MLB Best Bets and Player Props: Race for MLB Playoffs Heats Up
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00:00It is the final week of August, which means we only have one more week before the final
00:05month of the Major League Baseball regular season in the hunt for October.
00:10If you are in the playoff mix, and there's not all that many teams that have a realistic
00:14chance with just over 30 games left, but if you are in the playoff mix and you want to
00:20get hot at the right time, this is your chance.
00:24We update the standings and what it means in terms of those pennant prices live right
00:29here on this Monday.
00:31So DRS, we start in the National League, both the Dodgers and the Phillies, weekend victories.
00:36LA now a game and a half advantage over Philadelphia for that top spot in the National League and
00:42home field advantage all throughout the postseason.
00:45The Phil's slightly in front of the Brewers for that opening round by and through the
00:50wild card round.
00:51The Diamondbacks, a sweep this weekend once again over the Red Sox.
00:56They have a four and a half game advantage over the Braves for the top nationally wild
01:00card spot.
01:01The Padres split with the Mets.
01:03They have a three game lead over Atlanta for that second wild card spot.
01:07But Atlanta still holds on to a two and a half game advantage over the New York Mets
01:11for that third and crucial final wild card spot in the National League.
01:16One of the things that stands out to me, the D-backs and the Padres now at nine to one,
01:21only a dollar behind Atlanta in those pennant prices.
01:24All three of those teams in wild card positions still in front of Milwaukee, who has a double
01:30digit lead for the National League Central.
01:32Yeah, we're looking at these the way they set up, right?
01:35Diamondbacks, Padres, Braves, if it ended today, those would be the three wild card
01:38teams.
01:39Now, granted, some of those teams in the NOS playing for higher aspirations as if they
01:42can take down the Dodgers and legitimately they're within striking distance.
01:46The one thing that the Phillies getting a little bit lucky is when they're not playing
01:49their great baseball, they haven't really got within striking distance.
01:52We're talking about like the Braves or let's just say the Mets here, where it gets down
01:55like two games and you really start to get nervous.
01:57Now, we already talked about the Phillies and the Braves going to play a four game set
02:00this weekend, which is going to be big because if the Phillies and or the Braves can take
02:04it, it's not winning.
02:05Right, Ben?
02:06Two or three games in a series, which is nice.
02:08Winning the series, which means three or four of those games, and that can really shift
02:11the balance of power.
02:12But let's focus on the wild card race in the NL right now.
02:15Diamondbacks, Padres, Braves as the season ended today.
02:17I do still think there's an opportunity for the New York Mets to chase down the Braves
02:22and it might get, as I said, even closer this week if the Phillies can handle their business
02:25in Philadelphia.
02:26But let's remove that from the equation.
02:28I really don't think the Giants, Cardinals and Cubs, which are five, five and five and
02:32a half games back respectively, feel like they're going to be good enough to jump the
02:36Mets and the Braves to get into a one of those wild card spots.
02:39So for me, it feels like it's a foregone conclusion.
02:42Granted, we still have a month left of the season.
02:44The Diamondbacks and the Padres will be those wild card teams and the Braves and the Mets
02:48probably going to fight it out.
02:49Who's going to get that final spot?
02:50I would be shocked that the Giants, Cardinals and Cubs were able to make up enough ground
02:55to leap those.
02:56So it just feels like the Mets or that last hope to overtake the Atlanta Braves here to
03:00get that final wild card spot for me.
03:03And again, a two and a half game lead with more than 30 games left in this major league
03:07baseball season might not feel insurmountable, but it's not necessarily the quickest
03:13advantage to change in the random sport that is baseball.
03:17There is a pretty good pedigree on the Braves, even with the roster that has been so injury
03:23stricken throughout this year to hold off the Mets.
03:27Again, when you look at the odds, Atlanta's price for whatever reason, with a two and
03:32a half game lead to make the playoffs is not up, but the Mets price to make the playoffs
03:37is three to one.
03:38Give me just a moment here to see how many times the Braves and the Mets play each other
03:43throughout the remainder of this regular season.
