Mike Giardi and Will Parkinson bring you the final preseason playoff picks before the NFL kicks off on Thursday night! Tune in for the sleepers, the busts, and everything in between as the guys lock in their 2024 winners.
0:00 - Intro
1:00 - NFL Regular Season
4:00 - Chiefs vs Ravens
6:32 - Chiefs pressure discussion
8:20 - Chiefs offensive strategy
10:26 - Derrick Henry's potential
12:18 - Henry's performance expectations
14:38 - Importance of home field
19:53 - AFC Championship prediction
22:42 - Wild Card predictions
24:50 - Chiefs vs Jets matchup
30:09 - Atlanta winning NFC South
34:34 - Playoff predictions
38:30 - Comeback Player of the Year
40:02 - Coach of the Year
41:40 - Jayden Daniels argument
44:46 - Defensive Player of the Year
47:06 - Offensive Player of the Year
48:55 - CeeDee Lamb prediction
52:25 - Stafford bold prediction
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0:00 - Intro
1:00 - NFL Regular Season
4:00 - Chiefs vs Ravens
6:32 - Chiefs pressure discussion
8:20 - Chiefs offensive strategy
10:26 - Derrick Henry's potential
12:18 - Henry's performance expectations
14:38 - Importance of home field
19:53 - AFC Championship prediction
22:42 - Wild Card predictions
24:50 - Chiefs vs Jets matchup
30:09 - Atlanta winning NFC South
34:34 - Playoff predictions
38:30 - Comeback Player of the Year
40:02 - Coach of the Year
41:40 - Jayden Daniels argument
44:46 - Defensive Player of the Year
47:06 - Offensive Player of the Year
48:55 - CeeDee Lamb prediction
52:25 - Stafford bold prediction
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SportsTranscript
00:00It is caught! Touchdown!
00:04The New England Patriots select Drake May.
00:08He's got the ball! And that's the ball game!
00:12All right, Will, here we go. It is the first week of the NFL regular season.
00:18We've lived through the offseason, which was fun.
00:20The preseason, which, you know, sometimes it's a little bit long in the tooth.
00:24But here we are, game week. We've got a game on Thursday night.
00:27You and I are recording this on Tuesday afternoon.
00:29The All-32 pod, Mike Giardi, Will Parkinson alongside.
00:33Just, it's an awesome time.
00:35It's not quite like Christmas, but it's pretty close.
00:38I'd argue it might be better.
00:40No, it's an exciting time of year.
00:42We obviously finally have some real games to talk about.
00:44We've gone through each division.
00:46We've talked about some of the hold-ins, the hold-outs,
00:49preseason performances, rookie quarterbacks, coaches under pressure,
00:52the whole nine yards. We're getting a good rhythm here.
00:55We're rocking and rolling, but obviously no better time of year right now
00:58than regular season September.
01:00Playoff baseball is coming up, the NFL regular season.
01:03We are locked and loaded.
01:05You've got playoff baseball. We're not going to have that in Boston yet again
01:08as they continue to treat this team like they're a small market team.
01:11A reminder that this show is brought to you by PrizePix,
01:14the exclusive daily fantasy partner of CLNS Media Network.
01:17And game time, best tickets, best prices to get you in to see any event you want to see.
01:23We use it. We use them both.
01:25That's why we stand behind them, so you want to use them as well if you want ease.
01:29We've got a lot to do today, and we're going to just blast right through it.
01:32But first, we've got to get to the news of the day.
01:34San Francisco, there was a period of time where the Jets,
01:37who play San Francisco in San Francisco on Monday night football,
01:41looked like maybe they were going to avoid Brandon Ayuk,
01:43Trent Williams, and Christian McCaffrey.
01:46Now, definitely are going to see Ayuk.
01:48Looks like you're going to see McCaffrey. He's back playing.
01:50And now, apparently, Trent Williams close to a deal.
01:53And, look, at the left tackle position, they could probably plug and play him tomorrow.
01:58Yeah. Look, Dale, it sounds like, you know, we talked about this for a while.
02:00There was no guaranteed money left on Trent Williams' deal,
02:03especially not any guaranteed money next year.
02:05There was a, you know, it's a huge cap hit.
02:07I think it was like $36 million or $37 million next year.
02:10But, you know, almost $20 million of it the Niners could have freed themselves.
02:14You know, hey, this year doesn't go great.
02:16You know, Trent looks his age, which he has not for the last 15 years.
02:19But, you know, the 11-time Pro Bowler, hey, maybe, you know,
02:22if the wheels fall off this year and he's not good,
02:24the Niners had no cap space in the future, they could just cut him.
02:27So, he's obviously held out.
02:28I think there's some, a little bit of, hey,
02:30didn't want to have to practice throughout the last five weeks,
02:33especially in his, you know, his late 30s here.
02:35So, the deal looks like it's close to getting done.
02:37His brother posted the Instagram getting on the private jet
02:40with the money signs at, you know, 3 a.m. this morning.
02:42So, always fun. The NFL is never easy.
02:45And then you mentioned Brandon Ayuk.
02:46I think we all thought, and Mike, you mentioned this,
02:48I think probably more than anybody, I thought was,
02:51does he really want to leave San Francisco?
02:53Like, what does he truly want?
02:55Ends up with the $30 million, whatever it was, a year,
02:58and, you know, gets the deal for 120, you know, large guaranteed number.
03:02The Niners able to retain him.
03:03Obviously, maybe down the line, that means maybe moving off of Debo Samuel.
03:06I think it's a nice trade for the Niners based on where both guys are at.
03:10But, yeah, I think if you were a Jets fan
03:13or kind of anybody in that NFC West division,
03:15it always kind of felt like at least Trent and McCaffrey were going to be there.
03:18Ayuk obviously was a little bit up in the air.
03:20We know we talked a lot about that deal.
03:22But it kind of came down to, like, what does he truly want?
03:25And he's not the highest paid receiver,
03:27but he's certainly up close in that top five, top six range.
03:31And, you know, the Niners, there's no better place for him to try to win this year.
03:35So, yeah, I think it makes the most sense all three of these have gotten done
03:39or, you know, potentially could practice today for the first time
03:42or tomorrow for the first time all summer.
03:44Absolutely.
03:45And certainly now that they have their full complement,
03:48it obviously changes the way you look at the opener.
03:50But, again, short amount of time ramp up for these guys.
03:53And, look, Trent Waves has had injury history, you know, that hasn't been awesome.
03:57McCaffrey obviously dealing with a calf.
03:59That's never cut and dried like, oh, it's back and he's fine.
04:03No, he might be dealing with that for a while.
04:05So the question then becomes, do you want to run him out there for week one
04:08or do you want to slow play this thing thinking long term?
04:11You want to be playing your best football in January.
04:13You're going to need Christian McCaffrey and something close to 100%.
04:17I mean, no one's 100% in January, but you know what I mean in that regard.
04:21There's also the game coming up right around the corner, right?
04:24We got football.
04:25It happens to be the Chiefs and the Ravens.
04:29Obviously, a game we saw in the playoffs last year,
04:31a game that the Ravens felt like they didn't play their best
04:35and still could have won the football game.
04:37Look, I think it's a fantastic way to start off the season
04:40to have these two teams in that spotlight.
04:43Yeah, a couple of things I want to just quickly mention.
04:45Son Redick is not reported as of about 2.30 Eastern on Tuesday.
04:50Everything that kind of was being circulated
04:52was a little bit like week one reporting is going to happen.
04:54It's only Tuesday.
04:55Things could change, but obviously not looking like any movement there.
04:58And then Jamar Chase showed up.
05:01It seems like they were going to get something done.
05:04Then he shows up late to practice in street clothes
05:06and a lot of weird stuff there.
05:08They have much less time to get something done.
05:10He's, you know, in terms of him playing week one.
