:52So all right, one tight end, but are we, who are we sending out?
10:56I just think I understand the sentiment by Andrew and others.
11:01And I, in theory, it makes sense.
11:03I just think where they are and how they, I want to actually see them keep the tight
11:09ends more, more chips, especially on third down predictable passing situations.
11:17You know, I'm not really worried about, you know, the first two downs and whether pops
11:22out there, I'm, I'm worried about protecting Drake may a little bit more protecting this
11:26offensive line.
11:27And to me, you still gotta be a, a heavier 12 personnel team.
11:31I mean, I, I wouldn't mind seeing them.
11:33I don't know where he is on, if he's on the practice squad or not.
11:38I just had that up.
11:40Oh, the tight end, you're going to give me a Jaheim bell here.
11:44No, not Jaheim.
11:47I'm going to give you a Mitchell Wilcox who got promoted, well, I'd rather him just block
11:56like put them over there next to next to Durante Jacobs and let's see what happens.
12:01But I will say for all the talk about last week and Drake, Drake's debut and everything,
12:05I, you know, I don't know if we mentioned this, but you know, the, the, the pressure
12:11rate was like 35%.
12:13It was much less than the season average, which was over 45%.
12:17And Drake even factored into some of that pressure on some of the sacks and everything.
12:22So maybe they're feeling better about it and can get a little, you know, looser with the
12:29pass protection and get Jaheim bell out there instead of a Mitchell Wilcox.
12:32But we'll have to see Cleveland, not Cleveland.
12:37Sorry.
12:38I wrote Cleveland down in my notes because both teams have stunk this year.
12:41Jacksonville has been in London, uh, the last two weeks, Greg, of course, the Patriots had
12:46a fly over.
12:47They got in at about 2 AM.
12:49Do the travel differences make an impact, a big impact, slight impact?
12:54What do you think?
12:55Oh, I think it has to, um, I mean, you know, to be over there for the whole week.
13:01I mean, I think there was some chatter and I don't know exactly what, what went down
13:05something about like, uh, you know, with the hurricanes, like the Jaguars ended up like
13:09leaving Florida late for London.
13:12And there's some people who think that contributed to the way they played against the bears.
13:16Um, you know, I don't, unless the Jaguars are at each other's throats and there's been,
13:23you know, talk about players quitting and you know, all that stuff and, and Doug Peterson,
13:28you know, unless they're miserable and at each other's throats, which could make that
13:32being over there together for a whole week, even worse.
13:35I've seen that before.
13:36I've been, I've covered teams like the dolphins in 2004, we're saying in San Francisco for
13:42a week.
13:43And I think during that time, Dave Wonstack got fired and Jim Bates was the interim coach.
13:50So that was an interesting time.
13:53Um, you know, if they're, if they're miserable and that they're teetering on the brink of
13:59a self implosion, then this is going to be bad them staying over there.
14:04But if there's still a chance for them to put things together.
14:07And for what I see on film, I do think there's a chance of that, then this could be really
14:11good and it could be a disadvantage for the Patriots.
14:15One last one before we get to the actual game here.
14:17I want to ask you, uh, Devante Adams, Amari Cooper were dealt this week, Cooper to the
14:23bills, Adams to the jets, which was the most predictable trade of all time.
14:27The trade deadline is November 5th.
14:29I know some Patriots fans are feeling froggy out there, Greg, do you think the Patriots
14:33going to feel froggy and pull a deal off?
14:37So I've been asking about that.
14:39Um, uh, do I think they're going to be sellers?
14:41Um, in some respects, I mean, I think, you know, some of the, uh, limited pieces, remember
14:47even in the off season, you know, as far as, you know, what do they do is at different
14:52positions and bringing people in.
14:53We always talked about, all right, they're, they're trying to get the, the nucleus of
14:58a team together.
14:59And that means younger players with term going forward.
15:04And you know, if you sort of look at their roster, um, we already know Taekwon Thornton's
15:09available.
15:10I think we're, I think we all agree.
15:12There's not really a future here for him.
15:15Um, I don't know what you'd get back for him, you know, a six or seventh round pick, um,
15:20pick swaps are big these days.
15:22Uh, we, we heard the other day, and this isn't a surprise.
15:26Mike Lombardi said that Joshua Uche is available for a fifth round pick.
15:30He's on a one-year deal, very manageable money.
