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00:00So here's where we stand in the National League. In both of the
00:06division series, we are tied up at one game apiece as we change
00:10venues for the first time in October in the MLB postseason.
00:15We will head to Citi Field tomorrow night where the
00:19Phillies DRS have the pitching advantage. Aranoa gets the start
00:23against Shawn Mania although Mania has been great for New
00:26York down the second half. The Phil's are a minus 142 favorite
00:31now having tied the series in walk-off fashion in game number
00:36two although the Mets did win game number one and the Phil's
00:40a slight road favorite ever so slightly for game number three
00:44tomorrow afternoon evening hours. Yeah, it's going to be
00:47fun to watch and I do agree with the Phillies being a minus
00:50142 favorite Ben because it is about pitching stats and it's
00:53about the totality of the season. We understand how well
00:55the Mets have played down the stretch and there's a lot to
00:57that. I've watched Phillies baseball and usually it's them
00:59not playing well all season long catching fire in August
01:02carrying through to September and hitting the heck out of the
01:05baseball in the month of October which the Mets can do
01:07but theoretically if you're looking to be honest, Phillies
01:09have every time they take the mound, the Phillies have the
01:11better pitcher. Bullpens, you could say even but on the
01:14totality of the season, the Phillies had a much better
01:16bullpen than the New York Mets and superstar per superstar in
01:19the lineup, it goes to the Philadelphia Phillies. So, I do
01:21agree even though technically, they don't have home field
01:24advantage anymore. The Phillies are the better team. It should
01:26be priced at that minus 142. I can agree on that. Yeah. So,
01:30that's where things stand. The Phillies did enter the set as a
01:33minus 188 favorite. Of course, the Mets have made it pretty
01:37competitive. Alright, DRS. Now, the other one in San Diego, the
01:42Padres, you could argue, have had the pitching advantage in
01:45every game, maybe outside of game number one. Certainly,
01:49last night, you Darvish versus Jack Clarity, there will be no
01:53argument for game three tomorrow as they head down the
01:56405 or the five or however you wanna get to San Diego from LA
02:02between the Padres and the Dodgers. Michael King who was
02:06great for San Diego to start the playoffs in their wild card
02:10set against Atlanta gets the nod tomorrow. San Diego minus
02:14144 for game three and an ever so slight favorite DRS despite
02:19not really having the home field to start not being the
02:23division winner but tying things at a game all as we get
02:27ready for game three tomorrow. Great. Now, look, I told you
02:30before the series started, the San Diego Padres going to win
02:33the series. Same way you talk about the Philadelphia Phillies
02:35by saying, every time we take the mound, it's going to be the
02:38Padres with the better pitcher on the mound. That goes a long
02:41distance. The the for star power, man per man, maybe the
02:45two best players in baseball on the Dodgers but neither one of
02:48them is pitching right now which includes Joey Otani which if he
02:51was in his form, he probably would be taking the mound in
02:54games one, two, or three and maybe giving you the advantage
02:56but Michael King has been so sensational and you look at the
02:59fan blue sportsbook to win game number three. It's minus 144.
03:02Now, you rewind this clock, Ben, 2 years and say, hold on.
03:05Walker Bueller's on the mound for the Dodgers. That's a
03:07stone cold Dodgers victory and they're the favorite in this
03:10game. No questions asked but we're still waiting on Walker
03:12Bueller to get back to pre-injury form and we're seeing
03:15Michael King as what Walker Bueller was just a few years
03:18ago for the Padres, excuse me, for the Dodgers who now sits on
03:21the Padres mound. He has been flawless and I expect him to be
03:24very good here. Now, yes, there's going to be crazy
03:27innings. There's going to be pitching performances that we
03:29expect and pitching performances that we don't
03:31expect here but I do agree the Padres should be the favorites
03:35now getting home field back and they have their hammer on the
03:38mound in game number three. Love what I see out of the
03:40Padres and they should be able to win this series which
03:42includes winning game number three and taking that
03:44commanding two to one series lead which everybody wants in a
03:47five-game set. And here's where things get interesting. The
03:51Phils are the NL pennant favorites. The Dodgers the
03:54second best price but only 10 cents back even in front of San
03:58Diego by 20 cents. Again, 30 cents. Yeah. Separate the top
04:01three teams but the Padres are the slight series favorites
04:05against LA but do have that worst price to win the National
04:10League pennant. Alright, DRS, let's get to the American League
04:13Division Series as we will have a double header of action on
04:17this Monday. We start with the Yankees. The number one overall
04:21seed in the AL hosting the Kansas City Royals. It was a
04:25late rally for the pinstripes in the Bronx on Saturday night.