05:12So we'll see there.
05:14In terms of the game, I think a couple of different things come to mind.
05:17I think this is a big game for Lamar,
05:19and I don't think this is just some, oh, my God, career-defining game.
05:22But the narrative around Lamar is, you know, the playoffs,
05:27and we talked about this two weeks ago or last week, you know,
05:30on the AFC North pod of just what is Lamar, right?
05:33He's an MVP-level quarterback,
05:35one of the best regular season quarterbacks we've seen in some time.
05:38But the playoffs have not been kind to him.
05:41It kind of feels like a statement game in terms of setting the tone
05:44for his 2024 season.
05:46And it certainly feels like there's more pressure on the Ravens.
05:49Again, neither team's going to get judged until we get to January.
05:51The Chiefs, you know, obviously if they don't win the title this year,
05:53no one's going to, like, look at them begrudgingly.
05:56But they've had a tumultuous offseason.
05:58They've added a bunch of talent that people are excited about
06:00on the offensive side of the football.
06:02Hollywood Brown's not going to play in this game, obviously,
06:04because he's older.
06:05But I just look at the Ravens, and I feel like we've seen this game
06:08so many times.
06:09You've covered this game a lot up in New England.
06:11Obviously, the Patriots were in this game quite a bit.
06:13Mahomes referenced that earlier this week saying, hey –
06:17I mean, it was yesterday.
06:18But saying, hey, we got to play in one of these before we had won the title,
06:21and it was this big honor.
06:23But I just feel like the Ravens kind of going out there
06:25and in the Kansas City setting of the tone for, like, yeah,
06:28we were awesome last year, and we let it slip away.
06:31But we're back, and, like, we're just as good,
06:33even if I don't know if they're quite as good on paper,
06:36as a whole collective group could they be just as good.
06:38So, I don't know.
06:39I just – I don't feel like there's a lot of pressure on the Chiefs.
06:41I feel like this is like – I don't know.
06:42They held this game last year, and Chris Jones didn't play,
06:45and Mahomes didn't look great, and they lost to the Lions,
06:48and, like, no one cared.
06:50This kind of feels like the same situation where a lot of Ravens hype,
06:53similar to last year, a lot of Lions hype.
06:54Can you go in there and take care of business early on week one?
06:57Yeah, so I look at one of the things here is the defense coordinator,
07:00Zach Orr, who we talked about in the preview.
07:0232 years old, taken over from Mike McDonald.
07:04McDonald did a phenomenal job, but it took McDonald about eight games
07:07into his first year as D.C. with Baltimore to sort of figure out
07:11how he wanted to use the personality he had.
07:13And, obviously, the idea here is that Orr is going to continue
07:16sort of the philosophy that McDonald brought to the table,
07:19but he hasn't been coaching for very long.
07:22He's 32 years old.
07:23This is something entirely new for him.
07:25It's a big spot against Patrick Mahomes.
07:27How does he adjust during the course of the game?
07:29How does he call the game?
07:30How does he deploy some of his personnel?
07:32I think we all, you know, Kyle Hamilton's one of the 10 best football players
07:36in the world right now.
07:37And, look, he's a safety.
07:38He's not going to put up these ridiculous numbers,
07:40but, like, how's he using it?
07:41Is he going to use them as a pass rusher, a blitzer?
07:43Is he going to use them more in coverage?
07:44Is he going to use them down?
07:45Like, there's all different ways that he can deploy these pieces
07:48and try to, not that Mahomes hasn't seen pretty much everything
07:51at this point, but try to confuse or slow down Mahomes
07:54and the pace of that offense.
07:55But I'm really curious to see how he goes about it
07:58because McDonald got the maximum amount of that defense last year.
08:01They were phenomenal.
08:02Even in the playoff game that they lose to the Chiefs,
08:05two drives for Kansas City over the course of the entire game.
08:07Mahomes got a little crazy there for two drives,
08:10but then they held them down and had the offense done their job.
08:13Maybe we're talking about them being the team,
08:15the toasting the game, and raising banners and getting rings
08:18and all those sorts of things.
08:19So, I'm curious.
08:20The only question I was curious, I've seen a lot this week already
08:23and it's only Tuesday, but this could be the 2018 Chiefs offense again.
08:27They got Worthy and Brown and all this speed and these different things.
08:31Mahomes is obviously superhuman, et cetera.
08:33I don't know that maybe I'll be wrong and maybe we'll be sitting here
08:38in two or three weeks and be like, man, like, I don't know,
08:41are they going to go 15-2 and all that stuff?
08:43But I'm not there yet with that.
08:46I feel like Kelsey is like nowhere near the same player.
08:48He's amazing in the playoffs and when they need him, he's still got it.
08:51But I referenced this when we did the AFC US pod
08:54that Bill Simmons used to joke about Gronk and you put him in the garage,
08:57he's the luxury car that you get like, I don't know, 200 miles out of a year.
09:02I don't know that I'm expecting Xavier Worthy to be prime Tyreek Hill.
09:06So, I think the Chiefs are going to be awesome.
09:08We're going to talk about it in a moment with our predictions,
09:10but I'm just kind of like tentatively curious what they'll look like.
09:16Does Andy Reid kind of go back?
09:17Like, they ran the football really well last year.
09:19They made really good defense.
09:20Emma Holmes, for the most part, took care of the football
09:22and was really damn good when they needed him to be.
09:24That, to me, is the recipe to be this dominant team.
09:26I don't know if leaning on like, we're going to be 50 touchdown Emma Holmes again
09:30and we're going to try to beat teams 41-38.
09:32That doesn't feel like – it might be the fun thing,
09:34but I actually feel like the thing that makes them amazing
09:36is they can play really good defense and kind of beat the crap out of you up front.
09:40Yeah, the only comparison to be made between Worthy and Hills,
09:42they're both incredibly fast.
09:45Tyreek is built like a brick bleep house and Worthy is 165-ish pounds.
09:50I've talked about sort of my trepidation about those skinny wide receivers.
09:55What do they end up amounting to?
09:57He's had a good camp.
09:58By all accounts, it's been a good camp.
10:00I think we've seen some of the clips.
10:02He's capable of making some big plays for them,
10:05but the idea that you're going to plug him in
10:07and he's going to be something close to Tyreek Hill in 2018,
10:10I think is absolutely ludicrous.
10:12Again, now we'll have to see because now people are –
10:14Kyle Hamilton's going to try to stick his helmet right through his sternum.
10:18He's going to get those kind of hits on a slant or whatever.
10:20Can he handle that?
10:21Can he bounce back up?
10:23Or does it slow him down or knock him out completely?
10:26I think that's an interesting part of it.
10:27They're starting a rookie left tackle.
10:29Kingsley Suamitea, I think I pronounced it properly.
10:33That's a guy that I thought the Patriots should have traded up to get.
10:36Kansas City traded up to get him in the second round,
10:38and now they're turning over the left tackle job to him.
10:41That's obviously a rather important role in that offense,
10:44but it's a great front aside from him in terms of what they have,
10:47especially in the interior.
10:48If they get competent play out of him,
10:50it'll probably be an upgrade from what they got last year
10:53from the veteran Donovan Smith.
10:56You mentioned the whole Lamar thing.
11:00Shame on me.
11:01When we talked about Baltimore, I didn't bring up Derrick Henry.
11:05Look, we know that Baltimore will utilize multiple running backs.
11:10That's just how they roll.
11:12But to have that battering ram to be someone you can call upon
11:16when you get inside the five-yard line,
11:19would it surprise you this year if Derrick Henry finished with 15 touchdowns,
11:2317 touchdowns?
11:25Because Lamar does some of his work from the outside.
11:28It's Henry on the inside.
