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00:00:00For the love of the horse, for generations to come.
00:00:28I want to tell you about a new wrinkle we're going to have in an upcoming TDN podcast sometime
00:00:32in December.
00:00:33Not a lot going on in racing.
00:00:35People are worried about the holidays.
00:00:37That will give us a chance to have you, the listener, the viewer, write to us and ask
00:00:42us questions.
00:00:44Anything you want to know, anything Randy Moss, you want to know from him, or Zoe Gabbin,
00:00:48or of course myself.
00:00:49We'd be more than glad to answer the questions and we hope to make a nice segment on the
00:00:53show.
00:00:54It'll likely air in December.
00:00:55So if you have questions, you can send them now, you can send them in a couple weeks.
00:00:59Write to Sue Finley, F-I-N-L-E-Y, at thetdn.com.
00:01:06Once again, that's Sue Finley, all one word, at thetdn.com.
00:01:10Look forward to hearing from you.
00:01:12You said new wrinkle.
00:01:13None of us need any new wrinkles.
00:01:15I have a question for Zoe.
00:01:21Why did you replace your Burt Reynolds picture with what appears to be the picture of a horse?
00:01:26Well, I was moving Burt for Sue because it's Breeders' Cup and she hates Burt Reynolds.
00:01:33So I moved him from my piano, but you can only see the piano on a single shot and we're
00:01:38all like slotted in.
00:01:40So actually, Burt's got prime viewing there right now.
00:01:44You were supposed to be looking at myself and Arrogate at the Dubai World Cup.
00:01:53So that's me about ready to interview Mike Smith.
00:01:56Like what the hell happened at the start, Mike, but well done for winning.
00:02:00So that's what's over here.
00:02:03What a pick.
00:02:04That's amazing.
00:02:05Yeah.
00:02:16As you might expect, it's going to be a Breeders' Cup edition.
00:02:19As myself, Randy Moss, and Zoe Cabin, we're going to do some Insta handicapping, see how
00:02:23many winners we can give out on the show.
00:02:26And then a little bit later, you're going to hear from Jerry Bailey, Randy's partner
00:02:29on the broadcast.
00:02:30And of course, one of the greatest jockeys that ever lived and knows an awful lot about
00:02:34the Breeders' Cup.
00:02:35All right.
00:02:36Let's start with Friday.
00:02:37Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.
00:02:39This race is an impossibility.
00:02:40It's just pure guesswork.
00:02:41If you ask me, with all the horses coming in from foreign places, you have horse shipping
00:02:47in from all over from England, Ireland, France, et cetera, I am going to go for Whistlejacket
00:02:52for Aiden P. O'Brien.
00:02:55Last time out, he was second in the middle park stakes at four to five.
00:02:59But the horse that beat him that day, Shadow of Light, came back and won the Darley Dewhurst.
00:03:04He's a legitimate grade one horse.
00:03:05He won the grade one Prix de Mornay.
00:03:07I think he's got the class.
00:03:08Ryan Moore certainly knows how to get it done when it comes to the Breeders' Cup.
00:03:12So I hope to start off my Breeders' Cup day with a winner in Whistlejacket.
00:03:16All right.
00:03:17This is not an impossibility, Bill.
00:03:19This is a free bingo square.
00:03:21Wow.
00:03:22The Japanese sent 19 horses to the Breeders' Cup.
00:03:25A lot of them are overmatched.
00:03:27Some of them look in really good spots.
00:03:29Ikoro Sig is a freaking rocket ship.
00:03:34You watch the videos of this horse.
00:03:35This horse can fly.
00:03:38And in his last race, he ran the fastest six furlongs in the history of the Japan Racing
00:03:43Association on turf, and he didn't break.
00:03:47And he still went a half in 43 and change from a standing start.
00:03:52They opened up like eight lengths on the rest of the field, he and another horse.
00:03:55And he kept running.
00:03:57He's two for two.
00:03:58He is a very fast horse.
00:04:01And I think he'll lead from start to finish.
00:04:03And to me, he's a single.
00:04:05Wow.
00:04:06I love that.
00:04:07Can I change my pick?
00:04:08Randy talked me into it.
00:04:10Yeah, right.
00:04:11Ikoro Sig.
00:04:13I like that horse.
