MLB Best Bets: Yankees-Rays Clash PLUS the rest of today's games
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00:00It is a big day of baseball on this Monday around MLB. 13 games. Normally a full slate
00:10is 15 games. 15 games, two opponents playing in the game. That's all 30 Major League Baseball
00:17clubs. We don't often see 13 on a Monday, but we do today, including some day baseball.
00:24The only game in afternoon hours up in the Bronx. Yankee Stadium. It's the fourth and
00:29final game of this first weekend set following the MLB All-Star break between divisional
00:35foes. The Yankees hosting the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yanks and Garrett Cole great on Friday
00:40night. Victoria 6-1 in the opener. The Rays have won the last two, including yesterday
00:45holding on for a 6-4 win. The Yankees favored at a minus-164 price to split this four-game
00:52set total at eight and a half. Are we going to see Donnie Rightside not only here on the
00:57early line, but ahead of this Yankees game on YES Network later today? Donnie, if so,
01:02what's the play? Yeah, filming early this morning, man, before the sun came up getting
01:07ready because why? A Monday early start up in the Bronx. That's exactly what we need
01:12to get our juices flowing for new week, new money. If we take a look at the pitching matchups
01:15today, Ben, I got 24 pitchers on the card today with a minimum of 20 innings pitched
01:19over the past 60 days. Number 14 and number 15 on this card out of 24, that's Carlos Rodon
01:25and Zach Littell. You take a look at that Yankees lineup to start against right-handed
01:29pitching over the past month. First four guys have been really, really good. That's Rice, Soto,
01:33Judge and Wells. The rest of that lineup outside of Trent Grisham, a lot to be desired. But if
01:38we're taking a look at some of the non-analytical numbers for Zach Littell over the past 30 days,
01:42they've been bad. Iso power numbers against through 86 batters or 162, right around the
01:46average number, but the weighted on base percentage is inflated up to a 342. The one thing you do like
01:52is a decent strikeout guy doesn't walk too many guys. He's going to need that today. 86 degrees
01:56in the Bronx, 11 mile an hour wind blowing out to left field today. Flip it over to the other
02:01side and take a look at Carlos Rodon. Nothing has really gone right for him, Ben, since just
02:05about coming to the New York Yankees. You look at his last 30 days, 86 batters that he's faced,
02:09a 280 iso and a weighted on base percentage, a 411, not necessarily great. Their XFIP minus
02:15numbers are manageable though. That's the 100 mark. Anything below that is good. Anything above
02:20that sort of a little bit of a concern. If we look at both of these guys today, it's a 102 and a 105.
02:25So not that bad, but you have hitting conditions in the Bronx afternoon game today. You're probably
02:30looking at more of an over than a side itself. I do think it's a toss up. I don't think the
02:33Yankees should be that heavily favored today. I think both teams should put up some runs to get
02:38that over and we'll see how it works out. Let's go to an AL Central duel as well. Divisional foes
02:44face off in the land. The Guardians now second best mark in the American league after losing
02:49their opening weekend set following the break to the San Diego Padres. Baltimore has one more win,
02:55a half game advantage over the Guardians. And today the Tigers a favorite on the road at minus
03:02124. Let's start with Detroit victorious in nine of its last 12 games, four consecutive series wins,
03:12a sweep over Cincy, a four game series win over these Guardians, a series victory over the Dodgers.
03:19And then they open up after the break, taking two of three from the Blue Jays. Is this potentially
03:28the final or one of the final appearances for Tarek Scouble in a Tigers uniform? He is on the
03:36road today against the Guardians. We are eight days away from the MLB trade deadline. His name
03:42has been floated. The Tigers now again winning nine of their last 12, only two games below 500.
03:49What do you say, Donnie? Any extra motivation? One last dance in Detroit for Tarek Scouble
03:54on the road today in Cleveland. It's kind of crazy. Like if you're the Detroit Tigers, like why is this
04:00guy's name even on the market at this point? One of the best young pitchers in baseball. So you
04:04figure if you're going through a rebuild, you can do that in two to three years and he still should
04:07be able to be a dominant pitcher in Major League Baseball and something your fans can hold on to.