11:30I just feel like I remember watching them play the Patriots,
11:34the year the Patriots I think were undefeated going in there,
11:37and then Baltimore kind of ran them out of the building,
11:39and that was sort of the turning point for that past season,
11:41kind of went sideways.
11:43Mark Ingram was a running back then,
11:45and there was so much attention on Lamar
11:47and the way he handles the football
11:49that linebackers and ends kept getting caught peeking at him,
11:54thinking he had the ball,
11:56and he would have already handed it off to Mark Ingram,
11:58and Mark Ingram is at the second level
12:00before anybody even realizes that this is happening.
12:02Well, Mark Ingram was a tank.
12:04Derrick Henry's next-level tank, even at this point in his career.
12:07So I just feel like there's real opportunity for Henry
12:10to just kind of have one of those crazy years
12:12that we don't expect to see from a 30-something-year-old running back.
12:15Isn't this the year that Derrick Henry puts up the numbers
12:18you probably expected in the last two years,
12:20but is a far worse player?
12:21That's what it feels like.
12:23I don't think he's anywhere near the same running back.
12:25I think he's still good.
12:26I think there's not a lot of great running backs.
12:28There's that class we've talked about of McCaffrey, Hall, Bichon,
12:31and there's obviously more than that,
12:33but those are the guys that kind of come to mind,
12:35Jonathan Taylor, et cetera.
12:37I think Derrick Henry is going to take two steps back
12:39in terms of his performance from two or three years ago
12:41when the Titans went to the title game and were one seed
12:45and then losing to the Bengals in the borough,
12:47but he's going to be much more productive just because,
12:49as you mentioned, getting down by the goal line,
12:52punching a bunch of touchdowns in, a lot of lighter boxes
12:56when Lamar is cooking a little bit.
12:59I'm just interested to see how that offense rolls.
13:01New coordinators on both sides of the ball for the Ravens.
13:03As you mentioned, the Chiefs have a lot more continuity
13:06with some new pieces to integrate.
13:08Again, both teams, I think the Ravens did lose
13:11a substantial amount of talent, but I also feel like the guys
13:14that they were relying on are only going to get even better.
13:17Like Tyler Linderbaum in year three is going to be awesome,
13:20or Mark Andrews fully healthy should be awesome,
13:23or things like that, or Kyle Hamilton in year three.
13:26Yeah, that's year three.
13:28Be able to be a superstar player.
13:31As you mentioned, Derrick Henry is one of those big-name additions
13:34that we don't talk a lot about because he's not quite the same player,
13:37but I also think, as to your point, statistically it feels like,
13:41I don't know, maybe it's 1,100 yards, but it's like 14, 15 touchdowns,
13:44and you're like, a little Mostert-ish last year,
13:46where like, I don't know how great Ricky Mostert was compared,
13:50Devon Aitchen was better than him, but like, I don't know, man.
13:53Mostert had 18 touchdowns, you had 18, 20 touchdowns.
13:56It was nuts.
13:57Yeah, absolutely.
13:58Yeah, I completely agree.
14:00Baltimore's offensive line, Voorhees is getting the start at guard.
14:05Obviously, well thought of coming out of college, had the torn ACL, so this is. . .
14:09Remember when you benched at the combine, too?
14:11Yeah.
14:12That was pretty cool with the torn ACL.
14:13Yeah.
14:14That was awesome.
14:15You were like, this guy is going to be a Raven, an Eagle, one of those teams.
14:18Yeah, classic football guy, right?
14:20Like that, just hardcore.
14:21So, you know, there are some changes on the offensive line,
14:24but, you know, I just have a great amount of faith
14:28in Baltimore's overall coaching to sort of coach those guys up,
14:31and maybe, you know, obviously the expectations will look better later in the year
14:35as opposed to the beginning, but look, it's a fun game.
14:38It's, you know, that place is going to be hopping.
14:42You know, great way to kick off the year.
14:45It's probably the preview of the AFC title game for most people.
14:48For a lot of people, I should say, it's probably. . .
14:51This game does matter.
14:52As much as I know early in the season, it doesn't truly matter.
14:55Two reasons it matters.
14:56One, as we mentioned, both teams are teams that are probably vying for that one seed,
15:00which we'll get to here in a second, but also that tiebreaker of, hey,
15:03head-to-head, you know, and conference record.
15:06Like it's not. . .
15:08As much as Jets-Niners is super exciting, which we'll talk about on Friday
15:11or probably on Monday's show, that game is awesome,
15:14and it's going to be box office, and there's probably more storylines,
15:16in a sense, of like what we don't know or do know,
15:19but that game doesn't matter anywhere near as much as this game does
15:21because, as I mentioned, that's non-conference.
15:24There's a lot of. . .
15:25Like you expect the Jets to get better as the year goes on,
15:27the Niners, Super Bowl, Hangover.
15:28This is like, if the Ravens win this game and get out to a hot start,
15:32they want to host, you know, the Chiefs again.
15:34And if the Chiefs are like, I want to be back at home this year
15:36as much as it was fun last year going into Buffalo
15:38and going into Baltimore and things like that, you know. . .
15:41You don't want to make your living doing that.
15:43No, home field matters still in the NFL.
15:45I know in other places, you know, there's sports and stuff,
15:48but I still think that getting that bye, home field, et cetera, it matters.
15:54Hey, I want to remind you, PrizePix is America's number one
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16:24I mean, like, that's a no-brainer, isn't it?
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16:47And I know you're into this.
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17:18Run your game.
17:20Speaking of running your game, let's get into our postseason predictions.
17:24And, you know, I know you went through this.
17:26I had the, like, simulator.
17:28I'm picking every game, like, for 17, whatever.
17:31How many ever weeks?
17:3218 weeks we got.
17:33And now I'm going back going, wait, I only had them with three wins?
17:36That can't be possible.
17:37Go back and look at it.
17:38No, you got it right the first time.
17:39Just leave it be.
17:40So we're going to start with the AFC.
17:42I'll give you my division winners.
17:45I've got Kansas City, Baltimore, the Jets, and Houston.
17:50Wild card team, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and Miami.
17:54I have Kansas City as the number one seed.
17:58Look at that.
17:59Crazy, I know.
18:00So they get the first round by.
18:02I have Baltimore with the same record.
18:04But, again, KC gets the first seed.
18:06So they're the number two seed.
18:07I have them playing Miami in the wild card weekend.
18:10And I have them beating Miami.
18:12I think it's going to be the same old story for Miami.
18:14I think they're going to get off to an awesome start.
18:16And we're going to be talking, again,
18:17about how Mike McDaniel has just redone it again with his offense.
18:20And then I think eventually teams are going to start punching at him a little bit.
18:24And they're going to wear him down physically.
18:26Christian Wilkins, by the way, not being there.
18:28I mean, that guy never came off the field last year.
18:30You don't replace that.
18:32For my three, rather, excuse me, that was the two versus the four.
18:36How about the Jets and Cincinnati?
18:39And you're not going to like this.
18:41You're not going to like this at all.
18:43Oh, man.
18:45I'm thinking Shiesty gets it done in January.
18:49Obviously, that would be a home game for the Jets.
18:51But I just have a – it's been a weird year for Cincinnati.
18:55I just have a feeling that they figure it out at the end.
18:57And they're a very dangerous team.
18:59Then I have Houston over Buffalo.
19:02Buffalo, I think, is going to be a second-half team this year,
19:05just like they were last year.
19:06I think they're going to make a strong run late in the season,
19:09challenge the Jets for the number-one seed in the AFCs,
19:12but in the end end up in the wild-card round, have to go to Houston.
19:16And, look, I looked at various permutations
19:19because I don't like picking the same teams to get back to the postseason.
19:23History shows us usually three teams in each division,
19:26each conference, don't make it the next year.
19:28I just couldn't do it.
19:29I couldn't find.
19:30India, close, couldn't get them there.
