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00:00:00The World's Yearling Sale.
00:00:15Make plans for the Keeneland September Yearling Sale September 13th through the 24th.
00:00:19Visit theworldyearlingsale.com to learn more.
00:00:22Good morning, it is 9.32 Wednesday, September 15th.
00:00:27This is the TDN Writer's Room presented by Keeneland, my name is Joe Bianca, I'm the
00:00:31Associate Editor of the Thoroughbred Daily News and I can't put my finger on it, something
00:00:35seems different about John this week.
00:00:37You know, I was just going to say that, Joe, hi, I'm Bill Finley, Correspondent for Thoroughbred
00:00:41Daily News, and we're very pleased to welcome Gabby Gaudet to join us in the Writer's Room.
00:00:46The same time, don't tell him, don't you ever tell him I said this, you actually kind of
00:00:51miss the guy, the big lunk John Green, huh?
00:00:54Yeah, right.
00:00:56Well, I know I have big shoes to fill, definitely this week, but happy to be on the podcast.
00:01:01Gabby Gaudet here, you've seen me on TVG, Keeneland as well, and also co-host of the
00:01:06new TDN podcast, Let's Talk.
00:01:10One episode down, many, many more to go, but happy to be on with you guys.
00:01:14Although I'm not a writer, so this feels a little bit out of my element.
00:01:18You're not going to have to do that, right?
00:01:20Neither is John Green for that matter.
00:01:21Yeah, I'm not a writer either.
00:01:22So you fit in perfectly in that seat.
00:01:26The TDN Writer's Room is presented by Keeneland, home of the World's Yearling Sale.
00:01:29If you haven't noticed, the Keeneland September Yearling Sale is in full swing, lots of action.
00:01:33We're going to get to it in the first couple of days.
00:01:36Make plans to attend the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, which goes through next Friday,
00:01:39September 24th, and you can view the catalog at theworldyearlingsale.com.
00:01:45So we're thrilled to have Gabby on this week.
00:01:47She is a Keeneland expert, both on the sales and the racing side.
00:01:50Keeneland September kicked off, as I mentioned, on Monday.
00:01:53We've gotten through book one, both sessions of book one, lots of action.
00:01:57I believe 30 horses that were $750,000 and up, a bunch of million-dollar yearlings.
00:02:03There were three the first day.
00:02:04There were six or seven yesterday, so the action has really picked up through the end
00:02:08of book one.
00:02:09Book two starts tomorrow, I believe, after today's dark day.
00:02:12I'm going to toss it to Gabby mostly for this because she knows a lot more than me.
00:02:18She's on the ground.
00:02:19She's at Keeneland.
00:02:20To me, one of the overarching themes and one of the things that I noticed early was Justify
00:02:26and how popular Justify is.
00:02:28You would expect that with a triple crown winner, but he's got, I mean, it seems like
00:02:33every horse that comes in the ring, there's a huge bidding war for him.
00:02:36It's really exciting to now think about seeing his horses on the track next year as two-year-olds.
00:02:41I'm really excited for him in particular because he's a son of Scat Daddy.
00:02:45Scat Daddy was going to be already a superstar sire.
00:02:48He was probably going to be a legendary generational sire.
00:02:51Unfortunately, we lost him too early.
00:02:54I'm really excited to see him carry the flag for Scat Daddy going forward.
00:02:58I think that's one of the reasons that he's so popular.
00:03:01People want that son of Scat Daddy early on.
00:03:05No Name Ever is one of the ones I think of that he already has a stud that's gotten really,
00:03:09really popular.
00:03:10He's at Coolmore in Ireland.
00:03:11He started at €25,000 a couple of years ago.
00:03:14He's already up to €150,000 for his stud fee.
00:03:18I think that's a big part of it.
00:03:19Obviously, the triple crown thing is very attractive for people.
00:03:22These are basically just very, very novice layman's observations.
00:03:28Gabby has the real scoop and has been there.
00:03:31What have been your impressions from the first two days, Gabby?
00:03:34Well, obviously, prep for the Keeneland September sales starts as soon as the book comes out
00:03:39for me in the catalog.
00:03:43Going back to that, when I was looking at the pedigrees, you see a lot of Justifies.
00:03:48Obviously, we've seen a lot of people have confidence in breeding to him from the get-go.
00:03:56That's why we see them show up in book one, but also the physicals.
00:04:02These horses are absolutely gorgeous.
00:04:05I think that's what's been really attractive to buyers so far.
00:04:08On top of that, we've seen a lot of people come to the sale this year with the intention
00:04:17of buying those classic pedigrees.
00:04:20Obviously, we see that with Justify, him being a triple crown winner, BSW Bloodstock.
00:04:27They have a new Colts partnership, obviously the other partnerships that have been active
00:04:32in years past as well, but really paying attention to those classic pedigrees.
00:04:37Even in the presence of people like Hideyuki Mori, he's taking several of his Justifies
00:04:44back to Japan.
00:04:45He even mentioned that he thought that they would run well on the turf in Japan.
00:04:50I think Justify is just hitting many different markets.
00:04:57I think he's going to wind up being a pretty versatile stallion, as many of these buyers
00:05:01think.
00:05:03Overall, just the first two sessions of book one, yeah, they've been strong.
00:05:09It's been encouraging to see some new buyers be in the marketplace as well.
00:05:14Yeah.
00:05:15That was one of the things that I noticed as well.
00:05:17I just want to correct myself.
00:05:18The Dark Day is Friday.
00:05:19They move around the Dark Days a little bit.
00:05:20We got book two starting today, and then we have book two.
00:05:24Joe, not to interrupt you, but yeah, it's the schedule.
00:05:29The format has completely changed this year.
00:05:33We had two days of book one, two days of book two, which begins Wednesday, Thursday.
00:05:39The first Dark Day is going to be on Friday.
00:05:41Book three starts on Saturday.
00:05:45The new sales team, everybody at Keeneland has incorporated new things this year, including
00:05:50the re-offering of RNAs, which horses that did not sell on Monday came back and sold
00:05:56on Tuesday evening.
00:05:57Some of them did.
00:05:59Yeah, there have been a lot of changes just to add to all the layers of this year's sale.
00:06:04Yeah.
00:06:05We're going to talk to Shannon Arvin, the CEO of Keeneland, a little bit about the sale
00:06:08and what have been the early trends and her early impressions as well.
00:06:13I think there was a lot of diversity in terms of sire power at the top of the list the first
00:06:19couple of days and buying power.
00:06:20I think Gabby makes a good point that I think there are a lot of people that are there this
00:06:26year.
00:06:28Warren is involved last year and, you know, just because of COVID, I think it interrupted
00:06:34the sales season enough that people either sent their representatives or sat it out a
00:06:38little bit more than they normally would.
00:06:40But yeah, this year is a lot of there's a lot of international interest.
00:06:43You mentioned to the U of E Moria was there.
00:06:45Winchell Thoroughbreds got involved the other day.
00:06:47I got a 1.35 million dollar sign of into mischief.
00:06:52Ron Winchell said he's been he's been trying to get it into mischief.
00:06:55It runs well for a while now and hasn't been able to find one.
00:06:58So you really went to the mat for that one.
00:07:00Whisper Hill Farm got involved with tapping yesterday.
00:07:03You know, Mandy Pope loves tapping at a one point three million dollar sign of tap it.
00:07:08Just looking at the rest of the buyers, Mayberry Farm, Courtland Farm, Seahorse Stable, Spendthrift,
00:07:14Coolmore.
00:07:15So really a lot of a lot of diversity at the top of the sale.
00:07:19And it's it's been really exciting.
00:07:20And I think, you know, Gabby, you can speak to this.
00:07:22But how has the feeling been on the grounds in terms of energy as compared to last year?
00:07:29Completely, completely different.
00:07:31And for obvious reasons, there are a lot of people that were bidding online last year
00:07:35that just couldn't make it to the sale physically.
00:07:40And, you know, I think a lot of the international buyers have tried their best to come here
00:07:44to Keeneland.
00:07:45They really, really, really want to be here.
00:07:47Obviously, it's extremely difficult, but Keeneland has worked with them and and vice
00:07:52versa to try to just get some of these international buyers on the grounds.
00:07:56But yeah, I would say the energy is completely different than last year.
00:07:59I think people just didn't really know what to do last year, right?
00:08:04It was something that we were developing.
00:08:08We were developing COVID protocols and procedures and everything just kind of came together
00:08:13in September last year.
00:08:15But this year, it seems like we have a really good blueprint and we're building off of that
00:08:21and just making things a little bit more accessible to buyers just all around.
00:08:25But yeah, even China Horse Club, you know, they have a presence here.
00:08:30I was talking to Tio a couple of days ago, and he was really upset that he wasn't able
00:08:37to be at Keeneland physically last year and was so excited.
00:08:41Like he kept on saying it over and over again.
00:08:43I'm so excited to physically be here this year.
00:08:45And obviously, they've had a big sale so far, not only from a buying standpoint, but also
00:08:51a selling standpoint as well.
00:08:53So it's just good to see some of those familiar faces back, but also the international people
00:08:59coming in and the new buyers.
00:09:01You mentioned Jim and Dana Bernhardt.
00:09:04They're new.
00:09:05I mean, they're new to purchasing yearlings at the September sale, and they already came
00:09:11in hot with a million dollar horse.
