MLB Best Bets: Full Tuesday Slate + Futures Odds and Analysis
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00It was a meaningful Monday around Major League Baseball ahead of a full Tuesday live right
00:08here on the Early Line on SportsGrid.
00:11And we start with a round of applause and a sincere bit of gratitude from my end to
00:17our MLB insider and the host of Newswire, Craig Misch.
00:22Because as the Royals sweep the Guardians in a doubleheader yesterday in Cleveland,
00:27two wins for KC pushed them to 74 this year over their preseason win total of 73-and-a-half.
00:36Before we even got to September, Craig, I don't know how you do what you do, but I thank
00:40you sincerely because I bet that, with your advice and guidance, way back in the winter.
00:46Yeah, look, betting is not easy, but this tends to be one of the things that I'm really
00:51good at, are these season win totals.
00:53So I would not claim to be really good at anything when it comes to sports betting.
00:57But yeah, I mean, look, I think part of this, as we've talked about it, we'll do it again
01:01next season, is focusing more on the teams in the middle that can go over and the teams
01:06in the middle that can go under.
01:07I just think it's a really smart way to go about it.
01:11To win that bet, Ben, before September is sort of insane.
01:15But the other one, on the Angels under, we're going to win that one in the next two weeks
01:19too.
01:20The next two going into the season, and those are going to play out the way we thought.
01:25The Halos 54 and 77, they have lost five in a row.
01:28We have an under of 72 and a hook.
01:30The Angels would have to go 19 and 12 over their final 31 to go over.
01:36That will be another round of applause here very, very soon, I anticipate.
01:41History made yesterday, Craig Misch, in MLB, and that's where we will start as we hit every
01:46single bag in the Daily Bases.
01:54Love to throw it in there every now and then.
01:57You know what?
01:58Leecee was probably screaming yesterday, Danny, as in Danny Jansen, who was playing yesterday
02:03for the Red Sox, but started this year in Toronto, was playing for the Jays in a game
02:08on Wednesday, June 26th against Boston, when the game was suspended and it was resumed
02:14yesterday.
02:15So, Danny Jansen, who was traded by Toronto to Boston ahead of the trade deadline, was
02:20catching for the Sox yesterday and becomes the first player in MLB history to play for
02:26both teams in the same game.
02:29Craig, how will you remember Monday, August 26th in the history of MLB?
02:34Yeah, I kind of feel like we're going to forget about this one, but for one day, yeah, I mean,
02:43it was pretty cool.
02:44It was interesting.
02:46We were talking about will he be able to throw himself out behind home plate if he steals
02:49second base.
02:50There were a lot of people that were confused with this, how the box score works and everything
02:53else.
02:54You know, but certainly I think for at least one day, I think not only did Major League
02:58Baseball do a fun job of this, but I thought both the Blue Jays and Red Sox did a good
03:03job of this on the scoreboard, showing him twice.
03:06So a really, really cool day, and it goes down to probably remembering this 10, 20 years
03:11from now.
03:12We're going to ask ourselves a question.
03:13Anybody play for two teams a long day, we will remember this, but this is one of those
03:17things where I think we move forward and on to everything else.
03:20Yeah, let's move forward to some real stories now at this point.
03:23That means Dylan Cruz got brought up by the Washington Nationals, the 2023 number two
03:27overall pick.
03:28He goes 0-3, but we're expecting big things out of Cruz, and the story now is Washington
03:34on the rebuild.
03:35What are the expectations for Dylan Cruz for the rest of the month of September, and also
03:39do we think he's going to start with the ball club in 2025 here to start the season?
03:43Oh, yeah.
03:44I mean, he's going to be in their opening day lineup with James Wood and these young
03:49prospects.
03:50Washington is headed in the right direction, Donnie.
03:53I still feel like next year is that year that the Nationals with those players and some
03:59others get like closer to 500.
04:00That kind of feels about accurate, and then two years from now, they dive back into free
04:04agency.
04:05Remember, this is the same team that spent hundreds of million dollars on Steven Strasburg,
04:09so they're not afraid to spend money, but I do think if they look in the division, and
04:13they see the Phillies, and they see the Braves, and even the Mets, that Washington's probably
04:18going to approach this like, hey, let's wait another year to see if those teams fall down
04:23a little bit more before we jump back in, because inevitably, that's the way baseball
04:26works.
