• 2 days ago
Transcript
00:00:00They say, the harder the work, the greater the reward.
00:00:18This is our life's work.
00:00:21Good morning, it is 909 Wednesday, May 4th.
00:00:27This is the TDN Writer's Room presented by Keeneland.
00:00:30My name is Joe Bianca.
00:00:31I'm the Associate Editor of the Thoroughbred Daily News, and it must be Derby Week, guys,
00:00:35because I checked Twitter and my feed is nothing but photos and videos.
00:00:39Of course, it's getting bad.
00:00:41It is Derby Week, but where's the nice weather, guys?
00:00:45It's freezing again here.
00:00:46We just left Keeneland where it's freezing.
00:00:48Now it's freezing and cold here in New Jersey.
00:00:50So let's hope, I believe the weather forecast for Saturday is very good, so let's keep our
00:00:55fingers crossed.
00:00:56Yeah, and with Derby & Oaks weekend coming up, that really should be the focus of everything
00:00:59and not the fact that the Mets and the Yankees are in first place and that the Rangers lost
00:01:03in triple overtime last night.
00:01:05People are talking about other sports.
00:01:06It's only going to be horse-centric.
00:01:10Thanks for not trashing my Red Sox, who were battling it out with Baltimore for last place,
00:01:15the ALE.
00:01:16Thanks for reminding me of that game last night that aged me about 10 years in one night.
00:01:20That's what I'm here for.
00:01:23The TDN Writers Room is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:01:26Miss you already, Keeneland.
00:01:27Keeneland is the home of the World's Yearling Sale.
00:01:30Make plans to attend the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, which begins Monday, September
00:01:3412th.
00:01:35Learn more at theworldyearlingsale.com.
00:01:38So it is Derby Week.
00:01:39Bill and I broke down the Derby pretty extensively the other day in our Better Things episode.
00:01:43If you haven't watched it, I suggest you go check it out.
00:01:46So we'll start with John today because we haven't heard his thoughts yet.
00:01:49John, what are your thoughts?
00:01:50Who are you scared of?
00:01:51Who are you trying to beat?
00:01:53Did the draw affect anything?
00:01:54What do you think?
00:01:55Well, first and foremost, Joe, I got to compliment you guys on the Better Things show because
00:02:00I actually had some notes written down.
00:02:03I watched your podcast and actually rewrote some of my notes based on your insight and
00:02:09Bill's excellent insight as well about the history of the Derby.
00:02:13So I just wanted to add just an overarching comment before I get into the picks.
00:02:19I thought there was some interesting takeaways.
00:02:20Number one is there's 20 horses in the race, but the sires of the horses, there's the son
00:02:27of Uncle Moe, Empire Maker, Tapit, Giant's Causeway, Pioneer of the Nile, Quality Road,
00:02:32kind of the usual suspects.
00:02:33But what I was surprised this year is listen to these up-and-coming stallions that have
00:02:37representation in the Derby, hitting a bomb, upstart, and then not one but two entries
00:02:44for Not This Time, Gunrunner, and Race Day.
00:02:47So to me, there's going to be a lot of money that's going to change hands on the stallion
00:02:51front based on how these horses run in the Derby.
00:02:54But I was really excited that there are just as many horses in the race that are by young
00:02:58up-and-coming sires as there are by the old guard.
00:03:02That made me feel very good just as an industry that the wealth is kind of getting diversified
00:03:07amongst some of these new shooters.
00:03:08I'm also talking about old guys, new guys.
00:03:11How about Brereton Jones, who's been in the business forever?
00:03:14He's bred not one but two entries in this year's Derby, Zandon and Summer's Tomorrow.
00:03:21So again, kudos to the old guard for breeding some horses with Airdrie studs that he's involved
00:03:27with and has not one but two horses in this race.
00:03:30That being said, there's no overwhelming favorite in this race.
00:03:33I can't remember in recent history when we've had such a lukewarm opening line, morning
00:03:39line favorite like we do right now.
00:03:42I think that says not only about how many horses can do well in this race, but also
00:03:47that there's no standout.
00:03:49There's no horse coming into this race that's going to be six to five or nine to five.
00:03:53I don't know if it's the effect of the fact that we've had so many preps that have been
00:03:57won by different horses, if it's the fact that the public's not rallying behind a Bafford
00:04:03horse that usually they like to do.
00:04:05I'm sure there's a lot of different reasons, but I was surprised that there's no real favorite.
00:04:10I couldn't make a favorite.
00:04:11You said to me, John, who's going to be two to one in this race?
00:04:14I don't think I can tell you right now.
00:04:16That being said, there's eight horses in this race that I think I would throw out that I
00:04:20wouldn't go through and put in a bet.
00:04:24That being said, you guys should all run to the windows and bet that trifecta box with
00:04:29those eight horses.
00:04:31As far as horses that I like, and you guys mentioned it a couple of times on better things,
00:04:36obviously Zandon is a horse that I really, really like and a horse that I think is rounding
00:04:40into shape, coming into the Derby.
00:04:44Messier, again, no brainer, not going out on a limb very much.
00:04:49A horse that I think, coming off a layoff, ran a pretty good Santa Anita Derby and is
00:04:54just bred to go long.
00:04:57I don't think there's going to be a big change between Bafford and Yaktin because quite frankly,
00:05:01I think Bafford's been training the horse all the way through and now he's just handing
00:05:04it off in name only.
00:05:07There were a couple of what I would call medium long shots that I like and Modonical's
00:05:12a horse and I know we spoke to Mike Rapoli later on about Modonical and his association
00:05:19with the horse and the fact that the horse is sired by his horse, Uncle Mo.
00:05:23I just feel like that Modonical, even though he's in the one hole, he's going to relish
00:05:27the distance.
00:05:28He's going to love going the extra furlong or two, what he's been used to running.
00:05:34I think he's really rounding into form.
00:05:36It doesn't scare me this year that he's in the one hole for two reasons.
00:05:39Not only because they changed the starting gate, which you guys have talked about before,
00:05:42so now it's all one gate as opposed to the auxiliary gate and having the one path actually
00:05:48on the inside of the rail where a horse had to make a right turn to get onto the main
00:05:52part of the track.
00:05:53Also, Modonical has run in the one or two hole in all but one of his races.
00:06:00Every single race but one, he's been in the one and two, so he's not a rush to the front
00:06:04kind of horse.
00:06:05It doesn't matter.
00:06:06The fact that he's on the rail and going to be able to save ground, I think it's going
00:06:09to help him.
00:06:10Now, he's going to have to navigate through traffic like we do on Fridays in the summertime
00:06:16here in the parkway, but I think that IRED is going to be very confident on him.
00:06:21If he can get some space, he's the horse that's going to be coming out at the end.
00:06:25Then I have two other horses that I wanted to talk about with you guys and get your opinions
00:06:30on.
00:06:31Charge It is a horse that obviously I picked in the contest and I think is rounding into
00:06:35form.
00:06:36He's a Tappet and out of an Indian Charlie mare.
00:06:38I think he's going to, again, also relish the extra distance.
00:06:42He's got tactical speed, so I think that's going to help him a lot when he breaks.
00:06:45He doesn't have to be in front, but he would like to be close to the front.
00:06:48Bill, you gave an excellent statistic on the other show about horses that have to be within
00:06:55what the first three at the first call?
00:06:57What was the stat?
00:06:59It was every derby since 2014, no winner has ever been further back than third at any call
00:07:06in the race.
00:07:07Yeah.
00:07:08I really feel like that horses with tactical speed and guys, we talked about it all throughout
00:07:12the preps where we kept saying, oh, there's so much speed.
00:07:15Oh, what's going to happen when this horse comes up?
00:07:17It really hasn't played out that way where there's just a ton of speed out there.
00:07:20I think a horse like Charge It, albeit he's only run three times, he's lightly raced and
00:07:25not seasoned.
00:07:26I think he's going to have a really good chance.
00:07:28You guys didn't, I don't think you mentioned Cyberknife, who's a horse that didn't get
00:07:33a great post, a Brad Cox horse, where really, if you knock out, if you cross out his LeComp
00:07:38race where he really didn't run at all, he's run five times and won three of them.
00:07:44I know the Arkansas Derby was a very, very watered down Arkansas Derby and a very watered
00:07:49down grade one compared to a lot of these other races, but he still ran a good number
00:07:54and he ran a good number on the sheets and he ran a good number on the buyers.
00:07:57Was it an action-packed, deep field?
00:08:01No, it wasn't.
00:08:02But he did exactly what he was supposed to do.
00:08:04He won it easily.
00:08:05And I think that he's kind of a sneaky horse to pick coming in from the 16 hole.
00:08:10So those are the five, Messier, Modonical, Zandon, Cyberknife, and Charge It in no particular
00:08:18order.
00:08:19Those would be the ones that I really like.
00:08:21And I didn't mention Teba, and I just don't know how to read him.
00:08:25And I wanted your guys' opinion on him.
00:08:27He's a $1.7 million two-year-old.
00:08:29He's bred up the wazoo.
00:08:31He's done nothing wrong.
00:08:32He won his first race in a hand ride by seven.
00:08:35And then they jumped him up from six furlongs to nine furlongs the next race, which really
00:08:39isn't easy.
00:08:40And he won that race kind of easily as well without Lasix.
00:08:44And Mike Smith is Money Mike.
00:08:46I mean, he's a guy that you have to respect.
00:08:48So I just don't know how to read that horse.
00:08:51Is he ready for a bounce?
00:08:52Because they've asked him to do so much, go six furlongs to nine furlongs, and from a
00:08:56maiden race to a grade one, and now across the country to the derby with a different
00:09:00trainer.
00:09:01That might be too much for a horse that's only run twice.
00:09:04But I think talent-wise, he's got as much talent as anybody in this race.
00:09:08Yeah, I mean, that was the horse that I think I talked the most about on Better Things was
00:09:12Teba, because he is such a wild card.
00:09:14And he's going to be one of those horses, I think, that's going to make eight or nine
00:09:18or ten to one look like the biggest overlay of the century.
00:09:21Or he's going to be a horse that flames out, and then we don't see him for another six
00:09:25months.
00:09:26And I think that there's very little in between with him.
00:09:28He's either Justify, or he's a horse that's too under-seasoned to be running in the Kentucky
00:09:34Derby.
00:09:34But I said on the show that I thought the draw helped him a lot.
00:09:38I think for a horse as inexperienced as him, the further he drew outside, the better.
00:09:43I don't think you want to be inside with a horse like that, especially inside of the
00:09:46other speed.
00:09:47And he was able to draw outside of most of the other speed.
00:09:49And like you said, Mike Smith, there are a handful of jockeys that I trust no matter
00:09:54what in big, big races.
00:09:55It's him, Joel Rosario, the Ortiz brothers, Johnny Velasquez, Luis Saez, I would say,
00:10:01like a half dozen jockeys that I trust to do the right thing in these races and not
00:10:05get the horse beat.
00:10:07That's the main thing.
00:10:07If the horse is good enough or the horse isn't good enough, the jockey doesn't get the horse
00:10:11beat.
00:10:11And Mike Smith is one of those guys who you will hardly ever see get the horse beat.
00:10:15And I think that the post aided his quest in there.
00:10:20And like you said, with Cyberknife, I wouldn't throw him out.
00:10:22Do I particularly like him?
00:10:23No, but I wouldn't throw him out.
00:10:25The thing about this derby that makes it so hard is, John, you said you had eight horses
00:10:29that you tossed.
00:10:29I only had six that I tossed.
00:10:31Ideally, if you're going to bet the race, you kind of want to be able to throw out at
00:10:35least half the field because then otherwise it gets too prohibitively expensive to bet
00:10:39these tries and supers.
00:10:40So if you have an idea on a price on the derby, this is the year to go for it.
00:10:46I think that there are a handful of horses that are slightly a cut above the rest of
00:10:50the field, but it's not a huge gap.
