• 2 days ago
Transcript
00:00:00They say, the harder the work, the greater the reward.
00:00:18This is our life's work.
00:00:21Good morning.
00:00:24It is 9-12 Wednesday, April 13th.
00:00:27This is the TDN Writer's Room, presented by Keeneland.
00:00:30My name is Joe Bianca.
00:00:31I'm the Associate Editor of the Thoroughbred Daily News, and I want to congratulate the
00:00:35Brooklyn Nets and especially, especially, especially my New York Rangers for clenching
00:00:40playoff spots.
00:00:41Hopefully, we got a fun spring coming up in the city.
00:00:43Good morning.
00:00:44I'm Bill Finley, a correspondent for the Thoroughbred Daily News, and staying on the subject of
00:00:48New York sports, I went to the Yankee Red Sox game at Yankee Stadium on Saturday.
00:00:53A beer, $15.
00:00:55Are you kidding me?
00:00:57There's one more reason to hate the New York Yankees.
00:01:01Jonathan Green, General Manager at DJ Stable, and for those of you who watch our podcast
00:01:06on video, keep an extra eagle eye out for when we do the interview with Alan Forman.
00:01:13Watch Bill Finley, because at one point in time during the interview, you'll see Bill
00:01:17smile just like that, and it's not because of anything that we said or that Alan Forman
00:01:21said, and he was a great interview.
00:01:23It was because the Boston Red Sox tied it up in the top of the sixth, and you see Bill
00:01:26Finley's great character, and actually smile for once.
00:01:29It was a beautiful thing.
00:01:30In game five of 162, no less.
00:01:34Also, Bill, how much are the beers at Fenway?
00:01:37$14?
00:01:38They're not $15.
00:01:39I don't remember, but they're not $15.
00:01:42Come on, $15 for a beer?
00:01:45You got to be serious.
00:01:46I thought when you go to Fenway, you just put the Sam Adams in your pocket and walk
00:01:49in.
00:01:50Is that what you did?
00:01:51Also, guys, we can't see it right now because we're in the three shot, but I finally put
00:01:55a calendar up behind me, and it was March.
00:01:58It was on March last week.
00:01:59Come on.
00:02:00You guys got to help me out on this kind of stuff.
00:02:01I finally have a little bit of a background.
00:02:02I already screwed it up.
00:02:03I know we're on a delay.
00:02:04I didn't think it was that much of a delay.
00:02:05The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:02:06The catalog is now online for the April Horses of Racing Age sale after the races on closing
00:02:07day of the spring meet, which is Friday, April 29th.
00:02:08Approved supplements will be accepted until sale date.
00:02:09You can visit aprilhorses.com.
00:02:10We'll see you next time.
00:02:11Bye.
00:02:12The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:02:13The catalog is now online for the April Horses of Racing Age sale after the races on closing
00:02:19day of the spring meet, which is Friday, April 29th.
00:02:22Approved supplements will be accepted until sale date.
00:02:24You can visit april.keeneland.com for more details.
00:02:29This is super refreshing.
00:02:30We're just going to talk about races this whole episode.
00:02:33I remember the last time on the Writer's Room, we didn't have a trainer getting suspended
00:02:38or a lawsuit to discuss.
00:02:40We're just going to talk about racing for this episode, and we're going to start with
00:02:44the three-year-olds.
00:02:45It was a phenomenal weekend of racing at Aqueduct, Keeneland, Santa Anita, all across the country.
00:02:48We obviously had the three major preps, the final preps, for all intents and purposes
00:02:54for the Kentucky Derby.
00:02:55We had Zandon winning in the bluegrass.
00:02:58We had a great finish with Mo Donegal just nailing early voting in the wood.
00:03:02And then we had Teba, who was kind of an under-the-radar horse in the Santa Anita Derby, but broke
00:03:08out with a big performance and adds the intrigue of Amir Zidane now having a derby horse after
00:03:14the whole kerfuffle with Medina Spirit over the last year.
00:03:18But I'm curious, which one of those horses was most impressive to you guys and why?
00:03:22Well, Joe, that's an easy one.
00:03:24It was Zandon in the bluegrass.
00:03:25I mean, all three horses were good.
00:03:28All three horses have a chance to win what is a very, very wide-open Kentucky Derby.
00:03:33We can talk about that a little bit later, but I foresee a five-to-one favorite in the
00:03:37race.
00:03:39What made Zandon so impressive was how he overcame the trip.
00:03:44And he was back early.
00:03:46It was actually after three-quarters of a mile last.
00:03:49That's after Pratt tried to make a move and kind of ran it.
00:03:52He didn't do anything wrong, but he was just sort of behind a wall of horses, had nowhere
00:03:56to go.
00:03:57He gets back to last at the three-quarters.
00:04:00And at that point, if you bet on him or if you're rooting for him or if you're Chad Brown,
00:04:03you probably think, I'll be happy to run third at that point.
00:04:07And he just motored when he got clear, found a path, sort of two or three paths off the
00:04:12rail and got the job done.
00:04:15I think he may have a chance to be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby because I think that's
00:04:19going to be sort of the buzz race, his bluegrass going forward.
00:04:24Modonogl was good because he ran down early voting, who really had everything on his own
00:04:28way on the front end, and early voting is a good horse.
00:04:32And then Taba, could he be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby?
00:04:38You won't have the Baffert Mystique, per se, because it's no longer a Baffert horse.
00:04:42But look at what he's done, how remarkable it is to go from a six-four long Baden race
00:04:47to win the Santa Anita Derby.
00:04:48You got to be super, super good to do that.
00:04:51And also, among all the horses that ran over the weekend, his 103 buyer was the best of
00:04:58the bunch.
00:04:59The Zanda 98, Modonogl 96, epicenter office fairgrounds race, the Louisiana Derby 102.
00:05:06So do the buyer numbers on Taba, do they make him the favorite?
00:05:11Epicenter, does he become the favorite over some decisive wins in Louisiana?
00:05:16Or does Zandan the favorite after overcoming sort of a troubled trip?
00:05:20I think those three will vie for favoritism, and right now, I couldn't tell you who'd be
00:05:23the favorite in there.
00:05:25I think Zandan was optically the most impressive, not only because of the way he did it, but
00:05:31also the horses that were in the race.
00:05:33Top to bottom, that was, in my estimation, the hardest prep with the Wood Memorial being
00:05:40closest second and Santa Anita being the least difficult out of the three.
00:05:46But Taba just really impressed me.
00:05:48And I always have an East Coast bias.
00:05:50And so for me to be impressed by a West Coast runner, especially being that it was the second
00:05:58start, I mean, he went from six furlongs to nine furlongs.
00:06:01So he increases the distance of his previous race by 50%.
00:06:06And I know that history is against him, being that he didn't start until March, and it's
00:06:10going to be his third start in the Derby.
00:06:14But man, he fulfilled, as difficult as it is to say, he fulfilled the $1.7 million price
00:06:20tag that he was.
00:06:22I mean, he really jumped up and is very, very impressive.
00:06:28And again, I usually discount the horses that come in from the West Coast, because
00:06:32they don't have the depth of field like we do here in the East or the Midwest.
00:06:37The preps aren't nearly as tough, and these horses, it seems like the buyer numbers are
00:06:41always inflated when you get these West Coasters coming in.
00:06:44But as far as looking at the three races, I thought his was the most impressive.
00:06:51And Modonical, I picked him from my team for the contest, and he just kind of grinded
00:06:58it out.
00:06:59I mean, he started a big move, and which was Rosario moved him as early as he could to
00:07:04make sure that he could get some room.
00:07:07And he just kind of wore down early voting, who was in front almost from the get-go.
00:07:12And I think they both kind of lucked into it, because Morello had such a bad break.
00:07:16He broke poorly, and it stayed last.
00:07:18And I think that changed the landscape of the way that the race was going to be run
00:07:23from the get-go.
00:07:24But guys, I hate to admit it, and it's why I'm wearing my Del Mar shirt today, but this
00:07:29horse from California may be the best one.
00:07:31And if not, Messier still may be the horse to beat, being that he was coming off a layoff
00:07:37and is in a new barn and stuff like that.
00:07:40The West Coast may be the way into the Derby at this point.
00:07:45Yeah, I mean, I agree with you guys that visually I thought Zandon looked the best out of any
00:07:49of them, because of the kind of trip he had.
00:07:52And I thought that that was just one of those races where it was pretty clear in the stretch
00:07:57which horse was going to get 10 furlongs and which horse wasn't.
00:08:00And I say that as a fan of Smile Happy.
00:08:02I picked him in the contest, and I didn't think he ran poorly, especially, it was only
00:08:08his second start as a three-year-old, only his fourth start overall, I believe.
00:08:12So I thought he ran okay, but in the stretch, Zandon really just howled away from him.
00:08:18And it seemed to me that he's clearly the horse that you want going 10 furlongs.
00:08:21The only thing about him is he doesn't get out of the gate all that well, and that could
00:08:25be a problem.
00:08:26You know, it's just one of those truisms, I think, that you don't have to be super close
00:08:31to the pace in the Derby, but in general, you don't want to break slow and have to pass
00:08:3518 or 19 horses.
00:08:36It's just too tough of a task, even though it's been done over time.
00:08:40And Arcos, mind that bird, come to mind, but you really need a total meltdown if you're
00:08:44not within the first 10 or 12 horses in the Derby.
00:08:48So if he can get out of the gate, and Flavien Pratt, how's that move for Flavien Pratt looking
00:08:53so far, moving east?
00:08:55There are some people who question whether or not you want it to be a medium fish in
00:08:58a big pond and et cetera.
00:09:00Looking pretty good so far, had an incredible opening weekend at Keeneland, as I expected
00:09:04him to do.
00:09:05He's one of the best in the business.
00:09:06But yeah, he's a rider that I think can get some speed out of a horse that doesn't
00:09:10necessarily have that speed.
00:09:13Tabor looked great, but to the point that John's making, it's just hard to get excited
00:09:17about these five and six horse fields and a horse that really had a good trip.
00:09:22I get that he had to run down Messier, who was a really nice horse, and I didn't think
00:09:25Messier was particularly stopping in that race.
00:09:28I thought Tabor really went and got him.
00:09:29So he's obviously super talented, but he had that easy, just kind of sit back, make one
00:09:35run trip, forbidden kingdom, made Messier work a little bit before packing it in on
00:09:40the turn.
00:09:41Forbidden kingdom is not going to go to the derby, Richard Mandela announced over the
00:09:45weekend.
