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00:00We are now sponsored by the Breeders' Cup here at Better Things with Joe Bianca. It's so exciting
00:04to have them aboard. They're obviously a huge name in racing, and like I said earlier,
00:08they're gold standard in international championship racing. And the way this is going to work is I'm
00:13going to do a handicapping segment for every weekend that there are nationally televised
00:17Breeders' Cup Win in Urine Challenge races, and we'll kick it off this week with the grade one
00:22$1 million TVG.com Haskell Invitational this Saturday, July 23rd at Monmouth Park. The Win
00:29in Urine program, if you're not, you're probably familiar, but if you're unfamiliar,
00:32is an immensely successful and popular initiative the Breeders' Cup launched in 2007
00:37that features a constantly increasing schedule of big races, mainly throughout the summer and
00:42fall that provide fees paid entries along with travel allowances for the corresponding Breeders'
00:46Cup races for the winners of various challenge races. It's been great for the Breeders' Cup,
00:51but honestly, it's also been great for the array of tracks these races are run at,
00:55and in a racing landscape where we're stuck with a lot of short fields and trainers ducking races,
01:00looking for the easiest spots, this is an incentive. And incentives like this bolster
01:04the fields of those races, give us a more full racing schedule with full top class fields
01:10on the road to the Breeders' Cup. So I'm really excited for this partnership. It's a natural one.
01:14I would be handicapping these races anyway. I'm sure all of you watching and listening
01:18are going to be handicapping these races anyway. So it's going to be a lot of fun
01:21the next six or eight weeks or so in the summer and fall. The Haskell is a very special race
01:26every year on the calendar, and Monmouth Park is a really special place. If you haven't been there,
01:30I strongly suggest you go if you're ever near the New Jersey coast. It's got a similar vibe to
01:34Saratoga in that it's a beautifully preserved historic track with a real kind of summer day
01:40party vibe to it, and great atmosphere. People come to bring their coolers and hang out with
01:44friends and family at the track, and this beautiful little ocean breeze comes in while you're watching
01:49horses run. It's really its bliss in the summer. The Haskell is the centerpiece of the meet. It's
01:54been run since 1968 every year at a mile and an eighth. This year it goes as race 12 on a 14 race
02:00program with a post time of 545 eastern time. So let's get into it. Let's get into handicapping
02:05the Haskell and a little bit of the races outside surrounding the Haskell. We have an eight-horse
02:11field in the Haskell with two horses expected to take the bulk of the wagering attention,
02:15but each have something to prove, which is what makes this a bettable race. A lot of times you see
02:19those short prices. You want to steer clear, but both Jack Christopher and Teba, who were the main
02:24contenders, have some questions to answer. Jack Christopher to me, pound for pound, looks like the
02:28most talented three-year-old in the country today in what looks like at least an above-average crop,
02:33if not an elite crop. He's undefeated in four starts by a combined 25 and a quarter lengths,
02:38including two great one wins, and his race in the Woody Stevens was something to behold. We'll show
02:42the stretch run of that final 20 seconds or so. You generally don't see horses show the kind of
02:48acceleration he produced in the final furlong of that race. He came home in 35.71 for his final
02:54three-eighths and, you know, what looked to be a kind of a comfortable win turned into an absolute
02:59rout in the blink of an eye. And he's also proven that while he's plenty fast, he doesn't need the
03:03lead. So he's capable, I think, of letting someone else go, at least one horse go in the Haskell if
03:08they're hell-bent on getting to the front. But with that being said, he's never been around two
03:13turns. There's an old adage in betting horses that I'm sure a lot of you have heard. I find it to
03:18generally be true that you don't take horses at short prices doing something they've never done
03:22before. And this is a turning point race for Jack Christopher in terms of what he's going to be
03:26asked to do the rest of the year, whether he's going to stay at a mile or try to stretch out
03:30and be a Breeders' Cup Classic winner going a mile and a quarter. And while Chad Brown has shown
03:35immense confidence in him, even he doesn't know. He doesn't know until it happens whether or not
03:39he can go two turns and be the same horse that he is going one turn. And let's be clear, if he is,
03:45he's going to win this race. But we don't know that yet. And his pedigree, lean sprint as well,
03:50his damn Russian no-blushing was eased in her only start going beyond six and a half furlongs.
