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00:00:00For the love of the horse, for generations to come.
00:00:28And welcome to another edition of the TDN Writer's Room Podcast.
00:00:31My name is Bill Finley.
00:00:32I'm a correspondent for the Thoroughbred Daily News, and I also co-host the Down the
00:00:36Stretch radio show on Saturdays with the legendary Dave Johnson.
00:00:39How y'all doing?
00:00:40I'm Randy Moss with NBC Sports and part of the Buyer Speed Figure team as well.
00:00:47TD Thornton here speaking to you from Boston, and I'm a stablemate of Bill's, a correspondent
00:00:52with Thoroughbred Daily News.
00:00:55All right, guys, well, there was plenty to write about when it comes to the situation
00:00:58in California last week, and it's kind of an ugly story.
00:01:02I'm sure most people that were watching the podcast, listening to the podcast know the
00:01:06particulars, but I'll just give you the skinny on it right now.
00:01:11Santa Anita, on the day before a California horse racing board meeting in which they were
00:01:16going to be asked to ratify a dates request from Pleasant and Fair, put out a statement
00:01:24that was pretty, it was a lot of saber rattling there.
00:01:27They said that if they approve the expansion of the California Fair Circuit up north, they
00:01:33would look into either selling or closing Santa Anita Park.
00:01:39And I mean, that's pretty scary stuff to hear that.
00:01:42They want the Northern California Circuit to disappear for a couple of reasons.
00:01:47Number one is they think they're going to get all the Northern California horses to
00:01:50ship down to Santa Anita so they have a bigger horse population.
00:01:54The other is that the simulcasting money is now divided between North and South.
00:01:59They figure if the North goes away, they will get all the simulcasting money.
00:02:02So that's what happened.
00:02:04The CHRB actually seemed to be angered by these threats from the first racing in the
00:02:11Stronach group.
00:02:13One of the commissioners said, I'm upset because I don't do well with bullying, which he said
00:02:18in response to the letter written by Craig Favreau.
00:02:20But where's this all going?
00:02:22What does it mean for the future of racing in California?
00:02:26And is Santa Anita in dire trouble?
00:02:31I'll let Randy take that first and then hear what T.D. has to say.
00:02:35Well, when they actually had the meeting and voted, I think Craig Favreau sort of put his
00:02:40saber back in his sheath just a little bit and said that he had spoken to Belinda Stronach
00:02:46and that Belinda was committed to trying to make the best of the situation short and
00:02:51long term at Santa Anita.
00:02:53Look, I'm just glad I'm not on the CHRB board.
00:02:57They had an impossible choice to make because there's really, my opinion, there's no real
00:03:02wrong answer there.
00:03:04You've got a breeding industry in Northern California and a lot of people whose livelihoods
00:03:11are tied up to racing in Northern California.
00:03:16Clearly, Santa Anita First Racing felt like they couldn't make a go of it at Golden Gate.
00:03:21They were reportedly losing quite a bit of money and it would be very difficult for the
00:03:25CHRB board to just completely turn away from a group that wanted, still wanted to give
00:03:31racing in Northern California a go at Pleasanton.
00:03:36So I don't really feel like they had a choice other than to do what they did and to see
00:03:43if they could make Northern California racing profitable, right?
00:03:49But by the same token, I don't think Craig Fravel or Del Mar are wrong in what they were
00:03:56hoping to accomplish with increasing purses primarily at Santa Anita and Del Mar because
00:04:02that is a major problem right now at Santa Anita.
00:04:05I mean, they're losing in the horse population.
00:04:09If you're a breeder or an owner with a really good three-year-old, a lot of people are saying,
00:04:14why send them to Southern California and have to knock my head against Bob Baffert all the
00:04:19time when the purses are much higher in New York, they're much higher in Kentucky, they're
00:04:24much higher in Arkansas, all because of casino-funded purse money, which California doesn't have.
00:04:36They really don't have any prospects right now of getting additional casino gambling
00:04:43to fuel their purses at Santa Anita, because right now there are more than 70 Native American
00:04:50casinos operating in California.
00:04:52They are a huge, they have a huge lobby with the legislators in California.
00:04:59And in talking to people at Santa Anita and elsewhere, even the legislators in California
00:05:04that are extremely friendly to horse racing, right?
00:05:09Anytime someone from the racetracks comes to them and even tries to initiate a conversation
00:05:15about expanded gaming, they get the Heisman, nope, don't even go there, don't even start
00:05:21that conversation.
00:05:23So it's really a difficult situation that Santa Anita finds itself in.
00:05:28And maybe it's a little bit alarmist to say that the future of Santa Anita is in jeopardy,
00:05:35but I don't think that's terribly far-fetched, given the situation that they're in right
00:05:40now with purses and with horse population.
00:05:43They've got to find something.
00:05:44That's why they're doing the California Crown, Belinda's trying anything she can try, I think,
00:05:50to try to turn things around a little at Santa Anita, but there is a problem, definitely.
00:05:56And I covered this meeting for TDN, and the chief takeaway for me was, after all the smoke
00:06:02and cleared, after the 6-0 vote to give the go-ahead for Pleasanton to try to become the
00:06:07new center of Northern California racing, the chief takeaway was we have to stop thinking
00:06:14of ourselves, this is the California folks talking, as North versus South, as two separate
00:06:19circuits.
00:06:20It doesn't work that way anymore.
00:06:21It's not going to work that way anymore going forward.
00:06:23They have to think of the state as an entire entity and stop the regionalism and the factionalism
00:06:30that's come up out of this.
00:06:32Although I will say, the folks from the North, they blitzed the interests that were in favor
00:06:37of the Santa Anita, Del Mar, and Thoroughbred Owners of California plan to kind of redistribute
00:06:44that purse money.
00:06:45They did have a tremendous amount of support, but they're going to have to act as one entity
00:06:49if they do want to have a future.
00:06:51Randy, you brought up a lot of good points, and look, I hope that Santa Anita is here
00:06:5650 years from now.
00:06:59My grandchildren will be going to the Santa Anita Handicap and the Santa Anita Derby.
00:07:03There was one thing in Frable's letter that really jumped off the page to me.
00:07:08He said, over the last five years, they've lost $31 million operating the track, plus
00:07:13they spent $32 million in capital expenditures.
00:07:16That's a lot of money.
00:07:18You can't look at this business as the status quo of Santa Anita and say, well, you can
00:07:25do this, you can do that, and then you can become profitable.
00:07:28No, they can't.
00:07:29There's nothing that they can do to erase that $63 million deficit.
00:07:34They can cut a few corners here, maybe not do so many, maybe shelve some of the capital
00:07:40expenditures they're planning to put in, but I think those of us in racing sometimes forget
00:07:45that these are business people, and you run a business no different than a guy who owns
00:07:51a restaurant.
00:07:52He gets no customers.
00:07:53He's not making any money.
00:07:54He's going to close down the restaurant.
00:07:55Randy, I just don't see any way that they can reverse this, and then so the choices
00:08:00look to be we can continue to lose money, or we could sell the place for $1 billion.
00:08:07I think the Stronach Group, by and large, has been very loyal to racing, much more so
00:08:12than Churchill Downs, and I think that they like racing and want to do the right thing
00:08:17by the sport.
00:08:18But man, those numbers, what person, just looking at this from a bottom line business
00:08:24standpoint, wouldn't close the place down?
00:08:27You know, 20, 25 years ago, there were people within the industry that were loudly proclaiming
00:08:35the sport does not need to get hooked up with casino gambling.
00:08:38You're making a deal with the devil.
00:08:41Now we've gotten to the point where, much like Lew Sella told us as the Green Group
00:08:45guest of the week last year, he believes that in 10 years tracks that major racetracks
00:08:52that aren't affiliated with some sort of casino gambling will cease to exist, and that seems
00:08:58to be the only solution that I can see, at least, to the problems at Santa Anita, and
00:09:06yet it's a solution that doesn't seem to have a happy ending based on what the political
00:09:13ramifications are right now.
00:09:15I can see a couple things may be happening.
