Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00:00For the love of the horse, for generations to come.
00:00:28And welcome to another edition of the TDN Writer's Room podcast, a pre-Saratoga edition.
00:00:34Lots to look forward to this week and coming up this weekend, of course, with great racing
00:00:38in Saratoga.
00:00:39My name is Bill Finlay.
00:00:40I'm a correspondent for the Thoroughbred Daily News, also co-hosting Down the Stretch
00:00:43Show and Sirius XM Radio with Dave Johnson.
00:00:47I am Randy Moss with NBC Sports and the Bayer Speed Figure team.
00:00:52Zoe Cameron here with First Racing and XBTV.
00:00:55I'm coming in from Saratoga.
00:00:57I will be here all summer long.
00:00:59We already got going and started filming workouts at Saratoga.
00:01:02We have a camera on the main track and one on Oklahoma, so we will have tons of works
00:01:09coming your way.
00:01:10We actually caught Major's full brother working the other day for Danny Gargan.
00:01:15Danny says it's the best horse he's ever trained.
00:01:17He hasn't run yet, but, you know, he looked pretty good.
00:01:22Great stuff out of XBTV as always.
00:01:24I want to remind you that the TDN Writers' Room podcast is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:01:28Guys, most of the news made over the last seven days since we have Blast On happened
00:01:33off track with Hyza.
00:01:35I'm going to preface by saying I remain a Hyza proponent.
00:01:40I think it's going to be very good for racing.
00:01:42I think it's something that was needed very badly.
00:01:45Man, did they have a bad week.
00:01:49Whoa.
00:01:50We have some serious missteps and some things that I think everybody needs to take a look
00:01:54at and sort of re-evaluate.
00:01:55Last week, we had an attorney, Alan Pincus, on and he basically drilled Hyza.
00:02:01I thought it was a little bit over the top, to be frank, but one of his points was the
00:02:06guilty until proven innocent aspect of what's happening with the people that get caught
00:02:11with quote-unquote banned substances.
00:02:14Once you're caught with a banned substance, go directly to jail.
00:02:18They don't wait for you to get a split sample.
00:02:20They don't give you a hearing.
00:02:21They tell you to get off the track.
00:02:23They take your horses away and you're done.
00:02:26Now, why is this a problem?
00:02:28Well, look at what happened with trainer Ray Handle.
00:02:32First of all, the old way of doing things didn't work either.
00:02:36It took a year and a half for these things to be adjudicated.
00:02:39Here's a trainer, never been in trouble his entire life, gets a positive for some weird
00:02:44drug and they lower the boom on him.
00:02:48Seven days later, they say, never mind.
00:02:51It came from the feed.
00:02:52It was contaminated.
00:02:54Now, I'm sure he was delighted to be exonerated, but can you imagine what those few days must
00:03:00have been like for him and the absolute just horrible thing that he was put through?
00:03:05The answer is they got to put some sort of pause on this, guys.
00:03:09I don't want to go back to the days where we waited a year and a half for this to happen,
00:03:14but having said that, they're moving too quickly with this.
00:03:17They need to take a deep breath.
00:03:19And it's not just Handle, there's some other examples of this.
00:03:21But that was one of many things I think HISA has gotten wrong.
00:03:26Well, look, I know moderation is out of vogue, especially in politics, but in other areas
00:03:33of life as well.
00:03:34But this HISA situation right now is just crying out for moderation because we knew
00:03:41this was coming.
00:03:43We knew it.
00:03:44I mean, HISA has just gotten out of the proverbial starting gate.
00:03:47The regulatory framework for HISA is so far reaching and such a change from the previous
00:03:56status quo that everyone knew or should have known that criticisms and problems would arise
00:04:02as soon as these strict regulations on paper were put into place in the real world.
00:04:09The key now is to take these issues as they arise and look at the rules and regulations
00:04:15and consider how they can be improved through tweaking.
00:04:19And Lisa Lazarus and HISA talked about this even before it was implemented, or in some
00:04:23cases it may require even wholesale rewriting of the rules.
00:04:29Because make no mistake about it, these are very complicated regulations and it's a very
00:04:36complicated situation.
00:04:38There are 132 pages in the Federal Register dealing with HISA and one page will look something
00:04:47like this.
00:04:48Three columns, small type, written by lawyers, and there's a lot of legalese involved.
00:04:55For example, I'm just going to read one thing that I highlighted here and I just happen
00:04:58to look at it and see it.
00:05:01If the covered person establishes entitlement to a reduction or suspension of the period
00:05:06of ineligibility under two or more of rules 3224, 3225, or 3226, the otherwise applicable
00:05:13period of ineligibility shall be determined in accordance with rules 3223, 3224, and 3225
00:05:19before applying any reduction or suspension under rule 3226.
00:05:28For horse trainers who are already feeling overwhelmed with trying to figure out what
00:05:33medications they can give when and when to discontinue and things like that.
00:05:39This is something that is a work in progress, not only for the horseman to try to figure
00:05:45out what's going on, but for HISA.
00:05:48In terms of implementing 132 pages like that, there are bound to be a lot of mistakes made
00:05:55on both sides and this is just going to take time and patience to work through it.
00:06:00These are training wheels and they've taken them off too soon, is basically what I think.
00:06:05It's like a little kid learning to ride a bike.
00:06:07You take them off too soon, they're going to fall over and they're going to fall over
00:06:10until they get it right.
00:06:12That's what's happening.
00:06:13The only thing that I really have a problem with is the provisional suspension coming
00:06:19before the second test comes back, as we saw with Ray Handel.
00:06:24Jonathan Wong, 100 horses were distributed.
00:06:27Now we don't know what's going on with his case.
00:06:30They can't go to the assistant, they go elsewhere.
00:06:33So what, say Ray Handel had 100 horses, they all got redistributed for those six days or
00:06:38however long it was, and now he's got them back.
00:06:42What if one of those horses gets a bad test the next time it runs under Ray's name, but
00:06:48that horse wasn't in the care of Ray for those six days?
00:06:52So then you've got that to deal with.
00:06:55What I think I would like to see with the provisional suspension, if that's what they
00:06:58want to do, let the assistants take the horses for the provisional suspension.
00:07:05If the test comes back and it's negative, then those horses haven't moved, they've stayed
00:07:10in the same climate that they've been in, and if it comes back positive, then they go
00:07:15and the punishment pursues.
00:07:18That's kind of the point I'm getting at, is what happens to Ray's horses in those six
00:07:22days if one comes back now with a bad test that's been with somebody else?
00:07:26How are you going to adjudicate that?
00:07:28Yeah, you know, Randy, I thank you, Zoe, and Randy, I know exactly what you're saying,
00:07:33and maybe we shouldn't ask them to be perfect right from the start, but here's another one,
00:07:38and I thought this one, I'm not going to make any excuses for what was one of the other
00:07:42missteps they had that I was reporting on and other people in the trade press.
00:07:48The rule where if a horse gets an interarticular injection, they cannot race within 14 days
00:07:54and cannot race within seven.
00:07:56If they do, the trainer gets a suspension of up to 60 days.
00:07:58That was the rule.
00:07:59Then they come out and say, well, all these horses were violators of the rule, but we're
00:08:06not going to suspend any of the trainers because there was confusion.
00:08:11First of all, I never knew that confusion was a premise for getting exonerated, but
00:08:17then we tried to get the names of the horses and they wouldn't give them to us, and then
00:08:21they came back and gave them to us, and it just looked like they were just making it
00:08:26up as they went along.
00:08:29The worst part about this was that these horses, even though the trainers were not penalized,
00:08:36the horses were, that they couldn't race or work out for 30 days.
00:08:42Lo and behold, nine of the horses ran during the 30-day process when they were suspended.
00:08:51How did they let that happen?
00:08:54It looked like nobody was paying attention.
00:08:57Yeah, I mean, HISA is so far-reaching and there are so many things that's involved with
00:09:03trying to regulate and so many rules to try to deal with that I promise you, even the
00:09:08people within HISA are going to get lost sometimes and are going to make mistakes that
00:09:13they shouldn't be making, and we're going to see more of it as well.
00:09:17It's something that's just going to be a process to streamline as we go along.
00:09:22As far as the provisional suspensions go, a lot of HISA's regulations were patterned
00:09:28after the World Anti-Doping Agency, WADA, or the USADA, the US Anti-Doping Agency, something
00:09:36called the IFHA, the International Federation of Horse Racing Authorities, the FEI, the
00:09:43International Equestrian Federation, which I'm familiar with, they monitor and supervise
00:09:48the rules and regulations for the Olympic equestrian sport, show jumping, dressage,
00:09:53eventing.
00:09:54WADA and the FEI are very big on provisional suspensions and the wording is very similar
00:10:03in the HISA rules and regulations as it is, for example, in the FEI rules and regulations,
00:10:09but maybe thoroughbred horse racing is something that's going to have to be treated just a
00:10:14little bit differently.
