MLB Best Bets: Full Friday Slate + Player Props and Updates
Transcript
00:00But, we like to reach out to the public at this time, doves.
00:02We like to see what the public thinks about things.
00:05And the question asked today at Sports Grid on Twitter follows, should MLB institute a
00:11six-inning requirement for starting pitchers?
00:15Before I get to the poll results, who are quite lopsided, and quite frankly, I do agree
00:20with that.
00:21Rob Manfred has changed Major League Baseball quite a bit.
00:24Most people, doves, hate commissioners, no matter what they do.
00:27This is the worst guy ever.
00:28I wish somebody would run the league, but for me, I've actually loved what Rob Manfred
00:33has done to Major League Baseball.
00:34The pitch, I'm telling you right now, for people out there that just don't understand
00:38some of the changes in the magnitude, just starting with the pitch clock.
00:41Do me a favor right now.
00:43Go back a couple years and try to watch a Major League Baseball game without the pitch
00:47clock.
00:48You can't do it.
00:49You'd say, this is insanity.
00:50Nothing is happening here.
00:52Pitchers are walking around the mound.
00:53It's minutes between pitches.
00:55The pitch clock has been awesome.
00:56The DH coming to the National League, absolutely fantastic.
01:00No longer doves.
01:01Am I looking at lineups going like, you know what?
01:03I need to hit this team total over.
01:04Oh no, the pitcher's coming up with two outs and bases loaded.
01:07How crazy was that rule where pitchers were batting?
01:10That was fantastic.
01:11The ghost runner on base in extra innings, so we don't have to wait 19 innings for a
01:15game to finish here, I think was great to save the pitcher's arms.
01:19The shift, who I couldn't stand, oh, just hit the baseball the other way.
01:23Do you understand a 99 mile an hour fastball, how easy it is to hit it the opposite way
01:29or say hit it where they ain't?
01:30I love those changes, but this question that we asked doves is kind of wild.
01:36So before we reveal the results, let me ask you, how do you feel about a six inning requirement
01:40for starting pitchers here in Major League Baseball?
01:43Donnie, if I'm paying $12 to go watch the Angels play down there at Anaheim, I want
01:48to see the starting pitchers out there for six innings.
01:52Yes, yes, yes.
01:54I like the rule changes that we saw coming in for this season, shorter games.
01:58And yes, I do agree that the starting pitchers to stay out there for a minimum of six innings
02:03pitch, I think it's fantastic and obviously it shapes up the dynamics in baseball, but
02:08it cannot be overnight, Donnie.
02:10This is something that could take a few years to get underway.
02:14It's crazy because the thought process behind it makes a lot of sense.
02:17Like they're not just doing this to upset the old time baseball guys.
02:21So theoretically, even as a handicapper, how many times do you find yourself going like,
02:25I've never really heard of this guy.
02:26Oh, that's right.
02:27He pitches one inning or every like, why is this guy pitching only two innings at this
02:30point now?
02:31Granted, there are escape hatches here, right?
02:33So Major League Baseball is not going to tell you, hey, look, it's the third inning.
02:37This guy's arm's going to fall off.
02:39Don't care.
02:40He better pitch six innings.
02:41There is an out clause if you are injured, but you can't skirt that issue because the
02:46rule is if you leave that game due to injury, you have to go on the IL.
02:50So you can't just fake an injury.
02:51See, in five days, I'll be the starting pitcher.
02:54Also, if your pitcher gives up more than four earned runs, he can exit throughout the process.
02:59The design also, which, you know, one of the under, I say, valued rules that they put in
03:03two doves was, do you remember?
03:05And again, this all goes through with pace of playing the game and what people want to
03:08watch.
03:09More action is better.
03:10Major League Baseball managers on a pitcher to pitcher to pitcher basis, just bring in
03:16a new pitcher for a lefty righty matchup.
03:18The next batter, bring in a new pitcher.
03:21It really slowed the game down to at least now relieve pitchers have to pitch to three
03:25batters minimum here before they could be taken out of the game.
03:28I don't know how.
03:29And again, Rob Manfred stated this as well.
03:31It's not going to be overnight, as you said, like this is going to take some time.
03:34We're going to test it out to see if it makes some sense.
