MLB Best Bets: Thursday's Slate, Focus on Nationals Showdown
Transcript
00:00It was just a two-game set this week between the Phillies and the Marlins.
00:04The Phillies did split, courtesy of a Kyle Schwarbaum grand salami, to take Game 2 over
00:11Miami.
00:12The Phillies remain at home against a divisional foe for the next few days against the Washington
00:17Nationals.
00:18Mark Zinno here for a second straight segment for his daily plays around this Thursday MLB
00:24slate.
00:25Only seven games on this Thursday MLB card, and one of the strongest lines, a minus 270
00:31number in favor of Philadelphia, with Zach Wheeler on the bump against the Nats.
00:36The total is 8.
00:38Is the price, nearly $3, in favor of the Phitons justified today at the bank?
00:44It is, just because of Zach Wheeler's numbers at home, 2-4-8 ERA opposing batters batting
00:49just 187 against him.
00:52He's already faced the Nats this year, going seven innings, allowing just two runs and
00:55three hits.
00:57So the number is right for Zach Wheeler when it comes to him pitching at home this year,
01:02a guy who's second in the Cy Young voting.
01:04And plus, you also have the Phillies going up against left-hander Mitchell Parker.
01:07Yeah, in case you haven't noticed, the Phillies' numbers against lefties this season scored
01:11the second most runs, hit the second most home runs of lefties at home, and they're
01:14top 10 in OPS and WRC Plus at home this season.
01:18Phillies 5-1 against the Nats this year so far, four of those five wins, been by two
01:22runs or more.
01:23The price is right.
01:24Phillies minus one and a half to play.
01:25Yeah, a little bit better vibe soon in Philadelphia.
01:28Looked like another loss to the Marlins.
01:30They pulled that one out.
01:31Schwarberg, Grand Slam, bullpen holds it down.
01:33Now you got your stopper on the mound today.
01:35We'll see if you get on a win streak for the Philadelphia Phillies.
01:37Boston and Baltimore also tonight, 635 Eastern, Pavetta versus Eflin.
01:42Favorite here for Baltimore.
01:43Actually opened up at a minus-152 price overnight.
01:46It's now showing live at a minus-136 price, so a little bit of a dip there for the Orioles,
01:50a total of eight and a half.
01:52Two good teams at the plate here.
01:53What gives tonight down in Baltimore?
01:55Guys, I am officially Captain Ahab when it comes to the Baltimore Orioles going down
02:00with this damn ship because the last two nights, they've had Orioles against the Nationals
02:05in the first five and lost that one when Trevor Rodgers got rocked.
02:08And last night, I bet the Orioles team total over to watch them in the seventh inning not
02:12push a runner across with two outs in the eighth, two outs in the seventh, and then
02:17do it again in the eighth to not get that fifth run.
02:19So what are we doing here, guys?
02:21We are going to go down with the ship.
02:22We're going to take the over, eight and a half in this game.
02:25Why?
02:26Because the Orioles are top 10 in batting average OPS and WRC Plus at home.
02:30They've hit the second most home runs.
02:32They've scored the sixth most runs.
02:34Red Sox starter Nick Pavetta has been better on the road this year, but his last four starts
02:38a little rough, posting a 5-4-0 ERA.
02:41Hasn't faced the Birds this year, so maybe a little bit of a mixed bag, but the Red Sox
02:44bullpen guy has been taxed in that series with the Rangers going to extra innings twice
02:48losing yesterday.
02:50So the Orioles will have at least eight, if not nine, at-bats to get this thing going.
02:54Jack Leffin starts the Baltimore.
02:56Now, he's already faced the Red Sox this year in a Tampa Bay Rays uniform.
03:01Didn't go well for him in this start.
03:03Last year, made two starts against him.
03:04Didn't go well there either to an ERA near seven.
03:08The Red Sox on the road this year.
