Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00:00They say, the harder the work, the greater the reward.
00:00:21This is our life's work.
00:00:24Good afternoon, or almost good evening.
00:00:29It's 527, Tuesday, September 20th, so I'm all thrown off by the date and the time.
00:00:34This is the TDN Writer's Room, presented by Keeneland.
00:00:36My name is Joe Bianca, I'm the Associate Editor of the Thoroughbred Daily News.
00:00:40And what do you have to say about my Jets this week, Bill?
00:00:44Go Jets!
00:00:46But here's what I have to say.
00:00:47They're not as good as the Giants, right?
00:00:482-0, how about that?
00:00:50But Joe, look, I'm actually, since I don't care that much about football, and I don't
00:00:53like the Patriots, I'll live vicariously through you.
00:00:56Go gangrene.
00:00:59And I'm Randy Moss with NBC Sports, along with Lucy, it's hard to tell, but that is
00:01:02a dog behind me on the couch, coming to you from Minnesota, where the Kirk Cousins for
00:01:07Governor signs have now come down.
00:01:09Listen, as long as you keep him out of prime time, he's your guy.
00:01:14Problem is, all those playoff games, those are going to be on national TV too.
00:01:19The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:01:21If you haven't noticed, the Keeneland September sale is going on right now.
00:01:25It's been record-breaking.
00:01:26It's been million-dollar horse after million-dollar horse.
00:01:28They already surpassed the gross in 2021 yesterday with several days still to come.
00:01:33It runs through this Saturday, September 24th, so still in time to get involved.
00:01:38Lots of good horses still up for bidding, so go get involved at Keeneland.
00:01:43This weekend was the big weekend, the big Saturday at Woodbine, where they had three
00:01:47grade one races, which were all Breeders' Cup winning year-end races, the Woodbine Mile
00:01:51and the Talma and the Summer Stakes.
00:01:53And I'm getting deja vu, guys, because we had this conversation last year when Charlie
00:01:58Appleby came through and swept all of those races.
00:02:01He didn't quite sweep this year.
00:02:03He got two out of the four.
00:02:05He got the Woodbine Mile with Modern Games, and he also had the Summer with Mysterious
00:02:10Night.
00:02:11Modern Games ran the best race of any turf horse in America this year.
00:02:14I don't think that's up for debate.
00:02:15He got 112 buyer.
00:02:17He ran in the best race of his career.
00:02:18His European form did not suggest that that kind of performance was coming, but he was
00:02:23devastating in that race, and I got to think he's going to be a pretty heavy favorite
00:02:26now in the Breeders' Cup Mile.
00:02:28The two-year-old looked pretty good for him as well.
00:02:30Also one-off.
00:02:31And also Charlie Appleby won the Jockey Club Derby at Belmont at Aqueduct, Belmont at the
00:02:36Big A, BAQ, with Nations Pride, who's also a very nice three-year-old.
00:02:41What do you guys think of the Charlie Appleby freight train this weekend?
00:02:43Yeah, I mean, Appleby was the story, but we're not surprised that he was the story.
00:02:47Matter of fact, we would have been surprised if he didn't come in and devastate everything.
00:02:51Some of these statistics are unbelievable.
00:02:54At Woodbine, in his career, he's run nine horses.
00:02:59Seven of them have won.
00:03:01All seven are grade one winners.
00:03:04Shows up with nine horses, comes away with seven grade one winners.
00:03:08Overall, the last two years, he's 14 for 28, that's 50% in his career running in North
00:03:14America, 19 for 43 with 44%.
00:03:18Not only that, you nailed it with Modern Games, who's claim to fame was that he was the winner
00:03:24of the messed up race where he was scratched at the gate, and it wasn't scratched, and
00:03:27then it was scratched, then it wasn't scratched, and everybody was mad about it.
00:03:31But if you, other than flight line, who is the biggest lock of Breeders' Cup Saturday,
00:03:38you would have to say right now it is Modern Games.
00:03:40And I agree with you.
00:03:41I tried to beat him in that race, even despite the Appleby mistake.
00:03:45I just thought his form in Europe this year was okay.
00:03:47I know he ran second last time out to Bayid, who was the best turf horse in the world,
00:03:52but he was well beaten.
00:03:54He hadn't shown, he hadn't really, to me, run back to his Breeders' Cup performance
00:03:58or hasn't been consistently running back to it.
00:04:00He comes into the Breeders' Cup mile now as the absolute horse to beat by a mile over.
00:04:06I think who else is going to come from Europe, we don't really know, but I can't even at
00:04:10this point think of anybody in the US that would even be able to warm this horse up.
00:04:14What Appleby is doing is amazing because it's one thing to see guys win 40%, 35%, 50%.
00:04:20This guy's doing it with grade one races and grade one horses only.
00:04:24He's not winning the fourth race at Saratoga on a Thursday, which is a maiden 25,
00:04:28non-winners of three lifetime.
00:04:30Just absolutely amazing statistics for a guy who, when he comes here, doesn't always bring
00:04:36his first string horses, but boy, he knows where to place them and he knows absolutely
00:04:41the right horses to bring in.
00:04:43I can't wait to see Modern Games come back in the Woodbine mile.
00:04:47Mysterious Knight wins the summer stakes.
00:04:49That horse will obviously be the favorite in the grade one Breeders' Cup juvenile turf.
00:04:53And then Nation's Pride wins the Jockey Club Derby.
00:04:56He's probably the least of the three only because he's been winning against three-year-olds
00:05:00and is going to have to face older horses when he gets into the Breeders' Cup.
00:05:03But right now, I wouldn't count any Appleby horse out under any circumstances.
00:05:08Just an amazing story with this guy.
00:05:10It's known over the last couple of years.
00:05:12Oh, the Appleby juggernaut is just unbelievable.
00:05:15I love the race call at Woodbine, right?
00:05:17As Modern Games is coming to the wire, the race caller says,
00:05:20and this time you can cash your ticket.
00:05:22I thought that was a nice touch.
00:05:25The 112 buyer speed figure was the highest figure so far for any turf horse in America.
00:05:33Just happens to be that I make the Woodbine buyer speed figures, and I can tell you that
00:05:38it was an absolute slam dunk.
00:05:39There was no doubt at all.
00:05:41It was an easy speed figure to make.
00:05:43And one of the things that is interesting to me is that, yeah, he was beaten by Bayid
00:05:49in his most recent start, the Sussex at Goodwood in late July.
00:05:53He was beaten a length and three quarters.
00:05:55But that was Bayid's least impressive race so far this year.
00:06:00It was his lowest time form figure.
00:06:02He got a 128 time form figure.
00:06:04It's his only start this year out of his four races, which he's run lower than a 130.
00:06:09So he really wasn't the best Bayid that we've seen.
00:06:14So, I mean, my gosh, to think that Modern Games could not be able to beat that Bayid
00:06:19and come over here and dominate our horses the way he did just really makes you look
00:06:24forward to seeing what this horse can do going forward.
00:06:27As far as the other American horses out there, there's only one so far that's run a number
00:06:33that's anywhere close to that.
00:06:34Count, again, was very impressive in the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita in late May.
00:06:40He ran a 108 buyer speed figure in that one.
00:06:45So, so far, he would be about the only one numbers-wise that could even be in the Modern
00:06:50Games ballpark.
00:06:52I looked at the early betting.
00:06:54It's kind of hard to find a Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf antipost odds, but Mysterious
00:06:59Knight is, as you would expect, the favorite right now over mostly Aiden O'Brien-trained
00:07:05horses over there.
00:07:06Nations Pride, I didn't think he beat much in there.
00:07:11It was a short field.
00:07:13Todd Pletcher chose to back Annapolis down from a mile and three-sixteenths to the Saranac
00:07:19at a mile and one-sixteenth instead of going up in a mile and a half to take on Nations
00:07:25Pride there.
00:07:26So it was pretty much a cakewalk.
00:07:28He is not the favorite right now in the early betting, the betting lines for the Breeders'
00:07:34Cup Turf.
00:07:34That would be a horse called Luxembourg, who is trained by Aiden O'Brien.
00:07:39He's one of those Coolmore horses.
00:07:41That's five for six lifetime and coming off a win in the Irish Champion States.
00:07:45But that doesn't even count Yabir, who's had a little bit of a minor setback, the defending
00:07:50champ in the turf, and hopefully he can make it back.
00:07:52So it looks like the Europeans, not just Appleby's but others, are pretty well set right now
00:07:57looking ahead to the Breeders' Cup.
00:07:59Hey, Randy, I'm curious, where do you find these odds?
00:08:01Because I look around a lot and I can't necessarily—I can find Breeders' Cup classic
00:08:06anti-post odds, but some of these sort of second, more not-so-high-profile Breeders'
00:08:12Cup races, where is this information available?
00:08:14It's interesting.
00:08:14Some of the sites, unfortunately, lock you out over here in the United States.
00:08:18But OddsChecker is a very nice resource to look at what they refer to as anti-post
00:08:27betting for the Breeders' Cup and some other big races.
00:08:31Okay, good to know.
00:08:32That's what I use, too.
00:08:33You can also use that for—I've seen OddsChecker for presidential elections, as well, on presidential
00:08:40candidates.
00:08:41Yeah, so I was checking that a lot during the wee hours of November 4th, 2020.
00:08:46But yeah, that's definitely a good resource.
00:08:49You know, the thing that Modern Games' performance, as great as it was, made me think—it made
00:08:53me have a little bit of longing to see Bayid in the States.
00:08:58Like, I want to see him come and run the Breeders' Cup mile.
00:09:00He's obviously not going to do that.
00:09:02That, to me, is the kind of leftover feeling from how good Modern Games was, that if he's
00:09:07that good, what would Bayid do if he came here and ran the Breeders' Cup mile?
00:09:10But obviously, we're not going to get to see that.
00:09:12But I wanted to mention a couple other races before we wrap up.
00:09:14We have the two-year-old races.
00:09:16These are the first two-turn rated stakes for two-year-olds this year on dirt in America
00:09:22with the Iroquois and the Pocahontas at Churchill Downs.
00:09:25And it was the story of—you know, I think it's a story with these races a lot, that
00:09:29people go crazy for these horses who have at least one big figure at Saratoga, and they
00:09:34crush them down to odds on—like, I remember it happened with Stellar Tap, who was that
00:09:37horse who got Steve Asmussen's record-breaking win, and that horse was like fourth or fifth
00:09:41at odds on.
00:09:42This year, it was Echo again in the Iroquois, was 3-5, made an early move into somewhat
00:09:49fast pace, but really just had nothing in the stretch, and Curly Jack won at 10-1 over
00:09:53a 54-1 shot in that race.