00:10:15Now there are some adjustments made, for example, in the rules for WADA compared to the rules
00:10:23for HISA, right?
00:10:24If you hand a track and field superstar a provisional suspension for 30 days, you're
00:10:31only talking about one guy, okay?
00:10:33If you give a trainer a provisional suspension for 30 days, you're talking about a large
00:10:37stable of horses, multiple owners, you're talking about something that completely run
00:10:42a guy out of business, a can.
00:10:44So I agree that a lot of this needs to be looked at and to Zoe's point, I completely
00:10:52agree that it looks as if, from what we've seen so far, that maybe they need to dial
00:10:58back a bit on the extent of these provisional suspensions and treat someone as if they're
00:11:04innocent until proven guilty, as long as the hearings are done expeditiously and the split
00:11:11samples are returned expeditiously.
00:11:13I think that's a key part of this, but we're going to hear a lot more of this.
00:11:17I mean, this is something that, but you can't, look, I know there are people who say, like
00:11:25the National HPPA, for example, oh, this is evidence that you need to just repeal HISA.
00:11:30It never should have been legalized in the first place.
00:11:32And there are also people who are going to say, they're going to dismiss all these problems
00:11:37and they're going to say that this is just collateral damage.
00:11:39These are the same people on the other end of the spectrum who say that HISA is the greatest
00:11:44thing to ever happen to the sport of horse racing.
00:11:46But the truth is somewhere in the middle and you've got to deal with these situations and
00:11:51fix them as they arise to make this thing work better as we go on.
00:11:55Yeah, then we're going to have an awful lot of stumbling blocks.
00:11:58And honestly, kudos to Dan Ross and Bill for keeping up with this.
00:12:02I don't know how you guys have kept up with everything.
00:12:04You've been going down more rabbit holes than Randy.
00:12:08What about the trainer, Randy Nunn?
00:12:09What do we think about him and his suspension and how he's been treated?
00:12:13So that's Doug.
00:12:14His name is Doug Nunn.
00:12:16He's a guy based at Monmouth.
00:12:20I don't want to make this a piling on HISA segment, but again, back to his lawyers are
00:12:32obviously prone to hyperbole.
00:12:35Alan Pincus last week on the show said the way the HIWU regulations are written is pure
00:12:40evil.
00:12:41Now, talk about, come on, Alan, tone it down a little bit.
00:12:47These lawyers love to speak in these terms, but Drew Mollica, the lawyer for Doug Nunn,
00:12:51also had a very good point.
00:12:53Back to the inter-articular injections, the guys that, as we said, that the bulk of these
00:13:03trainers were not penalized.
00:13:06Nunn was given a 30-day suspension for essentially the same offense, but with one little difference.
00:13:15They said they gave him the suspension because he ran the horse within the prescribed period,
00:13:2114 days.
00:13:22The others were not suspended because they only worked the horse during the prescribed
00:13:28period, but they both, all of them violated the same rule.
00:13:33So you're twisting the rule around to get one guy, but not the others.
00:13:38You have to have some consistency here.
00:13:41To me, if you let all these other trainers, I believe it was 17 of them, off the hook,
00:13:47how do you make this poor guy spend 30 days on the sidelines for what is essentially the
00:13:52exact same transgression?
00:13:55So again, will they figure it out?
00:13:57Will they straighten these things out?
00:13:58Let's hope so.
00:13:59But they've got some things here they need to work on and they can do a better job, which
00:14:02Randy has said, that's kind of the statements that he's been making about it.
00:14:07So we shall see.
00:14:09I do want to remind you that the TDN Writers' Room is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:14:14Verifying, the winner of Saturday's Grade 3 Indiana Derby was purchased at the 2021
00:14:21Keeneland September Sale, as was Maple Leaf male.
00:14:25She is undefeated, now trained by Melanie Giddings.
00:14:28Her namesake, she took down the Grade 3 Victory Ride at Belmont the same day.
00:14:33Let's just not forget about Benedetta, the TDN's newest rising star.
00:14:38She is also a graduate of last year's Keeneland September Sale.
00:14:42Keeneland is home of the World's Yearling Sale.
00:14:45The energy, magic and momentum of the September Yearling Sale returns September the 11th through
00:14:51the 23rd.
00:14:52Where will you be?
00:14:53I'll be there.
00:14:54Learn more at theworldyearlingsale.com.
00:14:59If this place could talk, it would roar, it would say, this is a re-say, this beating
00:15:13heart in the heart of horse country, steady and strong beneath the roar, reminding us
00:15:21why, for the love of the horse, for generations to come.
00:15:29This week, we debut a new feature for the Saratoga racing season.
00:15:33It's called the Saratoga Minute, brought to you by Naira Betts.
00:15:37And let's kick off the Saratoga Minute now by joining Katie Pertuniak at Saratoga.
00:15:47So we are here with Irad and Jose Ortiz for our first edition of the Saratoga Minute for
00:15:53the TDN Riders Room.
00:15:54And I have to ask both of you, who is going to win the Saratoga Meet this year?
00:16:00I do.
00:16:01I do.
00:16:02Irad.
00:16:03I mean, we're going to work hard for the meet and hopefully we get lucky.
00:16:08Jose, what about you?
00:16:09What do you think?
00:16:10I think I'm here to win and we're going to work very hard for it.
00:16:14And whatever happens, hopefully we get a healthy and successful meet, but we're here to win.
00:16:22How happy are you guys to be back in Saratoga?
00:16:25We are so happy to be back here.
00:16:27It's a great place to be in the summertime and a lot of fans show up every day and we
00:16:34love the fan love.
00:16:36I'm very happy to be here.
00:16:39It's the best horses, the best jockey, the best trainers, best owners in the game, everybody
00:16:45in the same place.
00:16:46So I'm very, very excited to be back and the atmosphere of the fans in the afternoon every
00:16:51day is make it special.
00:16:56Again the Saratoga Minute is brought to you by Naira Bets.
00:16:59You can sign up now for Naira Bets and get a matching deposit of $200.
00:17:04Bet any track, anytime, anywhere.
00:17:06Here's how the matching deposit works.
00:17:08Just make a deposit within 30 days of signing up for your account.
00:17:11Bet twice the amount of your initial deposit and Naira Bets will give you a wagering credit
00:17:17equal to the amount of your first deposit.
00:17:21All you have to do is sign up with promo code BONUS200 to get your deposit matched today.
00:17:28So a lot of interesting races last weekend and we're going to talk to Andy Serling in
00:17:32a minute and talk about the Travers with him.
00:17:35Andy Serling, of course, from the New York Race Association, but it's never boring to
00:17:39talk about the three-year-olds.
00:17:40I know the Los Alamitos Derby was not the biggest race, it's not even graded, but Reincarnate,
00:17:46and I love, how about Michael Rona's call, Reincarnate has come back to life.
00:17:51Very clever.
00:17:52Well done by Los Alamitos announcer, Michael Rona, but Bob Baffert has won this race seven
00:17:59straight years and 13 overall.
00:18:02Randy, where is Reincarnate going to fit in as we now progress into the second half of
00:18:08the season and coming up with Jim Dandy, Haskell Travers, et cetera?
00:18:11Looks like Baffert said he might come back for the Travers.
00:18:14I didn't like him in this race, not because of his Kentucky Derby.
00:18:17I mean, he was roasted in that torrid pace and he had an excuse for that, but the prior
00:18:22race in the Arkansas Derby, I thought was a little bit blah, and he beat a pretty good
00:18:26horse in Skinner, who ran second in there, did get to the lead.
00:18:30Oh, fractions were okay, 23 and one, 47 and three, but what did you make of Reincarnate?
00:18:37Is he a horse that can make some noise when the waters get a little bit deeper in races
00:18:40like the Travers?
00:18:42Well, I'm going to be a tough audience here.
00:18:46It's nice to see him bounce back.
00:18:48Nice to see him win, unless you bet on Skinner, of course.
00:18:52But I felt that the field that he beat was pretty subpar once Skinner didn't quite live
00:18:59up to expectations.
00:19:00Skinner hadn't run in 12 weeks, he'd had some issues during that period of time.
00:19:04I don't think we saw the same Skinner in the Los Alfajores that we saw in the Santa Anita
00:19:10Derby and some of the other races before that.
00:19:13So other than that, there was nothing in there, and I think Reincarnate basically had a front
00:19:19running base on balls.
00:19:20I still prefer Baffert's other three-year-olds.
00:19:23I texted with him this morning, Arabian Knight right now is the horse he's leaning toward
00:19:29for the Haskell, which he's won nine times at Monmouth, leaning toward Arabian Knight
00:19:34over Arabian Lion.
00:19:36He's not sure now if he's going to have anything at all for the Jim Dandy, but you've got National
00:19:40Treasure out there, you've got Fort Bragg, who they will presumably try to stretch out.