03:47They will finish the second to last series of the year in Atlanta between the Mets and
03:53the Braves. If it is close, there's your opportunity, but it also could lead to Atlanta really
03:58extending that lead.
03:59And Donnie, to your point, I really do believe the National League wildcard chase is
04:03between two teams for that final spot.
04:06Five games back for both the Giants and the Cardinals and a little bit more even for the
04:10Cubbies is a lot of ground to make up at this moment.
04:14Yeah, and also let's keep in mind when the schedules change, you know, initially with,
04:19let's just say, interleague play, obviously more games are going to be played outside
04:22of your own division. But even in the past couple of years, they wanted to make it more
04:25of a uniform schedule.
04:27So typically it's good that you bring up and like, oh, when were they going to play?
04:30Because nine times out of 10 in the past, it used to be like, OK, they're going to play
04:33a three game set in Atlanta the first week of September and two weeks later, a three
04:37game set in New York.
04:38So you have ample opportunities to sort of close that ground in a head to head
04:42environment, which now you don't get as much of the Major League Baseball because of the
04:46uniform scheduling that they wanted to have.
04:47So you sort of robbed a little bit of that.
04:49But then again, it's up to the Major League Baseball teams.
04:51They're all in the same boat. You're on the same schedule to play with throughout the
04:54season. So you can't be upset that we wanted more games against the Mets and the Braves
04:58because that would decide, like, no, you should have handled your business earlier in the
05:01year. But we are a little bit robbed of those confrontations that typically you would have
05:05in September to try to clinch those divisions or playoff spots.
05:09Only 13 divisional games against your opponent.
05:12So you play each opponent 13 times, used to be closer to 19 around MLB.
05:17And so far between Atlanta and New York in a head to head this year, 10 games played,
05:22the Braves have won five, the Mets have won five as well.
05:26New York scheduled down the stretch.
05:28Not easy. Their final five series, seven games against the Philz.
05:32They have a series against the Nationals.
05:34They end the year against Milwaukee by that point because the Brew crew has a 10 game
05:39lead right now for the top spot in the National League Central.
05:42Milwaukee is probably going to have to do very little.
05:44That could actually be a blessing in disguise, at least on paper right now for the New York
05:49Mets. Let's talk about the Brewers DRS plus 950.
05:53They're a game behind Philadelphia for that second spot, which would be the final buy
05:58through the wildcard round.
06:00If Milwaukee, for whatever reason, were to catch Philadelphia or L.A.
06:05down the stretch, do you think it would even move the Brewers number to win the National
06:09League pennant? I still think it would, because then again, when you're going to line up
06:14against that team you just crossed over, it means you would get a home advantage in your
06:18ballpark at that point.
06:19So it will make a difference.
06:20But I just feel like the odds are out because the playoffs are judged much, much
06:25differently than the regular season.
06:27And you hear me say a lot.
06:28I think Milwaukee plays playoff baseball on a night to night basis.
06:31It's not the, hey, let's get 10 to 7, let's beat you 3 to 1, 3 to 2 at that point.
06:35But I just figure people are posting up with the Dodgers who have a decent starting
06:40pitching staff that they didn't have for most of the summer.
06:42By the time you get around to playoff baseball and the Phillies are going to open up
06:46playoff baseball with Zach Wheeler, followed by Aaron Nola.
06:49And now looks like Ranger Suarez came back off the aisle with a quality performance
06:53against IndyCity. That's the way you match up the playoffs, and that's why you have the
06:56favorites. It's about the matchups, not necessarily the totality of the season and how
07:00played out. And you might be thinking, oh, Arizona's been so hot.
07:05Could they catch Milwaukee?
07:06The three divisional winners get those top three spots.
07:09More than likely, it's the Diamondbacks and the Padres in that wildcard series as the
07:13Dodgers maintain a three game lead in the National League West and the American League
07:18up next on the early line.
07:20The American League playoff picture live on this Monday on the early line on SportsGrid.
07:25Then we'll dive into some of the slate on this Monday as well.
07:29The top three spots right now, the three first place team in the divisions, the Yankees, a
07:33game and a half lead over Baltimore, the Guardians three games up over both the Twins and
07:38the Royals in the American League Central, and the Astros pulling away a four and a half
07:43game lead over Seattle in the American League West.
