Week Ahead – a very different week of weather 15/02/21
A much milder – and wetter – week of weather to come. Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the forecast for the week ahead.
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00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. And it's a very different
00:05week ahead for the UK. Much milder, it will often be windy and there'll be rain at times.
00:11Not snow, rain at times. Just to give you an idea of how much the weather has changed.
00:17These were the maximum temperatures last Saturday, many places staying below freezing. Fast forward
00:23to next Saturday, watch those numbers change. Possibility of highs up to 17 Celsius in the
00:30south east. And across Scotland, double figures. So a remarkably different week ahead. Whilst
00:37temperatures throughout much of the working week won't get to as much as 17 Celsius, we
00:42do have something we've not seen much of lately. Mild south westerlies as we begin the week.
00:48And another thing we've not seen much of recently, low pressure coming in from the
00:53west picked up by an active jet stream. And that jet stream deepening this area of low
00:58pressure by the start of Tuesday. Weather fronts crossing the UK as well. The Titus
01:02Isobar is there in the north west. That's where the windiest weather will be at the
01:05risk of gales for western Scotland, Irish Sea coasts 50, perhaps 60 miles an hour or
01:10more for western Scotland. So outbreaks of rain though crossing much of England and Wales
01:15first thing and then slow to clear in the south east during the middle part of the
01:19day. Showers follow, some heavy downpours along with those blustery winds and some bright
01:26spells in between. But of course we've got the south westerly winds. It's not going to
01:29be cold. It's not going to be quite as mild though as Monday. We're looking at 10 to 12
01:35Celsius generally. Into Tuesday night and another area of low pressure swiftly follows
01:40on and this once again will bring spells of rain and strengthening winds by the start
01:45of Wednesday. So Wednesday begins with wet weather crossing much of the UK, that clearing
01:51into the North Sea. And then brighter and drier for a time before more rain pushes into
01:56southern areas by the afternoon. Some heavy rain at times, especially in the south west.
02:02And there'll be outbreaks of mountain snow I think for central Scotland because it's
02:06going to be colder here. Temperatures back to average essentially and really it's above
02:10three or four hundred metres where we'd like to see that snow. More rain to come through
02:14on Thursday and again some mountain snow for Scotland. That rain once more slow to clear
02:20from the east. Brighter, more showery conditions following and again blustery winds with quite
02:26gusty conditions at times. Temperatures 9 to 13 in the south, closer to average further
02:31north where like I say we've got that mountain snow. By Friday though things are going to
02:37start to change once again. We're going to see even milder air arrive on this south west.
02:42These are marked by this warm front but that warm front will contain some very wet weather.
02:48Some uncertainties at the moment on the exact location of the heaviest rain on Friday. It
02:53looks likely certainly across western parts of the UK, south west England, south Wales
02:57but also the potential there for western Scotland. The brighter colours indicating that and some
03:01uncertainty on the timing of the rain. But Friday especially in the west looks like a
03:06wet and windy day but you can see the temperatures nudging upwards despite the unsettled weather.
03:12The far north and the far north east staying dry until much later on. Now the uncertainties
03:17in terms of Friday's rainfall stem from the position or the exact shape of the jet stream
03:22by Friday. You can see it's dipping quite far to the south in the mid Atlantic and that
03:27sends up a southerly or south westerly airflow across the UK. But if this is tilted in a
03:33slightly different position then the rain will be kept further west through Friday and
03:39warmer air will spread across much of the south east in particular by Sunday. So those
03:45small differences in the shape of the jet stream could result in quite different conditions
03:50in a few places on Friday and Saturday. But either way as we head into the weekend the
03:56main themes are that we'll see some rain, mainly it will be in the north and the west,
04:00otherwise a lot of fine weather with some sunshine and it will become even milder with,
04:05like I said earlier, the possibility of 17 Celsius in places by Saturday. Follow us on
04:10social media, we'll keep you updated with all the latest on these channels. Bye bye.