00:09:46So that's interesting.
00:09:47We're going to talk a little bit about the derby and spin it forward later in the show
00:09:49and what the pace might be like, especially forbidden kingdom being out of the race, I
00:09:54think definitely affects that classic causeway also might be out.
00:09:57So we might get a derby that does not have quite as much early speed as it looked like
00:10:01two, three, four weeks ago.
00:10:04As for the wood, you guys mentioned it, Morello breaking slowly, completely changed that race
00:10:09coming out of the gate.
00:10:10I thought Modonigal got a typically good ride under under Joel Rosario, finished up strong,
00:10:16you know, early voting.
00:10:17I like him a lot because he's, you know, he's only had a couple of races, but he's never
00:10:21going to have an easier time of it than he did on Saturday, and he still couldn't hold
00:10:25off Modonigal.
00:10:26So even though I think he's a really nice horse, and I think he's, he's got development
00:10:30still to come.
00:10:31I don't know how you project him beating Modonigal and then like eight or nine other contenders
00:10:36in the derby, even if there is not quite as much speed as we thought there might be.
00:10:41But I wanted to ask you about Teba from you guys, because there is a lot of discussion
00:10:45about going from a six for a long race to a mile and an eighth race, then a mile and
00:10:50a quarter Kentucky Derby, which is arguably the big, arguably the biggest test of a three,
00:10:54a three year old can possibly have, at least in North American racing.
00:10:57And a lot of people are criticizing because Amir Sadan made that decision.
00:11:02He's admitted it.
00:11:03He overruled Steve Young and Tim Yaktin to run that horse in the Santa Anita Derby.
00:11:07It obviously looks smart today, but I think people are worried that, you know, running
00:11:12him in that race and then running him in the derby four weeks later with so little season
00:11:16it might burn him out for later in the year.
00:11:19What do you guys think?
00:11:20Do you subscribe to that theory?
00:11:21Joe, I do.
00:11:23I mean, it could be a factor, you know, if he run 17th in the derby because he's just
00:11:29not ready for that challenge, then, you know, you lose a big part of your year and maybe
00:11:35you don't see the horse come back till the fall or anything like that.
00:11:38But I talked to Amir Sadan earlier in the week and, you know, what he said was it's
00:11:43the Kentucky, I'm paraphrasing, but he said was my whole stable, my philosophy is geared
00:11:48around trying to win the Kentucky Derby.
00:11:50I have this horse that has an incredible talent.
00:11:52I've got to give him the shot here.
00:11:54So I think the big risk was going in the Santa Anita Derby.
00:11:59Now that you've passed that test, I think going in the Kentucky Derby, which is now
00:12:03at this point is a no-brainer.
00:12:04You're not possibly going to win the Santa Anita Derby, then not go in the Kentucky Derby.
00:12:08But I think that that is less of a test.
00:12:12I think he passed the big one, the real big one, and now he goes into this.
00:12:16And, you know, 15 years ago, I might have said a horse like this had absolutely no shot
00:12:21to win the Kentucky Derby.
00:12:22But look at Justify.
00:12:23And I'm not saying he's Justify, although he could be, but, you know, he had only three
00:12:29races going into the Kentucky Derby, excuse me, yeah, three races going into the Kentucky
00:12:34Derby.
00:12:36And his also started what in March or February of his year.
00:12:40So this horse is Justify less one race.
00:12:44He skipped the, Justify was made an allowance Santa Anita Derby.
00:12:48He went made in Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby.
00:12:51So, you know, I think what Justify proved to us all, especially in this day and age,
00:12:56you know, none of the horses going into the Kentucky Derby will have 18 lifetime starts
00:13:01or even 10 lifetime starts like they used to even going back, you know, 15 years ago.
00:13:06So Justify proved that in the current environment where horses are so lightly raced, that if
00:13:13the horse is that good, he can pull this off.
00:13:16So again, I'm not saying he's Justify, but I'm not going to look at him in the Kentucky
00:13:20Derby as a handicapper and say, no, forget about it.
00:13:24Yeah.
00:13:25Could he run 17th?
00:13:26And could they look in the mirror and say, you know, this was just too ambitious?
00:13:29Yes, that's possible, but you certainly can't blame him for trying it.
00:13:32Well, John, I just I wanted to ask you, too, as an owner, because I think the worry isn't
00:13:36just that he's going to run up the track in the Kentucky Derby.
00:13:39The worry is that you might burn him out for the rest of his three year old year.
00:13:42What do you think?
00:13:44I think as an owner, if you're going to pony up one point seven million dollars for a horse,
00:13:49you have one goal in mind, and that's to win the Kentucky Derby.
00:13:52And the owner said it, and I understand his mindset, if you're going to put that much
00:13:56money into a horse, then the only way, the only way you can get out on it is if you win
00:14:02the Derby or Breeders' Cup.
00:14:04He's so close to the Derby right now, and everyone's got Derby fever that you can't
00:14:09you have to run.
00:14:10You have to run them in the race.
00:14:11And, you know, the nice thing about picking against the horse in the Kentucky Derby is
00:14:15that, you know, you have a one in 19 and 20 chance that you're probably going to be right
00:14:19because there's only going to be one winner.
00:14:20So there's a 5% chance that you'll be wrong.
00:14:22So a lot of people can point to this horse and say, he's going to bounce.
00:14:26He's not, you know, he had it his own way, the two races, you know, he trained in Santa
00:14:31Anita and ran in Santa Anita.
00:14:32Now he's got to go across country and he's got to train in a different place.
00:14:35And the spotlight's really going to be on him.
00:14:37And he's then going to be in the barn of Tim Yaktin really for a significant period of
00:14:42time before he runs.
00:14:43And does he do things differently?
00:14:45There's a lot of questions that need to be answered for a horse like this.
00:14:50And everything has gone, has broken the right way for him since he started.
00:14:55So yeah, you know, you can root against a horse like this in the sense that you don't
00:15:00want the big money to win.
00:15:02You don't want, you know, a Baffert-esque horse to win.
00:15:06There's a lot of reasons to root against him.
00:15:08And again, you'll have a 95% chance that you'll be right, that he won't win.
00:15:12As a fan of the industry and a podcaster, wouldn't you guys just love to see this horse
00:15:18win and see the owner standing there with the trophy as Churchill Downs has to begrudgingly
00:15:24hand him the trophy?
00:15:25And what do you think the post-race interview is going to be like?
00:15:28I mean, how awesome would that be?
00:15:29You talk about soundbites galore.
00:15:31We're not going to need to have any other stories for like three or five different podcasts
00:15:37after that.
00:15:38It's going to be fantastic.
00:15:39On the one hand, you know, as a traditionalist, I say it's going to be really hard for this
00:15:43horse to win the Kentucky Derby.
00:15:45But man, as somebody who loves the game and loves the intrigue, I would really, really
00:15:50like to see this horse hit the wire first.
00:15:52John, one thing I want to interject, you're going to be a little bit disappointed because
00:15:56Amir Zidane, you know, some people, if they would win the Kentucky Derby in his position,
00:16:02would just trash Churchill Downs and say, you know, na-na-na-na, I sure got even with
00:16:07you guys.
00:16:08He's determined to take the high road.
00:16:10So unfortunately, we want to see, you know, some mud slinging here, give us good fodder
00:16:16for future podcasts.
00:16:18But that's not the right thing to do.
00:16:20And he's figured that out.
00:16:21He's a classy guy.
00:16:23He really is.
00:16:24And, you know, talking to him yesterday, I mean, you know, obviously he'd want to, I
00:16:28mean, everybody wants to win the Kentucky Derby.
00:16:30He wants to win the Kentucky Derby times a hundred because he won it last year.
00:16:35But he's not going to wag his finger at anybody or do anything like that.
00:16:40I think he understands that probably wouldn't go over well, though we wish he would.
00:16:44Yeah.
00:16:45I mean, I don't know.
00:16:46He didn't want to gloat or wag his finger to you, Bill.
00:16:50But when he's in that winner's circle, I don't know.
00:16:53I would wager on the phrase cancel culture being uttered.
00:16:57At least once.
00:16:59If he wins that race, we'll see.
00:17:03The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:17:06We already talked a little bit about the Bluegrass, but it was an incredible weekend of racing
00:17:09at Keeneland last week.
00:17:10We're going to talk about some of the other performances after this break.
00:17:13And it's important to note that both the Ashland and the Bluegrass winner, Keeneland's September
00:17:17sales grad, Zanda, sold for $170,000 to Mike Ryan.
00:17:22And Nest was a $350,000 yearling for Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Ripoli Stable.
00:17:27So now we look forward to this coming week of racing, which will be highlighted by the
00:17:30Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile on Friday, big, big mile turf race for older horses.
00:17:36And the Grade 1 Coolmore, Jenny Wiley Stakes on Saturday, plus the Grade 3 Stone Street
00:17:41Lexington Stakes, which is the final points race towards the Kentucky Derby.
00:17:45And we are less than two weeks away from our live show from Keeneland, which is going to
00:17:50be April 26th.
00:17:51We cannot wait.
00:17:52I'll be down there for the weekend's racing beforehand.
00:17:55So give me a shout if you want to meet up and grab me a beer or something.
00:17:58Cannot wait for that Keeneland meet.
00:17:59It's been my first time at Keeneland, as I said last week.
00:18:02What, John?
00:18:03John's laughing at me because I'm already trying to get free drinks out of this.
00:18:05Well, yeah.
00:18:06It's not like Yankee Stadium where it's $15 for a beer.
00:18:08It'll be less.
00:18:09I'm sure you can afford it, Joe Bianca, Mr. Two Show Joe Bianca.
00:18:14That's OK.
00:18:15But if someone wants to buy me one, you know, I won't be bashful about it.
00:18:19But yeah, it's going to be great.
00:18:20So much great racing still to come.
00:18:22It's going to be hard to top opening week at Keeneland, but, you know, still plenty
00:18:25of stakes.
00:18:26Two-year-old races and lots.
00:18:27Today's card.
00:18:28If you're looking at today's card, it's just a Wednesday.
00:18:31It's a great, great card of racing with a lot of really nice three-year-olds and up
00:18:35and coming horses.
00:18:36So we're right in the thick of it now with this Keeneland meet.
00:18:38Looking forward to the rest of it.
00:18:39We'll be right back after this message from Keeneland.
00:18:44With all eyes on the bluegrass this spring, there's no better way to take in the action
00:18:48than Friday, April 29th at Keeneland.
