MLB Best Bets for Thursday's Slate | Guardians vs Orioles & More
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00:00A significant series starting on this Thursday in Cleveland.
00:07There's only five games on this Thursday around MLB.
00:11Maybe the bigs giving way to the Hall of Fame game tonight in
00:14Canton, Ohio between the Bears and the Texans, but
00:18nonetheless a significant set gets started on this Thursday
00:23in the land. It's the two top teams in the American League
00:26Cleveland 65 and 42 now the best win percentage in Major League
00:30Baseball and thus of course the American League.
00:33They have a four game advantage over the Baltimore Orioles
00:36who are 65 and 44 could this series matter at the end of
00:42the year for what ultimately determines who gets the number
00:45one overall seed in the American League playoff bracket the
00:48Guardians a very slight home favorite minus 110 for this
00:52series opener minus 106 on the other side for Baltimore.
00:56Those odds were an even pick them.
00:58This virtually a pick them total nine and a half who wins
01:02the first game today in Cleveland last 60 days been let's
01:06take a look at the pictures.
01:06And again, there's only five games on the card.
01:08Nine pitchers are qualified with least 20 innings pitch.
01:11The worst picture on the card number nine.
01:12It's Trevor Rogers not terrible statistics though in XFIT
01:16minus number of a 118 in ERA.
01:18That's not too bad 3.48, but it does have a high exit number
01:21at 4.77 and as I said that oh, look, we're going to take
01:24the Cleveland Guardians right off the bat.
01:26Ben not necessarily take a look at Trevor Roberts or excuse
01:29me, Trevor Rogers very good against lefties a little bit
01:32shaky against righties, but the Guardians lineup that doesn't
01:36hit all that well against left-handed pitching because
01:38you take a look at the last 30 days Steven Kwan's a lefty.
01:41He's done very well against left-handed pitching
01:43understandably one of the better hitters in Major League
01:45baseball Jose Ramirez 462 ISO power number to weighted on
01:49base percentage of 526 over his last 30 days against left-handed
01:54pitching even Lane Thomas the new acquisition.
01:56He's got a high weighted on base percentage against left-handed
01:58pitchers outside of that.
02:00Nobody is hitting there, which means Fry Naylor Martinez
02:03Jimenez Freeman and Rocio expected to be in the lineup today.
02:06So that could be an addition here where you're looking for
02:08Trevor Roberts to step into a role that he fits right away
02:11against a quality team because they don't hit lefties all
02:13that. Well go over to Ben Lively average pitcher.
02:15You take a look at his numbers a 104 XFIT minus an ERA under
02:19four and an XFIT number of 4.31 over the past 60 days.
02:22However, I just told you Cleveland struggling with left-handed
02:26pitching the Baltimore Orioles been not struggling at all
02:29against right-handed pitching you take a look at Couser Henderson
02:32Santander O'Hern Mullins and Urias here all elevated weighted
02:37on base percentages here that can get after it.
02:39So for my money, even if I don't like the picture on the
02:41mound for Baltimore, I think it's a very good matchup for
02:44the pitcher for Baltimore and Rogers.
02:46I'll go ahead and take the Baltimore Orioles in this game.
02:48I just think the matchup could be in their favor today.
02:51Trevor Rogers, of course making his debut for the Orioles.
02:55He was acquired on deadline day from Miami Baltimore's one
02:59two straight four of its last six Cleveland has won three
03:03straight and six of its last eight.
03:05The Guardians only played a short two game set in the
03:08midweek had yesterday off because I believe a rain out
03:12they were taking on the Tigers.
03:14They won both of those games Detroit at home hosting the
03:18Royals Kansas City doing what you would expect sweeping
03:22the White Sox yesterday with a 10-3 win another divisional
03:27duel for both Casey and Detroit were the Royals a hefty
03:30road favorite in the Motor City.
03:33What's the play today in Detroit?
03:35And the play is simple here.
03:36The Royals should win this game.
03:37We'll go to the pitching matchups in just a second head
03:39to head.
03:40But if you take a look at Montero 54 batters that he's
03:42faced over the past 30 days as right-handed batters 340 ISO
03:46423 weighted on base percentage.