03:11Number two in runs, I'm sorry, number three in runs scored, number four in home runs hit,
03:16and top three in batting average OPS and WRC Plus on the road this year.
03:21I'm going down with this ship.
03:22If we don't get nine runs tonight between these two teams, I may just call it quits.
03:27The Red Sox had an opportunity for a Fenway sweep over the Rangers in the midweek, but
03:32Wyatt Langford, the rookie for Texas, had other ideas in the top of the ninth, a three-run
03:37bomb that sent it to extras, and Texas takes advantage to avoid the sweep.
03:43The Red Sox two games back of the Royals for the third and final A wild-card spot.
03:48The Mets two games back of the Braves for the third and final National League wild-card
03:53spot after a 9-1 victory yesterday against the A's.
03:58It's the rubber match, Dave Baseball on a Thursday at Citi Field in Flushing.
04:02The Mets close to a $2 favorite.
04:06Zinno, will New York take the rubber match and the midweek set against Oakland?
04:13It's a tough call.
04:15I cut this game in half, and believe it or not, in the first five here.
04:21Just knowing that Montana doesn't feel like he is all that reliable of a starter.
04:28When you start to look at Oakland and what they've done against left-handed pitching
04:33since the beginning of July, they've actually done really, really well, which has been shocking
04:38that they've been able to hit lefties as good as they have.
04:42They're top 10 in OPS and WRC Plus against lefties since July 1st, so it's not really
04:46a great setup for the Mets here.
04:49The A's bullpen isn't bad, so even if Mitch Spence is shaking early, you may be able to
04:54get some luck here with the A's bats to get to Quintana.
04:5821-14 since July began.
05:02The Oakland Athletics once a laughingstock in Major League Baseball.
05:06Not necessarily the case this year.
05:09Still 51-70 and 19 games below .500, but still not as bad as maybe we thought.
05:15You know, have a wonderful rest of your Thursday.
05:19Hour 3 on the Early Line is up next.
05:26The fastest 2-300.
05:29Only 955 career games for Aaron Judge.
05:34The least amount of at-bats as well in front of the Bambino, Babe Ruth.
05:40300 career home runs for Aaron Judge last night in Chicago against the White Sox.
05:47When you look at the history that Aaron Judge has already accomplished, Craig, where does
05:51this stack up?
05:53Look, we know where this is headed as long as he is healthy for the next several years.
05:58He's headed to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, will be a Yankee lifer.
06:01I mean, I think all those things are fair at this point.
06:05When you're talking about a player that big in stature, you're just worried about injuries.
06:10Let's just be honest.
06:11Very few comparative players to Judge's height, his weight, his body mass.
06:18Very few of those guys, Ben, are playing 17 years in such in Major League Baseball.
06:23But, you know, and that being said, look, I think he is a mold breaker.
06:27You've seen over the last couple of years, he's been healthier than he has in years past.
06:32And so certainly if he continues to play like this, gets to the 500 home run mark, I think
06:36he's ticketed for the Hall of Fame.
06:39Yeah, we'll see what they do down the stretch, both him and Soto.
06:41Certainly dominant.
06:42How about last night, Craig?
06:43You take a look at, hey, let's walk Soto to get the Judge.
06:45My goodness, did they end up paying for that at the end of, again, two great hitters here.
06:49You got to pick your poison.
06:50They chose Judge.
06:51Didn't work out in their favor.
06:52Yesterday, the Dodgers' first inning worked out in their favor, Craig, 3-0 lead with Walker
06:56Buehler on the mound.
06:57But it didn't end up in a victory here.
06:59Buehler goes 3-3 innings pitch, only gives up one earned run, but four walks in that
07:03space, they lose that game.
07:05Can't win them all.
07:06They did salvage a victory.
07:08That's what the Brewers did.
07:09But what are we looking from Walker Buehler?
07:10Maybe the expectations of Buehler down the stretch for the Dodgers.
07:13Yeah, we just haven't seen Buehler at his best in two years.