00:10:52It's not one of those derbies where you feel comfortable doing a four or five horse box
00:10:57and then you just move on and use those horses.
00:11:00If you've got a price idea, if anybody out there has a price idea, do not let us talk
00:11:04you off of that horse because this is a derby where I think you're going to get paid because,
00:11:10like John says, there is no clear favorite and the favorite's going to be seven to two
00:11:13or four to one.
00:11:14So even if you get two of the short prices in the try, you get a long shot in there,
00:11:19you can really get paid pretty nicely.
00:11:21So you only have to be a little right, I think, in this year's derby.
00:11:23You don't have to be all the way right.
00:11:25That's the way I like it.
00:11:26If I can be a little right and make some money, that's the way to go.
00:11:29Bill, any other thoughts on what?
00:11:31Yeah, I just want to, on that same theme, and John said what you tossed eight horses,
00:11:36I think Joe said six, we have between now and Saturday to make that list bigger.
00:11:42But no knock on what you guys are saying, because I agree with you, but John, you threw
00:11:47out six horses.
00:11:48You can't have a 14 horse trifecta box.
00:11:50That costs more money than even Jim McInvale's willing to bet on the derby.
00:11:55So the key is, I think, is that if you're playing this race, and we all agree it's very
00:12:01competitive, really wide open, but you're just going to have to bite the bullet and find five
00:12:08or six more horses to add to that list.
00:12:11That's why in the Better Things podcast, I said I'm going to throw out all the Florida
00:12:14derby horses.
00:12:15Now, I love Chargett's race, but you got to throw out somebody.
00:12:21You can't throw, if you're going to play the race, you can't, again, box 12 horses.
00:12:25So if Chargett wins, I'm not the least bit surprised.
00:12:28But I said, all right, well, wait a minute here.
00:12:31I think the Florida derby and the Arkansas derby of the major, of the 100-point prep,
00:12:37Jeff Ruby stakes, too, I don't really count that, but of the 100-point prep races were
00:12:43the two weakest.
00:12:44So therefore, I'll throw out all the Arkansas derby horses, and I'll throw out all the Florida
00:12:47derby horses.
00:12:48Now, again, that's not throwing out anybody who's necessarily going to be four to one
00:12:52in the race, but you add on to that list.
00:12:55Then, Joe, another way, I think, to play the race, like you said, you're looking at tries
00:12:59and everything, but if you have that 20 to one shot that you really think is live, put
00:13:06a win bet on it.
00:13:07Just go old school, 20 to win on whoever that horse may be, and if it's going to pay $42,
00:13:16you got $420 there.
00:13:18So maybe that's the right strategy.
00:13:20Yeah, I think, honestly, this is a win place race.
00:13:23And also, if you have one horse that you want to key with a bunch of other horses, because
00:13:29if you're like me and you don't have a dozen horses that you're willing to throw out entirely,
00:13:34find one horse you like, key them with 10, 11 other horses.
00:13:39You could spend $100 and be covered if the horse runs in the try and the try isn't filled
00:13:45with horses that you've otherwise tossed.
00:13:47I think that's the way to go, like Bill was saying.
00:13:49Win bet or find a horse you like at a good price that you're confident will at least
00:13:53hit the board, and then you can wheel in the other slots and then hope to get lucky.
00:13:57Because the Derby, I think, is the closest to a slot machine to any other race in America.
00:14:05Like a lot of other times, you have to have this strong opinion and really punch it,
00:14:09especially with so many six and seven horse fields in American racing.
00:14:13But in the Derby, that's one of the races where you can find one thing you like and
00:14:16then just spin the wheel in the other slots and then hope to get rewarded.
00:14:21Yep.
00:14:22Joe, let me just add one more thing just with regard to our contest, because we actually
00:14:26have representation in 11 out of the 20 starters.
00:14:29That's pretty good.
00:14:30Yeah, which is really, really good.
00:14:32So if we want to throw up the...
00:14:35Patty, throw up the standings right now.
00:14:37But basically, for those of you who are rooting at home, if you're rooting for any of our
00:14:42groups, I have Modonical and Charge It.
00:14:45Bill has Epicenter, Messier, who I think is a very strong combination there.
00:14:52Joe, you have Smile Happy and Classic Causeway and White Avario.
00:14:57You got three in there.
00:14:59And Al, who doesn't have a mouthpiece here in our show right now, is speaking loudly.
00:15:04He's got Zanden, Simplification, and Zozos.
00:15:07So he's got the two Zs running and Simplification.
00:15:10So he's got a really good opportunity to win this contest as well.
00:15:16But, you know...
00:15:17Don't forget Sue.
00:15:18Don't forget Sue.
00:15:19Oh, and Sue got Pioneer of Medina.
00:15:21Yeah, Pioneer of Medina snuck in.
00:15:24And Pioneer of Medina is an interesting horse because Fletcher is taking the blinkers off.
00:15:29And this horse has run...
00:15:30This will be his seventh race with seven different jockeys.
00:15:33Wow.
00:15:34Joe Bravo, Jersey Joe riding Pioneer of Medina.
00:15:36So we got to give props to the Jersey guy.
00:15:40But 11 out of 20 is a pretty good catch for us to have done.
00:15:48John, I just want to bring up another point.
00:15:49I realized we're about 20 minutes into the podcast.
00:15:53And when you talked about Epicenter in the contest, the first mention we made.
00:15:59And here's a horse that he didn't be...
00:16:01He wasn't the Morning Line favorite, but we thought he was gonna be the Morning Line favorite
00:16:04a week ago.
00:16:05And again, this is kind of a horse, and I don't know why it is.
00:16:07I can't put my finger on it.
00:16:09But it seems like nobody's on his bandwagon.
00:16:14So what's your take on him?
00:16:16And obviously, this is not a horse I would throw out, but it just seems to be that he's
00:16:22coming into this race with very kind of lukewarm feelings surrounding him.
00:16:27Yeah.
00:16:27And Bill, you mentioned before, I had eight horses that I definitely had
00:16:31weren't good that I didn't think were gonna be worthy of betting on.
00:16:34And just for cost purposes, you have to narrow your field down to five or six horses in a
00:16:39trifecta if it's gonna be cost effective.
00:16:43And I always look...
00:16:44And maybe this isn't the right way to do it.
00:16:46But when I look at a race, I always look at the favorite first and look for reasons on
00:16:49how to beat the favorite.
00:16:50And I know that's not necessarily a conventional good thing to do because favorites win a third
00:16:54of the races.
00:16:55But just from a handicapping standpoint and from a value standpoint, I usually look at
00:16:59it that way.
00:17:01And I can make a case for Epicenter to win, certainly.
00:17:04That's easy.
00:17:04But I can also make a case for Epicenter to bounce.
00:17:07And he ran such a huge race in the Risen Star, breaking the track record.
00:17:12And then came back and ran and won really impressively in the Louisiana Derby, again,
00:17:18breaking that track record.
00:17:21And I just feel like that with these young horses, when they put in those kind of performances,
00:17:26they have a tendency to bounce because it's just so hard to do it.
00:17:29Now, is that the right way to look at it?
00:17:32Probably not.
00:17:32I mean, Epicenter is definitely a horse contender and one that if I was smart, I would keep
00:17:38in a box, trifecta or dexacta box.
00:17:41But in this day and age of having like 20 horses and you have to throw out at least
00:17:4614 of them, he was the one that I cut because I just said, I think he's scheduled.
00:17:50I think he's heading for a bounce.
00:17:52I would not be surprised if he's standing, if Steve Asmussen is standing in the winner
00:17:55circle with the Winchell Group, holding the trophy with that horse.
00:18:00But I had to throw him out.
00:18:01And the same thing with Teba.
00:18:03I am so impressed with that horse's just sheer athleticism and talent, but he's only run
00:18:10twice.
00:18:11And again, you have to throw out a couple of horses that you think are really going
00:18:14to win.
00:18:14And you guys talked about that in the Better Things show as well.
00:18:19Sometimes you have to throw some horses out, not because you don't think they're going
00:18:22to win, but because it's just going to be a little harder for them to win.
00:18:25And because they're favorites, you need value somewhere else.
00:18:29Yeah.
00:18:29And Epicenter, I agree with Bill that he hasn't been talked about that much this week.
00:18:34I still stand by his Louisiana Derby, to me, was the most impressive prep that anybody
00:18:39ran all season.
00:18:40To me, it's that and Messier and the Bob Lewis won two either way.
00:18:45So I'm definitely using him.
00:18:47And it's such a big storyline.
00:18:49Steve Asmussen still trying to go for his first Derby.
00:18:52This is his best chance, I think.
00:18:54I can't think of a horse that he brought to the Derby that had a better chance.
00:18:57Maybe Curlin, perhaps Curlin.
00:19:00But other than that, it's hard to remember a horse who had better credentials than Epicenter
00:19:06going into the Derby.
00:19:07I did say on Better Things that I think he was hampered by the post a little bit.
00:19:11I think drawing inside of the other speed, it's going to be a little bit tricky going
00:19:16into the first turn for Joel Rosario.
00:19:18But again, like I said, he's one of those riders that I trust to do the right thing.
00:19:22It's just a matter of circumstance whether or not he's going to be able to get the kind
00:19:25of trip that he wants to get.
00:19:27But he's definitely a key horse on my tickets.
00:19:31But it's going to be a terrific weekend of racing.
00:19:34We're going to talk about the Oaks and the rest of the races at Churchill a little bit.
00:19:37As always, the weather is going to be a story, especially on Friday.
00:19:42I'm looking at the weather forecast right now.
00:19:43We have a 90% chance of thunderstorms on Friday.
00:19:47So that can definitely throw a monkey wrench into things for the Oaks and the undercard
00:19:50races.
00:19:51And it looks like 30% chance on Saturday.
00:19:53So it looks like Saturday is probably going to be mostly dry, at least for the Derby.
00:19:58It might be a drying out track, which I think adds another variable to the handicapping
00:20:03because those tracks can play a lot different than either a sloppy track or a fast track
00:20:07if you have those tracks that are constantly losing moisture throughout the day.
00:20:12So that's something to keep an eye on.
00:20:14But yeah, it's been a long road.
00:20:17And we're happy that we have so much representation in the contest.
00:20:19So there'll be a lot of bragging rights on the line.
00:20:23So looking forward to it.
00:20:25Looking forward to talking about it with you guys.
00:20:26And then after this break, we're going to talk about the Oaks and the rest of the weekend
00:20:30at Churchill.
00:20:31The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:20:34Keeneland concluded its spring race meet last Friday with all-sources handle topping $219
00:20:40million to establish an all-time wagering record for the track.
00:20:44And I don't know if you heard, but Keeneland's been around for a little bit.
00:20:47So that's an impressive number.
00:20:48The meet concluded with average daily purses over $1.1 million and an average field size
00:20:54of 9.1 starters per race, which is unheard of today in American racing.
00:20:59And I think that that was the real takeaway for me.
00:21:01And what a great meet it was.
00:21:03Just big field after big field after big field.
00:21:06And just adding that to the quality of horses that are running, it just makes it impossible
00:21:11not to want to bet that product.
00:21:13So shout out to Keeneland.
00:21:14Shout out to everybody at the racing office who put on such a great product, all meet.
00:21:18And obviously, we had a lot of fun being there as well.
00:21:21This weekend, Zandon and Nest, both Keeneland September yearling sales grads and the winners
00:21:26of the grade one Toyota Bluegrass and grade one Central Bank Ashland stakes are the respective
00:21:30morning line favorites in the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks.
00:21:34Keeneland sales graduates have produced 23 Derby winners, including four of the last
00:21:39six and the past five winners of the Kentucky Oaks.
00:21:42So as I said in the open, that Keeneland September yearling sale coming in starting September
00:21:4712th, and you can almost always find a big Derby or Oaks contender there.
