Wednesday Afternoon Forecast 03/01/24
03 January - National Weather Forecast presented by Aidan McGivern
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00:00Storm Henk may have moved on but we keep low pressure and that will continue to
00:04bring us blustery showers or longer spells of rain during the rest of
00:08Wednesday. Certainly some wet weather across eastern Scotland especially the
00:13hills of Angus, Caithness, Orkney seeing some persistent rain and Shetland in the
00:19cold air that's extended from Scandinavia seeing outbreaks of snow
00:23some slushy stuff at lower levels more significant snow building up over the
00:27hills of Shetland. Now for western Scotland showers will merge into longer
00:31spells of rain also be some longer spells of rain elsewhere across the UK
00:34but generally it's blustery showers moving in especially across southwestern
00:39parts where hail and thunder couldn't be ruled out and gusty winds coastal gales
00:42towards the far southwest but not as windy as it was on Tuesday. In between
00:48the showers there will be some brighter interludes not many but there will be
00:51some especially towards the south as well as Northern Ireland and southwest
00:54Scotland. Temperatures slightly above average 11 Celsius in the south the
00:59closer to average in the far north and below average for Shetland 1 to 3
01:04Celsius during Wednesday afternoon. Now into Wednesday evening those showers and
01:10in places longer spells of rain will continue especially for Scotland where
01:14the wet weather sweeps through and further south the showers continue until
01:19around midnight but eventually drier and clearer skies emerge across South Wales
01:24the Midlands into southern parts of England and as a result a touch of frost
01:29is possible in some sheltered parts but mostly it's frost free although Shetland
01:33keeping the cold air will be frosty and snowy first thing although the snow here
01:38eases as we go through Thursday. Now to understand Thursday's weather in the
01:43south we need to take a look at the setup as we end Wednesday. The jet stream
01:47is quite a messy situation on Wednesday. There's the broad flow to the south of
01:54the UK but various peaks in the jet stream wind field and where these peaks
02:01of wind the core of the jet stream interact with this frontal feature we're
02:06likely to see some development an area of heavy rainfall emerging but because
02:12of the complexity of the jet stream and its interaction with this frontal
02:16feature there are some uncertainties as we go to Thursday in terms of the track
02:20of the heavy rain that is to the south of the UK and that will be key to
02:25determining the impacts from that heavy rain because of course we don't need
02:29any more heavy rain in the south. We start off with sunshine a bit of a chill
02:33in the air in the south but soon enough it turns cloudy and by mid to late
02:37morning we've got the rain pushing into the south. Now there are some error bars
02:41attached to the direction of this heavy rainfall could be a bit further north
02:45could be a bit further south depending on the interaction with the jet stream
02:48but if it follows this track which is the most likely track along southern
02:53counties affecting say Dorset into Sussex, Kent and eventually Essex and
02:59Suffolk by the end of the day well that could cause some impact so yellow
03:02warning in force for southern counties of England risk of 30 millimetres and
03:07one or two spots 50 millimetres and of course that could cause some issues if
03:12it follows this track but it could be a bit further south and as a result those
03:15impacts wouldn't be as severe. Now further north we keep the sunshine for
03:20North Wales into the North Midlands further showers for Northern England
03:23Scotland and Northern Ireland less more less prolonged rain I'd say on Thursday
03:28afternoon in the north compared with Wednesday some brighter skies in between
03:33and feeling a little colder across the board as well. Now the rain in the south
03:39spreads a bit further north into East Anglia and the southeast if it follows
03:44this particular track on Thursday evening but as I mentioned it could be a
03:48little bit further south could be a bit further north depending on its
03:52interaction with the jet stream so of course we'll keep you updated right here
03:55on the Met Office and you can follow all those updates on our YouTube channel.