Saturday evening forecast 16/09/23
16 September - National weather forecast presented by Jonathan Vautrey
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00:00Hello there. The weekend could be ending with a bang for some of us as we see the increasing
00:05threat of some heavy thundery showers developing. Throughout Saturday there's been a bit of
00:09a battle for our weather between this area of high pressure out in the Atlantic that
00:13has stretched its way across parts of Scotland, keeping things relatively fine, but closer
00:17towards Iberia there's this area of low pressure that's wanting to also exert its force on
00:22our weather. That has been bringing some showery outbreaks to certainly southwestern areas
00:26at least. It's also this battle between slightly cooler and milder, warmer conditions. Area
00:32of high pressure has been helping to filter in that slightly cooler air mass across the
00:35northern half of the UK, but low pressure in the south is wanting to build in that humidity
00:41and warmth from parts of continental Europe. It's increasingly looking as we head towards
00:46the end of Sunday that it's the low pressure that will win its way out, certainly progressing
00:51its way northwards and combining forces with another area of low pressure closer towards
00:54Iceland and effectively squeezing that high pressure out, providing that humid air across
01:00much more of the UK. And it's that combination of humidity and the heat that will provide
01:06that thundery outbreaks with the unsettled conditions. But for now, on Saturday evening,
01:12still generally some lighter showers around, but they will be pushing their way from parts
01:16of southwest England over towards Wales into Northern Ireland for the early parts of Monday
01:20morning. Might see a few sharp ones in the mixture as well. The cloud building across
01:25much of England, Wales and Northern Ireland as well. So generally the southern two thirds
01:29of the UK starting to now see that more humid and warm air filter its way in. So temperatures
01:34here won't be dropping too far at all overnight, generally mid to high teens for many towns
01:40and cities. But across the far north of Scotland, that's where we are holding on to that slightly
01:44cooler air mass and underneath the clear skies as well. Temperatures will certainly be falling
01:49off much more sharply down to around two to five degrees Celsius quite widely, but
01:54even close to freezing with some frost possible in those sheltered rural areas. The clear
02:00skies as well across northern Scotland does mean it'll be pretty good viewing conditions
02:04for the aurora, which will be enhanced tonight. So do take a look to the skies if you are
02:09out and about. As we head for out Sunday, then continuing to see that humid air move
02:14its way northwards in combination with the cloud and showery outbreaks of rain initially
02:18across Northern Ireland, spreading into northern England and Scotland later. Parts of Cape
02:22Ness over towards the Northern Isles holding on to the sunshine for most of the day. It's
02:26here, though, in the south where we start to see the next band of showers moving their
02:30way in. And it's these that could prove particularly potent with some heavy thunderstorms, downpours
02:36in the mixture, hail and lightning also possible. Generally, it'll be southwest England, Wales
02:41that see some of the strongest and heaviest downpours. But there's still the risk of some
02:45thunderstorms and lightning across southeastern areas of England as well. So do just take
02:50care because some localised flooding is possible and may provide some travel disruption throughout
02:55the day. Temperatures underneath all that cloud as well, generally now holding up between
03:0017 and 22 degrees Celsius. So for most of us in that warm and humid air, Northern Ireland,
03:06parts of central Scotland, seeing those temperatures just slightly higher compared to Saturday.
03:11Not quite as high as the 28 degrees Celsius that we have seen across southeast England
03:15on Saturday. The increased amounts of cloud just holding temperatures back ever so slightly,
03:20but still warm. If you do see some sunshine and relatively humid into Sunday evening,
03:27continuing to see that northwards progression of some of those showers, some further ones
03:31bushing their way in for Wales and eastern areas of England. There is some uncertainty
03:37in regards to how widespread these could develop, but there is the potential into the
03:42latter part of Sunday that again, we could see some particularly potent, heavy thunderstorms
03:47developing with very large hail and frequent lightning. So it is worth keeping up to date
03:52with the forecast for these and we'll have further updates on exactly how these could
03:56develop over the next 24 hours or so. Towards the north, the rain that was initially across
04:02Northern Ireland, Northern England spreading its way across Scotland will actually help
04:05reactivate some of the rain across the far northwest as well. That turning heavier across
04:09parts of the outer Hebrides and western Scotland throughout the second half of the night and
04:13eventually forming this more longer band from north to south across western areas, including
04:18parts of Northern Ireland and the far southwest of England. With all the cloud around and
04:23those heavy outbreaks of rain and the increasingly blustery winds, it will be quite a warm night
04:29for everyone now that that mild and humid air has spread across all areas of the UK.
04:34So certainly not as chilly for the far north of Scotland, even holding up around 11, 12
04:38degrees Celsius here, but there's still the potential for mid-locally high teens across
04:42some areas of southern England. As we head throughout the start of the new working week
04:47then, it's the case of us watching this band of rain slowly progress its way from the west
04:52and over towards the east. Again, could be some heavy downpours in the mixture here with
04:57further hail and thunderstorms also possible. The rain will be most persistent for parts
05:02of northeastern Scotland. Generally elsewhere, we will start to see some brighter spells
05:07developing into the second half of the day as that cold front eventually swings its way
05:11through. Still with a scattering of showers to watch out for and some of those again still
05:15could be quite sharp. Will certainly be a blustery day for all of us, but in amongst
05:20all of that, temperatures holding up around 15 to 21 degrees Celsius. So now a bit more
05:26of an east-west contrast in our temperatures rather than the north-south split that we
05:30have seen of late. Generally those western areas, temperatures just slightly lower, whereas
05:36eastern areas holding up a slightly bit more. And that's just because of the cold front
05:42that is swinging its way through. Ahead of that, we are still holding onto that slightly
05:46more humid and muggy air. So where you hold onto that for most of the day throughout Monday,
05:51that is just helping hold temperatures up. But a shift of winds to more westerly direction
05:57further towards the west, that's helping to feed in that fresher air from the Atlantic
06:01as we head throughout Monday. And that will continue to progress its way over towards
06:05the east throughout the rest of the day. But we then look towards the Atlantic as another
06:11area of low pressure wants to move its way in for the middle part of the week. So we're
06:15not quite out of the woods yet. And there is certainly further showers and rain on the
06:19cards for many of us. So do stay up to date with the forecast. We'll have the latest across
06:24all of our social media channels, as well as these video forecasts on YouTube, the app
06:29and the website. We'll see you again soon. Bye bye.