00:19:46So Baffert is loaded in the three-year-old department.
00:19:49And I like all of those horses actually, right now, more than I like Reincarnate.
00:19:54Yeah, I'm inclined to agree with you once more, Randy.
00:19:59Reincarnate, much the best.
00:20:01You could say Skinner had a wide trip.
00:20:02I'm going to say that Reincarnate was just as wide because much like Belmont Park, the
00:20:06jockeys at Los Al, they stay way, way off the rail.
00:20:10So even though Reincarnate won wire to wire, he was five, six wide the whole way around
00:20:16there and just proved much the best.
00:20:18And the last time he won a race, he was on the lead.
00:20:20So it looked like Skinner didn't handle the track or the turns or anything.
00:20:24So I would completely put a line through that.
00:20:27That's not the best version of Skinner.
00:20:29I'm pretty sure we'll probably see him bounce back in his next race.
00:20:33So Reincarnate, not the top of Bob's list, but really looking forward to seeing the Arabian
00:20:38horses run this summer, Arabian lion looking like he's going to be a good one as well.
00:20:44And Zoe Baffert's already unveiling a couple of really nice two year olds on Sunday at
00:20:48Los Alamitos.
00:20:49I don't think that I've ever seen this before.
00:20:52A horse by the name of Prince of Monaco, a first time starter, won and paid $210 to win
00:20:59as a first time starter.
00:21:00I guess the word was out, hey Zoe?
00:21:02Oh yeah.
00:21:03No, he was a really, really good horse.
00:21:07Prince of Monaco.
00:21:08I mean, he won by eight.
00:21:09He stopped the clock in 57.21 and you really have to watch the race to see the ease at
00:21:17which he won by JJ Hernandez, motionless, just looking around, looking around, looking
00:21:23for company.
00:21:24He was sold.
00:21:25I think he was sold at the Fasig-Tibson sale for $950,000.
00:21:29Summerfield sold him.
00:21:30A really good looking son of Spicetown.
00:21:35Yeah, he is the real deal.
00:21:38And I mean, Baffert's loaded as always this time of year, you're going to see him come
00:21:41out running.
00:21:42We saw Muth.
00:21:43He won last month.
00:21:44Miramardi, he was second on debut.
00:21:47He'll come back.
00:21:48He's likely to win.
00:21:49He's still got to unveil Colmus.
00:21:51So we've got a couple of race callers there.
00:21:53They paid $2.2 million for him at the March OBS sale off of Nick Demerick.
00:21:58So he is absolutely loaded for bear come Del Mar.
00:22:03And to be honest, I mean, Muth and Prince of Monaco are just the first couple of drips
00:22:07out of the Bob Baffert bigot that's probably going to be flowing full steam by the time
00:22:13we get to the end of the Del Mar meeting.
00:22:15And then, of course, later on this year with these two-year-olds, I'll go on the record,
00:22:20I'll go out on a limb as saying that Baffert will probably win the Del Mar Futurity.
00:22:25He's done it 16 times.
00:22:28It's unbelievable that a trainer would win a grade one stakes on 16 different occasions
00:22:34and probably Muth or Prince of Monaco will make it 17 in the Del Mar Futurity for Bob,
00:22:40unless you run something else between now and then it's even better.
00:22:43And he's been known to break horses maidens in those graded stakes for two-year-olds at
00:22:47Del Mar, American Pharoah being one of them.
00:22:50So it's Bob's world down there at Del Mar and everyone else will be living in it.
00:22:55So the Belmont spring meet wrapped up with a couple of grade ones on Saturday, the Belmont
00:22:59Oaks and the Belmont Derby, Aspen Grove, a shipper coming in from Europe wins the Belmont
00:23:05Oaks.
00:23:06Belmont Derby, Farbridge for Todd Pletcher wins, maybe a little bit lucky because the
00:23:10Foxes, I know Zoe liked that horse, didn't have a great trip, got off to a slow start.
00:23:15But I want to get your guys' observations, but we think of Pletcher, especially with
00:23:19Saratoga coming up with all the great two-year-olds he's going to unveil and the three-year-old
00:23:22Turf Horses in his barn, he's got the best three-year-old Turf Horse in the country in
00:23:27Farbridge and the best older Turf Horse in the country and up to the mark.
00:23:31So, you know, and that's one thing about Pletcher I've always noticed and he deserves credit
00:23:35for.
00:23:36He's very versed.
00:23:37He's good at everything.
00:23:38I mean, he's not a specialist like some of these people are in some categories, but a
00:23:42big weekend for Farbridge and Aspen Grove.
00:23:45Randy, any thoughts on those races?
00:23:47Yeah, I mean, I think if the Foxes comes back for the Saratoga Derby and runs against Farbridge,
00:23:52again, the Foxes will probably, again, be the betting favorite.
00:23:57He was only beaten a length by Farbridge.
00:24:00Ocean Murphy on the Foxes was following Jose Ortiz on Farbridge for most of the race.
00:24:07And keep in mind also that the Foxes got a Euro break.
00:24:12He broke behind the field.
00:24:14Ocean wanted to be forwardly placed, he said, after the race.
00:24:17Instead, he was way back at the back of the pack and Farbridge got first jump on him.
00:24:21A little traffic at the top of the stretch also for the Foxes.
00:24:24He was probably best.
00:24:26Webb Slinger also ran well to finish fourth despite a wide trip.
00:24:30As far as the other race goes, the Oaks, as if we needed more.
00:24:34I mean, this is exhibit A as to why when you're handicapping turf races involving Europeans,
00:24:41you should always give the Europeans extra credit and then go back again and give them
00:24:46even more extra credit.
00:24:49If you look at Aspen Grove, okay, as a two-year-old, she ran in a group three race at the Currah.
00:24:55She won it at odds of 66 to one.
00:24:59She came back in a group one at Longchamp.
00:25:01She was 35 to one, ran poorly.
00:25:04She was 25 to one this year in a group three at Leopardstown, finished third, and last
00:25:08time out in a group one, the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Currah, 50 to one in that race and
00:25:15finished last.
00:25:17She is in no way, no shape, no how a group one level filly in Europe.
00:25:24And yet she comes to the United States and Aspen Grove beats most of the best three-year-old
00:25:30grass fillies in America in a group one right off the bat.
00:25:34And she did it despite lingering behind in extremely soft early pace and ran the last
00:25:41quarter mile at about 22 and two-fifths seconds.
00:25:46I do think Papilio was probably the best horse in there given the trips, but Aspen Grove,
00:25:52just another example of how dominant these Europeans are when they come over here generally.
00:25:57How about this Glen Hill Farm Silks?
00:25:59Yeah.
00:26:00Wasn't it cool to see those coming over from Europe for Craig Garnick, Aspen Grove coming
00:26:05over from Fozzy Stack, who a lot of people have not heard of over here in the program.
00:26:10Obviously he's listed as Jack, but he's known to everyone over there as Fozzy Stack.
00:26:15She was in season prior to the Guineas by all accounts and doesn't handle being in season
00:26:20very well whatsoever considering her last place finish.
00:26:24She got a picture perfect ride from O'Sheen Murphy and proved to be much the best and
00:26:28she gets to stay.
00:26:30She's actually in Jack's barn, Jack's sister's barn.
00:26:34I saw him yesterday and she's liable to run in either the Saratoga Oaks or go over to
00:26:40Del Mar for the Del Mar Oaks.
00:26:42But most likely they're thinking towards here because they feel the track will suit her
00:26:48a little bit better.
00:26:50So Aspen Grove, much the best as far as the Belmont Derby.
00:26:54I was looking for eight to one on the Foxes because that was right at his morning line.
00:26:59He went off the favorite at two to one and yeah, the Euro break killed him.
00:27:04It really did.
00:27:05He was wide, which is fair enough, but so was Farbridge turning for home.
00:27:09Really good race and I'm looking forward to many more matchups.
00:27:13But how about Larry Sarf and the LSU Stables?
00:27:18I just assumed he was a Louisiana guy, didn't you?
00:27:21I assumed he was an LSU alumni.
00:27:26He's not.
00:27:27He's from Coney Island.
00:27:28He used to sell canishes on the beach.
00:27:30He's got a New York accent and the LSU is for his wife, Leslie Sarf, and the U is for
00:27:37distorted Ooma, Ooma, something like that.
00:27:41So we all say Randy goes down the rabbit hole for these interesting anecdotes.
00:27:46You out Randy, you Randy'd us on that one.
00:27:50And the colors are the same, too.
00:27:51The yellow and purple are the same as LSU.
00:27:53That's trademarked.
00:27:54I don't know how he got LSU.
00:27:56Wow.
00:27:57I went down that rabbit hole a long time ago.
00:27:59I was ready for this at the Kentucky Derby and at the Preakness.
00:28:03He ran Farbridge in the American turf and he ran a horse named Kutcher in the Pimlico
00:28:08Special LSU Stable Larry Sarf.
