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00:00 >> Live right here on this Thursday, a shorter slate around Major League Baseball, but still
00:08 a ton of marquee matchups to break down. It is the Daily Bases with our guy Craig Misch,
00:13 our MLB insider across the Sports Grid Network, the host of Newswire starting at 11 a.m. Eastern
00:19 time each and every day. Craig Misch, the call did not happen yesterday for the second
00:23 game of two in Detroit. I thought we were going off speed for Paul Skeens. Instead,
00:28 I lost out on that wager. >> Sorry, sorry. You know, those $5 bets,
00:34 Ben, you know, in the end, you know, they really come back to bite you.
00:37 >> They get you. >> They do.
00:38 >> Another show, you got to work on Sunday night at Sports Grid on the overnight shift.
00:43 You know, I mean, look, you'll make it up. It'll be okay.
00:46 >> Okay, good. Thank you for telling me that. I will work extra. I will make it up, and
00:51 maybe I'll send some your way for the Royals pick that still looks fantastic. So, Craig,
00:56 I got a couple of days. >> I gave you two. The Royals?
01:01 >> I know the Angels. >> Can you not bet the Angels?
01:03 >> He's not grateful. >> No, I bet the Angels, Craig. I'm off to
01:06 a great start with both. The Angels are fantastic, 21 and 34, under 72 and a half, but the Royals
01:11 are on such a strong pace, already at 35 wins. So, I just feel so great about that one.
01:17 >> The Angels are 13 games under 500. We haven't hit junior. What do you think that's going
01:22 to look like after the trade deadline? Move everybody, Ben. They're going to lose 100
01:26 also. >> For sure. I can't wait for when Mike Trout
01:29 is traded to Philadelphia, and we talk about it here, and we say how we already had that
01:34 breaking news. Yeah, do the eyes. But, Craig, I mean, we celebrate KC. They're at 35 wins
01:39 yesterday, snapping a small skid against the Twins. It took them until August 3rd last
01:44 year to win 35 games. So, that's why I start with Kansas City. All right, let's go to Milwaukee
01:50 for today's action. On this Thursday, yesterday, the worst MLB start in his short career for
01:56 Shota Iminaga, and the Brewers won 10-6 over the Cubs. Milwaukee has won two of the three
02:02 in this four-game set, looking for the series win today against Chicago. The Brewers a slight
02:08 favorite to get that done. What happens in Milwaukee on this Thursday afternoon?
02:13 >> Yeah, so, this is a toss-up game, as you can see with the line. Basically, a pick 'em
02:19 type game. So, here would be my advice on how to play this game. So, these two teams
02:25 rolled through their starting pitchers and relief pitchers in game one. Milwaukee really
02:30 used a lot of their guys' game two in terms of bullpens. The Cubs not as much. They brought
02:35 Hendricks in to finish it off yesterday. So, the reason why I'm bringing this up is because
02:40 you have two pitchers today between Tyon and Colin Ray. These are five-inning guys. Maybe
02:45 Tyon goes sixth. But generally speaking, these guys are going to be out after the fifth.
02:50 So, what I would do is I would do nothing, and then come the second, third inning live
02:55 on this game, I think that if it's close or the Cubs have a lead, I would play the Cubs
03:02 because I don't think the Brewers are going to be at full strength in terms of their arsenal
03:06 bringing in guys early and late. I'm looking at their bullpen usage. It's been a lot. They
03:11 brought in several guys two days in a row. A lot two out of the last three days. I don't
03:17 know how they're going to get through this one, Milwaukee. They may have to stick Ray
03:20 in there for a long time. And you know what that means is that, look, Colin Ray is okay.
03:25 He's not great, which could mean if he gets into the sixth, third time through, could
03:29 get beat up a little bit. So, I wouldn't necessarily play the Cubs immediately. But if I saw that
03:35 the game was close or tight, I would bank on the Cubs doing a better job closing this
03:39 game out than Milwaukee today.
03:42 And now Central odds here to win it. Very good division so far. The Brewers are the
03:45 favorite at a minus 110 price. The Chicago Cubs in second right now on the Fandula Sportsbook
03:50 at plus 230 have fallen off a little bit, but here come the St. Louis Cardinals at a
03:54 plus 450 price playing much better baseball. Is this a Brewers division for you, Craig?
04:00 Or is there a chance that we're taking a look at, hey, maybe the Cardinals actually do add
04:04 something here and can contend?