19:32Jacksonville, close, couldn't get them there.
19:35No, the Patriots I did not have close in getting there.
19:38So that is how I have the wild-card round, divisional round.
19:41KC hosts Houston.
19:42KC beats Houston.
19:44Baltimore, Cincy.
19:46Joe got it done in the first round.
19:48Not going to get it done against Baltimore.
19:50Baltimore, KC, for your AFC championship game.
19:54Drumroll, please.
19:56Baltimore finally gets it done.
19:58I know people are going to scream at me,
20:00Lamar hasn't won in the playoffs.
20:02He's too good a player.
20:03It's time.
20:04Second year on the offense with Munkin.
20:06Like I said, I think the offense should,
20:08especially the offensive line with a couple young players,
20:10should gel by the end of the season.
20:12I like defensively what they're doing.
20:15I think, again, Zach Orr is going to have to figure out
20:18how he wants to use some of his pieces there.
20:20But I think at the end of the day, Baltimore gets it done.
20:23And look, part of this is also just a pushback,
20:25not that I would ever, you don't like to bet against my homes.
20:28Another year, going to the Super Bowl,
20:30like the three-peat is, when has it been done?
20:33Mike, it's just so hard.
20:35It's so hard to do.
20:37It feels like they're due for a little bad luck at this point.
20:40So that's mine, at least for the AFC.
20:43What do you have?
20:44Yeah, so I had to submit mine for my other show with the Jets.
20:49And so I have the Jets winning the division.
20:51I've gone back and forth on how far they go,
20:54and I'll get to that in a second.
20:55I have Jets, I have Chiefs.
20:57Unfortunately, I have Ravens.
20:59I've gone really back and forth with the South.
21:01I've really struggled at the Chiefs as the one seed.
21:04I've really struggled with the South
21:07because I feel like everyone's picking Houston.
21:09Peter Schrager this morning, good morning football,
21:11made a point that I honestly hadn't really thought much about.
21:13The Texans last year played in the 12 o'clock or 1 o'clock window,
21:1617 straight weeks.
21:18They played the easiest schedule in the NFL,
21:20and they got kind of lucky in week 17 or week 18 with that Colts game,
21:25and then they played Flacco,
21:26and they kind of got dog-walked a little bit against Baltimore,
21:29and it was not so pretty.
21:31I have reservations about Houston,
21:33but I think they have the most talent in the division.
21:35I think they narrowly edge out the Colts.
21:37So I have Chiefs, Jets, Texans, and Ravens similar to you.
21:43I have it Chiefs, Jets, Ravens, Texans.
21:48Then I have from wildcard teams, I have Buffalo as the five seed too.
21:51I know we're kind of on the same page.
21:53I initially was going to put Cincinnati as my sixth seed,
21:55and I went back and forth with it.
21:58I don't like the vibe right now at the Bengals.
22:00It's not great.
22:01It's not great.
22:02I don't like it.
22:03Last year T. Higgins got hurt,
22:05and there was a lot of the conversations around him.
22:07Is he going to get hurt again?
22:08They lose some of their stuff for the running back position.
22:10I feel like the defense isn't quite as good as it used to be.
22:13It's still good.
22:14It's still a good unit, and, you know,
22:15obviously you can't go against Big Lou.
22:17But, like, at the end of the day,
22:18Tennessee North beats up on each other a little bit.
22:21I have the Colts as the sixth seed and the Chargers as the seventh seed.
22:24I didn't want to go chalk and do the same thing as you.
22:26I think Miami and the Bengals will be teams that lose out on tiebreakers,
22:29that both are going, man, like, we, like, lost two or three games
22:34due to Burrow or Tua getting hurt or something there
22:37and kind of kicking themselves.
22:39So, Chiefs, Jets, Ravens, Texans, Bills, Colts, Chargers.
22:45So, a little different than you.
22:47Yeah.
22:48Look, I like the – a lot of people are sort of onto the Chargers
22:51because Harbaugh – and I read somewhere, like, his first year,
22:54it's, like, plus four, plus five wins, like, a turnaround from the last year.
22:58He's just like –
22:59Five and a half wins.
23:00I just can't – I can't get past the –
23:03there's a lack of playmakers on that offense.
23:06It's going to put a lot on Justin Herbert.
23:08Yeah, if Joel's good right away, between him and Slater and Joe, you know,
23:12Jim Harbaugh could just make any guard and center look good.
23:15So –
23:16Ladd McConkey, 100 catches for 800 yards.
23:19Yeah, the little Edelman stat line.
23:21Do I feel good about either of the last two picks?
23:24No, I feel like Miami and Cincinnati are probably the two better teams.
23:27I just feel like sometimes you've got to find some new teams,
23:30and I feel like those are the teams that made sense to me.
23:32Jacksonville's another one you look at and you go,
23:34hmm, maybe could you make the argument there.
23:37I don't feel like I can make the argument for Cleveland or Pittsburgh
23:40just because of the quarterback situations are so –
23:42like, if Richardson's good, they might win the division.
23:46If Herbert's amazing and they really run the ball like that,
23:49they could compete with Kansas City.
23:50Like, they really could.
23:52In terms of the wild card round, it'd be Jets hosting the Chargers.
23:56I believe, if I have that correct, the Jets beating the Chargers.
23:59I just – I can't travel West Coast.
24:02I know they're going to run the football,
24:03but I don't think the Chargers ceiling is quite that high.
24:05I just think their floor is much higher than it was a year ago.
24:08I have Baltimore beating Indy, and I have Buffalo beating Houston.
24:11So, a little different than you.
24:12I just – Josh Allen has been really good in the playoffs.
24:15And especially in the wild card round, he is special.
24:17Kind of as the later gets on in the playoffs.
24:19He's – yeah, he's not why they've come short in the postseason.
24:23Certainly, that 13-second game, I mean, he was phenomenal in that game.
24:27I have the Chiefs beating the Bills, if I believe my math's correct.
24:32I have the Jets beating the Ravens.
24:34As much as my heart wants to pick the Jets to beat the Chiefs
24:37in the NCAA title game, and it very well could happen, you never know.
24:42I still have the Chiefs going back there.
24:44I feel like we're going to have – I'll tease it out.
24:46I think the rematch of last year's opening game will be our Super Bowl matchup.
24:50But I feel like Jets-Chiefs-AFC title game, the Jets are good enough
24:56that Rodgers and company runs it back one more time.
24:59They probably have Devontae at that point, and we're going in like the Jets
25:03are the betting favorite in the AFC to make the Super Bowl again,
25:06but come up just short.
25:07Again, Baltimore flummoxes a little bit in the division round.
25:11The Bills get as far as possible and kind of reload here.
25:14Again, Chiefs, Jets, Ravens, Texans, Bills, Colts, and Chargers for me
25:21on the AFC side.
25:23Yeah, pretty – look, I applaud you.
25:26Seriously, I kept looking at it going, you can't have all the same 17.
25:29You just can't.
25:30I can't do it.
25:31You have to find it.
25:32I swapped out the one.
25:33Cincinnati was the one because of Cleveland, obviously, last year.
25:36Cleveland's an interesting one because, again, defensively,
25:38I think they're stacked.
25:40But as we talked about in the preview –
25:42Yeah, Deshaun Watson.
25:43Deshaun hasn't been good since the COVID year.
25:45And, look, he hasn't played a lot of football,
25:47so maybe this is the year he stays healthy and it all comes together
25:50and he knocks off that rust.
25:51But until I see it, I'm not ready to believe it.
25:55Let's do – we're big on to our sponsors.
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27:23I let off for the AFC playoffs.
27:25You, sir, Will Parkinson, the great Will Parkinson,
27:28you get to lead off the NFC.
27:31I hinted at it a little bit here, and we talked a lot about it.