00:18:53And they're off.
00:18:54We get into it with hip number one.
00:18:55Good luck.
00:18:56Featuring a day filled with world-class racing, followed by a unique sales experience in the
00:19:01evening.
00:19:02The April Horses of Racing Age Sale.
00:19:05After the races on closing day of the spring.
00:19:10Follow the action this April at Keeneland.
00:19:14Maximum security proves he's the real deal with a gate to wire win in the Florida Derby.
00:19:19Champion three-year-old.
00:19:20Maximum security has won the TBG.com Haskell Invitational.
00:19:2711 triple-digit buyers.
00:19:28Maximum security.
00:19:29He smoked them in the Cigar Mile.
00:19:30Grade one winning four-year-old.
00:19:31Maximum security takes them all the way in the TBG Pacific Classic.
00:19:32Secure your mayor's future.
00:19:33Maximum security.
00:19:34The TDN Writers' Room is brought to you by Coolmore.
00:19:35We say it every week.
00:19:36It was a big weekend for the Sires at Ashford Stud.
00:19:37First, we have to mention Golden Pal, who we're going to talk about a little bit by
00:19:38Uncle Mo and his impressive win in the Grade 2 Shaker Town Stakes.
00:19:39Oh, my goodness.
00:19:40I mean, look at that.
00:19:41I mean, look at that.
00:19:42I mean, look at that.
00:19:43I mean, look at that.
00:19:44I mean, look at that.
00:19:45I mean, look at that.
00:19:46I mean, look at that.
00:19:47I mean, look at that.
00:19:48I mean, look at that.
00:19:49I mean, look at that.
00:19:50I mean, look at that.
00:19:51I mean, look at that.
00:19:52I mean, look at that.
00:19:53I mean, look at that.
00:19:54I mean, look at that.
00:19:55I mean, look at that.
00:19:56I mean, look at that.
00:19:57I mean, look at that.
00:19:58I mean, look at that.
00:19:59I mean, look at that.
00:20:00I mean, look at that.
00:20:01I mean, look at that.
00:20:02I mean, look at that.
00:20:03I mean, look at that.
00:20:04I mean, look at that.
00:20:05I mean, look at that.
00:20:06I mean, look at that.
00:20:07I mean, look at that.
00:20:08I mean, look at that.
00:20:09I mean, look at that.
00:20:10I mean, look at that.
00:20:11I mean, look at that.
00:20:12I mean, look at that.
00:20:13I mean, look at that.
00:20:14I mean, look at that.
00:20:15I mean, look at that.
00:20:16I mean, look at that.
00:20:17I mean, look at that.
00:20:18I mean, look at that.
00:20:19I mean, look at that.
00:20:20I mean, look at that.
00:20:21I mean, look at that.
00:20:22I mean, look at that.
00:20:23I mean, look at that.
00:20:24I mean, look at that.
00:20:25I mean, look at that.
00:20:26I mean, look at that.
00:20:27I mean, look at that.
00:20:28I mean, look at that.
00:20:29I mean, look at that.
00:20:30I mean, look at that.
00:20:31I mean, look at that.
00:20:32I mean, look at that.
00:20:33I mean, look at that.
00:20:34I mean, look at that.
00:20:36I don't know.
00:20:37He took the blue pill, I guess.
00:20:38Which is the one?
00:20:39Which is the bad one?
00:20:40So Bill's had technical difficulties, so we may or may not get him back later on the show.
00:20:46Probably not.
00:20:47So it's going to be just John and us taking you the rest of the way.
00:20:49And it was such a good weekend of racing that I feel like we had to create a second segment
00:20:53for it beyond just the three-year-olds.
00:20:55You know, he had Nest winning.
00:20:57The Ashland was so impressive in the Ashland.
00:21:00Had that wide trip and just exploded away in the stretch.
00:21:03And then the other two horses on the undercard races that, you know, I think are just going
00:21:08to have incredible years are already off to great starts are Golden Pal and Speaker's Corner.
00:21:12You know, I've been on the Speaker's Corner bandwagon for a little bit.
00:21:15I thought his race in the Gulfstream Mile was a real breakout performance.
00:21:18He backed that up with an incredible run in the Carter.
00:21:21Got a 114 buyer.
00:21:23It seems like these one-turn horses are just popping out, these 110-plus buyers these days,
00:21:28you know, faster and with more frequency than I ever remember.
00:21:32And obviously Golden Pal setting that crazy pace in the Shaker Town and still ran away in the stretch.
00:21:38John, some of those horses had to blow you away, no?
00:21:41You know, you start with Speaker's Corner.
00:21:43I mean, here's a horse that as a four-year-old has really found his groove.
00:21:46He's undefeated this year.
00:21:48He, you know, won the Carter Handicap Grade 1.
00:21:51He won the Gulfstream Mile and the Fred Hooper, respectively.
00:21:55And, you know, Joe, really the only bad race that he's had in his career was he ran kind of a really,
00:22:01you know, lackluster race in the Pennsylvania Derby.
00:22:03And that was, you know, coming off a lifetime best 101 buyer sprinting in Saratoga.
00:22:09And I think maybe they just jumped him up a little too soon into the deeper waters.
00:22:13But ever since he's come back, he's run nine times in his career.
00:22:17He's got six wins a second and a third.
00:22:19And more importantly, he's just consistently improving.
00:22:22It seems like every time he steps foot on the racetrack, he blows through that glass ceiling of his previous best.
00:22:29So he's a horse that's got a tremendous future.
00:22:31You've got to figure, you know, at a street sense, out of a Bernardini mare, you know, it's right up Goldolphin's, you know, magical formula.
00:22:39And this is a horse that maybe this year's the 2022 Knicks go, where a horse that just goes to the front and leaves everyone else behind.
00:22:49And they'd be curious to see if he can stretch it out a little bit more, if we're going to keep him going, you know, the one-turn mile or a two-turn mile.
00:22:56But he is just dominating that division.
00:22:59And it's not an easy division to be involved with.
00:23:02And if it wasn't for Speaker's Corner, the race that I'd be talking about right now is Golden Path.
00:23:07Because here's a horse that seems like every time he steps foot on the racetrack, which is unfortunately infrequently, you know, he just he breaks through another phenomenal barrier and sets up and does well.
00:23:18He won that last race at Keeneland with a 109 buyer, 109 buyer.
00:23:23And that division of the turf sprinters, you know, a lot of horses in that in that field, in the Breeders' Cup field last year are no longer racing.
00:23:31Either they retired a stud or they got injured.
00:23:33And Primus is the most recent one that looks like he's going to have a career-ending injury for Joe Orsino and Breezeezy.
00:23:39And now he's going to be retired permanently.
00:23:42So Golden Pal is going to be, you know, really having an opportunity to pick his spots.
00:23:47And I know after the race, it wasn't just, you know, I wasn't the only one who was so impressed with him.
00:23:52His trainer, Wesley Ward, was speechless.
00:23:54And for Wesley to be speechless, it's really an unusual situation.
00:23:57But they interviewed him right after the horse hit the wire.
00:24:00And he was he was like, I don't even understand what I just saw.
00:24:04This horse has just been so impressive and such a treat to train.
00:24:07And I'm paraphrasing a little bit.
00:24:09But it sounds to me, Joe, like they're going to bring Golden Pal overseas and run him at Royal Ascot and take on the best turf sprinters there.
00:24:17And I think for the, you know, for this Uncle Mote Colt, it's game on.
00:24:22Yeah. And I just there's also a plan to run him in Australia before he retires.
00:24:26So he's got to have a lot on his plate the rest of the year.
00:24:29And we can't wait to see him in general.
00:24:32I don't love the American horses going over to Royal Ascot.
00:24:35Like I love it from a sporting perspective.
00:24:37But in terms of like their chances in betting them, I don't love them.
00:24:40Find me a better five furlong turf horse in the world than Golden Pal right now.
00:24:45I think you'd be hard pressed to find a horse who's going to beat him in the Kingstan, which is where he's going next.
00:24:50And he's just so fast and just explodes out of the gate.
00:24:54And, you know, it's a little different from the Del Mar race to what happened this past weekend, because the Del Mar race was five furlongs.
00:25:00Like John said, it wasn't the greatest turf sprint field in the world.
00:25:03Just got out of the gate and just ran them off their feet.
00:25:06Different doing it on a deeper turf course going five and a half furlongs at Keeneland and to go 20 and four and to keep going like he did was just unbelievable.
00:25:16And just going back to Speaker's Corner for a second, man, if we can ever get him flight line and life is good.
00:25:23Can I interest you in that threesome in the Met Mile?
00:25:26Because I don't know that we've seen three better one turn horses at once, at least in my lifetime following racing.
00:25:32I think that those three are probably the best three horses in training right now.
00:25:36And it just so happens that they're probably all better around a mile.
00:25:39So I'm just looking forward to seeing them clash later in the year.
00:25:42And it's it was great not just to see the big three year old performances, but to see those other horses that you can get excited about.
00:25:49Some of the older horses, because, you know, it's just it's just a typical refrain in racing where you don't get to see superstars that get retired too early.
00:25:57These are two horses that you're going to see unless they get hurt the rest of the year, do some really, really special things.
00:26:03I think. Allow me to reintroduce himself.
00:26:06His name is Bill Finn to the league.
00:26:09Welcome back, Bill. Oh, well, it's good to be back.
00:26:12Some little computer glitches and everything. But here I am.
00:26:15So what else? Other than the three year old races from the weekend, what were you most impressed by?
00:26:19Well, everything you guys said, I guess.
00:26:22I don't know what you said, so I don't know what to add to it.
00:26:25I caught the last a couple of words about Golden Pal and Speaker's Corner.
00:26:30And I absolutely agree with with everything you had to say.
00:26:33Two fantastic performances. I don't know how much you touched upon the three year old fillies, which I've been watching because I do the top 10 for the Kentucky for the TDN.
00:26:43But, you know, we talk about how good these horses are.
00:26:46And in the Ashland nest on the Friday before the bluegrass was just absolutely terrific.
00:26:52But again, she's only she's at least six to one in the Kentucky Oaks because it's such a deep race.
00:26:58Another horse that emerged from the Kentucky Oaks. I was nostalgic in the gazelle was kind of an interesting horse.
00:27:04I'm very well bred, kind of didn't get her act together until just recently for trainer Bill Mott.
00:27:09Again, you know, in some Kentucky Oaks, she or she would be four to one to be 12 to one.