15:33Um, you know, if I'm, if I'm a team like the lions that just lost Aiden Hutchinson, Uche
15:39would be a guy I would come calling for just a guy who just rushes the passer.
15:44And he, you know, that's, that's a guy, Nick, that I wanted to mention that, um, I wouldn't
15:49be shocked if he was inactive for this game.
15:52I mean, he, he hasn't really had much of a role.
15:54He's done a right in this role, but you know, if they want to keep them healthy for the
15:59trade deadline, you know, maybe he's inactive on Sunday and that's sort of a tip off that,
16:04you know, they're getting closer to a deal.
16:07Um, you know, I think guys like KJ Osborne, Kendrick Bourne, I would be, you know, maybe
16:13this has been him getting back has been sort of a showcase.
16:16We know the Patriots, uh, we're going to throw them into the trade potential trade for Brandon
16:21Iuke.
16:22Um, could the 49ers or chiefs or somebody come calling for Bourne?
16:27Um, I think that's definitely possible, um, on defense aside from Uche, Jonathan Jones
16:36would be a guy I think that would have some appeal across the league for people who are
16:41a little bit short on cornerbacks.
16:42Now, you know, on the other, the flip side, could the Patriots find any talent to bring
16:49in?
16:50Um, I think you're going to, in theory, it makes sense, but I think you're also looking
16:57at a similar situation where, you know, those teams that are similar to the Patriots, one
17:02in five sort of out of it, um, you know, they don't want to give up.
17:07And I've been asking about this, like nobody wants to give up their young talent.
17:10Oh, you know, a lot of these GMs who want to say the coach is going to get fired and
17:14want to argue for their job.
17:17Giving away some of your decent young talent is not a way to do that.
17:20So that, that doesn't really happen very much.
17:23Again, you're looking at older guys on short term and you know, if I'm the Patriots, I'm
17:29only doing it if I know ahead of time that this guy will sign X extension to say here
17:35for the next two years beyond this year, uh, so that we know we're getting something and
17:40you also don't want to get into giving up draft picks.
17:43I mean, like I have, for example, somebody tweeted at me and asked me about Deontay Johnson
17:47on the Carolina Panthers, the wide receiver.
17:49Um, I love Deontay Johnson.
17:52He's on my fantasy team.
17:53He started to be productive since, uh, uh, the red rifle got in there.
17:57Um, so that's been really good, but, um, you know, what are you going to give up for him?
18:03I mean, what are the Panthers going to want?
18:05What's, uh, uh, the GM there, the former player, um, Morgan and Morgan.
18:10Yeah.
18:11If you're Dan Morgan, who just got into this job right now, you just hired a new head coach.
18:16You know, if you're going to trade off a decent young wide receiver, you're going to want
18:20to get something you're, I don't know, second, you know, maybe at best probably a third round
18:24and then a pick swap.
18:26But if you're the Patriots, aren't you just saying to yourself, don't I want to draft
18:31my own guy?
18:32And again, anytime you get into these trades, we saw it with a core four in terms of signings.
18:38Anytime you start getting guys from outside your own building, you're running the risk
18:43of not knowing them and not knowing what makes them tick and that could be a bust.
18:48So I, I could see the Patriots selling off a few pieces.
18:52I would be shocked, not shocked.
18:54I would be surprised if they found, um, a willing team to give them a future building
19:00block.
19:01We'll get into the game this Sunday, coming up in a minute, but first Greg tells you about
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19:26with as little as four correct picks.
19:29They're running a bonus.
19:30I love these little bonuses, little free square, and I am using it for this Sunday, even though
19:34it's basketball.
19:37Anthony Edwards just needs to score one point for that square to win NBA opening night,
19:41October 22nd.
19:43So when we get all our correct picks on the Patriots game, we just have to wait for Anthony
19:48Edwards to score one point on the 22nd and we can watch the winnings roll in.
19:53So my picks for this week, and I feel a little bit better this week than I did certainly
20:00last week.
20:01I don't know what to make of, or last week was okay, but Jalen Polk killed us.
20:07So we got the Anthony Edwards free square.
20:10The Mario Douglas more than 47 and a half receiving yards.
20:13I think that this is a, uh, with the lack of discipline on this Jaguars defense, I think
20:18pops going to be able to find some openings with Drake, especially on the move.
