MLB Best Bets for Today's Games + Yankees vs Guardians
Transcript
00:00from week zero of college football to the Major League Baseball season nearing
00:04the end of August with only one more month that September of the regular
00:08season left to go. Mark Zitto does it all for us on this Wednesday on the early
00:14lines. Zitto, as you came on to the show we asked what you were frustrated by. Was
00:18it the 12 inning defeat for your Yankees last night to the Cleveland
00:22Guardians where the Guardians scored six runs in the top of the 12th. You said not
00:26so much. Maybe hey if things go haywire for the Yanks Aaron Boone will finally
00:31be let go up in the Bronx. But I do want to ask you from a handicapping
00:35perspective about the significance of this game and this series. Again
00:39Cleveland wins 9-5 in 12 innings. You know how tightly compact the top
00:45of the standings are around the American League in the AL East Division for the
00:49Yankees against the Orioles and to claim that number one overall seed in the AL
00:54the Guardians now have the advantage there. The Yankees backed by a half game
00:58of Baltimore in the American League East. Does it add on any more magnitude or
01:05significance to these games the Yankees will play this week at home against
01:09Cleveland? Well at least it tells you where you stack up against them in your
01:13current form which is closest to the regular season then if they had played
01:16these series back in April or May and teams look totally different. The Yankees
01:20we know look totally different back in April and May in the hot start that they
01:22got comparatively speaking to where they are now. I mean you know Cleveland
01:27for all intents and purposes has been probably the most consistent team
01:30outside of Baltimore in baseball this year as far as where they've gone.
01:34You know they hit a little bit of a low coming out of the all-star break but for
01:38the most part this is a team that has the best bullpen and best closing
01:43situation of any team heading to the postseason and that's the one edge that
01:47I would get over them. I've said it repeated look the Yankees went to a game
01:51against the Tigers on Sunday Night Baseball look what Clay Holmes did. He
01:54blew a lead and the Yankees lost the game. That kind of thing that happens in
01:58a playoff series will end you even if it's just one game it literally could
02:02turn the series around. So with Cleveland having the best closer and the best
02:07bullpen they have a decided edge over everybody else even if their bats aren't
02:11in great position they've got good enough starting pitching as well that I
02:15believe that this is a real measuring stick for the Yankees as to how close
02:19they are to actually getting out of the American League and getting to a World
02:22Series because Cleveland seems to have set the standard. I think the Yankees
02:25believe they can hang with Baltimore just because again Baltimore has their
02:28own bullpen and closer issues just like the Yankees do. Cleveland isn't facing
02:32that scenario. If we are take a look at the AL in totality here at the Fandu
02:36Sportsbook there are five teams at a ten to one price or less to win that AL
02:40pennant. That's the Twins, Guardians, Astros, Orioles and Yankees. Now up top
02:43obviously it's the Yankees and the Orioles but look at the Houston Astros at
02:47a plus 430 price. Let me ask this question Mark. Outside of the Yankees and
02:51the Orioles who right now considered the top dogs are we trusting the Houston
02:54Astros now? A team that I left for dead a month and a half ago now surging looks
02:58like they're going to win the AL West but I still can't buy back into the
03:01Astros. Do you have a pathway to victory or that you see for the Houston Astros
03:05here? Yeah I actually I do and again I told you guys back in the middle of June
03:10I thought Houston was a great bet to win the AL West. When you look at a look
03:14adding Fran Breval does first of all at the top of the rotation. They had Yusei
03:18Kikuchi who has been very good since coming over. Not only that Hunter Brown
03:22and Ronell Blanco have quietly had fantastic seasons. They have the best
03:26starting staff all deference to the Cleveland Guardians who have been very
03:30very good in the starting pitching role but they have the best starting depth
03:34one two three and four of any pitching team in the American League. They just do
03:39like that's that's what their strength is and obviously look if Houston somehow
03:43I don't think they'll be able to to snake home field advantage from anybody
03:47but at least in the first couple of rounds getting to the ALCS guess what
03:51they're gonna have home field advantage play a ton of runs. It took them a while
03:56to get going but they've also got the postseason experience. They've also got
04:00players who have been through this ringer several times before. You know
04:03the Guardians and the Yankees and the Orioles don't have a lot of deep
04:06postseason experience because guess what they haven't gotten there. So from that
04:10standpoint you know these are teams that are all kind of chasing Houston down as
04:15far as you know trying to to be a team that can upset the applecart for them to
04:19win the World Series. Texas pulled it off last year but I don't I don't think any
04:23of these teams I wouldn't bet any of these teams head-to-head in Houston in
04:26the ALCS right now. Interesting and I would wonder to see if Houston made it
04:31to an eighth consecutive ALCS appearance what would their odds be at that stage?
