MLB Best Bets: Thursday's Slate + Futures and Awards Odds
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00:00Major League Baseball front and center just a few more days left in August with
00:05September on the horizon this weekend the last month of this long MLB season
00:11in a marathon that is a hundred and sixty-two regular season games to set
00:15the stage for all of that our MLB insider the host of Newswire which
00:19starts each and every week day at 11 a.m. Eastern Time Craig Mish joins us
00:23here on this Thursday on the early line Craig as always we thank you for your
00:28time of course oh you're lying to everybody MLB front and center Ben come
00:32on we know what's going on tonight we know what's going on and we get your
00:43take on Florida that's good by me yeah talk to your bosses talk to your bosses
00:51we can figure something out talk to me talk to Donnie we're doing salt we're
00:57doing hoagie review the past the case listen if it was up to Donnie we would
01:03be slandering good names like Rob Thompson for sending out Taiwan Walker
01:07last night but we'll get to that in a little bit so as we still focus on MLB
01:13even if it's not quite front and center for the entirety of the sports landscape
01:17this weekend or even on this Thursday we touch them all in the daily basis
01:27Craig last night in the Twin Cities the sweep complete for the Atlanta Braves
01:32they take all three against Minnesota first two games a ton of offense
01:37yesterday they turned a crissail 15 wins this year tied for the most in the bigs
01:41alongside Tarek scuba lowers the ERA to a 2 5 8 number that's the best in MLB he
01:49is running away with the National League Cy Young Award in Atlanta wins all three
01:54games in Minneapolis Craig a Braves team that has dealt with a litany of injuries
01:59this year but is Atlanta starting to figure things out entering the final
02:04month of this regular season they're hanging in there the National League
02:09manager of the year market is very interesting at this point too because if
02:13Atlanta was to get Ben in the 90 some-odd win mark you could really make
02:19the case that this may be Brian Snickers best job as manager of the
02:24Atlanta Braves they've lost players like no other team in the big leagues now yes
02:27they're getting incredible performances out of their pitching staff Shwell and
02:31Bach where they called up all of a sudden he's a big player on that team we
02:35know Chris sales had a great year and then on top of it I think the biggest
02:38surprise of all is the player who has carried and let me say has carried the
02:43Atlanta Braves offensively Marcelo Zuna in and out every single night it's just
02:48a not a starter to me to see him see him hit 3040 home runs but the batting
02:52average is up a couple of years he's gonna be a free agent again so you give
02:57credit to Atlanta for hanging in there I mean I don't think they're going deep
03:00into the postseason with all the losses that they've had but you can't put
03:03anything past them right now no four games coming up against the Philadelphia
03:08Phillies in Philadelphia could help determine who wins the NL East but if we
03:11are taking a look here at some of the odds markets to win the Cy Young in the
03:15NL and also the rookie of the year it's Chris sale now as a decided favorite
03:19here minus 650 price of the fan blue sportsbook followed by Wheeler and
03:22Hunter green if we're looking at the National League rookie of the year
03:25markets here it's Jackson Merrill at a minus 280 price followed by Paul Skeens
03:30at a two-to-one price looks like the Cy Young award is basically wrapped up in
03:33sales favor but that Merrill Skeens you know intrigue down the stretch could
03:38just be Merrill's playing good baseball and will continue to play good baseball
03:42in schemes maybe he doesn't even finish the season because the Pittsburgh Pirates
03:46hang it up for him yeah they're really not talking a lot about this at this
03:50point because we're still at the stage of the season Donnie where tickets are
03:54still sold in Pittsburgh so true you know it's it's kind of hard right now at
03:58the end of August to say the last two weeks of the season you're not gonna see
04:01schemes pitch the other thing that's really hurt him I know it doesn't really
04:04matter in terms of metrics or stats or the way that people vote but it is kind
04:08of crushing to see him go deep into these games and then the bullpen
04:10completely gives it up and so I don't think that's helping his case at all but
04:14but again it is still open that race is still open if for some reason schemes
04:19was good toe-to-toe at the end of the season and Merrill was the slump over
04:22the next few weeks these odds would get tighter as far as Wheeler goes yeah I do
04:25think at this point it is open and shut the funny thing to me is to see how deep