03:56His second damn blushing Ogidgeon never traveled further than six furlongs. His Sire Munnings and
04:02damn Sire half hours were sprinter miler types. So there's no guarantee in his pedigree, as brilliant
04:07as he is, that he's going to be able to stretch out to two turns at a mile and an eighth.
04:11Going to Teba, Teba has similarly been one of the most impressive three-year-olds of 2022.
04:17Debuted with a 102 buyer and a seven and a half length win going six furlongs at Santa Anita.
04:22He was ambitiously placed in the Santa Anita Derby after that, asked to stretch out three
04:26furlongs and step into a grade one in just his second career start, which is basically unheard
04:31of. And he validated that confidence. He did so remarkably professionally for a horse with so
04:35little seasoning, switched off beautifully and ran away from a really talented stable made of
04:40his and Messier, who had much, much more foundation going into that race. He could easily vault to the
04:45top tier of the three-year-old division. He's been a little bit forgotten recently if he wins this
04:49race. And while he doesn't have quite as much early speed as Jack Christopher, he's shown he's
04:53fast enough to not let that rival run away and hide if nobody else goes. But similar to Jack
04:58Christopher, he's got questions to answer. And for him, it's about where his current form stands.
05:04He was fairly close to a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby, but the fact of the matter is he never did
05:08any real running, never made a move and didn't switch leads in the stretch, which is never a
05:13great sign. And in my opinion, he ran the worst race of the three Derby horses running in the
05:17Haskell, even though he was the first among them across the wire, considering why the barrio is
05:22extreme ground loss around both turns. And the fact that Cyberknife at least launched a little
05:26bit of a bid on the far turn before he flattened out badly. And those two will be significantly
05:31bigger prices than Tayba on Saturday. So the wagering strategies for this race will be, A,
05:36find a horse or two to back on the win end. And this is one of those rare scenarios
05:40because you have not only one, but two horses who are going to be below two to one. So you're
05:45essentially guaranteed to get at minimum four to one on anybody else in the race you like,
05:50probably more like five or six to one. So that's going to be my first play. B, going to play safer
05:55exactives with the two favorites over my picks because I do respect both of them as much as I
06:00have questions about their vulnerability as favorites. And C, find somewhere to lean in the
06:04pick four outside of the Haskell, spread in the Haskell, and then play a second smaller ticket
06:09pressing Jack Christopher and Tayba. Because I think if you can beat them, I don't know that
06:14you're going to beat them for first and second within the race, but if you can beat them in the
06:17multi-race sequences where I think a lot of people are going to lean on those two, I think you can
06:22get paid. So let's figure out who we like. Let's look at the rest of the field by process of
06:26elimination. Two horses can't win this race without running by far the best race of their life. That's
06:31one-time Willard and King of Hollywood. Benevengo is not entirely possible. He's been working up a
06:36storm over the track, but he's still very, very unlikely. Crucially though, Benevengo and one-time
06:41Willard bring early speed, which may make things tougher on Jack Christopher and to a lesser extent
06:47Tayba. So that leaves us with White Abario, Cyberknife, and Howling Time. White Abario comes
06:52out of a second in the Ohio Derby, while the latter two came out of a real thrilling stretch
06:57battle in the mat win, which ended with Cyberknife winning by the slimmest of photos after Howling
07:02Time had set the pace and battled back super gamely in deep stretch. Overall, while I respect
07:08White Abario and the races he ran earlier this year at Gulfstream Park, I've yet to see him
07:12reproduce that form outside of Gulfstream, and I thought he really didn't have any excuse in the
07:17Ohio Derby. He sat in the perfect spot of dueling leaders, and he still got outkicked by Tawny Port,
07:23who I don't think anybody considers, at least right now, a top-class three-year-old. He's
07:27stepping up to face top-class three-year-olds after he couldn't hold off Tawny Port, and I just
07:32think he may have a little bit more punch going shorter. Even in his Florida Derby win, he ran a