00:28:11And I was really rooting for one of those two horses to win.
00:28:13So I could tell the story of how it's not LSU.
00:28:19Even though it's green and gold color, the colors are the same.
00:28:23Yellow and purple.
00:28:24Purple and gold.
00:28:25Yeah.
00:28:26Anyway.
00:28:27I finally Randy'd Randy.
00:28:28Yes.
00:28:29Okay.
00:28:30Well, I learned something listening to you guys there.
00:28:31Hey, a really cool story Saturday night at Prairie Meadows and jockey Cindy Murphy, 61
00:28:38years old, had never won in her entire career a graded stakes race.
00:28:43And she guides Crypto Moe to win in the grade three Iowa Oaks.
00:28:49And by the way, that horse after that race was sold at Fasig-Tipton, the Horses Racing
00:28:53Age Sale for $500,000.
00:28:55And we'll wind up in the Brad Cox barn now.
00:28:59But boy, you know, what a perseverance still riding to that age, 2000 wins.
00:29:03Zoe, I'm wondering, she wrote a lot in the Midwest back in the era where you were riding.
00:29:09Have your paths crossed?
00:29:10Oh, yeah.
00:29:11I know Cindy very, very well.
00:29:13In fact, I can remember going up to Prairie Meadows in 2000.
00:29:17I just lost the bug.
00:29:18And I think it had been a month since I'd actually won a race.
00:29:22And I went up to ride the Prairie Meadow Oaks.
00:29:26And I actually won and paid like $60.
00:29:28I don't know how we managed to win it, but we won it.
00:29:31And Cindy was there.
00:29:32She'd already won a thousand races by that time.
00:29:35She started in 1986.
00:29:38And then she got hurt a couple of years later, and it seemed like she would never come back.
00:29:44She had a couple of kids.
00:29:45I think she's got like five grandkids now.
00:29:47And the fact, her longevity, the fact that she has persevered is just amazing.
00:29:54She is a wonderful human being.
00:29:57She's an asset to the sport.
00:29:58She still looks really good on a horse at 61 years old.
00:30:01She rode that horse absolutely perfectly.
00:30:04And it was the same horse that hurt her.
00:30:06I think she went to the hospital last year with broken ribs, fractured pelvis, you name
00:30:11it.
00:30:12She broke it last year and still came back.
00:30:14You know, if it was me and I'd won my first graded stake and my 2000th winner, I would
00:30:19have dropped the mic in the winner's circle and said, see you later.
00:30:23Thank you very much.
00:30:24I'm out.
00:30:25I'm just completely be done.
00:30:27She is going to retire, she said at the end of the prairie meadows.
00:30:31At the end of the day, but I would have dropped the mic right then and be like, yeah, I'm
00:30:34done.
00:30:35I'm out.
00:30:36Thank you very much.
00:30:37Yeah.
00:30:38What I thought was kind of neat reading that story, just as an example of her longevity.
00:30:42She won the very first race in the history of prairie meadows, 1989, race one of prairie
00:30:50meadows.
00:30:51What a way to go out.
00:30:53Yeah.
00:30:54Yeah.
00:30:55I would have been done.
00:30:56Yeah.
00:30:57But kudos to Cindy and her family and Travis and they got a nice nest egg there.
00:31:01He van that filly all the way down there to Fasig-Tipton himself and that she made five
00:31:06hundred thousand.
00:31:07Yeah.
00:31:08Really awesome story.
00:31:09Good for her.
00:31:10Meanwhile, the TD and Riders room is also brought to you by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders
00:31:16Association on opening day at Saratoga.
00:31:19Two Pennsylvania breads, both debut winners against Open Company, will be running in the
00:31:23Schuylerville stakes for two-year-old fillies.
00:31:26You've got Carmelina, co-owned by Cassius King and trained by Robert Reed, who broke
00:31:29her maiden at Parks June the 18th by five and three quarters length.
00:31:34She'll be ridden from the rail by Jose Ortiz.
00:31:36And then there's the Manor Stables Dancing Diana, trained by James Lawrence, who won
00:31:40her debut June 17th at Delaware.
00:31:43That one by seven and a half length.
00:31:45She is a daughter of Bolt Dorough.
00:31:47She'll be ridden by Johnny Velasquez.
00:31:49Both Pennsylvania breads, both in the Schuylerville.
00:31:52The 2023 Pennsylvania bread stakes schedule continues next Monday, July 17th with a one
00:31:58hundred thousand dollar Malvern Rose stakes for three-year-old fillies and six and a half
00:32:02furlongs on the Tepita and all the Pennsylvania bread stakes program this year.
00:32:07Twenty nine stakes worth over four million dollars.
00:32:12The PA Horse Breeders Association presents the Pennsylvania Stallion Series.
00:32:17Six races for PA-sired, PA-bred two-year-olds at Parks.
00:32:21Two one hundred thousand dollar contests at five and a half furlongs on August 21st, PA
00:32:27Day at the Races.
00:32:28September 23rd, PA Derby Day, as two races at six and a half furlongs, both with a one
00:32:34hundred fifty thousand dollar purse.
00:32:36And in December, two races going long, each worth two hundred thousand dollars.
00:32:40For more, go to pabred.com.
00:32:43The fastest horse of the week is brought to you by the fast stallions at One Star Farm.
00:32:47And one of those is a first crop stallion who got his first winner this week.
00:32:53That would be Audible, the winner of the Florida Derby back in the day, if you remember that.
00:32:58Not that long ago.
00:32:59His inaugural winner was on Sunday at Hawthorne Racecourse by the name of Dorothy Crowfoot.
00:33:06Bay Philly was the three to five favorite trained by Larry Ravelli, who always dominates
00:33:11up in Chicago.
00:33:12He, of course, also the trainer of two fills.
00:33:14Dorothy Crowfoot controlled the pace throughout and won going away by six and one half lengths.
00:33:21Daughter of Audible, who stands stud at One Star Farm.
00:33:25Now, the fastest horse of the week, Charge It, who won the Suburban States on the undercard
00:33:31of the Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks on Saturday at Belmont Park.
00:33:34A 106 buyer speed figure for that four and three quarters length win.
00:33:39The company, Charge It, faced not too good in the Suburban.
00:33:43He was the three to five favorite, but maybe this is going to be the turning point for
00:33:49Charge It.
00:33:50If you remember last year, he won the Dwyer by 23 lengths, got a 111 buyer.
00:33:55People predicted big things then for the Son of Tappet owned by Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill
00:33:59Farm.
00:34:00He may not have lived up to those expectations, but maybe the Suburban will be a turnaround
00:34:05and we'll see even more good things from Charge It coming up in the future.
00:34:08This week's fastest horse of the week.
00:34:13Now the TDN Writer's Room is brought to you also by the Green Group tax accounting and
00:34:18advisory firm specializing in the thoroughbred industry and designed to save you taxes.
00:34:24Welcome in now the Green Group guest of the week from the New York Racing Association,
00:34:28TV analyst and handicapper, Andy Serling.
00:34:31It's good to have him back here on the TDN Writer's Room podcast.
00:34:34He's the Green Group guest of the week.
00:34:35Andy, about this time last year, we were talking to you and everybody is always looking at
00:34:40the figures out of Saratoga, the handle figures, the attendance figures.
00:34:44I look back at the podcast from last year and you wondered after a stellar 2021, can
00:34:50we do it again?
00:34:52You were a little bit worried that maybe the meat had peaked.
00:34:56That only didn't peak.
00:34:57It was up 7.7%.
00:34:59Now granted, only 17 races the entire meat were off the turf, but can we see another
00:35:04increase this year?
00:35:06How is it that Saratoga never seems to peak?
00:35:08Well, it's going to peak when we have more rain.
00:35:12You can cut it any way you want, but as you said, we only lost 17 turf races last year.
00:35:17We lose a couple of Saturdays and it's going to have a majorly deleterious effect on our
00:35:22overall handle.
00:35:23Unfortunately, we're only as smart as the weather on some situations, but listen, the
00:35:28backstretch is full this year.
00:35:30There's 1,800 horses in the backstretch.
00:35:31Obviously, we have Belmont Park to go on as well.
00:35:36People love Saratoga.
00:35:37What's not to love?
00:35:38We've all been to Saratoga.
00:35:39We all like Saratoga.
00:35:40You don't want to sit around and say we're going to do as well or better than we did
00:35:43last year because weather is going to play a major role in that, but I don't see anything
00:35:46happening that's going to severely negatively affect us outside of weather situations where
00:35:51it rains a decent amount or especially lose some Saturdays, but other than that, there's
00:35:56a great interest in Saratoga and it remains a place that people just love to go to, so
00:36:01no reason not to be optimistic or hopeful that things will go well, but you don't want
00:36:05to get caught up in that thing because we're geniuses because the weather is good.
00:36:09We're idiots because the weather is bad or certain outside effects.