27:34I think Detroit's poised to make a 15 of the 17 weeks they're playing
27:39in a dome.
27:41They are a stacked roster.
27:43I think the concerns you mentioned about the offensive line age is real.
27:47I think the Jared Goff good, not great effect,
27:50but only good indoors effect matters, but it doesn't matter
27:53because they are playing 15 of the 17 weeks indoors.
27:56So, you know, kind of 99 and 2,000 rams and 2,001 rams.
28:00If you're hosting every playoff game and you're playing your entire season
28:03indoors, why does it matter how well you play outside,
28:07and then the Super Bowl is obviously indoors as well.
28:09So, yeah, the lines is the one seed.
28:12I went back and forth with this.
28:13I think Green Bay is going to be really damn good,
28:15and I think Green Bay might be a 12 or 13-win team.
28:18I just happen to think Detroit is probably going to be a 14-win team,
28:22and I think we mentioned some of the bottom in this division.
28:25Chicago is going to be much improved, but I don't think physically they're going
28:28to be able to rush the passer well enough to beat Detroit at least twice,
28:31if not maybe only once.
28:33And I think from a Minnesota perspective, again, a spunky seven-
28:37or eight-win team, but I don't think those wins are coming against Detroit.
28:40So, leadoff with Detroit is the one seed.
28:43Again, this one's a little weird.
28:46I'm going to have Philly as the two seed, but I don't feel great about this one.
28:50This is the one that like Philly and Dallas both could be the one seed
28:54and both could miss the playoffs.
28:56I just – the talent on Philly is really good.
28:59I think they'll figure it out for a year, but I also think there's a situation
29:02where like I'll get to in a moment where Philly could be awesome
29:05in a regular season, and if they lose early in the postseason,
29:08Nick Sirianni is the first name and Jalen Hurts is going to be the next name,
29:12depending on how things go.
29:13I think they're going to run the ball really well.
29:15I think they're going to play really good defense.
29:17The defense should be much improved, and I just think the division sucks.
29:21So, I think they're going to get a bunch – they're going to get probably three
29:23or four kind of cheapies they beat up on Washington every time,
29:27although Washington randomly goes into Philly sometimes and wins,
29:29and they own the Giants.
29:31So, it just to me feels like they sit with Dallas,
29:34and they're 5-1 in the division.
29:35They eke that one out there.
29:36I have the Rams winning the division as the three seed there.
29:40I think if they can get anything from this defense, and I mean like literally
29:44bare minimum, and they keep Stafford healthy, they're going to score
29:4730-plus points a game.
29:49No one's guarding Cooper Cup, Puka, Tyron Williams.
29:52The list goes on and on with this group.
29:55The offensive line should be awesome.
29:57McVay is special, especially in terms of game planning
30:00and running out different personnel and formation.
30:03So, I really – I just love this Rams team.
30:05And then, AFC South, I'm going to go with Atlanta.
30:09I don't feel great about it personally just because I feel like Tampa Bay is that
30:13team that isn't really that good, but Jason Light's like literally one of the best
30:17GMs in football, and Todd Bulls has figured out how to be a pretty solid coach
30:21in this league as a head coach.
30:23So, the top four in terms of division winners, Detroit as the one seed,
30:27the two seed Philadelphia Eagles, three seed Los Angeles Rams,
30:31four seed the Atlanta Falcons.
30:34I just almost like forgot what team I was going there.
30:37I have – coming in at the five seed, I have San Fran.
30:39I think San Fran will be good.
30:41I think it just won't be as smooth as this year.
30:43I think they're due for a little bit of regression, just a little bit, not a ton.
30:48I just – I kind of – I go back and forth there.
30:51Dallas is the six seed.
30:54Dallas is a team, again, like I mentioned, don't feel great about them at all.
30:58It's a lot of stuff going on with Dallas that similar to Cincinnati,
31:02it doesn't feel great.
31:03The seven seed is the one where, like, again, anything could happen.
31:09Sorry, Green Bay was the six.
31:10Dallas is the seven.
31:11That's where I knew I was forgetting one.
31:14Green Bay I think is going to be really good, as I mentioned.
31:17I just – I don't know if last year was a bit of an aberration with how good
31:20they finished the year and Jordan Love played, like, literally as perfect
31:23of football as you could possibly play for 10 straight weeks.
31:26So, again, that's the wild card.
31:29I have San Fran, Green Bay, and then finishing it up there with Dallas.
31:36Two versus seven, Philly, Dallas, third time around.
31:41I think Philly gets the job done there in the wild card round.
31:44Three versus six, Rams against Green Bay.
31:47Green Bay, I believe the Rams get the job done at home,
31:51even though it's going to be – it'll probably be 98% Packers.
31:53Yeah, I was going to say, there might be more Packers fans than Rams fans.
31:56It's inside, though, so I never know with them inside.
31:59And then the 4-5 matchup, I think San Francisco kicks the crap out of Atlanta.
32:05It kind of feels a little bit like, depending on what Atlanta we get,
32:08there's a legion of boom-ish where, like, they kind of got put out to pasture,
32:11that Atlanta playoff game in 2016.
32:13If I won fear with that game – I mean, it's literally in six months.
32:16It doesn't matter, but that would be my fear looking back.
32:19Mark the tape.
32:20Yeah, mark the tape there.
32:21I think Detroit takes care of business with San Francisco.
32:27I think inside, just the physicality.
32:30I think San Francisco's against the runs not been great in the playoffs there.
32:34And then this is the one that's like Philly, Rams.
32:39I think the Rams go into Philly and get the job done.
32:41I'm extremely high on the Rams.
32:43I think this gets Sirianni fired losing a home playoff game to a warm-weather team.
32:46And then I think Detroit beats the Rams in a rematch of last year's
32:49probably game of the year or one of the games of the year.
32:51Detroit Chiefs Super Bowl gets my pick when we finish up here.
32:55But Detroit's going to be at home inside, as I mentioned,
32:59the entirety of the season, potentially the entirety of the playoffs.
33:03And I just feel like this is the year that we kind of are like,
33:06oh, my God, the Lions are really in the Super Bowl.
33:09Yeah, yeah.
33:10If you're into narratives, Detroit getting to a Super Bowl is pretty remarkable.
33:16There'll be a lot of talk.
33:18If my prediction goes right, there'll be a lot of talk of Jets, Lions, Super Bowl,
33:21which was my – I wanted to get there.
33:23But until like the Jets kind of solve this Reddick situation,
33:26and maybe we see Rodgers play, it's hard to get there.
33:29All right, so for my predictions, I have Detroit as the number one seed.
33:33Again, you mentioned it, the idea that they're playing inside
33:36for pretty much the entirety of the regular season, never mind the postseason, is absurd.
33:43So I waffled back and forth between San Fran and the Rams.
33:46You made a compelling argument for them when we did our preview.
33:49I went back and looked at some things.
33:50I just can't get past no Aaron Donald.
33:54And so when you start looking at it from a talent perspective,
33:59and Kyle's had this sort of magic over McVay,
34:03he's going to keep San Francisco as the division winner and the two seed.
34:07I have Philadelphia winning the NFC East.
34:10Again, that coin toss between them and Dallas, as far as I'm concerned,
34:14is how that was going to play out.
34:15And then Atlanta is sort of the default winner in the division that I think nobody cares about.
34:20And I wouldn't be totally surprised, by the way, if the team that won that division finished 8-9.
34:26I have Atlanta 9-8 in my projections, but like wouldn't be the least bit surprised
34:30if that division is just completely a slogfest and we hear more talk about the idea of getting rid of the divisions
34:37and just give me the seven best teams and let's play out that way.
34:42So then I get to the playoffs, wild card round.
34:44I have San Francisco beating Dallas.
34:46That will be the end of Mike McCarthy in Dallas.