00:04:14I like him a little bit better now.
00:04:16Thank you very much for that insight there, Randy.
00:04:19But I did pick Whistlejacket on top.
00:04:22My biggest question was, is he as quick as the rest?
00:04:26And after listening to Randy, maybe, maybe not.
00:04:29I mean, Asterius is a very nice horse for Archie Watson coming in, coming off back to
00:04:35back winds.
00:04:36He's quick.
00:04:37He makes all in his races over there.
00:04:39It's probably going to put him about third or fourth, but he's well-drawn with James
00:04:43Doyle.
00:04:44So watch out for him.
00:04:45But I think Randy's already winning.
00:04:47There's one for Randy, zero for us thus far already.
00:04:50Let's move on.
00:04:51All right.
00:04:52Greeter's Cup, Juvenile Fillies.
00:04:53The morning line favorite is Scottish Lassie on the outside.
00:04:57But I'm going to go with Immersive, who I think actually might be the favorite in here.
00:05:01Brad Cox is so hot right now.
00:05:03This is a very legitimate horse.
00:05:05Two straight grade one victories.
00:05:06He's already won at the mile and a 16th distance in the Alcibiades.
00:05:11Obviously a very talented horse.
00:05:12Manny Franco doesn't get many opportunities in Breeder's Cups.
00:05:15He's won for 26 lifetime, but he's a hell of a good jockey.
00:05:19And I don't think that's going to be a problem.
00:05:22Come on, Randy.
00:05:23I want to know all about American Bikini.
00:05:25Are we going thong or are we going, you know, what kind of bikini are we looking at here?
00:05:29You know, I've been saying, Zoe, that the Japanese, you know, they may, maybe they win
00:05:34two races.
00:05:35Maybe they win three at the Breeders' Cup.
00:05:36Who knows?
00:05:37And then maybe they might win the first two because American Bikini is a really, really
00:05:42nice filly.
00:05:43But here's my problem.
00:05:45My only problem with American Bikini, she's run three times.
00:05:48She's won twice.
00:05:50Both of her wins were when she set the pace.
00:05:53And the race she lost was when she didn't set the pace.
00:05:56Vodka with a twist is going to go from the inside with Ira Ed Ortiz.
00:06:00That's speed.
00:06:01Noncompliant will be close.
00:06:03That's Baffert.
00:06:04Maybe the other Baffert horse.
00:06:05Speed.
00:06:06American Bikini.
00:06:07Speed.
00:06:08I think you're looking at a very fast pace in here.
00:06:12So I'm going to play American Bikini in Exotics, but I'm looking for a closer in here.
00:06:18So I'm going to take a shot with the 10 to 1 horse, Quick Kick.
00:06:23I know the big fig from Scottish Lassie is tempting, but Quick Kick beat Scottish Lassie
00:06:29when they ran in a maiden race at Saratoga.
00:06:32And I think the race sets up for her and she's a good price.
00:06:35Dylan Davis is riding lights out.
00:06:37She got a six and a half on the thorograph.
00:06:38I can't get my glasses straight.
00:06:40I thought I was looking smarter.
00:06:42Now I just look drunk because they're wonky and it's first thing in the morning.
00:06:46I like Quick Kick.
00:06:47I'm going with the favorite in here, Scottish Lassie.
00:06:51I've loved her since her debut.
00:06:53Sky's the limit for her with Jorge Ebru.
00:06:56We've seen the McKinsey, the stock McKinsey just get better and better.
00:07:01She's well drawn.
00:07:02Three and a half on the thorograph.
00:07:04Hopefully that's not too quick for her.
00:07:08American Bikini, I will say one thing, has looked terrific training over the track at
00:07:13Del Mar.
00:07:14So that's a big one.
00:07:15Let's move on now to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
00:07:19And the eight to five favorite is Lake Victoria.
00:07:21I'm going to go with the favorite here for Aiden O'Brien.
00:07:23Again, a class angle.
00:07:24This horse has won two consecutive group one races.
00:07:29One thing that you have to know about this horse is it's never gone beyond seven furlongs.
00:07:32This race is a mile, but the European horses that are running close to the distances of
00:07:39the race never seem to have any problems stretching out.
00:07:41I think Aiden O'Brien's going to have a huge Breeders' Cup.
