Thursday morning forecast 23/12/21
23 December - National weather forecast presented by Steven Keates.
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00:00Hello again. Well, after that quiet start to the week, things are turning a bit more
00:04unsettled now in the run-up to Christmas, with low pressure dominating things across
00:08the UK, which means rain at times for many places, certainly a more unsettled theme.
00:12We're also going to see warmer air pushing in from the south, but coming up against cold
00:17air hanging firm further north, which means that by Christmas, certainly can quite mix
00:21fortunes across the UK. More on that in just a moment.
00:25Back to the here and now. Under the Atlantic is slowly waking up, courtesy of this area
00:29of low pressure, as it pushes weather fronts north-eastwards across the UK, slowly displacing
00:33the coldest of the air and that area of high pressure from earlier on in the week. Those
00:38weather fronts are bringing outbreaks of rain, which have been working their way northwards
00:41through Wednesday, and through Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday, continued risk
00:45of some rain falling onto frozen surfaces, but perhaps some genuine freezing rain in
00:49places across parts of Scotland. So certainly an ice risk here, a bit of snow up over the
00:53mountains too. Not really making it to the far north of Scotland, where there'll be a
00:57mixture of clear spells and showers. And elsewhere, after some early evening rain,
01:01well, things are becoming generally a bit drier through the end of the night. Quite
01:04a lot of cloud around, a few clear spells, and not as cold as it has been of recent nights.
01:08In fact, quite a mild end to the night, with temperatures in double figures across parts
01:11of Wales, southwest England and Northern Ireland as well.
01:15So a fairly cloudy start to Thursday morning, it has to be said, not desperately inspiring.
01:19One or two breaks possible, first thing, for the first part of the morning across eastern
01:23England, and we've still got the legacy of Wednesday's rain across parts of central and
01:28northern Scotland. This will tend to fizzle out for a time, but if anything then pep back
01:31up later in the day, as the next weather front pushes its way in from the southwest. So quite
01:36a wet day to come for the bulk of mainland Scotland, some rain too, perhaps quite heavy
01:40for a time across Northern Ireland and Northern England. But areas further south than this,
01:44the rainfall amounts not that much, and most places have seen a few showers from time to
01:48time, but nothing more than that. And then something a bit brighter coming back into
01:51Wales, southwest England, as well as perhaps Northern Ireland later, where it will be
01:55very mild temperatures, 12, 13 degrees, that's well above average for the time of year. In
01:59contrast, there's still quite chilly conditions underneath and to the north of our band of
02:04rain.
02:05Now through Thursday evening, this rain will continue to make slow progress a little bit
02:10further north across Scotland, still encountering colder air, so the potential for some significant
02:14snow to develop across the mountains of Scotland, above about 400 metres, so if you are travelling
02:18in this part of the world Thursday night into Christmas Eve, something to certainly
02:22bear in mind. Again, not quite making it to the far north of Scotland, so a mixture of
02:26clear spells and showers for Orkney and Shetland, and to the south of our rain band, where we'll
02:31see skies clearing to a certain extent. One or two fog patches forming though by the early
02:36hours of Christmas Eve. So if you're travelling on Christmas Eve, then there could certainly
02:41be some fog around first thing across parts of central and southern England. These can
02:45be quite dense and will be quite slow to clear when they do form, so that's something again
02:48just to bear in mind.
02:50The rain further north across Scotland tended to fragment through the day, but towards the
02:53south west, well here we go again, the next band of rain coming in, again some of this
02:56quite heavy, quite brisk wind associated with this as well, so not particularly pleasant
03:01conditions it has to be said by Christmas Eve afternoon, that rain reaching into Northern
03:05Ireland as well, but on the whole a drier day for parts of Scotland compared to what
03:08we've seen over the last couple of days. Mild again in the south west, but still on the
03:12chilly side, further towards the north east.
03:16And this sets the scene really for the big day itself. We've still got cold air towards
03:20the north and east of the UK. Milder air continues to try to push in from the south west, where
03:26the two are meeting. This is where we're going to have weather fronts, and it's along those
03:30weather fronts where we're going to see an awkward mixture of rain, sleet and potentially
03:33some snow on its northern edge. Still some uncertainty as to the detail regarding this,
03:37so certainly keep up to date with the forecast.
03:41Now so for a Christmas day then, for a summary, we're looking at a bit of a three way split.
03:46So in the north of the UK, generally looking quite cold, with the best of the sunshine
03:49across northern and north-western Scotland. Further south, probably we'll be in the milder
03:54air, so definitely a green Christmas rather than the white one here, but it will be quite
03:58unsettled with some showers around as well. In between though, over here we're going to
04:02have that risk of some rain, and on its northern edge, particularly over high ground, parts
04:06of the Pennines, southern uplands, well that could increasingly turn to snow through the
04:09day. So for some of us, a white Christmas is possible, for plenty of us I think it will
04:13be a green Christmas, but there's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast. So the
04:16best advice I have at the moment is to keep up to date with the Met Office across social
04:20media or by checking out the Met Office website. Take care.