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00:00:00For the love of the horse, for generations to come.
00:00:28And welcome to another edition of the TDN Writer's Room.
00:00:30My name is Bill Finley.
00:00:31I'm a correspondent for the Thoroughbred Daily News, and I co-host the Down the Restretch
00:00:35radio show on Saturdays on SiriusXM with Dave Johnson.
00:00:39Hope y'all are all doing well.
00:00:41I'm Randy Moss with NBC Sports.
00:00:43I didn't want to bother Lucy, but I see, I see Doodle.
00:00:47Hi Doodle.
00:00:48Doodle's here.
00:00:49He's made a little entrance to our cabin with First Racing and XBTV and Doodle's looking
00:00:55old and he's a bit smelly.
00:00:57So I'm probably going to put him down in just a moment, but he wanted to say hi.
00:01:02How old is he Zoe?
00:01:03He's 15.
00:01:04Oh, good boy, good old guy.
00:01:07How about that?
00:01:08All right.
00:01:09So plenty to talk about in this week's edition of the TDN Writer's Room and let's go right
00:01:14to the races run over the weekend and I thought we would start with the Florida Derby since
00:01:18that was the story of the weekend with all that was going on in Arkansas and Dubai fierceness.
00:01:24Most people said the same things.
00:01:26We don't know what to expect from this horse.
00:01:29And even if you think the good fierceness was going to show up, which it did, did anybody
00:01:33think he's going to win by 13 and a half lengths, get a 110 buyer?
00:01:38Randy, to me, it was one of the most impressive performance.
00:01:41I know he got a good trip, definitely got an easy trip, but nonetheless, 13 and a half,
00:01:46a very impressive performance and clearly the favorite in the Kentucky Derby.
00:01:51Oh yeah.
00:01:52He got an easy trip, but horses with tactical speed are supposed to make their own trips,
00:01:57right?
00:01:58That's what he did in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
00:02:01Less people believe that he needs a clear lead to run like that in the Breeders' Cup
00:02:05Juvenile.
00:02:06He sat right outside of Chad Brownhorse stalking second and Muth ran up to him at the quarter
00:02:11pole on the outside and he left Muth for dead and drew off in one by five lengths and change.
00:02:18So he can do it either way.
00:02:21What struck me is in the lead up to the race, talking to Todd Pletcher and talking to Mike
00:02:27Ripolle, but Pletcher specifically, you know, I asked him out of all the good horses you've
00:02:33trained in your career, three-year-old and otherwise, if all you had to go on was what
00:02:40you see in their morning training, where would you put fierceness in that whole realm of
00:02:47all your good horses?
00:02:49And he said in the top one percent, wow, the horse has been amazing in the mornings.
00:02:56And that's why, you know, it was so mystifying that he seemed to just check himself out whenever
00:03:03he got into some early trouble like he did in the Champagne and he did in the Holy Bull.
00:03:07I'm not trying to minimize the trouble that he got into in those races, which was, you
00:03:11know, fairly substantial, especially in the Holy Bull.
00:03:15But this was the same fierceness that they've been seeing in the morning.
00:03:20And if you go back on XBTV and you look at workouts like Zoey does, you can go back and
00:03:26watch a workout that fierceness had before the Florida Derby against a horse called Tuscan
00:03:31Sky, who's I think he's two for two.
00:03:34He's probably going to run in the bluegrass stakes, obviously trained by Pletcher.
00:03:38And you know, they went side by side at Palm Beach Downs for the workout, as most of their
00:03:44horses do.
00:03:45And then on a gallop out, they asked them both to run and fierceness left Tuscan Sky
00:03:51behind like he was tied to the rail.
00:03:53It was amazing.
00:03:55And they were actually kind of niggling on Tuscan Sky to try to get him to keep up.
00:03:59And I mean, fierceness just disappeared into the sunset.
00:04:03So yeah, I mean, that was the fierceness that we saw at the Breeders' Cup.
00:04:08A little bit more mature, a little bit older.
00:04:11And if he shows up in the Kentucky Derby, that's the same fierceness that they're going
00:04:15to see sort of disappearing into the horizon down the line.
00:04:19What was the buyer he got, Randy?
00:04:22110, which could have been 111, 112, 113.
00:04:26It was fast.
00:04:28Wow.
00:04:29He was he was fabulous.
00:04:30I mean, every quarter he got like sub 24 middle quarters and was geared down in the end.
00:04:37His only problem is he can't seem to overcome adversity.
00:04:42And maybe it's just something that he needs to work through and grow up through.
00:04:46But you are correct.
00:04:47If the real fierceness shows up on the first Saturday in May, that's not going to beat
00:04:51him.
00:04:52Absolutely not.
00:04:53I mean, he's absolutely brilliant.
00:04:54You know, I mean, you could call him a morning glory, but he's managed to have several races
00:04:59in the afternoon that have substantiated that.
00:05:03So I thought it was fantastic.
00:05:05Maybe Ripoli is going to quit buying horses from the sales because this is another home
00:05:09bred for Ripoli.
00:05:11He's doing a very good job in his breeding operation thus far.
00:05:15So Zoe, let me follow that up and get your opinion on this.
00:05:18And, you know, I'm just playing devil's advocate here because I mean, how could you not like
00:05:21this horse?
00:05:22How could you not be impressed with him?
00:05:23But in a 20 horse race in the Derby, he's probably going to get knocked around at some
00:05:28point.
00:05:29I mean, that happens to almost every horse in the Derby.
00:05:31He's not going to get an uncontested lead and he's not going to get to the half and
00:05:3547 and two like he did in Florida.
00:05:38Does the bad fierceness show up in the Derby if he has something less than a perfect trip?
00:05:45The good fierceness will be tested and we will see just exactly what his metal is.
00:05:50Because one thing we know about Johnny V is that he can get one out of the gate and come
00:05:57hell or high water, he'll get that horse out of trouble.
00:06:00Because I think he honestly learned a little bit riding for Bob the last few years, especially
00:06:06like shipping to Arkansas and Bob will want his horses on the lead and you're going to
00:06:09go.
00:06:10I don't care if they come over you over on you at the beginning of the race, you're going
00:06:13to eat your way through then get that horse, the best kind of trip you can get.
00:06:17So how fast is he going to have to go to get that kind of trip that he needs?
00:06:22I don't know.
00:06:23It will be a severe test for him and he is going to be draw dependent.
00:06:28Like I said, he's going to need a super comfy drawer as well, but perhaps he's just grown
00:06:32up.
00:06:33I don't know.
00:06:34I don't know.
00:06:35Randy, I want to ask you, I'll pose the same question to you.
00:06:37Yeah.
00:06:38Well, look, the beauty of horse racing and the challenge of horse racing is the vast
00:06:43majority of circumstances, you've always got to prove yourself all over again.
00:06:48The next time they run, there are always questions.
00:06:51And if there aren't questions, people are going to find questions, right?
00:06:55So with fierceness, I mean, the question before the Florida Derby was, you know, look
00:07:00what happened to him in the Holy Bowl, which fierceness are we going to see?
00:07:03And so we saw the fierceness that we saw at the Breeders' Cup.
00:07:07And even though he's going to be the favorite in Kentucky, the question in Kentucky is going
00:07:10to be, well, what happens if he has some adversity and if he doesn't have adversity and he wins
00:07:15the Kentucky Derby by six or seven at the Preakness, same question.
00:07:19What if he gets bumped at the start?
00:07:21What if he has adversity, right?
00:07:23Until he does that, until he gets adversity and he's able to overcome it, that's always
00:07:29going to be a question that's going to be in the back of the minds of horse players
00:07:33and observers and analysts.
00:07:37As far as the pace goes, he doesn't have to have the lead.
00:07:40We saw that in the Breeders' Cup and the Breeders' Cup was a pretty fast-paced race and he was
00:07:45right up there with it and then managed to kick on nicely through the lane.
00:07:50So unless it's just one of these suicidal Kentucky Derby paces like we've seen in the
00:07:55past, I think this horse is good enough to go at a pretty fast clip and then continue
00:08:01on and run his race.
00:08:04The disappointments in the race, Conquest Warrior was fourth, Hades the winner of the
00:08:07Holy Bull was fifth, won't be seeing either one of them in the Derby.
00:08:11Two long shots were second and third, Catalytic and Grand Mo the first.
00:08:16Here on the card, the Gulfstream Park Oaks and the race was won by Power Squeeze, obviously
00:08:22a horse that I think people took too lightly.
00:08:25She had won two stakes coming in, didn't have great numbers and she goes and wins this race
00:08:30at 11-1.
00:08:31The horse that ran second, Ways and Means, Randy, I think I know where you're going to
00:08:35go with this because I would say the same thing.
00:08:37I think he ran a huge race, excuse me, she ran a huge race.
00:08:40I talked to Chad Brown about it, I said, are you going to go in the Oaks?
00:08:43He says, I sure want to, I hope I have enough points to get in.
00:08:46Considering the trip she had and the layoff and everything that she was trying to accomplish,
00:08:52even though she didn't win the Gulfstream Park Oaks, I could certainly see her winning
00:08:55the Kentucky Oaks.
00:08:56You would have to think she would move forward off of that race.
00:09:00She looks like she just ran out of gas the last 16th of a mile or so.
00:09:04Nothing against Power Squeeze, who's now won four races in a row.