00:07:44Went wrong with Ryan Moore.
00:07:45It's interesting though that you would think this race would be dominated by the Europeans.
00:07:50The U.S. based horses have won nine of the last ten.
00:07:53I think that's going to change with Lake Victoria.
00:07:56Ooh, I mean, Lake Victoria is the one to beat on paper.
00:08:02She's well-drawn.
00:08:03You're getting Ryan Moore there.
00:08:04What do they want?
00:08:0513 of 17.
00:08:08Cynthia is interesting for me.
00:08:10She comes in with good numbers for trainer Billy Mott.
00:08:15Thought process.
00:08:17She's very good.
00:08:18She's California based.
00:08:19Is she good enough is my big, she's got to make a big jump forward, but she's trained
00:08:24really, really well.
00:08:26So I think she'll be my top pick over the Aiden O'Brien's because I think she's going
00:08:30to get the jump.
00:08:31And then if you want a long shot in there, throw in the 13, Vixen for trainer Mark Cassie.
00:08:37She comes out of a sneaky good race last out.
00:08:40I have two fascinating rabbit hole stats in here for me.
00:08:44First of all, out of the last 15 Breeders' Cup races on turf at a mile or longer, European
00:08:52based horses or Japanese have won 13.
00:08:56The only two exceptions were in this race where Americans, as Bill pointed out, have
00:09:02been dominating as of late.
00:09:04The other interesting rabbit hole stat, two-year-old turf horses at the Breeders' Cup who made
00:09:10their most recent starts in California are 0 for 58.
00:09:17Complete throwouts, but, you know, I'm scratching my head here because visually thought process
00:09:25looks as good in her races as anybody else.
00:09:28So, you know, I think this is a really solid exacto Lake Victoria and thought process.
00:09:35The thing about Lake Victoria, watching all these European races, looking at all the European
00:09:39form, you see all these two-year-old fillies who run really well in Europe.
00:09:45They run really well in group twos and group threes and, oh, they're nice.
00:09:48And then all of a sudden they get beat seven lengths by Lake Victoria.
00:09:52I've seen that like four or five times.
00:09:55So obviously Lake Victoria, she's the early favorite right now for the 1,000 guineas.
00:09:59She's probably going to be voted the champion two-year-old filly in Europe.
00:10:03We don't often get those over here to run in the Breeders' Cup.
00:10:05I love her post draw.
00:10:08Ryan Moore says there's no problem with one mile.
00:10:11So I like Lake Victoria over thought process in a dead solid exacto.
00:10:17Let's move on now to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which is the ninth race on the Friday card
00:10:22at Del Mar.
00:10:23Bob Baffert has won this race five times, but Todd Pletcher has won the last two.
00:10:28This is such an obvious pick.
00:10:29I, you know, I'm wasting time, you know, telling people why, because it's obvious.
00:10:33East Avenue was a very, very talented horse.
00:10:36Randy was talking about watching the replays of that Japanese horse.
00:10:40Look back at the replay of his win in the Breeders' Futurity.
00:10:43He was just so dominant over that field.
00:10:45I like the fact that he drew the one post.
00:10:47I think that's going to help him.
00:10:49Tyler Gathleon can either go to the lead or just take a look, and if he has to, sit back.
00:10:54This is a nice field.
00:10:55Chancellor McPatrick is the other horse, obviously, that's going to take a lot of money.
00:10:59I just have a personal prejudice against horses that come from so far behind, because so many
00:11:05things can go wrong.
00:11:07And it's not that he breaks badly.
00:11:09In the last race in the Champagne, he broke on top, and then it's like he took himself
00:11:13back.
00:11:14So, he's an interesting horse.
00:11:15Chad Brown is very high on him.
00:11:17But I think East Avenue is going to win this, and I think we'll still be talking a lot about
00:11:21him come March, April, and May next year.
00:11:24Yeah, the problem with Chancellor McPatrick is not just that there's so much that he has
00:11:30to overcome from back in the pack.
00:11:32It's that he is now running on the second shortest stretch run of any major racetrack
00:11:38in America.
00:11:39Only Gulfstream Park has a shorter stretch run than Delmar.
00:11:43And Chancellor McPatrick has been either last or next to last early in all of his races
00:11:47so far.