04:11Well, that's going to be a different point if he does get traded. Certainly how many prospects are
04:15coming back to Detroit? Probably a ton. But if we're just looking at today's game overall, as I
04:20said, there's 24 pitchers on the card today. You know who's number one by a long shot. It's Tarek
04:24Scouble, a 68 XFIP minus an ERA of 2.95 over the past 60 days and an XFIP of 2.81. Damn near
04:31unhittable. Now, here's the interesting part. As you talk about Detroit, it typically used to be like
04:35maybe one or two batters were okay in that lineup and the rest were terrible. It's not the case
04:39anymore. You arguably have close to six batters at above average ISO power numbers over the past 30
04:44days against right-handed pitching. That's what's pulling Detroit out because they're getting good
04:47pitching along with some solid hitting at times. We take a look at Carlos Carrasco. Here's what's
04:52going to be interesting, Ben. Over the past 60 days, an ERA of 4.87, but an XFIP number, XFIP
04:58minus number of 90. You take a look at his XFIP number, a 3.68. Not that bad. So I take a look at
05:04that price because right now, I don't think we're firing on all cylinders at the plate for the
05:09Guardians. I like that lineup. The numbers are decent, but as of late, just haven't been working
05:13in our direction. I don't know how much offense we're going to get on the opposite side either
05:16at this point. So when we're looking at this seven and a half, I think it might be best to go under
05:21the total today. 77 degrees is what they're going to be playing in Cleveland, but wind blowing in
05:25slightly from right field. I think this game stays under the total because I think Carrasco
05:29can step up to the occasion and not get blown away over the first five innings.
05:33Total has dropped to seven. Scooble right now, minus 130 when the American League saw Young
05:39award. One of the things that might hold him back from that being traded to the NL.
05:43Again, Tigers fans should be very, very mad if they make that deal. I hope they do not. A total
05:50of 10 today at altitude in Coors where the Red Sox are coming off a sweep this weekend in LA.
05:56Get their second consecutive National League West opponents. The Red Sox got swept. They did not
06:01sweep the Dodgers. Of course, minus 168 with Tanner Houck on the bump today. Can they rally
06:07today at Coors Field? I think they can rally, but here's what I'm going to look at. Maybe they win
06:12this game because the better pitcher on the mound certainly is decided for them with how, but if
06:16we take a look at that total, which is bouncing between tens and ten and a half, which means
06:20it's going to take 11 runs to beat you. What do we always like, Ben? You know, you give a nice
06:23little yawn there because most people stayed up for Sunday night baseball and watched it from
06:27their bedroom here on the East Coast. But on the West Coast, these guys were actually playing that
06:31game. So now you got to get on a plane. You got to get to Colorado. You're playing in elevation.
06:35You're a little bit cranky and tired. I think this game stays under. If you look at Austin Gomber,
06:39not a great pitcher. He's got a 107 XFIT bonus, which isn't bad. Now ZRA is high over the past
06:4360 days, 6.24 because he pitches in Colorado, but he's not that far over that disaster area
06:49of like that 115, 120 XFIT minus price. And also that Red Sox lineup that I love so much past 30
06:55days, Ben, against left-handed pitchers. Ref Snyder has been killing it. Romy Gonzalez has
06:59been decent. The rest of that lineup, which includes Raphael Devers, really struggling
07:03against lefties. I think Halc will be okay. Gomber will be solid. This game stays under the 10
07:08numbers. So I don't think we're getting to 11 runs here, Ben. The good thing about Sunday night
07:13baseball, when it's played on the West coast, it was a 4 p.m. local time start yesterday in LA.