00:09:07It was a pretty fast race, but I mean, look, I mean, I think that coming off that long
00:09:16layoff like that, what, a seven-month layoff or something like that, that she should, Ways
00:09:20and Means should show a lot of improvement.
00:09:22Now is she going to get in?
00:09:24The last two years, it took 48 last year and 50 points the year before to get into the
00:09:30starting field for the Kentucky Oaks and finishing second.
00:09:33She obviously has 50 points, so it puts her sort of like right on the cusp, but good news
00:09:39for her is that when the Santa Anita Oaks is run, Baffert is going to have Kinza in
00:09:46there and she's going to be one to five, and that's going to take care of a 100-point horse
00:09:50probably right there, which she wins the Santa Anita Oaks.
00:09:54So you would have to think that would work in Ways and Means' favor.
00:09:57Yeah, I was just about to jump on that, Randy.
00:10:00I mean, take nothing away from the winner.
00:10:02She's won four of six.
00:10:04She's a really good filly.
00:10:05We'll test her mettle in the Kentucky Oaks, but my goodness, Ways and Means, how much
00:10:11the best was she?
00:10:12I don't honestly know how she didn't go down going into the first turn.
00:10:16I think Arand wanted to get her out of trouble on the backside and made a ridiculously early
00:10:21move on her, and I don't know how she overcame that trouble and didn't go down going into
00:10:26the first turn.
00:10:27It was well-documented.
00:10:29The time off, they took a little chip out of an ankle.
00:10:32She came out of the spinaway after clipping heels with that.
00:10:34It was Arand's first time aboard her, and she's the real deal, and she's been the real
00:10:40deal from day one.
00:10:41I've been a big fan of hers.
00:10:44I believe that she will be the best filly in the Kentucky Oaks.
00:10:47I really do.
00:10:48Wow.
00:10:49Big statement there from Zoe Gadman.
00:10:51I do want to remind you that the TDN is brought to you at each and every week by Keeneland.
00:10:57Now, spring is here.
00:10:58It's nice and sunny out here in Southern California, and it'll probably be nice and sunny there
00:11:03at Keeneland.
00:11:04It's opening week at Keeneland.
00:11:05This Friday is opening day for the Keeneland Spring Meeting, which runs until April 26th,
00:11:11which is also the date of the April selected Horses of Racing Age sale.
00:11:17Later in today's podcast, we'll talk to Dr. Stuart Brown, Keeneland's Vice President of
00:11:21Equine Safety, and he'll talk about the safety measures being taken for the spring meet at
00:11:26Keeneland.
00:11:27I also grill him about the Graham test.
00:11:29You'll have to listen in to that.
00:11:31We'll be right back after these messages from Keeneland.
00:11:34When the spring meet ends, summer success begins.
00:11:40Buy, sell, fresh winners, hot prospects.
00:11:47One night, one chance.
00:11:50Finish strong.
00:11:52Don't miss out.
00:11:53The Keeneland April Selected Horses of Racing Age sale.
00:11:57Friday, April 26th.
00:12:05This week, the fastest horse of the week is brought to you by Constitution, one of those
00:12:10fast sires at Windstar Farm.
00:12:12Constitution is the sire of our newest TD and rising star, three-year-old Colt Mindframe,
00:12:19who romped to a 13 and three-quarter length debut victory Saturday on the Florida Derby
00:12:23Undercard for owners Mike Rapoli and Vinnie Viola and trainer Todd Fletcher.
00:12:28Mindframe's buyer speed figure of 103 was the fastest debut figure since the 104 by
00:12:35Speed Boat Beach at Del Mar in September of 2022.
00:12:40So far this year, horses by Constitution have more 100-plus buyer speed figures than any
00:12:46sire in Kentucky, including that 100-debut buyer earned by Speakeasy back in the winter
00:12:53at Gulfstream Park.
00:12:54Constitution stands for $110,000 at Windstar Farm.
00:12:59As for the fastest horse of the week, no surprise, we've already talked about him at length,
00:13:03it's fierceness, of course, with that 110 buyer.
00:13:06How about a fastest horse of the week, rabbit hole, buyer speed figure trivia question?
00:13:14The last Kentucky Derby starter with a buyer speed figure of 110 or higher on his past
00:13:22performances?
00:13:23You can think about it if you're interested, and I'll have the answer for you at the end
00:13:27of the podcast.
00:13:28How about that?
00:13:29Okay, you stumped me on that one, Randy, but that's an excellent rabbit hole diversion
00:13:34as well.
00:13:35So, all right, so let's head to Arkansas, where the big story, of course, was the Arkansas
00:13:38Derby.
00:13:39And you know what?
00:13:40There's not a whole lot to say about this because we're trying to focus in on the Kentucky
00:13:45Derby.
00:13:46Muth wins for Baffert, he's not going to be in the Kentucky Derby.
00:13:48I've voiced this before, and I'll just say it one more time because it deserves to be
00:13:53said again.
00:13:54This is stupid.
00:13:56What Churchill Downs just did by extending his ban, the Baffert ban, into 2024, all it's
00:14:03done is to dilute the field for the Kentucky Derby, and also the Kentucky Oaks that Randy
00:14:09mentioned earlier.
00:14:10Martha could be the best filly in the country by a mile, and she won't be in the Kentucky
00:14:14Oaks.
00:14:15I assume Baffert didn't say much afterwards about what direction he was going to go, but
00:14:20you would have to assume that he'll be back in the preakness with Muth.
00:14:23And how about old D. Wayne Lucas?
00:14:26Just steal his second.
00:14:28He's on his way to the Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby.
00:14:31Lucas has not had a horse in the Kentucky Derby since 2008.
00:14:36I just wrote this down.
00:14:37I think it's 2018.
00:14:39Randy, you must know that.
00:14:40Am I right about that?
00:14:422018?
00:14:43I did not look it up, Bill.
00:14:45I apologize.
00:14:46Zoe, you can start your take on the situation and the Muth victory.
00:14:51Well, I mean, it's up to Churchill Downs.
00:14:54There's nothing we can say or do about it.
00:14:56Baffert tried his best and that didn't happen.
00:14:58But Muth, hey, you know what?
00:15:01I really like the race for Muth.
00:15:02Obviously, he's had a big following all along.
00:15:04He was a $2 million purchase.
00:15:06But the one thing that I noticed for Muth this time was he was allowed to relax off the pace.
00:15:12Now, we sent him forward to begin with.
00:15:14That didn't work.
00:15:15He got a nice comfy spot in between horses and just tracked the pace.
00:15:19We saw Timberlake make perhaps an early move because Pratt knew he had to beat Muth.
00:15:25Timberlake faltered.
00:15:26I believe he was fourth, I think.
00:15:28But Muth was much the best in there.
00:15:30And he showed the ability to come from off the pace, which in my mind means that you
00:15:35can be a really good horse because I hate these one-dimensional horses that have to
00:15:39have the lead and have to have everything their own way.
00:15:42I love the race by Muth.
00:15:43I really did.
00:15:44Let me just jump in real quick, Randy.
00:15:48I was right.
00:15:492018, last Wayne Lucas starter.
00:15:51His last win, 1999, with Charismatic.
00:15:55So six years off from the Derby and it looks like Wayne will be front and center at Churchill
00:16:00Downs Derby Week.
00:16:01You beat me to it.
00:16:02I just looked it up also.
00:16:036th place finish in 2018.
00:16:06OK, so we know about Muth.
00:16:10He's a really nice horse.
00:16:11He was obviously much the best.
00:16:12Let's talk about the three horses that were behind him.
00:16:14First of all, Timberlake, the even money favorite.
00:16:17If you go back and watch Timberlake as a two-year-old, one of his problems, which was a concern going
00:16:24forward with Timberlake about his ability to get a distance of ground, was that he was
00:16:28very eager, very overaggressive, tended to be a little bit keen, right?
00:16:33That's why they loved his race in the Rebels so much, because he sat behind horses on the
00:16:38first turn going into the backstretch, was a lot more patient than he had been in the
00:16:42past, waited for the cues of the rider, they steered him to the outside, here he comes,
00:16:47he wins nicely.
00:16:48Against an easier field, but he did it the right way.
00:16:51He kind of reverted, I thought, in the Arkansas Derby.
00:16:53He was behind horses going into the backstretch and I think he got a little too aggressive
00:16:59and, you know, pulled his way through between horses and opened up early.
00:17:02I think he expended a little too much energy in the early part of the race, more than they
00:17:06wanted him to, and I think that's one of the explanations for his six-length defeat.
00:17:12Again, he was in against tougher competition, but I think he ran two or three lengths worse
00:17:18in the Arkansas Derby than he did in the Rebel.
00:17:20I think that's the reason why, and it does not bode well for a mile and a quarter in
00:17:25a 20-horse field with 150,000 people at Churchill Downs to try to get him to relax.
00:17:30OK, Just Steele, a little bit wide on the first turn, a little bit wide on the second
00:17:34turn.
00:17:35Muth left him behind at the quarter pole, but Just Steele opened up through the lane
00:17:40on Timberlake and also Mystic Dan, who finished right next to Timberlake.
00:17:47They were third and fourth, respectively.
00:17:50Mystic Dan had had a rail trip on a fast rail, winning the Southwest Stakes.
