Sunday evening forecast 17/09/2023
17 September - National weather forecast presented by Jonathan Vautrey.
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00:00Hello there, hope you were able to enjoy your weekend, although for some of us it's what
00:04you might call been tipping it down, particularly for southern areas of England. This band of
00:10heavy rain and thunderstorms has been moving its way in throughout Sunday. Parts of Devon
00:14and Somerset have seen close to 100mm of rain fall, which is well over what we'd normally
00:20expect for the whole month of September. These will be steadily progressing their way northwards
00:26as we head throughout Sunday evening, generally easing off a touch, but there is still the
00:29risk across southeastern areas of England that we start to see a few more potent thunderstorms
00:34developing here throughout the night. Not everyone will see them, but they could bring
00:37again some torrential downpours of rain, so do take care. Further towards the north and
00:41west, the rain will also be intensifying for western Scotland, turning quite persistent
00:45in places. A good amount of cloud around elsewhere, so really quite a mild night for most of us,
00:50holding up between 13 and 17 degrees Celsius for most of our towns and cities. Whilst it
00:56will be a mild start to Monday morning, it's also going to be quite an unsettled one. This
01:00band of heavy rain will be slowly pushing its way eastwards throughout the day, scooping
01:05up some of the thunderstorms that are still lingering across the south-east of England,
01:09all moving their way across towards the North Sea. The rain will be quite persistent for
01:13parts of north-east Scotland, Aberdeenshire, Caveness, over towards Orkney. Behind that,
01:17we will start to see some brighter interludes developing, but still with quite frequent
01:20showers pushing their way in from the west, quite blustery as well in amongst all of that.
01:25Temperatures generally ranging between 14 to 21 degrees Celsius. Westerly winds from
01:30the Atlantic helping to turn things quite fresher across western areas, so holding onto
01:35some slightly cooler conditions here. In the far south-east, the mild air still in place,
01:39so climbing towards that 21 degrees Celsius value. Into Monday evening, that rain in the
01:45far north-east will be slowly clearing its way off, but other eastern counties should
01:49see things turning largely dry and those showers will ease off mostly, but they will be persisting
01:54further towards the west, particularly for parts of western Scotland and Northern Ireland,
01:59before we see this increasing but more persistent area of rain move its way in through the early
02:03hours of Tuesday morning, certainly turning into quite a damp, cloudy start to Tuesday
02:08here. We'll probably see an early minimum in temperatures for parts of Northern Ireland,
02:13so it could be quite a fresh, cool evening, but the temperatures just rebounding close
02:17towards that 10 degrees Celsius value as you head towards dawn on Tuesday. Further towards
02:21the east, where we hold onto the clearest skies for the longest overnight, it will allow
02:25those temperatures to drop off more so, and particularly for southern areas of England,
02:29it will be quite a fresher and cooler night to come, compared to some recent ones that
02:33we have had of late. To really understand this area of rain that is moving its way in
02:38from the west, we actually have to start the journey over on the other side of the Atlantic,
02:42close towards Canada, with this area of low pressure that has been pushing around Nova
02:46Scotia throughout the weekend. This is the remnants of what was Hurricane Lee, closer
02:52towards parts of the Atlantic, but as it's moved further north, it's moved over colder
02:57waters, and so it's lost its hurricane status, and has gone through what we call a post-tropical
03:02transition, and is now a more mid-latitude storm. Still quite a potent one, so it will
03:08be gradually pushing its way across the Atlantic, in part thanks to this powerful jet stream
03:13that's in place, so helping to move its way across over towards the UK. Initially it will
03:18be bringing this warm front with it, so that's what's coming our way on Tuesday, and then
03:21the area of low pressure settles itself across the north-west, more towards Wednesday, with
03:25the cold front then digging its way southwards. So, for Tuesday itself then, that band of
03:30rain will be pushing its way in, a damp start for Northern Ireland, then the rain moving
03:34its way eastwards, quite persistent and heavy for parts of north-west England, northern
03:37areas of Wales as well. Parts of the far south and the far north may see some drier intervals
03:43in place, but still quite an unsettled day for many, with coastal gales around much of
03:47England, Wales and Northern Ireland. That certainly will make it feel quite fresh in
03:52places, even with temperatures around 18 to 20 degrees Celsius across those three areas
03:58of the country. When you add on the strength of the winds, it will be feeling quite brisk
04:02in places. The far north of Scotland, or even some slightly cooler conditions, generally
04:0612 to 15 degrees Celsius there. That area of low pressure is still going to be holding
04:11on as we head throughout Wednesday as well, so there's plenty of autumnal weather to keep
04:15an eye on. So, do keep up to date with the latest across all of our social media channels,
04:19and we'll be back with you very soon on the app, on the websites and on YouTube. Bye bye.