00:27:14But, you know, an absolutely very good race.
00:27:17One other thing about Golden Pal, I don't know if you mentioned, but about their future plans, very ambitious.
00:27:23They're still talking about going over to Australia with him, which would be fascinating.
00:27:27And Wesley Ward told me a few weeks back that they're interested perhaps in running him on the dirt at some point this year, just because, you know, there's you have nothing to lose.
00:27:38But if he wins a dirt sprint race, that makes him even that much more attractive as a sire prospect.
00:27:44So it looks like they're intent on having a lot of fun with him this year.
00:27:47And, yeah, he's a real exciting horse. Just he's as fast as fast can be.
00:27:52He ran second in his one dirt race. And I always I love that.
00:27:56He's just like Lady Shipman, because I loved Lady Shipman as a turf sprinter.
00:28:00And she was just like him, just blasted out of the gate, had great speed.
00:28:04So it's fun to see him kind of emulating her characteristics.
00:28:08There's one other one other horse I wanted to mention from the weekend from from Friday, actually, from the Transylvania stakes horse that I gave out on the show.
00:28:17Side dog. I think we have a picture of him and we can put up. No, no, no, no, no.
00:28:22That's side. That's my dog side. We need we need the horse.
00:28:26Guys, something to get fired for this. We need the horses picture up.
00:28:29There we go. That's that side dog.
00:28:32So maybe maybe just John, he said off the air, needs to start naming his horses after my dog.
00:28:38So I don't quite enjoy it pretty well.
00:28:41But side dog was was just too ferocious in that race.
00:28:44So it was it was a phenomenal, phenomenal weekend of racing.
00:28:47And, you know, it's always good to break it down with you guys.
00:28:51The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by Lane Zen. Lane Zen Stallion of the week.
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00:30:59So we're thrilled to bring back onto the show this week,
00:31:01the chairman and CEO of the Thoroughbred Horseman's Association, Alan Foreman.
00:31:05Thanks so much for coming back.
00:31:07Gentlemen, thank you. It's a pleasure to be back.
00:31:09Great to have you. Looking forward to a good conversation.
00:31:12So we'll start off with the return of the Match Series.
00:31:14The Match Series starts this weekend.
00:31:17It was a popular program in like the late 90s for people who don't know,
00:31:20and then it went away for a while, came back in 2018 and 19,
00:31:23and then missed one year because of COVID, came back again last year.
00:31:26What's been the reaction like from the horsemen, from the bettors, from the tracks?
00:31:30And what are you looking forward to this year?
00:31:32It's all been great. It's hard to believe I started this 25 years ago.
00:31:36And the industry was different then. The environment was different.
00:31:40We started differently. And what we tried to do was just take a new event for racing,
00:31:45brand it, try to bring the region together.
00:31:49You know, the Mid-Atlantic is the largest concentration of racing in the United States on a daily basis,
00:31:54particularly in the summertime.
00:31:56We thought we could put a competition together in various divisions
00:31:59and try to identify the best horses in the region.
00:32:02And we branded it. We had our own logo. We started a website.
00:32:06Back then, there was no social media presence, let alone how you market today.
00:32:12And we were doing a lot through industry publications, the Daily Racing Forum and the like.
00:32:19But it caught fire. And back then, Grand Motion won the first match series,
00:32:24the beginning of Graham's great career.
00:32:27Sam Huff, the great Hall of Fame football player who passed away recently,
00:32:33one of his great achievements in racing, always said was winning the match series.
00:32:36He won it the second year. And we ran for five years, as you indicated.
00:32:40And then, as is typical in the industry, infighting, other circumstances caused us to, you know,
00:32:46cease the series. But horsemen kept asking to bring it back.
00:32:50And when we started working together in the region on health, safety and welfare reforms
00:32:57and coming out of the crisis at Aqueduct in 2011, 2012, the conversation in the region started about,
00:33:04well, if we're going to be working on health and welfare reforms and other things to achieve uniformity,
00:33:10why not bring the series back? I mean, the catalyst was the horsemen.
00:33:13They really loved it. They missed the series. But this is not an easy undertaking.
00:33:18You need track cooperation. You need funding from horsemen's organizations for the bonuses.
00:33:23You need the tracks to contribute money for marketing. It's a large undertaking.
00:33:28You have to coordinate schedules. We brought it back, as you indicated, in 2018 to great success.
00:33:34And then we decided in 2019 to try big event days.
00:33:38Let's group the races at each track and create a big event day for each of the tracks.
00:33:43Tremendously successful. We put together a great schedule for 2020.
00:33:49And COVID hit, decimated the series. We brought it back last year, but only two tracks really were even in a position to do it.
00:33:58So Maryland and Colonial did a placeholder series last year.
00:34:02And now we're back this year and we've got Maryland Jockey Club tracks, Laurel.
00:34:08We're going to be at Parks, Penn Gaming and Colonial.
00:34:12And we've got a great series that will spread over just a little under six months.
00:34:18Twenty races, five races and four divisions each.
00:34:22And the horsemen will be running for $2.2 million in purse money and over $400,000 in bonuses.
00:34:29And they love it. And the betters love it. We've seen handle increases every year.
00:34:35I think they look forward to it. And the fact that we are just trying to market and promote the sport,
00:34:40which there isn't a lot of right now, just just speaks to the benefits of it.
00:34:44And look, we do what we can to hold it together. It's not easy.
00:34:48Alan, I want you to continue on that pathway about it, quote unquote, not being easy.
00:34:54I notice there's no New Jersey in this year and no Delaware Park in this year.
00:34:57How hard is it in an industry that was notorious for people not getting along and being dysfunctional?
00:35:04I mean, it's not just you. You know, you need to get the approval and cooperation of, as you said,
00:35:09several horsemen's groups, racing commissions, different racetracks.
00:35:12At the end of the day, do you ever feel like pulling your hair out?
00:35:16Well, you have to be patient and you have to just stay at the table and you have to be willing to accept setbacks.
00:35:22And you try to work your way through it. I have a great team, by the way.
00:35:26David Richardson, Maryland Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association.
00:35:29Tom O'Mara works with us and great support from the horsemen's organizations.
00:35:33But at the end of the day, it's about selecting the appropriate divisions that you think will be best supported by the horsemen based on the existing horse population,
00:35:42which has been shrinking, identifying those divisions and then grouping the races together.
00:35:48One of the understandings that we have in the in the series itself is don't compete against your fellow racetracks
00:35:56when you're trying to get the horses to work through the series.
00:36:00That presented a problem for Monmouth Park, which has the unique problem of not only trying to salvage and promote their very strong stakes program,
00:36:08but they're competing against the Naira tracks.
00:36:11And so it's not as easy for them to cooperate with the other tracks in the region when they have to schedule their races.
00:36:17And that was certainly one of the impediments this year.
00:36:21Delaware Park has new ownership and their focus is on their Delaware certified program.
00:36:26They want to put money into their own program. And so they just decided to sit it out this year.
00:36:31Fortunately, with the strong support of the horsemen in Pennsylvania, in Virginia and Maryland,
00:36:37we were able to hold the series together, but not only hold it together, but I think we've put a pretty good schedule together.
00:36:42And I think it's going to, you know, even when we had just two states last year, two tracks, it was very, very successful.
00:36:50So people identify with the series. It's an opportunity for the horsemen in the region to get into the series and try to earn bonus money and feel like, you know,
00:36:59the whole point of this was for owners and trainers to feel like they're participating in a Breeders' Cup or Triple Crown type event that would get them invested throughout the summer.
00:37:09And it's just an incentive for owners to want to be in the business, enjoy the business.
00:37:15And we've seen that in every one of the events.
00:37:19And now you referenced the stake races. And just for the audience that doesn't know, each stake race in the series at a minimum is $100,000,
00:37:28with some of the stake races being up to $150,000. That's just purse money only.
00:37:33And the distances range in the turf route races from a mile, mile 16 to mile and an eighth,
00:37:40and for the sprint divisions from six to seven furlongs with a couple of six and a half furlong races in between.
00:37:46Are there other divisions that you think would, you know, add value to this match series?
00:37:52Are you looking to expand it to two year olds or anything or any other population of horses?
00:37:58Well, a lot of it's driven by available money. I mean, we don't want to spread too thin.
00:38:02We want there to be value and we want there to be impetus to want to participate in the series.
00:38:07So we don't want to water it down. And the more you add divisions, at least from the bonus money standpoint, it reduces the amount of available bonus money.
00:38:14Remember, I've only got four horsemen's organizations, five that are participating this year, and they really have stepped up.
00:38:23And the tracks have to be willing to commit marketing dollars to do this. That's not easy in today's world.
00:38:28So, you know, interestingly, when we started the series in 1997, we were running all graded stakes races.
00:38:36I mean, this was a high end series and I did it pattern after the American Championship Racing Series that had failed.
00:38:44And I thought, well, why can't we take that series and why can't we group a bunch of divisions together and do something that is very similar,
00:38:52but would spark greater interest within the region and perhaps nationally? And that's what happened.
00:38:58When the environment changed, when the industry changed, we started talking about, you know, let's really do this for the Mid-Atlantic horses,
00:39:06not horses that are going to come into the series, go to Saratoga, you know, go to Breeders' Cup and are really looking just to find races to work their way into Saratoga or bigger events.
00:39:18And so we put a minimum floor of $100,000 for every race, which is still pretty darn good.
00:39:25And to the horsemen's organizations and track's credit, to the extent there wasn't a stakes race, they created one.
00:39:33And it just it gets sizzled to the program when the horses come out on the track and they're wearing the Match Series saddleclaws and the grooms are all coming over,
00:39:44the hot walkers with Match Series hat logos and everything is branded.
00:39:49It just has a different feel about it. And you can just tell them the reaction to the fans when they're there.
00:39:54And we see it in the wagering patterns.
00:39:57Yeah, and it's honestly for that region, especially, I think it's so valuable because I think it's we've talked about this on the show.
00:40:03There are so many tracks in a relatively small part of the country that there can be a lot of overlap and a lot of redundancy.
00:40:09So I think that that's especially in this region is very helpful.
00:40:12And just for anybody who wants to check it out, the first race is this Saturday.
00:40:16If I'm correct, the Frank Whiteley Stakes, which is the three year old and up sprint division in the Match Series, that'll be at Laurel this Saturday.