00:17:55He obviously had no track bias in his favor in the Arkansas Derby, he was also outside
00:17:59on both turns, and I think we saw the same Mystic Dan that we're probably likely to
00:18:05see in the Kentucky Derby if he goes at 25 or 30-to-1 in that particular race.
00:18:11But Muth, obviously, tons the best.
00:18:15Zoe?
00:18:17That's it.
00:18:18I mean, Muth.
00:18:19All right.
00:18:20Yeah.
00:18:21Well, OK, the Fantasy Stakes won by the Ken McPeak-trained Thorpedo Anna.
00:18:26She looks good going into the Kentucky Derby.
00:18:28But why don't we now go to Dubai and cover those races and the Dubai World Cup?
00:18:33My goodness, what the hell was Laurel River?
00:18:37Wow.
00:18:38Matter of fact, some people have said that this was the most impressive Dubai World Cup
00:18:42they've ever seen.
00:18:44When you have to remember, you're talking about Arrowgate in his great performance in
00:18:48the Dubai World Cup.
00:18:50So Zoe, I'm sure, remembers this horse from being in Southern California.
00:18:54He won the Pat O'Brien Stakes in 2022 for Bob Baffert, took a ton of time off.
00:19:00They brought him back.
00:19:01They gave him to a new trainer.
00:19:02They brought him back.
00:19:03And then he comes into this and just obliterates the field by eight and a half lengths.
00:19:07Now, here's the rest of the story.
00:19:09When I read that they may not run again till the Saudi Cup next year, my head exploded.
00:19:17That's what we're doing now?
00:19:18We're going to run a horse once a year, twice a year?
00:19:22Bill Maher, Brad Cox, and let's see what he can do in America.
00:19:25Come on, guys.
00:19:26Judd.
00:19:27Judd Montean.
00:19:28Let's see it.
00:19:29Oh, I think most of the races they're pointing for, like, I don't I believe he's going to
00:19:33run in between now and then.
00:19:34In fact, Bupat Seema, who's a former foreman assistant to Bob Baffert out here for a number
00:19:40of years, that they're still very close, was on the Nick Luck podcast.
00:19:45And they posed to him the same question, you know, do you think you'll bring him stateside
00:19:49for, you know, the mid derby, the Travers, everything else that we have over here?
00:19:54And he's like, well, I don't know.
00:19:55He's already been over there.
00:19:56And there's a reason that he got sent to him.
00:20:00He's only run 10 times.
00:20:01He's won six of them.
00:20:03He had a little bit of time off and Garrett O'Rourke called him and said, hey, we're going
00:20:07to send you this horse, Laurel River.
00:20:09His initial start in Dubai was not good whatsoever, but he bounced back terrifically.
00:20:17And he was very, very impressive.
00:20:19Now I know that Bob ran him in the Pat O'Brien and he ran him sprinting just because he was
00:20:24so terrifically fast, but he's got speed and he can carry it.
00:20:27He's out of an empire mare.
00:20:29A lot of that family is long distance in that family.
00:20:32I'm sure Randy's already been down the rabbit hole.
00:20:34I didn't look into it because I was wondering if Randy had like looked into the pedigree,
00:20:39but there is distance in there.
00:20:41And the main races that they want to point to are next year's big money races.
00:20:46Now, if you know anything about Bupat Sima, you might've heard of a horse called Switzerland
00:20:50who basically ran six years in a row in the sprint race in Dubai and ran till he was 11
00:20:56years old, purely for the fact that they point to their carnival, the Dubai racing carnival
00:21:02over there.
00:21:03This is the off season for them.
00:21:05They don't race in the heat of the summer in Dubai.
00:21:07So if you want to keep your horses running longer, this horse is six years old.
00:21:12He's lightly raced.
00:21:13I can totally see why he wants to point to those big races at the height of their carnival,
00:21:19Saudi, Dubai, and make a ton of money over there.
00:21:24I guess if you only run them two or three times a year, but a couple of those races
00:21:27are worth $20 million, you can make a little bit more of a case for doing something like
00:21:33that. I didn't go down the rabbit hole for Laurel River about pedigree because I'm familiar
00:21:37with the horse from when Bob Baffert had it.
00:21:40Sprinting at Santa Anita, he ran a 108 fire speed figure and looked fantastic.
00:21:45And Bob was absolutely convinced that the horse was a distance horse.
00:21:50He was not a sprinter.
00:21:52He told me at the time that he's going to be better at a distance of ground.
00:21:56And he wanted to run him at that time.
00:21:58He wanted to point him for the Breeders' Cup Classic.
00:22:01And then something happened.
00:22:03Something called Flightline happened in Southern California.
00:22:06So Bob said, well, instead of running him against Flightline in the Pacific Classic,
00:22:10I'll just point him for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and no one will beat him.
00:22:15And then he got hurt and couldn't make the Breeders' Cup.
00:22:18And then they sold him to Bupat Seymour's people.
00:22:20And now we see what the result is.
00:22:22But it's a horse that-
00:22:22Well, Jabmon still owns him.
00:22:24Jabmon still owns him.
00:22:25Okay.
00:22:26Okay.
00:22:27Yeah.
00:22:28But, I mean, we've seen now what, you know, what Baffert saw back then, that he thought
00:22:33the horse would be even better at a distance of ground than he is sprinting.
00:22:38And Jabmon's got another good one.
00:22:41So you talk about the best Dubai World Cups that you've seen.
00:22:44This is third best for me.
00:22:47Number one would be Jabmon, right, with Aragate.
00:22:51Aragate.
00:22:52To me, number two is Dubai Millennium, back when he won the Dubai World Cup,
00:22:57which was just a spectacular performance.
00:23:00And then I would put Laurel River, number three.
00:23:02We don't do official buyer speed figures for Dubai.
00:23:06We think we've got a pretty good line on what the number probably should be.
00:23:10And we made an educated guess that Laurel River ran about a 116 in the Dubai World Cup.
00:23:19Fantastic performance.
00:23:21Earlier on the card, the UAE Derby, the Japanese win it for the third straight year.
00:23:26Forever Young also wins the Saudi Derby.
00:23:28I think he'll be coming to Churchill Downs with a perfect five for five record.
00:23:32Randy, I watched the CNBC broadcast of the Florida Derby,
00:23:38and you commented about the UAE Derby.
00:23:39You were such a big Dermis Sotogaki fan.
00:23:41And I think either Jerry Bailey or someone else on the show asked you,
00:23:45does this horse look as strong as Dermis Sotogaki did last year?
00:23:49And you flat out said no.
00:23:50So, you know, what is the difference in this horse that you're not as enthusiastic
00:23:55as you were about last year's Japanese winner of the Dubai World Cup?
00:23:59Excuse me, the UAE Derby.
00:24:01One word, fierceness.
00:24:03OK.
00:24:03Right now, I have Forever Young second in my derby picking order behind fierceness.
00:24:12Again, I don't want to get, you know, I don't want to overdose people on numbers.
00:24:15I think I've said that in the past.
00:24:17But you can look, if you're handicapping, you can sort of look at the Saudi Derby
00:24:23in buyer terms at about a 100 or a 101.
00:24:27And you can look at the UAE Derby at about a 96.
00:24:31OK, the UAE Derby was run 20 buyer points slower than the Dubai World Cup.
00:24:36So 116, 96 is a really good line on those two races.
00:24:41And he ran a 96, Forever Young, despite going four wide on both turns.
00:24:47So you can boost that 96 probably by five or six points if he gets a better trip
00:24:54in the Kentucky Derby.
00:24:55For whatever reason, I don't really understand it, but the connections
00:25:00of Forever Young seem to be absolutely obsessed with getting him out of kickback
00:25:07to the point that they put that hood on him.
00:25:09They weren't blinkers.
00:25:11They didn't have a cup.
00:25:12They put a hood on him for the UAE Derby, according to the trainer,
00:25:17to soften the blow of the kickback.
00:25:20Yet his eyes were still exposed.
00:25:22That's the part that bothers horses the most.
00:25:26I guess maybe they didn't think he would like kickback on his cheeks or his forehead
00:25:30or something.
00:25:30I don't really understand it.
00:25:32But if you go back and you watch Forever Young's all his races, a couple of those
00:25:37races, he took a lot of kickback and he was able to win anyway.
00:25:41So I don't really understand what the obsession with that is.
00:25:44But if they try to get him outside and keep him out of kickback in the Kentucky
00:25:50Derby, he's got zero chance.
00:25:53Unless he's just sitting right there second or third outside of two other horses
00:25:57and he's close up and he's not behind horses at all and he gets the right kind
00:26:00of draw and all that, and he can stay out of kickback that way.
00:26:04But if they steer him to the outside to get him out of kickback in the Derby,
00:26:08how wide is he going to be?
00:26:11And that bothers me too.
00:26:12Was he wearing a hood or was he wearing a set of pacifiers?
00:26:15What is that?
00:26:17You know, the pacifiers, they kind of look like a hood, but they have screens to stop
00:26:23the dirt hitting the horse in the face, almost like a fly.
00:26:28If you know what a fly looks like with the eyes like that, that's called a pacifier
00:26:32and it's to negate the kickback.
00:26:35I wonder if he was married.
00:26:36It was my impression that it was just a hood and not a pacifier.
00:26:41It was just a hood and there was no kind of eyewear whatsoever, but I wouldn't, you know.