00:09:57And then the Pocahontas, the even money favorite was Grand Love, who was another impressive
00:10:02debut winner at Saratoga.
00:10:03But she got cooked a little bit on the pace and lost the fun and feisty.
00:10:06It wasn't a huge price.
00:10:08It was 6-1, but came from way back to win for Ken McPeak and Julian Lepereux.
00:10:13So she's a little bit of an interesting horse, especially stretching out.
00:10:16But, you know, I just kind of—the lesson of those races over the years is that people
00:10:20just go nuts for these one-race horses, one-race two-year-olds, and then they end up more often
00:10:26than not disappointing, especially when they're stretching out to two turns for the first
00:10:30time.
00:10:30I thought that that was noteworthy and something to remember for those races in the future.
00:10:35We had the closing weekend at Kentucky Downs.
00:10:38Nothing really jumped out that much over there.
00:10:42But I also wanted to shout out the sponsors.
00:10:44Green Group, Len and John Green, who had at Monmouth a $500,000 two-year-old race, the
00:10:49Now Now Now Stakes.
00:10:50Webslinger, Constitution Sun won for Mark Cassie and Dylan Davis.
00:10:55I can't believe that race is $500,000.
00:10:57That's a coup right there because it's a restricted, non-graded two-year-old race.
00:11:01I guess they had to do that a little bit to compete with the Kentucky Downs races, but
00:11:05you compare it to the rest of the Monmouth purse structure and those stakes races, it
00:11:09really sticks out like a sore thumb.
00:11:10But shout out to Len and everybody at the Green Group and DJ Staples for that win.
00:11:14So it was a nice weekend of racing.
00:11:15We're going to spin it forward.
00:11:16We got Pennsylvania Derby weekend this coming up.
00:11:19Pennsylvania Derby and the Cotillioner this Saturday.
00:11:21We're going to get to that later on in our weekend preview.
00:11:23And after this break, we're going to talk to Randy, the chief complainer about the times
00:11:29and the issues with timing races in America.
00:11:32Rightfully so.
00:11:32Rightfully so, the chief complainer.
00:11:34We're going to talk to him about that after this break.
00:11:37TDN Writers Room is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:11:39We talked to Tony Lacy a little bit earlier.
00:11:41It's obviously been a banner sale for Keeneland.
00:11:44You can expect more great results the rest of the week.
00:11:47But even just so far, they've already beaten the 2021 gross, as I've mentioned earlier.
00:11:51Some stats through book three.
00:11:53The average is $264,000, 10.67% higher than at this point in the sale last year.
00:12:00Median of $200,000 is 11.11% higher than in 2021.
00:12:05On Monday, a candy ride sold for $600,000 and the average was just under $100,000.
00:12:12Still lots of good value to be found now in book four.
00:12:14And through the rest of the sale, as I said, it goes through Saturday, September 24th.
00:12:18Still time to get involved.
00:12:20You can check out the rest of the catalog at theworldseerlingsale.com.
00:12:23We'll be right back after this message from Keeneland.
00:12:27When the thoroughbred world descends upon Lexington this November,
00:12:31there is one place you need to be.
00:12:33The place where history comes alive with every championship victory.
00:12:40The place where the future is built with the fall of a gavel.
00:12:44The place that exists to be the heart of this industry.
00:12:48The center of it all.
00:12:50Home to the November breeding stock sale and the 2022 Breeders' Cup, Keeneland.
00:13:04Echotown.
00:13:07It's Echotown for Joe Palomo.
00:13:10And Echotown breaks the wave.
00:13:12And Echotown is drawing away in the stretch.
00:13:15Echotown wins the Alan Turkin Stakes.
00:13:18A sire line so prolific it repeats itself.
00:13:23Echotown.
00:13:28The TDN Writers Room was brought to you by Coolmore.
00:13:30Justify had two winners on Saturday.
00:13:32How lovely.
00:13:33It was Justify's first full.
00:13:34Broke her maiden at Pimlico and then Gandolfini.
00:13:37Named after, of course, the great late actor James Gandolfini.
00:13:40Won on debut by five lengths.
00:13:42Hello, Salamitos.
00:13:43Shouldn't say that.
00:13:44I don't know for a fact that's named after Tony Soprano, but I'm guessing.
00:13:47Justify is now the sire of 14 winners.
00:13:50Led by four stakes winners, which I believe is the most among two-year-olds this year.
00:13:54I think he has the most two-year-old stakes winners.
00:13:56Practical Joke had a maiden special weight trifecta at Monmouth on Saturday.
00:14:00When Sheetah Booty, I'm going to be careful saying that one,
00:14:03won by six and a half lengths over Spouty's Girl and Three Carrots.
00:14:06All three sired by Practical Joke.
00:14:08Second crop sire, Practical Joke, is the sire of 62 winners in 2022, including three stakes winners.
00:14:14Coolmore Sires are making headlines in the sales ring as well at Keeneland September.
00:14:18Justify has had two million-dollar yearlings so far.
00:14:21Fellow Triple Crown winner, American Pharaoh, had two yearlings.
00:14:24Sell for over $700,000.
00:14:26And Uncle Mo, always plugging along at the top of these lists,
00:14:30has had five yearlings.
00:14:31Sell for over half a million, led by a pair of $600,000 colts.
00:14:36All right, tease this before the break.
00:14:38This has to drive Randy Moss crazy because he is a figure maker, as he mentioned before.
00:14:42We've talked to him about it before when he was a guest on the show.
00:14:45Now he's a co-host.
00:14:46And the problem has gotten even worse over that time where we cannot seem to
00:14:52properly time races in America.
00:14:54Bill brings this up a lot.
00:14:55The Saratoga Derby, which still does not have a speed figure, as far as I know.
00:15:00Still doesn't have a time.
00:15:01The time does not exist.
00:15:04There's no time.
00:15:05Yes.
00:15:06Yeah, I know.
00:15:06And it's not the only race.
00:15:07If you, especially in New York, if you look at a lot of the past performances,
00:15:10you'll see hand-timed a lot.
00:15:12Randy, why is this problem getting worse and not better?
00:15:15Well, in some cases, it's getting better.
00:15:18But there's a lot to unpack here, and I'll do it quickly.
00:15:22The Saratoga Derby, for example.
00:15:25The New York Racing Association has requested that Equibase not publish a time
00:15:31unless it is endorsed and accepted by Naira.
00:15:36So it is not Equibase.
00:15:37It is Naira that is dragging its feet and not okaying what the video timing people
00:15:45have come up with, which is an accurate time for the Saratoga Derby.
00:15:49And in the case of buyer speed figures, because of the way our system, it's being changed.
00:15:54But right now, according to the way our system is, we can't do a buyer speed figure
00:15:58for a race that has no published final time.
00:16:01So that has been very, very frustrating.
00:16:05As far as the epidemic of hand timing, there are a couple of things at play here.
00:16:11First of all, the beam system that is in effect at most racetracks in America
00:16:17is fairly low maintenance.
00:16:19It doesn't require a whole lot every year to keep it going.
00:16:22But occasionally, it does need some new parts, and it needs some tweaking here and there.
00:16:27And during COVID, some of those parts, because of the supply chain problems that COVID created,
00:16:34were very difficult to get from China and elsewhere.
00:16:37And so there was a parts shortage that if you go online, you'll find out that it has
00:16:44begun to alleviate itself a little bit.
00:16:47But there were some racetracks that were not able to secure some of the parts that they wanted.
00:16:54Also, because of COVID, there's been a labor crisis in America.
00:16:58And those beam timing systems require skilled operators.
00:17:03And I know Naira was having some problems at one point last summer and last fall at Saratoga,
00:17:09and then after that at Belmont Park, with some timing as it related to the operator
00:17:15of the American teletymer system.
00:17:17You have to know when to activate the beams, exactly how to do it.
00:17:22And there is some skill involved.
00:17:25And there were some mistakes made that led to some bad times.
00:17:29The other issue right now in thoroughbred racing that we've talked about a lot
00:17:33is the GMAX issue, the GPS timing of races.
00:17:40What Equibase has done a very good job of is these racetracks that converted to the GMAX
00:17:47GPS timing that turned out to be a disaster because the timing was so inaccurate.
00:17:53Equibase has come up with portable wireless beams to use for the final times at those
00:18:01racetracks, such as Delmar and Woodbine, some of the major racetracks that switched to GMAX.
00:18:07So the final times for those races are now accurate, but unfortunately, the fractional
00:18:15times are not.
00:18:17For example, last year in the Breeders' Cup, the Breeders' Cup Classic and that supersonic
00:18:22paced Breeders' Cup Distaff, fractions were wrong.
00:18:27The Distaff was a fast pace, but not nearly as fast as the published times made it to be.
00:18:34The Pacific Classic this year with Flightline, the fractional times were wrong.
00:18:38Earlier, the Shared Belief Stakes that day, the fractional times were wrong.
00:18:43So tracks out there that have a working beam system that's providing accurate fractional
00:18:49and final times, do not succumb to the sales pitch or the temptation to change to GMAX
00:18:57because you'll still have your accurate final times, but the way it stands right now, your
00:19:01But the way it stands right now, your fractional times will be considerably less accurate.
00:19:08Randy, it was interesting.
00:19:10I'm not criticizing you because nobody has been more outspoken about this than you have,
00:19:15but you gave a litany of excuses that I'm sure you've heard from people in the industry
00:19:20about why they're not doing a better job.
00:19:23The excuses are inexcusable.
00:19:25Right.
00:19:25It's 2022 and we're doing a poor job of timing races than we did in 1952.
00:19:32How is that possible?
00:19:34The sport wants to be treated as a major league sport, as a mainstream sport.
00:19:39And then you have things like this.
00:19:41Could you imagine an Olympic event?
00:19:42Usain Bolt goes out and runs whatever distance he's running, wins a gold medal.
00:19:47And then afterwards, someone says, but what was the time of the race?
00:19:50And the Olympic Committee says, well, we don't really know.
00:19:53We'll get back to you.
00:19:54I mean, that would make them a laughingstock and the subject of so much ridicule.
00:20:01I don't know what the answers are, but it's not my job to come up with the answers.
00:20:06This is inexcusable.
00:20:07And it does seem that the problem is getting worse.
00:20:10You can't pick up a racing form and go through a card where you don't see
00:20:1315 races in the past performances where it says hand time.
00:20:16I mean, somebody needs to get their you know what together here and fix this.
00:20:20You know, the bears depend on these times, even, you know, the breeding industry,
00:20:24the racing industry, everybody depends on accurate times.
00:20:27And it's in 2022.
00:20:30We haven't figured out how to time races.
00:20:32It's just it's astounding to me that this problem persists.