04:36That's where the Astros have been and we'll see the addition to some depth in
04:40that starting rotation as Justin Verlander makes his return today. He was
04:45sidelined since the early parts of June. Now let's flip it over to the National
04:51League also making his return to the bump yesterday that was Reinaldo Lopez
04:55for Atlanta. He had not pitched since the end of July in his first outing since.
05:00Five innings of work only allowing a single earned run to the Philz striking
05:05out ten. The Braves win the opener of their midweek set against their
05:08divisional foe in Philadelphia three to one the victory for the Braves at home.
05:14Zeno I asked you about significance of these games yes in a regular season set
05:18even deeper into the season for the matchup with the Yankees and the
05:22Guardians in the American League. It's not necessarily the significance of the
05:27result yesterday for Atlanta as a whole but how important was it to get Reinaldo
05:31Lopez back looking as he did? It's gotta feel good for the Braves to at least be
05:37able to take one from the Phillies and not get swept and at a minimum they know
05:42they'll only lose one game in the standings if the Phillies end up taking
05:44the other two but you know look the Braves are a mass unit they're a dead
05:49man walking right now the only thing hurt more than the Braves is my bankroll
05:52my feelings after getting dumped in 12th grade by Christine so you know at this
05:56point the Braves are the only thing still walking is representing is
06:02representing a major league team that's not really a major league team I mean
06:05they just don't have their opening day lineup to now guys is a joke like it's
06:09it's literally nothing the same so they're gonna make the playoffs cuz
06:13again I just don't think that there's anybody there who could take it away
06:15from them when it comes down to it but I everybody in Atlanta right now is kind
06:20of thrown in the towel that this team has any real chance to do anything yeah
06:24the Braves a two-and-a-half game lead over the New York Mets for that third
06:29and final National League wildcard spot it was just a game and a half yesterday
06:35but the Mets lost to Baltimore and the Braves get a big win over Philadelphia
06:40the Braves still the third best price in the National League pennant chase the
06:43Dodgers the favorites a plus 160 the Phil's less than a dollar behind plus 250
06:49quickly you know I would assume that you would rather bet on the Padres the
06:54Brewers perhaps maybe even the Diamondbacks rather than Atlanta I locked
06:59in the Padres last week to win the NL in the World Series it's a baseball right
07:03now I'm not gonna turn my back on him you know I bet against him last night it
07:06didn't go well so at least we're trending in the right direction both
07:09holes yeah a victory over Minnesota last night courtesy of Jerickson pro for in a
07:14big eighth inning the Padres have won 13 of their last 60 will preview some games
07:19on this Wednesday that a full Wednesday card around Major League Baseball
07:24including some day games in the return of one Justin Verlander for Houston
07:30Mark Zinno here for a third consecutive segment to route out our number two with
07:35some MLB breakdowns on this Wednesday we start in H town probably only gonna go
07:39three or four innings right like you just know he's not he's not gonna be
07:42pushed too hard when he comes from his first start back so it'll be about the
07:48Astros bats and can they get to Cooper Criswell which is quite the name but
07:53beyond that if Verlander can you know take care of business here early on you
07:58also have to trust the fact that the Astros bullpen which is good one of the
08:03better ones in baseball when it comes to era and whip you know should be able to
08:07take care of business the rest of the way out at the Red Sox don't score early
08:10against Verlander don't like their chances here take a look at a late night
08:15game tonight 1010 first pitch 929 930 the rotation at Seattle and Los Angeles
08:20Gilbert versus Flaherty heavy favorite here for the Dodgers minus 178 currently
08:24at the fan blue sportsbook in a total of seven and a half when I look at these
08:28two teams latch up when I say to myself we're gonna add another quality pitcher
08:31on the mound for the Seattle Mariners and it almost doesn't matter who the
08:34pitcher on the opposite side is because mark they can't hit the baseball tell me
08:37about tonight's effort because Flaherty is a marquee starter for the Dodgers but
08:41I just look at that Seattle lineup and say I don't know if I can trust them to
08:44get three runs therefore I don't know how I take them on a day-to-day basis
08:48and that's the problem it's impossible to bet on Seattle because their offense
08:53is untrustworthy they did they're just not a team that you can back now Flaherty
08:58hasn't faced the Mariners yet this year so you know that may probably gives him
09:03even a little bit more of an edge of it Flaherty on the bump for LA and since