07:19More MLB breakdowns coming your way next. Live right here on this Monday morning on the early
07:25line at on sports grid, looking forward to a 13 game slate around MLB on this Monday. Let's go
07:32to Atlanta. The Braves did not win their weekend. They dropped two of three against the St. Louis
07:38Cardinals after the all-star break. The Reds struggling on either side of the break. It will
07:43be Hunter Green, an all-star for Cincy, against the Atlanta Braves and Reynaldo Lopez, who,
07:49entering the all-star break, met the innings requirement to have the best ERA in baseball,
07:55the only one sub two at 188. Still remains that ERA for Lopez, but misses out on the innings
08:02requirement and that minimum around Major League Baseball. Lopez has only gone more than six
08:08innings of work twice this year. He doesn't go long into games when he gets the start, but
08:16Atlanta still booked is a pretty hefty home favorite today, nearing a dollar and a half
08:20at minus 144. Total is eight. What do you like in the ATL? Yeah, maybe you lean towards the dog
08:27price here to plus 132. Now, you think the better team is the Atlanta Braves? I actually do, but
08:31also the margin of victory now getting shorter and shorter and shorter when you take a look at
08:35the Atlanta Braves. Again, relying on Reynaldo Lopez, my guy to watch in the second half of this
08:40Major League Baseball season, to see if he can uphold what he did in the first half, quite
08:44frankly, was remarkable. He's got a 93 XFIT minus over the past 60 days, a 220 ERA and a 3.75 XFIT
08:51number, which is very good. But if we're looking one through nine on both of these teams, the
08:55better team is probably the Cincinnati Reds at the plate. India, De La Cruz, Steere, Stephenson,
09:00all really high elevated ISO power numbers and weighted on base percentages against right-handed
09:05pitching. But if we flip it over and say, all right, Hunter Green is an average pitcher. Can
09:09he hang around with this lineup for the Braves? Maybe so, because now you're down Ozzie Albies
09:14on top of already, already, you know, missing your MVP player, Ronald Acuna for a few months.
09:19I don't know how much more this lineup can endure if you're just going to rely on, hey,
09:22Austin Rowley and Marcel Zuna got to carry the weight of the entire ballclub. Good luck. How
09:27many runs can that equate to on a day-to-day basis? 79 degree temperatures down in Atlanta,
09:32four mile an hour winds blowing out. If I think Atlanta is better, but again, that razor thin
09:37margin of victory, which is what they need. How many runs are they putting up today? Give me the
09:41short price here as a dog on Cincinnati to hang around. I think that lineup might be able to put
09:45up some runs today on Ronaldo Lopez. Want to meet by runs? What do you need, Ben? Three or four
09:50total for the game? Yeah. All of a sudden, a pretty good game, by the way, in Pittsburgh at
09:56PNC Park. The Buccos did not pull off the sweep over Philadelphia yesterday. The Phil's winning
10:02six, nothing in that finale, but Pittsburgh has been playing really well as of late victories in
10:09seven of their last nine. The Pirates now above 500 at happening this weekend for the first time
10:15since April 24th, the St. Louis Cardinals are 21 and 13 in the last month plus as well. Pittsburgh,
10:23a slight home favorite today, minus 126 against the Redbirds. Total of eight and a half. Donnie,
10:29a game that actually looks pretty good on paper and should be. Yeah. And also you're looking at
10:35some of that playoff type atmosphere feel for the Pirates and the Cardinals here. The Pirates
10:40actually came off, even though they lost yesterday, beat the Philadelphia Phillies,
10:43the best record in Major League Baseball, jumpstarting the second half. And that didn't
10:46even include Paul Skeens. Skeens isn't going to pitch today, but due to be on the mound back
10:50tomorrow, fully rested. So if you think the Pittsburgh Pirates can win today, then pick up
10:55a victory, certainly with Skeens or at least be in it after five innings with Skeens on the mound.
10:59That's something to look forward to. If you're looking at both of these pictures, Palante comes
11:02here with a 95 XFIT minus over the past 60 days, which is pretty good. An ERA of 3.70. You take a
11:08look at Keller, a 100 XFIT minus and a 3.04 ERA. So if I look at that total of eight and a half,
11:14look, I love overs and I love to take them. But if I'm being honest, that's a true pitcher's
11:18ballpark. 77 degrees today, light wind blowing in. I don't know if we get the nine runs. I think
11:23both of these pitchers can manage those two lineups and I'm looking for an under today.
11:28As Donnie alluded to, eight and a half is that total. A ton of divisional duels on this Monday
11:33to start off a new week. We keep in the NL Central and we go to Wrigley, a virtual pick them.