00:26:46Because the pacifiers come without the blink of things.
00:26:49It's just basically a mesh, a wire mesh to stop the kickback.
00:26:53And I thought he ran a lot better.
00:26:55One thing that he did do was switch leads on cue.
00:26:58You could see that they've been practicing.
00:27:00The jockey shifted his weight and yanked him over and he did it the first time.
00:27:04So I think he's definitely progressed and moved forward since the Saudi Derby.
00:27:09The UAE Derby was a much, much better race for Forever Young.
00:27:14Is he good enough to win the Kentucky Derby?
00:27:17Probably not.
00:27:18But he's definitely a progressive sort of horse who is getting a little bit better.
00:27:23As far as Derma Sotogaki, I gather he hit his head in the starting gate prior to the
00:27:28race that kind of threw him off, like pretty badly by all accounts, Randy.
00:27:33And of course, what we're going to hear ad nauseum between now and when the starting
00:27:37gate opens for the Kentucky Derby is, can Forever Young have a really tough race in
00:27:43the Saudi Derby?
00:27:44And then again, a really tough race going wide on both terms in the UAE Derby, and then
00:27:48ship Transatlantic and be able to hold his form.
00:27:52UAE Derby winners are, yes, they're 0 for 19 in the Kentucky Derby, never mind the fact
00:27:58that the average odds have been 23 to 1.
00:28:00You're going to hear a lot about that, people saying that he has no chance in the Kentucky
00:28:04Derby.
00:28:05But he does if things go right and they don't try to steer him out six or seven wide to
00:28:12get him out of kickback.
00:28:14And one thing about the Japanese horses, too, is they're fitter than most of us, the way
00:28:18they train them.
00:28:19They train them for hours.
00:28:21It's just magnificent to watch them train because we've had a few out here at Santa
00:28:25Anita.
00:28:26They're going around again.
00:28:27How many times are they going around?
00:28:29And then they'll stop and then they'll go around again.
00:28:31So stamina is not a problem for the Japanese horses.
00:28:35And Yoshito Hagagi, you know, his father died the morning of the race.
00:28:39So he dedicated the UAE Derby to his dad, which I thought was really cool.
00:28:44And he's just such a great man.
00:28:47He wears his different hat every time you see him at the races.
00:28:50He's always got a smile on his face.
00:28:52So I'm welcoming him to the Derby.
00:28:54I think it'll be great.
00:28:56TDN Riders Room is brought to you by the PHBA, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association,
00:29:01an overflow field is expected for the Wood Memorial on Saturday, and an aqueduct car
00:29:06that will also be overflowing with talented Pennsylvania breds.
00:29:10Withers Stakes winner Uncle Heavy is a Wood Memorial contender for trainer Butch Reed.
00:29:15Carmelina is expected to run in the Gazelle for three-year-old fillies.
00:29:19She was second in the Buescher Stakes in her last start.
00:29:22And in the seven-furlong Bayshore for three-year-olds, Maximus Meridius is expected to run.
00:29:28He most recently was fourth in the one-mile Gotham Stakes.
00:29:32For more information on breeding and racing your very own Pennsylvania breds, such as
00:29:37Uncle Heavy, Carmelina, and Maximus Meridius, you can go to www.pabred.com.
00:29:45The state of Pennsylvania has the best breeders program in the entire United States.
00:29:50When you buy a yearling, it's a little bit like buying a lottery ticket.
00:29:53And we are trying to provide the lottery ticket that the likelihood is to hit the jackpot.
00:29:58Angel of Empire wins the Arkansas Derby and wins it clear.
00:30:02Uncle Heavy late, it's a photo finish!
00:30:06Pennsylvania and the PHBA have the best state-bred program in the country, bar none.
00:30:11The winner, Uncle Heavy.
00:30:12He's a three-year-old bred in Pennsylvania.
00:30:15Spicetown.
00:30:18Munnings.
00:30:22Echotown.
00:30:25It's Echotown for Joe Palomo.
00:30:27And Echotown breaks the wave.
00:30:30And Echotown is drawing away in the stretch.
00:30:33Echotown wins the Allen Turkin Stakes.
00:30:35A sire line so prolific, it repeats itself.
00:30:40Echotown.
00:30:42It's time for the Coolmore Stallion of the Week.
00:30:46And this week, that is Echotown.
00:30:48Echotown's first two-year-olds went on sale two weeks ago at OBS March.
00:30:52From a $5,000 stud fee, they sold for fees of $130,000, $120,000 and $110,000.
00:30:59And why not?
00:30:59He was a grade one winning sprinter by Spicetown and a half-brother to the champion two-year-old Philly, Echo Zulu.
00:31:07Zoe, you saw the Echotowns at OBS.
00:31:09What'd you think of them?
00:31:10I like them.
00:31:11In fact, I'm going to like do a little plug right now because the team of TMZ,
00:31:16Tesha, Marrette Farrell and myself, we call ourselves TMZ,
00:31:20or except at the end of the sale, which is too much, Zoe.
00:31:23We bought one at the end of the Keeneland sale for $17,000.
00:31:28He's in training down in Ocala with Nelly Breeden, aka Gladwell, on their farm.
00:31:33And we're actually pointing him to the OBS June sale.
00:31:36I think they're going to need a little bit more time, which is why he's going to go to the June sale.
00:31:40But I've really liked what I've seen from them.
00:31:42They're good movers.
00:31:44They look like they can go two turns.
00:31:47They're not actual sprinter.
00:31:49They don't have a sprinter type body, or at least ours doesn't.
00:31:52So I'm really excited.
00:31:54And you know, he's a half to champion.
00:31:56He's a grade one winner.
00:31:57His half-sister is a multiple grade one winner.
00:32:00She should have won the Breeders' Cup sprint.
00:32:02And I'm very, very excited for ours going to OBS June.
00:32:07There's a quick plug for you.
00:32:09Echotown stands at Coolmore for just $5,000.
00:32:14The TD and Writer's Room brought to you by The Green Group, a tax accounting and advisory firm specializing in the thoroughbred industry and designed to save you money on your taxes.
00:32:28Welcome in now.
00:32:29The Green Group guest of the week is Dr. Stuart Brown.
00:32:32His title is vice president of equine safety at Keeneland.
00:32:35Equine safety, always a very important topic.
00:32:38And it's great to talk with Dr. Brown to talk about what they're doing, not only at Keeneland, but what we're doing around the country to make this game as safe as possible for our horses.
00:32:47Dr. Brown, you started in June of 2020, about four years later.
00:32:52Obviously, the game has gotten safer in that period of time.
00:32:55Would you agree?
00:32:56And what has been the main reason?
00:32:58Thank you, Bill.
00:32:59I think, you know, I think the game has gotten safer.
00:33:02I think that what we recognize today, especially through a lot of the collaboration that we have amongst a lot of different groups, not just the racing associations, but, you know, within a regulatory veterinary community, but working with the horsemen and the attending veterinarians, you know, there's been a really intensive drive toward these collaborations and the impact that we can have on equine safety.
00:33:23I think here, you know, we talk a lot about that, you know, when we keep the four-legged mane and a tail entity at the center of everything we do, our focus can kind of really be well aligned around all these efforts that kind of translate into the safety proposition that we're looking to leverage, you know, on behalf of making a difference for the horse.
00:33:43Well, Stuart, it's great to talk to you.
00:33:45I can see you're in your office there at Keeneland.
00:33:48Just explain to us a little bit what Keeneland is doing, because I know we're going through a similar thing out here in Southern California with the vets and the regulatory vets, and I can see there's a giant screen behind you.
00:34:01Explain to us what that's for, because I think we have one at Santa Anita as well.
00:34:06Yeah, thanks, Zoe.
00:34:07I think, you know, folks like yourself would probably be familiar with, you know, from my colleagues like Dr. Blea that are in California and Dr. Carpenter, as well as Dr. Benson and all the different folks there.
00:34:19I think what we have, you know, is this relationship that continues to sort of grow and emerge against a backdrop of all the things that we're trying to do on behalf of the horse.
00:34:27And so the vet cam system here that we have at Keeneland is one that we're really proud of here that sort of helped us to leverage technology.
00:34:34And here, it's really an example of a tremendous collaboration.
00:34:39You know, I'm fortunate enough to be joined by Dr. George Mundy that's part of our team as well here, who had worked in the regulatory space for some 30 years, as well as you kind of got the backdrop of my 30 some odd years of private practice experience and bringing and marrying up those two worlds together.
00:34:56And from Dr. Mundy's perspective, he also has had the benefit of working with NBC Productions during the Breeders' Cup telecast and what they've kind of done, you know, in terms of run ups.
00:35:06And out of that was kind of born of this, you know, how do you get a lens into the world of what the horses are doing on track, you know, irregardless of where you find them and whatever time of the day.
00:35:16And so in 2020, when starting in this effort, I began to have some conversations with our broadcast here at Keeneland about what they do with the regular broadcast cameras in the morning when they're not using them for the actual telecast.
00:35:29And so, you know, Zoe, you in particular have, you know, an appreciation for, you know, those things or glimpses and stuff that you all use to sort of highlight for spectators and patrons of the sport, the things that are happening on any given race day to help educate, you know, the public about, you know, what's going on or as you're coming up to race day.