09:07coming over you know Flaherty hasn't exactly been fantastic he gave up four
09:12runs in five and two-thirds against the Pirates he gave up three runs in five
09:16innings against Milwaukee in a game that they lost so maybe you keep you hope
09:21that Flaherty not had other great start it's not a route that I would go I still
09:27tend to think more than that you know with Logan on the road where he's a
09:32little bit worse all these Seattle pitchers are worse on the road than they
09:35are at home at AT&T Safeco whatever it's called now team T-Mobile I forget which
09:39phone runs that part but anyway so the idea that the idea that that Seattle is
09:45a team to back look again back in first five right because at this rate if
09:49they're not scoring early they're not scoring late and that's just the reality
09:53of it why sweat it out for nine innings if they can't lead after five and keep
09:56the push in your back pocket then why even worry about it the Dodgers looking
10:00for a sweep and heavily favored to do so Jack Flaherty in his first outing for LA
10:05six innings of shutout baseball in his last two he is allowed seven earned runs
10:10the Dodgers have won two of the three that Flaherty has started for them in
10:15Los Angeles that's the last game on the card tonight late night in Los Angeles
10:19the first game up is the rubber match of this midweek series between Baltimore
10:23and New York the Mets play host to the Orioles as a slight home favorite once
10:28again the Amazons have actually been favorite at home and now all three of
10:31the games in this series against Baltimore they won game one walk off
10:35courtesy of Francisco Alvarez yesterday Baltimore responds plating nine in a
10:40nine-to-five victory so Zeno who takes the rubber match with some day baseball
10:44up in Queens. Sean Menea is on the mound who looks like a human cabbage patch
10:50doll and the Orioles hit lefty pitching very well and that's sort of the problem
10:56here for Menea who has been able to take care of teams that don't hit lefties
11:00well but the Orioles do hit lefties well the problem for the Orioles is that
11:03Cole Irvin is starting making you know start for the first time I think in a
11:08while now it's been for him but the Orioles starting pitching continues to
11:14be a little bit more perplexing now Zach Efflin goes on the DL here I told you
11:18they've got bullpen issues I don't like this spot for the Orioles here it's fun
11:23to take him as a dog though I'll tell you that much I mean they're much more
11:25amenable to take as a dog and hope their offense comes through but I just don't
11:29see it happening for them and Cole Irvin they've lost five consecutive start
11:34seven consecutive starts with him on the mound this year this team has so you
11:38know again it's it's one of those spots where you know do you trust Cole Irvin
11:43here in a spot-start situation be able to get get things get this done and I
11:47just don't know that you do Baltimore one of seven teams around the bigs that
11:52has a winning record straight up as an underdog they are 14 and 12 including
11:56the victory last night 9 to 5 over New York Mark Zeno we appreciate the time
12:01thank you for being here on this Wednesday next week the mouth in the
12:05South is back for some college football conversation hour three comes your way
12:11up next year on sports live right here on this Wednesday on the early line on
12:15sports grid the end of August is near the final month of the Major League
12:20Baseball season then on the horizon with sights already on October our MLB
12:25insider Craig Misch the host of Newswire each and every day starting at
12:2911 a.m. Eastern Time joins us now live here on this Wednesday on the early line
12:35Craig as always thanks for being here yeah sure you know big announcement by
12:39the way the World Baseball Classic just made their announcement for the 2026
12:44tournament a lot of the games could be played here in South Florida against
12:48semifinals and finals as well I know we're still a couple of years away from
12:51that but if you guys remember there was a lot of fun to watch a couple of years
12:55ago by the way oh yeah I just want the butter on this topic based on the sports
13:01grid producers here is that next year 2026 is World Baseball Classic when is
13:06that it's a two years three years 26 okay okay all right just Craig we had
13:12some small confusion and we needed some clarity this morning as we had some of
13:17the years that were slightly different from the projected odds of this year in
13:22the pre-season but because it we're not gonna get into that right now what we're
13:26gonna get into is the biggest headlines around Major League Baseball as we go to
13:31each and every single bag around the diamond it's time for daily basis
13:40Craig yesterday the O's bouncing back and evening up a series in New York
13:45against the Mets but do so with some bad news for another starting pitcher this
13:49one newly acquired that's Zach Eflin from the Tampa Bay Rays ahead of the