00:21:51So definitely go check that out at theworldsearlingsale.com.
00:21:55The catalog will be out soon.
00:21:56We'll be right back after this message from Keeneland.
00:22:10Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Keeneland September yearling sale.
00:22:14A terrific maternal pedigree, grade one winners and champions across the base.
00:22:18Echoes of parties.
00:22:20Life is good.
00:22:25Go to the back.
00:22:26Good luck.
00:22:29This gleaming chestnut wins by six on debut with the promise of bigger things to come.
00:22:35Justify.
00:22:35He's on the dizzying ascent to great.
00:22:37What do you do when the experts compare you to legends?
00:22:41Justify has won the Kentucky Derby.
00:22:45He's unstoppable.
00:22:47He won.
00:22:54You justify it.
00:23:00The TDN writers room was brought to you by Coolmore.
00:23:02Follow the Coolmore Cyrus this weekend in the Derby and Oaks and the Oaks.
00:23:06My son Cupid will be represented by Desert Dawn, who I like a little bit in that race.
00:23:10We're going to talk about it in a few cocktail moments as the daughter of Uncle Mo and Shahama
00:23:14is by Munnings in the Derby.
00:23:16Obviously, the big dog Uncle Mo will be represented by Mo Donegal.
00:23:20Zozos is a son of Munnings and Classic Causeway will be the last Kentucky Derby starter for
00:23:25the late great Giants Causeway.
00:23:28All right, so we had a lot of fun talking about the Derby, but this year I think equal
00:23:33billing on the marquee is the Kentucky Oaks, because we have four really, really nice fillies.
00:23:38I think all who have legitimate shots to win champion filly this year, three-year-old filly
00:23:42this year.
00:23:43Bill and I talked a little bit about it on better things, but also just like the Derby,
00:23:48I want to hear what John says first.
00:23:50And it's the opposite story as the Derby.
00:23:53The Derby, it was like there's a lukewarm favorite and maybe there's half a dozen horses
00:23:58that you could make a case for to be the favorite.
00:24:00Here, it's the top four fillies and everybody else.
00:24:04And that's not to say that everyone else are afterthoughts.
00:24:08I mean, there are really good horses in here.
00:24:09And I think we talked over the past couple of weeks about how there were five, six, seven
00:24:13fillies that were going to be going into the Oaks that in any other year would have been
00:24:18five to one or better as far as towards favoritism.
00:24:23You have to start with Secret Oath in the one hole.
00:24:25It's a great story.
00:24:26Arrogate, the late great Arrogate, the daughter of Arrogate in here and with the general,
00:24:33D. Wayne Lucas, in charge of getting this filly ready for the Oaks.
00:24:37She ran in the Arkansas Derby and put in a pretty good race against the boys.
00:24:42And now they're running her against the girls.
00:24:43And she got the one hole with Luis Saez.
00:24:45So the connections are right.
00:24:47The breeding is right.
00:24:49The distance is right.
00:24:50I'm not happy about the post, but that's OK because she's just such a solid filly.
00:24:56In the past, I've talked about Hidden Connection and how I thought that she was a sneaky horse.
00:25:00And she ran a very good second to Echo Zula last time.
00:25:03I think she's out of her depth right now.
00:25:05I think this is going to be too far for her.
00:25:06So I'm not including her nest.
00:25:08I mean, what is what else is there to say about nest?
00:25:10Except that, in my humble opinion, I think she ran the best prep race for the boys or
00:25:16the girls, for that matter, during this entire season when she won the Ashland.
00:25:19I mean, that was just a wow, inspiring kind of race.
00:25:22Does she bounce?
00:25:23I don't know.
00:25:24It looked like she won that so easily that maybe she still had a lot in the tank.
00:25:28Also, the fact that it's probably going to rain on Friday.
00:25:31You have to look at some of these horses and how they've produced off racetracks.
00:25:36And that Ashland stake was a wet, fast track.
00:25:39And she won it very, very convincingly and has a huge wet number.
00:25:43Goddess of Fire, I think, is a sneaky long shot who's, I think, being overlooked at 15 to 1.
00:25:49Todd Fletcher horse, all she's done is finish second to some of these great,
00:25:53great horses with Kathleen O and Turner Loose and Hidden Connection.
00:25:57I think she's a horse that actually, if the race falls apart,
00:26:00she can pick up the pieces and be a sneaky long shot to complete like a trifecta box.
00:26:05And then on better things, you guys talked about the top four and including Kathleen O and Echo
00:26:12Zulu. And I'm going to go to Echo Zulu last because I have a different take on this than
00:26:15I think you guys do.
00:26:17Yes, she won the Fairground Oaks by a nose and didn't look great in that race.
00:26:23But she accomplished two things.
00:26:24Number one is she won.
00:26:26And she dug down deep and made sure that she got her nose in front.
00:26:30And number two, she was coming off like a five-month layoff.
00:26:33And sometimes these young horses need to have rust knocked off and kind of get their sea
00:26:37legs back. And I think that's exactly what happened with her.
00:26:40And since then, she's been, if you look at her, at her, all of her workouts, and you can see that
00:26:47on XBTV, that she is just a bullet after a bullet after a bullet and looks really easy doing it.
00:26:53And I really think that if Echo Zulu was sitting there at four to one or five to one,
00:26:57that's the filly that I'm going to pound on as far as betting because she's undefeated,
00:27:02two-year-old champion, a gunrunner with a really good female pedigree that looks like
00:27:06they can run all day.
00:27:07And I think just like in the derby, I think Echo Zulu is kind of being overlooked right now
00:27:13because she didn't win that last race so impressively.
00:27:16I think she did exactly what she needed to do.
00:27:18And that Steve Asmussen has her poised for the exact race that she's going to run in the Oaks.
00:27:24Two more horses, and then I'll let you guys get to it.
00:27:26Kathleen O, obviously, ran a huge race in the Gulf Stream Park Oaks.
00:27:32And Shug McGehee horse, you always figure is going to be a little bit better each time.
00:27:36I actually think that she might bounce because she improved so much.
00:27:40She improved so much from the Devoneta Dale to the Oaks that I think that maybe she's going
00:27:45to come back to Earth a little bit.
00:27:47And then guys, there's one more horse that I really want your opinions on.
00:27:50And that's Shahama, who's coming in from overseas.
00:27:54I saw her and Joe, I think you were there with me when we watched at the OBS April sale
00:27:59last year, when she sold for $425,000.
00:28:02Her breeze under tax show was unbelievable.
00:28:05She's beautiful.
00:28:07And now the $425,000 price tag is looking like it's inexpensive because she's undefeated.
00:28:12And I really feel like she's a sneaky long shot because she's one of the few horses that's
00:28:15actually cutting back in distance.
00:28:17She's run this far before, and now she's coming back.
00:28:19Now, she's undefeated overseas.
00:28:21Who did she run against?
00:28:23That's always questionable, but she did everything she needed to do.
00:28:26Her time form ratings are very solid.
00:28:28And she's also won impressively in the mud.
00:28:31So if it's an off track, she might be the kind of filly where she's sitting there 15,
00:28:3520 to 1 being trained by Todd Fletcher and ridden by Flavian Pratt, who last I checked
00:28:41is a pretty good rider.
00:28:42I think that that's a horse that's worth throwing into the trifecta box as well, and maybe a
00:28:47sneaky long shot, because if she comes in and runs her number, she's going to be very
00:28:51tough to beat also.
00:28:53John, let me comment on some of your comments.
00:28:56First of all, I'm totally the opposite direction of Echo Zulu you.
00:28:59And look, I'm not saying your scenario isn't possible, but here's my scenario.
00:29:05We know that at least 75% of the good two-year-olds don't take that next step.
00:29:12And they don't get any better.
00:29:14They're the same horse at two as they are at three, and they don't make that forward
00:29:19move.
00:29:19I believe that may be the case with Echo Zulu.
00:29:22And having said that, even if your scenario is right, she still might not be good enough.
00:29:27That's how strong this field is.
00:29:29So again, you have to take a stand.
00:29:34There's no point boxing these four horses.
00:29:36You're not going to find any value there.
00:29:37That'll be my stand on her.
00:29:39And the other one, I definitely disagree with you.
00:29:42I don't know if I mentioned on the better things that the clockers are down on.
00:29:46Kathleen, no, they didn't like her workout.
00:29:48But I would never think that a Shug McGahee-trained horse is going to bounce in the race that
00:29:55they've been pointing to from day one.
00:29:58Maybe somewhere down the line.
00:29:59But there is no trainer in the sport better at bringing his horses up step by step by
00:30:05step into the big race.
00:30:07And look at this horse's form.
00:30:09I mean, it's so prototypical McGahee.
00:30:12She's won every time.
00:30:13But from the number standpoint, she has gotten better.
00:30:16It's not like she's gone from a 60 buyer to a 90.
00:30:19It's that gradual progression every single time out.
00:30:23And on Gulfstream Park Oaks day, Shug McGahee was not thinking about winning the Gulfstream
00:30:28Park Oaks.
00:30:28He was thinking about, what am I going to do today with this horse to get her to peak
00:30:33in the Kentucky Oaks?
00:30:34Then you bring up an interesting point about the Fletcher horse, Shahama.
00:30:40You had some good insights on that.
00:30:42That's just a complete mystery to me.
00:30:43I don't know what to do.
00:30:45Sure, if you want to throw the horse in.
00:30:47I kind of wish that she had a race here.
00:30:50Again, I realize pretty soon we'll be talking about horses coming into the Kentucky Derby
00:30:55as maidens or as first time starters.
00:30:57Why not?
00:30:59But she hasn't run since February 18th.
00:31:02Yeah, so we just don't, you know, and that's twofold.
00:31:04It means she's still a mystery horse because she's never run in the U.S.
00:31:07We haven't seen her against top flight competition.
00:31:09And, you know, that is, she's coming in to the Kentucky Oaks off a layoff of what, two
00:31:14and a half months, even in this day and age.
00:31:17That seems like a lot.
00:31:19What's interesting about this race, honestly, and, you know, the wet track might throw another
00:31:24variable at it, but, you know, I just, I don't see a ton of speed.
00:31:28And I was going into this race ready to bet against Echo Zulu because, you know, like
00:31:32you guys say, and like I've said on the show before, she's a champion.
00:31:36She might be the fourth best filly in this race.
00:31:38Like, that's how good of a field it is.
00:31:41And I just thought, you know, she got in these races last year where she was loose on the
00:31:44lead, not too much behind her.
00:31:47And, you know, she was impressive, but it wasn't one of those horses that blew me away
00:31:51in terms of champions.
00:31:53But who's going to go with her in here?
00:31:55Now, the horse tour inside, Yugiri has speed.
00:31:58But other than that, I'm looking through the race and I don't know who is going to be fast
00:32:01enough to keep up with those two early.
00:32:03Maybe Hidden Connection shows a little connection on the rail.
00:32:05Yeah, maybe.
00:32:06But like, you know, beyond those horses, like it just seems like the kind of race.
00:32:11And what's interesting too is there are a lot of horses who make middle moves.
00:32:15Like Kathleen O and Nest, they made middle moves in those races, their last races, and
00:32:20blew that race apart.
00:32:21So I think it's going to be one of those races where, you know, the first quarter and a half
00:32:25are probably going to be pretty slow.
00:32:27And then the third, you might get that 23, 22, and fourth, third quarter.
00:32:31And then the race is really on after that.
00:32:33And I think it's going to be a very interesting last three, three and a half furlongs because
00:32:38I do think that it's going to be a pretty slow pace.
00:32:40But I think there are going to be a lot of jockeys on that far turn who are going to
00:32:43make that early move and try to get the jump because, you know, there are so many horses
00:32:47with big late kicks in this race.
00:32:49Secret Oath has one.
00:32:51Obviously, Kathleen O has a huge late kick.