04:29They win game number one and now greater than a $4 favorite
04:34at minus 420 to advance the ALCS. Yeah and it does appear
04:40high because you're saying, okay, it's a five-game set. You
04:42know, the Royals fought in the game number one but then you
04:44move forward and say, alright, what do the Royals have here?
04:46What can they actually do? They're a little bit outmanned
04:48against the Yankees. We can agree upon that and also it's
04:51not as if they have that Nets effect, Ben, right? Where it's
04:53like, wow, the Royals went, I don't know, fourteen and three
04:57down the stretch to clinch an average score of, you know, six
05:00runs per game for their own ball club here. That's not the case
05:03here. Usually, the cream rises to the top and the Yankees are
05:05the better team. I'm not paying that price point but I'm also
05:09gonna say, I'm not taking the underdog price in the Royals
05:12either. Yeah, I don't really know how this series ends up.
05:17The Yankees were the strongest favorite entering the division
05:20sets. They were greater than two dollars. They're now
05:22greater than four dollars. I don't think it's a sweep. I do
05:25think KC will have something to say either tonight or back in
05:29Kansas City but it could present some opportunities to
05:32make sure that you find that value game to game throughout
05:36this set. For the Yankees to cover the series spread, they
05:39would have to win in four. That's minus 172. Probably
05:44better than the over under of the series. That's minus 245.
05:49The Guardians got off to a great start on Saturday against
05:52the Tigers scoring five runs in the first. They never look
05:56back. Today, the Guardians are a minus 235 favorite to win the
05:59set but for this game in Cleveland, who starts for
06:03Detroit? It's Terrence Scouble. The Gritty Tides, a minus 130
06:07favorite in the land. Just something to note. Here's the
06:12thing too. Detroit was hot down the stretch but you know, wins
06:15in the playoffs. It's always going to be starting pitching
06:18and it just seems to me that you're taking a look at the
06:20Tigers. You go, we might have the best pitcher in the game
06:23and absolutely nothing behind him which means Scouble start
06:27bullpen, bullpen, bullpen, Scouble start. That's not a way
06:30to win the World Series. Now, they might win today. We'll go
06:32over that but you have a opener out there that gives up, you
06:35know, four earned runs. You bring in another guy, gives up
06:38an earned run behind him. You can't get down five to nothing
06:41in games in the playoffs and expect to win but having said
06:43that, it's a shame there's nobody behind Scouble to sort
06:45of try to back them up. It is what it is for the Tigers. Good
06:48baseball club. Maybe it's just going to run out but I think
06:51they actually tie this up 1-1 though to be honest. Yeah,
06:54listen, Terrence Scouble was sensational to start things for
06:57the Tigers last week in the wild card round against Houston.
07:01Here are the American League pennant odds before we hit the
07:04break and again, we will preview both of the games in
07:06the AL in our third hour. The Yankees and odds on favorite at
07:10minus 140. With a great path comes great pressure and
07:14responsibility to pay it off and get to a World Series.
07:18Something the Yanks have not done since 2009. We saw the
07:22doubleheader of game twos in the NLDS yesterday. The Phillies
07:27walk it off at home against the Mets. They even up the set
07:30behind six home runs in a feisty environment in Los
07:35Angeles. The Padres score ten and even the National League
07:38Division Series against the Dodgers at a game apiece.
07:43Tonight, two games in the American League Division Series.
07:47First in Cleveland. First pitch a little bit after 4 PM
07:51Eastern Time. The Guardians, a strong game one, a strong
07:55opening inning of the opening game of the ALDS. They lead one
08:00game to nothing but the Tigers are a road favorite. Why? The
08:05presumed and guy who is going to win the American League Cy
08:09Young Award, Terrence Scuble is on the bump for Detroit. The
08:13Tigers, the RS, a minus 130 road favorite in the land. Will
08:18Detroit even up the ALDS when the night is through? They
08:23should but if we're looking at all four pitchers tonight that
08:25are due to start, there's really no area that you're
08:28going to say, you know what? I'm going to fade this because
08:29the ERA's been over the past 60 days. 1.94, 2.58, 2.92, 2.72.