07:46The O's 11 and 12 here in the month of August.
07:48They've been pretty mediocre since the All-Star break, still maintain a pretty good
07:52cushion for that top American League wildcard spot.
07:55The Royals and the Twins, the same exact record, 72 and 58.
08:00Donnie, it's going to be slightly competitive for the final National League wildcard spot.
08:04Can the Braves hold off the Mets?
08:05The odds makers would say so.
08:08The Royals and the Twins, both a four and a half game lead over Boston for the final
08:12wildcard spots in the American League.
08:15Yeah, and it seems like, again, where you sort of have that cutoff level, but do we even
08:19have a cutoff level here?
08:20We talked about the National League.
08:21It's like, OK, maybe the Mets can jump over the Braves.
08:23But now you're taking a look.
08:24Here's the Royals in that final spot.
08:26If the season ended today, a four and a half game lead over the Boston Red Sox, who are
08:30losers of three straight games.
08:32And those three straight games were in their own ballpark, taking on Arizona.
08:35So if I'm saying to myself, I thought Boston had its chance to surge a little bit earlier
08:40in the season and it looks like it may be stalled out.
08:42Now, the one thing that you can maybe factor in is, once again, the pedigree technically
08:47is not with Kansas City to say, yes, they're so talented, they're going to run away with
08:51this down the stretch.
08:52A lot of young ballplayers on that team who doesn't have don't have a lot of success
08:55winning. And you're dealing with some pitchers here on that same sort of ilk.
08:59So my money still going to say the Royals are going to make it in.
09:02And I don't think the Red Sox, the Mariners, Tampa Bay or Detroit is going to be able to
09:06jump into it. So if we are solidified again, it's still a toss up who's going to win the
09:10Central and who's going to win the East.
09:11But I don't think the Boston Red Sox at four and a half games back have enough to get
09:15over the hump. And we talked about earlier, right, Tanner, how your ace of the staff
09:18leaking oil. Now, things just aren't looking as rosy in Boston as they were just a few
09:23short weeks ago.
09:25So is Seth Lugo for Casey, but four and a half games is a substantial margin to make
09:30up in baseball.
09:32The Royals have the third most difficult schedule remaining in MLB.
09:35They don't play the White Sox anymore throughout this season, which is a tough thing for
09:40an American League Central Club.
09:42But the reason four and a half games is difficult, even if the Royals in this difficult
09:4631, 32 game schedule remaining and the year 14 and 18.
09:52That's a lot that Boston has to do to even leapfrog a Royals team that ends the final
09:57month with a losing record.
10:00We'll get to Casey in just a moment.
10:02The most compelling race, in my opinion, is the top spot of the American League East,
10:06the Yankees and the O's, the second to last set of the season against each other, the
10:11Yanks, a one and a half game advantage over Baltimore, New York.
10:15Minus 180 to win the division.
10:18Donnie, do you agree with the oddsmakers?
10:19Have the Yanks clearly set themselves ahead in the American League East in your mind?
10:25I don't think clearly set themselves ahead per se, because again, we still have a whole
10:28month down the stretch and you have one bad week.
10:30One team has one good week and away your way back into the standings back in it for the
10:34Orioles. But we're sort of setting the stage and we were going through this with the
10:37Yankees for a couple weeks.
10:38Like, oh, what's gotten into them?
10:39I know I picked them to win this division.
10:41They're starting to slip out of it here.
10:42The pitching isn't as good.
10:44The hitters aren't stepping up to the plate.
10:45Fast forward to today, we're talking about the two best players maybe in the American
10:49League on the same team with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
10:52And there's pulverizing their opponents on a day to day basis.
10:55And the Baltimore Orioles, you're trying to line them up and say their starting staff,
10:59including Corbin Burns, isn't what we thought it was going to be.
11:01And what is it actually going to look like when the playoffs actually start in October?
11:07So for my money, I still do think the Yankees are the favorite.
11:09It's not a runaway at this point, but I just wanted to say for real with that all summer
11:13long, I was always a Yankees guy here and I didn't change my tune when they fell out
11:17of first place.