00:20:38And, you know, in print, you and I, I wrote and you talked and we beat up on GMAX pretty good.
00:20:44And apparently it deserved it.
00:20:45But when I see stuff like the Saratoga Derby example,
00:20:49that's not GMAX's fault.
00:20:51Naira is Saratoga is not a GMAX track.
00:20:53And I see plenty of races from other tracks that are not GMAX tracks.
00:20:57It just makes me scratch my head that how can horse racing not get this right?
00:21:01And again, I know you don't have the answer, but I just find it completely inexcusable.
00:21:07And, you know, I'm tired of is it the supply chain?
00:21:10Is it this or that?
00:21:11Oh, maybe.
00:21:11But damn it, I don't care.
00:21:13Let's get this right.
00:21:14I think you're absolutely right.
00:21:15A hundred percent right.
00:21:17You're preaching to the choir here.
00:21:19Some of those problems, for example,
00:21:22Equibase, when it went over to England and purchased this GMAX timing system, right?
00:21:27I mean, it thought it was revolutionizing the way horse races were timed in the United States.
00:21:33It said, and it was accurate, that races were being timed in the US in 2020,
00:21:39the same as they were being timed in 1937, that it was archaic, that it was antiquated.
00:21:43We're going to bring in this fancy GPS system.
00:21:46Well, a couple of years went by, come to find out that it was a very inaccurate GPS system.
00:21:52The technology, for technology's sake, is not a good idea.
00:21:58At the same time, Equibase bought American Teletimer, which was the single most common,
00:22:05you know, purveyor of the beam system at racetracks all around the country,
00:22:09like Churchill Downs and Naira and elsewhere.
00:22:11And they went around and told racetracks that they were shutting down the beam system in America.
00:22:17They were going to put the beam system out of business
00:22:20because they thought they had something better.
00:22:22Now, lo and behold, they don't have something better.
00:22:24So it's upon Equibase to get what we know works right now,
00:22:29the beam timing thing, completely done properly and to solve some of these problems.
00:22:35And the second big part of the problem, Bill,
00:22:38is that there are racetrack managers in charge of these things all throughout the United States
00:22:43who, A, don't understand the problem, and B, don't appreciate necessarily
00:22:49the importance of the final times.
00:22:52And unfortunately, some of them are at the New York Racing Association right now,
00:22:56which is why we don't have time for the Saratoga Derby published.
00:23:01I'm curious what you do as a figure maker in these cases.
00:23:04Are you or your buyer team timing these races yourselves?
00:23:07Oh, yeah. We know Nations Pride got a 93-buyer speed figure to win the Saratoga Derby.
00:23:13We just can't put it in the system. It can't be published.
00:23:17Writers' Room exclusive, 93-buyer speed figure for Nations Pride.
00:23:21I wonder also if we have this ridiculous run-up system in America,
00:23:26where every race, every track, every race has a different run-up distance.
00:23:30Does that complicate things at all?
00:23:31It doesn't help. It is very antiquated, and they don't do that anywhere else in the world.
00:23:40So it's something that a lot of people have called to change in the United States.
00:23:44It would make the running times a whole heck of a lot slower.
00:23:47So I'm not sure that every horse player and every racetrack manager
00:23:51necessarily advocates that, but it would make for more consistent timing of races
00:23:55from track to track, definitely.
00:23:58Gotcha. We'll keep fighting the good fight on that, Randy.
00:24:00I mean, it's insane that we still have these problems and that it's not a bigger stink,
00:24:06and it's not everybody in the higher-ups of racing doing everything they can to fix this.
00:24:11It's still persisting like this.
00:24:13But I want to shift gears a little bit, because we talked to you about this two
00:24:15weeks ago when you were on the show.
00:24:17We talked about Flightline, obviously, whether or not he was going to come back as a five-year-old.
00:24:21You said before we talked to Costa Jaronis that he had about 1% chance of coming back as a five-year-old.
00:24:29Then after you heard what Costa Jaronis said on this show,
00:24:32you bumped it up to about 4% or 5%.
00:24:34And then, of course, last week, the stud deal was announced that Flightline,
00:24:37at the conclusion of his racing career, is going to go stand at Lane's End.
00:24:41Let's put a little look.
00:24:42We put a little meter up at the bottom of the screen with Randy's head on it.
00:24:45What percentage chance are we at now on the Randy Moss meter to see Flightline in 2023?
00:24:51Joe, I kind of pride myself on being an optimistic, glass-half-full kind of guy.
00:24:55And I was very pessimistic a couple of weeks ago
00:24:58about the chances of Flightline running.
00:25:00And rightfully so.
00:25:01I mean, we've been beating over the head for the last quarter-century
00:25:04with the reality of stallion revenue versus racing revenue
00:25:08and seeing all these top-class resources get an early retirement,
00:25:12which has not been good for the sport as a whole, I think, in most of our opinions.
00:25:17So there's good reason for me to be pessimistic.
00:25:19But I also said that I had no inside information on that.
00:25:22I was just operating on my opinion based on what we had seen in the past.
00:25:27Well, I proved that I had no inside information because I was wrong.
00:25:31All right.
00:25:32I've since come to learn that it's not just Costa Jaronis,
00:25:36who is the majority owner of Flightline, by the way,
00:25:38who would like to see the horse continue to run.
00:25:41There are others within that ownership group who feel the same way that Costa does.
00:25:48So the chances of Flightline running as a five-year-old are higher,
00:25:52certainly, than what I thought a couple of weeks ago,
00:25:56even though the economics of running him next year would be totally out of whack, right?
00:26:02American Pharoah retired for a $200,000 stud fee.
00:26:05Justify retired for $150,000 stud fee.
00:26:07Flightline is a faster horse than either of those two,
00:26:10and he has a tremendous pedigree.
00:26:12Even if he stood for the modest $150,000 sum,
00:26:15you're looking at a revenue of at least $30 million in his first year at stud,
00:26:19which is far more than he could win if everything went perfectly on the race track.
00:26:23Now, having said that about the owners,
00:26:25it's certainly not a slam dunk that he's going to come back and run next year.
00:26:31When that money starts to percolate a little bit, right, it can change some minds.
00:26:36And also, if he were to win the Breeders' Cup Classic impressively,
00:26:41if he were to dominate the Breeders' Cup Classic, what more would he have to prove?
00:26:46But definitely, the odds of him running next year are higher
00:26:50than my pessimistic 1% to 5% estimate a couple of weeks ago.
00:26:55Right.
00:26:56Hey, Randy, since you seem to have some insights into this,
00:26:58and maybe some more insider knowledge that maybe Joe and I don't have,
00:27:02one thing that I love about Costa Ronas, the interview was tremendous.
00:27:06But when I asked him, how is the process going to be decided?
00:27:10Who votes? What kind of percentage they have?
00:27:12He dodged the question.
00:27:13Do you have an understanding of that?
00:27:15I mean, I still have no idea how the five different ownership groups,
00:27:20do they have an equal say at the table?
00:27:23Does one because Costa Ronas make the decision on himself since he's owns more than everybody else?
00:27:27Do you have any insights into that?
00:27:29Because that was one thing that was one of the best interviews we've ever done.
00:27:32Pat ourselves on the back here.
00:27:33But that was the one question that went unanswered.
00:27:36Well, what I've been led to believe is that the voting share
00:27:40in this decision would be commiserate with the percentage of ownership in the race.
00:27:44Okay.
00:27:45So let's say if Costa owns 30% of the horse and someone else owns 25%,
00:27:51and they both want to run the horse next year as an arbiter,
00:27:55then their two shares would supersede all the others.
00:27:59But again, as we talked about with Costa,
00:28:02I mean, this is a pretty close-knit,
00:28:05And one of the owners happens to be Bill Farish,
00:28:08who is standing the horse at stud at lanes in.
00:28:12Now, what I've been told is that Bill is much more amenable to running the horse
00:28:16as a five-year-old than you would expect from a guy that makes his living
00:28:20off of standing stallions, right?
00:28:23So it's going to be interesting to see exactly how this works going forward.
00:28:27You heard it here first, Randy Moss, perfect.
00:28:30I want to say full campaign because I said before in 2023,
00:28:34because he could technically run in the Pegasus and then retire to the next year.
00:28:38So, yeah, I mean, I do think that these guys,
00:28:41these are steeped in racing guys who understand the benefit to the racing public
00:28:48and to the racing community and to the public.
00:28:51And so I think that's going to be interesting to see how this works going forward.
00:28:55Understand the benefit to the racing public and to the racing fan base
00:29:01of having a horse like him race for a little bit longer,
00:29:04race more than five or six times in his career.
00:29:07And I do think that in the end,
00:29:09I think they're more likely than not to do the thing that's beneficial for the racing public,
00:29:13at least for a little bit.
00:29:16I want to bring up another point, though, and you're right,
00:29:19doing what's right for racing is obviously bringing them back.
00:29:21But look, I've never walked a mile in these people's shoes
00:29:24or anywhere close to it, but they could wait a hundred lifetimes
00:29:28and they would never get a horse like this again.
00:29:30And how about just the pleasure and enjoyment?
00:29:33Look, they're going to make so much money off breeding this horse for many,
00:29:36even if he retires after he's five, he can stand a stud for 15, 16, 17 years.
00:29:41Maybe someone don't make so much money.
00:29:43Their great, great grandchildren will never have to worry about,
00:29:46you know, making another penny the rest of their lives.
00:29:48I do sense, particularly from talking to Costa,
00:29:51that they understand that, that you live and dream of getting a horse like this.
00:29:5799.9% of the people that play this game are never going to have a horse like this.
00:30:01So let's, that thrill that we get, can we replace that by making a lot of money?
00:30:07It's a totally different thing.
00:30:08And I think that that is, I think, and I hope and think
00:30:12that is entering into their thoughts as well.
00:30:15And it seems at least from talking to Costa and Ronis,
00:30:17at least that has definitely entered into his thoughts.
00:30:19I hope it does too, I do.
00:30:21But, you know, when you look at the bottom line,
00:30:24I think, let's say, let's say Flightline wins the Breeders' Cup Classic by
00:30:29a nice, modest eight lengths, okay, as opposed to the 19 in the Pacific Classic.
00:30:35Okay, now at that point, let's talk about the what does he have left to prove angle, all right?
00:30:43What we saw with Arrogate was a horse that no other horse in the world
00:30:49had any chance of beating on the dirt until all of a sudden, inexplicably, for no apparent reason,
00:30:58he wasn't the most unbeatable horse on dirt.
00:31:00And his form took a nosedive to where he was well beaten in the Breeders' Cup Classic
00:31:07in what I believe, what I recall is the final race of his career.