00:40:23I just wanted to shift gears a little bit because we had you on, if you remember, right after the Medina Spirit Beta Methazone Positive came out last year,
00:40:31which feels like a lifetime ago, honestly, with all the stuff that's happened since then.
00:40:35But we had you on as you put on your legal expert hat and kind of predict what would happen going forward.
00:40:41I feel like even you could not have imagined all of the processes and appeals and stuff that has gone on since then between Bob Baffert,
00:40:48Naira and Churchill and the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.
00:40:51What's your reaction over the past year?
00:40:53And we finally got to a conclusion with this 90 day suspension.
00:40:56But what's your reaction from all this legal back and forth?
00:40:59Well, Joe, it certainly highlighted what people wanted to see changed about the industry.
00:41:05I mean, when we talk about HISA and we talk about the manner in which our rules are adjudicated,
00:41:12it isn't so much that our underlying rules are problematic.
00:41:17It's just the enforcement process and the way that justice is meted out and the way people can game the system and otherwise.
00:41:23And this is a textbook example. You know, the public doesn't understand the difference between the actions that racetracks take and the actions,
00:41:32the regulatory actions that racing commissions take.
00:41:35This is a regulated business and the underlying disciplinary action for any trainer who has a violent medication violation is done by racing commissions.
00:41:46Tracks have their own private property, common law private property rights, with the exception of Naira.
00:41:53But and so in this instance, Churchill exercised its private property rights.
00:41:59There's a lot of confusion in the public as to how those two intersect.
00:42:03But Churchill took an action separate and apart from whatever the racing commission was going to do.
00:42:09At the end of the day, I think that this this all went downhill when Bob had his press conference today after the Derby.
00:42:16You know, the rumor was around that there had been a positive test of the Derby.
00:42:20There was no confidentiality and he actually got in front of the story.
00:42:24But when he came out and said he had no idea how it could have happened.
00:42:28And within five days, the story came out as to how it happened.
00:42:31It was boxed into a corner. And, you know, unless he wanted to accept responsibility and take the punishment,
00:42:39which was a historic loss of the Kentucky Derby and everything attendant with that, he wasn't prepared to do it.
00:42:46And so this has played out in a in a sense where there's been really no exit strategy on either side, quite frankly.
00:42:56And it's been forced to play out, which is what it's done.
00:42:59I think Churchill, by taking the action it did and making very clear that it wasn't backing down,
00:43:05I think started to press the Kentucky Racing Commission to to move more expeditiously, which obviously here we are now.
00:43:13But it just took way too long. That's not acceptable to anybody.
00:43:19Switching gears again, one of the things that you've accomplished in recent years was you were a major player in the idea that the Maryland racetracks would be redeveloped,
00:43:28which settled all the problems with whether or not the Preakness would leave Baltimore or not.
00:43:33It's been quite some time since the the bill or the legislation went through to put forth all this money to completely rebuild Pembroke and to do much the same with Laurel.
00:43:43But not only has there been no shovel hitting the ground, we don't even hear anything about this.
00:43:47So, you know, this is a very exciting development for the future of not just Maryland racing, but racing in general,
00:43:53you know, to have a state of the art Pembroke to replace what is right now is a terrible facility.
00:43:58Where do things stand and why hasn't there been more progress on this?
00:44:02Well, it's a great question. And I'm about to tell you that there has been progress and some pretty significant progress.
00:44:08But in order to understand that, let me just give you 30 seconds of background.
00:44:12Three years ago at this time, the Strana Group had pretty much threatened to move the Preakness from Pembroke to Laurel and they were seeking to build a super track at Laurel.
00:44:22It angered the legislative leadership in the state and it angered, extremely angered the city of Baltimore.
00:44:28And the city of Baltimore instituted a lawsuit against the Strana Group to eminent domain Pembroke and the Preakness.
00:44:36Not long after I was asked on behalf of the racing industry to represent, I was not asked by the racing industry.
00:44:43I was asked by the powers that be to represent the industry in very high level confidential negotiations on a possible settlement of that lawsuit.
00:44:53And the upshot of the three months, four months of work that we did was the concept plan that was approved by the General Assembly that would redevelop the Pembroke property
00:45:04with a new clubhouse at Pembroke. But the Strana Group would only conduct a short meet for the Preakness at Pembroke.
00:45:12And that property would be a redeveloped property during the remainder of the year.
00:45:17And that racing in Maryland would essentially consolidate at Laurel Park, which needed substantial upgrades and renovation.
00:45:25We estimated that our plan would cost three hundred and seventy five million dollars.
00:45:29The finance through the sale of bonds by the Maryland Stadium Authority, which is world renowned at Camden Yards,
00:45:36which was 30 years old yesterday, was built by the Maryland Stadium Authority.
00:45:40And I think still stands as one of the great stadiums in any sport.
00:45:45And so the stadium authority takes over. First, we get hit with COVID.
00:45:51We have design issues, particularly with respect to what our concept plan at Laurel was and what needed to change.
00:45:59So potential supply chain issues and the project has gotten over budget.
00:46:04And so we went back to legislative leadership with the stadium authority in the session that ended yesterday.
00:46:11And the result is money has been allocated from the capital budget for certain portions of the project, extra housing, demolition, et cetera.
00:46:21The Maryland, there is a significant tax issue that nobody has heard or talked about that involves the Laurel property.
00:46:29And it involves a capital gains tax. I hate to get in the weeds, but it's critical.
00:46:34There is a capital gains tax that attaches to improvements that are made to public arenas like or public spaces like Laurel to the owner of that facility, which is in this case, the strata group.
00:46:46It's a massive capital gains tax. It is an impediment to this plan going forward.
00:46:51And the only way around that tax problem is to convey the property to the state, to the local government or a not for profit entity,
00:47:00none of which the state doesn't want to acquire the racetracks, the local county doesn't.
00:47:05And so it begs the question of a local of a 501 C3 or a tax exempt organization doing that.
00:47:12The Maryland Economic Development Corporation has been authorized to appraise the Laurel property and to investigate the feasibility of the acquisition of the Laurel property
00:47:27by either a government entity or a private entity that we would set up.
00:47:33And we are undertaking negotiations with the strata group on not only what would involve the acquisition of Laurel, but future operations.
00:47:43Our 10 year agreement expires this year that's governed our relationship with the strata group for the past 10 years.
00:47:49And so that's all part and parcel of this deal. And those reports and those analysis have to be done by September 30th.
00:47:56And the Stadium Authority is charged with coming back to the legislature by January 1 of next year with a final plan for both Laurel and Pimlico.
00:48:06But with respect to Pimlico, the legislative leadership insists that Pimlico go first and not Laurel and that we move as quickly as possible to get Laurel to get Pimlico started.
00:48:18So I think you can expect sometime after January 1 of 2023 for that portion of Pimlico, the old grandstand that has been condemned to hit the record's ball sometime after the first of the year to begin the construction at Pimlico.
00:48:35And we need to finalize, which is very complicated, by the way, extraordinarily complicated, the plan at Laurel.
00:48:42I would just add that there is no playbook for this. No project of this kind, particularly in horse racing, has ever been undertaken.
00:48:51So we have no book to follow, no anything. And we're feeling our way through this as we can.
00:48:58I think the delays, at least in the politicians' eyes, are a little bit unacceptable.
00:49:03And so we are now accelerating to move that program forward.
00:49:06There is design work that needs to be done, infrastructure work, and you should not anticipate construction before January 1 of 2023.
00:49:15But on that schedule, Pimlico would be finished in time for the 2026 Preakness, and Laurel substantially will be completed by then.
00:49:25But a clubhouse at Laurel probably wouldn't be completed until 2027, 2028.
00:49:31In the meantime, it's anticipated that the Preakness will still always run at Pimlico, even during construction.
00:49:39And that was, that was, but thank you for pulling back the curtain, because so many of us, you know, are so anxious and chomping at the bit for, you know, for this renovation to go through.
00:49:49But it makes more sense. There's always legal and tax implications whenever you get a project of this magnitude.
00:49:55Alan, you know, you've been so successful with the Match Series, with your work as the chairman of the Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association.
00:50:02I know I've worked with you with NYTHA and NIRA and just been amazed at what you've accomplished.
00:50:07If you could be Zahra of Racing for a day, what would you wave your magic wand and fix?
00:50:14Well, I think those things that I would fix are being fixed.
00:50:18Look, I'm a health, safety and welfare guy.
00:50:21You know, I got into that when I worked with Scott Palmer and Mary Scully and Jerry Bailey when they had the fatalities at Aqueduct in 2011, 2012.
00:50:32And that drives everything. I know that a lot of people talk about our medication scandals and Bob Baffert and everything that's consumed the industry over the past year.
00:50:41But horses dying on the racetrack is our single biggest problem.
00:50:44OK, and if we don't solve that problem or manage it and manage it well, you know, our future is not great.
00:50:51So I am, you know, the expansion of the Horse Racing Integrity Act to include a safety program is the most important thing that happened.
00:51:00It's why it got our support. And I think it is the most important part of the Heiser program.
00:51:06OK, so I'm happy with that. I, you know, it is very difficult to market our sport today with the vast competition we have.
00:51:15I know a lot of people think that sports betting is going to be the panacea.
00:51:19I'm not I'm not invested in that at all.
00:51:23But, you know, it's it's harder and harder to get everyone to work together because a lot of jurisdictions are in survival mode or they have become so dependent on gaming for their futures that we're in such a vastly different place than we are.
00:51:43So for me personally, Zara Racing, no Zara Racing is going to accomplish anything.
00:51:50The single biggest thing is the uniformity that I think Heiser is going to bring.
00:51:55And then, you know, we've got to do everything we can to to get racing to continue to be as popular as it really is.
00:52:06I mean, it really is kind of a little niche business that is, you know, I know the revenues are down, but revenues are down in baseball.
00:52:13Revenues are down in every sport. Viewership is down in every sport.
00:52:17And, you know, we accept that. But, you know, I go to tracks and I see lots of people and I see people having fun and I see people on their on their devices embracing racing.
00:52:30And I, you know, I am I'm very comfortable with that as far as I'm concerned.
00:52:36I think the Maryland what is potentially going to happen in Maryland, including its future operations, could set a different tone for the industry going forward and could help to invigorate the industry.
00:52:49So I'm really bullish on that.
00:52:51Well, can you expand on that? What do you mean by that?
00:52:54Well, I look in my view, look, we don't we don't have gaming in Maryland.
00:53:01We we have been able to survive over the past decade when we were at death's door by going into partnership with the strata group.