11:18I'm not going to change that tune now that they're back in first place.
11:20I always thought they were the best team here in the AL East.
11:23An intriguing matchup today for the top spot in the American League Central.
11:27Again, the Guardians three games ahead of both Minnesota and KC.
11:32That could change on a dime for Kansas City and Cleveland today.
11:36A doubleheader in the land.
11:37The Guardians, an underdog in game one.
11:40Cole Reagans gets the start for KC.
11:43The Guardians, as of right now, a favorite slightly in game number two.
11:48How does this play out today, DRS, in the land?
11:51I mean, the best you could probably hope for for either team is you just get the split and get
11:54back to business here.
11:55But if you're looking at the pitching matchups, I do think Kansas City does have a slight
11:59advantage in games one and games two, which again, doesn't always equate to victories.
12:03I'm also interesting to see how these managers play with so much up in the air.
12:07Let's just say Cleveland wins game number one.
12:09You're giving some of your players off game number two to even up the field.
12:12Are you going to press that lever down?
12:13Because typically in, let's just say, May and June and maybe earlier July, it's like, hey, you
12:17know what? We can't risk by injuring a player, playing him too much.
12:21That's not the case right now.
12:22You win two games over division rival.
12:24You better take advantage of that and not say, oh, we won game one.
12:27Let's just see what happens in game number two.
12:30Cleveland could extend in front of KC.
12:33The Royals drop their final two games to the Phillies this weekend at home, giving up 11
12:37runs both Saturday and Sunday.
12:39Tom Beck joins us next.
12:41Sports Grids.
12:42Tom Vecchio joins us live right here on this Monday morning on the early line on Sports
12:48Grid for his prop perspective, both at the Daily Slate.
12:52We will see today in MLB some season long props from the home run prop king to the home
12:58run leader in Aaron Judge and a post preseason pick to get you set for the NFL campaign in
13:042024.
13:05Tom Vecchio, as always, thank you for being here on the early line.
13:10Yeah, thanks for having me.
13:11It's good to be here under an official capacity, I guess.
13:14Now, a really interesting time.
13:16We have preseason wrapped up in the NFL.
13:19Rosters are being cut down.
13:20We know who's going to be making the squads.
13:22I have a very, very interesting season long prop that I'm super high on.
13:26You know, let's roll with it.
13:28Let's roll right into it.
13:30We're not exactly sure what the Falcons plan is with Michael Pennix Jr.
13:34having sat him in the final two games of their preseason slate, but we're pretty darn
13:39sure that Kirk Cousins is the starting quarterback in Atlanta, signing a four year, one
13:44hundred and eighty million dollar deal earlier this offseason.
13:48He now steps in as the Falcons signal caller.
13:52But Vecchio last year only played 10 games after suffering a torn Achilles.
13:58So what do you expect out of Kirk in his first year in the ATL?
14:02What does that lead you to believe in terms of his season long props?
14:06Yeah, I'm very high on Kirk Cousins.
14:10So Kirk Cousins over thirty eight hundred passing yards.
14:13I honestly look back to what he did.
14:19A couple of technical difficulties with our guy Vecchio.
14:21Now, listen, I just got to say this is not on Tom.
14:24There's some weather here in the Northeast.
14:26You never know what Wi-Fi signals are going to do.
14:28I don't think Vecchio has ever had a Wi-Fi issue until he started out working at
14:33sports. Is that a space for his curse in terms of the technology?
14:37Vecchio, we're glad to have you back here.
14:39Considering I'm hardwired in and out of Wi-Fi, this is rather surprising.
14:43But we roll on with Kirk Cousins over thirty eight hundred passing yards.
14:48You know, I'm big on the Falcons this year.
14:50Not only him and Drake London, but, you know, this can be a new look for the Falcons
14:55offense. Obviously, Raheem Morris now the head coach.
14:57More importantly, Zach Robinson, who's the new O.C., who's with the Rams since 2019
15:01was their passing game coordinator.
15:03Love the fact that they have a top 10 offensive line.
15:04They have the number one easiest strength of schedule right now.