00:32:54And Nest, you know, she's probably going to be a little bit closer than those two, but
00:32:58she's got a big late kick as well.
00:32:59And it's just what a fascinating feel because just look at all the win machines in this
00:33:04race.
00:33:05I mean, Nest is four for five with a third.
00:33:07Echo Zulu is five for five.
00:33:09Even a horse like a long shot that I like, Venti Valentine.
00:33:12Venti Valentine, yeah.
00:33:13Five starts, three wins, two seconds.
00:33:15Kathleen O is four for four.
00:33:17Shahama, like John mentioned, is four for four.
00:33:19I think she's probably a little bit slow, but, you know, she beat the boys three times
00:33:23in the UAE before winning the UAE Oaks.
00:33:26You know, Secret Oath is four for seven.
00:33:28Nostalgic is three for five.
00:33:30It's a race where you got a lot of very winning type fillies, and that makes it even harder.
00:33:36And I agree with you guys that, you know, it's going to there's no point in boxing the
00:33:40four favorites.
00:33:42I think there are a couple of horses that maybe you could sneak into the tribe.
00:33:45Perhaps the exact things are a little bit funny.
00:33:47Goddess of Fire is one of those horses.
00:33:49Venti Valentine, as I said.
00:33:51Desert Dawn, I think, ran sneaky well in the Santa Anita Oaks.
00:33:54Like, I know she was 14 to one, but she and Adair Manor were seven and a half lengths
00:33:59clear of the rest of the field that day.
00:34:01So I think she's got a little bit of talent.
00:34:04I would love to throw cocktail moments in there because I was just so impressed by her
00:34:07debut race.
00:34:08Go back and watch her debut.
00:34:09It was absolutely incredible.
00:34:11She just has not run that race since, and she was no match for Nest.
00:34:15In the Ashland.
00:34:16But, you know, just looking through the field, it's hard.
00:34:20Yeah, it's hard to find someone that you believe can beat at least two out of the four of those
00:34:25top fillies because they're just so good.
00:34:28I said it on Better Things, and I've said it earlier on this show that I just can't
00:34:31get past Nest in the Ashland.
00:34:33I thought her race was the best race I've seen, even in the Suncoast.
00:34:36Like, I know that or whatever that race is called the Florida Oaks or what's that race?
00:34:41The Suncoast.
00:34:43Yeah, yeah.
00:34:44So, I mean, she looked great in that race.
00:34:47I know the figure wasn't that big for that race, but visually, I thought she looked crazy
00:34:51impressive that day.
00:34:53Yeah.
00:34:53So to me, it's, you know, hammer Nest in the top spot.
00:34:56You know, we want to use the other three fillies underneath.
00:34:59You can make some OK money there.
00:35:01And then if you want to throw in a couple other long shots underneath.
00:35:03But I think, you know, like the Derby in a different way, I think this is a race to find
00:35:07one horse, this time, probably a short price that you can really, you know, key on.
00:35:12And then, you know, inexact as in maybe a little bit of tries.
00:35:16Do you guys have any opinions on, I mean, we didn't even talk about Nostalgic, but if
00:35:19you look at her resume and you say it's a Godolphin bred, you know, Bill Mott trained
00:35:25medallia out of a Tappet mare.
00:35:27And if you throw out the turf race, all she did was win three races out of four very
00:35:31impressively.
00:35:32I know her speed figures are improving, but they're not quite at that top level.
00:35:36But, you know, if she takes another step forward, she could she could be, you know,
00:35:40in the talking to as well as 15 to one.
00:35:42But Bill, to your point, like even if she runs a career best and improves to like a
00:35:4694 buyer, she might be third in this.
00:35:49Yeah, exactly, John.
00:35:51I mean, that's the point in a normal Kentucky Oaks.
00:35:53We might be saying here's a very live horse, but, you know, and, you know, look, maybe
00:35:58she can win.
00:35:59This is not a horse I would throw out, but it's just not this year.
00:36:03That's what it all is.
00:36:03Just keep saying not this year for just superstar horses.
00:36:09I mean, you take Secret Oath at six to one in the morning.
00:36:12I think it's way too high, by the way.
00:36:14But it's six to one in the morning line.
00:36:16We've seen plenty of Kentucky Oaks where she would be the eight to five favorite.
00:36:20Yeah, that's what we're talking about here.
00:36:22And, you know, just to circle back to what John was saying about Kathleen, you know,
00:36:27she has come a long way in a short amount of time.
00:36:30If you look at her four figures, she'd run four times, 67, 78, 85, 98.
00:36:37You know, like you said, like Bill said, Chug McGehee is the guy.
00:36:41He's the guy if you want to find a horse that can keep moving forward.
00:36:44But that's a lot of development in a short amount of time.
00:36:47And, you know, I just think she maybe is topped out for this race.
00:36:51I think of the four short prices, I'm mostly against her and Echo Zulu.
00:36:56You know, Nest and Secret Oath, I think, are the two
00:36:59most interesting horses of the shorter prices.
00:37:02That's where I land.
00:37:03You know, elsewhere, we got a lot of action on the undercards.
00:37:09It's always one of the best weekends in racing,
00:37:11the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby Day undercards.
00:37:14There are a lot of interesting horses running a lot of grade one races.
00:37:18But I'm going to toss it to Bill and John.
00:37:20And if you guys are ready, give me one or two horses that you're most looking forward to
00:37:24other than the big races.
00:37:26Well, I'll take the obvious one here, which is Jeff Christopher and the Pat DeMau.
00:37:32Is it possible the best three-year-old on the card is not in the Kentucky Derby?
00:37:36That's a, you know, I'm not going to take that leap.
00:37:39Not yet.
00:37:39But I loved this horse last year as a two-year-old.
00:37:43I mean, I thought he was just, you know, one of the most impressive
00:37:48two-year-olds I've seen in a long time, which is tremendous upside.
00:37:51I don't believe the Connections have really ever said too much about,
00:37:54you know, what has happened, why he's making his first start as a three-year-old
00:37:58on the first Saturday of May and not in the Kentucky Derby.
00:38:01But, you know, if he runs back to his form from last year, you know,
00:38:03he goes off at two to five and wins this race.
00:38:05No problem.
00:38:06The interesting thing about that is what do they do then?
00:38:10There's no way Chad Brown's going to reel his horse back in the Preakness two weeks later.
00:38:14And I can't see them running in the Belmont,
00:38:16because they're not going to go from a mile to a mile and a half.
00:38:20So I don't know what their ultimate goal is.
00:38:23Do you just pencil the Travers in as your next big race with a prep
00:38:29and something like the Peter Pan or the Dwyer or something between now and then?
00:38:34But yeah, I mean, he is phenomenal.
00:38:37I can't wait to see what he does.
00:38:38And I'm expecting big things.
00:38:42And there's a couple of horses that I'm really looking forward to making a bet on,
00:38:47or at least watching.
00:38:48She dares the devil running in the La Trian, the Grade 1 La Trian.
00:38:51She's six to five in the race.
00:38:52I know she came out of her breeder skeptic staff loss and ran a just okay race in the Azari.
00:39:00But I'm looking forward to the rust being knocked off her and she improving and doing well.
00:39:05To Philly has won half of her starts and made $2.3 million in earnings.
00:39:10So I'm excited that she's going to be running there.
00:39:12We talk about Olympiad a lot on the show,
00:39:14and he's the favorite in the Alishiva against some good,
00:39:18solid older horses like Weyburn and Max Blair and Folsom.
00:39:22I think that's a really good race also and a horse to watch.
00:39:25But we're running in the Grade 2 American Turf for three-year-olds on Derby Day.
00:39:32And at first, I was like, oh, okay, good.
00:39:34This would be a nice, solid race.
00:39:36And the Grade 2s over the past have been a little weak.
00:39:39Not so much with this race.
00:39:40This is a really salty race.
00:39:42You have Red Run in there, who's a homebred of the Windchills, a gunrunner of the Tappet mare.
00:39:48Bill, you'll appreciate this.
00:39:49For whatever reason, whenever I say his name, I always think of Red Rain,
00:39:52the song, Peter Gabriel song.
00:39:55Red Run is winning now.
00:39:58We don't need you singing.
00:39:59Come on now.
00:40:00But Red Run is running against Portfolio Company,
00:40:03who's a really solid Kitten's Joy with Chad Brown's barn.
00:40:07And Joe's favorite, Side Dog, who won the Transylvania last time out,
00:40:11is also running in the race, as well as our horse, Coinage.
00:40:14So I think this race is also a good betting race.
00:40:17I think there's a lot of good horses in the race.
00:40:19And really, there's five or six that you can make a case for.
00:40:22So I'm excited about that race as a whole.
00:40:25But there's some superstars that are going to be running this weekend also at Churchill
00:40:30that I'm really excited to watch those specific horses.
00:40:34Yep.
00:40:34And just to run down a couple of horses I'm looking at, in addition to the boys and fillies
00:40:41that you talked about, Olympiad is my guy.
00:40:44I'm going to watch him in the Alisheba.
00:40:46There's a horse I like in the Eight Bells, Matareya, who is a good elephant homebred.
00:40:51She looks so good winning the Beaumont recently at Keeneland.
00:40:57She just completely blew those fillies away.
00:40:59So I think that she's kind of on an upward trajectory where she can make some noise in
00:41:04the second half of the year against these real top class, top flight three-year-old
00:41:08fillies that we have this year.
00:41:10She's still going seven for a long.
00:41:11She has to stretch out beyond that eventually.
00:41:14She's a horse I'm definitely looking forward to seeing in the Eight Bells on the Oaks
00:41:17undercard and on the Derby undercard.
00:41:20I echo what you guys said about Jack Christopher.
00:41:23Obviously, Chad Brown is trying to ease him back now.
00:41:29I don't know that he's necessarily going to have a date with one of the Triple Crown
00:41:31races.
00:41:32But I think if he wins this race and then improves and stays together, I think he could
00:41:37have a huge summer and be one of those horses who really comes on in the second half of
00:41:41the year and challenges for a championship, for an Eclipse Award and a place on that
00:41:46podium.
00:41:48In the filly race, the Derby City Death Staff, very nice betting race.
00:41:53There's eight-horse field on the morning line.
00:41:55Six of the eight horses are between three to one and five to one.
00:41:59So that tells you what kind of betting race it's going to be.
00:42:01You got Lady Rocket just one time, who just won the Madison at Keeneland.
00:42:05Kamari Obligatory, who won the Eight Bells at Churchill last year on Derby weekend, as
00:42:10well as Bells the One and Edgeway, who are very nice fillies.
00:42:14As John was saying, we've got the big rematch between Cy Dog and Coinage, so we're looking
00:42:18forward to that.
00:42:19And the American Turf.
00:42:20And then a race that you guys didn't mention that I think looks pretty interesting is the
00:42:23Churchill Down Stakes.
00:42:25Grade one for seven furlongs for older boys, three and up.
00:42:30Aloha West, or four and up, excuse me.
00:42:32Aloha West, who won the Breeders' Cup Sprint.
00:42:34Jackie's Warrior, who came back a winner recently at Oakland, obviously the champion
00:42:38sprinter last year.
00:42:39Reinvestment Risk, who I thought, you know, he was overshadowed completely by Speaker's
00:42:44Corner with good reason in the Carter, but I think he's a pretty nice horse.
00:42:47He was second in there.
00:42:48I think he could have a pretty good year.
00:42:50Prevalence, who I thought looked good in the Commonwealth.
00:42:52We didn't talk about him when he won at Keeneland, but he's a horse that showed a lot of
00:42:57promise as a three-year-old, then kind of fell off and got hurt.
00:43:00Come back as a four-year-old, he's won a 99 and a 98 buyer.
00:43:03So I think that he could be ready to jump into that upper echelon of grade one sprinters.