00:35:46And you capture really unique observations about a horse in a lot of those perspectives.
00:35:51Here, you know, I began to ask the question of our broadcast team, what do you do with those cameras in the mornings?
00:35:56And, you know, most of the time they were up and they're running, but really nobody was looking at them.
00:36:00So we talked about where we could position a lot of those around the racetrack and then potentially use the opportunity to sort of look into the world that the horse is experiencing.
00:36:09They're especially loaded with weight.
00:36:11So you're really seeing them in the environment.
00:36:13And we spend a lot of time in the shed row looking at horses and doing really good workups on horses to make sure that they're safe, you know, coming out, you know, from the barn area to the racetrack.
00:36:22But oftentimes we don't really get a great chance to have this glimpse and look at how the horse is doing loaded with weight with the rider.
00:36:28And so what we began to do and what was born out of those experiences is we began to sort of recognize that we have a lot of events that go on here at Keeneland even in the mornings.
00:36:38And sometimes the broadcast team needs those cameras for other things.
00:36:41They're entertaining a live audience or they're doing things, you know, at different times of the day.
00:36:46So then it became important for us to actually develop this vet camera system that's sort of wholly owned by our equine safety team here.
00:36:53We have remote workstations around the racetrack with 18 cameras that cross articulate the racetracks here, both our main track and our training track.
00:37:02And so we use those to, you know, leverage our ability to take technology and sort of see in multiple locations.
00:37:09And then we can kind of build on a lot of our information about horses we want to understand.
00:37:13And when we do that and integrate that with the work of our clockers and our outriders and all the other people that interface with the horse,
00:37:21then we can see things within, you know, the aspects of when a horse is on those surfaces.
00:37:26So we can look back at those and actually build a study to understand how those horses are doing coming up to any individual performance.
00:37:35Stuart, one of the great advancements I think the industry has made or something that has great potential is stride safe.
00:37:42We've talked about it a lot on this podcast.
00:37:45Where do things stand now with the implementation or usage of stride safe vis-a-vis Keeneland and all of Kentucky racing?
00:37:52Yeah, I think, Bill, that's a great point, too.
00:37:54I think the wearable technologies, you know, hold a whole lot of promise for us.
00:37:59I think, you know, one of the things that I talk to a lot of people about when I came here and making the observations,
00:38:05I'm sort of struggled to get away from the rail and being at the racing office gap.
00:38:09I watch horses moving, you know, in a backdrop constantly.
00:38:14So, you know, one of the things that I appreciate there is that from a subjective standpoint,
00:38:18you're seeing the quality of movement of horses on the racetrack.
00:38:21And so one of the great tools that we're now beginning to develop and have available,
00:38:26these wearable technologies and stride safe represents that aspect of that.
00:38:30Where we're taking objective data that we collect from these accelerometers carried in the saddle towel on those horses during a race.
00:38:38And we're looking at, you know, nine different planes of movement of that horse,
00:38:41taking two to four thousand, you know, measurements every second, you know, that the horse is moving
00:38:46and then drawing a fingerprint of how that horse moves.
00:38:49It's kind of the analogy of the black box that, you know, people are familiar with from an FFA standpoint,
00:38:56you know, are those things that we're capturing in that space so that we can kind of really look and take those subjective observations
00:39:04and then translate them into objective data that we can use to analyze the quality and movement of the horse.
00:39:10And in Kentucky, what's happened is both, you know, we have multiple really, I think,
00:39:15rewarding collaborations that we share with Churchill Downs and Kentucky Downs and other racing associations
00:39:21working here to where everyone is sort of invested in this experience of using stride safe
00:39:26and these wearable technologies to where we've been building sort of across the jurisdiction of horses
00:39:31that we share amongst ourselves, a lot of really good information through a calendar year of those horses
00:39:38moving from our various racing associations competing on different surfaces
00:39:42and then kind of have this, you know, risk assessment model for how those horses are doing
00:39:47or how they might change throughout the year.
00:39:49And if you think about that in terms of what we kind of have going on in Kentucky,
00:39:53the experience that horses will have from our, you know, dirt surface here to the one that happens at Churchill Downs
00:39:59or their turf surface coming off of what has happened through a synthetic experience
00:40:04that they had at Turfway Park through the winter here
00:40:06has kind of been really an interesting opportunity for us to learn more
00:40:10and then to apply more about what we've gained from access into that's wearable technology space or stride safe.
00:40:18And, you know, to give David Lambert and Greg Packman, you know, a lot of credit,
00:40:22they do a great job of engaging with us in the racing association space and working with our horsemen.
00:40:27And then the attending veterinarians, because one of the things that I've talked to them about is they're creating a toolkit, right,
00:40:34for the horsemen and for their attending veterinarians who are really responsible for the welfare of that racehorse
00:40:39to make sure that they're doing their utmost best every time a horse sets foot on a racetrack.
00:40:45So one quick follow up question to that.
00:40:47Is it now mandatory?
00:40:49Are all horses wearing it at Keeneland when they race and when they work?
00:40:53No, they're all wearing it when they race.
00:40:55So currently the application is for every runner that competes at our meet
00:41:00will be carrying one of those sensors in the saddle towel so that so that the focus has been,
00:41:05you know, on using the technology there and then providing that as the tool
00:41:09that then can kind of give direct feedback to the to the trainers and their veterinarians.
00:41:14Wow, that's that's really cool.
00:41:16All right. So that's that's pretty much the horses.
00:41:19What can you tell me about the Graham test?
00:41:21Because when I when I first saw this, in fact, a friend of mine,
00:41:24Jane Buchanan, said you should ask Stuart about the Graham test.
00:41:28I'm like, what is the Graham test?
00:41:30She's like, well, it's about James Graham.
00:41:32I'm like, what? See if you can understand him at five in the morning.
00:41:35But yeah, that's right.
00:41:37He walked past me yesterday morning and we were sort of talking about here.
00:41:40Here he comes up the driveway, you know, at the Graham test.
00:41:43Now, you know, life's all about relationships, right?
00:41:46And so one of the ones when I first came here that was kind of below the surface
00:41:51that I didn't really realize that I had was there was,
00:41:55you know, the the U.K.
00:41:57Sports Medical Research Institute, the SMRI here in Kentucky
00:42:01has been, you know, an opportunity to sort of work on behalf
00:42:05of the advocacy of the wellness and the safety of riders here.
00:42:08And the and the U.K. SMRI group here
00:42:11has spent some time, you know, when Carl Maticola was here
00:42:15and then Scott Lepard and then, you know, that team of folks,
00:42:19you know, has continued to sort of work here.
00:42:21And there was an opportunity to do some engagement around that
00:42:25about that activity that they kind of wanted to do.
00:42:28And so they have come out and taken their team
00:42:30and come out during our race day and spent time with us,
00:42:34you know, to try to sort of learn about how the jockeys were doing.
00:42:36And the proposition there is that everything we're doing for jockey safety
00:42:40and wellness translates into the safety of our equine athletes.
00:42:43And so things like assessing how riders are doing throughout their race day.
00:42:48Kimberly Tumlin and her team came out, brought basically the aspects
00:42:52of what they do in the laboratory, you know, down there on campus
00:42:55at the University of Kentucky, in conjunction with the U.K.
00:42:58health care professionals that come here and help us on race day
00:43:02and then took those metrics and then were able to look at our riders
00:43:05and see, you know, from race one to race 11, how those riders are doing.
00:43:10And so they've had really good engagement across the rider colony here
00:43:14about participating in those activities.
00:43:17And so they come into looking at balance and reaction time.
00:43:20And, you know, all those aspects sort of translate into safety.
00:43:23And so it's been really interesting to kind of look at kind of the feedback
00:43:27that they've been able to get back from the riders and then kind of the types
00:43:31of things they've looked at.
00:43:31They've gotten a couple of really exciting grants funded.
00:43:34And then they've come out of this with this gram test that they're using.
00:43:38So it's a set of metrics that they're using around what James
00:43:41and some of his other colleagues have done in the riding colony here
00:43:44to work with the SMRI group to come up with, you know, a really serious metric
00:43:49that they can use to sort of evaluate how riders are doing throughout the race car.
00:43:53As in concussion or how are they doing?
00:43:56Can you just expound on that a little bit as in mentally or?
00:44:01Yeah, not not unlike what we kind of have, you know, in terms of the accelerometer
00:44:05data that we capture with StrideSafe, there is accelerometer data
00:44:10that they're capturing on the riders on a bungee ball, you know.
00:44:12And so they're kind of taking those riders and they're sort of crouching
00:44:15in a position like they would be riding and then looking at their balance,
00:44:19you know, on those things throughout the day
00:44:21and then testing their visual acuity and then the reaction times.
00:44:25And so through those, they're sort of taking those measurements
00:44:28on those riders actually in between races and throughout the race day.
00:44:34And then you're able to use those in a metric and then to have developed
00:44:37this gram test that's come out of those efforts.
00:44:39I was I'm just more intrigued about the grants.
00:44:42Can you fail a gram test?
00:44:43You get taken off.
00:44:45Like, yeah, I think yeah, I think it's kind of like, no, I think it's really
00:44:50that's a good question.
00:44:50And I think it's kind of like what we've talked about a little bit on,
00:44:54you know, what we're doing with StrideSafe.
00:44:55I think we're building information and learning more and more about things.