07:17So, you know, we didn't see it again last night.
07:19And look, it just seems like he's one of those pitchers.
07:22Donnie, when pitchers have these injuries, Tommy Johns, things like that, it feels like
07:26out of every, would you say, five, six guys, there's one that doesn't come all the way
07:31back or at least initially.
07:32And he is unfortunately one of those 10, 20 percenters that just doesn't seem like he's
07:36all the way back from his injury issues.
07:39But provided he's got another month to get right, I don't think the Dodgers are going
07:42to be counting on more than four innings from him and just kind of go to the bullpen at
07:46that point.
07:47I think that's what they're hoping for over the next few starts.
07:49But really, the most interesting play of the game, I don't know if you guys caught this,
07:54was when Dave Roberts had an appeal because Clayton Kershaw saw the guy on second base,
07:58the runner for the Brewers, not touch the bag.
07:59They appealed it during the game because of Kershaw, and they ended up winning the appeal
08:03and getting the guy out.
08:04I know they didn't win the game, but it just shows you what Kershaw means to the team in
08:07the dugout.
08:08A great start on Monday for Kersh and Mookie Betts' return.
08:13Two of the three have gone to L.A.
08:15The Brewers victorious yesterday, the fourth and final game in Wisconsin on this Thursday.
08:21Craig, as we go elsewhere around Major League Baseball, the National League is getting really
08:27interesting.
08:28For a very long time, it seemed as though it would be a race for the number one overall
08:32spot between the Philadelphia Phillies and the L.A.
08:35Dodgers. The Dodgers have moved in front ever so slightly in front of Philadelphia, but
08:41the Dodgers being tested not only at the top, but within their own division by the San
08:47Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks, only two and a half games back at the end
08:53of the regular season.
08:54Craig, in your estimation, who's that number one overall seed in the NL?
08:58Yeah, I still think it's probably going to end up being the Dodgers.
09:01And Philly's been a little bit of hit or miss lately.
09:03It seems like when they have Wheeler pitching or Nola pitching, everything goes fine.
09:07And then beyond that, it's like back to those old issues they've had.
09:10Ranger Suarez getting healthy, obviously a big key for them as well.
09:13You know, but I wonder how Major League Baseball is going to feel about this, guys, because
09:17it does seem like those five teams that you showed on the graphic because of the month
09:21that they've had at the end of July and August are going to make the postseason.
09:24Like, would you say right now that any team is going to surpass Arizona?
09:28You know, Milwaukee is going to win the division.
09:30I mean, San Diego feels like they're close to a lock to be the five or six seed.
09:35So you're just looking at one final seed.
09:37And will it be the Braves?
09:39Will it be the Mets?
09:39And then, you know, don't look now, but all of a sudden the Cincinnati Reds are doing
09:42what they did last year, too.
09:44So maybe that's the race to watch is the final seed in the NL.
09:48Yeah, the NL West is incredible.
09:49Throughout those months of late, let's just say May and early June, looks like the Dodgers
09:52would run away with it.
09:53Now you're questioning if the Dodgers can actually win because of how tough those two
09:56teams have been playing.
09:57If we take a look at Boston and Baltimore here, the AL East will go to the opposite
10:01coast. They'll tangle tonight.
10:03Pavetta versus Eflin, favorite here for the Baltimore Orioles, total of eight and a half.
10:07I like both of these lineups.
10:08What do you think it's like between Boston and Baltimore?
10:11Yeah, you know, I think one potential play for me today would be to, you know, and I
10:17like games like this where you can play the plus 200s or plus 300s, Donnie.
10:21You know, Nick Pavetta, who's had such a really good season.
10:24I don't know what is going on with him.
10:25He's given up six home runs in the last three games.
10:28So maybe this is the Santander plus 280 or Colton Kauser plus 250, 263 plus 300.
