Friday evening forecast 16/06/23
16 June - National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hi there, there'll be some lively weather about this weekend, not for everyone but in
00:05some places some monstrous thunderstorms will develop. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, hail,
00:11all a possibility. We do need the rain of course but when it falls so heavily in such
00:14a short space of time it can cause issues and that could be the case this weekend. Certainly
00:19through the evening into the early hours of Saturday we're going to see some showers increasingly
00:25spread into western parts of the UK. Could be some thundery activity for parts of Northern
00:29Ireland, again some torrential rain here, a possibility, not a guarantee though. Either
00:33way these showers will be hit and miss across western areas. A muggy night to come as that
00:37cloud advances from the Atlantic and temperatures stay up at 16 or 17 Celsius in the west. A
00:43different story for eastern areas, a fresh night here, 10 to 12 Celsius near the eastern
00:48north east coast. Single figures perhaps for eastern parts of Scotland but for the north
00:53east of Scotland some low cloud lingering through the night and that's affecting Shetland,
00:57Orkney and parts of Caithness first thing this weekend. That's eventually going to creep
01:01into parts of Aberdeenshire. But further west we've got those showers and they're going
01:06to increasingly affect more central areas, perhaps even the south east of England heading
01:10into Saturday afternoon. I think the biggest risk areas for thunderstorms across parts
01:15of Wales, parts of south west England but more especially Northern Ireland where some
01:19very lively downpours could develop, especially for counties Fermanagh and Tyrone. Hail, lightning,
01:27all a possibility as well. But they'll be hit and miss. Some areas will stay dry through
01:32the day on Saturday, especially the further east you are. Some hazy sunshine as the high
01:37cloud advances from the west. Feeling warm, feeling muggy actually with temperatures around
01:42the mid-twenties generally cooler towards the west where we've got those showers coming
01:46down, certainly cooler for the Northern Isles. Then into Saturday evening further showery
01:52rain affects western Scotland into western parts of England, Wales, Northern Ireland
01:56as well. Even some further thunderstorms here and there. Also there's the possibility
02:02of some thunder activity forming over the continent and drifting north into south east
02:07England. But it's mild, muggy everywhere, temperatures generally in the mid-teens as
02:12we start off Sunday. This low pressure is edging closer and closer as we start off Sunday.
02:18It's causing the air to rise, causing that instability, also introducing more humid air
02:22from the south and potentially drawing up some thunderstorms from the continent. Even
02:28some longer spells of wet weather where these thunderstorms have merged. So there's that
02:31possibility for that in the south east as we begin Sunday or even across central areas.
02:36Further north and west we've got showers developing as temperatures rise through Sunday. So hit
02:41and miss downpours. Not everyone will see these showers, it's worth emphasising. Some
02:46places will stay mostly dry or even just see a small amount of rainfall through the day
02:51on Sunday. But other areas could be hit badly by 60mm or more in a few hours as well as
02:59frequent lightning and hail. So a lot of ingredients coming together but thunderstorms don't happen
03:06widely across an area. Generally they are hit and miss like popping popcorn in a pan.
03:12Yellow thunderstorm warning at the moment for much of England and Wales. That's the
03:15area of most concern from impacts from thunderstorms. But even if you're in the yellow warning area
03:21doesn't mean you're guaranteed a thunderstorm. We'll refine the area over the next couple
03:25of days as we get closer to the event and more evidence comes through about where these
03:29thunderstorms are likely to particularly affect. Scotland I think still some showers, even
03:34the odd rumble of thunder about. But the further north you are in the UK the more likely you
03:39are to stay drier with some sunny spells coming through. But eastern Scotland, north east
03:44England seeing some low cloud come in from the North Sea. Keeping things cooler, fresher
03:49here. But actually where we avoid the showers and thunderstorms to the south and south east
03:55temperatures could rocket up to the mid or even high 20s, perhaps 30C if we don't see
04:01cloud cover in the south east. So it's very humid air flow that's coming up on Sunday
04:06and into Sunday night. And then it looks likely that these thunderstorms will merge, push
04:11north to bring a longer spell of rain further north across the UK. Clearing away to sunny
04:15spells and showers on Monday and Tuesday. So lots going on this weekend. Very important
04:22to stay across the weather forecast and you can find all the updates on social media.
04:28Bye bye.