04:27It's in cycles.
04:28Washington had their cycle, won a World Series.
04:29Getting closer, not quite there yet.
04:30Cruz is a big add, though, for them.
04:33A couple of pieces, Dylan Cruz, James Wood, as Craig mentioned, Mackenzie Gore, the young
04:38starting pitcher, has been promising at times here in 2024 for Washington to be slightly
04:44optimistic about moving forward.
04:46Paul Skeens won, Dylan Cruz, too, in the 2023 MLB draft out of LSU.
04:51It was a great year, of course, for the Bayou Bengals.
04:54National League MVP race, if there still is one, Shohei Otani joining the 40-40 club over
05:01the weekend at minus 2300.
05:03Francisco Lindor does have the second-best price for the Mets, Craig, at 5-1.
05:08Obviously, the odds say this is over, but the reason it could be a conversation is because
05:14Shohei Otani is a designated hitter.
05:17We have never seen a non-positional player win an MVP, but in your mind, is the race
05:23already done?
05:24Yeah, it's over.
05:26I think you saw most of the books take down Kaitlin Clark's odds to win Rookie of the
05:30Year, and I think you're going to see the Otani MVP odds get shut down pretty soon here.
05:35I mean, 50 home runs, 50 stolen bases, Ben.
05:38I mean, that's just unheard of.
05:40It's never happened in Major League Baseball, so that's going to happen for him.
05:43The good thing about Lindor is it's given him some nice attention and some pub because
05:46he's a really good player, Hall of Fame trajectory, but Otani's the MVP, open and shut case.
05:52Big game out on the West Coast, East Coast versus West Coast.
05:55That's the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
05:57Irving versus Flaherty, a heavy favorite of the fans of those sports, but close to
06:00a $2 favorite on the Dodgers.
06:02But the bigger thing is the Dodgers need to keep that pace of play up to void off some
06:07of those teams heading towards them in the West, but also Baltimore.
06:10They got to stay afloat here before the Yankees get too much of a lead on them.
06:13Craig, what are we looking at from this series out there?
06:15Yeah, I mean, Orioles pitching struggling a little bit, but let's get real.
06:18I mean, these two teams aren't separated by all that much, and you have a minus 200 in
06:23LA against Baltimore.
06:25I could not lay that.
06:26So I mean, either today would be plus one and a half for Baltimore, just taking the
06:29Orioles on the money line there.
06:32Look, the Dodgers are probably the better team in one day, and Cole Irvin is not great,
06:37and Flaherty's been better.
06:38But guys, I mean, this is, you know, Orioles just hit one three-run home run with Anthony
06:42Santander, and they win the game.
06:43So I would not necessarily fade LA, but I would not lay 200 against a team that's projected
06:50to make the postseason and finish with one of the best records in the American League.
06:54Yeah, the O's still 76-56, 11-12 in August, 18-8 since the All-Star break.
07:01They've been frankly mediocre since the All-Star break, but still an optimistic outlook for
07:06October.
07:07Craig Misch, again, thank you for the Royals' overwin total, and we'll see you on Newswire
07:13starting in just about 40 minutes at 11 a.m. Eastern time here on SportsScreen.
07:19More MLB breakdowns coming your way next on the Early Light.
07:22After a historic Monday in Major League Baseball, we get you set for a full slate Tuesday.
07:28But before we do that, one more time, a nod to history, an ode to Danny Jansen, as he
07:34was in two places at once yesterday, Donny Rightside, as he gets ready to break down
07:39the MLB slate on this Tuesday on both the right and left side, living up to both parts
07:47of his personality to get you set for this MLB slate on Tuesday.
07:52Is Donny Leftside?
07:54Want to ask Donny Rightside the rotation number of our first game tonight, Baltimore and L.A.,
08:00the Dodgers in the O's out at the Ravine?
08:03Yeah, before we get to that, like, you see the way this setup is on the screen right
08:07now that you guys are watching right now?
08:08You know what's fun about this?
08:10This is me every single day on radio here.
08:12It's me talking to myself back and forth, alter ego, getting angry, getting excited,
08:17giving out winners here.
08:18So this is, look at the, what do you mean there's two of them here?
08:21There's two of me every day on the radio going back and forth with myself.
08:24So there you go.
08:25Energize.
08:26I thought you called.
08:27I thought you called it a solo mission.