00:09:14And they're really, really nice folks from Louisiana.
00:09:17So it's been nice to see some of those new faces as well.
00:09:20Yeah.
00:09:21And I think, you know, this is just my opinion, but we talked last week about how many great
00:09:26performances there were at Sauer-Tilga.
00:09:27It really was an explosive summer in terms of two-year-olds, three-year-olds, sprinters,
00:09:32classic horses.
00:09:33I just felt like there were a ton of really exciting performances.
00:09:35And I think Keeneland September is always a beneficiary of being right after Sauer-Tilga
00:09:42because everybody's so excited about all the horses they've seen on those big stages, run
00:09:46those huge races.
00:09:47And I feel like that's just even more pronounced this year because Sauer-Tilga was such a great
00:09:52meet with so many explosive performances.
00:09:54And now that everybody's able to be back and at Keeneland, yeah, I mean, I imagine the
00:09:59buzz is through the roof and it's been exciting the first couple of days.
00:10:02So, yeah, like I said, book two starts today, today and tomorrow, and then the dark day
00:10:06is Friday and then the sale runs through next Friday.
00:10:09And like I said, we're going to talk to Shannon Arvin in a little bit about all the action.
00:10:13The TDN Writers Room is brought to you by Spendthrift Farms.
00:10:16Spendthrift had a successful book one at Keeneland.
00:10:18Yesterday they landed hit $3.56 an Intimischief filly out of grade one winner Embellished
00:10:23the Lace.
00:10:24I remember her winning the Alabama for the Leblancs for $1.25 million and also Intimischief
00:10:28yesterday became the first stallion to sire three yearlings to bring over a million dollars
00:10:33in the sales rank.
00:10:34In 2021, we've already gone on at length about how Intimischief is unrivaled in the sales
00:10:39space and on the racetrack.
00:10:41We also had a Colt that I mentioned before go for $1.35 million to Winchell Thoroughbreds
00:10:46on Monday.
00:10:47And there'll be a good number of yearlings by the popular first Crab Sire Bolt Dorough.
00:10:51We've talked about him as well and how well received his yearlings have been even this
00:10:55early in the process.
00:10:57There's a bunch of yearlings by him in books two and three coming up, so we can look forward
00:11:00to talking about his results in the Keeneland sales ring next week.
00:11:03We'll be right back after this message from Spendthrift Farm.
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00:11:45Partnerships enable you to spread your ownership across several horses for less than it costs
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00:11:51This increases your racetrack action and your chances for a big horse.
00:11:54Learn more about why West Point Thoroughbreds is the gold standard in racing partnerships
00:11:58at westpointtb.com.
00:12:01So obviously West Point was very busy during book one of Keeneland.
00:12:04They got in on several high class yearlings, including the current sale topper, Stone Street
00:12:09Bread Quality Road, half brother to Midnight Bourbon.
00:12:12Terry Finley said following the sale that the Colt was purchased in partnership with
00:12:15Woodford Racing for $1.6 million and that Stone Street also stayed in for a piece of
00:12:20the horse.
00:12:21So that's always nice when you see the breeders stay in.
00:12:23It shows a lot of confidence.
00:12:24He said the horse is going to go to Shug McGahee, R3 Train's first captain, who's a nice three-year-old
00:12:29for West Point.
00:12:30And they also purchased the Medallia Doral Colt for $575,000 and partnered up on a Quality
00:12:36Road Colt for $510,000 and a $310,000 Malibu Moon Filly.
00:12:42So lots of action for West Point across the board.
00:12:45You know, they got good eyes for talent over there.
00:12:48And obviously they're making more and more splashes at all these sales.
00:12:51And like I said, they currently have the sale topper and I'm sure they're going to get involved
00:12:55much more as well in book two coming up.
00:12:58So it was not a huge weekend racing-wise here.
00:13:01There was a lot of action overseas that we're going to get to in a little bit.
00:13:04But I thought the big story of the weekend was Kentucky Downs.
00:13:07It was five grated steaks one Saturday.
00:13:11You know, I think Kentucky Downs really shows, you know, I'm sure you guys have seen Field
00:13:16of Dreams and the famous line, if you build it, they will come.
00:13:21And that's kind of how I feel about Kentucky Downs, that if you give people big fields
00:13:25and low takeout and you put a lots of purse money into the bettors and the owners will
00:13:30reward you.
00:13:31And obviously it's easier to do with a small six or seven day meet.
00:13:34It's not as easy to do if you're running an entire season.
00:13:38But in general, I think they do things the right way and they've been rewarded for it.
00:13:43The handle numbers came out from this meet over $74 million in handle, which is for six
00:13:49days.
00:13:50That's a gigantic, gigantic number, smashed their old record, which was $59.8 million.
00:13:56So I think, you know, and Saturday, which was the featured day of the meet, the 11 race
00:14:00Calumet turf cup card, they handled over $20 million, which smashed again the former mark
00:14:07of $17.4 million.
00:14:08They had Ron Winchell on a couple of weeks ago to talk about it.
00:14:14And he just talked about the growth of the Kentucky Downs meet and how much more popular
00:14:18it's become.
00:14:19And it takes vision.
00:14:20It takes vision to invest resources into that meet being such a short meet and to make it
00:14:25a marquee place for bettors and for owners.
00:14:28And I think that that's really what they've done, you know, with all the money they've
00:14:32given away.
00:14:33We talked about this with John, that the O'Briens are starting to look a little bit more at
00:14:37running horses at Kentucky Downs.
00:14:38I think the bettors have always, you know, received it well, but I think especially now
00:14:42with the higher quality of fields, you know, pretty much every race is an allowance made
00:14:47in special or a state.
00:14:49There are very few claiming races left.
00:14:51I think it's really become a place for people to, I don't know, get their get their leftover
00:14:55buzz from Saratoga satisfied because it is just absolutely terrific racing and they deserve
00:15:01all the success that's coming to them.
00:15:03And like I said, can we get them a grade one?
00:15:05Can the American Greats Committee give them a grade one?
00:15:07I don't care which it is.
00:15:09Just one of them give them a grade one race.
00:15:11We really enjoy it.
00:15:12But let's hear from Bill and Gabby about their.
00:15:14I would also say, can we get these six hundred thousand dollar ungraded races to at least
00:15:19be grade threes?
00:15:20And so, yeah, the story of Kentucky Downs was not so much what happened on the racetrack.
00:15:24And there's some very good performances maybe in a little bit.
00:15:27We'll talk about how Arklow probably would have won the million dollar race if not getting
00:15:31into a ton of.
00:15:32Well, how about Joel Rosario?
00:15:33Joel Rosario.
00:15:34Oh, yeah.
00:15:35Yeah.
00:15:36Joel Rosario in the meet that he had 17 winners to just obliterate the record.
00:15:40Twelve was the previous record.
00:15:42But, you know, the story is it has been there every preceding year is what's going on from
00:15:47the business standpoint.
00:15:48And you gave the numbers out and these are sensational numbers.
00:15:52This is not for Saratoga or for Delmar.
00:15:54This is for a little obscure race that happens in the middle of a field in rural Kentucky
00:16:00on the Tennessee border.
00:16:01And the thing about it is I don't think they're even close to peaking because what's happening
00:16:05here is everybody now is it's not just Saratoga, Delmar, Keeneland.
00:16:10I think it's now Saratoga, Delmar, Keeneland, Kentucky downs that people are of course players
00:16:14are circling on their calendars.
00:16:17And why would you?
00:16:18You know, there's two facets that go into a good betting product.
00:16:21Number one is low takeout.
00:16:22Actually, I would say three low takeout, big fields and quality racing.
00:16:26And you get they get an A plus mark in all three categories.
00:16:30I think, you know, we talked about a 20 million dollar handle on that Saturday.
00:16:33I think two or three years we'll be talking about a 30 million dollar handle on that Saturday.
00:16:37And yeah, I mean, they really absolutely do things right there.
00:16:42And you know, if anyone, you know, these racetracks out there that are kind of struggling, well,
00:16:47you know, if you're running five horse fields and you got a 24 percent takeout on your exact
00:16:53as well.
00:16:54You know what?
00:16:55Kentucky Downs is showing you why you're struggling, because that is a formula that is just not
00:17:00going to work.
00:17:01So, you know, we pat them on the back a lot on this show and elsewhere.
00:17:05And boy, do they deserve it.
00:17:08And I will say the one thing that I really appreciate about Kentucky Downs and again,
00:17:13I haven't I was on site there this year.
00:17:17I was there last year as well, but prior to I had never been there before.
00:17:22And you guys said it's just a field up the middle of absolutely nowhere.
00:17:26But they it seems like Kentucky Downs, what I think is the most important thing about
00:17:31their product is every year they kind of regroup.
00:17:36They speak about what went wrong, what could have gone right.
00:17:40How do we improve this product for next year?
00:17:43And they actually take steps to go ahead and improve that product.
00:17:46I mean, if you look at the simulcast product, that's been improved.
00:17:51If you look at the structure that's been improved, even something so simple as the removable
00:17:57rail settings.
00:17:58Right.
00:17:59They had they just established the 40 foot rail, 20 foot rail, and then, you know, obviously
00:18:04you can take it down.
00:18:05So there's three different rail settings as well.
