MLB Futures Bets + Analysis: Yankees, Orioles Lead AL Race
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00:00Now we go to Major League Baseball following the weekend that was. The week
00:06after the trade deadline that was just six days ago. We set up the outlook for
00:12the run to October and earning playoff contention. The Yankees remain the
00:16favorites in the American League at plus 240. Just 40 cents though in front of
00:21Baltimore at plus 280. Cleveland a six to one number in third. The Guardians the
00:28best record in the American League. The Astros and the Twins tied for that
00:32fourth-best price at seven to one. Five teams Donnie in the American League at
00:37seven to one. We'll show you the NL odds in just a moment. That has really been a
00:42two-team race all year long. But there are five teams at seven to one or
00:47shorter in the American League. Only three at that price or better in the
00:52National League. So we expect it to be highly highly competitive for that
00:56American League pennant. Yeah and by the way you are look at those top two teams
01:00here. It's the Yankees and the Orioles and rightfully so. Right now the fan blue
01:02sportsbook plus 240 and plus 280. I completely agree with that. I still think
01:06the Yankees have the slight upper hand here. I think they're going forward for
01:10the rest of the season as a complete team just a little bit better than the
01:13O's. But that margin is close and if you're telling me hey Don I think the
01:16O's are gonna win. Look there's arguments to be made for that as well. But if I'm
01:19looking in totality for the American League myself. Yankees, Orioles clear-cut
01:23favorites here. Then of course Guardians, Astros, Twins and Mariners. But if we're
01:27being honest like if you are I don't know Yankees or Orioles fans. You expect
01:31and hopefully meet up let's just say in an ALCS at that point. But the thing
01:35that's going to happen here is as we head down the stretch. Right now it's a
01:39dead heat in the American League East. And why that is big? Because both teams
01:43can't win their division here. They're in the same division. So once you see the
01:47Yankees under the Orioles win. You might be getting a really nice price point on
01:51number two. Because the Orioles let's just say a plus 280. They're still the
01:55second best team record wise in the American League. They shouldn't be the
01:59second best team in the odds market. Because their path is gonna be much
02:02harder. Where other teams are going to have home field advantage against the
02:05Baltimore Orioles. So maybe if you're looking at a stance like you know what
02:08Donnie. I'm not ready to make a decision right now on who I think is going to win
02:12that division. Yankees or Orioles. But at the end of the season let's just say the
02:15Yankees win it by two games or the Orioles win it by two games. I'm
02:18interested to see what that price point not on the division champions gonna be.
02:21But on the second place team. Because you're gonna get a much better price
02:25point. And for me I do think it's far and away Ben in the American League. The
02:28two best teams are the Yankees and the Orioles. And I don't think it's
02:31particularly close. I would have to agree with you Donnie. You might be able to
02:36position yourself better in the playoff bracket. But I still think from the odds
02:40perspective in the overall optimistic outlook. The Yankees and the O's a peg
02:45above. So let's talk about what we are seeing then in the American League
02:50postseason format. Of course the expanded MLB playoffs. Here's where
02:55things stand in both leagues. Six teams now qualify the three divisional
02:59champions. Three wild card teams. The top two teams get a buy into the
03:04division series. Past wild card weekend which is a best of three. Donnie there
03:10has been that belief that the last few years in the expanded postseason being
03:14in a wild card spot in playing right away actually might provide a benefit
03:20for how random baseball can be even in October. That's what we saw last year.
03:25The Rangers and the Diamondbacks. Both wild card teams making it to a World
03:30Series. Texas winning a World Series championship for the first time in
03:34organization history. So do not be scared if Baltimore relinquishes its
03:40lead in the American League East. The Yanks and the O's now tied for the top
03:43spot but New York in front from the odds makers point of view at a minus 150
03:49price. Cleveland still four and a half games up over Minnesota in the American
03:54League Central. Seattle a one game lead over Houston in the American League West.
03:58But when you look from the odds that is the story. Their favorites, co-favorites
04:04right now. Seattle and Houston to win that divisional title in the AL West.
04:08Minus 110 for the M's. Minus 110 for the Stroh's. But look at what the odds are
04:13telling you. Houston a much better price at 7-1 to win the American League
04:17pennant than that of Seattle. Yeah because the pedigree is there for the
04:21Houston Astros. Been there, done that before. The Mariners usually that team
04:24like ah we'll see what they can do in April, May and June and then typically
04:27fall by the wayside. But I did like the moves that the Mariners added to get a
04:30couple bats into that lineup and it certainly helped them out. Had a nice
04:33series against the Phillies. Weren't able to scrape too much about up yesterday
04:36against Zach Wheeler but that's going to happen from time to time. But you are
04:39right about once you get to the playoffs and a team that's already playoff
04:42established. You call it that slingshot effect where let's just say the Orioles
04:46do lose the AL East but then head into the wild card and win it. They're
04:49already in playoff mode and that's also the same belief where if you have a team
04:53that's up 7, 8, 9 or 10 games with two weeks to play in the Major League
04:56Baseball season. Taking their foot off the gas when another team two to three
05:00games back of the wild card and makes it in to the playoffs. They've already been
05:04in playoff mode locked and loaded ready to go as the playoff start. Get that
05:08tripping point usually comes in round number one and we'll see if teams
05:11handled a little bit differently this year but it will be fun to watch. I'm
05:14still gonna stick with that prognostication that the Yankees are my
05:17team in the AL and we'll see how it plays out that way.
