Friday afternoon forecast 19/01/24
19 January - National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hi there, it was minus nine Celsius in northern Scotland and close to minus nine Celsius in
00:06southern England on Friday morning but big changes are now on the way. We say goodbye
00:10to the cold, we say hello once again to the wet and windy as the jet stream powers up
00:16some deepening areas of low pressure. For the time being high pressure is in charge
00:20for the rest of Friday, that's bringing plenty of sunshine but by the end of Friday those
00:25westerly winds are returning and they really will be a significant influence on our weather
00:31later in the weekend and early next week. It's going to turn much milder but it's also
00:35going to turn much wetter once again and much windier as Storm Esher. Some considerable
00:41distance from the UK gets picked up by the jet stream on Saturday, deepens quickly and
00:47by the time we get to Sunday afternoon it's sweeping in from the west. Tightly packed
00:51isobars, widely strong if not disruptive and damaging winds for much of the UK. Before
00:59that happens it's a relatively quiet afternoon out there, still on the chilly side but plenty
01:03of sunshine for England, Wales, Southern and Eastern Scotland, some hazy sunshine for Northern
01:08Ireland as the higher cloud starts to move in and as the winds change, well we're going
01:15to see the snow level just rise a touch so that over central and northern Scotland it's
01:20rain at lower levels and snow largely above 300 metres for the rest of the afternoon although
01:26the snow will come down to lower levels for Shetland. So still the chance of some wintry
01:30hazards for northern Scotland but that's the last time we're mentioning those for a few
01:35days at least and for many of us actually it's just a pleasant afternoon with 4-7 Celsius.
01:41Now into the evening we're going to see the cloud increasingly thicken across the north-west,
01:47the showers turn to longer spells of rain, there's still some hill snow but by the end
01:52of the night that snow will be affecting 600 metres plus for central and northern Scotland
01:56and for Northern Ireland, for north-west England and north Wales as the rain arrives it will
02:01be largely rain. Some heavy and persistent rain in places by dawn on Saturday but for
02:06much of the rest of England and Wales actually it's dry with some clear spells overnight
02:11so still the chance of a frost for the south and south-east, temperatures dipping a degree
02:15or two below freezing in some of the colder spots but nowhere near as cold as it has been
02:20and you can see frost free at lower levels elsewhere across the UK. It's a breezy start
02:26then for Saturday, an increasingly cloudy start in the north and the west with spells
02:30of rain moving through Scotland, mountain snow here for a time and then that rain pushing
02:35into the north of England, north and west Wales and some light rain in the far south-west
02:41as well. The rain eases off for a time in the afternoon, many places will be drier if
02:46rather cloudy but for the Midlands, East Anglia and the far south and south-east we actually
02:51keep sunny spells going into the afternoon although it does turn increasingly breezy.
02:55After a chilly start temperatures will recover a little but actually it's still a little
03:00on the cold side, five or six Celsius in the south-east whilst it's much milder further
03:04north and west, nine degrees expected. But you can see it's increasingly wet there across
03:09Northern Ireland, west Wales, western Scotland by the end of the afternoon and those persistent
03:14outbreaks of rain push into much of the rest of Scotland, western England and Wales through
03:19the night. By Sunday we could start seeing some issues with the heavy rain especially
03:24over upland parts of western Britain with snowmelt an additional factor. But further
03:32east it's staying dry for the time being although it is increasingly windy. You can see on the
03:36wind gusts graphic here, 9pm Saturday, already we're seeing gusts of 50, perhaps 60mph but
03:43it's going to turn even windier into Sunday as storm Esher arrives. Here it is, strongest
03:49winds on its southern flank, that then sweeps into the UK for Saturday afternoon, that's
03:54when the winds really ramp up and as you can see by looking at the colours on the map and
03:59the key, widely wind gusts across southern Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland
04:03will be reaching 50 or 60mph, some exposed spots 70mph and the most exposed coasts of
04:10western and southern UK could see gusts of 80mph so that would lead to disruption and
04:16those wind gusts could be damaging with dangerous coastal conditions as well. A little bit of
04:20uncertainty about the strength of the winds later Sunday and into Monday across the north
04:24and north west of Scotland, that's something we'll keep a close eye on but certainly a
04:28widely windy day across much of the rest of the UK as storm Esher moves through finally
04:33calming down later Monday but the weather does stay very unsettled into next week. We'll
04:38keep you updated right here on YouTube.