00:53:11Essentially, we we helped to fund the operations and still to maintain year round racing, which you don't see in a lot of states.
00:53:18You see boutique meets and we've been able to maintain a very good structure.
00:53:23And it's a great, great place for horsemen to be. But the reality is that the strata group wanted to get out of the business in Maryland tomorrow.
00:53:30I don't think there's an operator in the country that would be interested in coming into the industry as it's structured in this state.
00:53:37And so we are we have the opportunity now through this redevelopment plan and what the legislature is asking us to look at to imagine what the future could look like with a redesigned industry.
00:53:51And that goes to the way we operate. And so we're going to explore the various opportunities to do that so that we can preserve our business for the 30 years that the bonds are going to finance these projects and beyond.
00:54:06Racing is part of the heritage and culture of the state. And I've been very clear with the governor and legislative leadership that if you don't support what we're doing here, you're going to lose a very valuable industry to this state.
00:54:18And I think everyone's invested in. So I think we have a unique opportunity also to embrace new technologies.
00:54:26And there have been discussions about that, that we could be the lab experiment for new technologies.
00:54:31And we're going to be looking at that with experts over the next three, four or five months.
00:54:35So, you know, stay tuned for Maryland, because I think really good things are coming down the pike.
00:54:41Alan, you mentioned sports betting, and I agree with you. I don't think it's a panacea for racing.
00:54:46I think, matter of fact, in my opinion, it could be anything. But but there's so much talk now about, well, if we better if you can't beat them, join them.
00:54:54Go into fixed odds wagering. Let a guy go on FanDuel and bet the Knicks plus three and also the seventh race at Laurel.
00:55:02Is that the answer? And do you think that 10 years from now, fixed odds betting is going to be a big part of the way people wager on horse racing?
00:55:10Well, you know, historically, fixed odds wagering was not really something that was very popular in this country.
00:55:15And I remember Dennis Grace had started exchange wagering at Monmouth and it didn't produce any any revenue.
00:55:23That was kind of the forerunner for this. You know, I have a different view on fixed odds than I did from a regulatory perspective.
00:55:31We were always concerned about the integrity of the race. And when you go to fixed odds wagering, can you really protect the integrity of the race?
00:55:38But now we're getting into a sports betting environment where, you know, the NBA isn't regulated.
00:55:46You know, college basketball is not regulated.
00:55:50The NFL is not regulated to the extent that we are. And I don't think anybody's looked at that aspect of it.
00:55:56So fixed odds wagering certainly introduces an integrity issue.
00:56:01But I think that and from all the experts I've talked to, you know, if you don't embrace fixed odds wagering, you've really got no chance going forward because there is an appetite for it.
00:56:13And it does provide an opportunity for those who may not understand the daily racing form, who may not understand that we're based, who find our sport too difficult to embrace, that there is an opportunity here.
00:56:26And, you know, in our sports betting law in Maryland, we protected ourselves that you cannot conduct fixed odds wagering in Maryland without the approval of the horsemen, breeders and the racing commission.
00:56:38So we left the door open, but it's got to be on our terms.
00:56:42So we'll see. But I think we're moving in that direction.
00:56:48I do. Are the numbers going to be big? I don't know.
00:56:53I just don't know. But I think you have to do it. I think you have to be competitive in this marketplace.
00:56:59Well, this is the last question for me. Another thing that racing has to do is get everything unified.
00:57:03And you guys, the THA, have stood out by being in support of HISA.
00:57:08There are a lot of horsemen's groups that have sued to try to stop it from coming into effect.
00:57:12You guys have always been on board. Unfortunately, the USADA aspect of it and them taking control of the drug policy broke down, as people know.
00:57:21So this is kind of a two part question for me. One, you know, you don't have to divulge specifics, but why do you think that that those negotiations broke down?
00:57:28And two, you said something interesting before about how the safety protocols are still just as important.
00:57:33Can you be specific on that? So the USADA program relates to medication.
00:57:38Let's say the HISA anti-doping and medication control program relates to medication.
00:57:44The safety program relates to every other aspect of the health, safety and welfare of the horse and rider.
00:57:51And that, as I said before, relates to what I think is the most important part of the HISA program, because horses that are breaking down on the racetrack are our worst nightmare.
00:58:03Horses aren't dying on the racetrack because of medication.
00:58:09When horses break down on the racetrack, it's multifactorial.
00:58:13For example, we just did our review of the breakdowns in the mid-Atlantic region for the past year.
00:58:20Maryland was having its lowest incidence of breakdown in its history until the track went bad and the track failed at Laurel in October.
00:58:29And we had a cluster of eight breakdowns in the span of three weeks. We got right on it, but it blew the numbers.
00:58:35OK, so there was a racetrack surface issue, not a medication issue, not a training issue, not an issue of horses with pre-existing injuries that were being put on the racetrack.
00:58:45And the value of that safety program is to work with everyone on racing surfaces, on identifying horses at risk so they don't get the track when they shouldn't be, and everything that's attended with that.
00:59:01With respect to medication, you know, the rub with the Horse Racing Integrity Act was that USADA would come in and run the anti-doping program for the industry.
00:59:12They would have been in charge. And there was substantial opposition to that in a lot of places.
00:59:18And so when the Horse Racing Integrity Act was modified, it allowed the authority that's been created to contract with a third party to run their anti-doping program, not USADA's anti-doping program.
00:59:33So I think it broke down for, I think, for three reasons. Number one, USADA came out with its program independent of HISA and marketed its program to, in my view, force the authority to enter into a contract with them.
00:59:48It didn't give the authority the option of trying to find the best vendor to provide that service. Number one. Number two, they released their proposed rules that were available to everyone.
00:59:59I'm assuming maybe you all looked at it. If you could figure them out, if you could understand them, if you could, because they were taking the rules from human sport and superimposing it into racing, which you cannot do.
01:00:12And if you can tell me that their rules were better than what we currently have, you know, I beg to differ with you because there's nothing wrong with our regulations.
01:00:23It's the enforcement and consistency and uniformity of our regulations that hides itself. And then the third thing is cost.
01:00:31I mean, I don't know directly, but I heard that the USADA program would have been crippling from an economic standpoint, both the racetracks and horse meat.
01:00:39And so I think the authority did the right thing. They, under the law, were not required, as some groups are saying, they were not required to contract with USADA.
01:00:49And they have now gone out into the marketplace and I think they're still talking to them.
01:00:54And I saw yesterday Lisa Lazarus, who, by the way, is terrific.
01:00:59She announced that they probably will be making an announcement, I assume it's going to come right around the derby, of who their vendor is going to be to complement the anti-doping program.
01:01:10And that's a work in progress. That program has been delayed to January 1. So the safety program is going into effect on July 1.
01:01:19The anti-doping program is delayed until January 1, 2023.
01:01:24Well, it's good to hear that the wheels are in motion from you. And that's another one of the reasons we like having you on the show is you're privy to these kind of things.
01:01:30And every track and every jurisdiction could use an advocate like you, Alan Foreman.
01:01:35Thank you so much for coming on the show. Don't forget, the Match Series starts this Saturday with the Frank Whiteley Steaks at Laurel. Alan, good to talk to you, man.
01:01:42Thank you. Thanks, Alan.
01:01:44I appreciate it.
01:01:46The Green Group Guest of the Week is sponsored by The Green Group, an accounting, tax consulting and advisory firm specializing in the thoroughbred industry.
01:01:52As this week's Green Group Guest of the Week, Alan Foreman will receive a free one-hour tax consultation.
01:01:57Learn more at GreenCo.com. We'll be right back after this message from The Green Group.
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01:02:57The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by XBTV.
01:03:11The XBTV Workout of the Week this week is Edgeway, who is the best of 22 5'4 long workers on Monday at Santa Anita going in 59.25 seconds, which you can see right now if you're watching the video version of this podcast,
01:03:24which you should always be doing.
01:03:26The John Sadler trainee ran second in last year's Breeders' Cup Philly in Maryspring.
01:03:30I gave her out in that race, if you remember.
01:03:32And this year has reeled off two straight victories in the Caloocan Queen Stakes, one of my favorite named stakes in the country, and the Grade 3 Las Flores Stakes.
01:03:40So we're looking forward to her campaign the rest of the year.
01:03:43Might think about something like maybe the La Trojan if you want to stretch her out.
01:03:47But if not, probably pointing towards the ballerina later this summer at Saratoga.
01:03:51So if you want to see all of the derby workers, all the Oaks workers, definitely go to XBTV.com.
01:03:58So there was there was an accident last week at Aqueduct with Julio Pazua, who is an exercise rider who had a horse had a cardiovascular incident and was injured.
01:04:08There was a GoFundMe page posted by Aaron Yagoda, who is a NYTHA board member.
01:04:13And Aaron is coming on right now to talk to us about the campaign.
01:04:16Welcome, Aaron.
01:04:17Thank you, Joe and John.
01:04:18How are you?
01:04:19Good.
01:04:20Good to have you on.
01:04:21And it's a great thing that you started for Julio.
01:04:23Can you just tell us a little bit about what happened, what he needs in terms of medical procedures and how the community has responded?
01:04:30Sure. It was April 3rd at Belmont Park.
01:04:33It was a training accident.
01:04:34The horse had a heart attack.
01:04:36Julio, unfortunately, landed on his head.
01:04:39The horse, which happened to be my horse, passed away.
01:04:41And Julio didn't have any feeling from the waist down on the track, but he was feeling his arms and they rushed him to the hospital.
01:04:49The next day he had surgery.
01:04:52He had two cervical fractures in his neck, and then he has a fracture in his spine.
01:04:58He now can move his feet, not strong enough to walk, and he can flop one arm around and one arm is not really working.
01:05:05So he's having really trouble now from the waist up.
01:05:08He just got moved last night to the Kessler Institute.
01:05:10He was at Winthrop Hospital until last night.
01:05:12I went to go see him, and they were in the middle of moving him to the Kessler Institute in West Orange.
01:05:17He has a long road of recovery for any partial paralysis he might have, or hopefully when the swelling goes down, maybe he'll regain full mobility of all his legs.
01:05:26But his attitude, Joe and John, you couldn't meet a nicer guy.
01:05:30I walked in the first day, and I'm saying, Julio, is everything all right?
01:05:33Oh, don't worry, Papi. It's part of the game.
01:05:35And, you know, how's the horse?
01:05:37And that's just how the racetrack really gets together and really loves each other.