05:19You saw there too the Royals at 18 to 1. The Red Sox at 23 to 1. A $5
05:25difference. KC a two and a half game lead for the third and final American
05:30League wildcard spot at this moment. To the National League we go up next. The
05:34National League pennant prices ahead of a huge midweek series that starts
05:39tonight out in downtown Los Angeles between the Dodgers and the Phillies. In
05:44DRS when you look at these two teams right now both have been struggling as
05:50of late but the Philz even more so since the All-Star break. But really for the
05:55last two months in Major League Baseball it's been a two-team race atop the
06:00National League. The Dodgers still the favorites at plus 160. 70 cents in front
06:05of the Philz at plus 230. The Braves are there and they should be but I don't
06:10know anybody that is overly optimistic that Atlanta can surpass either the
06:14Dodgers or the Phillies in playoff contention or in those pennant prices.
06:19The other teams in the National League we'll get to in just a moment but we
06:23start at the top with this midweek marquee series about to begin tonight in
06:28LA between the Dodgers and the Philz. The Philz avoid a sweep in Seattle
06:33yesterday. Zach Wheeler sensational winning 6-0. The Dodgers won the final
06:38two games of their set against the Oakland Athletics to win the series
06:42against the A's but did enter on a three-game win streak in terms of that
06:47Saturday matchup against Oakland a three-game skid. So the Dodgers got off
06:52to a great start following the All-Star break struggling a little bit more here
06:56in the last week. The Phillies just 4-11 since that All-Star break.
07:00Yeah and coming out of the break here some of that momentum obviously lost
07:04between the two but if we are looking at this series how much is gonna change the
07:07landscape because as we saw the Phillies in their previous matchup against the
07:10Los Angeles Dodgers in Philadelphia ended up sweeping them. The Dodgers would
07:14love to return that favor we'll see but also the Phillies got a big win
07:17yesterday not because we don't think the Phillies are going to another game the
07:20rest of the season it's just the timing of it yet such a devastating loss on
07:24Saturday night would look like you were finally gonna clear that hurdle and then
07:28Zach Wheeler to the rescue on Sunday who was phenomenal and then knowing that
07:31it's not as if you're going to play again the Chicago White Sox on Monday
07:35oh we'll get back right you're headed into Los Angeles where that is gonna be
07:38an unbelievable playoff atmosphere and see who's gonna be the best now the
07:42Phillies might be looking at this year's going like of course I don't think we're
07:45gonna sweep but let's at least get one of these games here not swept by the
07:49Dodgers because that really could turn a lot of things on their head yeah the
07:52Phillies are a solid ballclub the Dodgers are a solid ballclub to me two
07:55of the best teams in the National League but as we pointed out multiple
07:58times sometimes it's not how you're playing now it's how you're playing down
08:01the stretch because the other talented teams I'm not worried about the Braves I
08:05said it all season long still think they're gonna be a playoffs just don't
08:08think they have enough talent to do a lot of damage once they reach the
08:10National League playoffs the Milwaukee Brewers yellow it's in the back the
08:13lineup sometimes questionable but you look now if those teams out there in the
08:17NL West the Dodgers obviously first and foremost but now you're seeing the
08:21Padres with all that talent finally starting to turn it on the Arizona
08:25Diamondbacks who made the World Series last year finally starting to play good
08:28baseball are those the teams that we worry about where you say Dodgers
08:31Phillies skip over the Braves skip over the Brewers and then start to worry
08:34about the Padres and the Diamondbacks because you'll have to play them in a
08:38wild-card series I don't think anybody wants to do that at this point
08:41Milwaukee a five and a half game lead in the National League Central it would
08:45seem as of this moment as really has been the case all year long the brew
08:50crew are going to be in the postseason how much October doors they make that
08:54remains to be seen right now Philadelphia still a game and a half
08:59lead over LA for what would be the number one spot in the National League
09:04playoff bracket but those two teams earning a bye seem set as of this moment
09:10Milwaukee not all that far behind I guess you could say but from the price
09:15perspective how far back do we go San Diego as of this moment 12 to 1 to win
09:23the National League pennant the Diamondbacks 19 to 1 to repeat as a
09:28National League pennant winner the Padres since the all-star break 11 and
09:333 Arizona since the all-star break 11 and 4 playing much better baseball at
09:38this moment and occupying two of those three National League wild-card
09:43positions yeah you're looking at those teams because you're trying to catch the
09:46lightning in a bottle and it is going to change from week to week to month to
09:50month here Phillies were the best team of baseball then they look like the
09:52worst team in baseball we'll see if they recover but also more from a
09:55betting perspective sure you want to take the Phillies and the Dodgers still
09:58thinking the cream is going to rise to the top but when you're just looking at
10:01price points saying boy the Padres are really good and you look at their
10:04frontline starting pitching their bullpen that they reamped up here at the
10:08trade deadline and just the talent of that one through nine this year why not
10:11because they're taking a look at a 12 to 1 price the Diamondbacks who have the
10:15official caught lightning in a bottle team last year heading into the World
10:18Series they're at a 19 to 1 price like they're buyable numbers where you figure
10:22if they can make the playoffs maybe they can do some damage because again just
10:26looking at the Diamondbacks oh we're just lucky to be here last year we made
10:29it and got knocked no you made it to the World Series and the Padres certainly
10:33have enough talent to make a deep run here and also if the Dodgers and or
10:36Phillies are faltering down the stretch those are the two teams of look I'm up
10:39aiming right now that NLS not the first-place team of the Dodgers but the
10:43teams behind them they might be able to shake it up here in the NL down the
10:46stretch LA still a four and a half game lead in the division but it is getting
10:52much time our three comes your way up next