15:07And Kirk Cousins is surrounded by a ton of talent.
15:10Drake London, like I said, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, they've a ton of options.
15:14And Kirk Cousins is a quarterback who is routinely gone for over 4000 yards.
15:18He's actually on a good pace last year before he got hurt.
15:20So I like what I'm seeing from their offense.
15:23I like being high on them long term.
15:25I like Drake London from a betting perspective.
15:27Already spoke about him from a fantasy perspective.
15:30I think it is all systems go for the Falcons this year.
15:33Yeah, I do think it as well.
15:34I think they win that division.
15:35I do think the addition over there of Kirk Cousins really is going to change some things up in that passing game and just breaking it down roughly about 223 yards per game.
15:43Kirk Cousins needs as long as he's healthy and playing a lot of games in a dome.
15:46He should be just fine there.
15:47Let's flip it over to Major League Baseball here, Tom, and take a look at the two best players in each league careening towards NDP seasons.
15:54That's Aaron Judge.
15:55If you take a look at the fan blue sportsbook, how about this?
15:57Aaron Judge at 63 plus home runs this season is now listed at a minus 115 price.
16:03Aaron Judge, a triple crown at a plus 520 price.
16:06And if you flip it over to Shohei Ohtani, the 50 50 club, you've got to be kidding me, is only at a plus 175 price.
16:14That tells you how talented of a season Ohtani is having in the triple crown for him is at a 10 to 1 price.
16:20Talk to us about judging Ohtani and some of these numbers.
16:24Yeah, the MVP awards are probably locked up at this point.
16:27I would never lay minus 110 or minus 115 on a home run prop, just considering how variable they are, despite how good Judge has been.
16:36The Judge triple crown is interesting.
16:38He's batting 333 right now, Witt is up at 347.
16:41So that is relatively close.
16:42I think the most interesting one besides Judge would be Ohtani and would be Ohtani going for 50 50.
16:48I don't think the triple crown is in play for Ohtani.
16:51Judge can certainly get there.
16:52But I think Ohtani has a better chance to get 50 50 rather than the triple crown.
16:56The batting average is too close.
16:58The home runs are too close.
16:59But the 50 50, I think, is on the table because the home runs will be there.
17:03I think the stolen bases actually have a pretty good chance because it's not like the Dodgers are sitting with a 10 12 game lead, as we kind of expected.
17:09They were even three game lead right now in the West.
17:11They have to continue pushing for that division title.
17:14Betts is back.
17:14They have to have all systems go, you know, their offense.
17:17They can't kind of ease off the gas.
17:19So give me Ohtani going for 50 50 rather than the triple crown.
17:24He joined the 40 40 club on Friday with a grand slam show.
17:30Hey, Ohtani, second most stolen bags, more than 20 behind L.A.
17:33De La Cruz, but still the second most stolen bases in all of MLB this year.
17:38Shohei Ohtani has the second most stolen bases at 40.
17:41He's got the second most home runs with 41.
17:44He's 10 behind Aaron Judge and the guy's going to pitch again next year.
17:48Perhaps the only concern is Ohtani hit by a pitch yesterday,
17:53but they said X-rays negative, a sigh of relief.
17:56Breathe in L.A.
17:58Aaron Judge, by the way, already over his preseason home run prop of 41 and a half.
18:02Already got to 50 plus.
18:04That was plus 300.
18:05And Vecchio, as you well know, seems well on pace to at least be the home run leader in the bigs this year.
18:10It was a seven to one number before the year got started elsewhere.
18:14On this Monday, we go to Minneapolis.
18:17Two teams in the wildcard chases in their respective leagues.
18:20It's the twins hosting the Braves over under is eight.
18:24Minnesota, a home favorite now at minus 120.
18:28The market moving in the twin cities.
18:31What do you expect out of the opener this week in Minneapolis?
18:35Wouldn't be surprised to see at least a lack of offense in this game.
18:38I will say there are some opportunities across the market to find some middle grounds and pitching props.
18:44Bailey over over five and a half strikeouts is sitting at minus 150 on some books.
18:49It's also under six and a half and minus 152 on some other books.