00:09:20If it gets to the point where legislators believe that Santa Anita might truly be in
00:09:25danger of shutting down, might that change the equation somewhat with their relationships
00:09:33with gambling vis-a-vis the Indian tribes?
00:09:35If not, it may come down to the point where if Belinda wants to sell, that the legislators
00:09:43then tell the Indian tribes, look, we're either going to approve casino wagering at Santa
00:09:50Anita or you can buy the racetrack yourself and run it as an Indian tribe, which we see
00:09:58at Remington Park and we see at Lone Star Park, and then you can, you know, try to get
00:10:04casino gaming there and be part of it along with your casinos.
00:10:10Those are the two options that I can see, but maybe I'm overlooking something, TD.
00:10:15Yeah, certainly a difficult situation for sure, and I don't think that this is the last
00:10:19that we're going to be discussing it.
00:10:22We do wish the folks in Northern California some luck going forward with Pleasanton Venture.
00:10:26I want to remind you that the TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:10:29Congratulations to this weekend's winning Keeneland graduates, including Louisiana Derby
00:10:33winner, Catching Freedom.
00:10:36And a reminder that the entry deadline for the April Horses of Racing Age sale print
00:10:39catalog is April 1st.
00:10:42Supplements will continue to be considered until the sales date.
00:10:44We'll be right back after this message from Keeneland.
00:10:48At Keeneland, a horse will always be measured in hands.
00:10:58Hands that see, that sense, that speak.
00:11:06Hands that hold our sport to a higher standard, not for our sake, but for theirs, for the
00:11:14love of the horse, for generations to come.
00:11:18The fastest horse of the week is brought to you by the Red Hot Constitution, one of those
00:11:22fast sires at Windstar Farm.
00:11:24And as you might be able to guess from his name, Catching Freedom, the Louisiana Derby
00:11:28winner is a son of Constitution.
00:11:31And it's not just Catching Freedom that's making headlines.
00:11:33Overall, Constitution is the number two sire of 2024 three-year-olds, and Constitution
00:11:40stands now for $110,000 at Windstar Farm.
00:11:44Now for the fastest horse of the week, who is also the fastest horse of the year and
00:11:48essentially the fastest horse of the last two years.
00:11:52Remarkably, she's a six-year-old Louisiana-bred mare by the name of Ova Charged, who won Sunday's
00:11:58Paige Cortez stakes on closing day at the fairgrounds, a five-and-a-half furlong turf
00:12:03race, mind you, by 12-and-a-half lengths, with a buyer speed figure of 113.
00:12:11Not only the highest buyer speed figure of this year, it's the highest since Flightline
00:12:15won the Breeders' Cup Classic November 5, 2022, and it's the highest at the fairgrounds
00:12:21in the last 12 years.
00:12:24Ova Charged is a freak.
00:12:27She's won 12 of her last 15 starts, three-for-three on turf, all in sprints, a combined 24-and-three-quarters
00:12:33lengths, probably has to be considered one of, if not the, fastest turf sprinter in the
00:12:38country right now, owned by the Britland Stable, trained by Shane Wilson, and another offspring
00:12:44of the Louisiana Super Sire, Star Guitar.
00:12:48We talked to Jed Dillon last week, he's got that really good Louisiana-bred touch-up on
00:12:52a Star, right?
00:12:53Who was second in the New Orleans Classic, ran a heck of a race on Saturday, by Star
00:12:56Guitar.
00:12:57The race after Ova Charged was the Star Guitar stakes, won by a horse named Behemoth Star,
00:13:02a son of Star Guitar.
00:13:04I know if I had a really good brood mare and I was in the business of racing and not commercially
00:13:10selling them, I would probably send it to this $5,500 stud-fee stallion, Star Guitar,
00:13:16down in Louisiana.
00:13:17Ova Charged, though, is really something else.
00:13:24Yeah, that was quite a story coming out of fairgrounds over the weekend.
00:13:28Speaking of fairgrounds, let's do our recap and review of last weekend's action.
00:13:34We're going to talk to Brad Cox a little bit later, and he was the man of the hour at the
00:13:38fairgrounds, winning both the Louisiana Derby and the Fairgrounds Oaks, Louisiana Derby with
00:13:43Catching Freedom, and the Fairgrounds Oaks with Tarifa.
00:13:4697 buyer for Catching Freedom, you know, is he the derby favorite?
00:13:52No.
00:13:53Is he, you know, one of the five best horses in the derby?
00:13:56Maybe.
00:13:57Definitely one of the 10 best.
00:13:58But I tell you, the one thing that did impress me about him was the kind of trip that he
00:14:02got.
00:14:03He was 11th and last down the backstretch, and the pace was not fast.
00:14:07They went 23.49 and 48.33.
00:14:11He came from the clouds and overcame that slow pace to win pretty impressively.
00:14:16That would lead you to believe that a mile and a quarter is not going to be any kind
00:14:19of problem for him.
00:14:20But yeah, I thought that the pace that he overcame, the disappointment of the race to
00:14:24me was track phantom.
00:14:26I was worried that he would have trouble from the 12 pole, 12 hole.
00:14:31He had no trouble whatsoever.
00:14:32The jock did a great job getting him over saving ground.
00:14:34He just ran forth and had no real excuse.
00:14:36Didi, what'd you think?
00:14:37You know, I'm going to take a contrary point of view there.
00:14:41I think, yes, it was a disappointing effort, but track phantom did have things all his
00:14:47own way.
00:14:48But he also, when they turned for home, he had five horses stacking up behind him and
00:14:52he looked to be swallowed up within a matter of a couple of strides.
00:14:56He stayed on under duress until the 16th pole.
00:14:59And this is a horse that I think when you widen the lens and look at the Derby picture
00:15:04this year and see that it is not replete with speed horses, there aren't a lot of early
00:15:08blazers on the front end.
00:15:10It's very stacked heavily with horses who are mid pack closers or horses who fire from
00:15:14well off the tailgate.
00:15:15You know, you get five more weeks.
00:15:18Trainer Steve Asmussen sharpens him a little bit.
00:15:20He could be kind of a little bit of a wise guy threat, although I will agree with your
00:15:23first blush analysis that it was a disappointing try.
00:15:28And I believe that catching freedom right now before we see any of these other major
00:15:34Derby preps would have to be considered one of the top five Kentucky Derby contenders.
00:15:39I loved his race.
00:15:41The pace, as you pointed out, was not particularly fast and he was last early.
00:15:46And it's not very often that you see a horse from that far back in a slow paced race run
00:15:52by horses as authoritatively as he did around the second turn.
00:15:57He had a heck of a turn of foot wide running around the second turn.
00:16:02Second thing I want to point out, I want to talk about here's the speed figure, right?
00:16:0597 by our speed figure.
00:16:07It's an ironclad, easy to make solid speed figure, right?
00:16:12It's a huge improvement for almost every horse in the race, right?
00:16:17And it's an ironclad speed figure as opposed to the primary prep race for the Louisiana
00:16:24Derby, the Risen Star.
00:16:26And here's what I mean by that.
00:16:28I do the speed figures at fairgrounds and the bane of a speed figure maker's existence
00:16:35is a racetrack surface, especially on a major stakes day that changes from the beginning
00:16:41to the end.
00:16:42You typically see that when you have weather conditions at a racetrack, right?
00:16:47And on Risen Star day, it was horribly sloppy.
00:16:50They were getting intermittent rain showers throughout the day.
00:16:54And when you look at the dirt races as a whole, there was absolutely no doubt that the final
00:17:00two races on the card, the Rachel Alexander and the Risen Star, were run over a much slower
00:17:07track surface than even an hour before when they ran the mineshaft stakes for older horses.
00:17:14If you had just looked at the mineshaft result and you had applied that same variant to the
00:17:18last two races and assume that the track didn't change, then both Tarifa and Sierra Leone
00:17:24would have run buyer speed figures of an 83.
00:17:27So obviously the track got a lot slower for those two races, but how much slower?
00:17:32It's a guessing game.