13:54trade deadline Eflin is now added to a long list of arms and frankly players on
14:00the IL for Baltimore Craig are you concerned at all about the Orioles
14:05starting staff entering playoff baseball where Baltimore right now currently the
14:10second best priced when the American League pennant yeah look I I think you
14:15could make the case as we've talked about before that maybe the Orioles in
14:19in the fans minds didn't do enough at the trade deadline they just added
14:22Eflin and Trevor Rogers Rogers has been completely ineffective and now Eflin
14:27hurts so I guess they have to hope that he could come back at some point I don't
14:31know how serious this injury is so yeah I mean obviously it's concerning Ben but
14:34this is the model for the Orioles right now you know it's gonna be rare for them
14:40to kind of go all in the closest they've come in the last few years is getting
14:43Corbin Burns and probably he's gonna be gone at the end of the season so
14:46Baltimore is certainly playing to get in what I'm now calling the postseason
14:50tournament for Major League Baseball and yeah look I think the American League is
14:55kind of wide open at this point that's a major injury for a guy that you know in
14:59the postseason is gonna throw six innings three earned runs no walks four
15:03strikeouts and then the bullpens decide the game it's kind of who Eflin is yeah
15:08take a look here too like we expect big things out of the Baltimore Orioles they
15:12don't really fly under the radar which brings up the next team the Milwaukee
15:14Brewers oh no Kristin Yelich down for the season with a back injury right this
15:18baseball team off Craig winners of six straight games 73 wins on the season
15:22before he can blink now 11 and a half game lead over the Chicago Cubs in 12
15:27games over the Cardinals this team is built for postseason baseball Craig's it
15:31feels like every day it's two to one three to two four to three victories
15:34here what can we anticipate from the Milwaukee Brewers and could they be in
15:37contention to do some damage here in the NL yeah look I think it is possible you
15:43know I would not have them as the favorites but I think this is probably
15:46Donnie one of the teams in baseball that has been doubted from the beginning of
15:51the season right up until now and that becomes a dangerous team at some point
15:55because they're like having the chip on their shoulder type team no one believes
15:58in us but if you go back to May June we were talking about the Brewers well
16:03eventually someone's gonna catch them and pass them it'll be the Reds it'll be
16:06the Cubs maybe the Pirates none of them did impressive season I mean I'm gonna
16:10be 30 games over 500 at the end of the year it just goes to show you I mean
16:15guys think about this for a second the president of baseball operations David
16:19Stearns he left he left to go to the Mets their manager Craig counsel the
16:24highest paid manager the history of baseball goes to the Cubs and they're
16:27just as good if not better without them that just tells you the hierarchy and
16:31everything going on in player development drafting etc in that
16:34organization it's second to none in the National League they've done a great job
16:37again the brew crew right now 21 games above 573 and 52 everybody else in the
16:46National League Central two games below 500 or worse the 11 and a half game
16:51advantage for Milwaukee so strong the odds makers at FanDuel said hey the
16:55division is done they have taken the odds off the board the first division of
16:59the six around the bigs to have the odds off the board at this stage of the MLB
17:05season five game lead now for the Houston Astros atop the American League
17:09West and could it grow larger today with the return of Justin Verlander for the
17:15Astros his first start since June 9th the veteran righty back on the bump for
17:21Houston he has made 10 starts this year there you see the numbers Craig what
17:26should we expect out of Justin Verlander at this stages of his career at this
17:32stage of the season for the Astros yeah this is very similar to another guy who
17:39played for Houston who would come in middle of the season finish off not in
17:45the Hall of Fame but should be and that's Roger Clemens this is a very
17:48similar situation what they're hoping for is by the end of September Verlander
17:54can give them six innings of two-run ball with five or six strikeouts and
17:59turn it over to the bullpen you know Verlander has what another year or two
18:03left probably the injuries have creeped in I see no reason why he can't do it
18:08they've been overly cautious with him but very similar to Kershaw in LA these
18:12veteran pitchers that's all they're asking for just get us in the postseason
18:15pitch game two or game three and then we'll take our chances with the pen two
18:21teams fighting for wild-card positioning here the Minnesota Twins and the San
18:24Diego Padres gonna play at 640 Eastern which means an afternoon set out on the
18:28west coast at 340 p.m. slight favorite towards San Diego eight and a half is