00:18:08They added new sod to the turf course just to make it a little bit more safe and, you
00:18:13know, just better for the horses in general.
00:18:17They've added things to the actual experience of being at Kentucky Downs, especially for
00:18:23the owner.
00:18:24So it's not only, you know, the obvious things.
00:18:27When you actually go there, you can see it just progressing from year to year to year.
00:18:33And they actually care.
00:18:34And sometimes we don't see that happen at racetracks in North America racing.
00:18:38Yeah.
00:18:39And yeah, like you said, what's satisfying about it and what's satisfying about seeing
00:18:44them do so well from a business standpoint is that, like you say, they really think about
00:18:49everything they do.
00:18:50They think about the improvements that they're going to make year by year.
00:18:55You can see the planning and the process that's gotten the meat to this point, and that makes
00:19:00it satisfying.
00:19:01And it's really deserved success.
00:19:03And yeah, you know, I've always circled it on my calendar as a horse player, as Bill
00:19:08says, but it's even more important now because of the improvements that they've made.
00:19:13And even just from a presentation standpoint, it used to be very hard to watch those races
00:19:18and to follow those horses around that sweeping turn.
00:19:21They put new cameras in and HD cameras, and the presentation is much more palatable for
00:19:30a racing fan or for a horse player.
00:19:32So I think even just little stuff like that, you know, I like to shout out small tracks
00:19:36like Indiana Grand has HD racing now and drone shots, and it's just the presentation is way
00:19:42better.
00:19:43And that stuff matters.
00:19:44You know, if it's impossible to watch a race, I don't want to throw anybody under the bus
00:19:48here.
00:19:49But if you watch turf racing in Ellis Park this summer, it was very, very difficult to
00:19:54follow, you know, and I don't know what's going on with this camera.
00:20:01I felt like I was drunk watching turf races there because it was it was just snapping
00:20:05back and forth and it was almost impossible to follow.
00:20:09So I don't know what the deal is with that.
00:20:10They got to get that sorted out.
00:20:12But that's kind of how it used to be watching Kentucky Downs races.
00:20:15And it's just it's way easier to follow now.
00:20:18And I think, you know, the fans and the horse players have rewarded them for, you know,
00:20:23putting them first.
00:20:24You know, obviously, all the money, all the purse money is great for the owners.
00:20:27But I also think that that's that's a track and the management of that track has put horse
00:20:31players first as well.
00:20:33And that's not necessarily the case at most tracks in America.
00:20:36So, yeah, like I said, if you build it, they will come and the betters have rewarded Kentucky
00:20:40Downs.
00:20:41And I just I hope that it continues to expand.
00:20:43Obviously, it's never going to become a full meet.
00:20:45It's always going to be a boutique meet.
00:20:47But I think they can fit another day or two and like I said, get them a great one or two
00:20:52because because they deserve it.
00:20:53The other action over the weekend was overseas.
00:20:56There was a ton of, you know, kind of arc preview day action.
00:21:01Some of the biggest horses that ran, I mean, the biggest horse that ran actually lost on
00:21:05Sunday.
00:21:06I was really looking forward to seeing Snowfall.
00:21:07She was a one run.
00:21:08She was a one to five in the pre for mail, which is now it's kind of weird that Aiden
00:21:14O'Brien still hasn't won that race because this was supposed to be the one that checked
00:21:18that off for him.
00:21:20And he lost.
00:21:21She lost to Tiona, who was trained by Roger Varian, lost by a length and a half, just
00:21:25didn't seem to have that pickup that she usually does, where she just blows away these fields
00:21:29and devastates them.
00:21:31So that that was a little bit disappointing.
00:21:33I wonder what's going to happen with her now, whether or not she's going to still go to
00:21:36the arc or maybe come over for the Breeders' Cup.
00:21:38But, you know, she's obviously still a point of viewing wherever she runs next.
00:21:42And St. Mark's Basilica picking up another group one in a very, very nice race against
00:21:47Tarnawa, who was second and and Poetic Flair was in there as well.
00:21:52He's now won group ones in in Britain, Ireland and France, I believe, which is not an easy
00:21:57thing to do.
00:21:58So there was a lot of good action overseas.
00:22:00I kind of wish we had Kelsey here this week, in addition to kind of, you know, save me
00:22:05from stumbling my way through the European report.
00:22:09But there was there was a lot of good stuff.
00:22:11And oh, yeah, I wanted to mention Hurricane Lane as well, who won the St.
00:22:14Ledger.
00:22:15That was that was a big win for Frankel.
00:22:18He and St. Mark's Basilica are now the 24th and 25th horses to have won group races in
00:22:23Britain, Ireland and France in the same year, in the past 50 years.
00:22:27So that that's a pretty amazing stat.
00:22:29And obviously, it's still a great weekend for Aiden O'Brien, but I'm sure he was very
00:22:32disappointed in Snowfall, not getting it done.
00:22:35But she's still a three year old failure.
00:22:36She's still got got improvement to come, I believe, and I'm excited to see where she
00:22:40shows up next.
00:22:41Joining the West Point Thoroughbreds partnership convolves you into the world of instant camaraderie
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00:22:52Learn more at WestpointTB.com We'll be right back after this message from West Point Thoroughbreds.
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00:23:25Visit WestpointTB.com.
00:23:26The Green Group guest of the week is sponsored by the Green Group, an accounting, tax, consulting
00:23:32and advisory firm specializing in the thoroughbred industry.
00:23:34With over 500 clients in the horse business, they have proven strategies to save you taxes.
00:23:39Learn more about how they can help you at www.greenco.com So we were beyond thrilled
00:23:45this week that she made time for us in the middle of Keeneland September.
00:23:49The president and CEO of Keeneland, Shannon Arvin.
00:23:51Thank you so much for coming on.
00:23:53Thanks so much for having me.
00:23:54I'm excited to talk to you all this morning.
00:23:56Yeah.
00:23:57And we're very excited to have you.
00:23:58Like I said, we appreciate you making the time to talk to us.
00:24:01We know it's a very busy time for you.
00:24:03So this is your first Keeneland September sale officially as president and CEO.
00:24:07You were president elect last year, so obviously you were in charge then.
00:24:11But this is your first official one running the show.
00:24:14How has it felt?
00:24:15Has it felt a little bit different?
00:24:16Or have you just so steeped in Keeneland stuff right now that just it's been a smooth transition?
00:24:20Oh, it's felt really different, but it's been really, really exciting.
00:24:25I'm so excited and thrilled about the team we have assembled here.
00:24:28And it's Tony Lacey's first sale, our new VP of sales, and Cormac Brannick's first sale,
00:24:33our new director of sales operations, who's following in the very large footsteps of our
00:24:38friend Jeffrey Russell.
00:24:39So it's exciting.
00:24:41Everybody was, I think we had a lot of pent up energy and we were really excited to get
00:24:45started on Monday afternoon.
00:24:48Just your general reactions to the first two days, we were talking to Gabby about it before,
00:24:53about how it seems like the energy is through the roof there and almost everybody's back.
00:24:57What has been your general impressions from the first two days?
00:24:59Definitely.
00:25:00I mean, the word that we keep saying is electric.
00:25:02We've worked really hard to try to create the right environment that book one of September
00:25:08deserves.
00:25:09So we've got a lot of flowers.
00:25:11People are teasing me about a woman's touch, but I really do think flowers elevate a room.
00:25:16We've got flowers.
00:25:17We've had cocktails being passed around in the morning, brunch being passed around.
00:25:22The barns are full of people, domestic buyers, international buyers.
00:25:26And actually when the sales started on Monday, I looked in the sales pavilion and I said,
00:25:30no, I don't think this is just a difference because of COVID.
00:25:35There were a lot of people sitting in that pavilion and really excited to be here.
00:25:38The electricity is palpable and we really do have that hustle and bustle back, which
00:25:43is what we want at a public auction.
00:25:46Shannon, thanks for joining us.
00:25:48The numbers are in and it's a little hard to compare 2021 to 2020 because of COVID,
00:25:53obviously.
00:25:54Nonetheless, the numbers are good, but let's take a broader view and maybe look at the
00:25:572021 book numbers versus 2019, 2018, 2017.
00:26:02And overall, what is going on?
00:26:05And I think the bottom line is good news.
00:26:07And what does that say for the industry?
00:26:11We had 11 horses sell for seven figures cumulatively in book one and looking at the median numbers
00:26:17and comparing them to 2019, 2018, which were really strong years.
00:26:22We're about there.
00:26:24The median from session two of book one was about $400,000 and that's about as high as
00:26:29it's been in recent memory.
00:26:31And cumulatively, it's about $355,000, which is really strong.
00:26:35So we are seeing lots of fireworks.
00:26:37It's just consistent.
00:26:39It's just from the first tip through the ring through the end, the battle is on.
00:26:45There are a lot of people I know that got shut out, that were frustrated, who are going
00:26:48to be heavy shopping for book two and beyond.
00:26:52So overall, we're really excited about what it shows about the market and the strength
00:26:56of the market and the solidity.
00:26:57I mean, we feel good about where we're headed.
00:27:01Shannon, there have been some changes to the book one, obviously book two of the sale this
00:27:08year.
00:27:09Dark day, first day is on Friday.
00:27:13But I just wanted, because of this new team that's in place with Tony and Cormac as well,
00:27:19what has that process been like?