00:17:33They're improving three-year-olds, Phillies and Colts.
00:17:36It's really difficult to tell how much they could have improved.
00:17:42And on top of it all, the pace in the Risen Star was slow.
00:17:46As it turns out, I think in hindsight, if you're handicapping, I think you can look
00:17:50at the Risen Star buyer speed figure of 90 and you can probably mentally give it about
00:17:57a four to five point boost.
00:18:01So you could look at Sierra Leone as more like a 94 or a 95 horse instead of a 90 horse.
00:18:07And I think Track Phantom ran his usual typical race and just was outrun by the three horses
00:18:16in front of him.
00:18:17And Tuscan Gold, by the way, the third place finisher, ran a heck of a race in defeat.
00:18:22And if he had gotten a little bit better ride by Tyler Gaff Leone going into the first turn
00:18:26to tuck in instead of going four wide, he might have been right up there at the finish
00:18:31with the winner.
00:18:32So a heck of a prep race.
00:18:33Well, let's switch gears now.
00:18:34We're going to talk to Brad Cox in a little bit.
00:18:36Why don't we save Tarifa for the Brad Cox conversation?
00:18:39She's the winner of the Fairgrounds Oaks.
00:18:41And let's head over to Turfway Park where the Jeff Ruby stakes was on the card for three-year-olds
00:18:48on the synthetic surface.
00:18:50Mixed bag here.
00:18:51We got a pretty good horse by the name of Endlessly.
00:18:53It's the second straight win.
00:18:54Second straight over synthetic surfaces trained by Michael McCarthy.
00:18:58He came out the next day and said, I am not going in the Kentucky Derby.
00:19:03I'm going to run instead in the American Turf during Derby Week at Churchill Downs.
00:19:08McCarthy's a smart trainer.
00:19:09To me, that looks like a smart move.
00:19:10I mean, that you do really want to throw this horse into the Kentucky Derby to make his
00:19:15dirt debut has never run on the dirt.
00:19:18That would seem to be an impossible situation.
00:19:21And you know, there's other big races out there.
00:19:23The American Turf is a big race.
00:19:25He could have a very good year with air, but sometimes, T.D., it's refreshing to see somebody
00:19:31who actually doesn't have Derby fever.
00:19:33Yeah, the horse will be going on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs, just not
00:19:37in the Kentucky Derby.
00:19:39And I think that's an admirable call.
00:19:41In some ways, it's a gutsy call not to kind of get caught up in the moment.
00:19:46One trip note out of that race, a horse who endlessly might face on the turf at some point
00:19:52down the road.
00:19:53I caught a nice trip on Noted in that race.
00:19:56That was his first time racing on a synthetic surface.
00:19:58They were trying to get him some Derby points and see if he could become a Derby candidate.
00:20:03He was close up on the inside, a little closer than usual, ran into a wall of traffic off
00:20:07the turn.
00:20:09He was locked and blocked and bounced around there a little bit.
00:20:12And then when Luis Saez knew he didn't have any chance of winning, he just eased up on
00:20:16the horse.
00:20:17And it did not get charted.
00:20:18That trouble did not appear on the chart.
00:20:20So I think Noted is going to go back on the turf and he might hook up with Endlessly at
00:20:23some point in the future.
00:20:25I asked Michael McCarthy, the trainer of Endlessly, the day before the race.
00:20:29So looking at the race on paper, who do you worry about the most?
00:20:34Who are you most concerned about?
00:20:36And he said, I'm not concerned about any of them.
00:20:38He said, I hate to talk like that, but he said, I'll be shocked if Endlessly doesn't
00:20:44win this race.
00:20:46And the next question obviously was, if he does win and he wins impressively, the owners
00:20:51John and Jerry Ammerman have never had a horse in the Kentucky Derby.
00:20:55How difficult will it be to talk them out of trying the Derby?
00:21:00And he said, so far, so good.
00:21:02They seem to be very reasonable about the horse and about his pedigree and his running
00:21:07style and the fact that he looks like he's better on turf and maybe synthetic.
00:21:13Apparently, that seems to be what the plan is right now, to run with the American turf
00:21:20on Derby Day instead of the Kentucky Derby itself.
00:21:23The runner-up, Wes Saratoga, good story, 36 to 1.
00:21:26Larry Demaret, small-time trainer, owner Harry Verucci, by far the best horse he's
00:21:32ever had.
00:21:32It looks like they're gonna persevere and go on to the Kentucky Derby.
00:21:35Sees the gray, finished third, doesn't have enough points yet, but it's Wayne Lucas and
00:21:42you've got the Lexington Stakes, so who knows?
00:21:45You may see Sees the Gray get one more opportunity to rack up some Derby points, right?
00:21:52The Bourbonette Oaks was won by Everland and TD had a good story following up on the Bourbonette
00:21:58Oaks that this horse was claimed for $30,000 on December 30th and look what we have four
00:22:05and a half months later, four months later, this horse wins a stakes race.
00:22:09Again, a nice enough horse, do I think this horse will win the Kentucky Oaks?
00:22:13No, but they've earned their way in there and TD, tell us a little bit more about the
00:22:16story of Eric Foster and claiming this horse for $30,000.
00:22:20Everland, certainly a nice story, a $30,000 claimer not only, but she almost got knocked
00:22:25down the day that she was claimed on December 30th by Eric Foster, who is the leading trainer
00:22:30at Turfway in terms of wins.
00:22:33He's the second leading trainer of the Turfway meet in terms of earnings, only behind the
00:22:37powerhouse outfit of Brad Cox.
00:22:39She subsequently won a starter allowance race.
00:22:42She ran fourth in a $150,000 stakes race and on Saturday, she got hooked four wide around
00:22:48the clubhouse turn.
00:22:49She was starting to motor on the far turn and then she briefly ran up on the heels of
00:22:53her tiring stablemate who had set the pace and then she scooted up the rail and won like
00:22:57a good thing and unlike endlessly, the connections of Everland, they do have fever for the first
00:23:03weekend in May because they are taking their points that they earned in the Bourbonette
00:23:07and they're going to the Oaks, even though Everland has not raced on the dirt.
00:23:12One of our key sponsors here at the TD and Riders Room is the PHBA, the Thoroughbred
00:23:16Horse Breeders Association.
00:23:18We just told you about the sensational Overcharge, the fastest horse of the week.
00:23:21How about the second fastest horse of the week?
00:23:23That would be Pennsylvania bred, I'm Very Busy, the Chad Brown trained Pegasus World
00:23:29Cup turf runner-up who found enough time in his busy schedule to storm down the stretch
00:23:34to win the Mervin Muniz at the fairgrounds by three and three quarters lengths for a
00:23:38buyer speed figure of 103.
00:23:39That ties du jour for the second fastest buyer among two-turn turf horses so far this year.
00:23:45I'm Very Busy bred in the Keystone State by Glenn Brock and Martha Tuthaker.
00:23:49Those PA breds just keep on winning and here's a new Pennsylvania bred on the ground.
00:23:54Zoe Cadman thinks all foals are cute, but this one certainly fits the bill.
00:23:58From a harmless little guy as a half brother to Breeders' Cup turf sprint winner, Caravelle.
00:24:03He's by Justify out of the mare ZZ Zoom Zoom, owned by Elizabeth Merriman and born on March
00:24:09the 3rd.
00:24:10Isn't he cute?
00:24:12For more information on breeding your very own Pennsylvania bred, visit www.pabred.com.
00:24:20The state of Pennsylvania has the best breeders program in the entire United States.
00:24:25When you buy a yearling, it's a little bit like buying a lottery ticket, and we are trying
00:24:28to provide the lottery ticket that the likelihood is to hit the jackpot.
00:24:33Angel of Empire wins the Arkansas Derby and wins it clear.
00:24:36Uncle Heavy late, it's a photo finish!
00:24:41Pennsylvania and the PHBA have the best state-fed program in the country bar none.
00:24:46The winner, Uncle Heavy.
00:24:47He's a three-year-old bred in Pennsylvania.