00:36:12I think Saratoga is a magical place and it's magical in horse racing too and that it seems
00:36:16to continue to do well regardless of what the environment is.
00:36:20Not that we're trying to age you or anything, but I don't know the answer to this.
00:36:25I know you pretty well.
00:36:26I'm curious.
00:36:27How long has Andy Serling been handicapping or betting on the races at Saratoga?
00:36:3474 was the first summer my family was here.
00:36:37We moved here in the fall of 73 and I went a little bit at the end of the meet, but I
00:36:41didn't start pretending I knew what I was doing until 75, but I was there almost every
00:36:46day in 75.
00:36:47I've missed one day since in over the last 20 plus years for a relative funeral.
00:36:54But otherwise I've been here for now.
00:36:56What is this?
00:36:57Basically it's closing in on 50 years.
00:36:58This would be my 49th year of going there almost every day.
00:37:02I'm ancient.
00:37:03I'm so old I could be as old as Randy.
00:37:06Nobody's as old as Randy on this show.
00:37:11He's got a year or two margin on me, I think.
00:37:17Andy, what is your favorite part of the Saratoga meet?
00:37:20Of all the seasons that you've been here at Saratoga, what is the one thing that you look
00:37:25forward to each and every year?
00:37:28I wouldn't narrow it down to one, Zoe.
00:37:30There's so many great things.
00:37:31I mean, one of the really nice things about Saratoga is all the friends you make over
00:37:36the years, and I have a lot of years here and I have friends, for instance, my friend
00:37:39Bob who lives in Chicago, who I met when I was a little kid and he comes almost every
00:37:43summer lately.
00:37:44He missed a couple summers, but he comes to the family, you remember, before his kids
00:37:47were born.
00:37:48Now they're grown up and all that stuff, but I look forward to seeing people and people
00:37:51you just haven't seen in a while that show up and people you've gotten to know over the
00:37:54years because the biggest change, obviously, in racing, which we've all felt in the last
00:38:0030 years almost, is that people don't go to the track much because they can play at home.
00:38:03They watch on their phones.
00:38:05They play from home.
00:38:06They watch on TV, et cetera, and Bill and I go back to the 90s when the press box was
00:38:11full and there were a lot of people at the track, but they come to Saratoga.
00:38:14All of these people that have dispersed that you don't really see on a regular basis come
00:38:18to Saratoga.
00:38:19That's one of the really nicest things is friends that you don't see much during the
00:38:22year or at all coming together in Saratoga.
00:38:25That's the nicest part, but also the town itself, walking downtown and being able to
00:38:30go down to have a drink or get something to eat and seeing people and seeing friends.
00:38:35My mom lives nearby, which is wonderful, so it's the entire experience of Saratoga, which
00:38:39obviously the track is a big part of it and it permeates most things, but it's everything.
00:38:44It's all-inclusive and that just makes it a really special place, at least for me and
00:38:48I think for that many people, and that's, I think, why people come back here.
00:38:51Yeah, Zoe, Andy and I are so old.
00:38:53We remember the days when newspapers mattered and they actually covered horse racing.
00:38:58Wasn't that a great time to be alive?
00:39:00I'm not a part of killing that, Bill, so own it, you know?
00:39:03Thanks a lot, Andy.
00:39:05Yes, okay.
00:39:07To me, and I'll make this statement, I'll see if you agree with it, I think the Travers
00:39:12is now the second most important three-year-old race on the calendar.
00:39:14I think it has actually surpassed the Preakness in Belmont, and this year's Travers looks
00:39:18like it's going to be sensational with everybody who matters pointing for that race.
00:39:23What do you think about my beginning statement there?
00:39:26And come Travers Day, who are the horses you're going to be looking for and who do you think
00:39:30emerges in a division right now that's obviously very wide open?
00:39:33Well, the caveat to what you said is if the Derby winner wins the Preakness, the Belmont
00:39:37Stakes becomes the single most important race of the year.
00:39:39And I'm not saying it's because it's a Naira, it's just the opportunity.
00:39:43It may turn out to be a relatively unimportant race if the Triple Crown contender doesn't
00:39:47win it, but at that point it becomes extremely important.
00:39:52I think it's always had a lot of importance, but obviously with horses making less starts
00:39:56and more and more horses skipping the Preakness, skipping the Belmont Stakes, so you don't
00:40:00have the same rivalries continuing to the Triple Crown.
00:40:04And then everybody, Jim Dandy, various races around the country, the Haskell, but they
00:40:10come together in the Travers and it's going to be the race that matters the most.
00:40:13So I think it's a reasonable point to make about the way racing's evolved.
00:40:18And I don't think anybody's considering, thankfully, the Pennsylvania Derby to be the be-all and
00:40:22end-all as it's the last grade one restricted to three-year-olds at least going long, the
00:40:26Malibu obviously at the end of the year.
00:40:28But yeah, I think it's also because of Saratoga, it's coming right at the end of the season
00:40:32basically and it's sort of a culmination of a whole lot of stuff that's happened during
00:40:35the year.
00:40:36I think the year separates, right?
00:40:38Belmont Stakes in a way, that day has become a sort of mid-year Breeders' Cup.
00:40:42And then things quiet down for a couple of minutes and then as you get to Saratoga, you
00:40:45get to Delmar, I think the racing starts really cranking up again as you head into the fall,
00:40:50all pointing towards the Breeders' Cup.
00:40:51So it's kind of arguably you could say the beginning of Saratoga is the beginning of
00:40:55the second half of the season.
00:40:56It's coinciding with Delmar, I'm not trying to mitigate, say we're so important, they're
00:41:00both of us in a certain way and going into the fall with Keeneland and big races and
00:41:04then the Breeders' Cup.
00:41:05So it kicks it off in the Saratoga race, the Travers is in fact that sort of mid-summer
00:41:09derby or it's actually a late summer derby really.
00:41:11I tell people this all the time, I think I've told you as well.
00:41:15One of the things that makes you so good at what you do is that you do the work.
00:41:20You put in the hours, you put in the homework that it takes.
00:41:23There are no shortcuts in this game of handicapping, but along with that at Saratoga, it has got
00:41:30to be an exhausting week for you personally.
00:41:34We are going to feel sorry for you being at Saratoga every day, but give us an idea of
00:41:39an average Saratoga day in the life of Andy Serwer.
00:41:44Feel sorry for me because I have to live with myself, but don't feel sorry for me for having
00:41:48my job.
00:41:49I'm the luckiest man in the world, along with Bill Walton apparently.
00:41:53But my feeling is, and I do this during the year, but it's even more important to do it
00:41:58in Saratoga is to always be as far ahead as you can be.
00:42:02So we draw, you know, I'll start with, we draw Wednesday on Friday, Thursday on Saturday,
00:42:10Friday on Sunday, and then Wednesday we draw Saturday and then Thursday we draw Sunday.
00:42:14So when that card comes out, let's just start with a Friday, the next Wednesday.
00:42:18I try to get some work done on the track.
00:42:20Usually I'm on the later show, but sometimes on the earlier show, the earlier show it's
00:42:23obviously easier because I can get more work done, but I try to make my run through as
00:42:26quickly as I can.
00:42:28I come home from the track, the show's over 6.30, I get home about 10 minutes and I usually
00:42:33work until about 8, 8.15 before I head out to dinner.
00:42:36And I just work.
00:42:37I just get stuff done.
00:42:38I just try to get preliminary work done using Timeform US, watching replays, going through
00:42:43formulator.
00:42:44Obviously Saratoga, you spend a lot more time on formulator, especially than anything else.
00:42:47You spend a lot more time with replays because there's so many shippers coming in.
00:42:50But remember something, and you know this distinctly, we love handicapping.
00:42:55The part of my job that I love the most is handicapping.
00:42:57I love the puzzle.
00:42:58And so I'm thrilled that I'm in Saratoga.
00:43:00It's a little bit onerous at times, but I love doing the work, but you make it through
00:43:05formulator.
00:43:06I'm usually not done with that stuff when I go out and I head out to dinner and I usually
00:43:09end up coming home 10.30, 11 or something.
00:43:11Occasionally I eat earlier and then I do the work after that, but I'll come home, I'll
00:43:14do another hour and a hour and a half if I can.
00:43:16If I'm not sleeping in the middle of the night and I'm tossing and turning, I get up and
00:43:19go to my computer and get an hour's worth of work done.
00:43:22And then I get up in the morning, I do a little more work.
00:43:24I have breakfast with my mom every day.
00:43:26I mean, you just do it, right?
00:43:28You just get in that habit of doing it until it gets done.
00:43:31You know, I send in replays for Talking Horses every day, which we also use in the Fox show.
00:43:35I try to get them in at night so that the people who paint them can get as head of it
00:43:39as they can, you know, so they're not bogged down because there's so much behind the scenes
00:43:43work done.