04:06 Yeah, I'm surprised. I mean, I guess every year you have to expect the Cardinals are
04:10 going to get hot at some point. And that time is right now. Whether or not they can sustain
04:14 it still remains to be seen. I think it is a three-team race. Donnie Connick, too close
04:18 to call for me at this point. I think it's going to come down to which team decides to
04:22 get the most aggressive here coming up in the next couple of months. I would not have
04:26 projected Milwaukee to be in this spot. They've done a fantastic job. Their manager, Pat Murphy,
04:30 has done a great job, too. So, you know, this is one that I think is kind of impossible
04:34 to know what will happen in the end. But I think the team that gets the most aggressive
04:38 is the team that ends up winning.
04:40 You know, usually these teams, what they do is come the trade deadline, Donnie, they add
04:44 bullpen pieces. The Cubs need a ninth inning guy. Brewers, I believe, get Devin Williams
04:48 at some point back. So that'll be really big for them. They've had a hard time figuring
04:51 out who that guy is going to be. Cardinals, you know, they tend to get pseudo aggressive
04:57 every deadline. But I just don't know. If they look at their team right now, I think
05:00 no matter how you construct the Cardinals, I don't think they're a World Series team.
05:04 So I just don't know what they would do. So I probably still lean Cubs or Brewers at this
05:08 point.
05:10 The Redbirds finished in the bottom of this division a year ago, despite being preseason
05:14 favorites and were once again the preseason favorites entering 2024 MLB season to win
05:20 the National League Central. There were nine games below 515 and 24 on May 11th. From that
05:26 point, St. Louis has won 12 of its past 15 games. The Atlanta Braves nearly a $2 home
05:32 favorite today. My guy, Spencer Schwellenbach, the Big Ten Player of the Year in baseball
05:38 in 2021 from Nebraska, not his greatest MLB debut yesterday as the Nats win 7-2. Can the
05:45 Braves return the favor on this Thursday?
05:48 Yeah, I mean, look, at minus 220, I mean, you would expect the Braves to bounce back
05:52 and I probably would expect that today. Better starting pitcher, of course. Washington got
05:57 their win yesterday. But the best thing to do with a play like this is probably find
06:01 another play to pair up with it, Ben, because again, you're not going to lay minus 220.
06:05 And as I've said a million times here, when I'm laying a run and a half, it's the road
06:10 team. It's not the home team. You get that extra inning for hitting.
06:14 Yeah, if we are taking a look at the Atlanta Braves seasonal odds here, the NL East at
06:18 a plus 165, the NL Pennant at a 4-1 price in the World Series and an 8-1 price, certainly
06:23 drastically different than what we anticipated to start the season. Are there any buy-ins
06:27 here for you, Craig, on the Braves and chances that, yeah, they could possibly do some damage
06:32 even without those two superstars out of the lineup?
06:35 Yeah, look, they did this without Ronald Acuna Jr. and won the World Series by getting Jorge
06:40 Soler from, I think it was Kansas City at the time, and then getting Adam Duvall from
06:46 Miami. Those guys helped lead them and won the World Series. So I still think that there's
06:50 certainly a chance to do it. I just think that they're going to be patient and wait
06:54 to see where they're at at the trade deadline, and then we'll go from there.
06:58 Craig, quick final question. Anybody picking up Jorge Lopez today after he was ejected
07:03 yesterday by the Mets?
07:05 You know, I'm glad you asked me that question. Jorge Lopez is such a nice guy, and it is
07:09 so sad. He played with the Marlins last year. I am so sad to see this happening to him.
07:13 I understand his words are his words, his actions are his actions, but I feel really
07:18 bad for the guy. He's a really good guy.
07:21 Appreciate it, Craig. More of the early lineup next.
07:24 Can the New York Mets get a win today? Can the Arizona Diamondbacks look like the pennant
07:29 winners in the National League from a year ago? Your guess is as good as ours. Zach Gallin
07:35 on the bump today for Arizona up in city field. The Mets swept in three games by the Dodgers
07:41 over two days. Arizona, a two-game set in the World Series rematch in Arlington against
07:47 the Rangers. Also swept total today at seven. The D-backs a road favorite up in Queens.
07:53 Oh, at minus 120. You know what I just realized? We messed up. We didn't show the picture of
08:00 Kevin near his hometown.
08:02 Yeah, he's been sleeping. Exactly. And it was animated, too. It would have been nice.
08:06 It was animated.
08:07 Could have slid in there for an Emmy Award, Best Graphics, 2024, in use of a baseball
08:14 doing. What are we doing? A whole baseball segment both on us and the guys.
08:21 Could we run an animated? Could we run an animated graphic? Is it possible? Live on
08:26 the air? Where would it go in? Between us? They would just take us off the screen.
08:30 I think it's just like a video element. I think it's like a video element. We keep asking
08:33 for it, but we haven't even seen it in preview here. So I don't even know if we have it.