00:31:11So there is a risk for continuing to run a horse, perhaps,
00:31:16when you look at the risk-reward ratio.
00:31:18Maybe the reward wouldn't be there because he's already won the Breeders' Cup Classic
00:31:21in dominating fashion.
00:31:23What more could he do at that point to prove to people the kind of horse that he is?
00:31:27But hopefully, I think three of us hope that the fun aspect of it,
00:31:33the enjoyment of having a horse like that will overrule the hard and fast economic part of it.
00:31:39Right.
00:31:40Well, like Bill was saying, and like I've said before, like this is what it's all for.
00:31:43This is why you spend all that money.
00:31:45This is why you put in the hard work to get to the top of the game in racing,
00:31:49is to get a horse like this.
00:31:50This is better than a Derby winner.
00:31:52Everybody says, oh, everybody wants to win the Derby.
00:31:54This is better because there's a Derby winner every year.
00:31:57There is not a flight line every year.
00:31:59There's a flight line once every 30, 40, 50 years.
00:32:02This is what it's all for.
00:32:04It's only downhill from here.
00:32:05No matter how many great horses you guys have going forward,
00:32:08they are not going to match this horse.
00:32:11And the public wants to see them.
00:32:13I think a little bit about Jess Jackson and Curlin.
00:32:16Because remember when Curlin won, he had a great three-year-old, four-year-old campaign,
00:32:20came back as a five-year-old.
00:32:22They ran him on turf.
00:32:23That was the sporting thing where it was like, this is the most popular horse in the world.
00:32:27He's sound.
00:32:28People love to see him.
00:32:29He's great.
00:32:30We want to share his greatness.
00:32:31That's what I think about.
00:32:32People like that will take their horses and know that they belong to the public,
00:32:37at least sentimentally, as much as they belong to you.
00:32:39But like I said, I believe in these guys.
00:32:41And I do think that they're going to end up doing the right thing.
00:32:43And of course, the way he campaigned Rachel Alexander.
00:32:46Perfect.
00:32:46Great example, but Jess Jackson.
00:32:48So all of this, all of this is predicated on him coming out of the Breeders' Cup Classic
00:32:53in absolute 100% physical condition, which falls in the lap of John Sadler right there
00:32:58to make that determination.
00:33:00The CDN Riders Room is brought to you by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association.
00:33:04We are looking forward to Pennsylvania Derby Day this weekend at parks.
00:33:08I'm going to talk about it in a little bit.
00:33:10It's going to feature an 11-horse field, including Xandin, Cyberknife, We The People,
00:33:14Tabo's also, the grade one Cotillion, with a field of nine that features Secret Oath
00:33:18and three other graded stakes on the card.
00:33:20They'll also have the final leg of their two-year-old PA-sired, PA-bred Stallion Series
00:33:25with the $200,000 Prince Lucky Stakes at six and a half furlongs and the $200,000
00:33:30Imply Stakes at the same distance for Phillies.
00:33:33Next year, the series is going to be expanded to six stakes for over a million dollars
00:33:37in purses and awards.
00:33:38So now is the time to look for your PA-sired, PA-bred horse.
00:33:42And not to be forgotten, Chub Wagon runs this weekend.
00:33:45Can't wait to see her.
00:33:46Hopefully, she'll bounce back from her last race.
00:33:48I know she will, actually.
00:33:49We'll be right back after this message from the PHBA.
00:33:53Here in Pennsylvania, we're proud of our breeding program, the best in North America.
00:33:57But we're also proud to be leaders in this industry.
00:34:00The PA Horse Breeders Association is funding cutting-edge research at PenVet to detect
00:34:05gene doping in thoroughbreds.
00:34:07And we endorsed the SAFE Act to help protect the most vulnerable horses.
00:34:12Plus, we're pleased to support the aftercare programs set up by our horseman's groups.
00:34:16Just a few of the reasons why you should join us in Pennsylvania, the premier place to breed
00:34:22and race.
00:34:37The TDN Riders Room is brought to you by XBTV.
00:34:56This week's XBTV Workout of the Week is Slow Down Andy, who worked four furlongs in 49-1
00:35:02in Santa Anita on Sunday, which you can see on your screen right now.
00:35:05The Doug O'Neill trainee won the grade two Cesar's Sportsbook Del Mar Derby last out
00:35:10in his grass debut on Labor Day weekend.
00:35:12You know, Doug O'Neill is always going to take a shot.
00:35:14So you expect to see that horse coming up in the Breeders' Cup, I would think.
00:35:18And definitely kind of a late developing horse for Redrim racing.
00:35:21Nice horse and a little sneaky contender, maybe, for the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland.
00:35:27Mentioned earlier in the show how great of a sale it's been already for Keeneland.
00:35:31They've already exceeded the gross from 2021.
00:35:33They have $13 million yearlings in book one.
00:35:36It's been an unbelievable sale.
00:35:38You know, pretty much records falling.
00:35:40And obviously, Keeneland has great records throughout the years.
00:35:42But this is as close as you're going to get.
00:35:44It's a golden era for racing and for sales.
00:35:47And we talked to Tony Lacy, who is the VP of sales at Keeneland, about everything that's
00:35:51gone on so far, the future of Keeneland, and just what it's like to run a sale with over
00:35:554,000 yearlings that go through the ring.
00:35:58So check out our talk with Tony Lacy.
00:36:00The Green Group Guest of the Week is sponsored by The Green Group, an accounting, tax, consulting,
00:36:04and advisory firm specializing in the thoroughbred industry.
00:36:07With over 500 clients in the horse business, they have proven strategies to save you taxes.
00:36:12Learn more about how they can help you at www.greenco.com.
00:36:16So we're thrilled to bring you on this week in the middle of a very busy two weeks for
00:36:19Keeneland.
00:36:20Keeneland's Vice President of Sales, Tony Lacy.
00:36:22Thanks for coming on.
00:36:24Thanks, Joe.
00:36:24Appreciate it.
00:36:25Glad to be on.
00:36:26Great to talk to you.
00:36:27Obviously, it's been a banner sale.
00:36:29I think we expected the sale to go well with how the yearling market has developed over
00:36:33the over this season.
00:36:35But just tell us, based on your expectations going in and what you've seen so far, how
00:36:40they compare.
00:36:41I think you'd have to be cautious to the optimistic.
00:36:43We've seen the figures of the other sales during the year.
00:36:46They were up.
00:36:46They were healthy.
00:36:48The demand for horses right now is really good.
00:36:50I think the industry is in a great spot as we sort of charter the waters through this.
00:36:57I think it's a little bit of a golden era, to be quite frank.
00:37:00I think there's a lot of enthusiasm.
00:37:02I think coming out of COVID, a lot of people are really appreciating having fun, getting
00:37:08together with friends, enjoying being at a social event like racing can provide.
00:37:15And I think that's where you see the advent of and the expansion of the syndicates and
00:37:22partnerships.
00:37:23It's really, really been healthy.
00:37:25And I think that creates its own synergistic effects as people just want to be a part of
00:37:30that.
00:37:30And we've seen it around the grounds a lot this week.
00:37:33Tony, thanks for joining us.
00:37:35And you're trying to answer the question everybody's trying to answer is what's going
00:37:39on?
00:37:39Why are the sales through the roof?
00:37:40And it's not just the Keeneland September sale, but the sales everywhere.
00:37:44And I had one theory.
00:37:46I can't remember a stallion roster, at least in the last 10 years, 15 years, like we have
00:37:51now, Into Mischief, Gunrunner, Uncle Moe, Quality Road, Tap It, Justify, American Feral.
00:37:56And I'm sure I've forgotten five or six other just tremendous stallions.
00:38:00I mean, you have a top 10 list of stallions right now that I think might match up well
00:38:05with any top 10 list from any time in the history of this sport.
00:38:09Your comment on that and how is that affecting the sales?
00:38:12I agree.
00:38:14As we looked at the sale coming together, it's difficult to split horses up.
00:38:20There's some larger books and that's evident in many of the numbers that are in each sale.
00:38:28But it is incredible depth and the strength.
00:38:31And I think these young sires are giving us an enthusiasm for the future because you always
00:38:36worry when you got that transition from whether you got the Curlins and the Tap It's warfront,
00:38:45who's going to take over those mantles?
00:38:47And I think we've seen that they're coming at a resurgence of talent that
00:38:53I don't think we've seen for a while.
00:38:55And it's across the board.
00:38:56And I think it's given some diversification in bloodlines that is really healthy.
00:39:01It allows people to...
00:39:03You can get a good...
00:39:05I think the only hole in the market right now, I think we need a really top class turf
00:39:11horse to prop up some of these real high class turf mares that are coming through
00:39:17because of the purchases in Europe coming back.
00:39:20And we've got a lot of good stakes fillies in the country.
00:39:22I think it would be really helpful to have a couple of nice turf European style stallions
00:39:27to sort of balance it out.
00:39:28Outside of that, I think it's incredible.
00:39:31Well, Tony, I'm curious about how a couple of the macro trends out there in the sport
00:39:37might be impacting your sale and others.
00:39:39You touched on one of them.
00:39:40First, the purse money that has just gone stratospheric at some tracks.
00:39:45$100,000 made in special weight races, for example.
00:39:50And then also you touched on the rise of the so-called super partnership where you have
00:39:56individuals that might have been willing to go it alone in the past for expensive yearlings
00:40:00that are now banding together in partnerships of two, three, four, five.
00:40:06How might those trends be affecting chemo?
00:40:09I think it's great because we're walking...
00:40:12And I'm just using this small example of Micropoly, Vini Viola, West Point,
00:40:17the Woodford Racing Club, all these different entities that are...
00:40:22Donegal, they've won major races this year with Nes, Donegal, Flightline.
00:40:29This just gives everybody an appetite.
00:40:32And all of those syndicates have more money this year than they've had in the past,
00:40:36as well as many others.
00:40:38So this is...
00:40:39It's affordable now for somebody to get in at a...
00:40:42Whether it's a micro share or a more significant way of participating,
00:40:48but everybody feel has ownership in those horses.
00:40:51And again, we were sitting beside Aaron Wellman and his team,
00:40:56as well as just across the box for the Alabama.
00:40:59And that was incredible just to be in the middle of that and watch them enjoy and share it.
00:41:06I think a lot of people probably are starting to find that
00:41:11enjoying something with a small group of people is great,
00:41:15but enjoying success like that as a larger group has probably got its own...
00:41:20Has its own benefits that are beyond measure.
00:41:24So I think there is...
00:41:25We see a lot of new people walking around the grounds this week.
00:41:28I think the purse money is really validating.
00:41:30I'm making it feasible to own horses right now with the rising cost.