00:43:44And hopefully by the time I get to mid-afternoon the next day, I've finished my picks.
00:43:50No, they're not completely done.
00:43:51And remember, I can come to Monday and Tuesday now with two days off and put aside five hours
00:43:56between the two days if need be.
00:43:58I'd like it to be no hours, but if it's two, three, four, five, eight, whatever, I'll do
00:44:02that to finish up.
00:44:03And so when I wake up on Wednesday morning or I go to the track on Wednesday, I'm done
00:44:07with Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and I'm ready for Saturday.
00:44:11It's a lot of work, but it's a great, great job that I truly enjoy.
00:44:15And I think one of the things that makes my job so much easier is that the people I work
00:44:22with year round, Greg Wolf, Maggie Wolfendale, Acacia Clement, Richard Migliore, these guys,
00:44:29they're super prepared.
00:44:30I never have to worry that I'm going to be on.
00:44:33And so in that case, throughout the year, I work with people I have great respect for
00:44:37the amount of work and preparation they do.
00:44:39Listen, it's racing.
00:44:40We're going to be wrong.
00:44:41We're going to say dumb things.
00:44:42We're going to say things we wish we hadn't said.
00:44:44But at least I don't feel like the core group of people, especially I work with, and that's
00:44:47not to say that people I work with in the summer also aren't prepared, but this is the
00:44:51core group that's here 12 months a year.
00:44:55And it's nice to work with people that I feel like they're doing everything possible to
00:44:59do as well as they can to whatever that requires, whether it's more work, less work, who cares?
00:45:05So at Saratoga, I mean, I can get away with three hours of aqueduct.
00:45:09I can get away with four hours, maybe less at Belmont.
00:45:12Saratoga is a lot more, but, you know, it's great.
00:45:14Saratoga is great.
00:45:16Andy, what is your handicapping angle?
00:45:19What is your go-to tool?
00:45:21Because I'm trying to get some info here.
00:45:24What is it that you look at when you're handicapping races?
00:45:27Come on, Andy.
00:45:28I don't have one.
00:45:30I think that different races are going to ask different questions.
00:45:35And I think in discussing a race, especially, remember, a lot of the work we do, and everybody
00:45:40here is familiar with this, is work you do for television, right?
00:45:43It's work you do to prepare to have things to say.
00:45:45If you were just handicapping the card for your betting, you might look at it a little
00:45:49differently because you wouldn't have to look up all these pedigrees.
00:45:52You wouldn't have to have all these things necessarily to talk about.
00:45:55But to me, you have to find out the theme of a race.
00:45:59And maybe the theme of a race is the favorite just overlays the field.
00:46:02But maybe the theme of the race is the favorite's very vulnerable.
00:46:04The theme of a race, it's very simple stuff.
00:46:06It's not complicated.
00:46:07There's a lot of speed.
00:46:08There's no speed.
00:46:09Things like that.
00:46:10The horse who's going to be in front is coming off a bad trip, certain things.
00:46:14And I try to evaluate based on what the race, the questions the race is asking me.
00:46:20And if you get the right questions, you have a better chance of getting the right answers.
00:46:24And so I think that speed figures matter above anything else.
00:46:29Because at the end of the day, I can come up with some sort of esoteric idea.
00:46:33But if I look through the horse's lifetime, and the horse has never run a race that's
00:46:36fast enough to beat three or four horses in this race, the likelihood of that horse winning
00:46:40is very slight.
00:46:42Because it can run really well, and one or two of those horses can beat it, right?
00:46:45So you do want to have an idea of how fast they are.
00:46:48Unfortunately, the whole world knows how fast horses are now.
00:46:50There's a bevy of very good speed figures, obviously, including the buyers in the forum,
00:46:55available to everybody.
00:46:57So you can't just say, oh, I'm going to find the fastest horse anymore.
00:47:01I look at trips.
00:47:02I look at how I think the race is going to set up.
00:47:04It becomes more problematic in New York, where riders have a tendency to be less aggressive.
00:47:10If one guy goes the lead, they just sort of abdicate.
00:47:13And I find that often I'll watch tracks, like when we do Oakland in the winter, I use the
00:47:17time form pace projector, which I think is a really interesting tool, both for telling
00:47:21you how they see the race setting up, but also for you to ask the question, do I see
00:47:25it that way?
00:47:26Why do I disagree?
00:47:27Why do I think that's wrong?
00:47:28What am I missing?
00:47:29What are they missing?
00:47:30Anything that promotes thought is helpful.
00:47:32But in those races, very frequently, the pace projector looks very similar to what I'm looking
00:47:37at down the backstretch.
00:47:39In New York, it's frequently not the case.
00:47:42But nonetheless, you try to get a feeling for that.
00:47:44There's a whole lot of different things that may come into play in a race.
00:47:47Maybe it's a maiden turf race, and there's a really interesting horse that has a pedigree
00:47:52to move forward on grass that's been terrible on the dirt.
00:47:55So maybe that becomes the reason.
00:47:56I don't care what kind of numbers the horse ran on the dirt.
00:47:59Now it's in the turf.
00:48:00I believe in figures.
00:48:01I believe in watching races, trying to understand how the races in the past were run, and how
00:48:05they affected the horses in it, and hopefully how that may change today or may affect it
00:48:10today.
00:48:11But I don't want to say that I have any one angle.
00:48:13I'd like to think I'm trying to use as much information as I can.
00:48:17Formulator has so much information out there, so much stuff you can look at.
00:48:21There's the workouts.
00:48:22In Saratoga, people like to watch workouts.
00:48:24So much information available now, which makes it hard to win because people can get it,
00:48:28but it's there for you to decide what is most important for a given race.
00:48:32So I don't want to cement myself any one thing.
00:48:36That answers your question at all.
00:48:38Yes, it does.
00:48:40Can you handicap the trainers for us?
00:48:41Because you have an opinion.
00:48:43I know you're very close to the Chad Brown bound.
00:48:45Who's going to be leading trainer this year?
00:48:48Probably Chad Brown or Todd Fletcher.
00:48:49I think it's magnetic to say the two of them.
00:48:51Melinda Rice has claimed an enormous amount of horses at Churchill Downs.
00:48:55So even though she had this big meet at Belmont where she won, she's got a lot of horses from
00:48:58Churchill. She hasn't run.
00:48:59So I don't know that she'll have the arsenal and will have the races for her arsenal of
00:49:04horses for her to necessarily compete for the trainer's title.
00:49:07But I think she'll be a bit of a factor.
00:49:10But at the end of the day, it's going to probably come down to those two guys.
00:49:16And it'll turn it'll probably hinge really on how many good two year olds they have, how
00:49:20many maiden races they win.
00:49:22I mean, Todd Fletcher is capable.
00:49:23And we've seen in the past of winning a boatload of maiden races.
00:49:26If he doesn't, he's not going to compete for the title.
00:49:29But the other thing is that one thing that Todd is exceptionally good at is being prepared
00:49:34for off the turf.
00:49:35It seems like like MTOs and rain off races, Todd's usually in there with somebody.
00:49:41And it's something that he usually has an advantage on Chad Brown.
00:49:44And also, let's face it, Chad's strength is often turf racing.
00:49:48So if we get a lot of rain, they come off the turf.
00:49:50It's going to cost Chad wins and probably give Todd some wins.
00:49:53So Chad loses five and Todd gains three.
00:49:56Todd's probably going to win the title because that's an eight win swing.
00:49:59So that's when it can happen.
00:50:00But I think at this point where we stand because of numbers, it's hard to see it.
00:50:05You know, I don't know if it's between the two of them, they're 90, 95 percent chance
00:50:09to win it.
00:50:10And maybe Linda Rice is the bulk of the others.
00:50:12If there's somebody else out there that's going to be there at the end of the season,
00:50:15I don't know who it is now.
00:50:16Well, Andy, I'll ask the same question from a jockey's perspective.
00:50:19Last year, Irad, easy winner, had 55 wins, Fabian Pratt was second at 41.
00:50:25But now we're coming off a meet where Jose beat his brother at Belmont, has a ton of
00:50:30momentum.
00:50:31How do you think the jockey's race shakes out?
00:50:34I think Irad must be thrilled that Jose now shares his agent and somehow Jose managed
00:50:39to beat him at Belmont.
00:50:40I'm sure that really made him happy.
00:50:42I'm sure it made Steve Rushing happy to have the two leading riders like that.
00:50:46But I'm wondering a little bit at some point.
00:50:48And I think it's a very friendly rivalry between the two.
00:50:51Given that Irad's won four of the last eight and Jose's won three of them, to suggest it's
00:50:56not likely to come down to these two guys is unlikely.
00:50:59Now, this is the first full summer that Jose has been with Steve Rushing.
00:51:03He was with Jimmy Riccio before that.
00:51:05Luis Saez did win that one meet, and I wouldn't count Luis out because he's been riding at
00:51:10Churchill.
