Week ahead – An uncertain week
The weather patterns are messy this week and there is more uncertainty than usual thanks to a waving front – Alex Deakin tries to explain all.
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00:00Hello.
00:01Some weeks, the weather's fairly straightforward.
00:03This is not one of those weeks.
00:06It's complicated this week, and there's
00:08more uncertainty than usual.
00:10If you have plans this week, then please do keep up to date,
00:13because the day-to-day details will be varying.
00:16Why the uncertainty?
00:17Well, it's to do with this, this long weather front stretching
00:20out in the Atlantic.
00:21And in particular, these little bumps,
00:23they are what we call waves.
00:25And when waves are involved in the forecast,
00:28there's always more uncertainty.
00:30And in particular, Tuesday and Wednesday,
00:32just how far north these weather fronts get.
00:34And then on Thursday, weather, that weather front
00:37does indeed clear away to the east.
00:39After that, well, although low pressure
00:41hangs about close to northern Scotland,
00:44it does look as if high pressure will be moving in
00:47as we go towards the weekend, bringing a lot of dry weather,
00:50it looks like, as we head into what
00:52is, for some parts of the UK, a bank holiday weekend.
00:56However, as I said, there is a lot
00:58of uncertainty about the position of those weather
00:59fronts.
01:00But let's nevertheless rewind the clock
01:02and at least try and put a little bit of detail.
01:05Certainly, Tuesday looks like starting dry and bright
01:08for many across England and Wales,
01:09and northeast Scotland with some sunny spells.
01:11One weather front will bring some showery rain
01:13crossing Scotland.
01:14And then later on, we're looking at increasing cloud
01:16and outbreaks of rain coming into Wales and southwest
01:19England.
01:19Some heavy bursts of rain are possible here.
01:22Northern Ireland, just seeing one or two showers.
01:24Much of eastern England, where we could do with some rain,
01:27will, again, stay dry.
01:28And in the sunny spells, of course,
01:29East Anglia and the southeast, a pretty warm day
01:31with temperatures getting up into the mid or even high 20s.
01:35In fact, right across England and Wales
01:36will be quite a humid feel with temperatures
01:38in the mid-20s for many.
01:40And Scotland and Northern Ireland,
01:41seeing sunny spells and a few showers, temperatures
01:44here higher than on Monday.
01:47The day with the biggest uncertainty
01:49is probably Wednesday.
01:50And again, it's all to do with this waving weather front,
01:53just how far north it gets and exactly where it sits.
01:56Because it is likely to lie across some parts of England
01:59and Wales.
02:00And if you're stuck under it, well, it
02:02could just bring a pretty wet day, all day dull and damp.
02:06And the most likely position at the moment
02:08is somewhere across parts of south Wales, the Midlands,
02:11and parts of southwest England.
02:13A few showers elsewhere, but much of the rest of the UK
02:16will see some good spells of sunshine,
02:18a fresher feel for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
02:20And notice the winds here picking up,
02:23getting quite blustery in the far northwest later on.
02:25That's moving around an area of low pressure.
02:27Meanwhile, in contrast, across East Anglia and the southeast,
02:31with a bit of sunshine, we could be
02:33knocking on the door of 30 Celsius, a very warm day here.
02:38Then on Thursday, again, we're still
02:40talking about this waving weather front.
02:42It's still bringing us a few headaches and even more
02:45uncertainty about exactly where it's going to lie.
02:47It does look as if it may well be pushing off
02:49to the east at this stage.
02:51But if it is a little further west,
02:53it could bring some welcome rain across East Anglia
02:56and the southeast.
02:57And even the potential, if everything
02:59comes in for some thunderstorms with that humid air still
03:02in place, there could be some torrential downpours.
03:05But it may just drift away to the east,
03:08bringing a dry day for much of England and Wales,
03:10a few breaks of showery rain coming into the northwest.
03:13Temperatures a little down on Thursday,
03:16slightly fresher feel, but still a potential
03:18if that warm air is in place across East Anglia
03:20and the southeast to see temperatures
03:22in the mid or even high 20s with a bit of sunshine.
03:24As I said, though, quite a bit of uncertainty
03:26about the position of that weather front.
03:28It does look as if it's going to be out of the way by Friday.
03:31Low pressure up to the north.
03:33This weather front drifting across
03:34is just likely to bring a few showers.
03:36I suspect many places will be dry on Friday.
03:40However, there is still the possibility
03:43of that humid air close by to the southeast
03:45bringing the chance of some thundery showers.
03:49Again, any rain will be welcome in this part of the world.
03:52But if we do see some thunderstorms,
03:54they could be pretty lively.
03:56Elsewhere, I don't think we'll see too many thunderstorms,
03:57just a few showers possible.
03:59Many places dry and bright and reasonably fresh.
04:02Then into the weekend, as we saw earlier,
04:04it looks like this area of high pressure
04:06could start to move in and sit around, perhaps
04:10for all of the weekend, which is, as I said,
04:13for some parts of the UK a bank holiday.
04:15This chart shows that that is a decent likelihood, actually,
04:19with red being high pressure.
04:20The dates going along the top is showing the pressure trend
04:24that high pressure is likely to dominate
04:27as we go into the weekend, bringing a drier spell of weather
04:30after what's been a fairly showery week.
04:33But the position of that high will
04:36be crucial to the day-to-day details through the weekend.
04:39There is still the possibility of thundery showers coming up
04:42across the southeast.
04:43And weather fronts may bring some showery rain
04:45across the northwest as well.
04:47So as I said at the start, please
04:48make sure you stay up to date with the day-to-day details.
04:52Download the Met Office app, and you can watch the rainfall
04:55yourself on the radar.
04:56And make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channels,
04:59and then you'll constantly get those updates
05:01when we make a new forecast.