00:11:48I say all of them, all three of them.
00:11:51East Avenue draws the rail, I think for a horse with his running style, that's good.
00:11:55What's interesting in here, to me, is anyone going to try to hook him?
00:12:00They know he's the favorite.
00:12:02They know he's been in front every step without challenges in each of his two races.
00:12:07You know, Bob Baffert has horses in here that have a lot of speed.
00:12:10Getaway Car has a tremendous amount of speed.
00:12:13They tried to raid him last time behind Citizen Bull, and it didn't really work.
00:12:17I think he's probably going to be a better horse around one turn.
00:12:21But might they decide that really the only way he can win and the only way to beat East
00:12:26Avenue is to go after him early?
00:12:29Now, Brendan Walsh says that East Avenue doesn't have to be in front.
00:12:32All trainers say that.
00:12:36That's the potential Achilles heel, I think, for East Avenue.
00:12:40But you know, an East Avenue Jonathan's Way exacto, one way or the other, I think is pretty
00:12:47good in here, just because Chancellor McPatrick is going to be, I think, compromised by the
00:12:51short stretch.
00:12:53Jonathan's Way is the real deal.
00:12:55Having seen him in person at Saratoga, he looks like a man amongst boys.
00:12:59Now, I know East Avenue does as well.
00:13:02There's a ton of speed in here for East Avenue, and they are going to be gunning for him.
00:13:06Citizen Bull's going to go as well.
00:13:08Jonathan's Way does not need the lead.
00:13:11He showed that in his debut, overcoming an awful lot.
00:13:14So I like him.
00:13:16I do like East Avenue.
00:13:18Chancellor McPatrick, watching him train at Del Mar, he's just a little bit sharper than
00:13:24I've seen him, because I watched him all summer at Saratoga.
00:13:28Last time he broke with the gate.
00:13:31He broke with everybody else and took himself back.
00:13:33I think incrementally, each time this horse runs, he's going to gradually find himself
00:13:38a little bit closer.
00:13:39I'm taking Chancellor McPatrick on top.
00:13:41I don't care about the 919 feet stretch.
00:13:45Santa Anita is 990.
00:13:47It's 919 here.
00:13:49I'm trusting in Pratt and going Chancellor McPatrick.
00:13:52It's going to be a very, very good race.
00:13:56Tenth race, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.
00:13:58Unlike the Juvenile Fillies Turf, this one has been dominated by Europeans.
00:14:0317 runnings, only four have been won by U.S.-based horses over that course of time.
00:14:09I'm going to take a U.S.-based horse here.
00:14:11A little bit of a wise guy play, I suppose, but I'll give Menti a chance, the full brother
00:14:16to fierceness.
00:14:19The one race he ran bad in was the Hopeful, and then he came right back and rebounded
00:14:23in the Futurity, winning at six furlongs.
00:14:25Got a good thoroughgraft figure, got a good buyer figure.
00:14:28Question is whether or not he can stretch out from six furlongs to a mile in 16th, but
00:14:32his big brother certainly doesn't have any problem running at a distance, so you would
00:14:36think that he wouldn't either.
00:14:38New Century is the European to beat, I think, after that very nice win, and then Summer
00:14:43Stakes at Woodbine, where he got out of the gate kind of slow and had a bad trip.
00:14:48But I'll go with Menti as a price play.
00:14:50Okay, then we'll go ladies first in here.
00:14:53I like your pick, Menti.
00:14:55He actually ran a six on the thoroughgrafts.
00:14:57He's yet to stretch out.
00:15:00He's not going to be on one of my picks, but I can't talk you off him.
00:15:04Listen, New Century is the horse to beat.
00:15:06His race at Woodbine was eye-catching.
00:15:09Alcudra, Dreamon, they're both in here, so they're all with a chance, but he absolutely
00:15:14ran off and hid.
00:15:16Last time out, we mentioned that Euros have got a great, even better than the Phillies,
00:15:2013 of 17 in this race, so he's without question the horse to beat in here, even though Chad
00:15:26Brown has Zulu Kingdom, is that his name?
00:15:31He's got him in here.
00:15:33He's a little low on numbers, but the class is there, so I have a big question mark by
00:15:38him.
00:15:39I have a long shot for you.