00:43:07Also, Mind Control and Cezanne, who was a former Todd Pletcher horse, or former Bob
00:43:11Afford horse, now with Todd Pletcher.
00:43:13So I think that that's an interesting betting race as well.
00:43:16Thankfully, we do not have a ton of short fields.
00:43:18There are a couple of six-horse fields, but it's going to be a great betting weekend.
00:43:23The weather does not look like it's going to cooperate on Friday, unfortunately, but
00:43:27there's plenty of opportunities, opportunities to bet on.
00:43:29There's always those big maiden and allowance races, too.
00:43:32We don't, we don't have, we don't, you know, this is not worth talking about necessarily
00:43:36specific races, but those races on the undercard are always great betting races as well.
00:43:41So plenty to choose from, a smorgasbord of racing and betting opportunities this weekend.
00:43:46And, you know, can't wait to come back next week and break it all down with you guys.
00:43:50Where are you guys going to be watching the derby?
00:43:52At your house, John.
00:43:56I'm not going to be here, but you're more than welcome to.
00:43:59Where are you going?
00:44:00I'm going to Monmouth Park.
00:44:01I'm going to Monmouth Park.
00:44:03We're running a horse in the Long Branch.
00:44:04So I'm going to, I'm going to watch, I'm going to watch Glider run and then stay around and
00:44:08watch, you know, some of the other races from Churchill right from the box.
00:44:12So if you're a fan of the show and you want to come by and say hello, we'll be happy to
00:44:16sign some autographs as well, if you want that.
00:44:19And, you know, he's going to be there also.
00:44:23We'll be in box 110 at Monmouth Park.
00:44:25To get an autograph, for sure.
00:44:27I don't blame you.
00:44:27There's a longer line and rightfully so, but yeah, we'll be in box 110 at Monmouth Park.
00:44:31Come on by and bring the kids.
00:44:33But yeah, where are you guys watching the show from, the race from?
00:44:37There's a bunch of bars around here in Brooklyn that are doing derby parties, like a surprising
00:44:40amount of bars that are doing derby parties.
00:44:43I remember back in the day, I mean, I had to watch it at the old OTB because there wasn't
00:44:47anybody else anywhere else that I could really go.
00:44:49So, you know, I might put on a bow tie or something and head down to one of the local
00:44:53watering holes.
00:44:54But those are my plans.
00:44:55Bill, what about you?
00:44:56I'd just be watching at home.
00:44:57Yep.
00:44:59Such a homebody.
00:45:00But yeah, very nice, Bill.
00:45:01That's great, John.
00:45:02You'll be at Monmouth amongst the people.
00:45:04I'm going to be a man amongst the people, which again, flows right into the interview
00:45:09we have with Mr. Rapoli.
00:45:11He's a man of the people.
00:45:12Great toss, because I wanted to mention that before we go to commercial.
00:45:16After this commercial break, we're going to have our interview with Mike Rapoli.
00:45:20Honestly, maybe my favorite interview we've ever done on this show.
00:45:23We've talked to a lot of great people, had a lot of fun.
00:45:25But Mike from Queens, as he's known now to me forever, is just such a funny, down-to-earth
00:45:31guy.
00:45:32Despite all of his riches, he's easy to talk to.
00:45:35And the one thing I'll say about this episode, if you ever listen to the show with kids in
00:45:40the room, send them out of the room for this episode.
00:45:44This is not the one.
00:45:45Or put on your headphones or something.
00:45:46This is not the one to listen to with your kids around, because there were a lot of swear
00:45:51words.
00:45:51But man, did we have a lot of fun.
00:45:53And it was great to talk to him.
00:45:55He's the kind of guy that now I'm rooting for this weekend.
00:45:58So after this break, we have a long, great, funny conversation with Mike Rapoli.
00:46:03You should definitely check out.
00:46:05The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association.
00:46:09Pennsylvania bred just one time, who I mentioned in the last segment, was the winner of the
00:46:13Grade 1 Madison Stakes this spring.
00:46:14Keeneland has entered in this weekend's Grade 1 Derby City Distaff.
00:46:18The Bradcox Trainee is owned by Breeder Warriors Reward LLC and by Commonwealth New Era Racing.
00:46:23So best of luck to her and her connections this weekend.
00:46:26Also, a reminder about those PA bred, PA sired, two-year-old stallion series stakes coming
00:46:32up with two stakes on August 22nd and two on September 24th.
00:46:36You can visit pabred.com to learn more.
00:46:39We'll be right back after this message from the PHBA.
00:46:43The PA Horse Breeders Association introduces the Pennsylvania Stallion Series.
00:46:48Four brand new races to be run at parks for PA sired, PA bred two-year-olds.
00:46:53There are two $100,000 contests on August 22nd, PA Day at the Races.
00:46:59September 24th, PA Derby Day has two more races, each with a $200,000 purse.
00:47:04The PA Stallion Series, yet another reason why Pennsylvania is the premier place to breed
00:47:10and race.
00:47:10For more, please visit pabred.com.
00:47:14The Green Group Guest of the Week is sponsored by The Green Group, an accounting, tax consulting,
00:47:18and advisory firm specializing in the thoroughbred industry.
00:47:20With over 500 clients in the horse business, they have proven strategies to save you taxes.
00:47:25Learn more about how they can help you at www.greenco.com.
00:47:29So we're thrilled to bring on this week, I remember him when he was just racing cheap
00:47:32claimers at Aqueduct.
00:47:34Now he's on top of the world.
00:47:35Mike Rapoli, thanks for coming on.
00:47:37Hey, Joe.
00:47:38Hey, John.
00:47:38How are you guys?
00:47:39Great to talk to you.
00:47:40Great to have you on.
00:47:41Obviously, a big week for you.
00:47:42You got a couple of contenders in the Derby and in the Oaks.
00:47:46Nest is a shorter price.
00:47:47You got Moe Donegal in the Derby.
00:47:49Can I ask you the standard question of how they're doing, how you're feeling about them?
00:47:52But also, I know you're a handicapper too.
00:47:54So what would be your handicapping opinion on that?
00:47:57Well, handicapping gets swayed when you own horses in the race, Joe.
00:48:01Let's be clear.
00:48:03Whatever I don't want to see, I cross out.
00:48:06And then I just go on to why I have the best chance of winning.
00:48:09So you're not going to get that.
00:48:11I mean, the way I view the race, I made Moe Donegal 1 to 5, and I made Nest 1 to 9.
00:48:17It's so clear for me.
00:48:18I basically scratched out everybody.
00:48:20So I'm good.
00:48:21I'm good.
00:48:22I feel really good.
00:48:23But listen, it's a combination.
00:48:25You know, Nest, obviously, we bought her as a yearling.
00:48:29She wound up being a grade one winner to a sister to Idol, who won a grade one.
00:48:35And we own her with Eclipse and Michael House.
00:48:37And she's just, honestly, for Kerwin to be precocious, to win the Remsen, I'm sorry,
00:48:47win the Demoiselle, come back and win the two stakes this year in incredible fashion,
00:48:52especially Ashlyn.
00:48:53I mean, we all know that Kerwins want to be four-year-olds.
00:48:57So when they're talented at three, you got to feel really, really good.
00:49:01And every week that goes by, she gets older.
00:49:04And every week that she goes by, she looks better.
00:49:06So really, really excited by her.
00:49:08And I think you guys both know the distance is not going to be an issue.
00:49:11In fact, if they can move this race to a mile and a half, we'll sign up for that too.
00:49:16Moe Donegal.
00:49:18Does that mean you might run her in the Belmont?
00:49:22If you're interviewing me at the end of the race, and I have a smile on my face,
00:49:25there's a chance.
00:49:27If you're not interviewing me at the end of the race, and I'm walking to my car,
00:49:31then I might have a different answer.
00:49:32So let's just leave it at that.
00:49:33OK, fair enough.
00:49:36How are you feeling?
00:49:38Listen, Jerry Crawford and Donegal Racing.
00:49:42I mean, obviously, I follow this horse so closely for a couple reasons.
00:49:46One, he's out of Uncle Moe.
00:49:47Two, he's with Todd Fletcher.
00:49:49And three, IRAD's been on every single start.
00:49:52So I've been closely watching the horse, rooting for him behind the scenes, or
00:50:01telling Todd, how's he doing, and congratulating Donegal Racing.
00:50:04And I saw an opportunity to, I very rarely buy into a horse that's established.
00:50:11But when you got an Uncle Moe, and you got Todd Fletcher, and you got IRAD,
00:50:16and a syndicate like Donegal Racing, I think it's awesome.
00:50:18It's meant to be.
00:50:19Partners with Eclipse, partners with West Point, partners with Donegal.
00:50:25I love it.
00:50:25I mean, some single owners don't like to be partners with syndicates,
00:50:31because there's so many owners.
00:50:32But you know what?
00:50:33This will be the first race where my entourage of 70
00:50:36is going to be outnumbered by Donegal Racing 140.
00:50:39So it just tells me I can have some more friends and family.
00:50:43Absolutely.
00:50:44And let's stick with Moe Donegal still.
00:50:47I remember when we were in the derby last year, and at the post position draft,
00:50:53we were going, please don't be one or 20.
00:50:55Please don't be one or 20.
00:50:56But Moe Donegal has actually run really, really well from the inside.
00:51:00I think he won or placed in four races where he was in the inside post.
00:51:05So does the one hole bother you as a handicapper?
00:51:09You know, I'm 0 for 7 in the derby.
00:51:13I would never have won one with any other horse.
00:51:16Now that they've moved the rail out, I mean, the starting gate outside,
00:51:21it really is a straight run to the turn versus where you have to go out five lengths
00:51:25before you come in.
00:51:27Second is, if you watch Moe Donegal in the Bremsen and you watch him in the wood,
00:51:32he sits on the rail behind horses anyway.
00:51:35And I spoke to Todd right after the draw,
00:51:37and I actually text Jerry Crawford.
00:51:39I said, I don't know how you feel, but I love the one.
00:51:41And I think, you know, for a horse like Moe Donegal to win,
00:51:45you're going to have to get, you got to save ground
00:51:48and you're going to have to get a great trip.
00:51:50So part of that means getting to the rail.
00:51:53If you told me he had the 20 post, I probably wouldn't be on this podcast today.
00:51:57Because where's he going to go from the 20 post?
00:52:00He's going to have to make 20 length turn to go to the rail.
00:52:03Now he's there.
00:52:05You know, you can get stopped on the rail.
00:52:07Let's just be honest.
00:52:08On that first turn, you can be stopped.
00:52:11But if he can get around that first turn and wind, see himself at like 10 to 13th
00:52:17and then save some ground and get some speed out front.
00:52:20And you really have a great shockie who's fearless.
00:52:24You know, you know, Irad's going to be right there.
00:52:27And he's going to maneuver like you've never seen anything, anybody maneuver.
00:52:31I guess I just got to hope that when he crosses the line first,
00:52:34there's no inquiry with Irad.
00:52:36But he's going to get us there.
00:52:39He's going to get us there.
00:52:40He'll figure out.
00:52:41He'll figure out a trip.
00:52:42He'll give us a great ride.
00:52:44You mentioned Uncle Mo before.
00:52:45I was actually at Ashford last week and got to meet him for the first time.
00:52:49And he was just so impressive.
00:52:50And one of those horses that you can really tell he knows he's the shit.
00:52:54You know what I mean?
00:52:55He's got that attitude.
00:52:56He knows he's the king.
00:52:58You know, obviously, he's a very, very important horse to you.
00:53:00Do you have like an anecdote or memories of him that stick out in particular?
00:53:04You know, it's everything.
00:53:07I mean, obviously, I'm playing the game at a very, very high level now.
00:53:12And with Uncle Mo, I just went, you know, Joe, from claimers where
00:53:17you used to lose money on them.
00:53:18Now to grade ones that you lose money on, but that's OK.
00:53:21So the consistent thing is that you're losing money.