00:51:11And if some of these Churchill trainers do well that he's riding for, I think he has
00:51:14a chance to win it for the second time.
00:51:16Listen, Flavio Pratt and Joel Rosario are guys that have a chance.
00:51:19I just don't know that they'll get the same kind of mounts to be able to win a jockey
00:51:23title.
00:51:24They might win a lot of stakes.
00:51:25They might win bigger races.
00:51:27But it's tough to go past the two Ortiz's and perhaps Luis Saez's because of the numbers
00:51:31recently.
00:51:32Right.
00:51:33How big a favorite Irad is?
00:51:34I don't know.
00:51:35I made a bet with Greg Wolf.
00:51:36He said he was a four to five favorite, so he bet me 200.
00:51:40I'm insisting it's a charity bet.
00:51:42He wins 160 if Irad wins, and I win 200 if Irad loses.
00:51:46So not that I'm rooting against Irad, but...
00:51:51The Irad-Jose-exact-a-box has always been effective at Saratoga, although it usually
00:51:55doesn't pay very much when it does.
00:52:00Another handicapping policy wonk kind of question.
00:52:04We know Saratoga, you've alluded to it, is sort of a melting pot.
00:52:09You'll get a lot of horses from Ellis Park and from other areas in the Northeast.
00:52:14But what I'm curious about is how you view the majority, which is those horses that come
00:52:20from Belmont Park.
00:52:21Let's take Belmont Dirt, OK?
00:52:24You're talking about a mile and a half oval, presumably over a track a little deeper than
00:52:30what they see at Saratoga.
00:52:31Do you take the form from Belmont Park at face value when you're handicapping races
00:52:37at Saratoga, or do you maybe look for more speed at Saratoga, a mile and an eighth oval?
00:52:46How do you handle that?
00:52:48Well, I think you have to judge how the track is playing, and I do the track trends for
00:52:54the website and the program every day.
00:52:56And I feel that Belmont, for the most part, was very fair.
00:53:00This is something you can discuss with your friend Jerry Bailey.
00:53:03The riders ride Belmont like the rail is dead.
00:53:07There's no evidence whatsoever, and then horses will come up the rail and do fine.
00:53:10I think some of it's because they don't feel you get as punished by losing ground at Belmont
00:53:14the way you do at Saratoga or at Aqueduct.
00:53:18And I think one of the biggest changes you could potentially have from Belmont to Saratoga
00:53:23are two-turn races, right?
00:53:25The mile and the 16th routes up in Belmont, where with the extended run, the paces are
00:53:30going to be faster, and they're going to be more beneficial to closers because of the
00:53:35race dynamics, whereas the mile and eighth race at Saratoga, they're going to feature
00:53:40slower paces, and they're going to be more beneficial to front runners.
00:53:43So I think that's something to keep an eye on.
00:53:45We had a situation two years ago in particular where I think it appeared to be a big speed
00:53:50track, but I don't think it was a speed track.
00:53:53I think what it was was an...
00:53:54I'm not a big kickback guy.
00:53:56I think that people overuse it massively, but I think we had a situation with heavy
00:54:00kickback two years ago that was inhibiting closers.
00:54:03So it was helping the speeds because horses weren't able to make the runs.
00:54:07So it appeared to be a speed track, but it really wasn't.
00:54:09It was the nature of the track was helping speeds, but more because it inhibited closers.
00:54:14I thought that mitigated a bunch last year, but I think there's probably a likelihood
00:54:18that speed is a little more friendly here on dirt, certainly the two-turn races are
00:54:23because of the paces.
00:54:25But isn't dirt race really conducive to speed in general?
00:54:28And we don't see the kind of fast paces maybe you used to see.
00:54:31You saw in California, we even saw in New York many years ago.
00:54:34So I think it's more conducive to speed.
00:54:37But the thing is, if the weather's okay, we're going to run six races on the turf basically
00:54:44every day.
00:54:45So sometimes seven.
00:54:47So the dirt stuff doesn't matter as much.
00:54:50And I think the bigger differences are the turf courses are very different here.
00:54:54Belmont Park, the Widener plays much like the dirt, right?
00:54:58The mile-mile 16th race has a little dog leg, but it's a very fair course for closers.
00:55:03And I know that this was a point of discussion.
00:55:06The outside closers do well in those races because the paces are often faster and you
00:55:10don't get as punished losing a little bit of ground on one turn at Belmont Park.
00:55:15So those races are often, when they play fairly, they have a much more favorable dynamic for
00:55:22closers.
00:55:23Whereas up here with two turns, the pace is maybe a little slower.
00:55:27The trips will be a little bit different.
00:55:28So perhaps up here, the turf races, because they're all basically two, sometimes three,
00:55:33except for the sprints, they're going to be more favorable to forwardly placed horses.
00:55:38Not always the case.
00:55:40And also, obviously, you have to keep in mind, four-star day of the week, the rail comes
00:55:44down in the inner that week for the first time.
00:55:46The first time it's zero to homie.
00:55:48And every year that week, and sometime even the next when they leave it down, you have
00:55:53to be saving ground to be effective.
00:55:56And that creates very difficult situation for handicapping a given race, but it creates
00:56:00trips for betting horses back going forward.
00:56:02So it's a double-edged sword.
00:56:04That's a big factor here.
00:56:05They take the rails down a bit at Belmont.
00:56:07It can mitigate things.
00:56:08I think the Belmont Derby and Oaks were dramatically affected by the rails coming down for the
00:56:12first time since Belmont weekend and saving ground was at a premium in those races and
00:56:16helped some and hurt others.
00:56:18So that's the thing to take into account.
00:56:20But I think the turf courses being different probably plays a bigger role than the dirt.
00:56:24Does that make sense?
00:56:25Yes.
00:56:26Yeah, it really does.
00:56:27Andy, what do you do for fun on your one day off you might have?
00:56:32And for people that have never been to Saratoga, where do they need to go?
00:56:36Give us an overarching view on what you do, where you go, and where's a good spot to eat.
00:56:43I'm going wherever you are, Zoe.
00:56:45All right, let's go.
00:56:48I usually wait for Randy to come.
00:56:50Are you coming at all this year, Randy?
00:56:53Not currently with Andy Beyer on the last week of the meet.
00:56:59Excellent.
00:57:00Excellent.
00:57:01So I have lots of fun in Saratoga.
00:57:03I mean, first of all, my job is fun.
00:57:05Let's not sit around and think that I'm suffering or working hard.
00:57:09Working hard is good, by the way.
00:57:11There's nobody here that hasn't worked hard in their lives.
00:57:13And it's a privilege to work hard.
00:57:16But I go out at night for dinner and I meet friends or sometimes I don't feel like talking
00:57:21to anybody, sit by myself and eat by myself at a bar.
00:57:24I see my mom every day for breakfast, which is wonderful.
00:57:27She's 91 and she's amazing.
00:57:29And sometimes I stop by and see her on the way out.
00:57:32And I spend a lot of my Mondays and Tuesdays spending time with her as well.
00:57:35I'll go to the movies occasionally on a dark day.
00:57:38It would be nice if there was something good to see, though I'm waiting for Oppenheimer
00:57:41like everybody else.
00:57:43And I'll see Barbie with you, Zoe.
00:57:45That'd be great.
00:57:46I'd love to see it.
00:57:48You can come to Oppenheimer with my mom.
00:57:50She's big on Barbie.
00:57:52And I tend to eat, as Randy knows, in the same place quite frequently because I'm happy there.
00:57:59And you find your sort of happy place in Saratoga.
00:58:02And I go and meet friends for drinks and do things.
00:58:04And I don't know.
00:58:06I go to Broadway.
00:58:08I go to the bookstore, the Northshire, this great bookstore in Broadway.
00:58:12And I went to Saratoga Tea and Honey and loaded up on tea for the meet.
00:58:16But, you know, I think I lead a relatively normal life.
00:58:19And I try to get out and have some fun.
00:58:21Andy, before we let you go, one very important question.
00:58:24I know you're a Jeopardy aficionado.
00:58:26Could you believe that guy last night that bet all that money and couldn't come up with Tommy John?
00:58:31I have to admit that I rarely see it up here because I'm busy doing other things.
00:58:37I also have a TV here which doesn't have cable.
00:58:42And I have to use a Roku stick to hook up Spectrum app on it.
00:58:47And, yeah, me and a Roku stick, that's not happening.
00:58:50I have to have Dave O'Rourke come over and hook it up.
00:58:52He's smarter at that stuff than I am.
00:58:54So I may not see Jeopardy for two months, but I'll be back in New York and seeing it.
00:58:58It was an epic fail last night.
00:59:01So what was the fail specifically?
00:59:03So the guy was way ahead, and he had the daily double.
00:59:08And he could have just sat still.
00:59:10He was going to win the thing.
00:59:11He bet almost his entire bankroll.