34:50We'll hear immediate rumors about Bill Belichick because of his relationship with Jerry Jones.
34:54But I think Bill would say-
34:55Yeah, it's my Cowboys Eagles thing.
34:57It'll be who gets Bill Belichick, who gets fired first.
35:00Yeah, with a Bill Belichick bowl.
35:02I have Philadelphia as the three seed beating the Rams.
35:05Again, I just think coming back to the East Coast.
35:08And again, I'm not in love with the things that have gone on with Philadelphia,
35:13but I do really appreciate the talent there.
35:16And then I have Green Bay going into Atlanta because Atlanta is the division winner and beating Atlanta.
35:20That takes me to the division round where I have Detroit beating Green Bay.
35:25I think that game is going to be a phenomenal 34-31, who has the ball last type of situation.
35:31That rivalry is heating up.
35:34Both of those teams are really exciting football teams.
35:37Then San Francisco going out to Philly and beating Philly.
35:41And to your point, I think that's the end of Nick Sirianni.
35:44Even though he gets one playoff win, that's not enough for the way they built that team.
35:48That takes me to the conference championship where the reverse of last year.
35:53Detroit gets it done at home.
35:54They beat San Francisco.
35:55San Francisco doesn't get to another Super Bowl.
35:58Detroit does.
36:00So that leaves me with Baltimore and Detroit for my Super Bowl prediction.
36:05And yes, Lamar Jackson, you get to host the game next year to kick off the NFL season.
36:12You are going to win a Super Bowl title.
36:15Oh, by the way, I just want you to remind me of this next year when we're doing this pod.
36:19That if Baltimore does not win the title this year, I am not allowed to pick them again next year.
36:24I believed in them last year.
36:27I believe in this talent.
36:28I just feel like eventually it's going to overcome and he's going to put these playoff things behind him.
36:33I think this is the year that it happens.
36:35I will happily remind you that.
36:36I have the Lions beating the Chiefs.
36:39It scares the crap out of me that I have the Jets, the Lions.
36:43Yes.
36:44Both of those teams and the Rams with no defense.
36:47You know, all and then Chiefs trying to three-peat all in a conference title game.
36:51Like I'm probably not going to get a single one of those picks right.
36:54But Detroit finishing the job down in New Orleans and we have the Jared Goff dunk on, you know,
36:59everyone kind of parade the same way when the Rams won.
37:02It's all about Matt Stafford and, you know, McVay getting over the hump.
37:04I think it'll be a lot of Dan Campbell.
37:06Everyone told me Buddy kneecaps are stupid and corny.
37:09And I told you and Jared Goff saying I've been doubted my whole life, even though you're the number one overall pick.
37:14Cal Berkeley, you know, beautiful wife, number one overall pick.
37:17The whole nine yards guy that's made a Super Bowl in a conference title game before.
37:21We'll get that narrative for two straight weeks and, you know, they'll end up getting the job done.
37:26I think there'll be a lot of Mahomes.
37:29Is he better than Brady if he wins that game?
37:31And if he loses, it's the LeBron.
37:33You get there every year.
37:35So you get more overcriticized.
37:37But I think I don't know.
37:39I think I had five new playoff teams instead of six, which is a curse of death.
37:43And I had the Chiefs going back to Super Bowl, which is probably even stupider.
37:49I believe what I only had.
37:51I only had one.
37:52That's just terrible.
37:53It's not going to work that way.
37:54Just so you know, I'm just put it out there.
37:56But, hey, that's what I said.
37:57I'm going to run with your only every the Jets, your only team that was new.
38:02Oh, actually, too, because I had Cincinnati as well.
38:04Oh, yeah, I forgot.
38:05And Cincinnati, you know, look, if Joe Burrow doesn't get hurt last year,
38:08Cincinnati probably slides in.
38:10All right, let's get to our – we're just doing the major awards, MVP,
38:14Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year,
38:16Rookie of the Year, Offense, Defense, Coach of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year.
38:20Let's start with the Comeback Player of the Year.
38:23I think you and I are unanimous in our choice here.
38:26Based on the fact that the Jets go into the title game,
38:28there is zero chance Aaron Rodgers doesn't win this award.
38:31The only way he doesn't win this to me is simply if he gets hurt again.
38:35So, I think if he stays healthy, I did my stat predictions,
38:39put out a stat model, you know, this morning.
38:42I had him 4,100 yards, 32 touchdowns, 8 picks.
38:46If he does that and the Jets go to the conference title game,
38:49probably the statue in New York, let alone Comeback Player of the Year.
38:52Yeah, and look, remember, they redid the award after last year.
38:56Joe Flacco won the award over DeMar Hamlin.
38:58Look, Hamlin didn't play a lot of games last year, four or five, I think it was,
39:01that he dressed for, was a special teamer.
39:04But a lot of people thought he should have won the award.
39:07Joe Flacco was coming back from just not playing.
39:09He wasn't hurt.
39:10He just wasn't.
39:11No one deemed him a starter anymore.
39:13He wins the award.
39:14So, now it's coming back from an injury.
39:17Rodgers is, to me, the obvious choice here.
39:20Coach of the Year, I'm going to stay with the team that's going to win the Super Bowl.
39:25And normally, this is not how it works.
39:27Normally, the good teams, you don't tend.
39:29Like Belichick, barely won Coach of the Year,
39:32and yet the Patriots were in the Super Bowl nine times in 17 years or 18 years,
39:35or whatever it was.
39:37Normally, it's the team that sort of exceeds expectations and gets to that level.
39:41But I think Harbaugh is going to do such a nice job this year.
39:45Look, in my model, I had them going, both them and Kansas City, winning 14 games.
39:50And I just think people are going to say, you know, Harbaugh, he's due.
39:55Give it to him.
39:5614 wins in a regular season, a number two seed.
39:58And as I have them winning the Super Bowl, which, you know, whatever,
40:01that doesn't factor into the award.
40:02But that's where I went with that one.
40:05Yeah.
40:06I don't know.
40:07This is the one that I –
40:10Coach of the Year is weird, man.
40:12I don't know.
40:13I just feel like it's so stupid.
40:16It's like Brian Dables won.
40:17Like, I think –
40:19Well, look, if you –
40:20Yeah, I mean –
40:21Kansas City won twice.
40:22You had the Chargers in there.
40:23If the Chargers get in there after the way it's gone,
40:26especially after the way it went last year under Brandon Staley,
40:28like you don't think that the other Harbaugh is going to get a ton of awards?
40:32I'll go Shane Steichen wins.
40:34If the Colts get in as a sixth seed, I think they'll be a 10-win team.
40:37I think he's back-to-back years of showing.
40:39And if he develops Anthony Richardson, you know,
40:41the amount of praise he's going to get.
40:42So I'll go Shane Steichen wins the award.
40:44Similar to kind of your argument there.
40:46I think Salah is the guy that could get fired this year
40:48and could win Coach of the Year if the Jets win enough games.
40:52You know, there's a couple of guys like McVeigh will always be in contention
40:54if the Rams are as good as we think.
40:56Dan Campbell, obviously, et cetera.
40:58But I'll go Shane Steichen.
40:59I think that's the guy that people after this year will go, yeah,
41:04the Eagles probably should have had Shane Steichen as their head coach
41:07the next five years.
41:08Yeah, interesting when you kind of like, you know,
41:11we talk a lot about some of the play callers and, like, Bobby Slowick
41:14is obviously going to have another good year.
41:15He's going to be a head coach, get interviews this year.
41:18I think Shane's a better play caller than Slowick is.
41:21I think Slowick didn't have some answers near the end of the year.
41:24I'd be just curious to see what his next progression is.
41:27I'm not here to knock him, but Steichen is an excellent choice.
41:30Rookie of the Year offense, defense.
41:33I didn't want to do this for offense.