00:15:41So Tano Carnival, a two-year-old colt by Kitazan Black.
00:15:46If you watched his debut where he won by seven, he absolutely ran off and hid.
00:15:51He can go left-handed.
00:15:52He can go right-handed.
00:15:54He's got a decent enough figure on thoroughgraft.
00:15:57Brings in Rachel King, who's an English girl.
00:16:00She's been riding over there in Japan.
00:16:02She sat on him for the first time on the turf course the other day, and he looked really
00:16:06good.
00:16:07He draws the one hole, which I have no problem with, and he's 20-1 in the morning line, which
00:16:12I absolutely love.
00:16:15So it's going to be between the favorite and Santono Carnival.
00:16:20Zoe picks a Japanese horse, and I don't.
00:16:23Wow.
00:16:24Unusual.
00:16:25So, look, I was torn before the draw between, obviously, New Century and Alcadra, who both
00:16:35ran so well in the summer stakes.
00:16:37And Alcadra beat New Century twice, actually, before they came to Woodbine.
00:16:44And then Andre Matisse, who I thought might have been better than either of those two
00:16:49just based on European form.
00:16:51So then a couple things happen at the draw.
00:16:54Andre Matisse draws post 13, which in this race is a real, real difficult post to overcome.
00:17:02But then the real head scratcher for me is that William Buick, who had ridden Alcadra
00:17:08in his last four races and also had ridden Amore City in his last three, chose to ride
00:17:15Amore City instead of Alcadra.
00:17:17Now, I'm guessing he had his choice.
00:17:20I don't know that for a fact.
00:17:22But normally, when he's been riding two different horses, Charlie Appleby will let William take
00:17:27his pick of the two that he wants to ride.
00:17:31And for the life of me, I can't figure out why he thinks Amore City at 10 to 1 has a
00:17:37better shot than Alcadra at 4 to 1.
00:17:40But clearly, he does.
00:17:42So that lowers Alcadra a little bit, in my opinion.
00:17:46So I like New Century.
00:17:49I love the way he ran.
00:17:50I'm with Zoe.
00:17:51I love the way he ran in the summer stakes at Woodbine.
00:17:55Good number.
00:17:57And I think he's clicking on all cylinders right now.
00:18:00The TDN Writers' Room is brought to you by Keeneland, who saw 58 of its graduates entered
00:18:06into the Breeders' Cup just the other day.
00:18:08We are just a week away from the Keeneland November sale that promises to be electric.
00:18:14Just look at a few of these mares appearing in TDN ads next week.
00:18:19Grade 1 Stakes Winner, Beaute Cachet, was the winner of the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland.
00:18:25We have Roses for Deborah, who was a Stakes Winner at ages 3, 4, and 5.
00:18:31And we also have a complete dispersal of Sienna Farms breeding stock after the very sad loss
00:18:37of Anthony Manganero.
00:18:39What a great guy he was.
00:18:41The complete dispersal of the breeding stock of Stuart Janney as well.
00:18:46It all gets started on November the 5th.
00:18:48We'll be right back after this message from Keeneland.
00:18:53Looking for bloodstock that shapes the world?
00:18:56You can find it here.
00:18:59Foundation mares that will shape the breed.
00:19:02Weanlings with prime potential.
00:19:04Your next moment in the winner's circle.
00:19:06It's all waiting for you here at the World's Marketplace.
00:19:11Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale, where the future is found.
00:19:16Beginning Tuesday, November 5th.
00:19:25This week's Fastest Horse of the Week, as always, is brought to you by the fast sires
00:19:28at Windstar Farm, and specifically this week, a sire that has had Breeders' Cup success
00:19:34that would be the fastest son of Into Mischief.
00:19:36Life is good.
00:19:37The winner of the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile just three years ago this week here at Del
00:19:43Mar by five and a half lengths, the biggest margin at that Breeders' Cup in 2021.
00:19:48Got a 1.12 buyer speed figure, and oh, by the way, he comes back and he sets the pace
00:19:52in the Breeders' Cup Classic the next year, which was Flightline's Breeders' Cup Classic.
00:19:57And his first foals are looking pretty good, too.
00:19:59They'll be on offer at Fasig-Tipton and Keeneland November.
00:20:03And based on the sales of his in-foal mares last year, which went for up to $1.2 million,
00:20:11those will be in demand.
