MLB Best Bets for Friday and Weekend Slate | Yankees vs Blue Jays
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00:00Great for some Major League Baseball talk. You came to the right place right here on a Friday morning. It's the early line. It's on the right side. It's time for some Major League Baseball talk and we're going to get right off the bat. But before we do that updates here and the updates aren't looking good guys for the Olympics. As we told you Team USA was down 1 to nothing at the break. We just had Bill Bender on from the sporting news. The updates all bad right now for Team USA down 3 to nothing in the 78th minute right now against Morocco.
00:29So it looks like that dream of getting to the Olympic podium is going to fall short here for Team USA as the under 23 Moroccan squad laying the hammer on Team USA. All right. So get that out of the way. Maybe a miracle comeback. If we do score a goal something changes. We'll keep you up to date there. But we got a huge Major League Baseball card to try to tackle. As we told you yesterday it's only five games on that card today. Full boat full schedule big implications across the board and it starts in the Bronx with the New York Yankees.
00:58Yankees first with fantastic against the Philadelphia Phillies sweeping the Phillies as underdogs in all three games. If we look at the game today they're not an underdog but there is a catch to this one at a minus 178 price here for the Yanks and a total that's listed at nine. I just told you in the last couple of segments when we were looking at pictures that you possibly would want to fade on your card. None coming up bigger than Marcus Stroman.
01:21One thirty one expert minus number in ERA over five over the past 60 days and a high exit number coupled with a high Sierra price. So if we look at the matchups here coming into it Toronto sort of woken up a bit particularly with Vladimir Guerrero Junior.
01:37He has been nothing short of sensational as of late with Stroman last 30 days. Eighty four batters that he's faced. Take a look at the ISO power number a 276 awaited on base percentage for 39 against and this is an equal opportunity chance.
01:52So many times you see these high numbers go like Oh Donnie it's only right handed batters getting the best of them. It's only left handed batters getting the best of them. Not the case. Lefties a 250 ISO righties a 312 ISO. That doesn't pan out all that well. Now if we are looking at conditions at Yankee Stadium tonight there is some rain and thunderstorms in the forecast guys. It's really muggy on the East Coast.
02:12Eighty one degree temperatures. And if we do get some rain that could affect the starters because again if it's raining in the second or third inning maybe those starters don't come out but we can't handicap that way as opposed to what the rain is going to do. But we can look at the lineups and pick some players that certainly make some sense. George Springer 78 at bats against right handed pitching over the past 30 days a 264 ISO power number and a weighted on base percentage of 377. That's a good look on the card for a possible RBI chance. None better probably in this game than Vladimir Guerrero Junior.
02:42Eighty six at bats against right handed pitching over the past month a 308 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 430. A little bit farther down there Barger's got a 350 ISO but only 21 at bats. So if I'm looking to cash in from a Toronto perspective if it's from a total bases look if it's from an RBI look if it's from a home run look it's going to be Springer and Guerrero. Flip it over to the other side here. Let's take a look at Kevin Gauffman on the mound today and I'm going to take a look at where his numbers actually sit.
03:10He's 16th on the card out of 26 eligible pitchers over the past 60 days with at least 20 innings pitched. His numbers come in at an expert minus number at a 104 much better than Stroman's 131. But here's the caveat. I just told you maybe two maybe three batters in that Toronto lineup that possibly could do damage against Marcus Stroman or at least have the numbers to do damage. You look at that Yankees lineup. There is a lot to love on that card today.
03:37However you look at Gauffman decent numbers. Let's take a look at those non analytical numbers with ISO power and also weighted on base percentages. His last 115 batters that he's faced over the past 30 days. How about a 112 ISO power number had a weighted on base percentage of 251 a strikeout number to left handed batters at 28 percent. Keep in mind Gauffman is a right handed pitcher. But when you look at that Yankees lineup today due to leadoff is Alec Verdugo. Take him out of the equation.
04:04Take a look at the next three guys. Juan Soto Aaron Judge and Austin Wells 76 plate appearances 80 plate appearances and 67 plate appearances. But if we're looking at who's going to do the most damage you might as well flip a coin which is crazy to say Soto 76 at bats a 424 ISO power number and a weighted on base percentage of 517. That's off the charts off the charts.