03:48He's faced a total of 71 right-handed batters on the season
03:51hasn't pitched all that much.
03:52That's a 369 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 443.
03:56How does that match up against that Royals lineup particularly
03:58the number two guy Bobby Witt 342 ISO 565 weighted on base
04:04percentage and a K rate of around 10% over this 80 at bats
04:08against right-handed pitching.
04:09He should be able to do damage today.
04:11But also you take a look at the pitching matchups here, Kansas
04:13City clearly the better pitch on the mound.
04:15That's Seth Lugo last 60 days of Major League Baseball.
04:18How about an 84 XFIT minus an ERA of 3.80 and a very manageable
04:22XFIT number of 3.48.
04:24I know it's expensive.
04:25It's on the road, but we just take a look at matchups overall.
04:28It makes sense to go with Kansas City and I'm not even down
04:31playing that Detroit lineup, which has been getting better
04:33over the past couple weeks, but a better pitcher and a couple
04:36of guys that can crush right-handed pitching that stacks up
04:38for a Kansas City Royals dubbed today for me.
04:41Yes, it absolutely does 10 runs scored yesterday on the south
04:45side against the White Sox and Bobby Witt Jr.
04:47Did not have an RBI but was two for three at the dish drew
04:51two walks scored three runs.
04:53Our guy Vinny P the pass watch pass Quintino three ribbies
04:57yesterday Kansas City now at 60 wins.
05:00I feel great.
05:01Thanks to Craig Mish about the over of my preseason win total
05:05bet on KC at 73 and a half 60 wins for the Royals this year
05:10Donnie.
05:10They only won 56 games all of last year.
05:14We talked about the ace affair underway today at Wrigley
05:17show to Iminaga gets the start for Chicago Sonny Gray on
05:21the other side for st.
05:22Louis.
05:23It's a virtual pick them inside the friendly confines and
05:26this divisional duel.
05:27What's the play?
05:29Some of you might be saying that Sonny Gray could be getting
05:31a little bit unlucky because theoretically number one on
05:33the court over the past 60 days out of those nine pitchers
05:35today, Ben that's Sonny Gray an exfit minus number of 70
05:39and era that's close to five but an exfit number of 2.82.
05:43Now, let's go back to June 29th year for Sonny Gray four
05:46and a third innings pitch six runs five innings pitch five
05:50runs against the Nationals a week later versus the Cubs
05:52seven innings pitch three earned runs.
05:53That's very good.
05:54But then bounces right back up the Braves seven innings pitch
05:57which you like five earned runs.
05:59You don't last start against the Nationals five innings pitch
06:01five earned runs leaking oil for Sonny Gray.
06:05So if we're just being simple in this you say Donnie, don't
06:07you just test those analytical numbers?
06:09Sometimes you have to line up equally when you're looking
06:11at both sides because Sonny Gray even though he has those
06:14great exfit numbers.
06:16You take a look at his true numbers.
06:17Iso power numbers against his last 105 batters combined
06:20237 way too elevated for me.
06:22Waited on base percentage.
06:23You want that number as a pitcher around 320 or less.
06:26He's sitting at 391.
06:28Give me Imanaga.
06:29Give me that slight price at home.
06:30I'll take the Cubs here due to a pitcher that should be
06:33pitching much better than he is.
06:34We're just not getting the results out of Sonny Gray.
06:37Of course show to Imanaga in his first year in MLB came on
06:41like a barnstormer, but then started to struggle 7 earned
06:44runs given up in his final start in May and the five starts
06:47he made in June 17 total earned runs allowed but in July 4
06:52starts only 7 earned runs allowed.
06:55He is 8 and 2 this year with a 295 ERA DRS before you go
07:01and host the Moneyline.
07:02What's the Hall of Fame game best bet?
07:04Kickoff return for a touchdown, which you cannot bet.
07:07So sit back and relax.
07:08Enjoy that game and just watch.
07:10Take those notes people.
07:11Take the notes.
07:13If we see a kickoff return TD, I think that leads us to an
07:16over out Donnie right side.
07:18Have fun on the Moneyline.
07:20Talk to you tomorrow on the early line.
07:22More TEL next.