20:22I have Drake May more than I was going to go rushing total, but I decided to go more
20:28than 225 and a half passing and rushing yards.
20:32I think Caleb Williams rushed for 47 yards last week against these Jaguars.
20:39I think this is, they didn't do a much last week.
20:41I think this is the week they take advantage of Drake's, um, legs, but I also think he's
20:46going to find some passing yards and, and I have Hunter Henry and I actually just realized
20:53I clicked the wrong box, but okay.
20:57Hunter Henry, less than seven fantasy score.
20:59I have a moment fantasy team.
21:00I think it's actually going to be more than seven.
21:02So make you make sure you don't make my mistake.
21:05Go more than seven fantasy points on Hunter Henry.
21:09Uh, I have Evan Ingram, the Jaguars tight end for more than 39 and a half receiving
21:15yards.
21:15I don't love the Patriots, uh, past coverage over the middle.
21:19Ingram's really good.
21:20He had a boneheaded, uh, fumble last week, but he's a matchup problem.
21:25And I have Trevor Lawrence more than a half interception because he's a little
21:31sloppy with the ball as much as I love Trevor, a little sloppy download the prize
21:35picks app today and use code CLNS and get $50 instantly.
21:38When you play $5, that's code CLNS on prize picks to get $50 instantly.
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21:50All right, let's get to the Patriots defense versus Jack's offense.
21:53Lots of talent on this Jaguars team, which is weird to say for a team that's one in
21:57five, but they are more talented than the Patriots.
22:00Uh, you got BTJ, Kirk Davis, Ingram, uh, on, on the offensive side.
22:06How much though, Greg, when you look at this team, because of course, when you
22:11have a team that's one in five and you had a quarterback that was drafted number
22:14one overall, and he has not necessarily lit the world on fire, especially
22:19compared to his expectations.
22:20But in reality, when you watch this team, how much of the offensive
22:24inconsistencies are on Lawrence and how much of the offensive
22:28inconsistencies are on the other guys?
22:31I would say, well, I'll put it this way.
22:34I think that Trevor definitely shares in it.
22:37Um, there are, he reminds me a lot of, um, the more I've watched them
22:41and I haven't watched them a ton.
22:42I mean, it's the Jaguars.
22:43Why would I watch the Jaguars?
22:45But I did watch the film against the bears and it seems similar to some of the other
22:49things that I've seen over the years.
22:51He reminds me a bit of Andrew Luck, which is, and I think basically Trevor
22:56Lawrence was talked about as sort of the next generational
23:00quarterback since Andrew Luck.
23:02And you know, Andrew Luck, and I don't know how people remember him, but in
23:08actuality, you know, Andrew Luck was really good and he was really athletic
23:13and he could run and really played smart most of the time.
23:19But to me, I thought he just made too many mistakes.
23:21There were too many, too many interceptions, too many strip sacks.
23:27Um, I, I just didn't, I think he was a really good quarterback who may be in
23:31a better, with better surrounding talent and better coaching could
23:35have been an all time great.
23:37Uh, but, and I see that sort of with Trevor Lawrence.
23:40Now I would put, he's certainly part of the problem.
23:43He threw up a terrible interception.
23:45I don't know what he was looking at, um, last week against the bears.
23:49It was very similar route concept to what we're going to see, what we see
23:52a lot of with the Patriots, you know, spot routes and, you know, little slants
23:57over the middle, like typical West coast stuff, and he threw it
24:01like right to the linebacker.
24:02I don't know what he was looking at, but you see, you see spurts of that in games.
24:07Um, you know, he also makes some tremendous throws.
24:12Um, I still think he's, he, he can run, he throws the ball really well.
24:17I would say his accuracy on the most part is pretty good.
24:21Um, and I, I liked Doug Peterson's offensive system.
24:25They will scheme up a lot in the run game in the past game.
24:29I just think there's just that, that whole outfit is inconsistent.
24:35I don't think that they're very smart.
24:37Um, you know, like I said about the Ingram fumble, I mean, that
24:40was, they, they opened up the second half.
24:42He's like, you know, wide open at 24 yard gain.
24:44And he just, he fumbles the ball and he doesn't need to, he was fighting
24:47for more yards and just put the team in a terrible spot.
24:51I mean, you see some of the young wide receivers, you know, with some
24:54route issues, some drop issues.
24:57Um, but you know, I think that, I think that they're going to, I think
25:02that this Jaguars offense is going to pose problems for the Patriots.