10:35I think I'm going to just head over to the Orioles home run props today, because again,
10:39if Pavetta is going to average giving up two home runs a game, hasn't been doing that all
10:43season. I don't know if it's the weather or just not enough life on the fastball.
10:47Again, I don't know the metrics for that.
10:48But take a look at Pavetta in the last three games.
10:50How do you not play at Oriole to hit a home run today?
10:54Anthony Santander, 36 home runs this year for Baltimore, third most in MLB, only behind
11:02Aaron Judge, who has 43 and a substantial advantage, and Shohei Otani, who has 37.
11:07The Yankees, a half game lead over Baltimore right now in the American League East, another
11:12great divisional race to watch down the stretch.
11:15Craig Misch, thank you so much for your time, as always.
11:18See you on Newswire starting at 11 a.m.
11:21A seven game Thursday slate around Major League Baseball in these next two minutes before
11:26Donnie gets a much needed two minute break before the money line.
11:30We are going to preview all seven games around MLB on this Thursday, including the fourth
11:38and final during the afternoon hours in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, between the Dodgers and the
11:44Brewers. L.A.
11:45victorious in the first two games of the set.
11:48Sloppy defense, really, on both sides, but the Dodgers recording three errors yesterday
11:52cost them the game.
11:53Milwaukee wins five to four to scratch across its first win of this four game series, the
11:59fourth and final today, where the Dodgers remain a road favorite.
12:02Jack Flaherty makes his third start in a Dodgers uniform.
12:06Total is at eight.
12:07What do you like in the fourth and final game of the set in Milwaukee?
12:11Yeah, we might be looking at that afternoon under action.
12:14I don't know if he gets the nine runs today, because if we are taking a look at the short
12:17slate, the best pitcher on the card, you know who it is?
12:19It's Jack Flaherty here of the Los Angeles Dodgers, an expert modest over the past 60
12:23days of a 76 and ERA of two point five six manageable Sierra and XFIP numbers.
12:28He should be able to handle his business if we're just looking at the past 30 days here
12:32out of Flaherty's face.
12:33Ninety six batters, Ben, a one twenty one ice on a two sixty seven weighted on base
12:38percentage. We flip it over to the Dodgers who lost yesterday, hoping not to lose this
12:42game and sort of spoil what they could have had winning three out of four games in
12:45Milwaukee. That would be pretty nice.
12:47First five guys in that lineup have absolutely been hammering right handed pitching.
12:51Tobias Myers of the right handed pitcher on the mound today for the Brewers.
12:54He actually struggles a bit with left handed batters, which isn't a great thing with
12:57Otani and Freeman staring you down.
12:59And also, how about Gavin Lux?
13:01Seventy at bats as a left handed batter against right handed pitching over the past 30
13:05days, a three or six ice on a four sixty nine weighted on base percentage.
13:09Living up to that hype this year.
13:11I think the Dodgers obviously get the victory here.
13:14They're a favorite and a decent one here, but I also think the under makes a lot of
13:17sense in the afternoon in Milwaukee today.
13:20Flaherty nine and five overall this year with a two nine seven ERA.
13:25He has won both of the starts he has made with Los Angeles, despite giving up four earned
13:31in his most recent start over the weekend against Pittsburgh.
13:34Did strike out ten pirates, though, in that outing.
13:37So the Dodgers, a half game lead at this moment for the best record in the National
13:41League. The Phillies finally a win yesterday, nine to five, the victory over the fish.
13:47They were down early.
13:48Kyle Schwerber stepping up when needed.
13:51Zach Wheeler on the bump tonight at home inside Citizens Bank ballpark at a minus 270
13:58price. DRS, what is the significance of Philly breaking out of this summer slump when you
14:03have guys like Zach Wheeler on the mound?
14:06Yeah, it's really big.
14:08And also you're taking a look at last time Zach Wheeler's on the mound, I believe, was
14:11I want to say a Sunday afternoon, maybe in Seattle, where he had to be that stopper goes
14:15eight innings pitched.
