Week ahead – Summer’s coming home
After a cool and, in places, very wet Monday, sunnier, drier and warmer weather is on the way as high pressure heads to the UK. Alex Deakin explains why.
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00:00Welcome to your week ahead forecast from the Met Office, a fairly gloomy Monday
00:04for large parts of the UK. However, if you're a fan of sunnier and warmer
00:09weather, you're in for a treat this week because the weather patterns are
00:13changing. Things drying up and turning sunnier and a fair bit warmer as well,
00:18particularly by the end of the week. What's going on? Well, low pressure is
00:22sitting nearby at the moment, but down here we have the Azores high. It usually
00:28sits over the Azores, hence the name, but it is drifting slowly but surely
00:33towards our shores, settling the weather down. Why the switch? Well, because of a
00:38move in the jet stream. The jet stream has been south shifted, unusually far
00:43south for a while now, but look at this, it is drifting to the north and that
00:47will allow the high pressure to build in behind it. And by the end of the week
00:52we will definitely be on the warm side of the jet, so temperatures should be
00:56climbing too. Before we get there, however, we've still got low pressure
01:00nearby, still bringing some heavy downpours across parts of the UK through
01:05Monday evening, but slowly I think they'll be fizzling out. It's not
01:08completely dry on Tuesday and probably quite a grey start. There'll still be a few
01:13showers across East Anglia and the southeast and all the time through the day
01:17the risk of drizzly conditions in the east coast of Scotland, northeast England.
01:21One or two scattered showers will develop through the day over England,
01:24Wales and Scotland, but many places won't see those showers and even where
01:29we do see them, they won't be as torrential as the downpours through
01:32Monday. Many will simply stay dry and it'll brighten up through the day. Sunny
01:35spells for Northern Ireland, western parts of England and Wales and with a
01:40bit of sunshine across the south, 23-24 degrees. Similar conditions in Western
01:44Scotland, always a little cooler in the east. As we go through Tuesday and into
01:49Wednesday, the high is just getting closer and closer. However, notice there
01:53are somewhat weather fronts just drifting their way towards the far
01:57northwest. They will increase the cloud across Western Scotland, especially by
02:02the end of Wednesday with a bit of light rain here. Otherwise, it's a fine day for
02:07most places. Still the small chance of one or two showers across eastern
02:11England and it'll probably stay fairly cloudy again on parts of that North Sea
02:16coast. But otherwise, sunny spells, temperatures widely over 20 Celsius,
02:20maybe 25 or possibly 26 across the southeast. The high is well and truly
02:26sitting across the UK by the time we get to Wednesday night and Thursday, a big
02:31old ridge. Now, the wind directions are going to be key as we see a bit of a
02:35drift still coming in from the North Sea. It could be a bit misty on those North Sea
02:40coasts once more, but cloud inland should tend to melt away and for the vast
02:44majority, Thursday's a dry, bright day. Spells of sunshine and temperatures
02:50again around about or a little bit above average, getting over 20 Celsius in most
02:54locations. Again, that breeze will be key and where we see the breeze depends on
02:59the exact shape and position of the high. It looks like it's going to topple right
03:03across the UK by the time we get to Friday, but as it drifts further north
03:07that will allow a bit more of a breeze to come in across maybe East Anglia and
03:11the southeast. So again, perhaps a little bit more cloud here and also it's not
03:16quite as warm on Friday here as well, but for the west where the winds are lighter
03:20and not coming in from the sea, temperatures likely to be a little bit
03:23higher on Friday, more widely into the mid-20s say across the Midlands, maybe
03:29parts of South Wales too. Into the weekends, again the position of the high
03:34will be key for the details of the weather. There's some uncertainty about
03:37exactly where the high sits, but it's going to be close to the UK, which means
03:42we can say for the weekend is the vast majority will stay dry and we'll see
03:46some sunny spells, but the position as say of that high depends on how high the
03:50temperatures get, but some signs it could get warmer still. UV levels are likely to
03:55be high as we head towards the weekend as well and pollen levels will be on the
03:59rise also. For more information on that, visit the Met Office website. Of course,
04:03for the latest day-to-day detail this week, make sure you're following us on
04:07social media.