00:27:22What were those conversations like with both the buyers and the sellers?
00:27:25How did you guys all land on this new format and just all the changes that have been incorporated
00:27:31in this year's sale?
00:27:33I would say first, it's a lesson of love.
00:27:35And I think Tony had gray hair when he came, but it may be a little bit grayer now after
00:27:39that process, because entries were really already in.
00:27:42And then it was a matter of putting the jigsaw puzzle together.
00:27:45And there aren't many sales companies, any sales companies that try to sell 4,000 horses
00:27:50and put that together with the stabling and try to make people happy with their placements.
00:27:56So we really believe in the importance of week one.
00:28:00And we wanted to get enough horses in front of the buyers before the break on the dark
00:28:06day to make buyers feel like it was worth their time to be here.
00:28:09But at the same time, not make it too hard on sellers and try not to have consignors
00:28:13in three different places in the barn.
00:28:15So there's been a lot of give and take.
00:28:17We have worked really closely communicating with consignors.
00:28:20And that's been really key and helpful.
00:28:24At the end of the day, that's what we've got to do.
00:28:26We've got to all work together to put on the best show we can and the best offering for
00:28:30our buyers.
00:28:31Everybody has a different view of what the format should be for September.
00:28:35Everybody.
00:28:35I mean, there were very few consistencies.
00:28:37But the one consistency we heard over and over with all the people we talked to was
00:28:42that they want consistency year to year in the format.
00:28:45And we actually initially thought we could have a 3-day book 1, but we didn't have enough
00:28:50sellers to support a 3-day book 1.
00:28:52So that's when we moved.
00:28:54At one point there, it was a 1-day book 1 and a 2-day book 2.
00:28:57And we said, no, that's not enough before the break.
00:28:59So I really like this format.
00:29:02We do plan to work to stick with this format and let people count on it, depend on it year
00:29:06to year.
00:29:07And I think that'll really help build confidence in what we've got in September.
00:29:12I wanted to ask a little bit about your background because you're a Lexington native.
00:29:16Keeneland is really in your blood.
00:29:18You have a family history at Keeneland.
00:29:20So kind of take us through growing up in Lexington and going to Keeneland.
00:29:26Take us through some of your early memories of Keeneland, not just to say all the racing,
00:29:30but the culture of Keeneland and maybe how that set you on this path to end up being
00:29:35the president and CEO of the company.
00:29:38Yeah, it's funny.
00:29:38Since I've been in this spot, a lot of people say, well, of course you were going to be
00:29:41president of Keeneland.
00:29:42Nobody ever knows you're going to be president of Keeneland.
00:29:45I mean, there are so many people that revere this institution and what it means to racing,
00:29:50what it means to the thoroughbred industry, what it means to our community.
00:29:53And I definitely am one of those.
00:29:55My grandfather was the first general manager, and he was here from 1936 until 1971.
00:30:00I was born in 74.
00:30:02So I have memories of talking to my grandfather about Keeneland, but he was at Oakland by
00:30:07the time that I was born and was around.
00:30:10My dad grew up on these grounds and was a lawyer to Keeneland and was one of our three
00:30:14trustees when he passed away in 2008.
00:30:17So we definitely do have that reverence for how important this place is.
00:30:22My early memories are working here.
00:30:24I answered the switchboard and I worked in the sales office and they had dough daddy
00:30:29doughnuts every Saturday and graham crackers and peanut butter in the break room until
00:30:33COVID.
00:30:33I'm pretty sure we're still there.
00:30:35I hope they weren't the same graham crackers, but I wonder sometimes.
00:30:39But it's just it's a special place.
00:30:41And I think working with Keeneland as counsel for nearly 20 years also gave me a real
00:30:47appreciation for what we need to be and what we owe to the industry.
00:30:52I mean, we are a company that was formed by horsemen for horsemen.
00:30:56And in order to fulfill our mission to be a model racetrack and promote the best and
00:31:02thoroughbred racing and an industry world leading sales company, we have to have horsemen
00:31:06on our team that understand what our customers are going through.
00:31:10So I think that's helped me really have strong ideas about who we need to have here.
00:31:16I think everybody here is so on the same page in terms of we're here for the right reasons.
00:31:23We all feel like we're part of something bigger than ourselves.
00:31:26And that's what really drives us every day.
00:31:30So to leave Keeneland better than we found it.
00:31:34Shannon, during the week, the numbers for the full crop came out and they weren't good,
00:31:39as we know, 18,700, the lowest that's projection lowest since 1965.
00:31:45A two part question.
00:31:46How does this impact Keeneland or any sales company?
00:31:50And I know there's no easy answer to this, but clearly this is something that's got to
00:31:54be of great concern to all facets of the industry.
00:31:58What can be done to reverse this trend?
00:32:01We think about a lot.
00:32:02We talk about it a lot.
00:32:03We've looked at the data over the past 30 years as we've seen the full crop decline.
00:32:09It's interesting.
00:32:10It's just in the past two years that we've seen our entries at the sales start to be
00:32:15lower, which you would think it would follow the same trend, but it really hasn't.
00:32:19But we're starting to see that the full crop may be impacting our sales numbers.
00:32:23And you have to think logically that ultimately it will.
00:32:26And I think what we can do about it is to make racing better, to make racing better.
00:32:31And I think HISA is a huge step forward in that direction.
00:32:35I think the Horse Racing Integrity and Safety Act is a complete game changer.
00:32:39We have to build public confidence in our sport.
00:32:42I don't know any professional sports that don't have some central governing authorities
00:32:48so people are playing by the same rules.
00:32:50We've got to have that.
00:32:52And once that's in place and as it's getting put in place, we're constantly thinking of
00:32:57ideas to bring new owners and fans to the sport.
00:33:01I've said to a couple people, for 20 years, you hear and you go to these meetings and
00:33:06they say, we're dying, we're dying.
00:33:07I'm so ready to change that dialogue.
00:33:10We don't want to be dying anymore.
00:33:11We want to be thriving.
00:33:12And we're working on innovative and new ways to try to make that happen.
00:33:16Yeah, I totally agree with you, Shannon, and just kind of changing the perception of it
00:33:22as well.
00:33:22But just to go back to some of the new things, I was speaking to Tony a couple of days ago
00:33:28about the new incentive for the 2021 September grads and the cooperation with Kentucky Downs
00:33:37and that there's going to be two new races next year for the two-year-old grads.
00:33:42What are some other things that might be in the pipeline, not only for the September sale,
00:33:47but also for the upcoming race meet?
00:33:51We were really excited about our partnership, our venture with Kentucky Downs.
00:33:54We've been working with them on some other projects as well.
00:33:58And it's great to have people in the sport owning tracks who love racing.
00:34:03And Ron Winchell is definitely one of those folks that loves racing.
00:34:07Gatewood has done a lot of work on our race schedule to be sure that we've got
00:34:13races programmed and scheduled in the right way where it's going to be attractive,
00:34:19most attractive to gamblers.
00:34:20We've seen that drive our handle, and I think we'll continue to see that.
00:34:24We've got two new stakes races that we've created this fall,
00:34:28the Bowman Mill and the Myrtlewood.
00:34:30So that's exciting as well.
00:34:32And we're just really trying to think, he's rearranged the fall.
00:34:36Sometimes I think we've all felt like fall stars weekend at Kemah is fabulous.
00:34:40And then by the time you get to the last weekend, you're thinking,
00:34:42oh, I wish it were fall stars weekend again.
00:34:45So we've saved some of that juice for the end.
00:34:47So it's evenly distributed and works well for horsemen.
00:34:51And again, that's another benefit of having a horseman here who's been a bloodstock agent,
00:34:55been an assistant trainer, and been a jockey's agent,
00:34:58and really understands the nuances of that.
00:35:01I'm glad you guys brought up the fall meet because it's coming up.
00:35:04It's right around the corner at the beginning of October.
00:35:07It was announced a couple of months ago that you guys would be at full capacity
00:35:10in terms of fans coming back and filling the stands.
00:35:13I know that's a big deal for you guys at Saratoga.
00:35:15We talked about how big of a difference it was to have fans back.
00:35:19Can you just talk a little bit about how much that's going to mean
00:35:22to see the place full again?
00:35:24We have missed our fans so much.
00:35:26It's just not the same.
00:35:27I've had a couple people, especially Breeders' Cup last year,
00:35:30that said, this is so great.
00:35:31Can we do this every year with this tiny fan base?
00:35:35And I said, no, absolutely not.
00:35:37This is horrible.
00:35:37We need our fans back.
00:35:39So we're really excited to welcome them back.
00:35:41We're still working through what our COVID protocols will be.
00:35:45From the beginning of this really difficult 18 months,
00:35:49we have always put first, foremost, our biggest priority
00:35:53is to make sure that our employees and our patrons are safe.
00:35:58So we're trying to work through what makes the most sense
00:36:01and what other sporting venues that are similarly situated are doing.
00:36:06But I still predict we will be full capacity.
00:36:09We are a sport that, as we've all talked about over and over,
00:36:13we are working in the morning,
00:36:14and it's just natural for the horses to be racing in the afternoon.
00:36:17And we're largely outside, which helps a great deal also.
00:36:21So we are doing all in our power to be sure that we are full capacity
00:36:26and have our fans fully welcome back for October.
00:36:29Yeah, and that's definitely good news.