00:24:50So it's time for the Coolmore Stallion of the Week, and this week that is American Pharaoh.
00:24:54American Pharaoh was the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.
00:24:57He was the 2015 Horse of the Year and 2014 Eclipse Champion Juvenile.
00:25:03Sire of 45 stakes winners, his 2023 yearling sold for up to $1.2 million.
00:25:10And he is on a roll in the month of March alone.
00:25:13Listen to this.
00:25:14Wasakuso, I hope I'm pronouncing that somewhat right, won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa
00:25:18Bay Downs.
00:25:19Forever Super won the Turf Classic stakes at Tampa Bay.
00:25:22Kahila Princess won the Cicada at Aqueduct for Brad Cox and will target the Grade 3 Gazelle
00:25:26stakes next.
00:25:27Sweet Rebecca was named a TDN Rising Star on debut and has since been purchased privately
00:25:32by John Stewart's Resolute Racing, who also signed for a $525,000 American Pharaoh filly
00:25:39at OBS March.
00:25:40Riff Rocket won the second career Grade 1 in Australia on Saturday when taking the Rose
00:25:45Hill Guinness.
00:25:46And in the race you're watching here, Breeders' Cup Juvenile fillies runner-up Jody's Pride
00:25:51won the Buescher stakes and is now ranked number one on the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard.
00:25:55Randy, I feel that American Pharaoh is kind of overlooked as a sire, despite all his accomplishments
00:26:00we just mentioned.
00:26:01Why do you think that is?
00:26:03Well, he's becoming increasingly overlooked.
00:26:05Obviously, when he first retires, the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years, there was
00:26:09Pharaoh mania.
00:26:10There was all sorts of anticipation to see his first foals.
00:26:14And it was always going to be difficult to sustain that level of Pharaoh mania, very
00:26:19similar to Secretariat when he retired.
00:26:21And now some other super stallions have come into the mix.
00:26:24Most notably, Coolmore's other Triple Crown stallion, Justifies.
00:26:29Even within his own barn right now, American Pharaoh is being sort of out-hyped, so to
00:26:34speak.
00:26:35But the fact remains that American Pharaoh is an outstanding stallion who produces athletic
00:26:39foals with good minds like Justify.
00:26:42They can succeed on dirt or grass.
00:26:45And the real positive, I think, for breeders in all of this, Bill, is that they can now
00:26:48tap into a Triple Crown winner at what has become a very reasonable price.
00:26:53Yeah, and that price is $50,000.
00:26:56American Pharaoh stands at Coolmore for the aforementioned $50,000.
00:27:00And congratulations to the American Pharaoh team for a real, real good run there.
00:27:06The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by The Green Group, a tax accounting advisory
00:27:10firm specializing in the thoroughbred industry and is designed to save you taxes.
00:27:17And we welcome in now The Green Group guest of the week.
00:27:19Not only is he Brad Cox, the future Hall of Famer, guys loaded with everything, he's got
00:27:24to be the hottest trainer in the country right now.
00:27:27What a weekend Brad Cox had.
00:27:29He won the Fairgrounds Oaks, Louisiana Derby, the Hot Spring Stakes, and the Essex all over
00:27:33the weekend.
00:27:34Biggest wins, of course, were in the Fairgrounds Oaks with Tarifa and the Louisiana Derby with
00:27:38Catching Freedom.
00:27:39And Brad, I've asked you this question before, but now with Catching Freedom and Timberlake,
00:27:45at the very least, you've got two very strong candidates for this year's Kentucky Derby.
00:27:49Brad, officially you have won a Kentucky Derby with Mandaloon after the DQ of Medina Spirit.
00:27:54But does it feel like you've won a Derby?
00:27:57Are you going to go into Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of May and say,
00:28:00I'm going to win this one and I'm going to do it the easy way this time?
00:28:04There's no easy way.
00:28:05I know that.
00:28:06No, it doesn't feel like we won the Derby at all.
00:28:08I've always said the Derby's a race, you know, it's not the purse.
00:28:12We won the British Cup Classic.
00:28:14It's the thrill of victory.
00:28:15That's what you're after with the Derby.
00:28:17It's a very hard race to get to.
00:28:19It's like no other in America.
00:28:20It's the only race where there are 20 horses and it's, you know, it's tough to just get
00:28:24to, let alone win.
00:28:26So, no, I don't feel like we've won a Derby and looking forward to Derby 150 for sure.
00:28:33So I was just joking before you joined us here that you know a guy's going good when
00:28:37you've got to make notes of all his three-year-olds to make sure that you don't skip over any
00:28:42of them.
00:28:44The most obvious one, Catching Freedom.
00:28:46Let's talk about him for a second, right?
00:28:47Here's a horse going into the Louisiana Derby that had a reputation as maybe a bit of an
00:28:54overachiever who wouldn't wow anybody in the mornings, who would sometimes act green and
00:29:00a little squirrely in the afternoons, lugging in and things like that.
00:29:04And yet, what we saw in the Louisiana Derby was anything but.
00:29:08It was a new and improved Catching Freedom.
00:29:11What do you suppose went into that?
00:29:14I guess just maturity.
00:29:15His last two works before the Louisiana Derby were really good.
00:29:18They were by far the best works he'd ever had.
00:29:20So, I mean, he was kind of touting himself that he could be moving forward.
00:29:26You really never know with these horses.
00:29:28You know, he ran well in the Risen Star and his works prior to the Risen Star were, you
00:29:33know, pretty average.
00:29:36So you never know when one starts actually working better when they hadn't been.
00:29:40Sometimes it'll go the wrong way on you.
00:29:42But, you know, I think given the setup of the race and everything, I thought it was
00:29:47a huge effort.
00:29:47I mean, he really started his run at the half mile pole and was able to finish it off and
00:29:53finish up well and looked like a mile and a quarter is obviously not going to be an
00:29:56issue for him.
00:29:58Did the last to first running style tell you anything?
00:30:01Did it surprise you?
00:30:02Yeah, yeah.
00:30:02Well, yeah, yes.
00:30:04You know, I didn't really think they were going that quick.
00:30:07It did surprise me a little bit.
00:30:09It's not where we wanted to be.
00:30:10We'll definitely take it, but it's not where we wanted to be.
00:30:14Flavian said when Todd's horse to the inside of him broke through the gate, he lunged forward
00:30:18as well and kind of hit the gate as well.
00:30:21He's not a real big horse, so he didn't pop it open.
00:30:24But he said when he rocked back, he said when they popped him, he jumped well, but he said
00:30:27it just wasn't that quick away from there.
00:30:30And he thinks that may have a little bit of something to do with why he didn't come
00:30:32out as well as he did.
00:30:33Brad, what is going to be the game plan for the next five weeks with Catching Freedom?
00:30:37Maybe give us a little thumbnail sketch of his physical and mental makeup and what he
00:30:42needs to do to get ready for the first Saturday in May.
00:30:45Well, I'm thinking right now I probably have four works.
00:30:48First one, not this weekend, but the following week, 14 days out, something like that.
00:30:52You know, we'll obviously watch the weather.
00:30:53We can get a lot of wet weather the month of April at Churchill and the Kentucky area.
00:30:58But, you know, I think just keep him on every seven day schedule, four works prior to the
00:31:05Derby.
00:31:06And, you know, he shows up and runs.
00:31:10He's a horse that carries good flesh.
00:31:12He's not a big horse.
00:31:13He's medium sized.
00:31:14He's a good mover, puts a good bit into his gallops.
00:31:17His works, like I said, have just been average.
00:31:18And, you know, we're looking to his first work back will be pretty basic work, may even
00:31:23take him by himself and not looking to do much with him.
00:31:26But then, you know, the three leading up, we'll ask him for a little bit more.
00:31:29And hopefully, you know, we can see a little bit what we saw
00:31:33of him in the morning, the two works prior to the Louisiana Derby.
00:31:38So, Brad, let's switch gears and talk about some of your three-year-old fillies.
00:31:41And if the race will run tomorrow, the Kentucky Oaks, I guess Tarifa would be the favorite.