04:30the odds are for the third pitcher on that board was with 100 green being 55
04:34to 1 and not pitching so it just kind of tells you figure at this point who is
04:38going to win the Cy Young yeah it's gonna be sale in the end the Buccos were
04:42two games above 500 at the end of July still in the National League wildcard
04:47chase they are now just 7 and 18 in a month of August and yesterday I thought
04:53represented what schemes is outlook is for the final few weeks of this MLB
04:58season five innings of work only 82 pitches left the game in Pittsburgh had
05:02an 8-3 lead and then of course the Cubbies rallied scoring 11 unanswered in
05:08the final three innings to win 14 to 10 over Pittsburgh Craig the American
05:13League Central has also seen its race for the divisional top spot he up the
05:18Guardians avoid a four-game sweep against Kansas City yesterday at home
05:22rallying in the seventh against KC but the Royals and the Guardians entered
05:27yesterday type the top spot in the AL Central when all is said and done at the
05:32end of September into October who wins this division yeah I think it's gonna be
05:37the Royals I do I feel like the Royals are playing the best baseball doesn't
05:40really matter what happened in April in May anymore it happens what matters now
05:44twins clearly getting swept losing three home games that's gonna come back to
05:49sting them in the end I'm not gonna discount Cleveland at all they have the
05:52best player on that board in Jose Ramirez so if one player can carry a
05:57team it's gonna be him but I probably would say that the Royals who made all
06:01those offseason moves that people looked at and said Seth Lugo what is that all
06:05about what are you doing yeah I mean it's it's worked out for them they've
06:09gotten good offensive performances to Michael Massey's been a nice surprise
06:13for them so yeah I'll probably say that by the way goes this going down to the
06:17last day of the season I think but I think it'll be the Royals in the end
06:19it'll be fun rubber mats some baseball today out in the desert in Phoenix
06:25yesterday another blown save from Edwin Diaz who has struggled this year for the
06:30Mets Corbin Carroll a grand salami in the home half of the eighth for Arizona
06:35to rally so it's the rubber match between the D backs and the Mets
06:38Arizona a slight favorite both of these teams Greg thick in the National League
06:43wild-card chase but the Mets on the outside looking in Arizona in the top
06:47spot so does New York have much life left in that NL wild-card race
06:52they're alive maybe David Peterson has pitched really well you know this is a
06:56very tough game to call you saw the odds there guys I mean this is the kind of
07:00game you check back in the fifth inning you see the Mets with a lead you may go
07:04with the plus money the other way I'll pass on this one but it should be
07:07competitive yeah it should be and a significant game today out in Phoenix
07:12between the D backs and the Mets Craig we'll see on Newswire in just about 40
07:16minutes more on the early line comes away on next a very important four game
07:21divisional set starts on this Thursday night at the bank in Philadelphia
07:26between the Braves and the Phil's the final time these two clubs will meet up
07:31this year in the 2024 regular season Philadelphia is a home favorite tonight
07:37at minus 154 the Phil's unable to sweep the scrolls yesterday they got plank 10
07:43nothing but they did win the first two games of the series they had won nine of
07:47their last 13 before last night's loss to Houston the Braves coming off a sweep
07:53in Minneapolis they continue the road trip tonight in Philly an important
07:58opener for a significant four game set this weekend DRS in Philadelphia what do
08:04you expect yeah you're taking a look at that price point I know a lot of people
08:07won't be saying like oh that's really too high for the Philadelphia Phillies
08:10at this point I do disagree now granted if you're betting the Phillies would you
08:13like that price point lower yes you would but the plus 128 I don't think is
08:17viable for me tonight from an Atlanta Braves perspective if we're looking from
08:21a pitcher to pitcher matchup the Phillies do have the better pitcher on
08:23the mountain a Charlie Morton just your average pitcher aging veteran here
08:27looking to eat up innings he struggled all season long with right-handed
08:31batters you get a plethora of them tonight from the Philadelphia Phillies
08:34and also from an embarrassing performance yesterday you know the
08:37Phillies will be locked in and Christopher Sanchez has been a decent
08:40pitcher over the last 60 days his ERA Ben is a little bit high but it's x-fifth
08:44numbers coming in certainly manageable around let me just see that three point
08:47four six so that works out in his favor I do think the Phillies are the better