00:36:31And even just watching it on TV,
00:36:32it's not the same without the fans on the stands.
00:36:35And I think you guys have been good about adjusting and being proactive.
00:36:38And I think you guys have been kind of the first
00:36:41to institute policies and protocols among all of the tracks.
00:36:45So I commend you guys for that.
00:36:47You guys had to mix things around and run in July last year,
00:36:50but it was still a great meet.
00:36:51So I appreciate that just as a fan.
00:36:54Shannon, tradition is obviously a huge part of England
00:36:58and a huge part of its success.
00:37:00But sometimes, whether it's a baseball team, a football team,
00:37:03a business or a racetrack, you can't rely just on tradition.
00:37:07You have to keep up with the times.
00:37:09And I think more so than some of your predecessors,
00:37:13you and the team that you've brought in
00:37:15has really looked to change things up a little bit,
00:37:17whether it's the sales or with the racing
00:37:20and to change things up for the better and to stay with the times.
00:37:24Since you talk about your family goes back to Keeneland to the 1930s,
00:37:28you one might think that you would be the last person
00:37:30to want to buck tradition.
00:37:31So where does that come from?
00:37:33Where does that spirit come from and why?
00:37:35I think it goes back to wanting the sport
00:37:38and this institution of Keeneland to be the very best it can be.
00:37:42And to do that, we can't keep doing the things
00:37:44that we've always done.
00:37:46We have a lot of tradition and it's one of our serious strengths.
00:37:50And I value tradition.
00:37:51If you ask my friends and colleagues,
00:37:53they would probably say I'm a traditionalist.
00:37:55But not all of our traditions are good.
00:37:57We've just got to take the best of our traditions
00:38:00and really think about ways to make ourselves better.
00:38:03And I think that goes back to our team.
00:38:05We have a really open dialogue between our team.
00:38:08And I think we've developed this culture
00:38:10where nothing's out of bounds to suggest
00:38:13we're not afraid to talk about anything.
00:38:15And we're all very comfortable with each other.
00:38:17We trust each other.
00:38:18And that's led, I think, to a lot of the good ideas.
00:38:20And I think there are a lot more to come
00:38:23than I think you all will see.
00:38:25Yeah, and we're super excited for that.
00:38:27We're super excited for the rest of the sale
00:38:28and the fall meet.
00:38:29And we really appreciate you making some time.
00:38:31Shannon Arvin, thank you so much for coming on.
00:38:33Thank you all.
00:38:34Thank you, Shannon.
00:38:36Thanks, guys.
00:38:37The Green Group Guest of the Week
00:38:38is sponsored by The Green Group,
00:38:39an accounting, tax, consulting, and advisory firm
00:38:42specializing in the thoroughbred industry.
00:38:44As this week's Green Group Guest of the Week,
00:38:45Shannon Arvin will receive a free one-hour tax consultation.
00:38:49Learn more at greenco.com.
00:38:51We'll be right back after this message from The Green Group.
00:38:54Why do the most successful owners, breeders,
00:38:56and horsemen select The Green Group as their tax advisor?
00:38:59We simply save them money
00:39:00and know how to make them more successful.
00:39:02Over the past 40 years, founder Leonard Green
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00:39:06in the history of the sport.
00:39:07His in-depth, hands-on industry knowledge
00:39:09combined with cutting-edge tax-saving strategies
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00:39:14and has made The Green Group
00:39:15the top-rated accounting and tax firm in the business.
00:39:17For a confidential and complimentary consultation,
00:39:20contact us at 732-634-5100
00:39:23or visit our website at www.greenco.com.
00:39:27The Green Group, proven strategies to save you taxes.
00:39:30The TDN Writings Room is brought to you
00:39:31by Woodford Thoroughbreds.
00:39:33Woodford had a couple of very nice sales in book one.
00:39:35They had a pioneer of the Nile filly.
00:39:37They went for $500,000 to Michael Hernon,
00:39:39who was an agent for Layle Stables,
00:39:41acting as an agent for Layle Stables.
00:39:43On day two, they had an Uncle Mo, Mo Cole,
00:39:45hit 218, sell for $800,000 to Coolmore.
00:39:49An Equality Road filly hit 240,
00:39:52go for $525,000 to My Racehorse.
00:39:55They have a big book three coming up this weekend
00:39:58with the likes of Sires of Gunrunner,
00:40:00Flatter, Justify, who we talked about before,
00:40:02Street Sense, and City of Light.
00:40:05And some info on some of their book three yearlings,
00:40:07HIP 1738 is a Flatter filly.
00:40:09He's a full sister to two other Blacktide Flatter fillies
00:40:12and the two-year-old Dr. Jeff,
00:40:14who broke his maiden first out in Saratoga
00:40:16a couple of weeks ago,
00:40:17was favored in the Saratoga special.
00:40:19HIP 1784 is a Justify Cole.
00:40:22The grade three winning,
00:40:23multiple graded stakes place bling is my thing.
00:40:26The two-year-old King Curlin was second of 11
00:40:28at Kentucky Downs in his first start
00:40:30this past weekend from that family.
00:40:32And HIP 1866 is a Bolt Doro Cole
00:40:35out of a half-sister to Talk Voop to Me,
00:40:37who I remember was a very impressive TDN rising star
00:40:40by violence.
00:40:41It was by Medallia Doro, so similar family there.
00:40:44So we know the cross works there.
00:40:46And for photos, walking videos,
00:40:48catalog pages, and x-ray reports,
00:40:49you can go to whywoodford.com.
00:40:53So we got the report of Mayor's Bread
00:40:55from the Jockey Club last week.
00:40:57This is how we determined the full crop numbers,
00:41:00projected full crop.
00:41:01So the projected full crop for 2022
00:41:03based on Mayor's Bread this year is 18,700,
00:41:06which is another decline.
00:41:08It's a decline of 500.
00:41:10Then the 2021 full crop estimate are 2.6%.
00:41:14This is the sixth straight year of decline.
00:41:16It's the lowest figure since 1965
00:41:19when the full crop was 18,846,
00:41:22the high water mark,
00:41:23which seems like a bajillion years ago in 1986
00:41:26was 51,296.
00:41:29Obviously, we're never, ever gonna approach
00:41:31those numbers again,
00:41:33but this is obviously a concerning trend
00:41:35for the industry.
00:41:36I think the two, to me,
00:41:38the two biggest trends to follow
00:41:41if you wanna know about the health of racing
00:41:43is full crop and handle.
00:41:45And handle, at least, I think has steadied a bit.
00:41:48It was going down for a long, long time.
00:41:50And now it's at least steadied
00:41:51at around $10 billion, give or take.
00:41:54You would obviously like to see that grow,
00:41:56but at least it's not declining the way it was
00:41:58in the past 20 years.
00:41:59But full crop continues to go down.
00:42:01And this is something that is obviously
00:42:03gonna trickle down to the rest of racing.
00:42:05There's gonna be smaller field sizes,
00:42:06which leads to smaller handle.
00:42:08You're gonna have fewer, I think, fewer owners.
00:42:11And I think that's gonna hurt the purse structure
00:42:14eventually, although there's some quotes
00:42:16in the story from Elliott Walden
00:42:17about how maybe the purse structure
00:42:19and the $100,000 made in special ways
00:42:22that are all over the place
00:42:23will get this trend to go in the other direction.
00:42:25I don't know about all that.
00:42:26This seems kind of like an irreversible thing,
00:42:29and it's just gonna go down,
00:42:30and it's just a matter of how much.
00:42:32But I wonder if Bill has any thoughts.
00:42:33Yeah, Joe, a lot of thoughts on this.
00:42:35I mean, at 18,700,
00:42:37you're looking at the lowest full crop since 1965.
00:42:40And I'll say the same thing this year
00:42:42that I would have said in any one of the 10 prior years.
00:42:45On paper, this makes no sense.
00:42:47I mean, we just talked about horses
00:42:50running for $135,000 maiden races
00:42:53and allowance races at Kentucky Downs.
00:42:55Purses have never been bigger.
00:42:57And if you take purses now versus 20 years ago,
00:42:59I mean, they've gone up.
00:43:00They've just exploded,
00:43:02thanks largely due to gaming,
00:43:04which is where all the Kentucky Downs money comes from.
00:43:06So simple economics here don't make any sense.
00:43:09When the amount of money
00:43:11that is available to horses goes up,
00:43:13you should have more horses.
00:43:14Instead, you get less and less all the time.
00:43:16And it's interesting what Elliott Walden said,
00:43:19but maybe these higher purses
00:43:21will start to attract more owners,
00:43:23which will attract more demand for breeding.
00:43:25But if that were to be the case,
00:43:27why hasn't that happened in the prior years
00:43:30when purses keep going up right now?
00:43:33I don't have the answer to this.
00:43:35I don't know what's going on.
00:43:36The only thing I can think of is,
00:43:37I'm sure it's not the top guys
00:43:39that are getting squeezed out, the top breeders.
00:43:41It would seem to me that it's more,
00:43:43like we talk always about the middle market,
00:43:45whether it's at the yearling sales or whatnot.
00:43:48If you stand a $2,500 sire in Maryland or something,
00:43:52it probably really is hard to make a go
00:43:53of something like that.
00:43:54So I would think that's where it's coming from.