00:31:46But the horse that might knock her out of that position is also trained by Ewan Pell,
00:31:51who's going to go in the central blank Ashland and has a big following right now.
00:31:56First of all, tell us more about Ewan Pell.
00:31:58And why did she get off to a late start in her career?
00:32:00And how good is she?
00:32:01Well, she came in, she trained along, she acted like she's had some ability.
00:32:07She had some shin issues there last fall, got her back going,
00:32:13trained her at Churchill, sent her down to the fairgrounds.
00:32:17She won New Year's Day.
00:32:18And I think she's very good.
00:32:19She's got a great mind.
00:32:20She doesn't over-train.
00:32:21She's not super, super aggressive, does whatever you ask of her.
00:32:25Obviously, she took that step forward and stretched out there at Oaklawn.
00:32:29I did miss a little bit of time with her between her maiden win and
00:32:35her maiden win in the allowance win at Oaklawn.
00:32:37She had a minor setback.
00:32:38She recovered fine.
00:32:39And off to the Ashland, she just made it to Churchill.
00:32:43She'll have one work here at Churchill.
00:32:44And then looking forward to running her in the Ashland.
00:32:48Brad, I've noticed, I mean, as good as you are with three-year-old colts,
00:32:51and then really you're good in every division,
00:32:54but it seems like year in and year out,
00:32:55you are really loaded with three-year-old fillies going back to Monomoy girl.
00:32:59And again, like you might have the first two choices
00:33:02if things break your way in the Kentucky Oaks.
00:33:04Is there a reason why, maybe you don't agree with me,
00:33:06but is there a reason why you are good with other horses
00:33:10and super good with young fillies?
00:33:13I think it's just probably training for clients like,
00:33:20or owners like Juddmont and Goodoff.
00:33:22And that obviously, I mean, world-class breeding operations.
00:33:26And they give us an opportunity with some good fillies.
00:33:29And that's probably the biggest thing to do with it.
00:33:32And obviously great help.
00:33:33So that's the two things you're going to have for sure.
00:33:37You know, as good as Tarifa looked in winning the Rachel Alexandra,
00:33:43before Saturday, there was really no doubt in my mind
00:33:46that Impel was better than Tarifa.
00:33:48And now watching the way Tarifa ran in the Fairgrounds Oaks,
00:33:53I'm not so sure.
00:33:54And I tell people all the time that trainers,
00:33:57the people who are the closest to these horses,
00:33:59also learn things a lot,
00:34:01especially with young and improving three-year-olds as they go.
00:34:05Is that pretty accurate?
00:34:05Yeah, it's no doubt.
00:34:06And you know, as much as we put into their day-to-day training
00:34:09and their weekend works and stuff,
00:34:11at the end of the day, what means more than anything
00:34:13is the races in the afternoon.
00:34:15We all form opinions.
00:34:17But at the end of the day, you're going to learn more from them
00:34:21when you lead them over in the afternoon,
00:34:22because ultimately that's where they shine or they don't.
00:34:26And Tarifa has been very, very good at the Fairgrounds this winter
00:34:29and received some figures that definitely...
00:34:33You know, just looking back last year with Good Off,
00:34:35and we had the favorite for the Oaks with Wet Paint.
00:34:38And they obviously won the Oaks with pretty mischievous.
00:34:41You know, this filly's numbers are much higher
00:34:46than those two fillies leading up to the Kentucky Oaks.
00:34:48So she's very good.
00:34:51She's aggressive.
00:34:51She likes to train.
00:34:52She likes her job.
00:34:53But she showed the other day with getting
00:34:56or having a little bit of a rough run into the first turn
00:34:58and being a touch aggressive, turning up the backside.
00:35:00She's still, you know, she just doesn't...
00:35:02You know, she doesn't give in.
00:35:04She stays on.
00:35:05And that's something that you can't teach.
00:35:09They're just born with it.
00:35:11She's a competitor, bottom line.
00:35:14If she had lost that stretch drive, would there have been a foul claim?
00:35:19I don't think so.
00:35:19I didn't see a hole.
00:35:20I know.
00:35:21I'd have been a little disappointed.
00:35:22But overall, I mean, she, you know...
00:35:25I know a lot of people had jumped on another filly in the race.
00:35:28But when you look back at the Rachel,
00:35:29I mean, she really started separating herself from those fillies.
00:35:32And I know it was in the mud and everything,
00:35:34but I thought she stamped herself as the best filly down there this winter.
00:35:38She definitely showed that on Saturday.
00:35:40Fred, flipping the script back to the Colts.
00:35:42On Saturday, you've got Timberlake,
00:35:44who'll start as the second favorite in the Arkansas Derby.
00:35:48This is a Colt who, on paper, has plateaued.
00:35:52If you go by the buyer speed figures,
00:35:54he's run 93s in three consecutive races over almost a six-month span.
00:35:59But that doesn't tell the whole picture.
00:36:01I know he, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile,
00:36:04he was a bit unsettled into the clubhouse turn,
00:36:06and it really seemed to knock him off his ball game for the entire race.
00:36:10You gave him some time off.
00:36:11He came back in the Rebel, and he tried to rate again.
00:36:13But a little bit of a different story this time.
00:36:15Tell us about how he's progressing, please.
00:36:18That's right. Yeah, he relaxed well.
00:36:19Really liked what we saw from him there in Oakland,
00:36:21going into the first turn and the trip he set.
00:36:25And, you know, I didn't feel like we had to
00:36:27screws really tight on him leading up to the Rebel.
00:36:30I was, a couple weeks before the Rebel,
00:36:32I was a little concerned that he would be ready to run.
00:36:36But, you know, he stepped up.
00:36:37He showed that, you know, he's a good Colt.
00:36:39And could handle the two turns in the mile and a sixteenth,
00:36:41and we're hoping a mile and an eighth, and even a mile and a quarter.
00:36:45But we think, you know, he's an unbelievable physical.
00:36:49I mean, he is a very, very good looking horse.
00:36:53And he's always been good.
00:36:54I mean, he stamped himself from the first time
00:36:55he breezed at Keeneland in the spring, that he was a good Colt.
00:36:58And, you know, he's always showed up and run.
00:37:00Like you said, maybe the Breeders' Cup,
00:37:01a little bit of a rough run to the first turn.
00:37:04Maybe he was a little keyed up, but he's learning.
00:37:06He's mellowed out.
00:37:07His works have gotten better in regards to settling the first part in him.
00:37:11And I do think he's definitely tighter and, you know, ready to go Saturday,
00:37:17as opposed to the condition we had him in leading up to the Rebel.
00:37:22Maybe pretty soon you'll get to meet Justin Timberlake.
00:37:27Who knows?
00:37:28We'll find out about that.
00:37:30Great to have a celebrity at the Derby to watch this namesake.
00:37:33Back to Timberlake, Brad.
00:37:36You've been making good use of Flavian Pratt.
00:37:38He rides both your top three-year-olds, Timberlake and Catching Freedom.
00:37:43Has he committed or have you committed him to one horse or the other?
00:37:47Or are you just going to wait and see how it plays out between now and, you know, entry time?
00:37:51Yeah, well, we'll just wait.
00:37:52I mean, I'm hoping to have some answers before entry time.
00:37:55But yeah, we'll obviously get through this Arkansas Derby first.
00:37:58And right now he has to call with a Colt Encino
00:38:03in the—that we're pointing for the Bluegrass as well.
00:38:06So, you know, it all sorts itself out over the next few weeks.
00:38:11So we're kind of glossing over a third three-year-old that you have
00:38:15that maybe is just a little bit more under the radar,
00:38:18but who was a really good second in the Gotham behind Deterministic.
00:38:21And that would be the son of Justify, just a touch.
00:38:25What do you think about him?
00:38:27And where are we likely to see him next?
00:38:29He just shipped from Belmont back down to Keeneland.
00:38:32He breezed there yesterday morning and had a really, really good move.
00:38:35He's a good Colt.