08:51team tonight and yes it is hard to take a team fresh off of getting waxed by the
08:55Astros we have to remind yourselves they did win that series and also you take a
08:59look at Atlanta Braves team on the road had a great series against the Minnesota
09:02Twins this is playoff atmosphere this is playoff baseball if you look at the 1
09:06through 9 the Phillies have it better the starting pitcher the Phillies are
09:09better as an overall team they're better and they're home tonight they should be
09:13able to win this game so yesterday would have been great if the Phillies 110 to
09:16nothing but they didn't I think they bounced back in a big way tonight and
09:19secure a victory in game number one of this four game set against the Atlanta
09:22Braves these two teams met last week in Atlanta the Braves 1 2 of 3 to take the
09:28set including that series victory the Braves have won nine of their last 11 in
09:33fact the Braves have played the Phillies nine times this year they've taken six
09:38of those nine now it's still a substantial lead for Philadelphia in
09:42the National League East a five game lead for the Phil's minus 1150 to win
09:47the division and National League East crown that Atlanta has claimed the last
09:51six years in a row in MLB that not really in question unless things go
09:57haywire in this four game set Atlanta playing good baseball and despite not
10:02sweeping the Astros yesterday Philadelphia nine and five in their last
10:0714 the rubber match tonight out in Los Angeles it is late night in LA at the
10:12ravine between the Dodgers and the Orioles Baltimore one game number one LA
10:19responding last night six to four some sloppy defense yesterday four errors
10:23combined between the two clubs three from the O's the Dodgers a minus 154
10:29favorite tonight total at nine two young arms on the bump Bobby Miller for LA
10:34Cade Povich for Baltimore don't be afraid of that nine and a half tonight I
10:38think we do get runs you take a look at Cade Povich six starts over the past six
10:42weeks here or excuse me six starts over the past 60 days 27 innings pitched so
10:46that means he's not going all that deep into these games and rightfully so in
10:49ERA over those 60 days been close to eight and an x-fifth number at a
10:53paltry six point one one we're expecting some runs there out of the Los Angeles
10:59Dodgers offense flip it over to the Baltimore Orioles Bobby Miller has
11:02really struggled this year a hundred eighty batters he's faced in total been
11:05a 250 ISO and awaited on base percentage of 411 combined if we just
11:09focus on his path month in Major League Baseball 25 right-handed batters he's
11:13faced how about a 417 ISO and awaited on base percentage of 501 two very good
11:18lineups night against questionable pitchers it is a pitcher's ballpark we
11:21get it it will be a playoff atmosphere with these two teams but I do think they
11:25can get double-digit runs tonight so I'll take the over on the nine and a
11:28half the Dodgers have won seven of their last nine again the O's pretty mediocre
11:33since the break and even 519 and 19 just 12 and 13 in the month of August they
11:39trail the Yankees by a full game for the top spot in the AL East the Astros
11:44entered yesterday series finale in Philly having dropped six of their last
11:49eight they avoid this week Kansas City was looking for a four-game sweep in the
11:53land they lose the game they were up five to two at the end of six Cleveland
11:59stormed back in the seventh minus 156 the number today in favor of this rose
12:03in H town total of eight to playoff teams in the American League what do you
12:09like yeah just to keep this short 17 pitchers on the card today that have
12:13rated guess who's five and number six on the card that's these two pitchers
12:16tonight that's Brown and singer playoff atmosphere in Houston that eight I'm not
12:20so sure we get to nine runs here I'll lean on the under in this spot I like
12:25that look DRS Hunter Brown on the bump Brady Singer on the other side for KC
12:31some more prop perspective thoughts on this Thursday from SportsGrip Tom
12:36look at the jacket and the monitor behind his head he joins us here for a
12:42Thursday prop perspective on the early line all across the Spiz Grizz he is Tom
12:48Donnie's on the right side and I am Ben plenty to get to here today with the
12:52jack-of-all-trades that is Vecchio a season-long prop in the National
12:57Football League one week out from the season debut in the NFL between the
13:01Chiefs and the Ravens some early thoughts on that game seven days away
13:06and of course it's another day in Major League Baseball
13:09Vecchio are you ready to do all of those things here on the early line yeah I'm
13:14certainly ready to go thanks for having me we know that rosters have been cut
13:18down we know what the final or mostly with the final rosters will look like