00:43:56But the other thing too is,
00:43:58the way racing has to adjust to this,
00:44:01I'm not sure it can.
00:44:03We need less racing
00:44:05because if you don't conduct less racing,
00:44:08those six horse fields become five horse fields.
00:44:10And then all of a sudden the handle keeps going down
00:44:13and the purses might go down if the handle goes down.
00:44:15And that's one of the problems that the sport has.
00:44:18There's too much racing.
00:44:19And one of the reasons why it's,
00:44:21again, damned if you do, damned if you don't
00:44:23on the slot machines.
00:44:24The reason why there's too much racing
00:44:26is there's 20 racetracks out there that would be closed
00:44:28if they weren't excuses
00:44:29for having slot borrowers right now.
00:44:31So let's hope though that it levels off at this number.
00:44:35I mean, this is sustainable,
00:44:37but if we get down to 14,000 foals
00:44:40in seven, eight years from now,
00:44:42something like that is really, really scary.
00:44:44Yeah. And that is the elephant in the room
00:44:49is that there's too much racing
00:44:51for the foal crops that we have.
00:44:53And there's too many racetracks too.
00:44:56But to your point that,
00:44:59and it was a great story that Sue wrote about this.
00:45:01And there were a lot of great quotes in there.
00:45:03The only thing is, I think,
00:45:05most of the quotes were from people like Bill Says
00:45:08who are at the top end of the game
00:45:10who aren't really gonna feel the squeeze
00:45:13when it comes to declining foal crops.
00:45:14They're mostly guys who,
00:45:18their stallions are all booked
00:45:20and they breed a hundred mares no matter what.
00:45:22Every single year, it's gonna be the smaller,
00:45:25maybe smaller state breeders
00:45:27that are gonna feel the effects of this
00:45:28with really no business.
00:45:30I thought there was an interesting quote
00:45:32in the story as well from Chauncey Morris
00:45:35about the lack of export
00:45:37and how other countries,
00:45:38I think, especially in the Far East
00:45:41have become more reliant on their own breeding programs
00:45:44as opposed to American bred horses
00:45:46that they would have been exporting 10, 20 years ago.
00:45:50So I think that's an interesting point as well
00:45:52that America is no longer,
00:45:54I don't think the breeding capital of the world.
00:45:56I think every country that has a sustainable racing product
00:46:00has their own breeding program that they can rely on.
00:46:05But yeah, it's just,
00:46:07like I said, it's eventually gonna trickle down
00:46:09and we already have a problem with field size.
00:46:13This is a blinking red alarm signal
00:46:16that the field sizes are barely over seven horses per race.
00:46:19And in some cases,
00:46:20if you look at the monthly figures,
00:46:22they're below seven horses per race,
00:46:23which is completely unsustainable.
00:46:25And this is not going to help that.
00:46:28And I wonder if racing really ever addresses
00:46:33these problems in a systemic way.
00:46:35And not having that centralized body to do so
00:46:39is a real handicap.
00:46:40And I'm not an expert on how to rejuvenate full crop.
00:46:45That's not my department.
00:46:46It's way above my pay grade.
00:46:47But I see some of the quotes that are just kind of,
00:46:51well, this is no big deal.
00:46:52Like you can't read too much into this.
00:46:54It's not necessarily about this year's full crop
00:46:57and it being down 500 horses.
00:46:58It's about the trend and the decline
00:47:00and handle was going down by this much every year.
00:47:03You would obviously be very, very concerned about it.
00:47:05But it's something that, like I said, no easy fix,
00:47:10but it's definitely something to monitor.
00:47:12And it's something that's going,
00:47:13it's kind of like a lagging indicator,
00:47:15kind of like we had COVID and we had cases
00:47:19and then hospitalizations.
00:47:20And then that's the lagging indicator.
00:47:22I think this is one of those things
00:47:23where a couple of years from now,
00:47:25when these polls are on the track,
00:47:27you're going to have five horse fields,
00:47:28five and a half, six horse fields as an average
00:47:31and be like, well, why the hell is this happening?
00:47:33Well, not enough foals, too much racing,
00:47:35too many racetracks.
00:47:36And I think the purse thing is a little bit illusory
00:47:39that now, for now we have a lot of gaming subsidies
00:47:43and we have these boutique meets
00:47:44that can really jack up purses.
00:47:46But overall, like that's not going to be the trend
00:47:48if full crop continues to go down.
00:47:50The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you
00:47:52by Legacy Bloodstock.
00:47:53If you think that 50 years combined experience
00:47:55in the horse business could benefit your program,
00:47:57give Tommy or Wendy a call.
00:47:59They personally advise on each horse
00:48:01as if they were their own.
00:48:02Legacy is certainly going to be busy over the next week
00:48:04with a huge roster of yearlings
00:48:06going through the September sale.
00:48:07They have 10 going through the ring today
00:48:09as book two begins,
00:48:10including a Mendelssohn colt out of a stakes winner
00:48:12and a City of Light colt out of a grade two producer.
00:48:15So best of luck to Tommy and Wendy on those horses.
00:48:18And they'll be back with another seven yearlings
00:48:19on Saturday with a book three opener
00:48:22with two more members of the first crop of Mendelssohn
00:48:25who I expect to sell very well,
00:48:26plus colts by Empire Maker, More Than Ready and Arrogate.
00:48:30You can check out their group
00:48:31going to book three at barn nine at Keeneland
00:48:34if you're on the grounds.
00:48:35We'll be right back after this message
00:48:37from Legacy Bloodstock.
00:48:39Being a small family business,
00:48:41I guess we're part of a dying breed.
00:48:43We're really grateful for the people that entrust us.
00:48:45We know it's a huge responsibility.
00:48:47We're always with your horse every step of the way.
00:48:51When it comes to being at the sales ground,
00:48:53showing your horses, we are with your horse.
00:48:55Just grabbing up down the road every day.
00:48:57There's not a time that I don't look out
00:48:59and feel a responsibility to the sport,
00:49:01the animal, the people that come to invest in the game.
00:49:03I want to see as many people enjoy this sport
00:49:05as they possibly can,
00:49:06because we do have the most beautiful sport in the world.
00:49:31All right, so if you can pick your jaw up off the floor
00:49:49from watching that breathtaking athletic prowess
00:49:52from John Green,
00:49:53we want to congratulate team TDN,
00:49:56who has now taken the lead in the race to give,
00:49:58which is conceived by Haggard Equine Medical Center.
00:50:01To benefit thoroughbred aftercare,
00:50:03it's obviously a big deal in racing.
00:50:06The Pickleball Tournament is a very fun way
00:50:08to fundraise with John and Sue and Farron Peterson.
00:50:14I'm super proud of those guys for taking the lead.
00:50:18I don't know if they won the gold medal or not.
00:50:20I feel like they maybe didn't,
00:50:21but the important thing is they're taking the lead
00:50:23in the charity drive.
00:50:25If you want to donate or learn more,
00:50:27you start your own team.
00:50:28You can go to racetogive.org.
00:50:30It's a great cause.
00:50:31I look forward to more scintillating Pickleball highlights
00:50:35of John Green in the future.
00:50:37Not a huge weekend of racing coming up.
00:50:38We do have the Woodbine Mile
00:50:40and the Canadian International Card
00:50:42this weekend at Woodbine.
00:50:43I want to give a shout out and a pop to them.
00:50:45We also have the Jockey Club Derby
00:50:47and the Jockey Club Oaks this Saturday at Belmont.
00:50:51But we also have the first two-turn races
00:50:54for two-year-olds with the Iroquois Stakes
00:50:58Saturday at Churchill Downs.
00:50:59It's a mile and a 16th race for two-year-olds.
00:51:02And that segues into the announcement
00:51:05that suspended trainers will not accrue points
00:51:11with horses on the road to the Kentucky Derby.
00:51:13This was announced last week,
00:51:15which again starts this week
00:51:17with the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs.
00:51:20Now, this obviously has major implications
00:51:23for Bob Baffert.
00:51:25He still has that suspension from Churchill Downs
00:51:27that came down right after the Medina Spirit positive broke.
00:51:33It's going to be litigated and adjudicated
00:51:35and appealed and challenged and all that stuff.
00:51:37We got a little bit of a break
00:51:38from the Bob Baffert lawyer report,
00:51:40but this kind of brings it back to the forefront
00:51:43because I wonder in this sense
00:51:47that you haven't seen the exodus of horses
00:51:50from Bob Baffert's barn beyond those first couple of weeks
00:51:54since Spencer sent a couple of horses to Todd Fletcher.
00:51:56But overall, I haven't seen two-year-olds
00:52:01leaving the Bob Baffert barn in droves
00:52:03and going to other trainers.
00:52:04Maybe there have been some behind the scenes,
00:52:06but it seems like he's still pretty loaded
00:52:07with two-year-olds.
00:52:08He just won his 15th Delmar Futurity
00:52:11a couple of weeks ago with Pinehurst,
00:52:13and he's got a bunch of other pretty good-looking two-year-olds.
00:52:16So I wonder what this means in terms of his appeal
00:52:22to the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission
00:52:23and the Churchill Downs
00:52:24to maybe try to get the suspension overturned
00:52:26because I would think if I had a top two-year-old
00:52:29in the Bob Baffert barn,
00:52:30and I saw this news that suspended trainers
00:52:33are not going to be able to have their horses
00:52:34accrue points on the way to the derby,
00:52:36I would be trying to get my horse the hell out of there.