41:37Caleb Williams is a chalk pick, and I guess I could sort of make an argument
41:42for Jaden Daniels in the sense that he's probably going to run
41:44for a ridiculous amount of yards because I just think that offense
41:47is going to need him to run for a ridiculous amount of yards.
41:49Maybe he's not stat padding, but maybe the stats end up looking better.
41:53The counting stats look better than the actual performance does,
41:55but I had to go with Caleb here.
41:57I just think he's poised and ready.
42:01Again, neither one of us have the Bears making the playoffs,
42:04although, you know, some people certainly nationally have sort of gone
42:07that way with it, but I think he's going to have a really,
42:10really good rookie year.
42:12Yeah, I saw some people picking the Bears to go to the Super Bowl.
42:14That is – I'd like to have what they're having.
42:17That was an interesting way of trying to get clicks.
42:21Offensive rookie of the year, I'm going to go Jaden Daniels
42:24for pretty much the reasons you just mentioned.
42:25I think he's going to throw the ball about 950 times.
42:28I think that they're going to – he's going to have a much better version
42:32that's fun of Sam Hale last year, which is a gazillion yards,
42:36a gazillion touchdowns, and a gazillion interceptions.
42:40We're going to go – it's going to be the whole conversation all next offseason.
42:44Is Jaden better than Caleb and all that stuff?
42:46In reality, Caleb's definitely better, but they're going to have –
42:49it's going to be that whole debate on get up every morning
42:51and first take, first things first.
42:53And every single debate show is going to be like,
42:55is Jaden better than Caleb?
42:56Did the Bears make the wrong mistake because Caleb had a really good
43:00but like rookie year that was probably a little bit more efficient
43:03in terms of like didn't throw a bunch of – whatever.
43:05I don't know.
43:06I just have a weird feeling we're going to end up where Jaden Daniels is like,
43:08is that guy defensively – did you roll your defensive one?
43:12No, go ahead.
43:13Okay.
43:14Defensively, I have – this one I've really struggled with honestly.
43:19Like I don't know how to explain it, but the draft is such a crapshoot on its own.
43:25And then defensively, it's a very big like stat award in a sense.
43:29Like, I don't know, you look back and you go, okay, like this Dallas Turner
43:34because he's in Minnesota and like will play a lot.
43:37I'm going to go Laatu, Laatu with the Colts.
43:41Right now I'm kind of going Colts heavy on these awards,
43:43but I think if the Colts are as good in their playoff team,
43:46I think that means Laatu is probably pretty damn good this year.
43:49And I think Shane Steichen coaches his tail off.
43:51So I think Laatu in terms of sack numbers do really well with rookie of the year.
43:54We saw it with Willie Anderson a year ago.
43:56Unless you're a defensive back that accumulates just an insane amount
44:00of interceptions, it usually ends up going to an edge rusher or linebacker.
44:03And I think Laatu will be the guy for me.
44:06Yeah, I thought Jared Versier was what was initially when I started zero
44:09in the award, I was thinking verse, but I just wonder another rookie
44:13alongside him on that defensive line.
44:15Did they split some of the numbers?
44:16They split some of the vote.
44:17So that's why I ended up settling on Dallas Turner.
44:19Cause you know that Flores has to have another answer.
44:23Started to get figured out a little bit late last year with all the blitzing
44:26and the simulated pressures and whatnot.
44:28But one of the things they did really well was sort of isolate his edge guys
44:31on one-on-one blocking.
44:33And I think Turner's obviously going to get a fair amount of snaps
44:35if he stays healthy.
44:36And I could see him with seven and a half, eight and a half sack somewhere
44:39in there.
44:40And to your point, like you get those kind of numbers,
44:42you're probably going to win the award.
44:45Defensive player of the year, Micah Parsons in his first three years
44:49in the league, second, second, and third and defensive player
44:52of the year voting.
44:54He gets it this year.
44:55I think Mike Zimmer is going to go bananas with him.
44:57He's going to line him up, you know, sort of Dan moved him around
45:00quite a bit too.
45:01And I can just see him having a 16, 17 sack season, forcing three
45:06or four fumbles, you know, interception, like all that sort of thing.
45:10Touchdown.
45:11Like that feels like the kind of year Micah Parsons is going to have.
45:15And also feels like kind of the year because Jerry got really squirrely
45:18with his contracts.
45:20And then Micah Parsons is going to be like, I'm defensive player
45:23of the year, buddy.
45:24$40 million.
45:25Yes.
45:26You will pay me more than any non-quarterback in NFL history.
45:29So I have Micah Parsons from the Cowboys winning the DPOY.
45:33You kind of referenced his name earlier because I have them, you know,
45:38as a top three seed.
45:40I'm going to go Kyle Hamilton.
45:41I think this is – I debated Sauce.
45:44I debated, you know, Watt, Parsons, Bosa, the usual names.
45:49I thought Quinn Williams I think will finish as a top five guy.
45:52I'll get to my – I'll save my bowl prediction.
45:56I'd slant on Kyle Hamilton in terms I feel like there's a lot of notoriety.
46:00These awards are very much the storyline too.
46:03And I think Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens are on national TV a lot.
46:06He'll have a bunch of big moments.
46:07He might have a big moment on Thursday night,
46:09and that propels you for four or five weeks.
46:11And the next big moment, that's kind of what happens.
46:13And he'll accumulate a couple sacks, a couple interceptions,
46:16a couple forced fumbles, have a high tackles number.
46:19So I'll go Kyle Hamilton here.
46:20I just think we've seen so many addressers kind of rack up this award.
46:24I think we might – we see a reversal here.
46:26And I think a lot of DBs will make their top five finishes in 2024.
46:33I like it.
46:34How about offensive player of the year?
46:35Who do you got?
46:36So this one is – I'm not – I've debated with Brees and Garrett Wilson 500 times.
46:43So you think – again, if the Jets are as good as we think,
46:46that those two guys will put up monster numbers.
46:48I'll get to them with a bowl prediction.
46:50But I think Brees will narrowly finish second.
46:53I think it's hard sometimes for running backs to win this award just because,
46:56like, we're in a passing league and those guys don't, you know,
47:00accumulate as many stats.
47:04Justin Jefferson is going to end up winning this award again.
47:06And I think it's for this reason and this reason only.
47:09He's going to have a Tyreek-like year in terms of he's going to get a gazillion –
47:14I mean, I'm talking, like, Addison, I don't know what's going to happen.
47:17Yep.
47:18I don't know –
47:19Hawkinson, when he comes back.
47:21Whenever he comes back.
47:22And I think Justin Jefferson is on a mission of, like, I want to be the –
47:25I'm not known as the best guy in the league now.
47:27People have passed me a little bit and the whole thing.
47:29And he's going to have, like, 130 catches and 1,700 yards and 15 touchdowns.
47:34And the Vikings go 6-11.
47:36And we're like, oh, that's weird.
47:37Like, this guy's on a bad team.
47:38Why is he winning an award?
47:39But I think we'll see Justin Jefferson win this award.
47:42And, you know, I think it'll be a stat accumulation award similar to Jaden Daniels
47:46where, like, bad team, but the numbers are too hard to pass up for voters.
47:50Yeah.
47:51I mean, this award has sort of become the not –
47:54the quarterback wins the MVP.
47:56And so when the offensive player of the year rolls around,
47:59it tends to be a non-quarterback who wins it.
48:02And I boiled it down to two people.
48:05C.D. Lamb, who is by far and away the most important target on that team.
48:11And you talk about target volume.
48:12He should get a, you know, 12, 13, 14 targets a game if he stays healthy.
48:18And your boy, Garrett Wilson, because I think Garrett Wilson is –
48:22especially as you're slow playing, Mike Williams to start the season,
48:27you're not sure what you're going to get from your third receiver.