18:31the total it's been an entertaining series so far who's gonna stay in this
18:35series which means San Diego staying hot or Minnesota give me one of these
18:39victories out here yeah I love watching Matt Waldron pitch for San Diego because
18:45he's a knuckleballer and you know I still for the life of me can't figure
18:48out why at the youth age no one is teaching the knuckleball it just feels
18:53like if you if you're little and you can't throw a hundred why not try that
18:57to see if you can succeed on the flip side Woods Richardson the pitcher for
19:01the Twins has been super effective a big surprise the season but guys his
19:04numbers are a lot better in Minneapolis than they are away from home so I'll
19:08lean toward the Padres today in a close game the Padres looking for a sweep over
19:14the Twins San Diego has won 13 of its last 16 best records since the all-star
19:18break for the pods 22 and 6 Craig Mish as always thank you for being here on
19:24this Wednesday on the early line we'll see in about 40 minutes on Newswire here
19:29on sports just like Tuesday it's a full Wednesday slate around Major League
19:33Baseball a sampling of afternoon games but only really for in their local time
19:38zones but we start with game number two up in the Bronx a game that will impact
19:44the American League East and American League standings overall the Yankees and
19:49the Guardians it was a long game last night four hours and five minutes the
19:54longest of 2024 in MLB the Guardians victorious 9 to 5 in 12 innings they
20:01won outright as an underdog they're a pretty hefty underdog once again today
20:05against Esther Cortez and the Bombers eight and a half is the total today up
20:10in the Bronx minus 184 now on the money line for the New York Yankees what do
20:16you like here in game number two probably the better pedigree pitcher I
20:20guess you could say on the Mountiers for the Yankees with Nestor Cortez this last
20:2330 days don't really show up as all that glamorous and I so power number of
20:26180 which is slightly elevated against in a 337 weighted on base percentage
20:30once again slightly elevated but if we do take a look at Nestor Cortez at home
20:34this year in Yankee Stadium 73 and two-thirds innings pitch and ERA right
20:39around three and a very manageable X FIP number in that 3.9 range so he should be
20:43able to keep you in this ballgame now you do have some hitters out there that
20:46have really been focused on left-handed pitching for the Cleveland Guardians
20:50that's obviously Jose Ramirez and take a look at David Frye resurfacing once
20:54again but look at Ramirez he's a switch hitter so we batted on the right side
20:57his last 30 at bats against left-handed pitching an ISO of 517 so somebody that
21:02you might want to put on that radar to maybe hit a home run cooler temperature
21:06still in the Bronx again today in the 60s and that same right field wind
21:09about seven or eight mile an hour going out at this point but if we do look at
21:12the other side Joey Cantillo not very much you know business here in Major
21:16League Baseball only 58 batters that he's faced over the past 30 days but
21:20look at his numbers ISO against 308 waited on base percentage against 411
21:25and if you just take a look at those left-handed batters like Juan Soto went
21:28deep yesterday a 500 ISO against now granted only 16 batters he's faced from
21:33lefties but you look at the first three batters in the lineup against
21:36left-handed pitching for the Yankees over the past month that's Torres Soto
21:39and judge all high ISO power numbers and waited on base percentages the Yankees
21:43should be a favorite today against the Cleveland Guardians and they should
21:47handle their business the total went over yesterday because of extra innings
21:52only six runs in regulation eight and a half is that number today low scoring
21:57game and a pitchers duel yesterday in the start of the midweek set out in
22:01Atlanta between the Braves and the Phillies Reinaldo Lopez got the better
22:06of Zach Wheeler and the Phil's three to one the final Atlanta victorious in the
22:10opening game game number two another pitchers duel is expected a tight
22:15expected minus 108 on both sides as of this moment total has dropped down to
22:22seven and a half as well it is a pick'em currently on the fan duel sports book
22:26so DRS tell us who wins this game in Atlanta I mean honestly again it should
22:31be the Phillies Max Fried who's had a decent season but really not over the
22:34past month month and a half that era approaching five and a half but you're
22:38looking at that Philadelphia Phillies lineup and saying what gives but let's
22:41just start with Aaron Noah on the mound he's a decent pitcher we know that a one
22:45to punch that if the Phillies get to the playoffs which we're anticipating along
22:48with Zach Wheeler one of the best in baseball he does struggle a bit with
22:51left-handed batters but that's not even what the focus I want here remove