11:39Milwaukee minus 110, the Cubbies and Javier Assad on the other side, minus 106. Eight and a half the
11:46total today at Wrigley Field. I assume that means the winds are blowing in. What do you like in the
11:51opener here between the Cubbies and the Brew Crew? Yeah, light wind blowing in 76 degrees. That four
11:57mile an hour wind is blowing in from right field. So it shouldn't really make a difference in this
12:00one. However, if I'm looking at Milwaukee, not in love with that lineup per se, but really the
12:04bottom is falling down. Javier Assad, one of the better pitchers in baseball early on in this Major
12:08League Baseball season. Now over the past 60 days, just taking those averages and it's been worse as
12:13late, worse as of late, I should say. A 111 X-fit minus number, a 5.85 ERA. So I think he can get
12:20touched up today. I'm just going pedigree on this. I think the pitchers might be a toss-up. I'll take
12:24the Milwaukee Brewers as the better overall team and I think Assad could get hit around today from
12:28the Brew Crew. The Brewers just a short two game set this weekend in Minnesota. They won both. They
12:34have a five game advantage over St. Louis for the top spot in the National League set. Plenty more
12:41Major League Baseball breakdowns coming your way for the next call it seven and a half minutes or
12:47so. And then we bid adieu to our friend Donnie right side radio. That is important. The updated
12:55money line, the new schedule, the money line starts at 11 a.m. Eastern time. You know what's
13:00important? Winning some baseball games. What happened to the Phil's out of the break? They
13:05dropped the first two in Pittsburgh against the Buccos, but did avoid the sweep with a six nothing
13:10victory yesterday. That in a time of turmoil in this country, we look to Nick Castellanos who did
13:16hit a solo shot with two outs in the top of the ninth. Ranger Suarez gets the start today for the
13:22Phillies on the road in Minneapolis. Minus 116. The Phil's a very slight road favorite. Total of
13:29eight. Only two games for the twins after the break. Hosting Milwaukee this weekend,
13:34they lost both. What happens here on this Monday to start off a new week?
13:39Yeah, that's going to be the biggest question mark is which actual Ranger Suarez are we getting? The
13:43guy over the first like 10 or 12 starts of the season that might have been up for a Cy Young
13:48award of the guy that we've been seeing lately who's struggling to get guys out. You take a look
13:52at Ranger Suarez over the past 30 days, a hundred and two batters faced by a 181 ISO power number,
13:57which is elevated and a weighted on base percentage of 378. That's going to do you in here. By the way,
14:03a 361 weighted on base percentage over the past 90 at bats to right-handed batters. Now here's
14:09what the question is going to be. You're looking at the lineup today, Ben, including switch hitters
14:13for the Minnesota twins. Every single one of them will be a right-handed batter. So that could be
14:17some damage today. And also you take a look at guys outside of Diego Castillo, who has two at
14:23bats against lefties over the past month for a zero ISO and a zero weighted on base percentage.
14:28Every other player in that lineup elevated weighted on base percentage numbers. You flip
14:33it over to the Phillies. They'll be fine at the plate. They got a lot of great guys who have done
14:36well over the past 30 days. It gets right into pitching Turner, Harper, Boehm, Castellanos,
14:40Marsh, and Rojas. They should be okay. Then you have the power stroke in that first spot there
14:44with Kyle Swerver. However, over it's been a decent picture over the past 30 days. I've been
14:49a decent pitcher this season winds blowing out at seven miles an hour, close to 80 degrees.
14:53So I take a look at that graphic there and say to myself, do I think the Phillies can win?
14:58I do, but I don't really trust ranger Suarez right now, but I just told you there's a lot
15:02of guys in both of these lineups with good weighted on base percentages here on maybe
15:05one of the better hitting days in Minnesota. You'll find roughly 80 degrees with the wind
15:09blowing out. Why not an over in this spot here? Hey, look, if Ranger Suarez goes back to his
15:13first part of the season, it's a dead under, but if we get four innings pitched in four and
15:17runs at a Ranger, which feels like is what he's been doing. Why not go over here?