00:53:23But when he won, he gave me a taste of this is why I'm in this game.
00:53:30And, you know, I made a lot of speeches and interviews.
00:53:33And I said, listen, I'm probably never going to own a horse more talented or more
00:53:37brilliant than Uncle Mo.
00:53:39And I've had great ones.
00:53:41I've won a classic.
00:53:42I've won Travers.
00:53:43But as far as pure brilliance, I mean, Uncle Mo is Uncle Mo.
00:53:48And he had that personality the whole time.
00:53:49I mean, I guess the biggest memory I have was, you know, in the Breeders' Cup juvenile,
00:53:55you go into the paddock and you see all these horses and you pan over to Uncle Mo and you
00:54:01say, who brought the three year old in to play with the two?
00:54:05It's almost like a high school kid playing against third graders.
00:54:08And I was so nervous for like three weeks.
00:54:12Honestly, once I went to paddock, I started to get nervous for the other horses.
00:54:17He was just like, please don't hurt anyone, Uncle Mo, please.
00:54:20Just be careful with these guys.
00:54:22It was just amazing.
00:54:22He's just ahead of his time.
00:54:23And, you know, I've said this before.
00:54:26People wonder, would he get a mile and a quarter?
00:54:29He would get a mile and a half.
00:54:30I mean, he would have been American Pharoah before American Pharoah.
00:54:33And, you know what?
00:54:35He proved it in the Stallion Bowl.
00:54:36I mean, NyQuest and hopefully Mo Donoghue is his second Derby winner.
00:54:41Yep.
00:54:41And Mike, you know, you mentioned Todd Pletcher before and the importance of having a top
00:54:46trainer like that.
00:54:47He actually gave you the honor of having you introduce him in his Hall of Fame induction
00:54:53speech.
00:54:53What was that like?
00:54:56Well, I don't know if I would call Todd a top trainer.
00:54:57But I mean, I don't want you to put words in my mouth.
00:55:02That's it.
00:55:03You know, I think I was about to fire Todd.
00:55:05And right before I did, he said, hey, Mike, I just need one more thing.
00:55:08Can you do my Hall of Fame speech?
00:55:10And, you know, I kind of wish I was getting into it.
00:55:14That's what I thought it was.
00:55:14But obviously not.
00:55:16But my speech was so long, I felt like it was my speech anyway.
00:55:19So if I ever get in, all we got to do is play that speech over again.
00:55:23But, you know, when you talk about introducing or anybody to the Hall of Fame, I mean, what
00:55:32a huge honor that someone's thinking about you that.
00:55:34But when you talk about Todd, where he's in the Hall of Fame of Hall of Fame, famers,
00:55:39I mean, he's in the top 1%.
00:55:41You know, to me, he's the greatest trainer of all time.
00:55:44Hopefully he doesn't watch this.
00:55:45Usually when I speak, he just shuts it off.
00:55:46So he probably won't watch this.
00:55:49But listen, when you talk about a trainer and you talk about Colts and Phillies and
00:55:54you talk about two year olds and four year olds and you talk about sprints and distance
00:55:57and you talk about dirt and turf, who does it better than Todd?
00:56:00He, you know, he's got he's got a he's got a horse for every division and every age and
00:56:04everything.
00:56:05You know, there might be someone who, you know, who does, you know, wins more turf races
00:56:09and someone that maybe wins more three year old races.
00:56:12But when you talk about winning at everything and then when you look at the stallions, I
00:56:17mean, go look at every farm.
00:56:18You saw Uncle Mo.
00:56:19You know, I mean, what else is there and what else is on other farms?
00:56:22It's you know, I mean, he's changing the breed by himself.
00:56:25So he's he's he's he's a great person.
00:56:28I like Tracy and his kids more than him.
00:56:31I like his mom and his dad more than him.
00:56:33So he's OK.
00:56:35Don't worry, he doesn't watch the show.
00:56:36He's been on the show three times, but he doesn't watch the show.
00:56:39He didn't watch himself, that's for sure.
00:56:41He must have been bored.
00:56:42He must have been real bored when he was on.
00:56:43I'm sorry you guys stayed up.
00:56:44Wow.
00:56:45So so I got to ask about this because this is what I'm one of my hobby horses on this
00:56:50show is to talk about how much I love aqueduct.
00:56:52And I might feel like sometimes I'm the only person in the world who loves aqueduct because
00:56:56I grew up going there.
00:56:57I grew up taking the A train there.
00:56:59I know you have similar memories growing up at aqueduct.
00:57:02Will you be sad to see it go?
00:57:05Um, said I'm not so sure.
00:57:09Um, reminisce and feel good about it.
00:57:13Um, yeah, I mean, it was part of a special childhood where I would cut out of school.
00:57:19I would take the, you know, the train down to Rockaway Boulevard and and Woodhaven Boulevard
00:57:27and then walk past the White Castles.
00:57:29I probably would see you there, Joe, and just keep going in and, you know, walk around a
00:57:33flea market that was every Tuesday or Wednesday.
00:57:35I'm not sure, you know, but but, you know, for me, winning at aqueduct is just reminds
00:57:42me of being a kid with, you know, $20 in your pocket, you know, that, you know, listen,
00:57:47that the chairs are the same ones that I sat on 40 years ago.
00:57:51Kind of embarrassing that the TV is still black and white like I had in the in the in
00:57:55the 80s.
00:57:56Pretty embarrassing.
00:57:58You know, you, you, you, you know, whatever, whatever you wear, make sure you throw those
00:58:03clothes out that day.
00:58:05I think that's pretty embarrassing.
00:58:08But as far as always being Mike from Queens, you know, Joe, I'm not from Brooklyn.
00:58:12I'm from Queens, which, you know, is a much better borough.
00:58:16It's it's it's to me, it's just reminds me of my youth and in a simpler time and in a
00:58:22time where, you know, I always say, think big, dream bigger.
00:58:25And to be able to win the Wood Memorial twice and, you know, win the Cigar Mile.
00:58:29And, you know, I've had horses in the carter, haven't won that yet.
00:58:33But just winning those races are real, real special.
00:58:36You're definitely trying to start this Brooklyn, Queens beef, but I'm not taking the bait
00:58:40because you'd lose that.
00:58:42So you're smart.
00:58:43That's pretty good, Joe.
00:58:45Do you remember when there used to be Brooklyn Day and then we would get off from school
00:58:49and then Queens glommed onto it and became Brooklyn Queens Day?
00:58:52I'm still mad at you guys about that.
00:58:54Well, we had you call the day and we took off.
00:58:56So we were pretty smart, weren't we?
00:58:58You guys needed a day to take off.
00:58:59I just took off anyway.
00:59:01So go ahead, John.
00:59:03All right.
00:59:03I'm going to see if I can steer this back onto the racing rails.
00:59:07So, Mike, one of the things that we study, that Len studies, my dad, and that I study
00:59:12are trends in the industry.
00:59:14And a couple of years ago, you and partner Vinny Viola started going to the yearling
00:59:18sales and you would purchase together, you know, stallion pedigreed yearlings, primarily
00:59:26colts.
00:59:27And it seemed like that was a great strategy.
00:59:30And now you've expanded it to where I think you bought 40 or 50 yearlings, you know, colts,
00:59:36primarily that have stallion pedigrees.
00:59:39Is that a plan?
00:59:41Is that a one-year plan, three-year plan, five-year plan with Vinny or just kind of
00:59:45take it as it comes?
00:59:47Well, first, I want to talk about your dad.
00:59:50Your dad is a legend.
00:59:53John, you're lucky to have him as a dad, as you know.
00:59:56I do his class absent every year.
00:59:58Um, he invites me on, which is a huge honor.
01:00:01Um, Ed Rosen and Barbara Rosen introduced me to him.
01:00:05And, uh, um, he's just an amazing guy.
01:00:07And, um, I'm not going to give his age away on this because when you just told me his
01:00:11age, um, actually, I'm going to give it away.
01:00:14No, no, you're going to get me disowned.
01:00:15I'm going to be disowned if you tell me.
01:00:18But I'm going to tell you that knowing his age makes him a bigger legend than I even
01:00:23thought he was.
01:00:24So, uh, I've never seen a guy so passionate about horses.
01:00:28Um, he always says, Mike, I root for you.
01:00:30But if I'm in the race, I'm rooting for you for a second.
01:00:32I love that.
01:00:33Um, what he does for kids, what he does for college kids, what he does for this game.
01:00:37Um, I hope he's not, you know, that ad that you opened up with at the beginning.
01:00:41Green Group, I'm hoping he gets a discount.
01:00:43He deserves it.
01:00:44Um, but he's a, he's a great guy and, uh, and, uh, a lot more than a great horseman.
01:00:49So that's that.
01:00:50So, um, with Vinny, you know what, I mean, listen, we've been friends for 12 years.
01:00:57You know, I've had, uh, Uncle Mo and he had Liam's map and always dreaming.
01:01:01And I had stopped charging Maria and, you know, we find each other rooting for each
01:01:05other.
01:01:06There was a lot of partnerships.
01:01:07You know, I love Vinny and Teresa.
01:01:09I love the kids.
01:01:11Um, you know, they love Maria and Joya.
01:01:13Um, we're like one big, you know, happy Italian family together.
01:01:17Um, so it was fun.
01:01:19And, um, I think it gave us the opportunity to double our chances instead of me buying
01:01:2525 and him buying 25 or buying 50.
01:01:28Um, so, uh, no, I think this is, uh, I think, I think this is going to be, uh, you know,
01:01:36I think we're going to spend money every September and October and August in Saratoga and buy
01:01:41yearlings.
01:01:42Uh, I bought a bunch of two-year-olds.
01:01:43Vinny doesn't really buy two-year-olds.
01:01:45I have 30 broodmares.
01:01:46I think he has 50 broodmares.
01:01:48Uh, you know, and, uh, yeah, I think, I think we're going to do it.
01:01:51I mean, I love Vinny.
01:01:52I love Teresa and, you know, winning a race with them, whether it's the green silks or
01:01:57the blue and orange are great.
01:01:59Um, if you guys want to check though, I tell Vinny and Teresa all the time, the blue and
01:02:03orange silks seem to win more than when the green silks are.
01:02:05I'm just going to be very, very clear about that.
01:02:07We'll get our, we'll get our researches on that right away to figure out who the winner
01:02:11is, but nothing.
01:02:12I want to ask you about this before we let you go.
01:02:14It was actually reported earlier today is a big day for you.
01:02:16Uh, you and your company body armor are donating $24 million to the Mamba and Mamacita
01:02:22foundation, which is a nonprofit organization for, for youth sports.
01:02:26That's obviously it's founded in honor of the late great Kobe Bryant and his daughter
01:02:31Gianna.
01:02:31Can you just talk about why that was important to you and what kind of impact you hope that
01:02:34money will make?
01:02:36Yeah.
01:02:37I mean, it's been a, it's been a bittersweet, uh, tough two days, uh, Joe and John.
01:02:41Um, you know, I met Kobe at the end of when I had bought him on a 2007 and eight, and
01:02:47he was still focused on winning championships.
01:02:49And I got reintroduced to him in 2011.
01:02:52Um, and we just started talking.
01:02:55He saw the end of his career as a basketball player happening and wanted to talk entrepreneurs
01:03:00and, um, you know, when he, when he heard his Achilles, you know, it was the first time
01:03:05he couldn't practice like 18 hour days.
01:03:07So, um, he called and I'm up 24 hours a day.
01:03:12He's up 24 hours a day.
01:03:13So we had the first, we had that in common.
01:03:16Um, I'm pretty intense.
01:03:17I'm pretty passionate.
01:03:19He's pretty intense and passionate.
01:03:20Um, there's a reason why he had four girls and I have one girl.
01:03:23God wasn't smart enough not to give either one of us a boy.
01:03:26Um, he wouldn't want to be Kobe Bryant's son.