00:44:59So, you know, what I sort of hope will happen and kind of talk to Dr.
00:45:02Pete Hester, who kind of you know, that's sort of one of Dr.
00:45:06Hester's focus in terms of rider safety and health, you know,
00:45:09that he does on behalf of Kaisa.
00:45:11And so he's been here, been able to kind of have some opportunity
00:45:15to sort of look into that world a little bit and then talk about,
00:45:18you know, how those things can be used against, you know,
00:45:20things like the head check system and other things like that
00:45:23so that we can apply potentially those things that we're measuring about,
00:45:27you know, whether we would know whether or not it's safe for a rider,
00:45:30you know, in terms of continuing to compete throughout the day.
00:45:32I think when you think, too, on the aspect of journeyman riders,
00:45:35you know, people who are flying in from across the country
00:45:38that come in to ride for maybe two or three miles a day,
00:45:41you know, what is what is the effect of fatigue, you know, on those riders?
00:45:44What's the effect of travel and and the jet lag effect
00:45:47and all those other things that can kind of, you know, factor into,
00:45:51you know, how a rider, you know, wellness translates into safety.
00:45:56So, Stuart, I wanted to bring you back to another subject matter similar to this.
00:46:00We've had the synthetic surface era, which Keeneland was part of.
00:46:05The sport got away from it.
00:46:08And now it looks like the sport is kind of, you know,
00:46:09rethinking the whole idea of synthetic surfaces.
00:46:12They put one in a Gulfstream.
00:46:14The new Belmont is going to have one.
00:46:16What is your personal feelings on synthetic surfaces
00:46:19and what role will they play in the future of racing?
00:46:22Yeah, I think they're, you know, I think that experience has been really interesting.
00:46:26And I think, you know, we've learned a lot from Tim Parkin's data
00:46:29in the Equine Injury Database about, you know, looking at the impact
00:46:33that those various surfaces had and synthetics.
00:46:35While some some of our experiences have maybe been a little more limited
00:46:39in North American racing in the last, you know, 10 years than they were
00:46:42in the previous 10, we kind of continue to sort of take places
00:46:46like Turf Lake Park, Presque Isle, you know, Golden Gate, you know.
00:46:49And then now we're going to be able to kind of experience in terms of Gulfstream
00:46:52Parks experience and look at a lot of that data across a large number of starts.
00:46:57But one of the things that I find really interesting has been,
00:47:00you know, especially the racetrack here at Keeneland has been these repurposed
00:47:03dirt tracks, the, you know, one of the great strengths, I think, for,
00:47:07you know, and I learned in coming here and spending time with our track
00:47:10maintenance team and, you know, Jim Pendergast and Alfredo Loreana
00:47:14do this incredible job of managing the surface here.
00:47:17But when I spent time the first year I was here and spent,
00:47:21you know, a week or more, you know, riding around with them
00:47:23and continue to talk about the metrics that they use, they drilled into me
00:47:26that the three most important aspects about managing a dirt track
00:47:29or water, water and water.
00:47:31And so they work really hard, strive really hard to maintain the consistency of,
00:47:36you know, the components of this 19,000 tons of sand, clay and silt
00:47:40that make up this racetrack and how they keep that really tight band
00:47:44of 18 to 21 percent moisture content with a consistent cushion,
00:47:48you know, across that.
00:47:49And so you can tell by the metrics that I sort of tease out of my conversations
00:47:54with them that I see that as the industry strives to sort of have consistency
00:47:58for the musculoskeletal system that the horse experiences
00:48:02when they train and they race and how they remodel,
00:48:05you know, over those surfaces that becomes important for us
00:48:08to share those kinds of experiences and those metrics.
00:48:11And one of the things that I think's, you know, been a benefit here
00:48:14is with the vertical drainage system that still exists under this dirt surface.
00:48:18So you have the benefit of inclement weather and then, you know,
00:48:22the management of maintaining that consistent water content,
00:48:26you know, within the racetrack surface is something that becomes very predictable
00:48:29because you have both the horizontal and vertical drainage systems.
00:48:32And so putting a real focus, working, you know, with McPeterson's team,
00:48:37you know, that comes out and does a lot of evaluations on our surface.
00:48:40I still, you know, believe that these dirt surfaces repurpose
00:48:44like they've been from the synthetic era, approach what we see
00:48:48or recognize that are done with the synthetics in terms of,
00:48:52you know, those metrics we look at in terms of injury rate.
00:48:56Wow. I've got one more question for you,
00:48:58and you're at Keeneland day in, day out.
00:49:00How's that new paddock looking?
00:49:03Well, right now it's a work in progress, Zoe, but it's going to be phenomenal.
00:49:07I think it's going to be a really unique experience for a lot of the patrons,
00:49:11but also for the horses and the horsemen.
00:49:13I think when it's completed, it's going to be, you know, a real,
00:49:16you know, it's one of the things that's always been great about racing here,
00:49:19you know, is the intimate nature of people's, you know, experience with,
00:49:22you know, coming to the races at Keeneland and what they can experience
00:49:25about the saddling and the experience in the paddock under the trees
00:49:29and how close, you know, I get to work with Gatewood Bell and Ben Huffman
00:49:33and a lot of those folks to talk about what are all the aspects of that
00:49:36that you can bring together, keeping the emphasis
00:49:39and the mindset over equine safety there that sort of continues to sort of cultivate.
00:49:43I think those kinds of experiences to build on our fan base,
00:49:47because I think when this paddock is completed and it's finished,
00:49:51there are going to be so many things that are going to be resources there,
00:49:54not only for the people and the patrons that come,
00:49:56but really for the horses and the horsemen that are here.
00:49:59You know, when you think about aspects of, you know,
00:50:01the first two year old races in North America that get run and all those things,
00:50:05we want all those experiences to be, you know, really focused
00:50:08on making sure they're beneficial to to the horse.
00:50:11You know, the impact that we can have in planning on making sure
00:50:15that those are favorable experiences for the horse
00:50:17and help them build on their careers and racing,
00:50:19you know, are part of where we see opportunity we don't shy away from.
00:50:24Well, an exciting time in racing with Keeneland opening up the spring meet on Friday.
00:50:29Dr. Stuart Brown, thanks so much for joining us, being the Green Group
00:50:32guest of the week.
00:50:33Let's have a great meet at Keeneland and let's have a safe meet.
00:50:36Well, thank you. Thank you for having me.
00:50:38OK, thank you so much.
00:50:40As our Green Group guest of the week, Dr.
00:50:42Stuart Brown will receive a free one hour tax consultation
00:50:46with Lynn Green and partners at the Green Group.
00:50:48For more information on how the Green Group can help you,
00:50:53you can visit www.greenco.com.
00:51:00Are you paying too much in taxes?
00:51:02The Green Group can help.
00:51:04There's a reason the most successful owners, breeders and horsemen
00:51:07select the Green Group as their tax advisors.
00:51:09They save you money and share successful strategies.
00:51:13Over the past 40 years, the Green Group founder, Lynn Green,
00:51:17has owned and bred some of the best racehorses in the history of the sport,
00:51:21like Eclipse Award winning champions Jay Walk and Wonder Wheel.
00:51:25His DJ stable competes at the highest level
00:51:27and has received the game's most prestigious honors.
00:51:30Lynn Green's in-depth, hands on industry knowledge,
00:51:33combined with cutting edge tax saving strategies,
00:51:36has produced positive results for his clientele and has made the Green Group
00:51:40the top rated accounting and tax firm in the thoroughbred business.
00:51:44For a confidential and complimentary consultation,
00:51:47contact us at 732-634-5100
00:51:51or visit our website at www.greenco.com.
00:51:56The Green Group, proven strategies to save you taxes.
00:52:00In this week's edition of First Things First, we rewrap the tape
00:52:03and we go back in time as I caught up with owner, breeder John Sondraker
00:52:09after the chosen bronze emphatic win in the San Carlos.
00:52:18Here with one of my favorite guys, John Sondraker, a big fan of the TDN,
00:52:24the San Carlos winner, the chosen bronze.
00:52:26How are you feeling right now, John?
00:52:27I'm feeling great. When you win, you feel great.
00:52:30He's a homebred for you guys.
00:52:31Homebred, little skinny thing.
00:52:35I thought he wouldn't even run till it was light freeze, you know.
00:52:39He's just got so much heart. He just does it.
00:52:42He's now won 16 races.
00:52:44Have you ever had a horse that's won 16 races?
00:52:4616 races? Not even close.
00:52:50Maybe half that. Maybe half.
00:52:52Cowbred horse of the year twice.
00:52:55Cowbred sprinter of the year.
00:52:57Like, he's going to be the best horse you've ever had.
00:53:00Oh, no question. It's a dream come true.
00:53:02I mean, everybody would want to win the Derby or something like that.
00:53:06But I never had those kind of expectations and I never had these kind of
00:53:09expectations. You know, they exceed your expectations.
00:53:13Somebody told me I would have a horse 20 years ago
00:53:16that won 16 out of 20.
00:53:18I would have bet him a million dollars or more if I had it.
00:53:22You know, it just doesn't sound.
00:53:25Doesn't sound right, does it?
00:53:27Your trainer describes him as a cool dude.
00:53:30Hey, he walks around.
00:53:32I'm walking around the backside there and nothing bothers him.