03:36But theoretically, it would be better for the baseball if the starting pitchers were
03:40going a full six innings, because also for me, I like to say, you know what, I got six
03:45innings out of this guy.
03:46I know my three batters or excuse me, my batter is going to get at least three attempts
03:50off of this guy in a game for the good of the game.
03:52I think it makes some sense, but I think it's so radical that I'm not so sure the public
03:56is picking up on it right away, because if we do look at the results right now, Dubbs,
04:0184.2 percent said absolutely not.
04:05What do you think about that?
04:07Yeah, the public say, hey, let's leave it.
04:10I'm just a great thing.
04:12That's the great thing about baseball, Donny.
04:15It's so traditional.
04:16A lot of the rules still in place, and that's what makes the game fantastic.
04:19But I would argue that some of the starting pitchers have sort of lost that, I guess you
04:24wouldn't say prestige, but that aura around making their way out to the diamond.
04:29So it could put a bit more emphasis on really having a true ace in your ball in your ball
04:34club.
04:35So I think it's fantastic if we actually get to that.
04:37And yes, you know, they're going to be limited to 100 pitches.
04:39We're always worried about the player's safety and welfare on that side of things.
04:43But I think this would be a fantastic addition to the rules.
04:47And this is, I would say, Donny, probably the most traditional sport that we get here
04:52in the mainstream.
04:53So I think it'd be fantastic.
04:54And obviously, I'm not seeing it the same.
04:56The public, a whopping 84 percent in saying no.
05:00We don't want to see a starting pitcher staying out there for a minimum of six innings pitch.
05:05Come on now.
05:06Oh, let's see.
05:07I like your style, man.
05:08I knew there's a reason why you're going to come back here and do some shows here and
05:11have some fun with us, because I do think you're right, even for the particular way
05:14you voted.
05:15It should obviously just say from Major League Baseball, we just don't like the opener rule.
05:20Nobody likes the opener rule.
05:21And just a few short years ago, forget about even like the FanDuel Sportsbook, all sportsbooks.
05:25How many times did you place a wager in the afternoon and they get updated late that an
05:29opener was going to come in?
05:30So the odds would have to change and your bet would be null and void.
05:34After a while, baseball and specifically with the FanDuel Sportsbook, you know what?
05:37It doesn't matter who the starting pitcher is.
05:38That bet is going to be valid no matter who goes out there, because the openers, again,
05:42theoretically changing up the game of baseball, hey, this guy's going to come out for one
05:46inning and then the start is going to come in in inning number two.
05:49I like where Major League Baseball is going at this point, but sometimes it's hard.
05:53People don't like change dubs, right?
05:55And there are people out there still who will tell you they don't like the pitch clock.
05:58I have no idea why they don't like that.
06:00They don't like the National League getting the DH so they can match up against the American
06:04League.
06:05Who wouldn't like that at this point here?
06:06And I can see some of the arguments and the reason why they took the ghost runner out
06:09in the playoffs is you're trying to get more of a natural baseball feel, but you can't
06:14say you don't like it the regular season.
06:15Who? To be honest, Dubs, like, hey, it's fun as a sixth grader, right?
06:19This game went into the 18th inning and I'm going to watch it here.
06:22Nobody wants to watch a game into the eighth inning.
06:24And also, you blow up your entire bullpen for the next week and a half if you have an
06:2918 inning ball game going through your entire pitchers.
06:32That's the reason why I was brought in.
06:33So for my money, I love Rob Manfred.
06:36But let's just say the sixth inning requirement.
06:38Do you see this as a viable option?
06:40Let's just give you three years here.
06:42Are we seeing this as a rule in Major League Baseball?
06:44I don't think it will.
06:46I think that the public is spot on.
06:48There'll be too many resistance, resistance to that change.
06:52And I'll say ultimately, no, it would take too much of a lot of these young pitchers
06:56and trying to develop.
06:57But let's see, maybe run it through Triple A before we can bring it up to the majors.
07:00But I would say unlikely.
07:02What happens on it?
07:03I'd like to see.
07:04We're not really changing the game of baseball.
07:06We're just modernizing it same way as the pitch clock, trying to speed this thing up.
07:10That is not a bad problem to have there.
07:12I want to see the starting pitchers just get a bit more weight on that ball.