08:38 Yeah.
08:39 Yeah, but to be honest with us, here's what actually should happen, Ben. When we start
08:43 to tee up like our baseball, like our baseball, like the segments here, the stinger should
08:49 be that picture as our diamond like, you know, plays come out. Don't you think?
08:54 That would be great.
08:55 At least for Dinger Tuesday. At least for Dinger Tuesday from here on out.
08:58 It's got to be a stinger. That has to be a stinger. Yes. The people don't know what we're
09:02 talking about.
09:03 All right, Joe Frizzo.
09:04 When you do see this new stinger, it'll be fantastic.
09:05 Joe Frizzo, our producer. Yeah. You'll understand completely what this joke is.
09:09 Wow.
09:10 Our producer, Joe Frizzo, claimed that he deleted it. Maybe he was just trying to kiss
09:15 up to the guy he used to be the producer for. Okay, we're going to have it later. Maybe
09:19 we'll have a best bet from this game between the New York Bats and the Diamondbacks. Donnie,
09:23 what are your betting thoughts for this matchup today up in Queens?
09:27 Now we're getting that extra bump here from yesterday. A guy being cut to make an example
09:32 out of you're not playing great baseball. You have a closed door team meeting and maybe
09:35 Pete Alonzo will be in the lineup today. That doesn't bode well because Christian Scott
09:39 will be on the mound. We don't have a big backlog here. Only 92 batters faced here in
09:44 2024. He's actually been decent. A 141 ISO and a 290 weighted on base percentage. If
09:49 you combine lefty and righty batters, if you flip it over to the other side, much more
09:52 pedigree on the mound today in Zach Allen. Has he been incredible this year? Not necessarily,
09:57 but he's certainly been good. A 161 ISO and a 280 weighted on base percentage over the
10:02 past 99 batters he's faced against a lineup that we're probably not expecting Pete Alonzo
10:06 to be in. So I think it's pretty easy. Instead of even looking at a side, which I do think
10:11 still the better pitcher resides on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Where are the runs coming from
10:15 today? Only 68 degrees. His first pitch anticipated a wind blowing in at city field. We're probably
10:20 looking under in this game today.
10:22 Total at seven final game of four tonight in Seattle between the Mariners and the Astros.
10:28 The M's have taken each of the first three yesterday, walking it off with an RBI sac
10:33 fly from JP Crawford in the 10th inning. Can Seattle pull off the four game series sweep
10:39 over Houston? I don't know about the pulling off the series sweep because these games have
10:45 been competitive. But the one thing that we are looking at on those price points is not
10:48 the minus 134, the plus 114 you're seeing there on the side. It's that seven and a half
10:52 total. This is a true pitchers ballpark. Spencer Arrighetti isn't a great pitcher by any stretch,
10:56 but he doesn't have disaster statistics here. Even over the past 120 batters over the past
11:01 30 days, a 162 ISO, which is decent, a 345 weighted on base percentage, which is slightly
11:06 elevated but not a great lineup that you're facing from Seattle. If we go to the other
11:10 side, Logan Gilbert is actually been very, very good. Look at his seasonal statistics
11:14 spend 270 batters face your K percentage around 25% a low walk percentage in ISO of 129 and
11:20 a weighted on base percentage of 2 57. This also screens. We're probably looking at an
11:25 under in Seattle today.
11:27 In the first three games, we haven't seen more than six total runs all under this number.
11:32 All three games decided by two runs or less. Both game one and three, just a single run
11:38 in advantage for the Seattle Mariners. Now we go to Minneapolis, also finishing out a
11:43 four game set between divisional foes. It's the Royals taking on the twins yesterday behind
11:48 Seth Lugo, Casey winning outright as an underdog. They're an underdog once again with Brady
11:54 Singer on the bump against Chris Paddock for Minnesota.
11:58 Singer has been sensational this season, Ben, as a right-handed pitcher against right-handed
12:01 batters. How about a 105 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 250 and a K rate of
12:05 around 25%. That's what you like to see, but he does get damaged a little bit by left-handed
12:11 batters. However, not a ton of great left-handed batters in the lineup. But if you are looking
12:15 for RBI chances, that's Max Kepler in the middle of the lineup. And quickly, if we get
12:19 over to Kansas City side, they should be able to take care of Paddock from the right side
12:22 and who's struggled over the past 30 days against right-handed hitters. Bobby Witt Jr.
12:28 could be on your card today with 250 ISO and a 390 weighted on base percentage in the last
12:32 month against right-handed pitchers today.
12:35 Third best price for Bobby Witt Jr. to win that American League MVP.
12:39 (upbeat music)
12:42 [MUSIC]