01:05:41Even though we compete, and I said this before on another show, you know, we compete against each other.
01:05:45We chase the same horses.
01:05:46We chase the same dollars.
01:05:47We, you know, we fight amongst ourselves.
01:05:50When it all needs it, the racing community really comes together as a family, and we pick each other up.
01:05:56And, Aaron, it's a wonderful thing that you're doing, not only following up with Julio and his family, but also establishing the GoFundMe page.
01:06:05Have you been surprised at just how much has been raised and donations?
01:06:09As of now, it's just over $21,000 raised, and over 160 people have donated money.
01:06:16Yeah, I didn't know. I never set up a GoFundMe before.
01:06:19Actually, I had my daughter help me, and I didn't know what a goal was.
01:06:24I didn't want to put a goal that was, like, unattainable, and I didn't want to put a goal that was too low.
01:06:28So we just picked $20,000, and this morning we passed it.
01:06:32If you look at the list of people that have donated, you know, trainers and jockeys and just the fan that put in $10, and they send you a little note on the side,
01:06:42and I'm trying to thank everybody best I can.
01:06:44There's some kind of link.
01:06:45I think I got most of the people thanked.
01:06:47I'm trying to reach out and make sure I do that, but if I don't, if anyone's listening to this, I want to publicly thank you for donating, keeping Julio in your thoughts.
01:06:55So this money is going to go right to Julio and his family.
01:06:58It's going to be used to help Mrs. Pazua go visit Julio because he's going to be in West Orange.
01:07:03They live in Floral Park, New York, but they said this is the best facility for Julio, so she's going to stay in a hotel at times.
01:07:09The safety net, the Jockey Club safety net, they reached out to me yesterday.
01:07:13I spoke to them.
01:07:14They're going to help him with his rent and his mortgage or whatever he has.
01:07:17I don't know which one for the next couple of months.
01:07:20I'm going to reach out to the Knight of Benevolence, and hopefully, you know, it's going to have to get Julio used to his new form of life,
01:07:26and his daughters and his son were very appreciative, and Julio is really loved by everyone.
01:07:31I mean, I want to show him not even the money that was donated, but all the outpouring of support.
01:07:35I was at the track the other day, and one of the agents said, oh, if you see Julio, tell him Jean Couget, who called the jocks room, wanted you to pass on the hello to him.
01:07:44They play cards together, so it's really nice.
01:07:48Yeah, and like you said, you know, there's as much infighting as there is in this industry.
01:07:53When stuff like this happens, it really is heartwarming how much people rally around, you know, fallen riders and just people who are in hard times.
01:08:01So we appreciate you organizing that GoFundMe.
01:08:04You can see the link.
01:08:05We'll put up the link on the video version of the show, but if you're listening to the audio version, it's GoFundMe slash F slash help dash Julio dash Pezua, P-E-Z-U-A is how you spell his last name.
01:08:18So, Aaron, you go to thank you so much for doing that.
01:08:20Thank you to everybody who's donated so far.
01:08:22Please, if you can, listeners and viewers of the writers room, go donate as well.
01:08:26Thanks for coming on, Aaron.
01:08:27Thank you, John.
01:08:28Let me just jump in one other thing.
01:08:30Don't forget also that the link is also going to be on the TDN website.
01:08:33So you can just as easily go to the TDN website and find the link for the GoFundMe page for Julio Pezua.
01:08:41And if that's an easier way for you guys to find it.
01:08:44So we're trying to make it as easy for people to donate as possible.
01:08:48We know it's going to be a very long road for him.
01:08:50Twenty thousand dollars is a great start, but it's just that it's just a start.
01:08:53So, you know, please give what you can.
01:08:55Thank you, guys.
01:08:56And thank you to TDN for keeping the link on there.
01:08:58I appreciate it very much.
01:09:01OK, so Bill has been banished to the shadow realm once again.
01:09:06He's got a little bit of technical difficulties.
01:09:08We're hoping to get him back for later in the show.
01:09:10But if not, John, I will take you the rest of the way.
01:09:12We wanted to talk a little bit about the Derby and Oaks perspective fields because, you know, we're basically we're basically there now.
01:09:19We're about three and a half weeks away from the Derby.
01:09:23And it's just, you know, we basically have the field settled.
01:09:26And we just will throw up the top 20 Derby points leaderboard.
01:09:30And then we'll talk about our contest.
01:09:32We've got Epicenter number one, Zanden, Whitebario, Modonical, Tis the Bomb, Cyberknife, Crown Pride, the Japanese Horse, Teba, Simplification, Smile Happy, Slowdown Andy, Barber Road, Unoho, Early Voting.
01:09:45Morello might not go.
01:09:47He's number 15.
01:09:48Then Messier, Zozos, Summer is Tomorrow, Charge It and Tawny Port.
01:09:52The ones kind of on the fringe right now for points are Happy Jack, Pioneer, Medina, Grantham, Rich Strike, Rattle and Roll.
01:10:00So I think other than maybe one or two defections, we're going to have that.
01:10:04Those are going to be mainly the 20 horse field that we're going to have.
01:10:08And the Oaks is just as interesting.
01:10:10Honestly, the Oaks points aren't quite as important because the Oaks doesn't always fill like the Derby always fills.
01:10:17But man, you got Echo Zulu, Secret Oath, Nest, who we talked about a little bit earlier.
01:10:23I mean, there's just so many good fillies to look for.
01:10:27Now, John, I wonder, it's going to be hard to pick.
01:10:30Let's talk Oaks first.
01:10:31It's going to be hard to pick, I think, between those top fillies.
01:10:34But just from what you've seen so far this year, who are you leaning towards?
01:10:39You know, Joe, it's interesting because I think that and we've been talking about this the past few weeks.
01:10:44I really genuinely think that the Oaks is the deeper of the two races, the two three-year-old races.
01:10:49I wrote down on a piece of paper last night who I was looking to see and who I was hoping for that would be in the race.
01:10:56And I have no less than eight fillies, eight fillies that I think are legitimate contenders.
01:11:02And you mentioned a couple of them. Echo Zulu is obvious.
01:11:05Nest, who just won the Ashland. Nostalgic, who just won the Gazelle.
01:11:11And then you have Kathleen O, who was a wow winner last time.
01:11:16Secret Oath, who's a really, really phenomenal filly that ran third against the boys.
01:11:21Goddess of Fire. Hidden Connection, who ran second to that filly in the race last week.
01:11:28And Adair Manor. I mean, those are just like off the top of my head, those were just the top eight that I could think of.
01:11:34I know that we're not even including like Desert Dawn, who won the Santa Anita Oaks.
01:11:37She's a Cupid, but she won the Santa Anita Oaks.
01:11:40So there's like a whole host of fillies. And again, from a pride standpoint, you know, DJ Stable, we've had a couple of really nice fillies.
01:11:49We won the Ashland years ago and Jaywalk won the Breeders' Cup.
01:11:52And I would say with all humility that I don't think either of those two fillies would crack the top five of this group.
01:11:59I mean, that's how stacked this group is. And we ran against some really nice fillies.
01:12:03We, you know, Dual Style ran against MC Hammer's, you know, really good filly.
01:12:08And Meadowstar, OK, you know, who are, you know, who are Hall of Famers.
01:12:11And then, you know, Jaywalk, we ran against Bellathena and a number of really, really, you know,
01:12:17I think there were five grade one winners when we ran in the Ashland that year.
01:12:22So, I mean, it was those were good fields. This is going to be a phenomenal field.
01:12:26I mean, to the point where I was laughing when I saw this tweet,
01:12:29but somebody tweeted out that they think that the Oaks and the Derby should flip flop this year as far as the calendar
01:12:34and that the Derby should be in the undercard on Friday and the Oaks should be the feature race.
01:12:39And you know what? I think that you can make a very good argument of the case that this year in particular,
01:12:44there are some really good fillies. And if you run fourth in the Kentucky Oaks,
01:12:48there's no reason to hang your head because you probably would have run a number that was good enough to win,
01:12:53you know, the majority of the races over the past few years.
01:12:56So, Joe, I'm a filly guy. I always like to, you know, to root for the fillies.
01:13:00But this year in particular, there are some really deep, deep, good, talented fillies.
01:13:05And not to say there aren't talented Colts,
01:13:07but there are fillies on this list that I wrote down wows next to in the races.
01:13:13And I didn't write down as many wows for the boys.
01:13:16Well, it's interesting, too, because we spent so much time talking about the lead up to the Derby and the Derby trail
01:13:21and the prep season that we kind of forgot about the fillies until the last month or so
01:13:25when we started to see some of those breakout performances.
01:13:28And, yeah, I think out of kind of out of nowhere, the Oaks has become the better, more intriguing race.
01:13:33And to your point, you know, Echo Zulu, I think, could run the best race of her life and run fourth in this race.
01:13:38You know, and she's a champion.
01:13:40So I think that that really speaks to how deep and how competitive this field is.
01:13:45And, you know, it's great. It's great to have, you know, the two big races you're looking forward to.
01:13:50I think a lot of years there's won either the Oaks or the Derby.
01:13:53I think both are really intriguing. Obviously, we're talking about the Oaks right now.
01:13:56And that's that's kind of more of the now more of the now race in terms of how these fillies have come on late in the season.
01:14:03But the Derby's got plenty of nice Colts, too.
01:14:05And I wanted to throw up the the stables points because we're close.
01:14:08We are coming right down to the wire in the Derby.
01:14:11If you want to put up the standings right now, Al's narrowly in charge at 270 because he had Zanden win the Bluegrass over the weekend.
01:14:18That was his number one pick. Bill is at 250 at Messier run second.
01:14:23Fortunately, he's not going to have Forbidden Kingdom in the Derby, but he's still got Epicenter is going to be among the favorites.
01:14:28I'm at 230. Smile Happy ran second for me in the Bluegrass.
01:14:33Don't think we're going to see Classic Cosway in the Derby. Probably see Smile Happy and White Abaro for me.
01:14:38I actually thought Command Performance ran better than it looked in that race, but he's going to be off the Derby trail.
01:14:42John's got 215. Moe Donegal winning the Wood Memorial for him.
01:14:46So he's right in the thick of it, too. He's got Charge It, Slow Down Andy.
01:14:50Emmanuel, I don't think, is going to run in the Derby.
01:14:52I think they're going to they're going to take him off the trail after he ran third in the Bluegrass.
01:14:56And Sue's last. Sue didn't want us to put up the standings, but she's got the leftover team.