08:30It's a double mission, really, even though it's one of the two box.
08:33There's a two box out there.
08:35Somebody's got to fill up the time with it at that point here.
08:37You know what I mean?
08:38The show's set up for two, but always ends up with one.
08:40And away we go.
08:41Uh, listen, the guy's got a lot of things happening right now as we get ready for football
08:46season.
08:47I'm the guy shows up at work at night, not in the afternoon.
08:49I mean, what's going on behind the scenes here?
08:51I mean, where is the chemistry and where is the work ethic from these young kids at the
08:54network?
08:55There's not there anymore.
08:56Well, some of us can't manufacture our schedule perfectly to line up with when we break our
09:01fast and be done by noon each and every day.
09:05But Hey, I'll leave that for another time.
09:08Let's get into the actual baseball breakdown, shall we?
09:11And that matchup we just looked at with Craig Mish world series preview question mark tonight
09:16at the ravine in downtown LA.
09:18The Dodgers and Jack clarity who was going up against his former team in Baltimore.
09:23He was traded last year at the trade deadline to the O's spent very little time in the charm
09:29city.
09:30The Dodgers are nearly a $2 favorite against the O's is the price too steep tonight in
09:36Los Angeles.
09:37I don't know if it is here.
09:38You ever see the meme or the little short video there were Andre the giants in the wrestling
09:42ring and basically it's like, no, no, no, no, no, no.
09:44Doesn't want anybody to come after him.
09:46That's what Baltimore is doing tonight with Cole Irving on the mound because over the
09:49past 60 days, I got 26 pitchers ranked on this card with 20 innings pitch.
09:53You know, the worst right now is put that meme up there.
09:57We have it.
09:58Oh, it's called Irvin.
09:59We don't want to see any, I mean the Dodgers, she'll be able to hammer at the plate tonight.
10:03So hey, Otani, Mookie, Betts, say Oscar Hernandez, he K Hernandez, any Hernandez you want is
10:08going to be able to get face stocks tonight for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
10:12So that meme is right there.
10:13The guy you don't want on the mat is Cole Irving.
10:16That's the guy you've got tonight for the Orioles.
10:18How about that?
10:19Yeah.
10:20I mean, you know exactly the man I'm talking about there.
10:27I know exactly what you're talking about.
10:29You're right.
10:30It's true, man.
10:31I mean, Cole Irving, just not the guy you need tonight to succeed out of the West Coast
10:40for the Orioles, man.
10:41If you can ever lose two baseball games at once, this could be it with Cole Irving on
10:45the mound.
10:46So watch out, people.
10:47Oh, OK.
10:48I got to, I got to try to collect myself.
10:51I don't know.
10:53That's going to be possible.
10:54We go to Philadelphia tonight next for game number two this week between the Fields and
10:58the Astros, Philadelphia walking it off courtesy of Bryce Harper last night, the RBI single
11:04to win it in 10 innings, Aaron Nola and Justin Verlander, Verlander back on the bump for
11:10his second start since he returned since early June, made his first start last week.
11:16Now start number two.
11:17The Phil's nearly a dollar and a half favorite at home.
11:20Total is nine.
11:21Might we see some more offense tonight in Philly?
11:24I don't know, man.
11:25Every time I watch the Phillies game, it seems kind of tough, even because Aaron Nola is
11:28a quality pitcher.
11:29Over the past 30 days, though, 130 batters he's faced, which is interesting because he
11:33has some solid numbers, but not with ISO and weighted on base percentage, more of the analytical
11:37numbers, a higher ISO power number against a higher weighted on base percentage against
11:42you.
11:43Take a look at that Houston lineup.
11:44They actually do very well against right handed pitchers, which includes Bregman, Alvarez,
11:47Diaz, Singleton and Pena all in order.
11:50But if we're lining up what we're going to get out of Verlander, the question is still
11:53out there.
11:5420 batters faced here over the past month coming back.
11:56He does have decent splits, but are we getting the Verlander that we anticipate coming back
12:00and being fully healthy throughout the rest?
12:03Or is it going to be shaky starts until he gets it together?
12:05The one thing I do know, this Philly's lineup over the past 30 against right handed pitching,
12:10terrible.
12:11Schwerber, Riomuto, everybody else, horrendous.
12:14And that can't happen here.
12:15So why not just look at another under in Philadelphia?