01:03:29Um, but we, you know, we, I started body armor, you know, um, in 2011, Kobe wanted to invest
01:03:37and, um, you know, it wasn't making money, you know, and I'll share this quick story
01:03:43with you.
01:03:43It was, it was losing money.
01:03:45I mean, we were, he, he saw we were going one, four, 6 million, but we were losing 10,
01:03:5012 and 16 million.
01:03:52So he kept bugging me about investing.
01:03:54And, uh, and one day he just, um, he had me at dinner and he just said, Hey, you know,
01:04:01I keep asking you, I'm giving this to everybody.
01:04:03I'm helping you out.
01:04:03I'm helping giving you these great ideas.
01:04:05And I'm like, if I didn't like you, I give you as much as you want.
01:04:10I like you.
01:04:11All right.
01:04:11I apologize.
01:04:12And I said, Kobe, we got a 1% chance and just repeated 1%, 1%, 1%.
01:04:20And I didn't really know what he was going to say.
01:04:22And he said, just sat there and thought, he says, grew up in Italy.
01:04:27Um, went to high school, Philadelphia was drafted at 17.
01:04:30My dad had to sign my contract when five NBA titles, um, MVPs gold medals and, um, and
01:04:38championships.
01:04:39And, uh, he said, 1%, those are the best fucking odds I've ever had in my life.
01:04:44And I was like, this guy's more intense and competitive and cycle than me.
01:04:49The truth of the matter was one was one 10th percent.
01:04:51And, and honestly, it, you know, to have a friendship that you don't talk about like
01:04:56that, and you just know you have, and, you know, you know, it was just devastating.
01:05:02And a company went to focus on, you know, doing it with Kobe versus for Kobe was so
01:05:07involved.
01:05:08And I had Vanessa, Natalia, um, Bianca and Coco at the Breeders' Cup after the sale,
01:05:15they were at Del Mar.
01:05:16We were together as a family and it was an unbelievable 12 hours with them.
01:05:20And, uh, but a very sad two months after because the realization.
01:05:24So this is about Kobe's legacy and just keeping him and Gianna's legacy around.
01:05:29Um, there's so much he can still teach us.
01:05:32There's so much he can still teach people who have never seen him play.
01:05:36His mentality, the way he looked at life, um, his intensity, um, the way he fought adversity.
01:05:43And you could see it with Vanessa, Natalia and the kids, you know, how tough they are.
01:05:48And I respect Vanessa so much.
01:05:49And anybody who thinks they're having a tough day or things are really rough, think about
01:05:55what Vanessa and Natalia and Bianca and Coco go through almost every single day.
01:06:00So to me, this $24 million donation was the least I can do.
01:06:05But, you know, I want that $24 million to be a billion dollar, uh, um, a foundation.
01:06:11You know, I want to be bigger than St. Jude.
01:06:13I want to be bigger than Ronald McDonald House.
01:06:15So this is really about, you know, keeping this going, keeping the momentum going two
01:06:20and a half years later.
01:06:21And, you know, 25 years from now, 50 years from now, 100 years from now, when we're not
01:06:25here, I want the Mamba Mambacita Foundation to still be here.
01:06:29And that really be the legacy that Kobe leaves behind.
01:06:32I think that's a great place to end it.
01:06:34And we appreciate what you're doing.
01:06:35And yeah, you're definitely carrying on the legacy and trying to make an impact.
01:06:40And we love talking to you, Mike.
01:06:41We would love to have you back on the show anytime, Mike from Queens.
01:06:44You can come talk more shit about Brooklyn even.
01:06:46We'll allow that.
01:06:47But Mike, it's great to talk to you, man.
01:06:49We appreciate it, Joe.
01:06:50Thank you, John.
01:06:51Really appreciate it.
01:06:52Say hello to your dad, OK?
01:06:53I will.
01:06:54And thanks, Mike.
01:06:55And just with this interview, you can see why you're one of the guys that everyone roots
01:06:58for.
01:06:58I mean, we just we really appreciate it.
01:07:01And the best of luck this weekend, except in the American turf, because we're running
01:07:06against you in the American turf.
01:07:07But otherwise, you can win any race.
01:07:09Did you beat?
01:07:09No, did you?
01:07:10Was your horse that one?
01:07:14You guys, lately, honestly, when I see you beat me, it's just that Len's horse just
01:07:18beat us.
01:07:18I'm like, that's OK.
01:07:22It's OK.
01:07:25John, I'm not kidding you.
01:07:26I swear to God.
01:07:27When I see that your dad beats me, honestly, I don't I, you know, now if it's in a graded
01:07:33stake, I might feel different, especially like it was recently.
01:07:36I'm fine.
01:07:37Is it all right?
01:07:37I'm fine.
01:07:39One of the reasons I like Mike is I remember being in the paddock at Saratoga and it was
01:07:42like a thirty two thousand claimer.
01:07:45And you were talking to the trainer and getting so hyped up like it was the great the biggest
01:07:49grade one race in the world.
01:07:51I was like, that's a real racing guy.
01:07:53You know, Joe, when you when you when you handicap and you want to pick three or super
01:07:58you hit a pick for your super effector, does it matter if it's a claiming race or a grade
01:08:01one?
01:08:02It doesn't matter.
01:08:03So winning a race is winning a race.
01:08:06Taking a picture is taking a picture.
01:08:08Getting into the winner's circle like, you know, you know, one of the days I'll always
01:08:12remember is we had when Uncle Mo won the champagne, I had I had a horse called Run from Grand
01:08:20Avenue, which was named after in Queens.
01:08:23Nice, nice area.
01:08:24Joe, you should look into it.
01:08:24Oh, yeah.
01:08:27In Queens, it was an old TV and we used to run to Grand Avenue, get off the bus to go
01:08:32bet the races.
01:08:33And three races later, my brother, who's a New York City cop, I named the horse.
01:08:37Gerard loves beer.
01:08:39That horse wins both claiming bosses like, holy shit.
01:08:43Now I got Uncle Mo in a grade one.
01:08:45I said, I'm going to fucking win two out of three and I'm going to lose the fucking
01:08:48champagne and I'm going to lose my shit.
01:08:51So now Uncle Mo wins and then we just go three for three.
01:08:55And that was it.
01:08:55But but I remember Run to Grand Avenue, Gerard loves beer and Uncle Mo.
01:09:00Yeah, that was the triple.
01:09:01So that was that was fun.
01:09:03And then there was another day at Aqueduct.
01:09:04You want to talk about a special day at Aqueduct?
01:09:06You know, a kid from Queens.
01:09:09I win three races in a row and they're all graded stakes and they were on the card as
01:09:14the seventh, eighth and ninth.
01:09:16Unlimited budget wins the Domizelle.
01:09:19Overanalyze wins the Remsen.
01:09:21And stay thirsty, right?
01:09:22Stay thirsty wins the Cigar Mile.
01:09:26I just hit, I just hit the pick three.
01:09:29I didn't leave.
01:09:30I took three fucking pictures in the circle.
01:09:33I guarantee there hasn't been an owner.
01:09:35Yeah.
01:09:36Can you win three graded stakes in one day?
01:09:38It's probably never been done.
01:09:39Yeah.
01:09:40And that day that they were one within an hour, I won three graded stakes.
01:09:44People don't win graded stakes in their whole life.
01:09:45I'm sitting here in a track that I went to when I was 13 and a half years old and I'm
01:09:50winning three graded stakes back to back to back.
01:09:52And if you guys saw that stay thirsty fucking Cigar Mile, I've watched it 200 times.
01:09:57It is the best nose fucking night of my life.
01:10:01It was tight.
01:10:02I've watched it a hundred times.
01:10:03We lose every time.
01:10:05If there's an investigation and there's a different angle that comes out, I'm not going
01:10:09to be surprised.
01:10:10Yeah.
01:10:10Still, I'm not convinced that we won that.
01:10:12Yeah.
01:10:13So it's so much fun.
01:10:15It really is.
01:10:17Oh, man, this was this was a lot of fun.
01:10:19Yeah, we definitely got to have you back on.
01:10:20We appreciate it, Joe.
01:10:21Thank you, John.
01:10:23The Green Group Guest of the Week is sponsored by the Green Group, an accounting, tax, consulting
01:10:27and advisory firm specializing in the thoroughbred industry.
01:10:30As this week's Green Group Guest of the Week, Mike Rapoli will receive a free one hour tax
01:10:34consultation.
01:10:35Learn more at GreenCo.com.
01:10:37We'll be right back after this message from the Green Group.
01:10:40Why do the most successful owners, breeders and horsemen select the Green Group as their
01:10:44tax advisor?
01:10:44We simply save them money and know how to make them more successful.
01:10:47Over the past 40 years, founder Leonard Green has owned and bred some of the best racehorses
01:10:52in the history of the sport.
01:10:53His in-depth, hands-on industry knowledge, combined with cutting edge tax saving strategies
01:10:57has produced positive results for his clientele and has made the Green Group the top rated
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01:11:03For a confidential and complimentary consultation, contact us at 732-634-5100 or visit our website
01:11:10at www.greenco.com.
01:11:12The Green Group.
01:11:13Proven strategies to save you taxes.
01:11:42The TDN Writers Room is brought to you by XBTV.
01:11:49The XBTV Workout of the Week this week, and there was a lot to choose from, features Wyden
01:11:53Barrio, who worked four furlongs and 48.28 on Saturday at Gulfstream, which you can see
01:11:58right now.
01:11:59If you're watching the video version of this show, he has since arrived at Churchill Downs.
01:12:02He drew post 15 with morning line odds of 10 to 1 in the Kentucky Derby.
01:12:07Definitely an interesting horse who I think might get a little bit lost on the board if
01:12:10people agree with Bill and just toss out the Florida horses.
01:12:14And as always, if you want to check out those Derby contender works, go to xbtv.com.
01:12:20They are all over every single horse, basically, who's going to run the Derby and the Oaks.
01:12:24Just search in the search bar, whatever horse you want to check out.
01:12:28And you don't have to rely on the clockers this year for this Derby and this Oaks.
01:12:33You can just formulate your own opinions.
01:12:34Just go to xbtv.com.
01:12:36Check out all the works for all the horses you're interested in.
01:12:38It's an invaluable resource, especially this time of the year.
01:12:42So we had some news on the HIZA front yesterday.
01:12:45Obviously, we all remember when the U.S.
01:12:47Anti-Doping Agency backed out of becoming the medication policy enforcer in the Horse
01:12:55Racing Integrity and Safety Act.
01:12:56So then the HIZA board of directors has selected a different organization to run all the drug
01:13:03programs in HIZA.
01:13:05It's Drug Free Sport International, also known as DFS, to build HIZA's independent
01:13:09anti-doping and medication control enforcement agency.
01:13:13I haven't really heard of them.
01:13:15Just to be honest, it doesn't mean that they're not competent and that they won't do a good
01:13:18job.
01:13:19But it's just they don't necessarily have the same credibility that USADA automatically
01:13:24brought.
01:13:24But Bill probably knows more about this than me.
01:13:26Go ahead, Bill.
01:13:27Well, I never heard of them either.
01:13:29So let's get all three.
01:13:30John, have you ever heard of these guys?
01:13:31Not before this article, no, sir.
01:13:33Yeah, so, you know, I could be totally wrong about this.
01:13:37And here's my concern.
01:13:39Now, you know, they they do drug testing for everybody under the sun, which is odd that
01:13:45we've never heard of them.
01:13:47NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NCAA.
01:13:51But do they?
01:13:53So so if they're testing for steroids in baseball, they're clearly the organization that Major
01:13:58League Baseball uses to see if player X was on steroids or not, or whatever other drugs
01:14:04may not be allowed.
01:14:07My worry is, and I don't know this, but one reason when it was because this organization,
01:14:11nobody knows anything about them.