00:38:37You know, like you said, he's lightly raced, only two starts.
00:38:40Didn't make his debut, I don't think, until late January.
00:38:43And then, you know, we asked him, you know, flew him up to New York.
00:38:46He was a really good second wide trip.
00:38:48Big figures.
00:38:49You know, he's—I think he's very, very good.
00:38:54We'll see.
00:38:55Once again, he's going to the—we're planning on the Bluegrass right now.
00:38:58And, you know, he's got a—he's a big horse.
00:39:02Covers a lot of ground, works, very, very flashy workhorse.
00:39:06So, I mean, he's definitely a horse we're excited about.
00:39:08And, you know, he's going to have to accomplish a lot in a little short window.
00:39:13But we're happy with what we've seen from him.
00:39:15We do think he's a very good Colt.
00:39:17And another one on the list is Nash.
00:39:19He just won the Hutt Springs Stakes on Saturday by open lengths.
00:39:22And more of a general question about Nash that I'll ask you to tie in more than one way.
00:39:29But over the past couple of years, the Kentucky Derby prep schedule has evolved,
00:39:35or some might say devolved, to where there's no longer any races outside of four weeks from the
00:39:40Derby.
00:39:41All the major points races stop now on the—or they end now on the first Saturday in April.
00:39:46And I look at a horse like Nash on paper and I say, well,
00:39:50he certainly had some Derby aspirations for him.
00:39:52He broke his maiden by more than 10 lengths back in the fall.
00:39:55He had three races at a mile and a 16th where he was a beaten favorite.
00:39:59And now he's kind of sparked to life again, maybe just cycled into his natural form.
00:40:03But with specific reference to Nash and more generally to that question,
00:40:07you know, would he show up in another race between now and Derby Day that could get him
00:40:12some points?
00:40:12Or would you prefer to see a race like three weeks out, like the—like
00:40:16Oaklawn used to have the Arkansas Derby?
00:40:18Well, one race we do have is the Lexington.
00:40:22I think that's the three-week race where you can pick up some points.
00:40:25I think we're going to stick to one turn.
00:40:28I know he won a two-turn mile race the other day, but I think we're going to stick to one
00:40:30turn around him.
00:40:31We're looking at the Pat Day miles as our next goal with him.
00:40:35I think we've got enough feedback and seen enough from him of the afternoons
00:40:40to feel like that he really doesn't want to go much further than a mile.
00:40:45You know, he's another one that's a very good workhorse, gets you excited in the afternoon,
00:40:49gets you excited in the mornings.
00:40:51And look, he's never run a bad race.
00:40:54Just, you know, really wasn't giving us really what we thought we were going to see.
00:40:58So, you know, I don't really think there's any sense in trying to stretch him back out.
00:41:03I think we've seen enough of that, you know, December, January, February, and now we got
00:41:07him back on the winning track at the two-turn mile distance.
00:41:10And I think the one-turn mile in the Pat Day mile might be something we're going to look
00:41:15at.
00:41:15He's another horse that, you know, we've run him fairly often.
00:41:18I mean, he raced in October, November, December, January, February, and March.
00:41:25So, I mean, you know, he's got several runs underneath of him, and I don't feel like,
00:41:29you know, we need to be running back in two, three weeks and just trying to make the Kentucky
00:41:34Derby.
00:41:34I mean, I always say every year there's a Derby winner and there's 19 Derby horses,
00:41:38and I don't know if he's a horse that really wants a mile and a quarter.
00:41:42I think, you know, for his sake and his long-term career, you know, probably be better to give
00:41:49him a little bit more time between now and his next start.
00:41:53Brad, let's really switch gears here and take you to Dubai.
00:41:57Saudi Crown going to run in the Dolphin Mile.
00:41:59Very talented horse.
00:42:01Give us the latest on him and your expectations for what you hope to accomplish with him in
00:42:05Dubai.
00:42:06Well, I expect him to win.
00:42:07I mean, I really do.
00:42:08He ran a great race there in Riyadh.
00:42:13It was a very exciting race, and, you know, it's always a question mark when you're running
00:42:18back in five weeks off a big run like that, but, you know, he's really done well.
00:42:22My son Blake's there with him.
00:42:23You know, I get, obviously, the videos every day of how he's doing, and he looks amazing.
00:42:27He looks like he's put on weight.
00:42:29He's moving well, and I don't see any reason why he wouldn't step up.
00:42:33And if he can run a similar race, I think he's, you know, it should be good enough.
00:42:38We'll see.
00:42:39Are you now kind of wishing you'd sent first mission to the Dubai World Cup instead of
00:42:44the Essex the way you ran?
00:42:45Yeah, you know, he was, you never really know, like, we obviously used the excuse of him
00:42:51not liking the track at Gulfstream, and I think it was a legit excuse.
00:42:55He never at any point in the race felt comfortable to me.
00:42:57He was not traveling forward.
00:42:59Luis said he didn't handle the track.
00:43:01It was, I think it's pretty obvious to see, but, you know, you never really know.
00:43:05We brought him back from Gulfstream.
00:43:06We trained him there at the fairgrounds.
00:43:08I thought he was a little flat the first week or two we were training him, and he started
00:43:12coming along and over to like the last, let's say, three weeks prior to the Essex.
00:43:15He really turned it on and showed that he was, you know, showing signs of himself leading
00:43:21up to the Pegasus because I expect him to win the Pegasus.
00:43:23I loved him.
00:43:24I loved him that day.
00:43:25Just didn't take to the surface.
00:43:27You know, it was good to see him get his feet back underneath of him, and, you know, look,
00:43:31I mean, we'll see how this year goes, but maybe he'll get an opportunity to travel overseas
00:43:35next year.
00:43:35Brad, maybe to wrap it up here with a look ahead to the future.
00:43:38I know it's very early in the season, but trainers are always planning for the near
00:43:44term future, at least, and at what point are you going to have your two-year-old cycling
00:43:48into the stable, and do you have any that you're particularly looking forward to seeing?
00:43:54Two-year-olds are already, we had some come in in February, but we don't get in too big
00:43:59a hurry with them.
00:44:00We've got some fillies that we're hoping to get started.
00:44:02I'm not certain they would make Keeneland.
00:44:04If not Keeneland, maybe the first part of Churchill, but, you know, we kind of let them
00:44:08tell us.
00:44:09I really, really have a hard time getting a line on them this early, especially with
00:44:17a lot of the pedigrees.
00:44:17We get more two-turn middle distance horses and stuff, but, you know, I'm hoping to have
00:44:22some runners at Churchill, at least Churchill in the spring, two-year-olds anyway.
00:44:26Well, Brad Cox, thank you so much for joining us here on the TDN Writer's Room podcast.
00:44:31Congratulations on a just terrific weekend last week with your four stakes winners.
00:44:36Keep up the good work, and we'll see you in the winner's circle.
00:44:38Thanks, Bill.
00:44:38Talk to you guys soon.
00:44:41As the Green Group Guest of the Week, Brad Cox will receive a free one-hour tax consultation
00:44:46with the Green Group.
00:44:47More information on how the Green Group can save you taxes, visit www.greenco.com.
00:44:53We'll be right back after this message from the Green Group.
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00:45:58With some of the fullest fields in the country and quality racing year-round, there's never
00:46:04been a better time to reap the rewards of breeding and racing in Kentucky.
00:46:09Purse money in Kentucky is at an all-time high, as is average purse per race, outpacing
00:46:15California, Florida, and New York.
00:46:19Kentucky breads.
00:46:20Breed them.
00:46:21Raise them.
00:46:23Race them.
00:46:24We all win.
00:46:29Okay, so last weekend, we had Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom, Jeff Ruby winner
00:46:34Endlessly, Fairgrounds Oaks winner Tarifa, Bourbonnette Oaks winner Everland.
00:46:38They all won important Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks prep races.
00:46:41They're all high up on the leaderboards and the point standings.
00:46:45They also have one other important thing in common.
00:46:47To absolutely no one's surprise, all four bred in the Commonwealth of Kentucky.