00:53:37Tractor goes by.
00:53:40You know, or fillies go by.
00:53:43Nothing bothers that gelding.
00:53:46Just like, man, everything's cool here.
00:53:49Congratulations. Thank you. Thank you.
00:53:56Do want to remind you that Santa Anita will continue racing.
00:53:59Now we canceled last weekend.
00:54:01We will have a four day racing week this week, starting on Thursday
00:54:05with a nine race card, one o'clock post and a couple of graded stakes on the card.
00:54:10The grade three Wilshire and the grade three American
00:54:13will have racing throughout the weekend, including a super Saturday
00:54:17as the first racing tour continues with the Santa Anita Derby
00:54:22and the Santa Anita Oaks that we'll talk about in just a moment.
00:54:25It's going to be a fantastic weekend of racing.
00:54:28And on Sunday, because we postponed from last week,
00:54:31I'm going to go and find some Easter eggs, guys, that chocolate.
00:54:36Good for you, Zoe.
00:54:37All right. So let's take a look at what's coming up this weekend.
00:54:40And our team has had to do this without the past performances
00:54:43they're not out yet for the big races around the country.
00:54:46Of course, the three big preps for the Kentucky Derby,
00:54:49the Bluegrass Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial of the three.
00:54:52I think there's a little doubt that the bluegrass is the most important.
00:54:55And I think what it's going to answer is who's going to be the second choice
00:54:59in the derby as long as Sierra Lone and Dornach, one of the other wins that.
00:55:03And they're having this rematch.
00:55:05They had that great race in the Remsen stakes where Dornach won by a nose.
00:55:09He was beaten. He came back and win.
00:55:11But I thought that day, Randy, you talked about a bias at Oakland
00:55:15when Mystic Dan won.
00:55:16I thought there was a bias in New York that day.
00:55:19And I think that Dornach benefited from being on the rail.
00:55:23But they're two really nice horses.
00:55:25They've got to prove that they're good enough to beat
00:55:29excuse me, fierceness in the in the Kentucky Derby.
00:55:33But they don't have to worry about Bob Baffert.
00:55:35So one of the other Sierra Lone and Dornach
00:55:38is going to be a big deal in the Kentucky Derby.
00:55:40I'm going to pick Sierra Lone for just the reason why I mentioned
00:55:43I thought he had the did not get the best of trips in that Remsen.
00:55:46See the rematch now.
00:55:47And I'll go with Dornach.
00:55:49I'll go with Sierra Lone. What am I saying?
00:55:51All right. I'll throw a third in there.
00:55:53Just a touch. Trained by Brad Cox.
00:55:55I think it's a big three in this race.
00:55:58I think I think just a touch is, in my opinion,
00:56:01is as good a chance to win the Bluegrass as Dornach does.
00:56:05Others that are expected to run the one, two finishers in the Bataglia
00:56:08Encino, an epic ride.
00:56:10Good money. Narrowly beaten in the Tampa Bay Derby.
00:56:14I think Calumet wants to run in the spot with Chad Brown.
00:56:16Kenny McPeak and Latt Long.
00:56:18Lucas is coming back with his horse that that ran in the
00:56:23I guess it was the Jeff Ruby.
00:56:24And then Todd Pletcher expected to run Tuscan Sky,
00:56:29who was who's a perfect two for two.
00:56:32It's one it's probably the deepest field of three year olds
00:56:36that we've seen just because of the top three, really.
00:56:39I'll give Sierra Leone the advantage.
00:56:41He was flattered, I thought, by catching freedoms
00:56:44when in the Louisiana Derby.
00:56:47You know, I'm not entirely convinced
00:56:51the way Sierra Leone drops way back out of it in his races
00:56:55that that's not going to come back and haunt him.
00:56:59I I said it right after the race, and I'll say it again.
00:57:03I know he only had four published workouts.
00:57:05I know that the Fountain of Youth was a means to an end.
00:57:09I respect trainer Danny Gargan.
00:57:11I did not like Dornoch's race in the Fountain of Youth.
00:57:14The horses that were behind him, LeDombro and Frankie's Empire
00:57:18were horses that if they made the Kentucky Derby,
00:57:20were going to be 100 to one.
00:57:22And it turns out they both ran poorly in the Florida Derby,
00:57:26and they won't make the Kentucky Derby.
00:57:28I thought even under the circumstances
00:57:31that Dornoch should have won the Fountain of Youth
00:57:33more impressively than he did.
00:57:35I think just a touch will beat him in the Bluegrass Stakes.
00:57:39And I've been badly wrong in situations like this before.
00:57:43So we'll let him I'll let him beat me in there, Zoe.
00:57:47I like Sierra Leone in there.
00:57:49Well, we'll have a little bit more info on Dornoch in just a moment
00:57:52because he is our work of the week for XBTV.
00:57:55So you can have a good look at his work there.
00:57:58But it's Sierra Leone for me.
00:58:00But that's that's Saturday.
00:58:02I'm actually more intrigued with Friday with the Ashland.
00:58:05Because my favorite filly is coming back in there,
00:58:08the one that's going to give ways and means a run for her money
00:58:11in the Kentucky Oaks, and that is just FYI.
00:58:15She's got to run against Jody's Pride.
00:58:17Look, look at Randy.
00:58:20I am so looking forward to seeing her run.
00:58:23I can't tell you.
00:58:26Randy, not you're not looking forward to seeing just FYI.
00:58:30She's going to have to run a lot faster than she's ever run in her life.
00:58:34She's going to she's going to park.
00:58:37You see, we see this all the time, right?
00:58:39You see horses like just FYI and Jody's Pride who win big races.
00:58:45In this case, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile fillies.
00:58:46They ran one, two.
00:58:48And just FYI wins for Zed and Jody's Pride comes back and wins the pusher.
00:58:53And when you see horses like this that have credentials, but they run slow.
00:59:00Nine times out of ten, they come back
00:59:02and they they run back to those slow numbers.
00:59:06So we'll see if that happens here.
00:59:10The three-year-old filly division has suddenly gotten a lot tougher.
00:59:14Tarifa jumps up and runs really fast over another Brad Cox filly
00:59:19who's talented in the Fairgrounds Oaks.
00:59:21The Fantasy Torpedo Anna, they run fast.
00:59:25The Gulfstream Park Oaks, the top two in there, including Ways and Means
00:59:29with all the trouble she had, they run fast.
00:59:32I mean, they're all running buyer speed figures in the 90s.
00:59:35Just FYI is going to have to really step up her game.
00:59:38But I know there's more to horse racing than numbers.
00:59:41Can we have a winner?
00:59:42I know you've watched just FYI and you've watched her train
00:59:46and you like her physical and you like her trainer, Bill Mott, obviously.
00:59:51And you go a lot deeper with just FYI than I do.
00:59:54I will I will give you that.
00:59:56Can we have a winner?
00:59:57I sense a side bet here between you two.
00:59:59How about that?
01:00:00Yeah. What do you want to wager, Randy?
01:00:02Let's go Impel versus versus just FYI.
01:00:07Horse for horse.
01:00:08All right. And for what?
01:00:10What what are we staking here, though?
01:00:11What do you think, Zoe?
01:00:13What should we stake?
01:00:14Bragging rights for one
01:00:17and a favorite bottle of whatever you want to drink.
01:00:22OK, you go. All right.
01:00:23I'm the judge of this.
01:00:24The bet is on.
01:00:26And yeah, the action is just incredible.
01:00:29I mean, some of the horses you didn't even mention, Randy.
01:00:31Candied third in the breeders got two little fillies.
01:00:33Haven't seen her since that race.
01:00:35Leslie's Rose cost one point one five million.
01:00:39Impel, who was the horse with the big figures.
01:00:42Jody's Pride figures to be a terrific addition of the Ashland.
01:00:47And I don't know if they're going to be able to beat out Tarifa
01:00:49to be the favorite, but maybe Impel would be the favorite.
01:00:52I think if she wins this.
01:00:53What do you think, Randy?
01:00:54Impel wins this.
01:00:55Is she the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks over her stable mate?
01:00:57I would if she wins the Ashland against this field,
01:01:01I think she probably will be the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks over Tarifa,
01:01:04but it'll be close.
01:01:06What's interesting in here from a handicapping perspective.
01:01:09OK, Candied comes from the clouds.
01:01:12Standout sensations got blinkers on.
01:01:15She wants to stalk up close.
01:01:17I think Leslie's Rose wants to stalk up close.
01:01:20Alina's Forte wants a good close stalking spot.
01:01:23So does Just FYI.
01:01:25So does Impel.
01:01:26And so does Jody's Pride.
01:01:28Something's got to give.
01:01:29They can't all be in the same spot.
01:01:31Space and time.
01:01:32Physics will not allow that.
01:01:33So some of these horses are going to get shuffled back farther
01:01:37than they would like to be just based on the way they break
01:01:41and the way their race shapes up going into the first turn.
01:01:44So, you know, that's going to be very interesting to see who's the
01:01:47the odd filly out, so to speak, among the leading contenders.
01:01:51And one last going back to the bluegrass.
01:01:55As good a race as this is this year and it seems to be every single year.
01:01:58Last bluegrass winner when the Kentucky Derby strike the gold in 1991.
01:02:04Someone brought that to my attention.