01:14:13Do they do anything other than drug test?
01:14:15Do they are they showing up at Mike Trout's house in the middle of December to do out
01:14:19of competition testing?
01:14:20I doubt it very much.
01:14:22Are they doing anything along the lines of, you know, boots on the ground investigations
01:14:29you know, maybe, but I doubt it very much.
01:14:32My fear here is that what they've done is they've taken the process of the drug testing
01:14:39and transferred it from the states to Drug Free Sports International.
01:14:42Again, I preface this.
01:14:43I could be totally wrong about this, but I don't think that I am.
01:14:47If all this outfit does is do drug testing, this is not any sort of improvement over the
01:14:53system we have now.
01:14:55Everybody wanted USADA because we know that they were going to go out and do the type
01:15:00of things that were included in the FBI raid that got all these trainers in trouble in
01:15:05the first place, and they have this track record.
01:15:08So, you know, they are the gold standard winning.
01:15:11So we went from the gold standard in drug testing in sports to an outfit.
01:15:17They're all sort of who, what do they do?
01:15:20Hey, they can prove me wrong and I hope they do.
01:15:21I hope these guys are great.
01:15:23Absolutely great.
01:15:25But guys, you know, from the minute it was announced that USADA was out of this, I just
01:15:32have never, I've just been completely down and discouraged about the Horse Racing Integrity
01:15:37Safety Act.
01:15:37And frankly, this announcement that came out yesterday kind of just lends to that feeling
01:15:43of, you know, boy, this thing was so promising, but it's not going to be what we hoped it
01:15:47would be.
01:15:48Yeah, and I think when HIZA, you know, the rules and we thought the pie in the sky situation
01:15:55was going to be where we'd have a new set of uniform rules, which would be great for
01:15:59racing and everyone involved, and that USADA would be the bulldog that would have the teeth
01:16:04to be able to not only do the drug testing, but also do the investigative work as well,
01:16:10which is really the more important part of this deal, because we've done testing for
01:16:14a long time and obviously testing isn't the important part.
01:16:17It's not what works.
01:16:17It's not what catches cheaters, necessarily.
01:16:20It's the investigative part of it.
01:16:22And I think, unfortunately, from a negotiation standpoint, we kind of, as an industry, got
01:16:26over our skis a little bit, assuming that HIZA and USADA were going to be, you know,
01:16:29kind of a coupled entry, one of the same.
01:16:31And then when the price tag allegedly came out that it was going to be way too much money
01:16:35to employ USADA to, you know, for HIZA rules, we were kind of screwed as an industry because
01:16:44we've been going along, going along with, you know, expecting to have this partnership.
01:16:48And then we didn't.
01:16:49Now, you know, maybe, Bill, I agree with everything you're saying.
01:16:52Maybe it's a situation where, like, we don't really know the names and criteria and bios
01:17:01of the umpires and the referees that are involved in NFL and Major League Baseball.
01:17:06And we don't know them because, like, they don't do anything wrong.
01:17:10So therefore, you kind of don't really know anything about them.
01:17:12Maybe that's why none of us have heard of the Drug-Free Sport International group.
01:17:17I don't know if that's really a, you know, a real argument, but I'm hoping that because
01:17:23these guys have been employed by all the other major sports, that they know what they're
01:17:27doing with regard to the testing part.
01:17:29But yeah, man, the investigative part was really the important, in my estimation, was
01:17:34the important, you know, portion of the HIZA rule with the coupling with USADA.
01:17:39Well, I will say this, and this is from the article in today's TDN on the investigative
01:17:45front.
01:17:45It says, it is expected that the investigative function will be supported by Five Stones
01:17:50Intelligence, which is a leading professional services company comprised of former DEA,
01:17:55FBI, IRS, ATF, and NYPD special agents and detectives.
01:18:00They have led some, according to the article, have led some of the largest sports investigations
01:18:04in history.
01:18:05And if you remember, the Five Stones investigation led, in a lot of ways, the FBI indictments
01:18:13that happened in March of 2020.
01:18:15So I think if that's true, you know, just as it is expected, it doesn't say they're
01:18:19definitely going to serve that function.
01:18:22But in that way, if you have that as kind of a supporting thing to the drug testing,
01:18:28then you're talking about something a little bit different.
01:18:31And I think the one other positive thing was that before USADA backed out, they did
01:18:36release those draft rules, those draft medication rules.
01:18:39So at least the new organization has something to piggyback off of and to go off of going
01:18:45forward when it comes to making medication policy.
01:18:48Now, the goal is to, I'm quoting again from the story, it says, the draft rules will be
01:18:52presented to the HIZA board of directors for approval and then submitted to the FTC by
01:18:57July 1st to initiate its rulemaking process with the goal of implementing the FTC-approved
01:19:02program on January 1st, 2023.
01:19:05So the goal is still to have the new medication rules in place by the first of next year.
01:19:12We'll see.
01:19:12There's a lot of stuff that we thought was going to happen by now that hasn't necessarily
01:19:16happened.
01:19:17States are still deciding whether or not to opt into HIZA or not.
01:19:20California was the first state to do so a week or two ago.
01:19:25New Jersey did not opt in.
01:19:27So that's a whole other mess in terms of how we get all of these states on board.
01:19:33Still a lot of cost structure issues to figure out.
01:19:36But yeah, I think that what happened when USADA backed out is now we're in a little
01:19:41bit of a scramble mode to try to get someone to fill their role.
01:19:45And I just don't think, no matter who it is, you can find any other organization in America
01:19:50or in the world who has their kind of credibility to do this sort of thing.
01:19:55So I hope that the draft rules that USADA put out are a good template, a good enough
01:20:01template.
01:20:02I hope that Five Stones will still stay in and do that investigative work.
01:20:06Because it takes a village.
01:20:08It's going to take a village to clean up this sport.
01:20:10And I think that there are some good things happening.
01:20:12And here's some positive momentum.
01:20:14But we were right on the cusp of finally having a uniform program and enforcement.
01:20:20And it's just now it's like, I'll believe it when I see it.
01:20:23That's kind of how I feel.
01:20:24Yeah, John.
01:20:25Again, I hope we can go back someday and I'll have egg all over my face.
01:20:28But this feels like we were shopping for a Mercedes-Benz and then we realized, ah, we
01:20:34can't afford it.
01:20:34That's too much money.
01:20:35So we bought a Toyota.
01:20:36That's my take on it.
01:20:38The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by West Point Thoroughbreds.
01:20:41Joining a West Point Thoroughbreds partnership can vault you into the world of instant camaraderie
01:20:45among people surrounding high-class sources and stakes action for a fraction of the cost
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01:20:51You can learn more at westpointtb.com.
01:20:54West Point was represented by a winner at Golden Gate on Thursday with Crossword, who's
01:20:57trained by Andy Mathis.
01:20:58And they have three horses lined up for Kentucky Oaks Day and four more for the Derby Undercard,
01:21:04including Obezos in the new Knicks Go!
01:21:06Overnight Stakes and Calorie Charge in the old Forrester Terp Classic Stakes.
01:21:11So best of luck to West Point and all the partners.
01:21:13It's going to be great to see y'all out there and see those golden black silks this weekend.
01:21:17They're always present on these big days and this weekend has no exception.
01:21:21So we'll be right back after this message from West Point Thoroughbreds.
01:21:26All the thrills.
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01:21:55Being a small family business, I guess we're part of a dying breed.
01:21:58We're really grateful for the people that entrust us.
01:22:01We know it's a huge responsibility.
01:22:03We're always with your horse every step of the way.
01:22:07When it comes to being at the sales ground, showing your horses, we are with your horse.
01:22:11Just driving up and down the road every day.
01:22:13There's not a time that I don't look out and feel a responsibility to the sport,
01:22:16the animal, the people that come to invest in the game.
01:22:19I want to see as many people enjoy this sport as they possibly can
01:22:22because we do have the most beautiful sport in the world.
01:22:27The TDN Rider's Room is brought to you by Legacy Bloodstock.
01:22:30If you think that 50 years combined experience in the horse business
01:22:33could benefit your program, give Tommy or Wendy a call.
01:22:36They personally advise on each horse as if they were their own.
01:22:39The deadline for entry for the Fasig-Tipton July and Saratoga sale is May 6th.
01:22:43That's coming right up.
01:22:43That's this Friday at the Fasig-Tipton July sale.
01:22:46Legacy has exceeded the sales average for the past six years.
01:22:49And at the Fasig-Saratoga sale, they've sold 87% of offerings since 2007.
01:22:55Tommy and Wendy have a great clearance rate at all these sales.
01:22:58Like I said, the yearling sale season right around the corner.
01:23:00So definitely go check them out.
01:23:02So there's some very sad news to report before we wrap up the show.
01:23:06Callie Witt, who was an exercise rider for Joe Sharp,
01:23:09unfortunately, tragically died last Friday morning in an accident on the Keeneland training track.
01:23:16And it's obviously a tragedy.
01:23:18Anytime anybody dies on the racetrack, but she was only 20 years old.
01:23:22So that makes it extra sad and hard for her family and her friends.
01:23:25So we send out all our condolences to her family and friends.
01:23:28And there were a lot of nice tributes to Callie over the weekend at Keeneland,
01:23:33particularly her pony Miles was in the winner's circle when Joe Sharp won a race on Saturday.
01:23:39So it's obviously devastating news for the racing community.
01:23:42And I also wanted to extend my particular condolences to Remy Balak, who was a teacher of hers.
01:23:49And this weekend's cartoon, we'll throw it up at the end of this, was a dedication to her from Remy.
01:23:56So we're very sorry to Remy.
01:23:58Again, all of Callie's friends and family.
01:24:00And the Witt family asked that in lieu of flowers, donations can be made in Callie Witt's name
01:24:05to the Callie Witt Memorial Fund at BCTC Equine, home of the North American Racing Academy,
01:24:11the Jockey Club Safety Net Foundation, and or the Bluegrass Farms Charities.
01:24:15So definitely you can do some good work to remember and memorialize Callie's name.
01:24:19So once again, just so sorry to her, all of her family and friends.
01:24:22It's a horrible tragedy.
01:24:23But yeah, send those donations in in her name for sure.
01:24:35Okay, so that's going to do it for this week's edition of the TDN Writer's Room,
01:24:39presented by Keeneland.
01:24:40Make plans to attend the Keeneland September Yearling Sale starting Monday, September 12th.
01:24:44You can learn more at theworldyearlingsale.com.
01:24:47I want to thank Bill Finley, John Green, our Green Group Guest of the Week, Mike Rapoli,
01:24:51our producer, Patty Wolf, our associate producer, Katie Petruniak, and our editors,
01:24:55Anthony LaRocca, Aliyah LaRocca, and Nathan Wilkinson.
01:24:58Thank you so much for watching.
01:25:00Enjoy the heck out of Oaks and Derby weekend.

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1:06:43
Dale Romans Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:03:55
Michael Blowen Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:03:20
Mike Repole Joins TDN Writers' Room
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59:21
Everett Dobson Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:10:56
Mark Casse Talks Sandman on the TDN Writers' Room
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1:11:24
Locked and Journalism Co-Owner Aron Wellman Joins TDN Writers' Room
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1:09:41
Tyle Gaffalione Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:19:52
Dave O'Rourke Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:47:25
Tom Rooney Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:20:55
Bret Calhoun Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:16:13
Godolphin's Michael Banahan Joins TDN Writers' Room
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1:14:45
Michael Mulvihill Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:01:46
Doug O'Neill Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:12:13
Ken McPeek Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:26:29
Aron Wellman Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:09:06
Amy Moore Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:08:55
Michael Behrens Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:17:41
Sean Tugel Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:03:01
Todd Pletcher Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:26:48
Alan Foreman Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:02:22
Terry Finley Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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59:01
Bill Farish Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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1:13:27
Jerry Crawford Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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58:40
Kiaran McLaughlin Joins the TDN Writers' Room
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