25:06Peterson over the years has kind of had the number of the Patriots defense.
25:10And we know it's a little different.
25:12Bill's not here anymore.
25:13Remember what he did in the Superbowl with the Eagles?
25:16Um, you know, in my mind, it seems like that the Jaguars offense with Peterson,
25:21as long as he's been there has always been, uh, decent against the Patriots.
25:25I think he understands the rules of this defense.
25:27So that scares me along with their extra prep time being over there in London.
25:32Um, I love Bigsby the running back cause ETN is dealing with a hamstring injury.
25:38He practiced the other day.
25:40Is he going to be an answer to the bell?
25:41I don't know.
25:42He's a dynamic talent out of the backfield, but I think that tank
25:46Bigsby, uh, is a type of guy.
25:48He's a workhorse that can do inside outside.
25:52He's tough to, uh, break down and the wider seat, the rookie wide
25:56receiver, Brian Thomas, a guy I loved in the pre-draft process.
25:59Um, it would have been a guy that I would have loved to see the Patriots
26:03get and pair with Drake may, if they could have traded up for him.
26:06I don't think that was in the cards, but I can't wait.
26:09I want to see Gonzalez against Brian Thomas because that's two really
26:12talented young guys who could be really good for years to come.
26:16Um, Ingram's good.
26:18I think their offensive line is pretty good for the most part, right?
26:21Tackle Anton Harrison is sort of the weak link over there, but I I'm, I'm
26:27a little fearful for this matchup for the Patriots defense against the Jaguars.
26:30Cause I do think they're pretty good.
26:32It just, it's just a matter of the Jaguars just limit their mistakes.
26:36If they play mistake free, this is going to be a tough game.
26:40A couple of thoughts, uh, the wide receivers, uh, the issue for the
26:44Patriots, I think, especially aside from the natural talent, but the last
26:49time we saw the Patriots play against a team that had bigger wide receivers
26:53in the past, try to go, man, they got smoked and it was Aaron Rogers.
26:57Of course, different world than Trevor Lawrence, but it was, Hey, look, if
27:01you're going to play man against our wide receivers, you guys don't have
27:05the biggest corners in the world.
27:07We're going to get rid of the football quickly.
27:09And we're just going to let the wide receivers make some plays with their
27:11size and Gabe Davis is six to Brian Thomas jr.
27:15Is six foot three.
27:16So you could see some elements of that play out on Sunday morning.
27:19The other thing is the run game, Greg of Jacksonville.
27:23It's interesting.
27:24They're they're a 12th and success rate in the league.
27:27And they're actually second and yards per carry.
27:30But when you look at the details, it's not really the offensive line.
27:34I go back to like week one where the Patriots had a great
27:37rushing attack against Cincy.
27:39And a lot of people looked at the, you know, yards after contact stuff.
27:43I mean, the Jags, they have the fourth worst yards before
27:47contact per carry in the league.
27:49So they're running backs are getting hit pretty quickly under one
27:52yard, 0.85 yards is when they get that contact.
27:56So what's going on?
27:57Well, if you look at, if you look at their rushing yards after contact,
28:02their first in the league, they're averaging four and a half yards
28:05per carry after contact their third and rush yards over expected.
28:09So that tells me they're running backs are making plays.
28:12So you got to watch out for that.
28:14Those are two things.
28:16I have them as a, as sixth, uh, offensive total rush EPA.
28:23They're 26 and pass.
28:24So like, you know, for a Patriots team, that's, um, sort of been dealing
28:29with some issues on the ground.
28:31You know, this is, uh, you know, you, you're a little bit
28:35fearful of what might happen.
28:37All right.
28:37Before we get to the Patriots offense and Drake may, uh, against this
28:40Jags defense, Greg, tell the fine people all about our friends at game time.
28:46The NBA season is here.
28:49Love to be there.
28:50I know Nick does got to be there in person.
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30:32What time is it?
30:33Game time.
30:35It's Drake May time for the second straight week.
30:38He gets to start against Jacksonville in London.
30:41Uh, I'll say it again, Jaguars defense.
30:43They do have some talent, but man, oh man, they have awful, awful
30:46numbers against the past, Greg.
30:48I mean, you look up and down 30th and pressure rate 31st and pass rush
30:52win rate 30th and EPA play action.