15:20DRS. When you look at ranger Suarez, 19 starts made this MLB season in the first 16. He had a
15:2810 and two record with a one eight three ERA had given up just 20 earned runs in total in his first
15:3616 outings of the year. He's given up 15 earned in his last three starts, nearly as many earned
15:43runs given up in his last three as the entirety of his season prior. And he has dropped of course,
15:49two of those three got up to a nine and oh start with a 136 ERA near the end of May. So it is fair
15:56to question what version of Ranger Suarez you are going to see. And it's part of the handicap,
16:01I guess for Philadelphia, the remainder of this season. Again, the Phil's a very slight road
16:08favorite in the twin cities, a good matchup this week at Kaufman in Kansas city between the Royals
16:14and the D backs. Arizona has won nine of its last 12. They keep winning series against some
16:20of the best as we have seen Casey sweeping the worst team in baseball to open up after the all
16:27star break. That being the white socks minus one 56 in favor of Casey with the all-star Cole
16:34Reagan's on the bump. Is it going to be as easy as a win for the Royals as the odds makers anticipate?
16:41Yeah, by the way, a couple of Royals played that all-star game. So it's no longer to say like,
16:44I don't know who Cole Reagan's is now an all-star performer because he's been really good this year.
16:48And even over the past 60 days, I already told you how good Tarek scuba has been with that
16:52expert minus of 68. He's right behind him. Number two overall on the card today with the 74 expert
16:57minus. And how about this? And he already have 2.67 over the past 60 days and an expert number
17:02just over three at 3.05. He should be able to handle his business today. And also do you just
17:09say every single game? I don't care who is on the mound against the Kansas city Royals. Just give
17:13me Bobby Witt home run RBI props over his, you know, batting numbers of one and a half total
17:18bases and all that good stuff here. He has been electric this season. I'll go with the home team
17:22here. It is a heavy price for a Kansas city Royals team, but you're getting the much better picture
17:27on the mound today at home. I'll go the Royals direction here. The D-backs playing really good
17:32baseball, by the way, again, winners of 12 of their last 18. They have not lost a series in
17:37their last six sets looking like the reigning national league pennant winners. But of course,
17:42everybody in the National League West looking up at the Dodgers in opening weekend after the break
17:47sweep over the Boston Red Sox minus one 26 at home today against the San Francisco Giants,
17:55a favorite against play stone, the Giants. I'll be completely honest. I don't even know who the
18:00starting pitcher is today for Los Angeles. Do you DRS? It says Ryan, which again, you're just
18:06putting the Dodgers as a favorite here posted because they're at home and how electric their
18:10one through nine can be. But let's also remind ourselves Blake's not open the season. Not very
18:14good. Goes on the I-L. He's been good since coming back here. So if you're going to give me
18:19Snell against a guy we don't know much about at this point, I'm going to go with Blake's note,
18:23the plus money price here. I don't care if the Dodgers have won three straight games out of the
18:26break and is still at home today. I'll take the short price here on the San Francisco Giants.
18:31All right. River Ryan is his name. He gets the start. It should be his major league baseball
18:37debut. The number four in L.A.'s river. Oh, see, now I want to take with some plus money.
18:45But now I think it's got to be River Ryan at the ravine. That's a good point. The Dodgers,
18:50by the way, both River Ryan and potentially Clayton Kershaw to make a return in this series
18:58against their bitter rivals from Northern California in San Francisco. Let's finish up
19:03here, D.R.S., very quickly with the fourth and final game from the opening weekend and then some.
19:09The Mets and the Marlins. Miami has taken two of the first three. The Mets a minus 148 favorite
19:15today in South Florida to split this four game set. Not a lot of bad pitchers on the card today,
19:20but you're technically getting two of them here in South Florida. Now, Peterson is a little bit
19:24better, but Yoni Chirinos, that's a guy that you want in your teams to fade, I should say. You
19:29take a look at the power numbers, 241 weighted on base percentage, 411 to his last 94 batters
19:34against a pretty solid Mets lineup. If we get analytical, a 128 X-fit minus, which includes
19:39a 5.76 ERA over the past 60 days, the Mets should hammer away in South Beach today.