08:35So, it's not as if we're going into the sand like, you know,
08:37there's unbelievable mismatches on the mound which theoretically
08:41you probably should have on a night-to-night basis when
08:43Scuble's out there. Hear me out on this. He's been fantastic. I
08:46do give the upper hand to Detroit but let's go over this
08:48game. The Cleveland Guardians going to show up. They have a
08:50formidable, you know, lineup here against left-handed
08:53pitching to be honest. The first six guys in that lineup
08:55over the past 30 days. Look at the weighted on base
08:58percentages. 4.46, 4.94, 3.63, 4.01, 5.65, and 3.28 against
09:04left-handed pitching but this isn't tomato can left-handed
09:07pitching. Let's just go to the end of the season and we're
09:09going to wait for the playoffs. This is Derrick Scuble, the
09:11best pitcher in Major League Baseball. He should be able to
09:13hold down the fourth. Now, you flip it over to the other side
09:15and say, well, Matthew Boyd's not that great a pitcher but I
09:18just told you, a 2.72 ERA. His XFIP is 3.89 which typically
09:22during the regular season like, yeah, let's move on. Let's not
09:25fade that guy because it's not high enough. You like that
09:27danger zone. 4.5 or higher in the XFIP. So, he's quality. Now,
09:31if you say, alright, the Tigers should have a decided advantage
09:34in this game on the mound. Somewhat I agree with you but
09:36let's take a look at the hitters in the lineup for the
09:38Detroit Tigers and what they've done against left-handed
09:41pitching over the past month. Boyd, he's actually struggled
09:44with right-handed batters and left-handed batters. 3.78 and
09:483.78 actually an equal weighted on base percentage on both
09:51sides. Now, granted, it's only 58 batters and the majority of
09:54those batters from the right-handed side, 52 of the
09:5758. So, let's erase the left-handed batters and just
09:59focus on the right-handed batters which will be the
10:01majority of the lineup tonight. But if we look in totality, Ben,
10:04and say, well, how they actually done as a team against
10:07lefties. Let's go over that ISO power number which you want
10:10around 165 or higher. Veerling, 074. Henry Malloy, 0. Abanez,
10:16100. Perez, 045. Torkelson, 053. Meadows, 138. Rogers, 0.
10:22Sweeney, 042. The only positive there is left-handed batter
10:26Riley Green at a 242. Everybody else is below. So,
10:30theoretically, you see that six and like, I gotta take the
10:33over. I don't know if we get seven runs tonight to be
10:35honest. So, I'm gonna take the under in this ballgame which by
10:38the way, Detroit didn't even score in game number one. We'll
10:41see if they can get off the map and I don't expect seven runs
10:43in a school bull start going up against Detroit tonight. So,
10:47six. Wild number. I'm still going under. Six. A flat six.
10:52Not even six and a hook. Unbelievable. Six. That is the
10:56number. Terrence Scooble sensational in his opening
10:59start last week in Houston. Can he continue that today in
11:03Cleveland? Now, let's go to the Bronx. The Yankees, they came
11:07back to win in game number one. The Royals did not make it
11:11easy but Alex Verdugo delivering for the Pinstripes.
11:14So, the Yanks, a home favorite. Minus one fifty-two against
11:18Cole Reagans and the Royals. Reagans outdueled Corbin Burns
11:23a week ago in Baltimore. DRS, will Casey even the set? Will
11:27New York take a commanding? Two-oh series lead back to
11:30Coffman Field. Gonna have to take a little bit of a leap of
11:33faith here on the Royals. I'm gonna tell you why but before
11:35we get there, Reagans last 60 days, fifty-two and third.
11:38Fifty-two and a third innings pitch here. You take a look at
11:41Rodan. Forty-nine and a third innings pitch. Very similar
11:43ERAs. 2.58 here for Reagans. 2.92 for Carlos Rodan. XFIP
11:48numbers, similar also. So, what's gonna give here in the
11:51rotation? Carlos Rodan's a left-handed pitcher, Ben. Last
11:53ninety-five batters he's faced in totality. Seventy-seven of
11:56those have been right-handed batters. Check this out. A 250
11:59ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 357. So, then you
12:02perk up and say the only lefty in this lineup is probably
12:05gonna be the Pat Squatch, Vinny Pasquantino. But if we remove
12:08him from the equation which he hasn't actually had too many
12:11bats against left-handed pitching cuz he was injured.
12:13The rest of that lineup outside of Hunter Renfro, zero, zero,
12:17zero, zero, zero, zero, and zero. That's the ISO power
12:22numbers against left-handed pitching for the Royals over
12:24the past month. Come on now. So, the leap of faith is Rodan's
12:27gonna get hit because he can't get out right-handed batters
12:30but the Royals right-handed batters can't hit left-handed
12:33pitching. Go Royals. ISO power number. Take a shot.