13:22wrapping up some season-long props baseball let's let's get to it so let's
13:27talk one of those season-long props to begin year number two for Derek Carr in
13:33the Big Easy as the starting quarterback for the Saints year number one wasn't
13:37necessarily successful offensively but the pieces remain in NOLA Tom what is
13:44your expectation for Carr as the signal caller of the Saints this year yeah my
13:49expectations are pretty modest overall and frankly my favorite proffer him is
13:54gonna be under 21 and a half passing touchdowns you know we've seen some
13:58questionable decision-making and and questionable outcomes from Derek Carr but
14:03there's not just about him this about the offense overall they have a bottom
14:0610 offensive line which is never good when we do have a quarterback that does
14:09you know present some inconsistency they do a very favorable strength of schedule
14:13which obviously pointing in the right direction but regardless of the strength
14:16of schedule the offense around him is extremely questionable I think maybe one
14:21of the weakest in the league Chris Alave is awesome I am extremely high on
14:25him long term but outside of him when it comes to the passing their backfield
14:29with Kamara Kendrick Miller Jamal Williams I think it's fine but the
14:32receiving option that there's ultimately about highly questionable Rashid Shaheed
14:36I think he could have a breakout year but after him AT Perry to Juan Johnson
14:40tight I taste some Hill and Foster Moreau like we're not dealing with like
14:44an amazing receiving core outside of a lobby so if the opposing defense can
14:48shut down a lobby like what's the passing expectation gonna look like for
14:52Derek Carr so that just leads me to under 21 and a half passing touchdowns I
14:56think a lobby can be great on a week basis I will certainly be interested in
14:59this touchdown props but I don't expect car to have a massive year yeah I agree
15:04with you that too Tom because you're taking a look from a perspective where
15:07if you come out of the game inside the five-yard line a couple times here that
15:10three to four touchdowns that taste some Hill steals could be the difference
15:13between 21 and a half touchdowns to the over or under so I do like that look at
15:17it here but we are one week away from the NFL getting started and that's the
15:20Baltimore Ravens taking on the Kansas City Chiefs 820 start this line bouncing
15:25between two and a half and threes here it probably will stay at that three
15:29level I would assume by next week do we have any early looks between these two a
15:33rematch of the AFC championship game I wouldn't be surprised if we see a
15:39somewhat similar game to what we saw last year opening when the Lions came
15:43out with the victory people are gonna say oh the Chiefs done no the Chiefs
15:47aren't done that's never gonna happen so I don't mind taking the Ravens them
15:51exacting a little bit of revenge maybe they cover they keep it close probably
15:55leaning with the under as well I'll certainly be looking to Z flowers for a
15:58touchdown and see you're worthy getting on the board nice and early for the
16:01Chiefs we know the Hollywood Brown is out so flowers at plus 195 for a
16:06touchdown worthy a plus 160 I think could be a nice way to start the season
16:10nice when you look at the Kansas City Chiefs they have only been a home
16:13underdog four times since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting
16:18quarterback in Arrowhead they were a road underdog in Baltimore for the AFC
16:23championship game last year and of course won outright they won their
16:27second consecutive Super Bowl their third Lombardi trophy in the last five
16:32seasons Vecchio as you look at the Ravens and the Chiefs and the overall
16:35outlook for 2024 big picture two best prices to win the AFC and the AFC
16:41championship game rematch from last year in the very first game of this year if I
16:46gave you the option would you bet on both of these teams being back in the
16:50AFC title game this year just one of the two or neither of the two which would
16:56you wager on it would be one of the two and that would be with the Chiefs I
17:01think that is pretty easy to say you know I think the Ravens are gonna be in
17:05for a good season I have a slight amount of interest in actually under 10
17:08and a half wins for them I think them ending with 10 is very reasonable they
17:11have the fourth toughest strength of schedule right now so they're making the
17:15playoffs sure lock that up I think that's fine Chiefs obviously winning
17:18their division that's totally fine coming to the playoffs though the Ravens
17:22if they don't have home field maybe they don't win that division certainly be
17:26tough but them having to face some combination of the Bills the Dolphins
17:31the Bengals maybe the Jets like that's not going to be an easy road if they