00:46:54You can find your next Kentucky bread at the OBS April Sale.
00:46:59Breed them.
00:46:59Buy them.
00:47:00Race them.
00:47:01We all win.
00:47:03Well, a huge weekend of racing, especially when it comes to the Kentucky Derby preps.
00:47:07Two of the biggest and most productive prep races out there, the Florida Derby at Gulfstream
00:47:11Park, the Arkansas Derby at Oakland, will be run this Saturday afternoon.
00:47:17Randy, what's the NBC coverage of these races this weekend?
00:47:20NBC coverage, Bill, is on CNBC, the cable network, and it will be from 6 to 7 p.m.
00:47:28Eastern.
00:47:29We'll have coverage of the Florida Derby, the Gulfstream Park Oaks, and we'll also take
00:47:36a look back at that morning's UAE Derby and Dubai World Cup.
00:47:41Well, it's going to be a huge week of racing, particularly when it comes to two races,
00:47:44Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby, two of the most important prep races for the Kentucky
00:47:49Derby.
00:47:50And, you know, the big boys are coming out to play this weekend.
00:47:53There's no doubt about that.
00:47:54Let's start with the Florida Derby, presented as the Curlin Florida Derby.
00:47:58I want to give a shout out to the folks at Stan Curlin.
00:48:02Randy, to me, this race is a jumble and a mess because I don't know what to do with
00:48:08fierceness.
00:48:10You know, one day he's a superstar.
00:48:11The next day he gets to be 20 lengths in the champagne.
00:48:14Then he's a superstar in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
00:48:16And then, you know, I know they kind of came up with some excuses for his Holy Bowl, but
00:48:21that wasn't that was not the fierceness that we saw in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by no
00:48:26means.
00:48:27It was not a particularly good race.
00:48:28And he drew the 10 post.
00:48:30So I've just given you a lot of reasons to not bet on him or not pick him.
00:48:35But having said that, would I be surprised if he won by five or six lengths?
00:48:39Not in the least.
00:48:40So from a gambling or picking standpoint, I don't know what to do.
00:48:44I don't think I will pick him because of all the things that I brought up about him, all
00:48:48the problems.
00:48:49But I might go with Hades in here for our friend John Green, just on the fact that the
00:48:54course has done nothing wrong.
00:48:56Three for three, won the Holy Bowl, draws the two post.
00:48:59We'll see what happens there.
00:48:59But Manny, what do you make of fierceness?
00:49:03I don't know what to make of fierceness.
00:49:05I don't think Mike Rapoli knows what to make of fierceness.
00:49:07I don't think Todd Pletcher knows what to make of fierceness.
00:49:09And they were saying the same thing before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, by the way, because
00:49:13the horse looks so good when he broke his maiden.
00:49:15And then he looked so bad when he ran in the champagne.
00:49:19You know, they flat out said, you know, most owners, trainers wouldn't even send the horse
00:49:25to Santa Anita for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile off a race like the champagne.
00:49:29But he's trained so exceptionally well that we feel like we have to because he trains
00:49:36like, you know, like an absolute standout, like a champion.
00:49:41And lo and behold, he ran a gigantic race in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
00:49:45And now we find ourselves right back in that situation again.
00:49:49He did have some excuses in the Holy Bowl, legitimate excuses.
00:49:53But I agree.
00:49:55He still didn't look like the same fierceness as we saw in the Breeders' Cup.
00:49:59And yet coming out of that race, he has continued to train sensationally at Palm Beach Downs.
00:50:08So what do you do, right?
00:50:10I mean, I still put him number one in my derby rankings only because I feel that if all of
00:50:17these three-year-olds run their best races on any given day, fierceness wins.
00:50:21I think he showed us that in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
00:50:24TD mentioned earlier, there are not a lot of real speed horses in this year's Kentucky
00:50:28Derby, which would play to fierceness' advantage because he's a horse that likes to be right
00:50:33up in the early mix.
00:50:35You know, I can see him right outside of Track Phantom in the derby if it shapes up that
00:50:39way.
00:50:41So, yeah, I think he's the horse to beat.
00:50:43Would I want to take a short price on him given what he did in the Holy Bowl?
00:50:47No.
00:50:48And if I was going to bet against him in the Florida Derby, I probably would go more toward
00:50:55Conquest Warrior than Hades because I think if fierceness doesn't win the Florida Derby,
00:51:02it's probably unlikely he's going to have the same sort of problems at the start.
00:51:06So if he doesn't win the Florida Derby, I think he'll at least show his speed, which
00:51:11will be to the disadvantage of Hades, who's a front-running type.
00:51:15And I think it could play into the hands there of Conquest Warrior.
00:51:19But it's a confusing race because of fierceness.
00:51:21I agree.
00:51:22And we talk about fierceness being hung out to dry in post-10, which is not an advantageous
00:51:29draw going 9 for a longs at Gulfstream.
00:51:31Neither is post-9 for Conquest Warrior.
00:51:33I believe the stat that Mike Welsh quoted in Daily Racing Forum was it's 2 for 105 over
00:51:39the last 15 years since Gulfstream reconfigured their main track.
00:51:43But for Conquest Warrior, I don't think it's as much of an issue because he's not a speed
00:51:48horse.
00:51:48He's not going to have to be flying out of the gate and trying to obtain good early
00:51:53position before the first turn.
00:51:55He can sit a mid-pack trip, and we've seen him do that in his last two races at Gulfstream,
00:52:01although he's encountered so much trip trouble in his maiden win that I start to wonder if
00:52:07he's a horse who creates his own trouble and then has to extricate himself from it.
00:52:11Last time out in an allowance race, he was 1-5 against five other horses who are not
00:52:16triple crown caliber.
00:52:18And Jose Ortiz had him backing off of the heels of rivals 7-8s out.
00:52:24A furlong later, he re-engaged him and put him up into the race.
00:52:27He sliced him inside.
00:52:28He came outside.
00:52:29You can get away with that in a short field against those caliber of horses when you're
00:52:331-5.
00:52:34We'll see what he does on Saturday, but at the very least, I think he's going to have
00:52:38a couple of targets in the form of Hades and Fierceness.
00:52:42And hey, he's 2-for-2 at Gulfstream.
00:52:44He's already won at nine furlongs, and he is sure to get that speed set up.
00:52:48So I think there are some positives for Concourse Warrior.
00:52:51I will say this.
00:52:52If I'm Todd Pletcher, I tell John Velasquez, go.
00:52:57Don't mess around.
00:52:58Go.
00:52:59Don't worry about Hades.
00:53:01Go.
00:53:01He's the best horse in the race on paper.
00:53:04He's the best horse in the race, I think, if he gets a decent start out of the gate.
00:53:07He's got that outside draw, and I don't think they need to mess around.
00:53:11And I think they need to just take it to the competition and may the best horse win.
00:53:14That's what I would do.
00:53:15I'll take it one further, Randy.
00:53:17If I were Todd Pletcher, I'd scratch.
00:53:19That is an awful post position.
00:53:22Why not just scratch and come back next week in the bluegrass?
00:53:26You know, I mean, he can run a great race, but he hung six wide on the first turn and
00:53:33run third.
00:53:34I've never liked this mile and eighth races at Gulfstream.
00:53:39They've made the track different.
00:53:41On a mile track, this doesn't make any difference.
00:53:43But that's what I would do because I cannot pick a horse from the ten post.
00:53:47And Todd is concerned about that because he calls it a scrum into the first turn, these
00:53:53races, because there's such a short run to the turn.
00:53:55Everybody wants to go to get position, and that's what he fears the most, that fierceness
00:54:00won't get a super quick break out of the gate and he'll get hung wide.
00:54:03Randy, the Gulfstream Park Oaks is a big race, of course, a prep for the Kentucky Oaks.
00:54:08What about that race drew your interest?
00:54:10Well, there's a horse that no one has been talking about.
00:54:13And right now, in the way I see the Kentucky Oaks field shaping up, I think it comes down
00:54:20to three horses.
