Thursday afternoon forecast 02/11/23
02 November - National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern
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00:00Hi there. Storm Ciarán is now moving on. The worst of the weather is now easing
00:05but it has been, in places, a very lively night. Let's take a look at how the
00:09rainfall radar evolved over the last day or so. This is Wednesday afternoon, the
00:15first signs of the storm coming into the southwest there. Heavy and persistent
00:18rain and a sudden increase in the winds with some very lively scenes across
00:23southern and southwestern parts of the UK. Now, not everyone was affected by the
00:28storm. We saw the low-pressure centre pass across southern parts of the UK and
00:33as that happened, winds really dropped out across many southern parts through
00:38the night. With the strongest of the winds on the forward side of it, running
00:42through the southeast and, more especially, on the rear side of the storm
00:46and it was at this time, 5 a.m., that we saw the strongest winds across the Silly
00:51Isles, western parts of Cornwall with gusts into the 70s of miles an hour, 77
00:55there for St. Mary's Airport and for Jersey, that's when the winds peaked at
01:0093 miles an hour. That followed a night in the Channel Islands where we saw
01:05significant thunderstorms and very large hail. So, no surprise with those kinds of
01:11wind speeds and the hail, we've seen such devastating scenes in the Channel
01:16Islands as we've started Thursday. Northern France also subject to
01:20hurricane-force winds with gusts in excess of 100 miles an hour in places
01:25so it was English Channel coasts and the Channel Islands as well as northern
01:30France where we saw the worst of the effects of Storm Ciarán and the
01:35strongest winds there during the morning, pushing eastwards to bring a gust of 78
01:40miles an hour, Langdon Bay in Kent. But further north across the UK, well, although
01:45we've seen spells of rain for England and Wales, winds haven't been as strong
01:48and for Scotland and Northern Ireland, largely avoiding the worst of the
01:52impacts, although it has been very windy for the Northern Isles. Then into the
01:57rest of Thursday, we're still battling with areas of rain and there are still
02:01warnings in force for wind and rain but the strongest wind gusts are easing, 50
02:06perhaps 60 miles an hour around the south coast for a time before that comes
02:09down and the spells of rain falling onto saturated ground could cause further
02:13impacts, especially for eastern Scotland, northeast England, parts of Wales, the
02:17south and southwest, so further river response possible, further localised
02:22flooding during the rest of Thursday, not quite out of the woods yet but by
02:26this stage, the circulation there indicates the position of Storm Ciarán
02:30into the North Sea as a weakening feature and once again, western Scotland,
02:35northern Ireland, faring best for dry and largely bright weather. 9 or 10
02:40Celsius here, 10 to 13 Celsius elsewhere, not feeling very pleasant I suspect with
02:46the spells of heavy rain moving through and gusty winds. Into the evening, it's
02:51slow improvements with further persistent rain likely for the north and
02:56the east of Scotland, parts of northern and eastern England as well, turning
03:00increasingly showery and we've got further showers pushing back into
03:03Northern Ireland, parts of Wales and the southwest, in between some clear spells
03:06and where we've got a bit of shelter from the winds across some central
03:11and southern parts of the UK, temperatures will dip into the mid single
03:15figures, so a fresh start to Friday here but actually that's where the
03:19sunshine will be at its most prevalent, further showers feeding into parts of
03:25Wales and the southwest for a time as well as some of these English Channel
03:28coasts, nowhere near as windy as we started Thursday and some heavy
03:32downpours for Northern Ireland, western Scotland also seeing showers but the
03:35more persistent rain will continue there across eastern Scotland, parts of
03:38northeast England, a lot of cloud cover and quite a strong breeze blowing as
03:43well but again nothing compared to what we've seen in places as we started
03:48Thursday, so a blustery showery day on Friday but nothing particularly
03:52exceptional and it's going to feel on the cool side with temperatures reaching
03:5611 to 13 Celsius. We continue to see those slow improvements through Friday
04:03with the showers becoming a little bit more scattered and the longer spells of
04:08rain turning more showery but we keep a lot of cloud cover, we keep a blustery
04:12breeze into Friday night and we keep some showers going towards the northwest,
04:16best of any clear spells towards the southeast, if I step out the way you can
04:19see the next band of rain moving in first thing Saturday, another wet and
04:24breezy spell but nothing compared to what we've seen over the last few days,
04:29that clears to showers for the rest of the weekend, so we're back to a mix of
04:34weather over the next few days but the storminess thankfully easing for now.