Week Ahead 14/10/2024 – Warming up and wetting up
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 14/10/2024. After a chilly weekend temperatures will be rising this week but don’t expect it to be dry. Bringing you this ahead weather forecast is Alex Deakin.
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00:00Plenty going on in this week's weather for the week ahead.
00:03It's going to get warmer.
00:05It's going to get wetter.
00:06And things could get a bit lively as we head into the weekend.
00:10Before that, though, we've got a bit of a fight going on.
00:13This is the big picture.
00:14High pressure sitting to the east,
00:15low pressure sitting to the west.
00:17And slowly but surely, the low pressure and the weather fronts
00:20will win out, pushing away the area of high pressure
00:24and bringing some spells of rain.
00:25Before we have low pressure systems and weather fronts
00:28coming in from the Atlantic in a more typical fashion
00:31by the time we get to the weekend.
00:33Why the switch?
00:34Well, if we rewind and take a look
00:35at what's going on high in the atmosphere,
00:37where the jet stream is, you can see
00:39it's in this amplified pattern, this north-south pattern.
00:44And that will continue for the next couple of days.
00:46That's why our weather is fairly slow moving for now.
00:49But as we head towards the end of the weekend,
00:52into the weekend, the jet really gets going and powering
00:56in from west to east in a more classic setup, if you like.
01:01And that will generate some areas of low pressure.
01:04But that's a few days off.
01:06Let's come back to the here and now
01:08and take a look at what's going on for our weather
01:11closer to the ground.
01:13And with the high pressure sitting to the east of us
01:15on Tuesday and low pressure sitting to the west,
01:17that means the air is going to be drawing up from the south.
01:20That is why it's turning warmer.
01:22Temperatures on Tuesday, widely into the mid to high teens
01:27across the south, 17, 18 degrees.
01:31And particularly places to the north of hills,
01:34likely to see some high temperatures
01:35in parts of North Wales, even parts of northern Scotland
01:38could see those temperatures in the mid to high teens as well.
01:42It's going to be mild, but it's not necessarily
01:44going to be sunny.
01:45Quite a lot of clouds swarming over the UK
01:47to start on Tuesday.
01:49Some sunny skies across the far north.
01:50It's actually quite a chilly start here,
01:52but then with the help of those southerly winds,
01:54the afternoon will be a lot milder.
01:56And in the south, it should get a little brighter
01:58as the day goes on.
01:59The cloud will tend to thin a little after a misty murky
02:02start, a brighter afternoon.
02:04Most places dry, but there will be some drizzle around,
02:06especially early on.
02:08And come the afternoon, the threat
02:09of some showers coming into the southwest
02:12and the west of Northern Ireland also.
02:14That's from a couple of weather fronts pushing northwards.
02:16This is the big picture then as we
02:18go into Tuesday night and Wednesday.
02:19The high is still there, but it is pulling away.
02:22The weather fronts are slowly, slowly creeping in.
02:25And just to the south of this one, in fact,
02:28some really quite warm air.
02:30So yes, it's mild on Tuesday, but it's
02:32going to get warmer still through Tuesday night
02:34and into Wednesday.
02:35And that warmer air wafting its way north.
02:38These weather fronts, though, are
02:39introducing the moisture and the outbreaks of rain as well.
02:42But the overnight temperatures as we
02:45head into Wednesday morning, significantly
02:48above the average for the time of year, 3 to 6 degrees.
02:51And in some places, even higher than that.
02:53So yes, a very mild start to Wednesday.
02:55But again, it's not going to be sunny.
02:57In fact, it's quite a grey day.
02:58Those weather fronts providing outbreaks of rain,
03:00pulses of rain tracking northwards.
03:03The brighter colours suggesting some pretty heavy downpours.
03:06Bit early to pin down details, but the east
03:09of Northern Ireland, Wales, northwest England,
03:11and eastern Scotland, that zone is
03:13the area most at risk for some heavier downpours.
03:16Probably not too much in western Scotland.
03:18And in fact, much of eastern England for most of the day
03:21will be dry, will be predominantly cloudy,
03:24and a fairly brisk wind blowing at times as well.
03:26But again, that wind is wafting up the warm air.
03:29So look at the numbers.
03:31Temperatures 20, maybe 21 if it brightens up
03:33across the southeast.
03:34And even where it's raining for most of the day,
03:36temperatures significantly above the average
03:39for the time of year getting into the high teens.
03:41So quite a warm, humid, smuggy feel
03:44with a lot of mist and low cloud,
03:46as well as that heavy rain around.
03:48Now it's really Wednesday night and into Thursday
03:50when we'll start to see finally the weather fronts
03:52winning out and pushing across the UK.
03:54Introducing slightly cooler air, so the warmer air
03:57gets pushed away.
03:58But notice it's not chilly air.
04:00It's just going to be a touchdown
04:02after a very warm Wednesday.
04:04There's the possibility of this weather front just
04:06generating some rain close to the southeast of England.
04:09So that's something we need to watch on Thursday.
04:12But apart from that, most places looking fine on Thursday.
04:15Yes, it's likely to start pretty cloudy across the east.
04:17It should brighten up.
04:18The odd scattered shower developing in the west.
04:22Temperatures just dipping down a little bit,
04:25but still actually quite warm for the time of year.
04:27We could still get close to 20 Celsius across the southeast
04:30and, let's say, still above the average.
04:33Now by the time we get to Friday,
04:35we're looking at low pressure up to the northwest.
04:38And these weather fronts coming marching in.
04:40Notice the isobars spacing out.
04:41That means light winds overnight across the south
04:44could lead to some foggy conditions on Friday morning.
04:47But the isobars closer together across the north and west
04:50could generate some pretty lively winds.
04:53And on Friday, some very high tides around as well.
04:55So if those two things combine, we
04:58need to watch out for that.
04:59That could generate some coastal flooding, the high tides
05:01and the strong winds in the northwest.
05:03So that's another thing we need to watch
05:05come the end of the week, along with the rain coming in
05:07on those weather fronts too.
05:08But notice for a good chunk of England and Wales,
05:11much of Friday, I think, will be dry.
05:13And certainly in the east, we should hang on
05:15to some sunny spells.
05:16Temperatures, again, a degree or so down
05:18compared to Thursday's values, but still, for most places,
05:20above average for the time of year.
05:22So it is going to be a warmer week.
05:25But will it turn increasingly windy?
05:27Those weather fronts push in.
05:28And then we look out in the Atlantic.
05:31Areas of low pressure likely to be being developed
05:34or intensified by that jet stream
05:36we saw earlier picking up out here and powering in.
05:40So that's another watch point as we head into the weekend,
05:42the potential for some wet and windy spells,
05:45particularly the second half of the weekend.
05:47So as always, best to keep up to date with the forecast.
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