14:16And now you see him return back to the mound at home.
14:18And it's like, hey, man, we got to be absolutely dominant again.
14:22And yesterday the Phillies were down five to two in that game to a bad Marlins team.
14:26One swing of the bat by Kyle Schwerber was a grand slam, sort of got him out of that
14:30funk. But we led to believe that.
14:31Yeah, I understand Zach Wheeler is great, but would we be surprised if this game ended up
14:35in the seventh inning, a one to one game and Wheeler's out of it?
14:38Now it's a de facto coin flip.
14:39The Phillies should win this game.
14:41Wheeler's the much better pitcher.
14:42The Phillies are playing for something down the stretch.
14:44The Nationals are not.
14:45But also, are you laying close to a three dollar price?
14:48I'm not doing that.
14:49So you try to take a look at where you can make some money with some plus money options.
14:53Mitchell Parker's a left handed pitcher, average at best.
14:56Lefty struggling against right handed batters.
14:57A tail as old as time.
14:59You take a look at that line of Alec Boehm right in the middle.
15:01And Nick Castellanos had very good numbers against left handed pitching over the past
15:05month, but also Schwerber is a lefty.
15:06He's annihilated left handed pitching over the past month, the 350 ISO and a 513 weighted
15:11on base percentage instead of taking the favorite, the Phillies, who I do think win.
15:15But I don't think laying that price point here, maybe a couple of RBI shots from the
15:19Phillies makes a little bit more sense.
15:21Zach Wheeler plus 220 right now, second best price to win the National League Cy Young
15:26Award behind Chris Sale, who's a minus 200 favorite.
15:29Wheeler has been great in his last two starts.
15:32The Philz did record a loss in his last one against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but not
15:37because Wheeler was bad, only allowing two earned over six innings of work.
15:43The Philz snapped that four game losing skid yesterday with the come from behind victory
15:47against Miami, but still just eight and 16 since the all star break.
15:52And now Philadelphia, a half game back of L.A.
15:56for that top spot in the National League.
15:59Fourth and final game of this extended midweek set out in San Francisco between the Giants
16:05and the Braves, Atlanta, a huge win yesterday.
16:09Michael Harris, the second returning to the lineup for the first time in two months and
16:13hit a home run in his first at bat in a game or in a series that went to extras in low
16:19scoring affairs, decided by just a single run in the first two nights.
16:23Last night, Atlanta winning big, of course, 13 to 2 the final.
16:28The Braves looking for a four game sweep.
16:32Will Atlanta accomplish that today as a slight road underdog?
16:36Max Freed on the bump for the Braves.
16:38On the other side, it's Logan Webb for the Giants.
16:41I'll take Logan Webb, and I think it's a bounce back performance coming today for the San
16:45Francisco Giants. Max Freed is his name.
16:47Well, he's been Max Fried the past two ballgames.
16:49Has it really shown up to what we actually anticipate him actually doing on that mound,
16:54which again leads into today struggling with lefty, struggling a little bit the righties.
16:58I'll take the better pitch on the mound today, and that is going to be Logan Webb of the
17:01San Francisco Giants.
17:02It'd be huge if Atlanta could escape with a victory.
17:05And typically, if Max Freed is on the mound, you get those great starts.
17:08But again, those last two starts, very questionable on the road.
17:11Getaway day, the one thing that we do like also, very tough to usually hit at night in
17:15San Francisco.
17:16That wasn't the case yesterday.
17:18The Marine layer won't be there, 70 degree temperatures as opposed to 60 degree temperatures.
17:22Wind still blowing out that center field at double digits, which is typical out in San
17:25Francisco.
17:26Typically, we do get runs, but I do think the San Francisco Giants bounce back today.
17:30I think they have the better pitch on the mound.
17:31I'll go that route.
17:33Total is dropping seven and a hook is what you saw on the screen.
17:37Now a seven flat at seven live on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
17:42You almost feel bad for the Giants.