00:20:13Three-time Great One winner, Life is Good, stands at Windstar for a fee of $75,000.
00:20:21Fastest horse of the week with all the really top-notch names preparing for the Breeders'
00:20:24Cup.
00:20:25A couple of horses that we haven't talked about yet before.
00:20:27A tie, actually, with buyer speed figures of 99.
00:20:31First of all, Tarantino, who won an allowance race at Santa Anita October the 26th, an original
00:20:38yearling purchase by the Avengers and formerly trained by Bob Baffert.
00:20:42Then he bounced around a little bit.
00:20:43Rudy Brissett sold a couple of times.
00:20:46He wins that allowance race at 13-1 odds for his new trainer, Peter Urton, who claimed
00:20:51him for David Bernstein at Rockingham Ranch back in July at Del Mar for $40,000.
00:20:58The other one, Determined Kingdom.
00:21:00Only at Keeneland will a race fill that's for non-winners of four other than.
00:21:05Allowance race at Keeneland the day before on October 25th, Determined Kingdom at five
00:21:09and a half on the turf, won it by two and a half points, matching that 99 buyer speed
00:21:15figure.
00:21:16Cole, Fastest Horses of the Week.
00:21:26This week's Guest of the Week and another than my NBC broadcast partner, 10 minutes
00:21:31ago, we were sitting back in a room in this trailer at Del Mar together.
00:21:36Debating the merits of City of Troy, and now Jerry Bailey has taken a spot.
00:21:39We thought it'd be better to separate.
00:21:41Jerry Bailey's taking a spot, obviously, in front of the scenic racetrack at Del Mar.
00:21:47So Jerry, let's continue the conversation we were just having 10 minutes ago.
00:21:53Probably the number one storyline of this entire Breeders' Cup is City of Troy coming
00:21:58to the Classic, running on dirt for the first time.
00:22:00As the five to two program favorite, what are your thoughts?
00:22:07So thank you for having me, first of all.
00:22:11And I was more convinced about City of Troy's chances in the Classic this year before I
00:22:20saw him this morning.
00:22:22He still is a good looking horse, but he's more feminine than I thought he would be.
00:22:27He's more long and lanky, more turfy, if you will, if I can use that word, turfy.
00:22:33He's built like a turf horse.
00:22:35So it kind of still begs the question, how effective can he be on dirt versus how effective
00:22:43he has been all of his life on the turf?
00:22:46That's my biggest question.
00:22:47Have you been listening to Randy for the last two weeks?
00:22:51You said you've been sitting right next to him.
00:22:53Now you sound like Randy.
00:22:54You're killing me, Jerry.
00:22:55Believe me, I love the horse.
00:23:00I think it's a great story and I would love to see him win.
00:23:04But I think the biggest question anybody has, and it wasn't really taken from my mind after
00:23:09seeing him, is will he dirt?
00:23:13I actually didn't, obviously, I didn't make it down to Delmar this morning, but on watching
00:23:17him canter around there, it was pretty obvious watching him go down the lane.
00:23:24He was on his left lead and you could just see that high, turfy action.
00:23:28I do still like him in the classic, but I can definitely see what you saw out there
00:23:34seeing him in the flesh.
00:23:35I still want to touch him.
00:23:37I just want to touch him.
00:23:39Did you touch him?
00:23:41I did not.
00:23:42I was sitting in the grandstand here watching him go by.
00:23:44Is anyone planning on touching him, Randy?
00:23:46Are you going to touch him?
00:23:49Jerry's hand would have gotten wet if he had touched him this morning.
00:23:54He got kind of hot.
00:23:55He was kind of hot this morning.
00:23:56It's a cool morning.
00:23:57Listen, I'm freezing.
00:23:59It's 20 degrees colder than my usual climate.
00:24:04I think if he can pull this off and win it, he becomes a horse of the decades, really,
00:24:10of the ages.
00:24:12I don't think there's a lot of downside.
00:24:13He's still a great horse with a great list of accomplishments on the turf.
00:24:19It's a lot of blue sky for Coolmore.
00:24:21If they can pull it off, they've done something spectacular.
00:24:24Jerry, that's one of the things about this Breeders' Cup Classic.