17:34don't have a first-round buy so I'll side with the Chiefs I think I'll just
17:38play it safe with that one as we've seen time and time again well and by the way
17:42we'll see a couple MVP candidates next Thursday night but the NFL MVP award
17:46otherwise known as the best quarterback in the NFL award is followed the Holmes
17:50Allen Stroud burrow and hurts are we seeing the top of this table here going
17:55to be able to take down an MVP or there any long shots Tom that you might want
17:58to think about being a possible MVP candidate this season I think it likely
18:02comes from that top group maybe we can throw love in there just as a little bit
18:07of a longer shot he has a nice step forward some really good surrounding
18:10pieces a part of me wants to take Dak Prescott just because I want to see this
18:15like revenge narrative they didn't pay him he has this monster season but I
18:18ultimately can't trust the Dallas Cowboys to do basically anything right
18:22so I don't want to trust Dak Prescott but that number is certainly interesting
18:26along with a narrative which I can get behind if if push comes to shove a little
18:32bit of a prove-it year perhaps Jerry Jones telling the media yesterday
18:36contract talks with Dak Prescott remain unchanged which means no new deal being
18:42signed which more than likely means Dak will enter 2024 under the final year of
18:47his contract at the star now we go to a another sport that's the MLB diamond on
18:53this Thursday to really solid American League teams that we would consider
18:58contenders for the pennant at this moment the Royals a little bit
19:02unproven but the Astros certainly that playoff pedigree Houston a home favorite
19:07today against KC Vecchio what's your play in H town that's going to be Brady
19:14Singer under four and a half strikeouts sing a little bit of plus money he's got
19:18a relatively modest 22.9 percent strikeout rate overall Houston right now
19:21they are just getting more and more disciplined at the plate with their
19:24current active roster they were 17.7 percent striker ever versus righties
19:28that is the lowest second lowest in the league Brady Singer doesn't go super
19:31deep in this into games overall you guys spoke about this in the last segment I'm
19:35fully on board with the under in this one pure pitchers duel in this one not a
19:39whole lot of offense you know maybe a few hits here and there I think there's
19:42gonna be some pivotal big hits but a true playoff type atmosphere give me
19:45Brady Singer under four and a half strikeouts take a look at the night cap
19:49tonight 1010 start on the west coast Baltimore and Los Angeles Povitz
19:52versus Miller not the greatest pitching matchup overall total listed at 9 but a
19:56favorite for the Dodgers at minus 154 what's a good look here for that
20:00Dodgers Baltimore game that's keeping it super simple with Mookie Betts for 2
20:05plus total bases you know Kate Povich I know he was a high prospect or a highly
20:09rated prospect for the Orioles but you know not been good this year 48 in the
20:13sample size 3d 9 will be allowed to write he's a 537 sluggy so slugging
20:18allowed so let's just take Mookie Betts at a little bit of plus money awesome
20:21versus lefties with a 150 WRC plus he's got a 326 bad he's a 6.7 strikeout rate
20:26versus lefties which is insanely low so he doesn't waste chances we know that
20:29Freddie Freeman and Will Smith are gonna be behind him
20:32Ohtani will probably already be on base so they can't pitch around Mookie super
20:36simple with Mookie for 2 plus total bases tonight I like that look out in LA
20:41it's the rubber mat between the Dodgers and the O's Tom in this final minute
20:44it's the opening night in Philadelphia of a four game set between the Phillies
20:48and the Braves a divisional duel a significant series Philly still has a
20:53five game lead for the top spot in the division but the Braves have won nine of
20:57their last eleven including a series victory at home last week over the
21:02fight Philly a home favorite tonight total of eight and a half how does this
21:07series get started tonight at the bank I get started with a lack of scoring you
21:12know both pitchers are medium contact ground ball pitchers specifically
21:16Sanchez like a very heavy medium contact pitcher does not allow fly
21:20balls does not allow a lot of hard contact so super fun series like
21:25especially in a weird time of baseball before we're actually at like the
21:28stretch run but a pure lack of scoring tonight between this one the Royals
21:32series as well good pitchers on the mound tonight it mourns I was a little
21:36bit worse I'll take the Phillies winning the series I'll take the Phillies
21:38winning tonight but under eight and a half overall that's music to Donny
21:43right sides ears again way to endear yourselves to your new co-workers we
21:48appreciate you Tom Vecchio thank you for being