00:52:39I wonder if this means that they maybe have,
00:52:41some owners have some kind of little inkling
00:52:43about the way this thing is going to be ruled in the future
00:52:46because I would expect after this announcement
00:52:49people to react in that way,
00:52:51but it doesn't seem like that's happening so far.
00:52:53Bill, do you have any thoughts?
00:52:54Yeah, I have plenty.
00:52:55Joe, I think it will happen.
00:52:57First of all, Baffert and his legal team
00:53:00have never challenged the Kentucky Churchill Downs ruling.
00:53:03They challenged Naira and they won a round in court,
00:53:06but remember, Naira is different than Churchill
00:53:09because it's privately owned
00:53:10versus maybe not so privately owned
00:53:13or whatever you want to talk to Naira about.
00:53:16So if this holds up,
00:53:19then there's got to be an exodus
00:53:21because as things stand right now,
00:53:24if you have a horse that's coming into the new year
00:53:27and suppose you want to point him for the San Felipe
00:53:31or something like that,
00:53:32or one of the earlier races, the Robert Lewis,
00:53:36if he's not going to get any derby points
00:53:39for winning those races,
00:53:41then you have two choices here.
00:53:43You could be incredibly loyal to Baffert
00:53:46or you can turn the horse over to someone else.
00:53:49And most of his owners, as you mentioned,
00:53:53have so far been very loyal to him.
00:53:55We've only seen a handful take their horses away,
00:53:58but so far they haven't really,
00:54:00there hasn't been much to lose
00:54:02by keeping your horses with Baffert
00:54:04because there's no races right now.
00:54:05Obviously he's running at Churchill Downs.
00:54:08He was able to run at Saratoga,
00:54:09but I think when it comes into next year,
00:54:13this is a game changer.
00:54:14And these people that go to the sales
00:54:16and spend a million dollars on a yearling
00:54:18don't buy a yearling to win the Dwyer for Baffert
00:54:22or some race at, or even the Preakness,
00:54:24which he can still run in.
00:54:26They buy the horse to win the Kentucky Derby.
00:54:29That is their goal there.
00:54:31And if they can't even get a horse
00:54:33to take part in the Kentucky Derby,
00:54:35I can't imagine they're going to say,
00:54:37hey Bob, this is a rough deal,
00:54:39but we're going to stick by you.
00:54:40And geez, we can't wait to win the Preakness.
00:54:43So the only reason why I think it hasn't happened yet
00:54:45is because there's really no reason to.
00:54:47No one is working.
00:54:48The points you get in the Iroquois
00:54:50or even the points you get in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile
00:54:53are really not a major factor.
00:54:55You're looking to pick up those points
00:54:57in those big races as a three-year-old,
00:54:59especially races like the Arkansas Derby,
00:55:01Santa Anita Derby and whatnot.
00:55:03So look, maybe there is going to be something
00:55:05that's going to come down the pike
00:55:06where Baffert's going to be able to get points
00:55:09for these horses that be able to run the Kentucky Derby,
00:55:11but I don't see it coming.
00:55:13And I think that we are going to see a major exit.
00:55:16Yeah, I mean, you're right that there is still a lot of time,
00:55:19but the suspension came down months ago
00:55:22and we really haven't seen
00:55:24other than that first handful of Spencer horses,
00:55:27we haven't seen a ton of horses leave his barn.
00:55:30And it's just, it's kind of,
00:55:34seeing the Keeneland September results
00:55:36and hearing about these million dollar horses
00:55:38still going to the Bob Baffert barn,
00:55:40it's kind of, I don't know, it just,
00:55:42it seems like people are going to try
00:55:43to ignore this Baffert stuff as long as they possibly can
00:55:47until it comes to a real derby season
00:55:50and then you really have a decision to make
00:55:52with these horses.
00:55:53But yeah, like you said,
00:55:54I've honestly been pretty surprised
00:55:57by how many owners have stuck by him
00:55:59throughout at least the first four or five months
00:56:03of this process.
00:56:03And like I said, like you said, Bill,
00:56:06maybe there are challenges coming.
00:56:09It is interesting that he has not legally challenged
00:56:12the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission,
00:56:13the Churchill suspension,
00:56:16because he has, and he and his lawyers
00:56:19have challenged the Naira suspensions.
00:56:21And there was some news about that this week as well,
00:56:24where the Naira officially scheduled hearings
00:56:28and issue charges, not just for Bob Baffert,
00:56:30but also for Marcus Vitale,
00:56:31who if you remember was able to run a race,
00:56:34run a horse at Saratoga
00:56:35and kind of left everybody with egg on their face.
00:56:37Thankfully the horse didn't win,
00:56:38but just the fact that he was,
00:56:40he even had a horse in the entries,
00:56:41I thought it looked bad for everybody involved.
00:56:43So I think that Naira is trying to get out ahead
00:56:45of that next situation.
00:56:47And I'm just gonna read the quote here
00:56:50from Naira's press release.
00:56:51It says, Naira contends that Mr. Baffert and Mr. Vitale
00:56:54have engaged in conduct that is detrimental
00:56:57to the best interests of the sport of thoroughbred racing
00:57:00or potentially injurious to the health and safety
00:57:02of horses and riders.
00:57:04Further as detailed in the respective statements of charges,
00:57:06this conduct warrants revocation or suspension
00:57:08of their right to train horses
00:57:10and to races or engage in all racing related activity
00:57:13at Naira properties,
00:57:14including Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga.
00:57:17Craig Robertson fired back
00:57:19and said that the injunction that we talked about,
00:57:22the injunction that came down last month,
00:57:24which allowed Baffert to run at Saratoga
00:57:27and eventually won a grade one at Saratoga with Gamine,
00:57:29that injunction prevents Naira
00:57:32from doing any of this stuff
00:57:33until that original suit has concluded.
00:57:36Now, again, I am not a lawyer,
00:57:38but it seems like that should be very clear
00:57:41whether or not Naira has the legal authority
00:57:44to do these things
00:57:45while this other suit is potentially still pending.
00:57:48So I don't know where this is gonna end up,
00:57:51but it seems like a little bit of a mess right now
00:57:55for Bob and Baffert in terms of where he can run,
00:57:57where he can't run.
00:57:58But if you go by the Keeneland September results,
00:58:03he's still gonna be loaded with horses
00:58:04by this time next year.
00:58:06And people weren't that into racing asked me at the time
00:58:11when this stuff with Medina Spirit and Baffert
00:58:14first came down,
00:58:15they said, somebody asked me on TV,
00:58:17they were like,
00:58:17do you think this is a career ending thing for him?
00:58:20And I was just like, no, no.
00:58:22There are too many people in positions of power
00:58:25and too many, just frankly,
00:58:29very rich people in racing
00:58:31who still have Bob Baffert's back.
00:58:33Now, you might wanna say
00:58:34it was a career defining thing with Medina Spirit,
00:58:36he's never gonna live that down.
00:58:38But in terms of career ending,
00:58:39now, Bob Baffert's gonna continue to train horses
00:58:42and be at the top levels of the game,
00:58:45maybe not in the Derby,
00:58:46and maybe that lone carrot is enough
00:58:50to take horses and put them into other barns
00:58:52because other people can win the Derby
00:58:54if you give them a chance.
00:58:55But he's overall, I think,
00:58:57gonna still be a very prominent figure in racing
00:59:00for years and years to come.
00:59:01I think that's been clear
00:59:03from the results of the two-year-olds this year
00:59:05and from the results so far,
00:59:07Keone September with seven-figure yearlings,
00:59:09still filling up his barn.
00:59:11We'll see what happens with Naira
00:59:13and it is a little bit of a mess,
00:59:14but Baffert still has a lot of friends
00:59:16in high places in racing.
00:59:18And I think that is gonna win out in the long run.
00:59:21We'll see.
00:59:22Yeah, Joe, I mean,
00:59:23I think he's going to take a major setback.
00:59:25You know, the Bob Baffert of 2021,
00:59:28excuse me, of 2022 and 2023
00:59:30is not gonna be the Bob Baffert
00:59:31of the prior 15 years or whatnot.
00:59:34But the other thing to keep in mind
00:59:35is that the very worst case scenario,
00:59:39Churchill has only suspended for two years.
00:59:41So if he can't run in the 22 and 23 Derby
00:59:45and maybe also with Naira's thing,
00:59:47can't run in the 22, 23 Belmont either
00:59:50for the 22, 23 Travers.
00:59:53I think he'll have a good stable.
00:59:55I think he'll have horses that win
00:59:57a lot of important races around the country.
00:59:59I don't think it will be as quite tilted
01:00:02towards the three-year-old Colts
01:00:04as it has been in the past.
01:00:05But as soon as he's back and clear,
01:00:08you know, people still want to win
01:00:10the Kentucky Derby more than anything else
01:00:11in this sport.
01:00:12And who is the guy,
01:00:14no matter what has happened to him,
01:00:16forget about Betty Mathison,
01:00:17Medina Spirit, et cetera.
01:00:18Who is the guy who is most likely
01:00:21to get your horse into the winner's circle
01:00:22of the Kentucky Derby?
01:00:23That's going to be Bob Baffert again
01:00:26when this is all said and done.