00:24:27There's so many mystery horses in the Breeders' Cup as a whole.
00:24:31I don't know if you've had a lot of time or effort put into watching the Japanese horses,
00:24:36but I was going down picking.
00:24:38I don't know how to pick these horses.
00:24:41I have no idea.
00:24:42Randy's a big Dermasotagaki fan.
00:24:44He's the only one I definitely don't like this year.
00:24:47Do you have some sense of feeling of how they're going to do?
00:24:50I think it's going to be one extreme or the other.
00:24:52They're going to clean our clock or they're not going to do a thing.
00:24:55I actually think it's going to be both.
00:24:57I think there's some races where they're probably overmatched, but I think there's some races
00:25:00where they look pretty strong.
00:25:03How can I not have a little sense of how they're going to do?
00:25:07Not conferring with Masan for the last two weeks and watching Japanese videos, courtesy
00:25:12of Randy, because he's tuned in to these Japanese videos.
00:25:16Yeah, I've seen a lot of them, and I think there's several of them that have an excellent
00:25:20chance.
00:25:21What was interesting, guys, I've been sort of having fun with people saying, okay, I'm
00:25:26going to set the over-under for wins by Japanese horses at the Breeders' Cup.
00:25:30I'll set it at 1.5, so tell me if you would go over or under.
00:25:35I did that with an NBC Peacock gambling podcast earlier this morning.
00:25:42The guy is a football better, but he gets on his computer and he said, the prop is 2.5.
00:25:50That's the over-under right now in Vegas or maybe in the UK.
00:25:53I don't know what he was looking at exactly for wins by Japan in the Breeders' Cup.
00:25:58Yeah, Jerry and I have been perusing all of these Japanese videos.
00:26:04We have to turn down the volume because the Japanese race calls get a little bit annoying,
00:26:10but yeah, it's been pretty remarkable.
00:26:12Jerry, what's your favorite thing to do when you come to these big meetings?
00:26:18Because you and Randy are like the dynamic duo.
00:26:21Honestly, it's really fun to look, but what's one of the favorite things that you get to
00:26:26do specifically with Randy?
00:26:30Does he lead you down the rabbit hole?
00:26:31Does he drag you with him?
00:26:33Does he put you on his shoulder or do you just like going out and seeing all the trainers
00:26:36and the horses?
00:26:37No, the trainers, seeing them are fun and the horses, but it is so time consuming and
00:26:44you don't get a lot of work done because everybody's saying hello and it's just, we're distracted
00:26:50by so many different people so many times that most of the real work is done back in
00:26:56the trailer or before we get here, actually.
00:26:59Yeah.
00:27:00I don't know how we-
00:27:02Look, there's no way to sit next to Randy and not be sucked into a little bit of a rabbit
00:27:07hole.
00:27:08It's when he goes silent for like four minutes, I have to look over and say, I don't know
00:27:12what he's doing, but he's way down there.
00:27:17So you've got the infamous Randy Moss rabbit holes to deal with as well as we do.
00:27:21Hey Jerry, I want to ask you now some historical things about your riding career and riding
00:27:28in the Breeders' Cup.
00:27:29Is there any one Breeders' Cup race where you look back and you talk to your children
00:27:35and maybe your grandchildren someday, say, you know what, I made the difference in that
00:27:39race.
00:27:40Is there anyone that you look, for instance, most proud of and that you don't think the
00:27:43horse would have won if another rider was riding?
00:27:46Yeah, yeah.
00:27:49I think it's probably Six Perfections in the mile.
00:27:55I remember I asked Pascoe Barry, I said, I just want to know one thing because she had
00:27:59drawn post 12.
00:28:02And I asked Pascoe Barry, I said, is her first step from the gate decent?
00:28:07And if I ask her leaving the gate, can I turn her back off again and get her to relax during
00:28:12the middle part of the race?
00:28:13And he said, yeah, no problem.
00:28:15She'll break quick enough and you can do what you want early and she'll still relax for
00:28:18you.
00:28:19And I said, that's all I need to know.
00:28:21And my good friend Gary Young, after they drew, called and said, I'm sorry, he calls
00:28:26me Beetle, Beetle Bailey, he asked for 30 years.
00:28:29He said, Beetle, I'm sorry about your post.