01:15:01So that's like, you know, we've got to put that caveat up there.
01:15:03We'll put in parentheses Sue Finley, parentheses leftovers.
01:15:06She's got 25 and she might have Pioneer Medina in that race.
01:15:09And you never know. It's still anybody's game because the Derby is going to be 300 points for the winner.
01:15:15150 for second and then 75 for third and 50 for fourth.
01:15:19So even Sue Finley's leftover team still got a shot. But I think it'll be it'll be fun.
01:15:23We'll have a lot of action. I think we'll have like probably half the field amongst the four teams.
01:15:28And, you know, for me, I can't get past Epicenter's race in the Louisiana Derby.
01:15:34That to me was the best race of the prep season.
01:15:37Like I know we talked about Tebow before and he was really impressive and how good Zanden looked in the in the Bluegrass.
01:15:43But I don't know, man, just the way Epicenter was able to switch off in that race and not be on the lead
01:15:48and was able to go around horses and just, you know, just galloped home in the lane.
01:15:52He's got so much tactical speed. To me, he's the horse to beat.
01:15:57Now, you know, we were talking before that the favorites probably going to be four to one, five to one.
01:16:01We'll get a little bit, you know, we'll get a little bit better idea as the race gets closer.
01:16:06But, you know, even at four to one or five to one, if you have a horse that you like in this Derby, I say go for it.
01:16:12You know, it's not obviously you're not relatively you're not going to get the same value as if you like a 20 to one or 30 to one shot.
01:16:18You want to say it's a scramble. You'd rather take a big price.
01:16:21But I don't know. You're not it's not going to be one of the derbies where you're going to have to eat seven to five or two to one.
01:16:25If there's a horse you really like. So, you know, if epicenter is five to one, I don't think that that's terrible value.
01:16:30You know, especially in terms of like keying the horse and exactives and trifectas.
01:16:34You can always get those big exotic payouts in the Derby.
01:16:37Like really all it takes is to get one clunk up 40 to 150 to one shot in third or fourth.
01:16:42And you almost always get those usually Dallas Stewart.
01:16:45Where's the Dallas Stewart horse that can sneak up and get into the exact at 60 to one.
01:16:50But that's my opinion, John epicenter to me still stands alone as the best prep winner.
01:16:56What do you think? I think you can make that argument.
01:16:59I definitely think that you can make the argument that he had the most impressive race.
01:17:03You know, Joe, it's interesting. And going through the archives of the most recent 30 years, you see some patterns.
01:17:10And number one is that, you know, over the past few years, the Derby favorite has actually hit the board in a number in the majority of races,
01:17:18which is surprising because prior to that, that wasn't always the case.
01:17:21It was, you know, it was like the Derby downfall. You know, if you were the favorite, it was it was actually tough.
01:17:26Something else I thought was interesting is that only two horses in the past 30 years have had triple digit buyer numbers.
01:17:33The race before the Derby. So if you're looking at that, you say, OK, well, well, Dave, I would knock off then,
01:17:39because, you know, the one with the one of three buyer and the one on one buyer, you know,
01:17:43that he is subject to bounce for this race, especially that he's been so lightly raced.
01:17:48So there's a lot of reasons to kind of clip off a couple of horses.
01:17:52But if you're looking at, you know, the eye test, I think you also have to look at white of Mario.
01:17:58And again, I wasn't a fan of this. I passed on him, you know,
01:18:01after he won the Holy Bowl and didn't think that he was going to be able to stretch out.
01:18:05And he's proven me wrong that he's run, you know, a couple of really good races.
01:18:09Another Florida horse that that I liked was was simplification.
01:18:14And I think simplification bounce last time.
01:18:17I really feel like that that was his race that you kind of put a line through and say, OK,
01:18:22he's coming back into this race and and should be stepping up.
01:18:25But I really feel like that that the winner is going to be coming out of either California,
01:18:30like I mentioned, or out of Florida. I don't think the New York preps were that impressive.
01:18:36And I have no don't call on my on my team, but I just didn't. I felt like he kind of ground it out.
01:18:41He didn't really have an acceleration like that that you make you go, wow.
01:18:46And I definitely don't think anyone out of Oakland is coming in and is going to hit the board.
01:18:51And Louisiana, you can maybe make a case for.
01:18:53But a lot of those horses have gone from Louisiana run at one of the other prep races as well.
01:18:57So I think that the Derby winner is going to be coming either from the Pacific Coast or from,
01:19:04you know, or from Miami this year.
01:19:07And I'm not going too far on a limb by saying that.
01:19:10But, you know, this is a good year.
01:19:12This is definitely a good year to play some long shots because you got.
01:19:16No, I'm just going to say, well, talking about the California horses, it's interesting.
01:19:20Like the the the additional story line of Tim Yaktin and Bob Baffert,
01:19:24I think adds a lot of intrigue to this derby as well.
01:19:27You know, there's a decent chance that Tim Yaktin could run one,
01:19:30two in the Kentucky Derby with horses that were trained by Bob Baffert up to a month ago.
01:19:35So, I mean, there's going to be a lot to talk about in that way, at least for sure.
01:19:39And Joe, one of the things like we should be happy that we have, you know,
01:19:4210 or 11 horses in our in our contest that are going to be making the Derby, which is great.
01:19:47But like none of us talked about Crown Pride.
01:19:49I don't even know, you know, coming in from Japan.
01:19:52I don't really know a lot about them other than like the Japanese, you know,
01:19:55came came West and stole our lunch in the Breeders' Cup races.
01:19:58So maybe this is the first legitimate, you know, Japanese entry in the Kentucky Derby.
01:20:03And in summers tomorrow, I know like Brary Jones and Airdrie are involved with it.
01:20:08But and he has 40 points, but I can't honestly remember watching him in a race.
01:20:12Do you? No, no.
01:20:14So I don't know how well that speaks to us and how much we cover international racing on this show.
01:20:20No, but it's true. And honestly, I hope those horses run well,
01:20:23because I just think overall there's better there's better racing in America when there's more international participation.
01:20:29This is more of a recent thing in like the past decade or so where you have these overseas qualifying races for the Derby.
01:20:36Now, so far, those horses have not come here and done anything.
01:20:39A couple of them have scratched and actually not come over.
01:20:41But yeah, I wouldn't you know, I'd have to look more at the pedigree because I think that's one of those things
01:20:47where you have a lot of these these qualifying races that some of them are on dirt, but some of them are on synthetic.
01:20:52It's not necessarily going to translate to American dirt racing.
01:20:55So I'd have to look a little bit harder at the pedigrees and who they're running against.
01:20:59Al, Al's the guy to ask about the Japanese horse for sure.
01:21:02So I'll definitely get his input before we we place any bets on the Derby.
01:21:06But yeah, I always love a little bit of international flair.
01:21:08It's it's really made the Breeders' Cup what it is, is all of the international participation.
01:21:13And I don't think it hurts to have horses like that in the Derby or the or the Preakness of the Belmont either.
01:21:18Yeah, and the only other thing I would say is, and it's only because Bill's not here, so I can take some of his airtime.
01:21:23But can we please get rid of the point races at Turfway?
01:21:27There's no way that and no offense to Tiz the Bomb, who was a legitimate turf horse also.
01:21:33And no offense to Tawny Port, who ran second in those races to Tiz the Bomb.
01:21:39But, you know, there's no way that that these synthetic races should have the same point totals as as the other major preps.
01:21:48If you want to say, OK, I'm going to give it the same point totals as the Lexington, for example, you know, make it a 20 pointer or make it, you know, something like that.
01:21:55Then I can understand it. But, you know, basically, Tiz the Bomb, in my opinion, is keeping out a more legitimate horse, more legitimate proven dirt horse in the race,
01:22:05because he got 100 points for winning the Jeff Ruby stakes stake.
01:22:11So I will not stand for this animal kingdom erasure, because if you remember, he won the spiral and then he came through and won the Kentucky Derby.
01:22:18But, yes, in general, I would agree that the Turfway preps are more they're more likely a prep for the Edgewood or the Belmont Derby or a race like that than the Kentucky Derby.
01:22:30So I'll agree with you and just just for the future.
01:22:33Now, Sue can never ask Turfway to sponsor the podcast.
01:22:38But all I know is if I was the owner of Pioneer Medina or Grantham or Ridge Strike, I would be I would be pissed.
01:22:45It's not like those horses did anything great.
01:22:48You know, it's understood we're not leaving out Secretariat here.
01:22:53You don't know that. You don't know that because we'll never know.
01:22:57Maybe that's the horse that develops and blossoms.
01:22:59Well, if Grantham runs 224 in the Belmont and wins by 31 lengths, I will tip my cap to you, sir.
01:23:06We've got about as much chance of that happening as Bill figuring out his computer issues before the end of the show.
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01:23:27West Point superstar Flightline put in his first work in two months on Sunday.
01:23:31How was this not our work of the week?
01:23:33No disrespect to Edgeway, but Flightline is appointment viewing.
01:23:36Even when he's working out, he went three furlongs in 37 flat.
01:23:39Great to see him back on the track.
01:23:41Looked like he wanted to do a little bit more in that workout.
01:23:44So we're really looking forward to seeing him later in the year.
01:23:47West Point has a few runners at Keeneland over the next few days.
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01:25:40Here's Remy's cartoon for this week.
01:25:42We are officially on the road to the Kentucky Derby, which, as John can attest, is not an easy road to hoe.
01:25:48You've got to turn left on Bloodline Road, go about five, four miles on Yearling Way,
01:25:53right on Soundness Avenue, left on Prep Race Lane for a mile and an eighth,
01:25:57and then jump on Points Highway and exit on Needluck Boulevard.
01:26:01Definitely a lot of factors going in to derby success.
01:26:04Love that one. Love that one.
01:26:06Okay, so that's going to do it for this week's edition of the TDN Writers Room presented by Keeneland.
01:26:10A reminder that the catalog is now online for the Keeneland April Horses of Racing Age sale
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01:26:19Approved supplements will be accepted until sale date.
01:26:21You can visit april.keeneland.com for more details.
01:26:24And week two of that Keeneland Meet starts later today.
01:26:27I want to thank Bill Finley, John Green, our Green Group Guest of the Week, Alan Foreman,
01:26:31our producer, Patty Wolfe, our associate producer, Katie Petruniak,
01:26:34and our editors, Anthony LaRocca, Aaliyah LaRocca, Nathan Wilkinson.
01:26:38Thank you so much for watching. See you next week.

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