04:28Take a look at Aaron Judge 80 at bats over the past 30 days against right handed pitching a 308 ISO power number and a weighted on base percentage of 475. Austin Wells catching batting lefty a 327 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 399. And it doesn't stop there. You know who's been the man of the hour right now for the New York Yankees. That's been jazz Chisholm. His last 72 at bats against right handed pitching. Quite frankly we're just in Philadelphia feels like he had 72 at bats a 302 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 402.
04:58Ben Rice down in that eight hole a 328 ISO power number. There's a lot of numbers to look forward to. So when you see that high price on the New York Yankees there is a little bit of a buyer beware because if you're expecting Gaussman to be decent and Stroman to be not as good as Gaussman they'll be in that matchup. Do I love the side per se. No I don't. But I actually think there's more of a chance for runs in this game than not because the Yankees are coming in absolutely red hot at the plate and Gaussman not home. He is on the road in a true hitters ballpark.
05:27And again these heat muggy conditions. That's certainly something to keep an eye on here. Let's keep moving down the list as we go. Next up is going to be Baltimore and Cleveland. Now this price is basically a pick up minus one twenty two price here towards the Baltimore Orioles a plus one or four play split here for the Guardians and a total that's listed at nine.
05:47Kramer is going to be on the mound against Carlos Carrasco Carrasco. One of my favorite pictures to sort of fade if we're looking at his numbers over the past 60 days. This is where it comes in where it messes with your brain just a little bit. If we look at Carrasco and say Donnie what's his X fit minus number. It's an 87. That's really good. How about his ERA guys. A six point one six. How about a Sierra number three point seven four. They're all manageable outside that ERA. So you might be saying he's getting just a little bit unlucky.
06:15But then when you get to the team he's playing which is the Baltimore Orioles and how they hit against right handed pitching sometimes this is going to mess with you a little bit. And also Carlos Carrasco over the past 30 days. Take a look at this ISO power number of 268 weighted on base percentage of 4 0 8 against him and also equal opportunity just like we were taking a look at Marcus Stroman a 333 ISO power number against the lefties a 217 to righties. Both of those are elevated numbers.
06:43If you're looking from a lineup perspective on the Orioles of where you should be hunting one of the guys that has been my favorite batters in Major League Baseball possibly over the past month it's been Anthony Santander 81 at bats against right handed pitching a 347 ISO power number and a 464 weighted on base percentage which means you're waiting for Couser Rutschman and Henderson to be on base and him taking care of the rest of it.
07:05But look no further to Cedric Mullins down the bottom of that lineup. Sneaky play guys. Fifty seven at bats against right handed pitching over the past month a 234 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 4 0 5. Much more Major League Baseball to go. One more segment on the Friday.
07:21The Sportsbook Network hits the early line.
07:24We've got a new hometown team here for you say Kikuchi and Major League Baseball. Now we did see some pitchers out here talking about Mr. Rogers neighborhood going from Florida to Baltimore not have a great start yesterday.
07:35Maybe that'll change today. And two teams looking to make the playoffs say which one about the Rays are typically in it to win it. And the Houston Astros making some moves because now it looks like they have a legitimate chance to win the A.L. West.
07:47Let's take a look at the odds market here. Houston will be home today a minus one fifty six price and a total that's listed at eight.
07:52Baz will be on the mound here today for those Rays and you say Kikuchi in the first start for the Houston Astros. Now when we were going over those numbers on X fit minus you might look or hear that name you say Kikuchi and say like that's just a run of the mill pitcher in Major League Baseball.
08:07Now also here's what's crazy about his statistics. His X fit minus numbers guys is an 81. That's second on the card today. That is sensational. He's got a six point two zero era.
08:19He said these numbers don't make sense. So the eye test isn't matching up with what actually analytically is coming back for us. He's a very good expert number a very good Sierra. The only thing bad is the era overall himself.