18:52So, you know, with the Braves, with their offense, Michael Harris got removed yesterday or yesterday, the day before with a hand thing.
18:59Their lineup keeps taking hits like every other day.
19:00At a certain point, this lineup isn't very good anymore.
19:03And Bailey over is a good enough pitcher to rack up a few strikeouts.
19:07So I don't expect him to have eight or nine.
19:09But getting over five, maybe still staying under six and a half.
19:12I think there's some interesting opportunities in this game.
19:14In the Heartland today, San Diego going to take on St.
19:17Louis Vasquez versus Gibson, a slight favorite here for the hometown cards here to minus 118 price in a total of nine and a half.
19:25It looks like St.
19:25Louis just about going to be extinguished here from the playoffs.
19:29And the Padres yesterday stole a big time game off of the Mets.
19:32What happens tonight here in St.
19:33Louis and San Diego, Tom?
19:35I don't know who wins this game, but we're going to see some offense in this one.
19:38It's super hot in St.
19:39Louis. It's going to be over 90 degrees.
19:41Both pitchers are just about as average.
19:43You can get Randy Vasquez, Kyle Gibson, both at Babbitt's allowed Babbitt's over 300, both strikeout rates under 22%.
19:49Gibson's on 1.19 home runs per nine.
19:51Vasquez at 1.32.
19:53There's enough offense on both sides, obviously, mainly with the Padres.
19:56I expect some scoring tonight.
19:57It's a basically a coin flip when it comes to money line.
19:59But give me some runs tonight.
20:00I don't care who wins.
20:01I think the Padres keep rolling ultimately.
20:04Yeah, San Diego, 15 and seven in August, the cards have won their last two series against the Brewers and the Twins.
20:10But still just an even 500 on the outside, looking in at the National League playoff picture.
20:17Becky, let's go elsewhere around MLB on this Monday.
20:21We're calling it a potential World Series preview.
20:24Maybe two divisional front runners, the Philz in the National League East, the Astros in the American League West.
20:29They head to the bank today in Philly.
20:31Zach Wheeler gets the start for the Philz.
20:34They're booked as a minus 172 home money line favorite.
20:37What's your favorite play?
20:39That'd be going to Zach Wheeler under six and a half strikeouts.
20:43And, you know, I've spoken before over the past few years about Wheeler and Nola being two of the best, if not the two best pitchers in the NL, that combo.
20:50But, you know, the Astros are a really good team.
20:52And the Astros are super disciplined.
20:54I said time and time again, they go super low striker rate versus Radys at 18.5 percent.
20:58So it's the third lowest in the league.
20:59They're also very solid off to 111 WRC plus versus Radys.
21:02So ultimately, I think it's a wash.
21:03And I think I'll just take the under on Wheeler tonight.
21:06It's also a good hitter's park, as we know.
21:08So Vecchio, as we have 11 games on this Monday, it's because of the addition of the double header in Cleveland.
21:14Day-night double header.
21:16What's your best play from the two games in the land?
21:19Yeah, that's going to be Logan Allen for the Guardians under four and a half strikeouts.
21:23He's got a low 19.2 percent strikeout rate.
21:26Royals also super disciplined versus the lefties at also a 19 percent strike rate.
21:29It's the fifth lowest in the league.
21:31You know, looking back over Allen's game, like we see this one game against the Giants with nine strikeouts, but he's routinely just going for three or four.
21:38Maybe five on a given day.
21:40So again, siding with the under for a low strikeout picture.
21:44Allen gets the start in game number two for the Guardians.
21:47They're a slight home favorite in that second game.
21:50A slight home underdog in game one.
21:52Day baseball in Cleveland between the Royals and the Guardians.
21:56Tom Vecchio, we appreciate the time as always.
21:59More MLB breakdowns next.
22:01More MLB plays on this Monday.
22:04DRS, we go to your neck of the woods in Philadelphia first.
22:07Zach Wheeler and the Pharoahs, a minus 172 favorite against the Astros, who sent out Ronel Blanco.
22:14As we look at the total today in Philadelphia, eight is the number.
22:18The under has the juice.