17:44It's probably not the correct word to use, but San Francisco entered the final game of
17:48its weekend set looking for a sweep, and they had won 12 of their last 15, unable to accomplish
17:54it against the Tigers, losing by a single run.
17:57Lost the first two games of this series against Atlanta in extra innings by a single run yesterday.
18:02Hammered.
18:03The Braves have won three straight after dropping seven of their last eight games entering this
18:08series by the bay.
18:10Rubber match today, some day baseball up in Queens at city field, the Mets and the A's.
18:17If Donnie is correct and Logan Webb is good today for San Francisco, the Giants avoid
18:22a sweep.
18:23It will be a must-win type of game for the Mets to close to only a game behind Atlanta
18:28for the third and final National League wildcard spot.
18:31The line working in favor of the Amazons.
18:34Now a minus 180 home money line.
18:36Favorite total at eight and a half.
18:38What do you like for the rubber match against the A's?
18:40Yeah, Spence is an interesting pitcher on the mound today.
18:43Last 96 batters he's faced over the past month, a 140 ice on a weighted on base percentage
18:47of 304, which is very good.
18:48Analytically though, if we're looking at the card, there actually are some really good
18:52pitchers here.
18:53It's just a little bit unfair.
18:54I got him ranked 14th out of 15th pitchers.
18:56However, his exit minus is only a 103 slightly above average.
19:00I just trust that New York Mets lineup a little bit more 86 degree temperatures today in Queens
19:05should be able to be a decent hitting day.
19:07Now also looking at that Oakland Athletics lineup going up against Jose Quintana left
19:11handed pitcher.
19:12He's actually pretty have some pretty good splits here over the past 30 days, 95 batters
19:15he's faced been a 141 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 288.
19:19I look at the lineup today.
19:20There are some very good hitters against left-handed pitching in there, but I'm not
19:24finding Rooker in that lineup.
19:26I don't know if he got banged up a little bit yesterday or it's a day game just needs
19:29a scheduled day off.
19:30They've already released that and there we go.
19:32So he's on the paternity list.
19:33So that certainly hurts where, you know, he probably would have a legitimate chance to
19:37go yard today advantage, New York Mets.
19:39I think that they handle their business today and keep that offense in form.
19:42Like we saw yesterday, the two games in this set.
19:46So far, the winning team has scored nine runs.
19:49We could be in for some more offense today at Citi Field.
19:53The Mets ended a four-game skid with the win yesterday over Oakland, but they have still
19:58lost seven of their last 11, trying to play good baseball to keep pace with Atlanta in
20:04the National League wildcard chase.
20:05And again, the A's are not a great team.
20:08They're 19 games below 500.
20:10They're 51 and 70, but everybody expected Oakland to be like the White Sox this year.
20:15The Athletics have not been that 14 and nine since the all-star break 21 and 14 since the
20:22month of July began.
20:25So that's four of the seven games on the MLB card on this Thursday.
20:30The other three from the mind of Donny right side as the baseball breakdowns continue up
20:36next live right here on the early line on sports live right here on this Thursday on
20:42the early line on sports grid.
20:43We've got a seven-game Major League Baseball slate.
20:46We've hit the first four, now the next three.
20:49A divisional duel starts today inside Camden Yards between Baltimore and Boston.
20:55The O's a half game behind the Yankees now for the top overall spot in the American League
21:00East.
21:01Boston, two games back of Kansas City for the third and final American League wildcard
21:06position.
21:07The Red Sox had a chance to sweep the Rangers yesterday.
21:11Wyatt Langford, a three-run shot in the top of the ninth, sends the games to extras.
21:16Texas avoids the sweep.
21:18Baltimore a victory over the Nationals four to one to enter with a win.
21:24The O's are a home favorite today.
21:25Minus 136.
21:26Total eight and a half.
21:28What do you like for the opener in Baltimore?
21:30It seems like it is going to be a coin flip type of game and also today it's not a large
21:35card.