22:54Marcelo Zuna and Matt Olsen's name from that Braves lineup it's Michael Harris
22:59Ramon Laureano Sean Murphy Jared Kelenic Orlando Arcea Gio Urshela and Whit
23:04Merrifield it's basically a cast off of characters from other baseball teams
23:08that just couldn't make it and they just converged on Atlanta because of all of
23:11the injuries now they won yesterday they got a great pitching performance
23:14out of Lopez Zach Wheeler was fine but if you are the Phillies if you can just
23:18put up four runs tonight you should be able to win this game going away and you
23:23say oh that should be easier that let's go one last night and we're completely
23:26trash at the plate but you have to stick with the statistics to me the better
23:31pitcher on the mound is Aaron Nolan the better lineup by a wide margin is the
23:35Philadelphia Phillies and look at that price point it is cheap it was cheap
23:38yesterday it's there for a reason the Phillies understand I've been
23:42struggling but you're just looking at the pitching matchup and the lineups per
23:45se it should be a Phillies win the Phil's entered this set having won four
23:52of their last five now just eight and nine in the month of August Atlanta nine
23:56and nine in this month they have won six of their last eight including three
24:01victories in a row the Phillies still maintain a six-game advantage in the
24:05National League East but this more important for Atlanta for holding on to
24:09that third and final National League wild-card spot a two and a half game
24:13lead over the New York Mets the Dodgers looking for a sweep late night in Los
24:18Angeles against the Seattle Mariners we showed you the odds earlier they are
24:22only growing stronger now minus 180 the Dodgers a home money line favorite
24:27against Logan Gilbert and Seattle total at seven and a half it's Jack Flaherty
24:32making his fourth start in a Dodgers uniform the Dodgers have won two of the
24:36three Flaherty has earned two wins in his three outings for LA but he's given
24:41up seven earned runs in his last two starts if we're just taking a look at
24:44those analytical numbers over the past 60 days on the card today got 25
24:48pitchers minimum of 20 innings pitched over those 60 days number two and number
24:52three on the card they're pitching in this game going against each other
24:55that's Logan Gilbert and Jack Flaherty the XFIP numbers 3.07 for Gilbert
24:59Flaherty at a 3.20 so we're expecting them to keep it down but really the
25:03focus isn't every day I look and it's like wow the Mariners have another solid
25:07pitching prospect on the mound today solid veteran guy solid young guy it
25:10doesn't matter they just can't hit their way right now out of a paper bag and
25:14sometimes they'll bust out six or seven runs and next three to four games won't
25:18cross the three threshold if you're gonna tell me today once again I'm
25:21getting that same Mariners offense that we expect to see on a day-to-day basis
25:25where it's like oh hopefully we can put together three or four home runs to
25:28score runs I don't understand that's gonna happen
25:31Flaherty's a quality pitcher in a pitcher's ballpark against a team that
25:34struggles to hits don't you automatically just go to the Dodgers at
25:37this point as we had like Mark Zinnow on a little bit earlier just the trust
25:40level and I understand you're not supposed to do this as a handicapper but
25:44boy oh boy if you just say let me just keep trusting the numbers and go back to
25:47the well with the Mariners against a solid pitcher it hasn't worked out in
25:49their favor and I don't think it does again tonight
25:52Seattle's are 17 and 24 when booked as an underdog this year you would think
25:57it's a right price for an all-star on the bump for Seattle in Logan Gilbert
26:02against a guy in Jack Flaherty who's been mediocre at least in his three
26:07starts in Los Angeles but there's a reason the price is the price as of this
26:13moment the Dodgers looking for a sweep they've won eight of their last 11 San
26:17Diego looking for a sweep at home over the twins 340 p.m. Pacific Time so a
26:23little bit of afternoon baseball out there in Southern California in the
26:26third and final game between the Padres and the Twins today San Diego a slight
26:31home favorite minus 126 over understands at eight and a half will San Diego sweep
26:37Minnesota this afternoon I'm taking them again I am the one thing that Matt
26:41Waldron does struggle a little bit with it's a left-handed batter so he's gonna
26:44get a pretty good look at a couple quality guys Castro Larnach Walner
26:48Kepler Julian look to be lefties in the lineup as we anticipate today and this
26:52game you might be dealing with a little bit of the shadows out there in San
26:54Diego by the end of this game but I don't think that matters I look at that
26:57price point and say why wouldn't you just be taking San Diego at this point
27:00if we're taking a look at woods Richardson on the road this season out
27:03out of Minnesota which is a true pitchers ballpark now grantee said well