48:30Obviously, they are going to lean on Brees Hall quite a bit,
48:32but I just have a feeling he's going to eat a ton of targets.
48:34And I just think back to some of the years that Devontae Adams had
48:38with Aaron Rodgers.
48:39And even if this isn't that Aaron Rodgers, if it's something, as you mentioned,
48:43the numbers you threw out or Ivan said his last year in Green Bay
48:46when he was totally disengaged and still had a, you know,
48:49statistically a really nice year, he's going to feed Garrett.
48:52So it's got back and forth, back and forth.
48:54In the end, I'm going to say it's going to be C.D.
48:56because I think honestly I don't think there's anyone else to throw the ball
48:58to there.
48:59So if he gets 130 catches and whatever, 1,600, 1,700 yards,
49:03I would not be the least bit surprised.
49:05So I'll go C.D. Lamb on that front.
49:07MVP, boring.
49:10I'm boring.
49:11It's going to be Pat.
49:13Their offense is going to be better than it was last year,
49:15even though, again, as I push back against the 2018 comparisons,
49:18I think that's nuts.
49:19But I just think he's going to have a monster year.
49:21It's going to come down to him and Lamar.
49:22Lamar won it last year, sort of passing it back and forth.
49:25And I just think, you know, Mahomes are going to be, in my projections,
49:2914 wins and the number one seed.
49:31Pat Mahomes is your MVP.
49:33Shocker.
49:34Matt Stafford.
49:36Whoa!
49:37Yeah, well, you're riding the Rams.
49:38I like it.
49:39Matt Stafford wins the MVP and retires after the 2024 NFL season.
49:43That's my – that's one of the bold predictions.
49:46I'm just going to blend the two.
49:47We're going to get to it in a second.
49:48Bold predictions is the Rams basically said 12 months ago,
49:52we're going to guarantee your next two years,
49:54give you a raise, and you're going to play.
49:57Can you give us two years?
49:58Can you give us two?
49:59And last year they were better than they thought they were going to be this year.
50:02They're kind of like, can we get one more year out of Matt before he kind of –
50:05he's a guy that's kind of basically talked a lot about,
50:07like I'm going to go before my body goes because my body's already starting to go.
50:12I think Mahomes is a good choice.
50:14I think Lamar is up there.
50:16I think Jared Goss can be in the conversation if they're as good as we think.
50:19But if the Rams are the three seed and they win two or three playoff games,
50:23I know the MVP doesn't matter in that,
50:25but like if they're going to be as good as we think,
50:27Stafford's going to put up crazy numbers.
50:30I think there's going to be a lot of talk all year.
50:32There's going to be a lot of talk all year of like,
50:36is this a last dance for him?
50:38And I think there's been a lot of – he won the title, but he didn't get –
50:41he got a lot of praise but didn't get maybe the regular season praise.
50:45I think maybe if he stays healthy, I think it's a bold take,
50:51but I don't think it's quite as crazy because if you look around the league,
50:55coaches, GMs, all the polls that came out, whether it's the NFL Top 100,
50:59Jeremy Fowler's list, there's the other one that comes out as well,
51:03the athletic and stuff.
51:04Like Stafford's like ranked as a top five guy.
51:06So if everyone's seeing that he's a top five guy and they're a top three seed,
51:12it feels like there's some type of – it's probably a bad take.
51:17I just feel like we get – we might get one of those – I don't know.
51:21I keep referencing this.
51:22This award is so narrative driven.
51:25And the Rams were not an A team a year ago.
51:27Two years ago, Matt Stafford might retire,
51:29and all of a sudden he's got 38 touchdowns and 14 picks,
51:32but he's up 5,000 yards and the Rams are at 12-5.
51:35Like probably going to be a pick.
51:38One of my bold predictions is that Dak Prescott ends up signing
51:43a massive extension with Dallas.
51:45I'm making fun of Jerry.
51:47And I – look, he said it.
51:49Like the fact that there's nothing done, Prescott said,
51:51is like what does that really say?
51:53It doesn't say anything great in terms of how things are going.
51:55There was some buzz two weeks ago that, oh, they're making progress,
51:59and it felt like maybe it was going to happen.
52:02And I think Dak's going to play well in his FU year.
52:06And I think Jerry's going to look ahead and go, what's out there?
52:10What can I do?
52:11It's not Trey Lance.
52:12You know, we gave Trey Lance a ton of playing time.
52:14He ain't it.
52:15You know, we sacrificed a fourth-round pick thinking maybe
52:17that would be our insurance.
52:18Do we want to go into the draft?
52:20You know, he's in his 80s.
52:22Hasn't won a title in a zillion years.
52:24And I think at the end of the day, he's going to have to say, hold my nose.
52:28Here's the $60-plus million a year to be my quarterback.
52:33He'll be the first $60-plus million a year quarterback,
52:35and he'll end up staying in Dallas.
52:37I thought of other scenarios.
52:38I was like, well, if the Giants flame out,
52:40could you see the Giants just throwing bags of money at him?
52:44I'm like, I don't think Dak will go to New York.
52:46I think he's going to eventually.
52:47Like, being the quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys,
52:50even if you haven't won a title there with them
52:53and they haven't won one in a long time,
52:55it's about as prominent a job and sort of the stuff that comes with it
53:01that you can get.
53:03Yeah, my other bold prediction, the Jets will have two players
53:07on each side of the ball, Gary Willis and Brees Hall,
53:09Quinn Williams and Saul Skarner, who all finish in the top five
53:12for offensive and or defensive player of the year.
53:15None of them will win, but they will all be in consideration
53:19or in that top five category.
53:21So Matt Stafford, MVP, is one bold prediction
53:24and retires after the year.
53:26I think it's probably even maybe a slightly less bold prediction
53:29than the MVP.
53:31And the other one is the Jets have two top five finishers
53:34and offensive defensive player of the year.
53:35Neither guy wins on either side of the ball,
53:38but both guys are right in the mix.
53:40And I think there's a lot of angry Jets fans
53:42that they missed the Super Bowl barely,
53:44and at awards night only one of their five guys gets an award.
53:49So I kind of went back and forth, back and forth,
53:53back and forth on this.
53:54And again, it's sort of my first one is almost like
53:56what happens in the offseason thing,
53:58but I just Belichick is looming over this whole thing.
54:00And we mentioned him a couple of times in passing about Dallas.
54:03We mentioned him about Philly, New York.
54:05Obviously we know how he feels about the Giants organization,
54:08that whole entire area.
54:10If they ball flames out, if they don't make enough progress
54:14that Daniel Jones isn't the answer,
54:15which we think he's probably not the answer,
54:18Belichick end up there.
54:20Those three spots are so juicy and so exciting.
54:23But the end, I think Bill,
54:25even though he's had power and the control
54:27for years and years and years,
54:29Philadelphia makes all the sense in the world.
54:31Regardless of what happens this year,
54:33they'll still have plenty of talent.
54:35He wants the record.
54:36That's doable in a year and a half in Philadelphia
54:39with what they have.
54:41He'll win with Jalen Hurts.
54:43I'm not saying win a title,
54:44but he can win.
54:45Whereas if you look at New York,
54:47he still has to find a quarterback like there.
54:49It could take three years to get that record.
54:51I don't know that he wants to do that.
54:52I think he wants to be done, done, get it,
54:55and then go back to Nantucket,
54:56put his feet up and probably find another 20-year-old girl
54:59that he can date.
55:00Just saying.
55:03I have absolutely nothing to add.
55:05That was fantastic way to end that.
55:07All right.
55:08Well, we appreciate you guys tuning in.
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55:32We'll see you at the end of the week
55:34as we start to settle into a normal schedule.
55:36And then Monday, we come back with just game after game.
55:41I cannot wait to get to it.
55:42But still, Friday first, then Monday.
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55:46We'll see you soon.