22:20The Astros split their four game set, winning the finale yesterday in Baltimore against the O's this weekend.
22:27The Pharoahs taking the final two games in KC.
22:30The offense picking up once again.
22:32They scored at least 11 runs or scored exactly 11 runs, excuse me, in the last two games.
22:37What are your thoughts for game one today in Philadelphia between the Phillies and the Astros?
22:42You usually get a bigger bump from the home team that's fresh off of not playing on Sunday night baseball.
22:47But if you keep in mind how close like Houston was playing to Philadelphia last night, it's not that long of a trip.
22:52And it's not like, hey, you know, we played in Los Angeles, so we got to fly to the East Coast.
22:56We just played on Sunday night baseball.
22:57So you'll get a better performance out of the Houston Astros from a refreshment point.
23:01But having said that, Philadelphia Phillies have been very good this weekend on offense, waking out of their slumber.
23:07If you look at Blanco, he's a right-handed pitcher, but he does really struggle with left-handed batters.
23:11That's Schwarber, that's Harper, that's Stott, that's Marsh in this lineup.
23:15And also Austin Hayes on the back end of it.
23:18Be interesting to see him coming back into the flow now, fresh off of that hamstring injury.
23:23But if I'm just being optimistic, Zach Wheeler's on the mound.
23:26It's a two game streak here.
23:27These are the ones you're supposed to win.
23:29But I just have this malaise over the Phillies for me.
23:31It's like, OK, we won yesterday.
23:33Everybody in our division lost again.
23:34It's OK if we lose.
23:36Like, I just feel like that's the and I understand that's not the psyche of Zach Wheeler taking the mound or Bryce Harper.
23:40But you know what?
23:41Six game lead. It's not that big of a deal.
23:43Sooner or later, you got to put your foot down here as a nice series win against Kansas City.
23:47Now you have three games at home up here against Houston, followed by four games at home against the Atlanta Braves.
23:53You're supposed to go five and two in those games.
23:55But also start these series off with a victory, not climbing from behind.
24:00So I do think the Phillies have the better picture on the mound and technically the better lineup in their home ballpark.
24:05They should win this game.
24:06But how many times have you seen me breaking down Phillies game saying they're supposed to win this game, only to draw dead and have me go again in the first inning?
24:14You know what? Watch the top of the first Phillies down two to nothing.
24:16I'm out for the rest of the night here.
24:18Just give me something to enjoy.
24:20Watch. Not yesterday with Boehm catching a baseball and stepping on third base as if it's three outs.
24:25It was only two outs.
24:26I'm like, I can't even watch this anymore at this point.
24:28So hopefully they can pick up a dub tonight.
24:30Goodness.
24:31He made up for it, though, did Alec Boehm.
24:33A couple of RBIs in the game.
24:35Nick Castellanos, a two run shot Bryce Harper, an RBI double.
24:39Kyle Schwarber, three ribbies.
24:40He wants the big names in that offensive lineup to come through.
24:44They did yesterday to win the rubber match and the set in Kansas City.
24:48So now Philadelphia, an opportunity back home against the Astros.
24:52It is an advantage right now for the Phil's in the National League East.
24:55Still have six games over the Braves.
24:58The Braves on the road to start off this week in Minnesota against the Twins, as we shared with Vecchio.
25:03Minnesota, a minus 120 home money line favorite over under is eight.
25:08The Twins lost the weekend to the Cardinals.
25:10The Braves won the weekend, had a chance for a sweep yesterday against the Nats.
25:14Washington did avoid that sweep.
25:17Yeah, that heat wave out in the Midwest yesterday.
25:18You saw that Phillies game, 90 plus, 90 plus degree temperatures.
25:21They're sweating up a storm.
25:23The reason I bring that up is tonight in Minnesota, typically not that environment.
25:26Like, oh, it's going to be hot.
25:27No, 88 degrees at first pitch at night tonight in Minnesota, going up against Atlanta.
25:31Slight wind blowing in from right field at five miles per hour.
25:34If we are looking at Bailey Ober, he's had a very good season, particularly over the past 30 days.
25:39126 batters, Ben, he's faced.