00:54:20We've already talked to Brad Cox about Tarifa and Impel, and my third horse would be Ways
00:54:25and Means, trained by Chad Brown, who is in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, who was a sensational
00:54:30two year old who got hurt.
00:54:32She's training very well.
00:54:33I think she'll be a pretty solid favorite in the Gulfstream Oaks, and I'll be surprised
00:54:39if she loses.
00:54:39And I think she'll be one of the favorites going forward for the Kentucky Oaks.
00:54:43Yeah, she certainly does look like she has the credentials.
00:54:46OK, so let's head to Arkansas for the Arkansas Derby, $1.5 million race.
00:54:52As usual, this race came up tough.
00:54:54We talked to Brad Cox about Timberlake, but on paper, I think the horse that really catches
00:55:01my attention is Mystic Dan, Randy, because of that huge figure last time out.
00:55:06Now, was it a little bit fluky because it happened in the mud?
00:55:09Will the horse bounce off that?
00:55:11Those are all possibilities.
00:55:13But based on that race, he's just faster than everybody else.
00:55:17He's going to have to regress, or somebody's going to have to really jump up, or else he's
00:55:22going to win this thing.
00:55:23Now, Muth is a terrific horse from Bob Baffert.
00:55:26Timberlake, we talked to with Brad Cox.
00:55:29Put up $1.5 million, you're supposed to get a good field, and they did.
00:55:32But I like Mystic Dan.
00:55:35It's not just the muddy track for Mystic Dan in the last race.
00:55:40I think what horse players are really going to have to wrestle with here is that when
00:55:45Oaklawn Park gets muddy, not every time, but a lot of the times, the way it dries, a fast
00:55:52path develops along the rail.
00:55:54And if you go back and you look at all the races on that day, February the 3rd at Oaklawn,
00:55:59there was definitely a sizable advantage to horses who had the inside path around the
00:56:05track.
00:56:06And Brian Hernandez rode an amazing race in there from post position number nine to get
00:56:11Mystic Dan right over to the rail about halfway around the first turn.
00:56:15And he stayed glued to the rail all the way around the track, getting through inside on
00:56:21the turn, getting through inside down the stretch.
00:56:24Now, he finished like a wild horse.
00:56:26His stride was really, really impressive the last quarter of a mile.
00:56:31It's downhill at Oaklawn a little bit, yeah, but he went like a 24 and change for the final
00:56:36quarter, got that one-on-one buyer.
00:56:38How much of it was Mystic Dan and his improvement?
00:56:42How much of it was the fast path that he was running on along the rail?
00:56:48I think that's the big question people have to ask themselves.
00:56:51And it's not just that gaudy buyer speed figure that he has to live up to.
00:56:55There were other numbers that back up, you know, questions about is it the horse or was
00:57:00it the track?
00:57:00I mean, he finished up a final 16th in that race in 5.93 seconds.
00:57:06There have been 18 races run at a mile and a 16th that gave Derby points for qualifiers
00:57:12so far in 23, 24.
00:57:14That was the fastest by far.
00:57:15So he's going to have to live up to a lot of numerical evidence from his previous race
00:57:20to see if he can repeat again on Saturday.
00:57:23And this weekend's action, of course, also includes the Dubai World Cup and Randy Moss
00:57:27won't know what to do with himself because his two favorite horses are going head-to-head,
00:57:31Señor Buscador and Dharma Sotagaki.
00:57:35Randy, what a dilemma.
00:57:37What are you going to do?
00:57:38What am I going to do?
00:57:39I don't know who I'm going to root for here.
00:57:40I got to root for the American, right?
00:57:43I have to root for Señor Buscador, but look, I mean, Dharma Sotagaki is in with a big shot
00:57:49as well.
00:57:49It's going to be a very, very fun race to watch and the Americans are fairly well represented,
00:57:55maybe not as much as in past years, not just in this race, but you've got Saudi Crown,
00:57:59we've talked about in a good offing mile.
00:58:02Casa Creed is back again.
00:58:04I kind of thought he had retired, but no, Casa Creed is back in another effort to win
00:58:08the Alcua sprint.
00:58:10And then you've got the UAE Derby with some interesting horses as well.
00:58:14Yeah, of course.
00:58:15Also, Agosto Dan will run in the Shima Classic.
00:58:18We know how special he is.
00:58:20So lots of racing action this Saturday.
00:58:23Yeah, let's talk about the UAE Derby just for a second.
00:58:26TD might want to talk about this as well.
00:58:28In almost any derby ranking that you look at, and we talked about the Saudi Derby and
00:58:34the race that Forever Young ran in that race to get up and win.
00:58:39It wasn't that visually impressive, but by the clock compared to the Saudi Cup, it was
00:58:45just as fast as the Saudi Cup.
00:58:46So it was an extremely impressive race.
00:58:48I've had a lot of people tell me that they believe, their opinion, that it was too tough
00:58:56on Forever Young and it probably took a lot out of him because it was a long, grueling
00:59:00stretch run.
00:59:02But the fact remains that if you just go by numbers and you go by records and all that,
00:59:07you look at any top 10 right now, Forever Young in the UAE Derby is one of the Kentucky
00:59:14Derby contenders, I would think.
00:59:16Do you agree, TD?
00:59:17And I think enough people had respect for those numbers to back Forever Young.
00:59:22I believe he was 12 to 1 in the most recent Derby Futures betting sequence.
00:59:28So there is some support out there for him.
00:59:30Yeah, he was the third choice behind Sierra Leone and maybe Timberlake.
00:59:35I don't remember, but he was way up there near the top.
00:59:38Yeah.
00:59:39The XBTV Work of the Week is Moonlit Sonata.
00:59:42Worked five furlongs in one minute and 8.80 seconds Saturday morning at Santa Anita.
00:59:47Fifth last time out on the Robert B. Lewis behind Nysos.
00:59:50Moonlit Sonata is going to at least temporarily hop off the Triple Crown Trail and give the
00:59:54grass a try in a turf allowance at Santa Anita on Friday.
00:59:58I'll be right back after this message from XBTV.
01:00:28All the thrills.
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01:00:52West Point Thoroughbreds, the gold standard in racing partnerships.
01:00:57Visit WestPointTV.com.
01:01:01The TDN Writer's Room also brought to you by West Point Thoroughbreds.
01:01:04West Point has now fully syndicated the six horses it acquired during the OBS March
01:01:09sale of two-year-olds in training.
01:01:10And you know what will happen next.
01:01:12Those West Point owners will be vaulted into the world of instant camaraderie.
01:01:17But there's much more on the immediate horizon.
01:01:19Terry Finley and company will now turn their sights on the OBS April sale, where last year
01:01:25West Point and partners managed to acquire Zevereff, the son of Oscar Performance, who
01:01:29won the Jeff Ruby undercard last Saturday at Turfway Park, scored a pretty impressive
01:01:33maiden win with a buyer speed figure of 83 for trainer Cherie DeVoe.
01:01:38You can learn more about all this at WestPointTV.com.
01:01:50And that's a wrap on this week's TDN Writer's Room podcast.
01:01:55I want to thank my partners, Randy Moss and TD Thornton, TD filling in for Zoe Cabman,
01:01:59who'll be back next week.
01:02:01Also, our producers, Katie Petruniak and Anthony LaRocca, and our editors, Ali LaRocca and
01:02:06Nathan Wilkinson.
01:02:07And I saw Lucy back there.
01:02:08She's back there somewhere, right?
01:02:10There she is.
01:02:10There you go.
01:02:11Hi, Lucy.
01:02:11Sound asleep.
01:02:13Hey, Lucy.
01:02:14Hey, Lucy.
01:02:15Oh, she moved.
01:02:17That's the most...
01:02:21show of life I've ever seen from your wonderful dog.
01:02:23Anyways, thanks so much for tuning us in.
01:02:25Going to be a great weekend of racing with the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby.
01:02:29Dubai World Cup we'll have plenty to talk about next week.
01:02:31Once again, thanks for listening.
01:02:33Thanks for tuning in.
01:02:33See you later.