21:36Yesterday I had a crazy amount of bets again was profitable which was great to see but
21:38today I don't think we're going to get down with that much excitement because there are
21:41a lot of solid pitchers on the mound.
21:43You might look at this game and say to yourself, okay, Pavetta versus Eflin, two guys like
21:46what is it like a rematch in Philadelphia Phillies pitchers?
21:49That's been very good particularly here, Ben, over the past 60 days.
21:52Take a look at these numbers here analytically.
21:54Pavetta is an 80 XFIP minus number.
21:56Zach Eflin is an 88 XFIP minus number.
22:00Sierra numbers 317 and 383 both manageable here but there are two solid lineups here
22:05that you would love to get down on.
22:06But you take a look at Zach Eflin.
22:08ISO power number weighted on base percentage last 30 days, a 117 ISO and a 300 weighted
22:12on base percentage.
22:13That should hold pretty well here.
22:15If we go to the opposite side and take a look at Nick Pavetta, here's the interesting part.
22:18I just told you Pavetta is actually third on the card out of 14 pitchers with a very
22:22good XFIP minus.
22:23But take a look at this.
22:24You wouldn't know it by what's actually taking place on the diamond.
22:27The reason why he gets the bump is he's a great strikeout pitcher.
22:30He's actually struck out 42 percent of the left-handed batters that he's faced over the
22:34past month and 35 percent combined if you include lefty and righties.
22:39That's what keeps you.
22:40But look at this.
22:41ISO against 272, weighted on base percentage 337.
22:44If you just focus on right-handed batters going up against the right-handed Pavetta,
22:47a 381 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 459.
22:52So there's a reason why the Baltimore Orioles are going to be favored today.
22:55A, they're the better team, B, they're at home.
22:57But I do think those Nick Pavetta non-analytical numbers should be able to get caught up to
23:01tonight because that's a very good offense for the Baltimore Orioles.
23:05So maybe it's just the Orioles today and I might be snooping down maybe a couple RBI
23:09for them.
23:10But it is sort of a more of a coin flip game.
23:11But again, you're asking me who's going to win.
23:12I do think it's going to be Baltimore.
23:15So you had Anthony Santander from the mouth of Craig Misch to maybe hit a home run plus
23:20390.
23:21Yeah.
23:22He's got to get it.
23:23Yesterday he gave you Michael Massey.
23:24Michael Massey did not play in the game for Kansas City getting a rest day.
23:29So Craig giving out picks today.
23:31It's going to hit Santander plus 390.
23:35So the Red Sox looking up by two games at the Kansas City Royals for the third and final
23:40American League wildcard spot.
23:42Casey avoiding the sweep yesterday in Minnesota.
23:45Great outing out of Cole Reagans as the Royals avoid a sweep.
23:48But the twins playing pretty good baseball as of this moment in the second of the three
23:53wildcard positions around the AL.
23:56They make a trip to Arlington to take on the reigning World Series champs.
24:00The Rangers.
24:01Yes, they beat Boston yesterday to avoid the sweep, but Texas nine games below 500.
24:08They have lost 13 of its last 18.
24:11The reigning World Series champs in grave danger of missing out on the postseason this
24:16year unless they can turn things around quickly.
24:20They're booked as a home underdog today against the twins total of eight.
24:24What's the play in Arlington?
24:26Sounds like 10 games under 500 soon to be coming to the Texas Rangers here.
24:30The Minnesota twins got the better pitch on the mound.
24:32Bailey Ober, maybe not one of those household names that you love to bet on, but on the
24:36card today, he's number two overall exit.
24:38Minus numbers of 77.
24:39But how about this for you?
24:41Non-analytical guys.
24:42How about last 60 days, 1.76 ERA.
24:46Maybe that resonates a little bit more.
24:47If you take a look at just his last 101 batters, he's faced an 086 ISO and awaited on base
24:52percentage of 165 microscopic here.