07:16But I would make the argument Paul Skeens would have no issues staying out there for
07:19six innings pitches.
07:20So if your team hasn't got a Paul Skeens, go and find one.
07:25There you go.
07:26That's the options again.
07:27Eighty four percent right now to the no.
07:29We'll see where this poll winds up throughout the day, but a couple of hundred votes already
07:32on the board.
07:33Other people with the sports grid network here trying to get Joe Maddon says she doesn't
07:37like it.
07:38A.J.
07:39Freeze, if anything, it would be five innings and still a no.
07:41Dubs, the people out here don't like changes.
07:44I think we're being very progressive right now trying to make baseball a much better
07:48product.
07:49Rob Manfred has done that.
07:50We'll see if this gets instituted, but it's an interesting product nonetheless.
07:53Imagine that starting pitchers absolutely have to go six innings in a major league baseball
07:58game.
07:59What a novel concept at that point.
08:01More major league baseball talk here at our number three coming up next.
08:05Welcome back into the early line.
08:07That's Tony right side.
08:08I'm Dubs Anderson.
08:09Getting you set for the Friday action out on the diamond.
08:12Fourteen games in play for today's slate, Donny.
08:15Let's start with the Dodgers squaring off against the Cardinals 31 27 at home.
08:20The Dodgers booked as your favorites here.
08:22Minus one thirty five at the Fandul Sports of minus one thirty four.
08:27Yet to see who's starting for the Dodgers.
08:29Miles Nicholas will get out there on the hill for the Cardinals.
08:32Yeah.
08:33Take a look at this game.
08:34So you always see those price points and you say to yourself, oh, I can get the Dodgers
08:38at a minus one fifty price or less.
08:39Why don't I just load up?
08:40And it's not really a bad philosophy because on a day to day basis, they're used to the
08:44more talented team.
08:45But it looks like Robleski is going to get that start.
08:47A guy that doesn't have a lot of major league baseball experience, Dubs.
08:50You take a look at eighty two batters he's faced on the season.
08:53His numbers aren't great over those eighty two batters.
08:55An ISO power number of two thirty three against and a three thirty four weighted on base percentage.
09:00However, his last thirty nine batters Dubs he's faced over the past 30 days, it gets
09:04much better.
09:05An ISO power number of oh fifty seven and a weighted on base percentage of two thirty
09:09eight.
09:10Very manageable here for him.
09:11And he's a left handed pitcher.
09:13Typically teams don't hit lefties as well as they do righties.
09:16However, the St. Louis Cardinals coming into this game, by the way, eighty four degree
09:19temperatures tonight in the stadium in St. Louis.
09:22Slight wind blowing out the right field does help.
09:23The first five batters we anticipate that's when Contreras, Pham, Aronado and Goldschmidt
09:28all high ISO power numbers and weighted on base percentages against left handed pitching.
09:33But let's flip it over to the Dodgers perspective.
09:35Miles Michaelis needs to be better this year.
09:38Hasn't been.
09:39Five hundred fifty five batters Dubs he's faced a one ninety five ISO power number and
09:42a weighted on base percentage of three forty three.
09:44His past 30 days, left handed batters have gotten the best of him to the tune of a two
09:48twenty five ISO and a weighted on base percentage of three forty four.
09:52If you look at the first five batters in that Dodgers lineup, Ohtani, Betts, Freeman,
09:55Hernandez and Lux, they have all hammered right handed pitching.
09:59So for me, I still get the lean towards the Los Angeles Dodgers.
10:02But if I'm betting for some plus money for some RBI opportunities, Ohtani, Freeman and
10:07Lux would be the guys Dubs I look forward to today.
10:10Should be a good battle.
10:11Think the Dodgers win.
10:12But a better look at some of those Dodgers RBI props.
10:14Yeah, not a bad number there.
10:16Minus one thirty four for your road favorites.
10:18The Dodgers taken on the cards.
10:20Let's take it out to the Tropicana field.
10:22The Denver Bay Rays playing host to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
10:25The Diamondbacks have been playing some fantastic baseball rattled off five of the last five
10:31there.
10:32They're booked.
10:33Well, it's close to a pick him here with a low total set for this one, Donnie, at eight
10:36over at the Fandles Sportsbook.