00:41:34But now it's...
00:41:35If you win one race a year in many jurisdictions,
00:41:39you've paid your bills for the year,
00:41:41and in many cases paid for the horse, a part of the horse.
00:41:45So I had an incredible amount of enjoyment in doing it.
00:41:51So I think it's really, really a cool time to be in it.
00:41:56You mentioned it's kind of a golden era right now.
00:41:58I think a lot of that has to do with how many
00:42:00super talented horses we have on the racetrack,
00:42:02and none more exciting than Flightline.
00:42:04I think Flightline is an interesting case
00:42:06because he's kind of the proof of concept right now
00:42:08that you can spend 7 figures on a horse and still make it big,
00:42:12and still make a gigantic profit,
00:42:14and have so much fun racing that kind of horse.
00:42:17We talked about it a little bit on the show last week.
00:42:19I don't remember a horse by himself that had that kind of effect
00:42:22potentially on the market and the appetite for horses.
00:42:25What do you think?
00:42:26How do you think that he's affected the market at Keeneland?
00:42:30We all, I think, you know, a horse like Flightline
00:42:33just gives you, gives the professionals,
00:42:35hardened professionals, chills.
00:42:37I think that's something that we all,
00:42:39sometimes we become a little numb to winners
00:42:42or just having, you know, regular success.
00:42:45But when you see that, we all celebrate as an industry.
00:42:48We celebrate, it rises the industry as one tide.
00:42:51And that gets everybody excited.
00:42:55I think, you know, we've got comparisons to, you know,
00:42:58Ghostzapper to Secretariat, you know, and that's,
00:43:04I speak to some of the ownership at the sales here.
00:43:08That is something that you can still,
00:43:09their feet have not hit the ground yet.
00:43:11And they shouldn't.
00:43:13If those, if no matter, money cannot buy you that success,
00:43:17that feeling.
00:43:18And when you get that uplift from something like that,
00:43:23that lasts a lifetime.
00:43:25And, you know, I see a lot of business people who,
00:43:29you know, they're looking at spreadsheets,
00:43:31making a lot of money in their businesses.
00:43:33And it probably is not as exciting as putting their name
00:43:38onto the ownership line of a horse like that.
00:43:41So it's, you know, we all dream of it.
00:43:45It's the dream that we all keep living and it's possible.
00:43:49And that's what drives everybody forward.
00:43:52And a lot of that money comes right back into the industry.
00:43:54And it's a very, it's a very productive economy
00:44:00because we churn a lot.
00:44:01Anything that comes back into anything made in our industry,
00:44:04we plowed right back in.
00:44:06So it's, I just feel that we've got to not take this time
00:44:12for granted.
00:44:13Look at ways of how we can capture what's working.
00:44:17And again, not all of it is something,
00:44:19it's not all purse money.
00:44:20Because I've talked to the auctioneers here
00:44:22who do many other auctions around the country.
00:44:24It's in standard bread, it's in reigning horses,
00:44:27it's in everything.
00:44:28So we are getting an effect that's global.
00:44:31It's the same in Europe,
00:44:32whether it's jumping horses or whatever,
00:44:34everything is in equine industry right now is very healthy.
00:44:38But we've got to find ways of capturing
00:44:40and maintaining a certain uplift
00:44:42that we're enjoying right now.
00:44:44And I think we can do that for the most part.
00:44:48Tony, we're ending the portion of the sale now.
00:44:50We're not going to see any more seven figure horses.
00:44:52It's going to be more modest, the middle market, et cetera.
00:44:55I think about the only thing that isn't going great guns
00:44:58for the sales is that those kinds of horses
00:45:01are maybe not doing it quite as well as everyone would hope.
00:45:04What are your expectations for the rest of the sales?
00:45:06And it's a problem that's been going,
00:45:08well, I don't know if maybe a problem is too strong a word,
00:45:10but it's an issue that has been ongoing for many years.
00:45:14What can be done to turn around
00:45:15that end of the market as well?
00:45:17Well, at the moment,
00:45:18I think we're up 25% this year over last year.
00:45:22We've been done multiples on the medians every year.
00:45:25So I think it's what you're seeing
00:45:27is actually a good return for many of the breeders.
00:45:30It's a risky endeavor.
00:45:31I'm not going to, but it's a risky endeavor
00:45:33on the front end as well.
00:45:35But there is a lot of happy people
00:45:36walking around the grounds right now.
00:45:38And again, I think it's, if we,
00:45:41I always use the analogy of from a production end,
00:45:45I think breeders are,
00:45:48I always use the analogy of being a farmer.
00:45:53If there's value for their crop,
00:45:55they're more inclined to expand their operation,
00:45:57to develop that operation.
00:45:59And right now there's a real incentive to do that.
00:46:04A return on your investment is not guaranteed in this game
00:46:07by any stretch of the imagination.
00:46:08It is a risky endeavor,
00:46:10but it certainly is looking more fruitful now
00:46:13than it has ever been.
00:46:14And I think we're in a place where
00:46:16I think demand is outstripping supply.
00:46:19So yes, the second week,
00:46:21a lot of people may look at that and frown on it,
00:46:23but there is some nice horses back here.
00:46:26You get graded stakes winners all through the books.
00:46:30Obviously it reduces your risk
00:46:34and your probability of success
00:46:37is greater upfront by a large portion.
00:46:42But there is so many good racehorses
00:46:44through this middle of the books.
00:46:45And that's what,
00:46:46when we were putting the books together,
00:46:48it was really difficult to split up
00:46:50what was a book three, four, five.
00:46:55It's a broad based quality group now
00:46:58that people are not breeding lower end horses
00:47:01like might've happened in the past.
00:47:02It's just not viable.
00:47:04And I think that we're gaining the rewards
00:47:07in the ring right now.
00:47:08So I know horse players, Tony,
00:47:10like to look at the sales sometimes
00:47:12to get a sort of an early line
00:47:14on what some of the first year stallions
00:47:17that they can watch for the next year.
00:47:19So this will be 2023, two-year-old maiden races.
00:47:22What are some of the young stallions
00:47:24that are really making an impact right now?
00:47:27Well, there's quite a few.
00:47:28I think the one that stood out to me personally
00:47:31is probably Omaha Beach.
00:47:32I think the first,
00:47:34his stock are very progressive looking.
00:47:37They look very straightforward and quick looking,
00:47:40very balanced.
00:47:41Fino Rosso is another one
00:47:43that I think has been just very consistent.
00:47:45Metoli.
00:47:48It's very difficult to go to Audible
00:47:50as another one that's really starting to pop up right now.
00:47:53We saw a notable change in those yearlings
00:47:57through the summer
00:47:58because they were horses that were going to furnish
00:48:00when we anticipated they would and they did.
00:48:04So I think the ones that I've mentioned
00:48:07and there's probably two or three others
00:48:08that I might've overlooked a little bit,
00:48:10but there's some really, really quality
00:48:14first season sires right now
00:48:16that I think that it's very encouraging.
00:48:20I think last year we had City of Light
00:48:22that everybody got very excited about
00:48:23and we're a little down on for the first part.
00:48:25It was never meant to have early two-year-olds.
00:48:27So I think we need to give these horses a chance
00:48:30and allow them to flourish.
00:48:32I think that's one thing in the market
00:48:33can be a little overreactionary to early results
00:48:37when some of these horses are not meant to have early stock.
00:48:41So I think I would not be surprised
00:48:43to see Omaha Beach come out of the gates early next year
00:48:46and have some really nice horses.
00:48:48So again, it's a deep bench
00:48:54and I think you're finding
00:48:55that the breeders are very particular
00:48:58about what stallions they breed to.
00:48:59And I think they're getting rewarded
00:49:04by following some of these first ones, first season sires.
00:49:07You know, people see the numbers
00:49:09that Keeneland September is selling over 4,100 yearlings.
00:49:12And I think they understand that it's a massive undertaking
00:49:15to get all those horses through the ring,
00:49:17to house those horses, get all of them sold,
00:49:19all the private sales that are going on afterwards.
00:49:21But can you take us behind the curtain a little bit
00:49:23and talk about the prep work that has to be done
00:49:25to get to Keeneland September
00:49:27and to get all those yearlings there
00:49:28and to do the scouting,
00:49:29to split things up into book one, book two, book three.
00:49:32Like you said, it's difficult sometimes.
00:49:34Can you talk about what your team has to do before the sale
00:49:37to get you guys ready to put those horses through the ring?
00:49:40Well, firstly, it's a team.
00:49:41It's a team effort and it's a massive team
00:49:44that are really incredible people.
00:49:46I'm honored to work with them
00:49:48because we've been working on this tirelessly
00:49:51for most of the year.
00:49:52And it's, you know, this,
00:49:54as people see the horses walking through the ring,
00:49:57we have a story almost behind every yearling,
00:49:59you know, where we've gone to their farms
00:50:00to spoke about each individual.
00:50:02But early in the year, we're speaking to breeders
00:50:06what their opinions are about how the previous year went.
00:50:11And when the entries are flowing in
00:50:13towards the end of April,
00:50:16just coming up to the derby,
00:50:17once the derby is over, we consolidate all the entries.
00:50:21We locate where every group is,
00:50:24each farm, where we need to go to.
00:50:27And we get two, sometimes three teams
00:50:31constant on the road five days a week.
00:50:33And we get through almost 3,000 yearlings
00:50:36in about a seven week period in inspections,
00:50:40grading them, looking at them and trying to predict,
00:50:43you know, where they'll be by September.
00:50:47What's the progression rate?
00:50:48Because we're seeing them one point in time at that stage.
00:50:51And we're trying to predict what they're developing
00:50:54curve will be.
00:50:56Also their marketability, who the market is,
00:50:58because you can have a horse that's worth X amount,
00:51:01but if it's not in front of the marketplace
00:51:03that is going to buy that horse,
00:51:05you're probably gonna miss the mark.
00:51:07So it's a very delicate balance.
00:51:09We go through and we have the inspections,
00:51:10get all our data, all the pedigree,
00:51:13all the research that we can get.
00:51:15And then we basically lock ourselves in the room
00:51:17for about two and a half, three weeks,
00:51:19working through each and every one of them,
00:51:22trying to make sure that we create balance
00:51:24through the books, because we've got a responsibility
00:51:27to the seller who has entrusted us with that yearly,
00:51:30but also to the buyer,
00:51:32that the buyer is affording us their time
00:51:35out of their busy schedules to come and spend time with us.
00:51:39So we wanna make sure that the horses that they would expect,
00:51:43the quality that they expect will be on those days.