01:02:06I got to be kidding me.
01:02:07I would have thought five bluegrass winners and won the Derby since then.
01:02:10But it's because some really good horses have won this race.
01:02:13OK, Santa Anita Derby on Saturday.
01:02:16Bob Baffert has won nine times, and it's no surprise
01:02:20that he's got the horses to beat.
01:02:22He's going to run Imagination and Maimon.
01:02:25Maybe wind me up.
01:02:26Maybe Winstock will know, of course, when the entries come out.
01:02:29But Zoe, this looks like it's Baffert's race to lose.
01:02:33And then we'll look forward to seeing his horses in the Preakness, I suppose.
01:02:37Yeah, Maimon and Imagination are a strong card for Baffert to hold.
01:02:42You know, there's an interesting horse in there and stronghold for Phil D'Amato.
01:02:47He didn't run a very high number, but he's a pretty good horse.
01:02:50He took down the Sunderland Derby.
01:02:52I'll be interested to see how he runs in here,
01:02:55but I do believe it is Maimon's race to lose in here.
01:02:59I really do.
01:03:01And as of what, 15 minutes ago or so through texting,
01:03:06those are the only two right now that Baffert is planning on entering,
01:03:09Maimon and Imagination.
01:03:11So wind me up, Winstock, Coach Prime.
01:03:14It looks like Bob's going to be looking for other spots for them.
01:03:18And there, I mean, Maimon and Imagination are obviously solid choices
01:03:23to be the Xacta in here with 100 points and 50 points
01:03:27that will then be vacated, along with all the other points
01:03:30that Baffert horses have been vacated from over the last few years.
01:03:35Stronghold, Tapolo, I think, is an interesting horse as well.
01:03:39He was second in the El Camino Real Derby behind endlessly.
01:03:43Obviously, that's unsynthetic.
01:03:44He'd had good dirt form before that.
01:03:47And I encourage handicappers to go back and watch the video
01:03:52of the El Camino Real Derby and the turn of foot that this horse showed
01:03:56when he took the lead at the top of the stretch
01:03:59or when he actually kicked away at the top of the stretch
01:04:01and opened up two or three links on the field in a flash.
01:04:05And you thought, boy, this horse is gone.
01:04:07And then endlessly managed to run him down.
01:04:10And then we saw one endlessly came back and did in the Jeff Ruby.
01:04:13So I think Tapolo was in there with a shot to hit the board as well
01:04:16behind Maymoon and Imagination.
01:04:19We're going to be doing this race on CNBC,
01:04:23beginning at 7 p.m.
01:04:25Eastern Time on Saturday.
01:04:28All right, so let's turn our attention to New York
01:04:30where the Wood Memorial is part of the card.
01:04:32Again, a race that has just not produced Kentucky Derby winners.
01:04:36No horse that won the Wood Memorial has come back to win the Kentucky Derby
01:04:40since Fusiage Pegasus in 2000.
01:04:42Having said that, though, Funnyside did run in the Wood Memorial,
01:04:46was second or third, but came back, of course, to win the Kentucky Derby.
01:04:50There's as many as 17 horses possibly going to enter the race.
01:04:54Means a couple will be excluded.
01:04:55I believe they can only run 14 and deterministic.
01:04:59And besides him, I don't see anybody to really get excited about.
01:05:02But, you know, he's he he proved a lot in the Gotham
01:05:06winning that race off a layoff and just one maiden run back at Saratoga.
01:05:10I assume he'll be a pretty solid favorite in there.
01:05:13And will he break the Wood Memorial jinx?
01:05:16Well, if he wins, we'll find out.
01:05:18But Randy, outside of him, I mean, who else in here would you say is like,
01:05:22oh, I really want to see blank run in the Wood Memorial
01:05:25because I'm interested in them in the Kentucky Derby.
01:05:29I love this little horse, El Grande.
01:05:31Oh, it was such a hard trying horse.
01:05:33But as far as a, you know, Kentucky Derby type horse,
01:05:37I think that's probably a bridge too far.
01:05:41You know, Uncle Heavy won the Withers, the Pennsylvania Bread.
01:05:43But it's hard to get excited.
01:05:45I, I totally agree with you.
01:05:46BU ran a big number when he broke his maiden last time out of Gulfstream Park.
01:05:51But, you know, before that, he had been kind of disappointing.
01:05:55Really, the only horse that I'm that interested in seeing run, I agree,
01:05:59would be deterministic, who's a perfect two for two.
01:06:03Yes, in 2003, Funnyside was second to Empire Maker, a narrow second,
01:06:08a narrowly beaten second, although Empire Maker was under a double Nelson.
01:06:12And that race is that came to the wire from Jerry Bailey.
01:06:15And that's the last horse that has even run in the Wood Memorial
01:06:20that came back to win the Kentucky Derby.
01:06:22I don't have the numbers right in front of me.
01:06:25I'll have them on Kentucky Derby weekend.
01:06:27But since 2003, I want to say it's something like, you know,
01:06:31oh, for 80 something horses coming out of the Wood Memorial
01:06:35running in the Kentucky Derby.
01:06:37It's a it's a high number.
01:06:38Yeah. Wow. That's a big number.
01:06:40It's deterministic for me.
01:06:42When you take a look at them in the paddock,
01:06:44he'll look like a man against boys in the paddock.
01:06:46He's just a big, beautiful looking horse.
01:06:50Society man. I mean, it's basically deterministic.
01:06:53And a lot of horses that have just broken their maidens in there.
01:06:56It's going to be a question of who gets a good trip.
01:06:58We've already seen that deterministic doesn't need a good trip.
01:07:02He makes his own trip wherever he sits in the race.
01:07:05He can overcome adversity.
01:07:06So we'll see if he wins it.
01:07:09I think he does. He's the most obvious horse.
01:07:11But, you know, in big fields, anything can happen.
01:07:14We've seen this time and time again.
01:07:15That's 14 runners. It's a lot.
01:07:19The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by XBTV.
01:07:22Now, Randy, pay attention and don't talk this time.
01:07:25The XBTV Work of the Week is Dornach.
01:07:29Seen working here for furlongs in 47 and 1
01:07:32for our recent Writer's Room podcast guest, Danny Gargan.
01:07:36Now, his rider is in the black sleeves on the outside.
01:07:39That's Ringy Dingy, a filly on the inside.
01:07:41I believe she's a half to dialed in.
01:07:43Dornach, the most recent winner of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth,
01:07:47will be heading to Saturday's Bluegrass at Keeneland.
01:07:50You can see him square up against the other horse.
01:07:53He's not the most flashiest workhorse in the morning or the afternoon,
01:07:57but he gets things done.
01:07:59And we look forward to seeing him on Saturday's Bluegrass.
01:08:05All the three.
01:08:06All the three.
01:08:07All the three.
01:08:08All the three.
01:08:09All the three.
01:08:10All the three.
01:08:11All the three.
01:08:12All the three.
01:08:13All the three.
01:08:14All the three.
01:08:15All the three.
01:08:16All the three.
01:08:17All the three.
01:08:18All the three.
01:08:19All the three.
01:08:20All the three.
01:08:21All the three.
01:08:22All the three.
01:08:23All the three.
01:08:24All the three.
01:08:25All the three.
01:08:26All the three.
01:08:27All the three.
01:08:28All the three.
01:08:29All the three.
01:08:30All the three.
01:08:31All the three.
01:08:32All the three.
01:08:33All the three.
01:08:34All the three.
01:08:35All the thrills.
01:08:36Fraction of the bills.
01:08:43Experience the power of the partnership.
01:08:48Change your life, make new friends,
01:08:50and compete at the highest level of Thoroughbred racing.
01:08:56West Point Thoroughbreds, the gold standard in racing partnerships.
01:08:59Visit westpointtb.com.
01:09:03The TD and Writer's Room is also brought to you by West Point Thoroughbreds.
01:09:07As West Point is gearing up for OBS April, the two-year-old sale,
01:09:11they had a nice distraction Saturday on the Florida Derby Undercard.
01:09:15How about a grade two winning distraction?
01:09:17That would be the six-year-old gelding,
01:09:19Cortez, who got up just in time to win the Pan American under Joel Rosario.
01:09:24It was Cortez's first race for West Point Partners and his first race in the U.S.
01:09:29Cortez was formerly owned by the Wertheimer Brothers and trained by Andre Favre.
01:09:33He was entered last fall in the Arcana Arc sale.
01:09:36Trainer Christophe Clement identified him as a U.S. racing prospect.
01:09:40And just like that, the West Point Partners were vaulted into the world of instant camaraderie.
01:09:45If it sounds like something you'd be interested in,
01:09:47you can learn more at www.westpointtb.com.
01:09:53Let's wrap on this week's edition of the TDN Writer's Room podcast.
01:09:57I want to thank my partners, Randy Moss and Zoe Cadman,
01:10:00our Green Group Guests of the Week, Dr. Stuart Brown from Keeneland,
01:10:03and Katie Petruniak, Anthony LaRocca, they're our producers,
01:10:06and our editors, Aaliyah LaRocca and Nathan Wilkinson.
01:10:09Should be a great weekend of racing.
01:10:11We'll be back next week to fill you in on everything that happened.
01:10:14So the four of us will be back next week.
01:10:16Randy, Zoe, myself, and Lucy.
01:10:44.