08:31But also if we're looking at the past 30 days one hundred twenty two batters that he's faced maybe he is getting a little bit unlucky because ISO power numbers are 171 to lefty righties combined and a weighted on base percentage of 344.
08:42Those are basically average numbers. But here's the issue that comes up so many times. If you do have a pitcher that you feel is susceptible and if you just look at era at six point two zero which I don't you're looking to fade Kikuchi.
08:54But what is that offensive lineup on the opposing team going to do and how they fare against let's just say left handed pitching. Well let's find out right now. The Tampa Bay Rays last 30 days abysmal against left handed pitchers.
09:06If you're looking at Yandy Diaz who's going to lead off only 17 to bat he's had over the past 30 days against lefties. Look at these numbers 562 ISO 669 weighted on base percentage crushing the baseball.
09:18Maybe he can be on your card but look behind him here. Curtis Meade 083 ISO power number Christopher Morell 0 ISO power number Johnny DeLuca 053 ISO power number Caballero 100 ISO power number Carlson 062 walls 0.
09:37There's not much help that you're getting in this lineup. So if you say even though we're going to stack every single one of these batters from the right hand side I don't know how much they're going to be able to produce and also keep in mind Houston's a great hitters ballpark.
09:49But you still need the batters to sort of take care of that and have the advantage in their favor. They don't have that. Let's take a look at Shane Bass on the opposite side.
09:55I don't know if he has a full 60 days that we can get in with a minimum of 20 innings and we don't have that. But if we're looking at his last 85 batters that he did face ISO power number against is a 118.
10:07That's not bad weighted on base percentage 314. That's not bad. But where he gets himself into trouble is left handed batters guys a 205 ISO against and a 385 weighted on base percentage.
10:19So if we're looking at the lineup to say where is my guy. Usually it's going to be your Nalvarez. But at this point right now 50 at bats he's had against right handed pitching over the past month as a left handed batter.
10:32So I got a 119 ISO power number. That's well below the average. He does have an average weighted on base percentage. But to be honest I look at this game overall myself and say it probably leans more towards the under than it doesn't over just because of that matchup from Kikuchi the left handed pitcher pitching over to the raise it.
10:48At that point. All right. Let's get down a couple here and have some fun because you know me. I'm a Philadelphia Phillies fan. The Phillies haven't played all that well which means they better start winning some baseball games and they are taking on the Seattle Mariners tonight.
11:01If you take a look at the graph that's going to pop up here a minus 116 price as a slight money line favorite to the home team. Seattle Mariners taking on the Phillies at a minus 1 0 2 dog in a total run here.
11:11And again that total look at the ballpark they're playing it and that Phillies offense that needs to show up. Phillips will be on the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies. I told you he's had a very good past 60 days.
11:22You take a look at his matchup a 161 ISO power number a 240 weighted on base percentage against combined with lefties and righties. It's not a great lineup for the Seattle Mariners but this Mariners lineup actually looks much better on paper than it did just a few weeks ago.
11:35You add Randy Rosa Rainey you add Justin Turner to that lineup and you take a look at some of those ISO power numbers that are back into those average rains because typically we were looking at the Mariners the same.
11:46I can't take anybody in this lineup at this point but it's up to the Philadelphia batters and it's up to the superstar batters here to show up. That's Bryce Harper. That's Kyle Schwarzer.
11:55That's Alec Boehm. That's Nick Castellanos because they haven't been hot together in a long time. It's basically everybody's been ice cold but they're going to take on Brian Wu tonight who is susceptible to left handed batters and we'll see if guys like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarzer can make a difference tonight.
12:12I would love to sit back and say the Philadelphia Phillies are going to win this game easily. I just don't know if that's the case. They just haven't gotten it together. But a huge Major League Baseball card by the way I'm going to be on Moneyline coming up next to continue all this great baseball talk.
12:27But what a fun three hours. This was a Friday that we got you ready for everything you need to know that's going to take place this weekend from baseball to the Olympics to everything else.
12:36Ton of great guests. Joe Ranieri was a co-host. Thanks to him a lot for helping us out. We will see you Monday for another edition of the Early Line.