00:51:46And sometimes we have to be the bad person
00:51:51because we have to tell people
00:51:52that something is not as good,
00:51:54or they might fight and think,
00:51:56oh, I don't, there was a,
00:51:57the book one was always the boogeyman previously,
00:52:00but I think we were adamant
00:52:02that we needed to get the quality forward,
00:52:04that we were working hard
00:52:06to get the principles back to the table,
00:52:08let them come, let them vent,
00:52:11get those good horses up front
00:52:12and let's not hide them in the middle of the books.
00:52:15And we were really lobbying for those.
00:52:17And we did for the most part and it worked.
00:52:22And that was something
00:52:23that the buyers were very appreciative.
00:52:25The sellers understood what we were trying to do.
00:52:28And I think as we go forward,
00:52:30we wanna make sure that
00:52:32we've got something that's incredibly special here.
00:52:35None of us are in it for the money.
00:52:37We are passionate about what we do.
00:52:40We're passionate about building the industry.
00:52:42And we're not about the bottom line.
00:52:45We're about doing the right thing
00:52:46and growing the industry
00:52:48because that's what Keeneland was founded on.
00:52:50So everything we do,
00:52:52we don't ask what's the profit margin for us.
00:52:58We always ask what is the right thing to do?
00:53:00And that's what we try to do with every single horse,
00:53:04every single consigner, breeder, buyer,
00:53:07trying to make sure everybody feels included
00:53:09and is represented right to the very end.
00:53:11Because if I sound tired,
00:53:14that's because I'm exhausted.
00:53:16It is a tiring,
00:53:18but you have to be on the ball.
00:53:20If something goes wrong, you've got to be there.
00:53:22You've got to be supportive
00:53:24because we've all been in their shoes.
00:53:26We know what it's like to go up with a yearling
00:53:28and how important that is in the back ring
00:53:30or in the pavilion.
00:53:31As your knees are knocking,
00:53:33you're trying to get that horse.
00:53:34That makes or breaks your year.
00:53:36So we feel the pressure.
00:53:37We feel the responsibility.
00:53:39So everybody in this building
00:53:41is working many, many hours a day,
00:53:45making sure that this is as good as it possibly can be
00:53:48for the best result and also for the buyer.
00:53:51So it's incredibly motivating.
00:53:54And so I hope they get to do this
00:53:57for a number of years more,
00:53:59but it's incredibly exciting.
00:54:02Going back, yes, it's a year-long event
00:54:05to putting this together.
00:54:06And it's very exciting to see the results
00:54:08as they come through.
00:54:10Tony, over recent years,
00:54:11you've tried a bunch of different formats
00:54:12so far as how many days of the sale book
00:54:15one would be, night sale versus day sale.
00:54:18Considering that the sale is going so well,
00:54:21have you now, are you done with the tinkering?
00:54:23Is this, have you found the sweet spot?
00:54:25And is this the kind of format
00:54:26that we'll expect to see going forward?
00:54:29Well, but when I came in here a year and a half ago,
00:54:31it was, that was the thing.
00:54:32We all, we were, we were, I was a consigner.
00:54:35So it was one thing we wanted.
00:54:37One thing we all do as horse people
00:54:38is want consistency.
00:54:40We're people, we're preachers of routine of,
00:54:44so when we show up on a certain day,
00:54:46we want to know what we're doing.
00:54:48It's like in the barn in the morning,
00:54:49at the farm and the horses enjoy it.
00:54:51But we understand,
00:54:52that's what creates a consistency.
00:54:55The, again, everybody was a little intimidated
00:55:00about having something up front in the books,
00:55:03but it was counterintuitive to what,
00:55:04what the marketplace was looking for.
00:55:06We were, we were encouraging people to come here
00:55:08and working hard, traveling around the world,
00:55:11getting people to come to our sale.
00:55:13And some of the better quality were,
00:55:15were being placed.
00:55:18You know, and it was, it was,
00:55:19it's a really, really difficult thing to do.
00:55:22So as we were adamant that we have to get this right.
00:55:25And that's where this format works well for logistically.
00:55:29It works well for the buyer.
00:55:31It works well for the seller.
00:55:33And obviously it worked well for the market.
00:55:36And so we, we, we have to really,
00:55:38really lean into this and keep it,
00:55:40to keep it consistent.
00:55:42We're perfected.
00:55:43It's never going to be,
00:55:44I'm not going to say it's ever going to be perfect,
00:55:46but we've got to work towards perfection.
00:55:49And that's what we've got a responsibility
00:55:53as a sales team, as a, as a sales company do,
00:55:56because we are very important to the industry.
00:55:58If, if, if we fail, the industry fails.
00:56:03Well, Tony, your thoroughness is more than
00:56:05answered any question that I had.
00:56:07I just have to say, you may be tired and exhausted,
00:56:09but I think we're jealous that you get to go to work
00:56:12every day at either one of the most beautiful
00:56:15horse farms in the world,
00:56:16or one of the most beautiful racetracks in the world.
00:56:19That's got to be a real kick.
00:56:21Hey, I'm looking out of the paddock.
00:56:23My window of my office overlooks the paddock.
00:56:28I pinch myself every day.
00:56:30I smile every day.
00:56:31I come through the front gates.
00:56:32I think we all do.
00:56:34You know, we took an internal survey for employees.
00:56:36We're looking to how to know what's important,
00:56:40what's important to us all.
00:56:41And it's the, it's the whole, it's what we stand for.
00:56:47You know, the, the founders were very,
00:56:50very wise in putting the perspectives together in 1936,
00:56:54number was to perpetuate the sport.
00:56:56And that is really what we're driven on a daily basis.
00:57:00And it goes down through everybody in the,
00:57:02in the, in the organization.
00:57:04So it's not something that everybody thinks,
00:57:06oh, Keeneland is this.
00:57:07But no, we, we stand for something.
00:57:10And that's what motivated me to come into a job like this
00:57:13or apply for a job like this.
00:57:15I feel very, very fortunate,
00:57:17no matter how difficult it is at times.
00:57:20It's, we're, as we're going through the books
00:57:23and we're working,
00:57:24but we've got the race meet to look forward to as well.
00:57:28You know, as soon as that is,
00:57:29we're, we're hosting the breeder's cup.
00:57:31As soon as that over,
00:57:32we're hosting the second largest sale
00:57:34in the world in November sale and bringing the world to us.
00:57:37And that in itself,
00:57:40as I said, I couldn't,
00:57:41it's no greater pleasure to do that for,
00:57:43it's not self-serving by any means,
00:57:45even though I get a huge kick out of it.
00:57:47It's knowing that what we do as,
00:57:50as a group has repercussions throughout the industry.
00:57:53And that's, that's a huge responsibility,
00:57:55but it's also something that motivates us
00:57:58to do better every day.
00:57:59And so hopefully we'd get to enjoy the sport
00:58:02and make it better,
00:58:03not trying to be overly, you know,
00:58:06sounding that we're,
00:58:08but, but it's, it's the motivation that makes us,
00:58:12this drives us, drives us forward.
00:58:14So it's, it's, I'm not giving up the seat.
00:58:18Nor should you, I mean, go get some rest,
00:58:21but thank you so much for the time, Tony.
00:58:23It's a magical place.
00:58:24And you and your team are doing everything you can
00:58:26to make it even better.
00:58:27Appreciate the time, Tony.
00:58:29Thank you, Tony.
00:58:30Looking forward to seeing you down here
00:58:31over the next few weeks.
00:58:32Absolutely.
00:58:34The Green Group Guest of the Week
00:58:35is sponsored by The Green Group,
00:58:36an accounting, tax, consulting, and advisory firm
00:58:39specializing in the thoroughbred industry.
00:58:40As this week's Green Group Guest of the Week,
00:58:42Tony Lacey will receive a free one hour tax consultation.
00:58:45Learn more at greenco.com.
00:58:47We'll be right back after this message
00:58:49from The Green Group.
00:58:51Why do the most successful owners, breeders,
00:58:53and horsemen select The Green Group
00:58:54as their tax advisor?
00:58:55We simply save them money
00:58:56and know how to make them more successful.
00:58:58Over the past 40 years, founder Leonard Green
00:59:00has owned and bred some of the best racehorses
00:59:02in the history of the sport.
00:59:03His in-depth, hands-on industry knowledge
00:59:06combined with cutting edge tax saving strategies
00:59:08has produced positive results for his clientele
00:59:10and has made The Green Group
00:59:11the top rated accounting and tax firm in the business.
00:59:13For a confidential and complimentary consultation,
00:59:16contact us at 732-634-5100
00:59:20or visit our website at www.greenco.com.
00:59:23The Green Group, proven strategies to save you taxes.
00:59:28The Green Group, proven strategies to save you taxes.
00:59:30This weekend in the weekend preview,
00:59:59our focus shifts to Parks, to Ben Salem, Pennsylvania.
01:00:03Parks has the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby
01:00:05and the $1 million Catillion for three-year-old males
01:00:08and three-year-old fillies, respectively.
01:00:11Very, very nice field in the Pennsylvania Derby.
01:00:1411 horses, which you would expect for a million dollars,
01:00:16but it's not always what we get.
01:00:18I feel like we usually get seven or eight horses.
01:00:20You know, and other than Epicenter,
01:00:21I don't know who else you could ask for in this field.
01:00:24We've got Teba, who's the slight favorite
01:00:26at five to two on the morning line.
01:00:28We've got Zanden breaking from the rail.
01:00:30It's a new rider in Joel Rosario.
01:00:33We've got Cyberknife, who's three to one,
01:00:35second choice, breaking the middle,
01:00:37close to the middle of the pack in the five hole.
01:00:40He's, you know, Epicenter, you would think,
01:00:42is the slam dunk three-year-old champion right now.
01:00:45Cyberknife is the only other one I think has a chance
01:00:47if he wins this race and then somehow wins the classic.
01:00:49Obviously, it's probably not going to happen.
01:00:51But even like some of the lesser horses
01:00:53that you haven't really heard from in a while,
01:00:54Simplification was a nice horse early
01:00:56on the Derby trail this year.
01:00:58White Ibarrio's in there.
01:01:00B-Dog is an interesting little long shot for Doug O'Neill.
01:01:02Skippy Longstocking, We the People, Tawny Port.
01:01:05I mean, these are some nice horses.
01:01:07Like this isn't like the B team
01:01:09of the three-year-old division.
01:01:11You know, it's early, but who are you guys interested in
01:01:14in the Pennsylvania Derby?
01:01:15Joe, I mean, I think Teba would be the horse
01:01:17you'd have to look at because,
01:01:19and again, I reserve the right to change my mind.
01:01:20I haven't done a deep dive into the race.
01:01:22But I think with him,
01:01:24I still don't think we've seen his best.