30:56Uh, 32nd and total DVO a 32nd and EPA per drop back.
31:01Uh, they have been absolutely thrashed through the air.
31:05What's, what's the problem for them defensively, uh, against.
31:09Quarterbacks.
31:11They are, you're absolutely right.
31:14They are talented.
31:15Um, they have a couple of, uh, really good as Ed rushers and
31:19Trevon Walker and, uh, Josh now Heinz Allen on the edge.
31:24Um, not much on the defensive interior.
31:27Um, you have Devin Lloyd at linebacker.
31:31The safeties aren't much what I see, Nick, and a lot of this
31:34is based off the bears game.
31:36Um, they are completely undisciplined and overaggressive.
31:41Um, so that's the good part.
31:45Um, my question is, and we saw the bears take advantage of this.
31:49Um, and you know, not to get sort of philosophical here as far as, and
31:53I hope people can follow me on this.
31:54So, you know, we heard all the talk about Alex van Pelt wanted to install
31:58the wide zone and the boot action.
32:00And basically the point of that is to get the offense or
32:03the defense going side to side.
32:05And I'm actually, I've started to, I've started to read the book by, um,
32:09Michael Silver about, uh, Kyle Shanahan, which is, um, fascinating.
32:14And if you, if you want to know about sort of the origins of the wide zone,
32:18there's a lot of talk about Mike Shanahan and how he sort of took the
32:21West coast to the next level, but be that as it may, um, but I do recommend the book.
32:25So far, it's a very interesting read.
32:27Um, if you want to see how the NFL got here to where they are on offense.
32:32Um, but so we, we saw them wanting to do this and that it's definitely
32:38in theory, it's definitely a good thing to do.
32:41And it opens up thing in the passing game, opens up things in the running game,
32:45you know, and we saw the bears last week.
32:49If you watch them on film, they were doing, it was all wide zone back and
32:53forth, like, you know, that's what they were doing and the Jaguars
32:58are just over pursuing this way.
33:00They're leaving gaps.
33:02So, you know, the way Alex van Pelt started this season, you would say,
33:07okay, well, this is a good matchup.
33:09The Patriots can take advantage of this.
33:10The problem is, is because of the difficulties on the offensive line,
33:14they've had to abandon all of that because they, they, all the pieces are changing.
33:18You need to work on wide zone is all about, you know, timing and execution.
33:24And when you have different guys in there and guys who don't really fit like
33:27Michael winning, what right tackle doesn't fit Ben Brown at center.
33:31Now doesn't fit as far as the running game.
33:33He's fine.
33:34He's really good in pass pro.
33:36Um, you know, the Demontre Jacobs at left tackle, not an ideal fit.
33:41Now, Michael Jordan at left guard, he's probably their best wide zone guy.
33:45But the, the point is the Patriots right now, aren't, aren't spreading
33:50the field horizontally in the run game or the pass game, which is
33:53what the bears did a great job of.
33:54They stress the Jaguars.
33:56They exploited the Jaguars.
33:58The Patriots are now playing basically in like a phone booth, the
34:01way that they're playing right now.
34:03And so yes, the Jaguars have had a lot of issues in the secondary.
34:08I do think that there will be some things there for the Patriots.
34:11It's just, they have to figure out, all right, well, how are
34:13we going to take advantage of it?
34:14I mean, I think one way to do it.
34:16And we did see it last week with the bears.
34:20They're going to have to involve Drake may in the running game.
34:22I think this is, this is more of an RPO game.
34:25That's one way you can do it without doing the wide zone.
34:28I, I, if I were Alex van Pelt, I would run this game almost
34:32probably exclusively RPO.
34:34I think it takes advantage of Drake may.
34:35I think it gets the Jaguars moving around and falling for things that
34:40aren't there and play action.
34:42Um, you know, but I do think that I think that Drake May's legs will be
34:47a lot more active in this game.
34:49And if that doesn't happen, you know, I, I don't know how much the
34:54Patriots are going to be able to duplicate sort of what the, what
34:57the bears did the week before.
35:01You look at the offensive line too.
35:02You, you mentioned this earlier.
35:03Oh, I knew moving back to right tackle.
35:05It looks like Jacob's at left tackle.
35:07You're going against those dangerous defensive ends.
35:10Hopefully.
35:11Uh, I, I mean, I'm, I'm just, I'm tired of saying it.