10:38Green Nelson gets the start there for the Diamondbacks with a four five one ERA.
10:43What do we expect for the race?
10:44Looking to roll it home.
10:45Boy, Dubs, isn't it hard to go against the Diamondbacks?
10:48Sometimes you do have to ride out streaks and give those teams the benefit of the doubt.
10:52There are no freebies in Major League Baseball or in sports handicapping.
10:55But sometimes you take a look at price points and go, hmm, that looks a little bit off.
10:58Yes, the Diamondbacks are on the road.
10:59It's not the greatest environment to play the Tampa Bay Rays in that dome.
11:02And Pepio is coming back to the mound here for those rays.
11:05He actually had a pretty good start to the season.
11:07Three hundred fifty two batters.
11:08He's faced a low ISO and a low weighted on base percentage against them.
11:12We'll see how he does.
11:13But when you just look at that Diamondbacks lineup like I was used to, it's like weighted
11:16on base percentage and ISO power numbers to tell me what's going on.
11:20And particularly, I like to focus on the last 30 days.
11:22How hot have those batters been outside of Blaze Alexander, who's only had five at bats
11:27in the past 30 days against right handed pitching.
11:29If you remove them from the equation, all eight of the other batters, monster high ISO
11:34power numbers, monster high weighted on base percentages here.
11:37They should be able to hit.
11:38And the question is, can Tampa Bay keep up?
11:41It's not a great offense.
11:42You look at Ryan Nelson, one of those pitchers coming into the season.
11:45You probably feel like, you know what?
11:46You can fade this guy on a day to day basis.
11:48Not the case anymore.
11:49Dubbs, his last hundred twenty one batters he's faced over the past 30 days, an ISO power
11:53number of one 18 and a weighted on base percentage of 273 against.
11:57That's spectacular.
11:58And conversely, we just saw the Diamondbacks lineup and how potent it looks.
12:01It's the opposite fear for the race.
12:03You have Brandon Lowe and excuse me, Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe in the lineup.
12:09Ridiculous.
12:10The only two batters that are above average on ISO and weighted on base percentages.
12:15Everybody else is below.
12:16I got to go with Arizona today, Dubbsy, Arizona, nice little price there as well.
12:22Still listed as a pick.
12:23I'm taking on the race.
12:24One of the hottest teams in baseball.
12:26Let's see if the Diamondbacks can deal up another big performance for your Friday afternoon.
12:31Let's keep it in the American League.
12:33We're taking it out east here.
12:34We've got a great spot.
12:36The Boston Red Sox, you highlighted the big on the baseball.
12:39They've been playing off late.
12:40They're going into Baltimore to take on the Orioles there, Camden Yards.
12:44It looks to be Baltimore as your favorites here.
12:47Get in bed down.
12:48Minus two fifteens.
12:49You've got to pay a bit of juice for this one with that total sitting at eight and a
12:52half.
12:53We saw last night the Orioles getting the chocolates there over the Red Sox, five to
12:56one.
12:57And then you get star ace Corbin Burns out there on the slab, 12-4 win and loss for his
13:02campaign this year with the 2-7-1 ER race.
13:05Very impressive.
13:06Does it all look to be about the Orioles for this one, Donnie?
13:09Dubbs, I love both of these lineups, but I don't love both of these pitchers and that's
13:13the key.
13:14You brought it up.
13:15It's Corbin Burns' day in Baltimore.
13:16He has been sensational after getting moved from the Milwaukee Brewers over to the Baltimore
13:21Orioles.
13:22Look at his season.
13:23600 batters he's faced.
13:24ISO power numbers, we use those statistics a lot, 165 or lower is where you want to be
13:28for a pitcher.
13:29He's at a 121.
13:30Weighted on base percentage, Dubbsie, for a pitcher, 325, 320, you want to be below
13:34that.
13:35He's at a 270 on the season.
13:36His last 30 days through 127 batters, he's faced a 114 ISO and a weighted on base percentage
13:42of 267.
13:44I told you, it's a very good lineup here for the Boston Red Sox.
13:46A lot of lefties that have had some success over right-handed pitchers over the past 30
13:50days, but it's not your average right-handed pitcher.
13:52It's Corbin Burns, maybe one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball when it's all said
13:57and done this season.