27:07Donnie he's going to San Diego which also is a pitchers ballpark not the same
27:10batting eye that you look at from a batter's perspective and the same thing
27:13with pitchers here sometimes you're just more comfortable at home but on the road
27:1552 and two-thirds innings pitching era 4.27 but a higher x-fifth number of 4.75
27:22to me the Padres just continue to look and stay hot there at home today I'll go
27:26with the pods San Diego is 113 of its last 16 looking for the sweep over the
27:32twins the best mark since the all-star break 22 and 6 for the Padres a
27:39substantial advantage for that top nationally wildcard spot trying to catch
27:43the Dodgers but LA knows they need to keep pace with San Diego and the Arizona
27:48Diamondbacks not all that far behind a three-game lead for LA in the National
27:53League West a rubber match today at Citi Field between the Mets and the Orioles
27:57one minute left in this segment DRS so if you have more to say we can hit it
28:01on the other side but the Amazons a home favorite once again in the series
28:05finale at Citi against the Baltimore Orioles shaman I against the start for
28:10the Mets total eight and a half who takes the rubber match who wins the set
28:14probably gonna be the New York Mets like Cole Irvin I think is pitched in three
28:18three and a half weeks at this point and wasn't very good it's pretty amazing
28:20where Baltimore is a good team and every day on the mound it seems like to getting
28:24worse and worse pitching is like okay you got Corbin on the mound and then the
28:28next four to five days it's like we just hope we can actually be competitive I
28:31think that low price here which opened as a slight favorite towards Baltimore
28:35now over to the Mets make some sense the Mets should win this game Dean Kramer
28:39was really good yesterday six innings of work only allowing a single earned run
28:44before the Mets made it interesting against Baltimore's bullpen that's the
28:48rubber match and there's more MLB breakdowns up next live right here on
28:52the early line on SportsGrid all around this Wednesday slate in Major League
28:56Baseball all three of the incredibly hot teams that keep winning games in the
29:00National League West that's the Dodgers the Padres and the
29:04Diamondbacks looking for a midweek series sweep today the Arizona
29:08Diamondbacks take on the Miami Marlins they're a road favorite in South Florida
29:12at minus 164 against the fish the Diamondbacks were swept over the
29:18weekend in Tampa will they sweep Miami today yeah let's go over some numbers in
29:23this game because this is one that you want to focus on 640 p.m. make sure you're
29:27in front of your TV why because Roderick Munoz is on the mound for the Marlins if
29:31we just take a look at in totality his past 60 days he has what 42 and a third
29:37innings pitched here let me just make sure yep that's correct
29:39his ERA Ben 5.95 his exit number 5.48 you're loving this already but now you
29:46say to yourself like well Donnie it might be because he gets hammered on the
29:49road like he's usually pitching in that absolute cavern aircraft carrier which
29:53is so hard to hit home runs in down in South Beach now you take a look at his
29:56home statistics this season bet 36 and two-thirds innings pitched a worse ERA
30:02of 6.63 and an exit number of close to 5.6 here so it doesn't matter he's
30:08pitching one of the best pitching ballparks in America and can't get
30:11anybody out now comes to town here against them once again the Arizona
30:14Diamondbacks take away Kevin Newman who's due to bat ninth today who has a
30:18low ISO power number and a low weighted on base percentage if we just take a
30:22look at the weighted on base percentages here of right-handed pitching going up
30:27against the Diamondbacks 412 386 539 478 358 479 426 and 497 we should be having
30:37a lot of fun and betting good money on RBI props basic props and the Arizona
30:42Diamondbacks to absolutely wreck Rotary Munoz tonight yeah I could see it
30:48happening that's a lot of runs potentially being scored for Arizona
30:53total only eight and a half today in Miami another day baseball game another
30:58NLS team looking for a series sweep that should always be the equation if you are
31:04playing the Chicago White Sox and that's the story for the Giants Logan
31:08Webb on the bump San Francisco greater than a $2.00 favorite minus 230 that
31:12updated number against the White Sox Garrett crochet does start on the other
31:16side it's why the total is seven but San Francisco trying to stay in the NL
31:21wild-card chase three and a half games back of Atlanta will it be a series
31:25sweep over Chicago I love Logan Webb and he just take a look at his past 60 days
31:30exit number he's third on the card at a 25 you know you're gonna get a very good
31:33performance out of him but having said that do you know he's number one on the
31:36analytical card today it's Garrett crochet so you have the two top two but
31:41let's just say one and four out of the top five going head-to-head in a true