01:00:28This is not a lifetime ban.
01:00:30I mean, Jorge Navarro and Jason Service
01:00:32will never train a racehorse again
01:00:33the rest of their lives.
01:00:34I would bet all the money
01:00:37I have in the world on that.
01:00:38Bob Baffert is going to continue to train.
01:00:40And I think his career will have a major setback
01:00:44and readjustment period.
01:00:45But I don't think you need to shed too many tears.
01:00:48No, definitely not.
01:00:50And also the thing about him being most likely
01:00:53to train a Kentucky Derby winner,
01:00:55I think that that is a self-perpetuating thing
01:00:57where he gets the best horses
01:00:59because people think he's more likely
01:01:02to win the Derby than anybody else.
01:01:03Statistically, he is.
01:01:05But I think a lot of it has to do with the stock
01:01:07that he has in his barn.
01:01:08I think that it just becomes a self-perpetuating thing
01:01:11where he just gets more and more
01:01:12and more and more high-priced horses,
01:01:14has more and more chances,
01:01:16and then is more and more likely to win the Derby,
01:01:18which reinforces the perception that,
01:01:20oh, Bob Baffert's got the magic touch
01:01:22to win the Kentucky Derby.
01:01:23When I think if you give at least half
01:01:25of the top-level trainers in this country
01:01:28those same horses,
01:01:29they can probably do the same thing.
01:01:31But I guess we're going to find out.
01:01:32We'll be right back after this message from Keeneland.
01:01:55I just wanted to mention this real quick
01:02:07before we sign off,
01:02:08because there was another sentence
01:02:10that came down in the FBI indictments.
01:02:13Scott Mangini is a guy who was selling
01:02:16alleged PEDs and got sentenced to 18 months.
01:02:21That seems to be the standard sentence
01:02:22for a lot of these lower-level actors,
01:02:24and this thing was 18 months,
01:02:25and two other people have gotten that sentence.
01:02:29We're obviously waiting to see
01:02:30what the sentences are for Rory Navarro
01:02:32and maybe eventually Jason Service
01:02:35if he's found guilty.
01:02:36But T.D. Thorne wrote about this
01:02:37in his Week in Review.
01:02:39He's good at going through these court documents
01:02:41and finding the most interesting tidbits.
01:02:44But it was actually a little dark comedy,
01:02:48I thought, in some of the stuff
01:02:49that was happening in Scott Mangini's sentences
01:02:51where he's still arguing,
01:02:54even as he's accepting his sentence
01:02:56and pleading guilty,
01:02:58he's still arguing that he wasn't
01:03:00technically selling PEDs
01:03:02and he wasn't selling more placebos
01:03:06or nutrient pills
01:03:09or these vague kind of healthy things
01:03:12that I think a lot of people take.
01:03:14A lot of people take these supplements
01:03:16thinking that it'll make them have a six-pack
01:03:19or gain muscle or any of this stuff.
01:03:22That's kind of what was his argument,
01:03:23that you go into GNC and all these things,
01:03:25all these bottles of pills
01:03:27have these wild claims
01:03:28that you can't reasonably expect them
01:03:30to make you into an Olympic bodybuilder overnight.
01:03:33But the government came back at him
01:03:36and was basically like,
01:03:38well, have you looked at the names
01:03:40of some of the stuff
01:03:40that you were selling on your website?
01:03:42And I'll just read a couple for you.
01:03:44Blood building explosion,
01:03:46pre-race explosion,
01:03:47growth factor 5,000,
01:03:50horsepower,
01:03:51equine growth hormone,
01:03:53numb it,
01:03:54purple pain injection,
01:03:56plug it,
01:03:57bleeder injection,
01:03:58blast off,
01:03:59breather injection.
01:04:01One product was called white lightning
01:04:03and was described as something
01:04:04that would increase stamina and performance
01:04:06and races,
01:04:07greyhounds and camels.
01:04:09So for the camel racing fans out there,
01:04:11I think you've got to clean up your sport as well.
01:04:13You can't just be racing.
01:04:15That's cleaning itself up.
01:04:16But no, I mean,
01:04:17and many of the products were stamped
01:04:19as will not test.
01:04:20So it's kind of a hard argument to make
01:04:23when you're when you're marketing
01:04:25things like that,
01:04:26that this was not intended for PED sales.
01:04:30So it was another one of these parts
01:04:34of the story that was funny,
01:04:36but it's not funny.
01:04:37And it really underscored for me,
01:04:39at least what we talked about last week,
01:04:40where when these indictments came down,
01:04:42you thought this was kind of like
01:04:44a criminal genius,
01:04:46masterminded plot.
01:04:48And then the more and more
01:04:49you hear about it,
01:04:50you think this was a real two bit operation.
01:04:53And it's pretty unfortunate that
01:04:54a two bit operation like this
01:04:56was able to gain the racing industry
01:04:59for years and years and years.
01:05:00But it was it was,
01:05:02you know,
01:05:02darkly funny to read those marketing materials
01:05:06for these drugs.
01:05:06Bill, what do you think?
01:05:07Yeah, and I have one other additional thought.
01:05:09First of all, you're right.
01:05:10The whole thing was just so patently ridiculous.
01:05:12You know, it's like, you know,
01:05:13you don't know whether to laugh or cry.
01:05:15But one thing it appeared to me
01:05:17and from what TD Hood did a very good job,
01:05:18as always with the story,
01:05:20was that the lawyer kind of wanted
01:05:22Mangini to walk off the prison
01:05:24with his reputation as intact as possible.
01:05:27And I wonder, think about this.
01:05:28So Navarro's service,
01:05:30they have to have a license to train
01:05:31the vets that have been indicted.
01:05:34I'm sure they have to have
01:05:35some sort of license as well.
01:05:36But Mangini was a guy who had these websites,
01:05:39you know, buy my stuff
01:05:40and your horse will run faster.com, etc.
01:05:43I don't know if something like that
01:05:45is regulated by any,
01:05:48who would be in charge of that?
01:05:50I'm wondering if this guy is already thinking,
01:05:52maybe this is a wild thought,
01:05:53but he's going to serve his 18 years to 18 years.
01:05:57I wish it was 18 years, it's 18 months.
01:05:59And then the day he gets out of prison
01:06:00is going to just go back
01:06:01to selling this stuff online.
01:06:03You know, maybe he's not stupid enough
01:06:04to sell illegal stuff anymore,
01:06:06but to sell these placebos
01:06:08and these kind of things
01:06:09that are a little bit more innocuous.
01:06:11So, you know, as much as that
01:06:16will leave a bad taste in your mouth,
01:06:18I'm not so sure you could keep a guy like this
01:06:20out of doing what he does.
01:06:22I mean, who would be able to step up
01:06:24and say, Scott Mangini,
01:06:25you can never again sell horse
01:06:27and veterinary products online.
01:06:29I don't know, maybe the FDA,
01:06:31because I think that was one of the main crimes
01:06:34was that these were non-FDA regulated,
01:06:37you know, meds that they were synthesizing
01:06:39allegedly and selling.
01:06:41Well, it's not alleged again in this case.
01:06:43But yeah, I love that,
01:06:44that he wanted to keep his reputation intact.
01:06:47There's one thing I know about Scott Mangini,
01:06:49and I don't know anything.
01:06:51It's that he is a straight shooter.
01:06:52He's a guy with integrity.
01:06:55And yeah, I don't know.
01:06:56I don't think that that reputation,
01:06:58if he had that,
01:06:59is going to survive these 18 months
01:07:01and whenever he gets out.
01:07:02But now we're getting these little trickles,
01:07:05these little drips of news
01:07:07and sentencing coming down.
01:07:09So we're just waiting for those big fish
01:07:11to potentially be reeled in.
01:07:12And it seems like now
01:07:14or at least we're on our way.
01:07:16And guys maybe in this business
01:07:18won't be building,
01:07:19won't be buying Blood Builder Explosion 5000 Lightning
01:07:24anymore in the future.
01:07:25One can hope.
01:07:26All right.
01:07:26So that's going to do it for this week's edition
01:07:27of the TDN Writer's Room presented by Keeneland.
01:07:30Reminder that the Keeneland September sale
01:07:31is going on now.
01:07:32Book two starts in a couple of minutes
01:07:34and the sale runs through next Friday,
01:07:36September 24th.
01:07:37You can learn more and view the catalog
01:07:39at theworldseerlingsale.com.
01:07:41I want to thank Bill Finley,
01:07:42Gabby Gaudette for jumping in.
01:07:44Gabby and Christina Bosinakis
01:07:45have the new podcast on TDN called Let's Talk.
01:07:48Check it out.
01:07:49Check the first episode out now.
01:07:50The second episode is on deck soon.
01:07:52I also want to thank our producer, Patti Wolf,
01:07:54our Green Group Guest of the Week, Shannon Arvin,
01:07:57our Associate Producer, Katie Petruniak.
01:07:59No longer Katie Ritz.
01:08:00Katie got married over the past couple of weeks.
01:08:02Congratulations, Katie.
01:08:03We're very, very happy for you guys.
01:08:05I also want to thank our editors, Ali LaRocca,
01:08:07Anthony LaRocca and Nathan Wilkinson.
01:08:09Thank you so much for watching.
01:08:10We will see you next week.
01:08:11Hopefully back in the studio.