Thursday afternoon forecast 17/08/23
17 August – National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hi there. A quiet day as far as the weather is concerned on Thursday, less quiet on Friday
00:06and into the weekend. But for the vast majority on Thursday afternoon at least, it's fine.
00:11There is some fair weather clouds, some cumulus and stratocumulus out there. It's not entirely
00:16sunny, but there are some spells of sunshine coming through. And for the vast majority
00:20it's dry, but the odd shower could just pop up across parts of Western England, Wales
00:25and more especially for Scotland. However, even for Scotland where the showers are most
00:29numerous, many places will avoid them and stay dry. Now, there's a bit more of a breeze
00:34compared with recent days, that breeze coming in from the east and southeast and so temperatures
00:39a little more limited along that east coast of Britain, 17 to 21 Celsius. More inland,
00:45that's where you'll see temperatures of low to mid-20s. They would be higher if we didn't
00:51have the breeze because humidity levels are rising and we'll notice that overnight, over
00:56the next few nights certainly. But for many places it's simply pleasant enough in any
01:02sunny spells. You might notice that increased breeze however. Then through the evening,
01:08clear spells in the east, a bit more medium and high level cloud in the west. One or two
01:12showers start to turn up for Northern Ireland, into Wales and the southwest as well, falling
01:17from medium level cloud and the wind continues to pick up. Now, that's going to bring in
01:21some low cloud across eastern parts of Britain, a few patches of drizzle for East Anglia,
01:27eastern Scotland for example. And when they've got the cloud or the clear spells overnight,
01:32well, it's going to be a warm night, uncomfortable in places for sleeping. 17, 18 Celsius, the
01:39minimum temperatures in a few spots in the south, mid-teens further north. And that breeze
01:45continues to pick up as we go into Friday morning. What we've got is high pressure to
01:50the east, we've got low pressure to the west, another low starting to develop towards the
01:55southwest of the UK. Now, this is still subject to some uncertainty despite the short timescale
02:01because the Met Office model deepens it much more than other models. So, well, it's a little
02:07bit to play for as far as this low is concerned and that will make a difference in terms of
02:12winds and rainfall distribution over Friday and Saturday. But nevertheless, a couple of
02:18lows to the west, increasing the isobars. And on Friday itself, actually, the strongest
02:23winds will be across west and northwest Wales. The risk of gusts of 50 miles an hour or so
02:29could impact travel and tourism. Also, during the morning, we've got these heavy showers
02:34and thunderstorms developing, particularly, not exclusively, across the Midlands into
02:39central and southern England during the morning, frequent lightning a possibility and 40 millimetres
02:44in a short space of time. That could cause impacts. But those showers and thunderstorms
02:48tend to ease as they make their way north-eastwards during the afternoon. Still some showers around,
02:54but also a lot of cloud. We've got that breeze. So, a humid day, yes, but not a particularly
03:00hot day. The temperature is limited by the cloud and the increased wind. Towards the
03:06southwest, the signs of some wetter weather on the way as we end Friday, some more persistent
03:12rain turning up across Cornwall, pushing quite quickly during Friday evening into Wales,
03:17then Northern Ireland, the rest of England as well. Now, ahead of this, there's the risk
03:21around midnight onwards, the east Anglia and the southeast of some really intense thunderstorms
03:26developing with large hail and frequent lightning. Details still to be ironed out, all dependent
03:33on the shape and position of the low pressure that I mentioned. And that is still subject
03:38to uncertainty. And thunderstorms, of course, are always quite tricky to predict a day or
03:43two in advance. But either way, there is the potential, even if the rainfall pattern might
03:49not look exactly like this, there's the potential for some heavy bursts of rain, some thunderstorms
03:54as we go through Friday night and Saturday morning. Now, for England and Wales, certainly
03:59it's going to be a very muggy night with temperatures staying at 18 or 19 Celsius. Scotland and
04:05Northern Ireland, 15, 16 Celsius. High dew points, high humidities and staying windy
04:12as well through the night with the risk of gales around some western coasts. Then as
04:17we go into Saturday, well, things quieten down eventually across England and Wales.
04:22It looks like it's going to turn into more typical sunny spells and showers after that
04:26overnight activity. But for Northern Ireland, for central and southern Scotland, we've still
04:30got bouts of rain and showers moving through along with a brisk wind. And the heaviest
04:35and most persistent rain will continue to affect eastern and northern Scotland at times
04:40on Saturday. Scotland and Northern Ireland prone to some persistent and heavy rain, 50
04:45to 80 millimetres in places, particularly over south-east facing hills. However, the
04:50wind coming in from the south-west will still contain humidity and it's still going to be
04:54warm when the sun comes through, 25, 26 Celsius for eastern England, low 20s elsewhere across
05:00the UK, unless we've got the persistent rain, in which case they will be, of course, more
05:05limited. So, plenty going on over the next few days, a quiet Thursday and then a lot
05:09to take note of heading into the weekend. Bye-bye.