31:46pitchers ballpark today but also the analytical number 2.66 XFIP over the
31:50past 60 days for crochet that's unbelievably good is he all right Ben
31:54almost five and a half it like doesn't even compute so let's just take a look
31:57at some splits here and say what does crochet do on the road is he better at
32:00home how about on the road if the card was today where everybody was pitching
32:04on the road he's number two out of a card of 27 with an exit number of three
32:08point three zero so I look at that number and I figure that Webb is
32:11probably like I love going against the Chicago White Sox team in a pitchers
32:15ballpark he should dominate but crochet also should be just fine am I looking to
32:19lay that big of number for San Francisco not necessarily even though I do think
32:23they win this ballgame but probably that's seven I don't know how we get the
32:26eight runs two very good analytical pitchers here in a going against
32:29lineups that aren't that great in a pitchers ballpark sounds like an under
32:33to me yeah last night by the bay it was a 4-1 victory for the Giants over the
32:39White Sox limited scoring in that game maybe the case in the third and final
32:44Justin Verlander makes his return for Houston today he has not pitched since
32:49June 9th over two months the veteran righty is back on the mound the Astros a
32:55favorite at home day baseball in H town minus 144 that updated number this is
33:02the rubber match Houston won game one by a single run walking it off the Red
33:07Sox victorious yesterday Jaren Durant a perfect 4-4 at the dish and the
33:11game-winning solo home run in the top of the eighth inning what can we expect out
33:17of Justin Verlander how does it affect your handicap for the rubber match in
33:21Houston it's a tough handicap and maybe just a handicap we've been using here in
33:25Houston been for the past couple nights you know quality pitchers might get to
33:29the mound but these lineups really are locking in and looking good so you got
33:33back-to-back overs and maybe we get that again because if we focus just on Cooper
33:37Criswell for the Boston Red Sox and we take a look at his road starts this
33:40season he's got 36 innings pitched on the road been a 5.25 era and an expert
33:46that's 4.63 that's high you're going up against a lineup but even if we move
33:49Jose Altuve over the past 30 days doesn't have very good numbers against
33:53right-handed pitching which is kind of crazy but Bregman, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena,
33:57Singleton and Caratini all elevated numbers they should hit they should be
34:01able to put up runs and from a Verlander perspective let's just say he is very
34:05good does that mean bend his leashes 115 pitches like back in the day no he might
34:10probably be going four to five innings max which will leave it open to that
34:13bullpen to try to get after him and also as we take a look at that Boston Red
34:17Sox lineup we love it as well they've been crushing right-handed pitching over
34:20the past month here Durant, Abreu, Devers, O'Neal and Yoshida all with heavy
34:24ISO power numbers and weighted on base percentages here so for my money instead
34:29of just saying like well I think Verlander can be back to form or I think
34:32Criswell is gonna be a bad pitcher I do think we get another over in this game
34:36afternoon game not it's not a pitchers ballpark to say the least I think we get
34:40some runs in this one we'll keep with that same MO of the past two games both
34:45of the first two would have been over this eight and a half nine runs scored
34:48five to four Houston winning game one six to five yesterday for Boston
34:52Jaron Durant was great in the solo home run Tristan Kossis also pretty good the
34:57young first baseman for Boston three RBIs yesterday two for three at the dish
35:03and did hit a home run of his own some other spots around Major League
35:08Baseball DRS will really reach at the time of the year where some games have
35:12importance others they're already looking forward to next season if the
35:17Royals can continue to hold on they're a hefty favorite at home today in KC
35:22against the Angels lost yesterday to the Halos the Angels a hefty road underdog
35:27the Brewers have an 11 and a half game lead over the Cubs the Cubbies five and
35:31a half games back of the NL wildcard chase at this moment they're a home
35:35favorite today against the Tigers with Jamison Tyone on the bump yeah by the
35:40way getting back to that Kansas City LA game like Michael Lorenzen's on the mound
35:43by the way if you would ask me non like X fit minus numbers just how the
35:46pitchers doing Lorenzen's actually the worst on the card but having said that
35:49he's being countered by Johnny Cueto I think you know in no way 81 Cueto made
35:54his appearance again Cueto is back in Major League Baseball good luck with
35:58keeping that game under boy I believe this is his first start of 2024 for the
36:0638 year old Johnny Cueto DRS enjoy the money line we'll see you
36:10tomorrow here on the early line it continues next