25:41How about an 087 ISO to weighted on base percentage of 199?
25:45How about a K rate at 28% combined with a highlight of 32% of the left-handed batters that go against them have struck out in the last month?
25:52And let's flip it over to the other side.
25:54Max Fried hasn't been great over the past month, but he does have decent ISO power numbers against, which is 064 through 92 batters that he's faced over the past month.
26:03But if you are taking with that Twins lineup, which I do like, they haven't hit left-handed pitching all that great here.
26:08Last 30 days in that lineup, outside of Royce Lewis, Santana and Farmer, a lot of guys below 500 per se.
26:15They're at that weighted on base percentage and a lot of strikeouts here.
26:18So instead of saying, I actually think, and I do that the Twins will win this game, you know, I like better in this game.
26:23I don't think we get the nine runs here.
26:25I'll take the under eight.
26:27It is a little intriguing to see Max Fried get a start for Atlanta, even on the road in the Braves being underdog, but that is the case as of right now.
26:36Again, Atlanta, two and a half games up for that third and final wildcard spot in the national league late night out in the Pacific Northwest.
26:44The Mariners, a series victory this weekend.
26:47Good for Seattle over San Francisco.
26:50The Rays go all the way up the West coast to the Northwest after losing their weekend set to LA.
26:56That being the Dodgers yesterday, the Mariners, a home favorite today, four and a half games back of Houston in the American league West.
27:03If there is ever going to be a charge for the Mariners, it starts right here, right now.
27:08Will Seattle answer the call?
27:10Yeah, here's what's going to answer the call.
27:12Is anybody going to be able to get the four runs in this baseball game?
27:14That's the question mark.
27:15You see that total, which is ultra low at seven and rightfully so.
27:18If you take a look at two major league baseball teams right now and said, boy, which teams would you not want to have at the plate in a key situation?
27:25It's probably the Tampa Bay and it's probably Seattle.
27:27So for myself, again, true pitchers, ballpark, late night game.
27:31It needs to be a playoff atmosphere for both of these teams because there is no tomorrow if you continuously lose.
27:36So I look for myself saying, I don't know who's going to win this game because I do think it's a toss up.
27:39But I'm not taking this game to go over eight runs to lose.
27:42I think it stays at seven or less here.
27:44So another under on the card for me.
27:47Yeah, seven is that total.
27:49Might we see some offense where it's hot under the arch in St.
27:52Louis? Total is nine between the Padres and the Guardian.
27:56St.
27:56Louis, a slight home favorite.
27:58What's the play?
27:59Yeah, the play for me, obviously just looking towards St.
28:02Excuse me, against St.
28:03Louis and towards San Diego.
28:04Gibson's on the mound.
28:05Last 30 days, terrible.
28:07A 209 ISO against with a weighted on base percentage of 372.
28:11But that's an equal opportunity.
28:12Ben lefties and righties getting the best of him outside of Jake Cronenwurst.
28:16139 ISO and a 304 weighted on base percentage.
28:19Every single player on that roster for San Diego, their weighted on base percentage is above average against right handed pitching over the past 30 days.
28:27It is hot.
28:28I think the runs will be provided by the San Diego Padres.
28:32The Pittsburgh Pirates get ready to host the Cubs if Chicago is going to make a run.
28:36It also starts now to stay in nationally wildcard contention.
28:40The Bucco is winning a four game set, taking three of four against the Reds this weekend.
28:44What happens today inside PNC?
28:47Yeah, how about yesterday's Chicago with Oller on the mound or facing Oller?
28:50We were able to muster two runs yesterday.
28:52Actually took that over at nine and a half.
28:53And if you would have told me that the Marlins would play seven runs and I would take a loss.
28:57I mean, come on, Chicago.
28:58So getting back to it today, Jamison Tyone, a decent pitcher, but struggling over the past 30 days, particularly against left handed batters to the tune of a
29:06406 iso power number.
29:08Mitch Keller also struggled with lefties.
29:10I do think that Cubs lineup does have a bounce back today with a lot of lefties in the lineup.
29:14Maybe a team total over for the Cubs would have thought that DRS enjoy the money line or TEL next.