35:16I'm tired of hoping, but for the love of all that is holy on this earth, Alex
35:24van Pelt actually helps Jacobs at left tackle this weekend.
35:28More often than he has in the past, especially on third down.
35:32Yeah.
35:32Um, but I have no hope of that because van Pelt has stunk at doing so.
35:39Um, so when you, when you look at what they could do, you just mentioned
35:42the RPO stuff may with his legs, of course, the knee injury, you
35:46know, how much does that play?
35:47Will that impact Alex van Pelt's play calling?
35:49Will he want to utilize may less, uh, with those kinds of designed
35:53runs and, and some of those other things that we talked about, we'll
35:57have to wait and see, but I think everybody wants to know Greg against
36:00this defense, what should, what should the reasonable expectations
36:05be for may on Sunday morning?
36:09Well, I mean, you know, look, and let me also point out that, um, if, if
36:14I'm Alex van Pelt, along with the RPOs, um, I'm using multiple trick plays
36:19in this game, um, you know, this is the type of dumb ass defense that
36:24does he have those Greg does Alex van Pelt have trick place because we
36:28have talked about the lack of creativity is, is he going to bust?
36:31I mean, is, is, is, uh, is his trick play bag from like the 1960s?
36:35Is that what we're going to see?
36:36Or are we going to see?
36:37I mean, we did have that lateral, you know, but, uh, you know, I want to see,
36:43I want to see some cool, like, you know, double reverses and, you know, uh, you
36:48know, all that kind of stuff and, you know, I wouldn't mind seeing, you know,
36:52if it's Ramond Ray or Antonio Gibson, a halfback pass, you know, maybe back to
36:57may or something like it, this is a type of game against this type of defense
37:01where, look, if you can't get a moving sideline to sideline with your run game,
37:06which I don't think they're going to be able to do, then you're going to have
37:10to, you know, pull everything out of the bag and, you know, I don't know what
37:13you're waiting for and, you know, help your quarterback out.
37:16But as far as may, you know, I just want to see may, I just want
37:20to see may limit the mistakes.
37:22I want to see him, you know, be a little bit more accurate.
37:26The decision-making, you know, I, I, you know, I thought last week was
37:30a good, solid start for Drake may.
37:33We certainly saw the play, uh, the, the playmaking ability.
37:36I'll be interested from now on to see now that it's on film, how
37:40do teams start to play him?
37:41Are they going to spy him more?
37:43Um, you know, I had an NFL source told me that they thought the Texans were
37:47sort of screwing around at certain points in that game with sort of their man
37:51coverage, even on like the booty touchdown, like, you know, why would
37:54you do man coverage, you know, with the safety all the way on the
37:57other side of the field?
37:58So I'll be interested to see if the Jaguars, you know, make may beat them
38:03and make them go down the field.
38:04Um, but I, you know, I just want to see, I just want to see improvement.
38:08I want to see him to be more comfortable, you know, every game.
38:11So if he makes 11 plus plays, like he did last week, that's awesome.
38:16Now let's get the, the mistakes to more in like the 11, 10 range.
38:21And all of a sudden we're talking, we're talking something.
38:24So I just want to see him make, make progress every week.
38:27All right.
38:28We got your pick coming up.
38:29But first to tell you, BSJ 50 bucks for the year.
38:32Incredible work by, uh, but Darden Giardi.
38:34So check those guys out.
38:36Also, we've told you about prize picks.
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38:43Greg also told you about game time.
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38:51All right.
38:51This week's pick, Greg, we look at the record so far for you and I.
38:55How about that?
38:56Grammar stick that in your pipe and smoke it.
38:58Uh, I'm four and two on the season against the spread.
39:01Greg is three, two, and one.
39:03We are both four and two straight up.
39:05Interesting number this week.
39:07You know, you go back to last week, the Texans were six and a half point
39:11favorites and the Texans are seen as a much better team than Jags, but yet
39:14you've got the Jags as six point favorites in this game in London.
39:17The over under is 42 and a half.
39:20I ask you old sage of the football world, Greg, but Dard what's your pick, bro.
39:27So I do not have a good feeling.
39:30I don't have a strong feeling either way on this game.
39:33I can't believe how the line, first of all, it opened at four and a
39:36half and now it's up to six.
39:38And, you know, you know, this betting world more than I do.
39:41I don't know what would be, does that say anything to you?