13:58If we flip it over, Cooper Criswell looking like he's going to take the mound.
14:01He actually has decent statistics.
14:03However, he has a low K percentage, which you know, Dubbsie, gets you in trouble.
14:08If you're striking batters out, that means you can't even get base hits and or productive
14:12outs.
14:13Let's see if that ball gets in play.
14:14Because quite frankly, like we talk about the Arizona Diamondbacks, this team looks
14:18tremendous against right-handed pitching.
14:20There is a reason why they're favored by that much, might be a great parlay piece, because
14:24I look for the Orioles winning once again against the Boston Red Sox today, Dubbs.
14:30There it is.
14:31Corbin Burns has had four more Ks these last five starts, and they've also got the result
14:36off the back of he's starting pitching.
14:37All right, let's take it across to Houston.
14:40The Strohs are playing host to the Chicago White Sox.
14:43Donnie, you can probably see my background.
14:45Someone asked me, am I a big Chicago White Sox fan?
14:47I've got the helmet there on the set up.
14:49No, it's the only helmet I could find.
14:52They're 11 and 49 going on the road here.
14:54The Strohs are booked as your short price favorites with a total sitting at eight.
14:59Is it all about Houston?
15:00Arrighetti gets the start with a 5-1-4 ERA.
15:03So far from impressive.
15:05Yeah.
15:06Can we actually get some runs here for the White Sox?
15:07Maybe they can participate.
15:08Here's the interesting part, Dubbs.
15:10They'll make it quick.
15:11Crochet is the best analytical pitcher on the card today, but his numbers on the field
15:14don't add up.
15:15His last 68 batters, a .344 ISO, and a .456 winning it on base percentage against.
15:20More wins for Houston is what that does mean.
15:23We are back at it here on the early line.
15:25I'm Dubbs Anderson alongside Donnie Wrightson.
15:28We get you set for a fantastic afternoon out there on the Diamonds.
15:32Fourteen games in play for Major League Baseball, and let's turn it to Milwaukee.
15:36The Brewers, they're playing host to the Guardians.
15:38It's expected to be a very close one here.
15:40The Brewers have been strong playing in their ballpark, 35-24 for the season here.
15:45Very close to being a pick, and Gavin Williams gets the nod there for the Guardians, and
15:49Aaron Cervale gets the start there for the Brewers with a 3-8 win loss.
15:53A couple of ERAs here, Donnie, close to what I'm paying for my Starbucks.
15:57Colbrew, could we see a couple of runs?
15:59Yeah, we might be able to see a couple of runs, and also you take a look at that price
16:02point here at the FanBlue Sportsbook on the game.
16:04It's basically a coin flip here.
16:06If we're looking at Aaron Cervale, not one of my favorite pitchers here, Dubzy.
16:09Last 60 days, he has an ex-fit minus of a 115 and an ERA that's approaching 5.
16:14Also, if you're looking at him struggling, he's an equal opportunity struggler right
16:18now, which means lefty and righty batters getting the best of him.
16:2187 batters he's faced, Dubz, over the past 30 days, an ISO power number of 256, and a
16:25weighted on base percentage of 390.
16:28If I'm looking from a Guardians perspective, they haven't been all that great at the plate,
16:31particularly over the past month against right-handed pitchers, but there's two guys in that lineup
16:35that need to be on your cards for RBI opportunities.
16:38That's Jose Ramirez and it's Josh Naylor.
16:40Both of those guys, 78 at bats and 65 at bats against right-handed pitching, ISO power numbers
16:45respectively, 232 and 250 also with high weighted on base percentages.
16:50So for me, instead of saying, you know what, I don't know who's going to win this game,
16:52I do expect Ramirez and Naylor to do some damage at the plate.
16:56You take one of those two guys down here, Dubz with an RBI prop, it's plus money.
17:00You move on to the next game.
17:02That's how I approach this one.
17:04It is that simple.
17:05Don't overthink it.
17:06That's the Guardians taking on the Brewers.
17:08A lot of close games expected here if you're going off the odd sport at the FD Sportsbook.
17:13Let's take it to Pittsburgh.
17:14The Pirates taking on the Mariners, Seattle coming into town.
17:18They get Logan Gilbert out there on the hill and it's the one and only Paul Skeens.