01:01:26I mean, he was rushed into the Kentucky Derby
01:01:28in his third lifetime start
01:01:29after winning the Santa Anita Derby.
01:01:31That didn't go well, then came back off a layoff
01:01:33and ran well in the Haskell,
01:01:36but I would expect that he would probably run
01:01:38a little bit better in this race.
01:01:40And shout out to Parks here.
01:01:43They've come up with, like you said,
01:01:44a really good, really deep race.
01:01:46To think you have the Bluegrass winner,
01:01:48the Arkansas Derby winner, the Haskell winner,
01:01:50the Santa Anita Derby winner,
01:01:51and the Florida Derby winner,
01:01:53not to mention horses that have won
01:01:55like the Fountain of Youth West Virginia Derby
01:01:57and some other lesser races.
01:01:59But I'll give you one scenario to consider.
01:02:01If Cyberknife wins this race
01:02:03and Epicenter doesn't win the Breeders' Cup Classic,
01:02:06which considering Fightline,
01:02:08looks like that very well could be the case.
01:02:13Epicenter would have one grade one win on the year
01:02:16and Cyberknife would have three.
01:02:18I'm trying to think, would that be,
01:02:19even though I know in my heart
01:02:21that Epicenter is the better horse of the two,
01:02:24that's kind of a, that's a big statement there.
01:02:26Three grade ones versus one,
01:02:27I think you could make a case
01:02:30that Cyberknife could be the three-year-old champion.
01:02:33Now, if one of the other wins the Breeders' Cup Classic,
01:02:36all big ifs, that's going to settle everything out.
01:02:38But it's a really good race in here.
01:02:42But right now I'd be a table guy,
01:02:44not giving you any great insights in there.
01:02:46He is going to be the favorite in the race.
01:02:49And back in the Bob Baffert barn,
01:02:51as we talked last week,
01:02:52Baffert coming back from suspension
01:02:53and everything is rolling, just great gun.
01:02:56For him.
01:02:56So he's won the race three times,
01:02:59Zito and Nick Zito and Woody Stevens have also won it three.
01:03:02So he would add this as still another race
01:03:04where he has the most wins ever in the career.
01:03:06But it's just, without Epicenter,
01:03:08you don't have that big star in the race.
01:03:11But things we ask for, competitive racing,
01:03:14big fields, a lot of good horses,
01:03:16it checks all the boxes except maybe the star power one
01:03:19with Epicenter being,
01:03:20and I'm not saying these horses aren't good horses
01:03:22or stars or anything,
01:03:23but Epicenter being the main star in the division.
01:03:27You know, it's going to be a fun race.
01:03:28They've done a great job positioning this on the calendar.
01:03:31You know, after the Triple Crown,
01:03:32you have the other three races,
01:03:34kind of a second, you know,
01:03:35goal of the three race series,
01:03:37Haskell, Travers, and of course the Pennsylvania Derby,
01:03:41Cyberknife running and all three,
01:03:42you know, high level and guys actually run their horses.
01:03:45So good for you.
01:03:46Good on you, Brad Cox.
01:03:47We'll see what happens on Saturday.
01:03:48I'm really looking forward to this race.
01:03:50You know, six horses in this race
01:03:52were in the Kentucky Derby.
01:03:54Another one, Skippy Longstocking,
01:03:56was in the Preakness and the Belmont.
01:03:57And another one, We the People,
01:03:59was one of the favorites in the Belmont Stakes.
01:04:01So, I mean, you're talking about a really good,
01:04:03really good bunch here.
01:04:04And Bill, I agree with your assessment
01:04:06that Teva is the horse to beat.
01:04:07I think the line maker got it right at five to two.
01:04:10Like he was beaten ahead by Cyberknife in the Haskell,
01:04:12but he was the best horse that day.
01:04:14Right.
01:04:14He had an outside trip
01:04:16where Cyberknife got through on the rail
01:04:17every step of the way.
01:04:19And still, he was only beaten by a head.
01:04:21And if you recall that race,
01:04:22Teva, in the running of the Haskell,
01:04:24sort of took about an eighth of a mile off
01:04:28when they got to the half mile pole
01:04:29and started dropping back.
01:04:30That's right, yeah.
01:04:31Really dead.
01:04:33And then, you know, sort of picked it up again
01:04:35and picked up the bit and charged back up again.
01:04:37So he ran kind of a spotty race
01:04:39and still almost won.
01:04:41With Zandon on the rail,
01:04:43I actually think Cyberknife
01:04:46is a good favorite to try to beat
01:04:48in your exotics,
01:04:49or a good second choice in this case,
01:04:51a three to one to try to beat.
01:04:53Simply because two races back
01:04:55when he won the Haskell,
01:04:56he got that inside trip I'm talking about.
01:04:59Last time in the Travers,
01:05:00when he was second to Epicenter,
01:05:02he broke from post number one
01:05:04and Florent Giroux wisely used his speed.
01:05:07He set an uncontested pace
01:05:08in relatively modest fractions for a race
01:05:12like the Travers.
01:05:12And so he had an advantageous trip
01:05:14in both of his last two races.
01:05:16And now Zandon is going to save ground from the rail.
01:05:19So for me, I think Zandon and Teva,
01:05:21I think it's going to come down to one of those two.
01:05:24You know, just to the point
01:05:25about the three-year-old championship,
01:05:26you know, I think if it hadn't been
01:05:28such a resounding defeat in the Travers,
01:05:31you know, Epicenter was so clearly best.
01:05:33I think Cyberknife would have
01:05:35a little bit better of a case.
01:05:37But it is interesting, you know,
01:05:38maybe he goes in here and wins this race
01:05:40and then goes in the Breeders' Cup dirt mile
01:05:42and avoids Flightline and wins that race.
01:05:44Then you got four grade one.
01:05:45Now we're obviously jumping ahead here,
01:05:47but if you have four grade ones
01:05:48and Epicenter loses to Flightline in the Classic,
01:05:51then I think you have an interesting scenario
01:05:54where there's more of a reasonable debate.
01:05:56But yeah, we'll know more about after Saturday.
01:05:59But yeah, that was my main takeaway from this race
01:06:02is that Cyberknife is the only one.
01:06:04He's the only one who has a chance
01:06:05to dethrone Epicenter right now.
01:06:07But it starts with winning on Saturday.
01:06:09It's going to be a terrific race.
01:06:10It'll be interesting to see how the pace shakes out.
01:06:12And the Contillion's a pretty interesting race,
01:06:14which we're going to talk about after this break.
01:06:16From Three Chimneys, Gunrunner has had
01:06:18$5 million yearling sell so far at Keeneland September,
01:06:21which is remarkable.
01:06:23He has a big weekend of racing coming up.
01:06:25You know, as we talked about, Taba and Cyberknife,
01:06:27both by Gunrunner.
01:06:28They're going head-to-head again in the Pennsylvania Derby.
01:06:30Plus, Steve Asprey's in Trainees Society,
01:06:32he's in the Contillion.
01:06:34And then running son of a gun
01:06:36is in the grade two Gallant Bobstakes.
01:06:38Also going to be some yearlings by Sharpass Tekka,
01:06:40who has 19 winners now.
01:06:42He has some yearlings at Keeneland September.
01:06:44This week on Tuesday,
01:06:46the very first horse to go through the ring
01:06:48was one of the top lots of the day.
01:06:49The colt was bred by Steve Cawthon's Dreamfields Farm,
01:06:53sold for $250,000.
01:06:55Sharpass Tekka is the best value you can get right now
01:06:58with the start that he's gotten off to
01:07:00because that stud fee is only going to go up and up
01:07:03if he continues his success.
01:07:04We'll be right back after this message from Three Chimneys.
01:07:13Looking strong, squares off with Cyberknife.
01:07:15Cyberknife takes the lead.
01:07:17Taba going with him.
01:07:18These two in a thriller.
01:07:19Cyberknife just in front.
01:07:21And Cyberknife has won the TBG.com Haskell over Taba.
01:07:26Jack Christopher finished third.
01:07:28The running time, one minute 46.24 seconds.
01:07:34Come dream with us at Three Chimneys.
01:07:38As I said, not only one but two million dollar grade one races restricted.
01:07:43Grade one races this Saturday at Parks.
01:07:45You also have the grade one Catillion stakes.
01:07:47That's going to be running at 520.
01:07:49Pennsylvania Derby will run at 610 Eastern time.
01:07:52Pretty nice field in the Catillion as well.
01:07:54We've got nine horses, as I mentioned.
01:07:56Society for Steve Asmussen, the gunrunner of Philly.
01:07:59Won by six and three quarter lengths in the Charlestown Oaks last time out.
01:08:03The local hope, or at least local in terms of where she ran last time out,
01:08:07Greenup, who's a very nice horse for Team Valor and Todd Pletcher.
01:08:11Won the Catherine Sovia stakes, which is the prep for the Catillion at Parks
01:08:15by three and three quarter lengths.
01:08:16We also have Adair Manor, who was a top Kentucky Oaks contender earlier this year.
01:08:20She was second in the Black Eyed Susan when we saw her last.
01:08:24Goddess of Fire, who's been a nice little horse for Todd Pletcher.
01:08:27Gerrymander, who won the grade two Mother Goose earlier this year.
01:08:30Shahama, who won the Monmouth Oaks last time out.
01:08:32So a pretty good field.
01:08:34But for me, the takeaway, or at least what I would have liked to see, is Moira.
01:08:40We've talked about Moira potentially running in this race after the Queen's Plate,
01:08:44because she went off of the Triple Crown Trail in Canada.
01:08:47I thought this was the race they were pointing to.
01:08:49Wonder where she's going to go next.
01:08:50Maybe you guys have a little bit of insight.
01:08:52But it's a nice field.
01:08:53But if Moira was in the race, to me, that would have been an appointment viewing.
01:08:56What do you guys think?
01:08:57Joe, as you mentioned that, I texted Kevin Attard today.
01:09:00Where are you going with Moira now that the Catillion is obviously out?
01:09:03It's either the E.P. Taylor or the Queen Elizabeth II.
01:09:06She's going to work this weekend.
01:09:07But he says, I want to wait to see the noms come out for the races.
01:09:11And I'm wondering if he's reading between the lines.
01:09:13I'm going wherever Charlie Appleby isn't.
01:09:15So it could be the case.
01:09:17But yeah, she's terrific.
01:09:18I would have loved to seen her in this race.
01:09:20You know, I grew up in Philadelphia, right?
01:09:22In Center City, Philadelphia.
01:09:23And this was my racetrack that I was raised on, going with my dad.
01:09:26I go back to the days, not when it was just called Philadelphia Park,
01:09:29it was called Keystone.