39:43Like, is it just that the, is the money coming in on the Patriots and they're
39:49trying to get more people or is it the opposite?
39:54Uh, well, when, when you got money coming in, that, that
39:58absolutely sways the line.
39:59So if, if the Jaguars were, you know, four and a half point favorites and
40:04now there are six point favorites.
40:06Uh, I, I think that would tell me the Patriots, we're getting some of that
40:10money, um, but I could be totally wrong on that, the ins and outs of those
40:14kinds of things, I get confused by them.
40:16So I apologize to everybody out there, but I'm as confused
40:19as Greg, some of that stuff.
40:20We're easily confused on this pod.
40:22I think that's the bottom line.
40:23Um, I just love us or hate us.
40:26You know what, look, would I be surprised if the Jaguars
40:30blew out the Patriots?
40:31No.
40:31Would I be surprised that the Patriots blew out the Jaguars?
40:34No.
40:35And Doug Peterson's fired.
40:36I'm coming back from London now.
40:40So, um, and I ha as you could tell, I haven't given this a lot of thought.
40:44I wrote down the point spread and all that, but I didn't really
40:46think about what my pick would be.
40:48I six points is just too much to me.
40:52So I think the Jaguars win the game.
40:56I think they saved Doug Peterson's job for a week.
40:59I think it, I'm going to go, uh, Jaguars
41:0727 Patriots, 24.
41:13So you got Jags 27, 24.
41:17Before I get to my pick, I have an example here.
41:21If the Kansas city chiefs were minus three and a half in a game.
41:24And then three days later they were minus five.
41:28The line moved from three and a half to five.
41:31That means the Ravens became a bigger dog.
41:33In this case, it's likely that a lot of people bet on the
41:36chiefs when the line opened.
41:40Yeah.
41:41So there you have it when the line goes, so people putting money on the Jags.
41:46And then it moved up to six because people said they're way too much, you
41:50know, that's way too easy of a favorite.
41:52That makes sense.
41:53I feel exactly the same as you do about this game.
41:56I hate predicting this game with every fiber of my being.
42:02The Jaguars could be like, look, we're out, you know, Cisco, uh, not the
42:06dude that used to jump around and have the dragon as his logo back in the day.
42:10The thong song.
42:10Is that what he did?
42:12Not the, not the thong song guy, but Andre Cisco said last week that
42:16he saw a lot of quit from the team.
42:18Uh, so there's a lot of people angry at Doug Peterson in Jacksonville right now.
42:24Uh, they thought they had a good team.
42:26They thought they should be there in the hunt for a playoff spot.
42:29They're one in five with their season about the tank.
42:32I don't know what to expect from the Jaguars.
42:34I mean, do they, are they like, geez, we've been out here in London for two
42:37weeks, you know, this team's not good enough, we don't like the coach.
42:42Dudes are quitting.
42:43They just made a trade this past week for a sixth round pick in 2026.
42:47They're selling pieces off.
42:49So where are they mentally?
42:51Because if they're not there mentally, you're going to see a ton of mistakes
42:53again, and a ton of undisciplined play for the Patriots.
42:58I mean, now you've got a week of film on may you're making
43:02the travel over to London.
43:04Uh, you have all of the stuff that continues to happen with bar more.
43:07Uh, it's so it's just, this game is really difficult to pick.
43:13Uh, I'm going with the Patriots.
43:16I'm going 24, 20.
43:18So same kind of range as you, as far as points go.
43:22So we, we both bet the over.
43:24So I guess the takeaway from this is if you're going to take a bet, take the
43:26over because Greg and I think there's going to be some points scored, but I'm
43:30just, I think may we'll make some more plays than Lawrence will.
43:33And it's not necessarily because may is better than Lawrence.
43:36It's because of the outfit.
43:37So I think this is the week that the Patriots put some things together and
43:41that they come away with the w a 24, 20.
43:43Am I confident held to the note?
43:45I am not confident in that pick.
43:47Uh, so that'll do it folks.
43:49Hopefully you learned a lot today.
43:51If you didn't, maybe you were entertained.
43:53If you weren't, we apologize.
43:55We'll try to get better.
43:56He's Greg omnic.
43:58The weather's going to be great this weekend in new England.
44:00Enjoy it.
44:00We'll talk to you early next week about this game.
44:02Hopefully it doesn't suck.

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