17:23What a scintillating year he's putting together the rookie, but has failed to get the result
17:28in the last four.
17:29So what do we make of this matchup?
17:31Is it all about the Pirates off the back of the star ace, Paul Skeens?
17:36I'm telling you, like you need a stopper right now for Pittsburgh.
17:38The sky is falling out there like losing double digit games.
17:41It's insanity.
17:42But Skeens should be able to pick up the victory.
17:44Why?
17:45You just saw the Mariners yesterday go a full nine innings and get one hit yesterday.
17:51Good luck going up against Paul Skeens today.
17:53Even if the Mariners actually project very well against right into pitching over the
17:57past 30 days.
17:58But that's average right into pitching.
18:00That's not Paul Skeens.
18:01Also, is this a last ditch effort, Dovesy, that we take a look at Skeens with a chance
18:05to win the Cy Young as he's also falling in that race?
18:08I expect a big time performance.
18:09Also, how comfortable are you in this game?
18:11Two good pitchers out here, two lineups that are struggling, two teams that can't get out
18:16of their own way.
18:17Maybe just look at a strikeout prop from Paul Skeens in this one.
18:19I expect big things from him.
18:21And watch this, Doves.
18:22We'll watch this game, the updates.
18:23Oh, look at that.
18:24The Mariners got five runs on the board against Paul Skeens in the third inning.
18:28That's sometimes how crazy Major League Baseball is.
18:30But you see that six and a half.
18:31Who's getting the seven runs here?
18:33My goodness.
18:34Yeah, it could be a tough afternoon if you're looking for plenty of offense there.
18:39One of the lowest totals we'll see going in to the Friday afternoon slate.
18:42So that's the Mariners squaring off against the Pirates, a couple of phenoms out there
18:47on the hill.
18:48What about the Royals?
18:49Kansas City looking to rumble.
18:50Eyes towards October.
18:51They're going in to Cincinnati, the great American ballpark to take on the Reds, who
18:56sit right around 500 for the year.
18:58And again, Donnie, it's booked as a very close game, nine and a half.
19:02So a higher total coming in for this one.
19:04But the Royals, they're still trying to stay in the hunt for the American League there
19:08in the Central.
19:09What do we make?
19:10I think we get runs.
19:11But from a Reds perspective here, Doves, we take a look at the pitching matchup.
19:14And Nick Martinez might not be a household name, but my goodness.
19:17Take a look at his last 30 days, 71 batters he's faced.
19:19That's an 0-74 iso against and a 2-08 weighted on base percentage.
19:24If you want to take a look at some of those analytical looks, that XFIP minus number we
19:27talk about so much, 100 is the baseline.
19:30You want to be below that for a pitcher.
19:31He's at an 81.
19:33But how about this for those old school metrics that some people like?
19:35His last 60 days, Doves, in ERA, 1.25.
19:40So be tough on the Royals today.
19:42But if we do look from a Cincinnati perspective, Michael Lorenzen on the mound for the Royals.
19:46Not a great pitcher.
19:47High iso power number against high weighted on base percentages.
19:51Guys in the middle of that lineup, De La Cruz, Stevenson, Friedel, and Steer, those guys
19:54should be on your roster tonight for some RBI action.
19:58So for me tonight, I do think the Reds handle their business.
20:01Team Total might be in effect for them and also some RBI props in the middle of that
20:04lineup.
20:05And Elie De La Cruz, who hasn't treated me very kindly this year, Doves, in bets, I think
20:08he finally comes through for me tonight if I should choose to bet him.
20:11How about that?
20:12Bobby, we're junior back in the mix as well in search for the 25th ding out for the season.
20:18Donnie, that's going to do it for me.
20:20It's been an absolute blast going through the Friday card.
20:22A quick update on the Gulf side.
20:24Sammy Burns, we started the show at 35 to 1, now 12 to 1, co-leader out there at the
20:29FedEx St. Jude.
20:31That's the kind of Friday it's going to be, Donnie.
20:34Absolutely.
20:35And by the way, get used to Dovesy, football season all the way through.
20:38He will be a part of us and we are still happy to have him.
20:41Joe Leach is up next.
20:42Dovesy, enjoy the rest of your day, buddy.