00:59:13The question was Java Chamberlain, the New York Yankees, was injured in 2004 or whatever.
00:59:20And he had this kind of surgery named after a former baseball player.
00:59:25Oh, no.
00:59:26He didn't know that?
00:59:27No, and he did not know it.
00:59:28I mean, it was obviously a baseball game in his life.
00:59:31Was baseball the subject?
00:59:34No, even worse.
00:59:36It was a medical category.
00:59:38And the guy's a doctor.
00:59:40Or a resident to be a doctor, just graduated from medical school or something.
00:59:44He ever seen a baseball game?
00:59:46Does he know anything about baseball?
00:59:48Obviously not.
00:59:49He's never been to a baseball game in his life.
00:59:51So I thought he would have got a kick out of that.
00:59:53So it was hell.
00:59:55Even the New York Post had a story about it today.
00:59:57It was a Cliff Clavin moment, in other words.
01:00:00Exactly.
01:00:01Andy, as always, it's so great to have you.
01:00:03I don't know if Saratoga has a color.
01:00:05Whatever that color is, you bleed that color.
01:00:08Andy Serling, who is a great spokesman for horse racing in general and the New York Racing Association and Saratoga.
01:00:14The meet starts on Thursday, a 40-day meet.
01:00:17And it promises to be a great one, as it almost always is.
01:00:20Andy, thanks so much for joining us here today.
01:00:22Thanks for having me.
01:00:23Appreciate it.
01:00:24Anytime.
01:00:25As this week's Green Group Guest of the Week, Andy Serling will receive a free one-hour tax consultation with the Green Group.
01:00:32For more information on how the Green Group can help you, go to www.greenco.com.
01:01:03Like Eclipse Award-winning champions Jay Walk and Wonder Wheel.
01:01:06His DJ Stable competes at the highest level and has received the game's most prestigious honors.
01:01:12Len Green's in-depth, hands-on industry knowledge, combined with cutting-edge tax-saving strategies,
01:01:18has produced positive results for his clientele and has made the Green Group the top-rated accounting and tax firm in the thoroughbred business.
01:01:26For a confidential and complimentary consultation, contact us at 732-634-5100.
01:01:33Or visit our website at www.greenco.com.
01:01:37The Green Group, proven strategies to save you taxes.
01:01:42With some of the fullest fields in the country and quality racing year-round,
01:01:47there's never been a better time to reap the rewards of breeding and racing in Kentucky.
01:01:53Purse money in Kentucky is at an all-time high.
01:01:56As is average purse per race, outpacing California, Florida, and New York.
01:02:02Kentucky breads. Breed them. Raise them. Race them.
01:02:07We all win.
01:02:12Breeders' Cup Classic winners are Bread in Kentucky.
01:02:16Congratulations to the connections of West Willpower, winner of the Stephen Foster this year at Ellis Park.
01:02:22A win and you're in race for the Breeders' Cup Classic.
01:02:25Kentucky breads. Breed them. Raise them. Race them.
01:02:29We all win.
01:02:31We're recording this on Tuesday. Looking forward to opening day at Saratoga on Thursday.
01:02:36Of course, the Schuylerville, the traditional opening day feature at Saratoga.
01:02:41Friday, a couple of stakes races. No graded stakes races.
01:02:44But as you would come to expect from Saratoga, a huge card on Saturday.
01:02:49The grade one Diana tops the card. The Kelso and the Sanford.
01:02:54And as is usually the question in the Diana, it's not which trainer will win, but which Chad Brown horse will win.
01:03:02He's won the race seven times, six of his last seven.
01:03:05And we are again recording this before the entries are out.
01:03:08So we apologize if we talk about a horse that isn't entered or something like that.
01:03:12But he's looking to run four in there in Italian market segmentation, fluffy socks and white beam.
01:03:19But in Italian will definitely be the favorite.
01:03:22Matter of fact, Brown told Horse Racing Nation that she is the best horse he has in training, which is saying something.
01:03:29So we'll look to see what Chad Brown can do in the Diana.
01:03:33In Italian will be the favorite there.
01:03:34But take a look at that rover coming in there for Mark Cassie coming back after racing on July 1st at Woodbine.
01:03:42Looked really good that day and beat Mora, Queensplate winner from last year, who is the Canadian Horse of the Year.
01:03:48So Chad Brown looking for his fifth training title in the last six years.
01:03:54Figures to get off to a fast weekend in the Diana.
01:03:58Yeah. Good luck beating an Italian in there, by the way.
01:04:01Also on Saturday, the Sanford.
01:04:03You've got a Steve Asmussen, two-year-old by the name of Gold Sweep, who won the Tremont by nine lengths.
01:04:09Earned a buyer speed figure of 91.
01:04:11He'll be a big favorite in there.
01:04:13Mark Cassie has won in the Sanford as well.
01:04:15That's a pretty good horse called Mind Boy Prince.
01:04:17And then the Kelso, we get a look at Chez Pierre.
01:04:20Remember how impressive Chez Pierre was at Keeneland.
01:04:23I believe it was the maker's Mark Mile where he beats some really good horses in there.
01:04:29So as always, we're just getting off to a flying start at Saratoga with some of the best horses in the world.
01:04:37Yeah. And we'll lead it off on Thursday with the Skylaville.
01:04:40We do have the entries for that.
01:04:42And I mean, a lot of the money is going to be on Wine on Tap for trainer Todd Pletcher coming off a very, very nice debut effort.
01:04:49But what's wrong with Closing Act?
01:04:51I mean, the numbers don't quite stack up, but she's two for two.
01:04:54She's already won a stake.
01:04:55She's a daughter of Munnings.
01:04:57She's trained by Asmussen, ridden by Gafion.
01:04:59She's 10 to 1 in the morning line.
01:05:01Is there a chance she'll be 10 to 1?
01:05:04We shall find out.
01:05:05All right. That's where I'm going.
01:05:07I'm going to try and make some money opening day.
01:05:10Yes. Opening weekend at Saratoga.
01:05:12And of course, we'll catch you up with all the Saratoga action on next week's show.
01:05:15We'll have a lot of fun over these next several weeks talking about Saratoga.
01:05:21The TDN Writers Room is brought to you by XBTV.
01:05:25The XBTV Work of the Week is Defunded.
01:05:28He won the Hollywood Gold Cup, a Grade 1 event back in May.
01:05:32And he was on the work tab this week with a six furlong move in a handy 1, 12, and 3 for trainer Bob Baffert.
01:05:39Defunded also won the Grade 2 Californian this year, was second in the Pegasus and third in the Big Cap.
01:05:45He sure does like Santa Anita.
01:05:47He's been working steadily for his return to the races, which should come in the July 29th.
01:05:51San Diego Handicap at Del Mar, according to Hall of Fame of Bob Baffert.
01:05:57We'll be right back after this message from XBTV.
01:06:22All the thrills.
01:06:26Fraction of the bills.
01:06:31Experience the power of the partnership.
01:06:37Change your life, make new friends, and compete at the highest level of Thoroughbred Racing.
01:06:42West Point Thoroughbreds, the gold standard in racing partnerships.
01:06:46Visit westpointtb.com.
01:06:48TD and Writers Room is brought to you by West Point Thoroughbreds.
01:06:52Joining a West Point partnership can vault you into the world of instant camaraderie.
01:06:57It was a big weekend last weekend for West Point.
01:07:00I'm sure you all had a great weekend.
01:07:12I'm sure this weekend will be big as well.
01:07:14But they had horses running in three graded stakes across the country on Saturday,
01:07:18including Giant Game, who got his first stakes victory for trainer Dale Romans
01:07:22when he went wire-to-wire in the Cornhusker Handicap on the undercard of the Iowa Derby at Prairie Meadows.
01:07:27He could point next to the Whitney at Saratoga.
01:07:30Also on Saturday in the victory ride, Vava ran a really strong third chelame next
01:07:36for the test stakes at Saratoga.
01:07:38Of course, the Whitney and the test both grade ones.
01:07:40West Point is currently also attending all the summer yearling sales,
01:07:44and yearlings will be available for syndication in August.
01:07:47If you are interested, if you'd like syndication information on those new West Point horses,
01:07:52contact Debbie Finley.
01:07:54The email address is debbieatwestpointtb.com.
01:08:00They look forward to having you join the West Point family.
01:08:04That's a wrap on this week's edition of the TDN Writer's Room podcast.
01:08:08I want to thank Randy Moss, Zoe Cabin, my partners on the podcast,
01:08:13Andy Starling, the Green Group Guest of the Week,
01:08:16our co-producers Katie Petruniak and Anthony LaRocca, our editors,
01:08:20Leah LaRocca and Nathan Wilkinson, and our mascot, not Zoe,
01:08:24remember when I said that last week?
01:08:26Our mascot is Lucy.
01:08:28She's dreaming about dinner.
01:08:31There she is.
01:08:33Aren't we old? Aren't we old?