01:09:30Randy will remember that, of course.
01:09:32It was Keystone Racetrack.
01:09:34So I have a little bit of a soft spot in my heart.
01:09:37From a gap, another very good race.
01:09:39Again, you're missing, only missing the number one horse.
01:09:42You're missing Ness.
01:09:44No surprise at all that she's not in there after running out.
01:09:46Yeah, did I not even mention Secret Oath?
01:09:47My bad.
01:09:48I was writing down what I was going to get to then.
01:09:51Secret Oath, you know, is the logical favorite in here in the headliner.
01:09:56There's something about her, though.
01:09:57And I can't really put my, you know, my hands around it.
01:10:00I'm going to try to beat her.
01:10:02I mean, I know that she was beaten by Ness, who was just tremendous.
01:10:06But she got drugged in her last two races, albeit by a very good horse.
01:10:11But I just think, you know, maybe she's not at the top of her game right now.
01:10:15If she had looked Ness in the eye and lost by a half a length in those races,
01:10:19you know, she'd be like three to five in here and say, well, she's, you know,
01:10:22how can she lose this race?
01:10:25Greenup, to me, is really interesting.
01:10:27She's a horse that really stepped up last time out in the prep for this,
01:10:30the Catherine Sophia.
01:10:32Now, she ran at, what is it, 100 by her number, Randy?
01:10:34I'm looking at my PPs here.
01:10:35I guess the question would be, might she bounce off that?
01:10:38But I'd rather think that she's a horse that just took a while to get good for Todd Pletcher.
01:10:42Todd Pletcher, you know, obviously, you know, he can keep a horse going
01:10:45as well as anybody in the race.
01:10:47So again, you know, 96 hours out or whatever it is,
01:10:50she would be my pick.
01:10:51Reserve the right to change my mind.
01:10:53But I think from a handicapping standpoint, you have to try to beat Secret Oath in there.
01:10:57Not that she's going to be three to five or anything.
01:10:59The race is too deep for that.
01:11:01I think she'll be more in the line of two to one, five to two, something like that.
01:11:04But right now, I'll put Greenup on top.
01:11:06But again, very good, very deep race.
01:11:09It's giving the horse players and the racing fan what they want,
01:11:12a competitive race with a big field.
01:11:14Can't wait for the cotillion either.
01:11:16Yeah, the resounding losses that Secret Oath had to nest
01:11:21don't bother me that much in themselves.
01:11:25Because I think we saw in the Arkansas Derby,
01:11:27we saw in the Preakness and we saw in those two races with Nest,
01:11:31that to me at least, Secret Oath doesn't look like the kind of filly
01:11:34that really relishes a dogfight.
01:11:36It's like when she's running against horses that she can beat,
01:11:39then she looks like a world beater.
01:11:41And when she's running against horses that she knows she can't beat,
01:11:43when it comes right down to it,
01:11:45she might kind of check out a little bit.
01:11:47What bothers me the most about Secret Oath,
01:11:50and I can't believe I'm saying this because, you know,
01:11:52I mean, this kind of goes against everything I believe,
01:11:55but this is our 10th start so far this year.
01:11:58And in the context of the way horses are trained in 2022,
01:12:08that's a lot of action for Secret Oath.
01:12:10And we just saw another three-year-old in the Lucas Farm.
01:12:13Wayne, he's not shy about running his horses as we know.
01:12:16Ethereal Road, who really was being run a lot
01:12:20and really began to show a downturn in his last couple on turf.
01:12:24So that is the primary reason I would be willing to take a shot against Secret Oath.
01:12:29And I think you zeroed in on exactly the right horse.
01:12:33And here's why.
01:12:34Adair Manor, you got the Bob Baffert factor, right?
01:12:38Adair Manor is the second favorite in the race at odds of seven to two,
01:12:41coming back off a second place finish in the Black-Eyed Susan.
01:12:44The horse that beat her in the up and up in the Black-Eyed Susan
01:12:47was a horse called Interstate Daydream.
01:12:49Interstate Daydream came after that,
01:12:52was shipped to Horseshoe, Indianapolis,
01:12:54and won the Indiana Oaks and won it impressively in another fast figure.
01:12:59And then she went to the Catherine Sophia, the prep race at Parks,
01:13:03and she was the one to two favorite against Green Up.
01:13:07And Green Up absolutely beat her fair and square.
01:13:11She came around her, the outside around the turn,
01:13:15she just darted away from her at the top of the stretch.
01:13:18Green Up has now won four races in a row by open lengths.
01:13:22She has that good buyer speed figure you pointed out last time of 100.
01:13:26Now this is affiliates very blue collar.
01:13:27She was only a $10,000 yearling by upstart out of a two-punch mare.
01:13:32So she's not a lot in that department.
01:13:37But my gosh, on the racetrack right now for Todd Pletcher,
01:13:40she is really looking like a potential star in the division.
01:13:43Not a nest star, but I think good enough to win the cotillion at six to one in the program.
01:13:49Yeah, I don't think you're going to get that.
01:13:50Put that 100 buyer and then to Todd Pletcher factor,
01:13:53Barry Irwin's probably going to put a big chunk of money on her too.
01:13:56I suspect she's going to be more in the three to one, seven to two range.
01:14:00But you guys were talking about the full field,
01:14:02and they really have done a great job with this card at Parks.
01:14:05Not only putting it in the right spot on the calendar, but you've got six stakes.
01:14:09The last six races on the card are all stakes races.
01:14:11Five of them are graded.
01:14:12The Greenwood Cup has nine horses.
01:14:14The Turf Monster has 12.
01:14:16The Gallant Bob has 14.
01:14:18The Cotillion has nine.
01:14:19Pennsylvania Derby has 11.
01:14:21And the Alphabet Soup Handicap is the last race of the day.
01:14:24It has another 10 horses.
01:14:25So we complain a lot about short fields on big days in racing.
01:14:29This is not one of those circumstances.
01:14:31Definitely, the Parks Racing Office and the people in Pennsylvania racing
01:14:35deserve your business this Saturday.
01:14:37It's going to be a great, great card.
01:14:39Elsewhere on the calendar, not too much else going on.
01:14:42We have the Athenia at the Belmont at the Big A, which is a grade three.
01:14:46A couple of stakes races at Churchill, including the grade three Dogwood.
01:14:50On Sunday, we've got the Gallant Bloom at Belmont at the Big A.
01:14:53And shout out to Remington Park.
01:14:55They have the Oklahoma Derby and the Remington Park Oaks,
01:14:57which are both grade threes this Sunday night.
01:15:00But yeah, most eyes will be on Parks.
01:15:01And it's a great, great betting sequence.
01:15:03So get involved, for sure.
01:15:05The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by West Point Thoroughbreds.
01:15:08West Point has purchased over a dozen yearlings so far during the Keeneland September sale,
01:15:13including the current sale topper in the $2.5 million Quality Road Colt.
01:15:17They bought in partnership with Woodford Racing and Taller Racing.
01:15:20Look forward to watching a lot of these promising horses, hopefully next spring and summer.
01:15:24And this weekend, we have a big weekend of racing with BDOC,
01:15:27who I mentioned before, coming off a win at Ellis Park in the grade one Pennsylvania Derby.
01:15:32So best of luck to everybody at West Point.
01:15:34We'll be right back after this message from West Point Thoroughbreds.
01:15:38All the thrills.
01:15:42Fraction of the bills.
01:15:47Experience the power of the partnership.
01:15:52Change your life, make new friends, and compete at the highest level of thoroughbred racing.
01:16:00West Point Thoroughbreds, the gold standard in racing partnerships.
01:16:04Visit westpointtb.com.
01:16:08Being a small family business, I guess we're part of a dying breed.
01:16:11We're really grateful for the people that entrust us.
01:16:14We know it's a huge responsibility.
01:16:15We're always with your horse, every step of the way.
01:16:19When it comes to being at the sales ground, showing your horses, we are with your horse.
01:16:24Just driving up and down the road every day.
01:16:26There's not a time that I don't look out and feel a responsibility to the sport, the animal,
01:16:30the people that come to invest in the game.
01:16:32I want to see as many people enjoy this sport as they possibly can,
01:16:34because we do have the most beautiful sport in the world.
01:16:38The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by Legacy Bloodstock.
01:16:41If you think that 50 years combined experience in the horse business could benefit your program,
01:16:45give Tommy or Wendy a call.
01:16:46They personally advise on each horse as if they were their own.
01:16:50Legacy's had a great start to the Keeneland September sale.
01:16:52They had two yearlings sell for over $400,000 during the first two books,
01:16:56and a City of Light colt sell for $500,000 during book three.
01:17:00So hats off to Tommy and Wendy and the team.
01:17:02They're selling their book five yearlings today.
01:17:05Wednesday, and then you can find them showing for book six out of Barn 39.
01:17:09So make sure you go check them out.
01:17:11They do a great job and the results speak for themselves.
01:17:15This week's Remy cartoon is one that I think is really cute and funny.
01:17:19We got a couple of people sitting at a water station,
01:17:22and they're handing out water cups like they do in the marathon here in New York and Boston.
01:17:26And they say they're going two turns, which is why they're handing out the water cups.
01:17:30And I think, you know, the longer the longer they go,
01:17:33And I think, you know, the longer the longer we go in racing,
01:17:35the less likely we're going to see that many two turn races.
01:17:38So I think we're not that far off with the tilt towards sprinters and milers.
01:17:42We might need a little bit of water breaks for some of these horses
01:17:45in the future going more than a mile.
01:17:48Okay, so that's going to do it for this week's edition of the TDN Writer's Room,
01:17:51presented by Keeneland.
01:17:52Don't forget the Keeneland September sale is still going on through this
01:17:55this Saturday, September 24th.
01:17:57Still plenty of good horses up for bids.
01:17:59And now all the bigwigs like John Green have gotten out of town.
01:18:03Really get in on the ground floor and some of these cheaper horses
01:18:05and really make some big bucks next year on the racetrack.
01:18:09It's definitely top to bottom.
01:18:11It's a quality sale.
01:18:12And I think it's easier to find steals as we go on later in the sale.
01:18:16It goes through this Saturday, September 24th.
01:18:18I want to thank Bill Finley, Randy Moss, our Green Group Guest of the Week,
01:18:22Tony Lacey, our producer, Patty Wolf, our associate producer, Katie Petruniak,
01:18:25and our editors, Anthony LaRocca, Aliyah LaRocca, and Nathan Wilkinson,
01:18:29and also our fourth co-host, Lucy.
01:18:31Thanks for joining us this week.
01:18:34Lucy.
01:18:35Oh wait, Lucy's gone?
01:18:36You got a call.