24:56Let's flip it over to the other side.
24:57Cody Bradford, only 48 batters he's faced over the past 30 days, but really been struggling
25:02with right-handed batters to the tune of a 360 ISO and awaited on base percentage of
25:06416.
25:07You go right to that lineup today.
25:09Royce Lewis has great numbers against left-handed pitching.
25:12You also take a look at Kyle Farmer, limited at bats.
25:14He's done well.
25:15Christian Vasquez.
25:16I just think the Minnesota twins are the better team today with the better pitcher and a cheap
25:19price, even though it's on the road.
25:21Give me the twins.
25:23Yeah, I think it's a really good look DRS again, Minnesota minus 118, the twins trying
25:28to keep pace if at all possible with the guardians in the American league central, but Cleveland's
25:33won five straight games.
25:35The guardians have opened up a four and a half game advantage in that division third
25:39and final game between the tigers and the Mariners Seattle trying to keep pace in the
25:44American league West.
25:45They've now dropped back by two and a half games behind the Astros.
25:49The Tigers looking for a sweep in this three-game midweek set over Seattle in the Motor City,
25:55but the Mariners a road favorite today to Seattle avoid the sweep to the Tigers take
25:59all three.
26:01I think they do avoid the sweep.
26:02But if we're looking like Seattle hasn't been right at the plate in this series against
26:05Detroit.
26:06It is a pitcher's ballpark.
26:07I think that changes today.
26:08Fiedel is going to be on the mound really struggling over the past 30 days and quite
26:12frankly on the season.
26:13If you go seasonal against right-handed batters, he's got a 228 ISO power number to waited
26:18on base percentage of 392.
26:20If you just go to his last 50 batters and combined lefty and righty haters been it's
26:23a 262 ice went a 400 weighted on base percentage.
26:26Normally, we don't love that Mariners lineup.
26:28But today how about this outside of Mitch Garver the other eight anticipated guys in
26:33the lineup elevated ISO and waited on base percentages.
26:36They should win the game, but you know, it's even better here.
26:38They don't actually have to win just take the team total.
26:40I understand they haven't hit here.
26:42I believe they're going to hit in this game and really tackle that give me Seattle's team
26:46total to the over.
26:47I think that's a solid play in the afternoon.
26:50You know what?
26:51I'm going to be a nice guy.
26:52Let's give you an extra minute of a break after carrying the show for the first hour
26:56and a half.
26:57Enjoy the money line my friend and hold down the for tomorrow on a Friday.
27:00I've got a wedding this weekend.
27:02But before college football season begins, I mean, that's just I mean, you're already
27:08prepping at this point.
27:09Now some are saying this way you're going to might turn into a another wedding sometime
27:14down the line.
27:15Maybe I'm just going out here.
27:16I don't know.
27:17It's been a long morning.
27:18Who knows?
27:19It's been a real long morning.
27:20I got to show my girlfriend Chloe this clip now and put the pressure on me for a weekend
27:26away in California.
27:27Why?
27:28Because why didn't you?
27:29Santa Barbara?
27:30Yeah, ring shopping this morning.
27:31You showed up late.
27:32It happened.
27:33Yeah.
27:34Hey, let me take a look at that third or fourth ring.
27:35They try to upsell you here.
27:36We've all been there.
27:37It takes extra time.
27:38It happens, man.
27:39It does.
27:40So here I was trying to give you an extra minute and you're just slandering me.
27:41You want to close out the show.
27:42Yep.
27:43I mean, it's a tough morning here.
27:44My right earpiece is now officially out.
27:45It's been blinking all morning.
27:46Your boy's been putting in the work.
27:47Now he heads the radio.
27:48Ben closes down.
27:49Ben's off tomorrow.
27:50Your boy will be back in the studio.
27:51It's how we do it.
27:52It's football season.
27:53Right on the grid.
27:54Stay tuned for Ben Solo.