12:18It just feels like playoff baseball is here and not a lot of hits to grab.
12:22Listen, it's warm weather on the East Coast, but you would expect Nola and Verlander to
12:27have a much lower total than nine, at least on paper.
12:31That was called a World Series preview.
12:33The Dodgers and the O's was called a World Series preview.
12:36The twins and the Braves, a World Series preview.
12:39It demeans the very name.
12:41All right.
12:42We've got some issue here.
12:43We're demeaning the very word and the prestige that is World Series in Major League Baseball.
12:49But we can't ask the question for three different games in three different spots around the
12:55Tuesday MLB card, Baltimore and L.A., the Dodgers and the O's.
13:00That feels fitting.
13:01The Phillies and the Astros.
13:03I'd hear that as well.
13:04The twins and the Braves, the twins and the Braves as World Series preview in Minneapolis
13:10today.
13:11Look, they played before in the World Series.
13:13So.
13:14Good point.
13:16Come on now.
13:17Good point.
13:18Yep.
13:19That is a pretty good point.
13:20It's a near pick of the LRS.
13:21Near pick of today in Minneapolis.
13:23Total of eight and a half.
13:25What do you like here after Atlanta plates 10 yesterday to open up the midweek set with
13:29a win?
13:30I don't know if Atlanta plates 10 again today, but my goodness, Spencer Schwellenbach, fresh
13:33off of that start against the Phillies, filled up the Phillies where he sliced and diced
13:37them here.
13:38We're taking a look overall and say to ourselves, all right, look at Schwellenbach last 30 days
13:42in baseball, 98 batters.
13:43He's faced a 141 iso and a weighted on base percentage of 268 against.
13:47I do like that lineup for the Minnesota twins, but I'm going to ride the hot hand of Schwellenbach
13:51and take a look at Woods Richardson over the past 30 days, 107 batters he's faced.
13:56He's actually struggled mightily against right handed batters.
13:58So maybe there'll be the focal point tonight with Merrifield five base hits yesterday.
14:02So layer back in the lineup.
14:03Marcelo Zuna has got great numbers here, even from a lefty perspective, which Woods Richardson
14:07has been very good against.
14:09Maybe Olsen with that 348 iso through his last 78 at bats against right into pitching
14:13can step up to the plate.
14:14I think Atlanta is the better team on better lineup tonight and also better pitcher.
14:18Give me Atlanta once again.
14:20The Braves have won seven of their last nine.
14:23They're not going to catch more than likely the Phillies in the National League East or
14:27even the two teams in front of them in the National League wildcard.
14:30But they are building up a pretty substantial advantage.
14:33Now three games over the match.
14:35Just quickly on Spencer Schwellenbach, who made six starts when he debuted in MLB at
14:40the end of May through the end of June.
14:42He was one in four with a five, six ERA in his eight starts since four in July, four
14:48in August.
14:49He is now five and six.
14:51He has won four of those eight and he has lowered his ERA to 394.
14:57The best it has been this year in MLB.
15:00Better for Atlanta as of late.
15:03So again, the Braves, a three game advantage over the New York Mets as the Mets had the
15:08day off yesterday and start a difficult series today in Arizona against the Diamondbacks
15:13team who has won six straight games.
15:16The D-backs, an ever so slight favorite at home today in Phoenix, minus 116 total of
15:21eight and a half.
15:22What's the play?
15:23Yeah, I might be leaning a little bit towards the New York Mets in this game.
15:26You take a look at Sean Manai over the past 30 days.
15:28He's been wonderful.
15:29122 batters at his face, Ben.
15:30Look at that ISO 114 and a weighted on base percentage of 233.
15:34If we take a look at his last 60 and two thirds innings over the past 60 days, how about an
15:40ERA, Ben?
15:412.97 and an XFIP number of 3.86.
15:44How does this factor in?
15:45You take a look at that Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that we love to bet typically on a
15:48night-to-night basis, but they've actually struggled with left-handed pitching over the
15:52past month.
15:53You take a look at the first five guys in that lineup, Perdomo, McCarthy, Gurriel, Bell
15:56and Grichuk, all solid hitters.
15:58But look at the ISO power numbers, 0, 139, 107, 148 and 120 here.
16:04Maybe Benai can quiet the bats here for the Arizona Diamondbacks enough to get that offensive
16:08going, offense going.