07:37very slow final furlong of over 14 seconds, so that leads me to the two mat win horses, and I
07:42just think overall the mat win was a stronger prep in my eyes than the Ohio Derby, despite
07:48Classic Causeway coming back out of the ladder and winning the Belmont Derby on turf. You know,
07:52these comparisons are a little messy to make one-to-one sometimes, but there was one horse who
07:57ran in both races named Droppin' G's. He was beating 14 lengths in the mat win and seven and a quarter
08:02lengths in the Ohio Derby, so that's a big difference for a horse who conceivably was in
08:07similar form going into both of those races. And to add to that, third-place finisher in the mat
08:12win, Rattle and Roll, who was a grade one winner as a two-year-old, came back to win the American
08:17Derby next time out, improving his buyer figure by seven points. So, out of Cyberknife and Howling
08:22Time, I prefer Cyberknife because he's got the right style here to save ground, sit in the second
08:28flight, four to six lengths off the leader, kick home strongest of the non-favorites should the
08:33pace get hot. You know, Howling Time was able to rate and win as a two-year-old, and Joe Talomo,
08:38who's his rider in this race, would be wise to back off the pace and try that again on Saturday,
08:42but with him having success in his last two races on the lead, it's tough, I think, for connections
08:47to change what had been working. So, he definitely could get caught up in the pace, whereas I don't
08:50have that worry with Cyberknife. I know Ferranturu is just going to sit, be patient, try to make one
08:55run, and hope the speed comes back. All right, so here are the plays. We've got a $200 budget for
09:02this race and for the Pick 4 combined. So, in the Haskell, I'm going with $70 to win on number one,
09:08Cyberknife, $30 to win on number four, Howling Time, then $10 exactas with number two, Teba,
09:14and number seven, Jack Christopher, over Cyberknife and Howling Time. So, within the race,
09:19I'm betting $140 total. In the Pick 4, we're going to lean on number three search results
09:24in the Molly Pitcher. She ran a terrific race for Chad Brown, dueling the great Latruska,
09:30champion Latruska, into defeat in the Ogden Fiffs before understandably tiring a bit to be third
09:35late in the race. Anything close to that effort, she's going to win the Molly Pitcher. She just
09:39outclasses those horses, and she's got the kind of speed to be successful on the Mamas Strip,
09:44which is generally a little bit more favorable to speed horses. We've got the grade one United
09:49Nations, which is right before the Haskell. We'll use the top three from the Manhattan,
09:54who are all coming back in this race, number one, Adamo, number four, Tribuvan, who won the
09:58United Nations last year, and number 10, Giffo, along with number three, Temple, who I think is
10:04the horse in that race. It could make some noise, hopefully at a square price, six or eight to one
10:07or so. And the Matchmaker, which is the first leg of the Pick 4, will spread a bit, using a huge
10:13bomb in number one, Hull Boatie Meister, who she's got poor form right now, but she's bred to like
10:18turf. Her dam was completely a turf horse. Also use number two, LaMista, number four, Lady Rockstar,
10:24number five, Flighty Lady, and number seven, Vigilante's Way. So here's the Pick 4 ticket.
10:28We'll put it up on the screen. One, two, four, five, seven, with three, with one, three, four,
10:34ten, with one, two, four, seven, which is $40 for $50. And then we'll press with the favorites in
10:40the Haskell, going one, two, four, five, seven, with three, with one, three, four, ten, with two, seven,
10:46which adds up to another $20 for 50 cents, which is $60 total. The Pick 4 starts in race nine.
10:52So we got all these plays up on the screen. Best of luck if you're following along. Thank you again
10:57to the Breeders' Cup for joining us on Better Things with Joe Bianca. I'm so excited for this
11:01partnership, and it really does kick off with a nice card and a nice race on Saturday, a race that,
11:05like I said, a lot of us will be handicapping and watching no matter what, but it really adds
11:10to it when you get the star power of Jack Christopher and Teba. But then they have a
11:14little bit of vulnerability as well, so you can potentially make some money in the race too. So
11:19looking forward to it on Saturday. If you're anywhere near the Jersey Shore, you definitely
11:23should head down to Monmouth Park. It's a phenomenal day of racing. The weather looks
11:26like it's going to be pretty good and cannot wait for it.