16:09But at the same time, it's not like we love that Mets lineup tonight either.
16:13Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound.
16:15He actually has average statistics, if you want to say, over the past month, but also
16:19from a Mets perspective, they have struggled hitting left-handed pitching.
16:22So I do like the Mets in sort of a coin toss here, but maybe the better look overall is
16:26just taking it under in this game.
16:29So now we go to St. Louis.
16:31The Padres continue to keep pace with the Diamondbacks and even the Dodgers in the National
16:36League West.
16:37Arizona, four and a half games up over Atlanta for the top spot in the National League wildcard
16:43chase in San Diego, or just four games.
16:46But San Diego, one game back of Arizona, but still three games in front of Atlanta.
16:51The Padres winning yesterday in St. Louis, courtesy of three ribbies apiece from both
16:55Manny Machado and the National League Rookie of the Year favorite in Jackson Merrill.
17:00San Diego, a pretty hefty favorite today.
17:02They were a dog on Monday with Dylan Cease on the bump.
17:06Will the good times keep rolling for the Padres?
17:08Yeah, interesting too, because without remembering exactly these last starts, I want to say Dylan
17:13Cease got knocked around and Myles Michaelis had a decent performance.
17:16So it's almost like a role reverse of what I thought was going to happen when those two
17:19took the mound.
17:20We take a look today.
17:21Dylan Cease still technically the better overall pitcher.
17:23Last 60 days of Major League Baseball, 56 and a third innings pitch, a 272 ERA and an
17:28XFIP of 311.
17:30So we're lining that up against a lineup for myself with the Cardinals.
17:33I don't like all that much.
17:34Now let's flip it over to Myles Michaelis.
17:37Last 30 days, you're getting some good and some bad.
17:39But look at that lineup for the Padres.
17:41If you remove Luis Camposano from that lineup, the catcher, who's due to bat eighth, every
17:45single other player elevated, weighted on base percentages over the past month against
17:50right-handed pitching.
17:51The San Diego Padres, man, continue to stay hot.
17:53And I think they do that once again today, Ben.
17:56Yeah.
17:57San Diego now 16 and 7 in the month of August, 9 and 14, however, the mark for the Redbirds
18:03and they are fading out of postseason contention in the National League.
18:08John Cease has given up eight earned runs in four total full starts since the no-no
18:12at the end of July.
18:14Not bad by any means, but has lost two of his last three starts.
18:19There is a chance there's a new team atop the American League Central standings by the
18:23time we speak tomorrow on a Wednesday.
18:26However, the Guardians, a minus 158 favorite to stay in front of the Royals.
18:32Michael Lorenzen was great last week for KC.
18:35The total is nine.
18:36If Kansas City wins, we are tied atop the AL Central with the Royals and the Guardians.
18:42Does that happen today in the land?
18:45I do think the advantage would be towards the Royals.
18:48But if we're taking a look at the total in this ballgame, I think that might be the best
18:51way to play it and play it to the over.
18:53The reason is Michael Lorenzen, take a look at his last 30 days.
18:56He's faced 108 batters.
18:57He actually has very good ice on weighted on base percentages.
19:00But how real are those numbers?
19:01I'd like to say again, dancing between the raindrops without getting wet.
19:04Why?
19:05I have him with 25th pitcher at a 26 over the past 60 days with an exit number of 5.63.
19:11That means he gives up too many fly balls, doesn't strike out enough guys, and the ball
19:14will be in play.
19:15He also keep in mind in Cleveland today, Ben, 90 degree temperatures at first pitch with
19:20an eight mile an hour wind blowing out to right field.
19:22If we focus on those Kansas City batters, Gavin Williams isn't a great pitcher.
19:26Last 105 batters.
19:27He's facing ISO 226, which is elevated, weighted on base percentage, 348.
19:32Look at the lineup here, Massey, Witt, Pasquantino, Melendez, Fermin, all high weighted on base
19:38percentages today.
19:39Forget about the side itself.
19:41Take the total.
19:42I think both of these teams bring their bats out today and we get a total to the over.
19:46Bobby Witt Jr. hit the game winning home run in the first game of the doubleheader.
19:50Salvi had six RBIs for KC in game two.
19:54DRS, enjoy the money line.
19:56We'll talk tomorrow here on the early line when we round out the show on the other side
20:00of the break.