00:28:31I said, don't feel bad for me.
00:28:32Feel bad for the guy inside me because I'm going to shut him off the first jump to get
00:28:35over and save some ground.
00:28:40Jerry and I obviously, I mean, we couldn't do this job really if we weren't good friends
00:28:44because we sit next to, we go to Starbucks in the morning together in the same car and
00:28:49then we sit in the trailer for hours and hours and hours together all day long going
00:28:53over all these horses and watching videos and talking to people on the phone and going
00:28:58to the backside, you know, and then meetings and then the show.
00:29:01And they call us Bert and Ernie at NBC because we're always right there together.
00:29:07He's more Bert and I'm more Ernie.
00:29:09But so I've heard a lot of the stories and probably the one that I enjoy the most is
00:29:16the Arkong story.
00:29:19First of all, getting the mount on Arkong is kind of interesting because of one horse
00:29:26that sort of keeps popping up in Jerry Bailey's background and a horse that you never even
00:29:32rode.
00:29:33Tell us about how you got the mount.
00:29:35Yes.
00:29:36So many people ask me who my favorite horse is and everybody assumes it's Cigar.
00:29:42It's Devil Is Due because Mike Smith was on Devil Is Due throughout most of his career
00:29:48and before the Arkong race, the classic of 93, he had the call on Arkong and Alan Jerkins
00:29:55at the last, you know, I won't say last moment, but the last week decided he was going to
00:29:59run Devil Is Due.
00:30:00So Mike had to ride him.
00:30:01It left Arkong for me.
00:30:03And we know the result.
00:30:04He won at 133 to one.
00:30:06And Mike was also riding Cigar and going to the Naira Mile and Alan decided to run Devil
00:30:13Is Due in that race.
00:30:15So Mike had to ride him and left Cigar for me.
00:30:17So because of Devil Is Due, Jerry Bailey got Arkong in the classic and Cigar.
00:30:23So he may be my favorite horse.
00:30:26So Arkong on Breeders' Cup Classic Day.
00:30:30So I was always a student of the past performances in video.
00:30:35I really didn't think I was quite as physically gifted as some of my contemporaries, you know,
00:30:41Angel and Lafitte and guys like that.
00:30:43But I thought I could out prepare them and out think them in a race.
00:30:47So I was heavily, heavily dependent on, you know, PPs and video and of which there were
00:30:52really none on Arkong.
00:30:53At that time, you couldn't get videos and it only had a tagline on the racing form,
00:30:58you know, like back early and finished well late, stuff like that.
00:31:01Nothing in the middle of the race.
00:31:03So I thought, you know, listen, I'll just ask Fab, Andre Fab, the trainer, you know,
00:31:06exactly where he wants to be, where he's most comfortable and how much of a pace I
00:31:11can ask him to keep during the middle of the race.
00:31:15And I walked into the paddock.
00:31:16There's like a thousand people in there at Santa Anita and you can't find anybody.
00:31:20So I couldn't find him.
00:31:21And I thought I was kind of beginning to panic a little bit and I thought, you know, I'll
00:31:25just, I'll just go to the horse.
00:31:27I'll ask the assistant or the groom, you know, the questions I need answered.
00:31:31And so I get there and I'm asking him all these questions and they speak nothing but
00:31:36French.
00:31:37So I don't know, I don't know Jack about this horse when I'm getting on him and we go around
00:31:42the ring and head for the tunnel.
00:31:43And all of a sudden I hear the trainer Fab say, Jerry, Jerry.
00:31:48And I said, oh, great.
00:31:49I can, I can ask him, you know, what I need to ask him.
00:31:52He said, good luck.
00:31:53That's all he said.
00:31:55So I was pretty much flying blind as I walked on the track and saw 99 to one on the tote
00:32:00board.
00:32:01And I thought, you know what?
00:32:02I'll just, he said the European horse, I'll take him back to the back, try and save some
00:32:06ground and just finishing up to where I'm not embarrassed.
00:32:09And that was exactly my mind thought going into the gate.
00:32:12Jerry, for this year's classic, if a magic wand allowed you to come back, get out of
00:32:18retirement and ride one horse in the classic this year, who would you pick?
00:32:25I think one of the most interesting horses to me is Arthur's ride.
00:32:30I think he's a very quality horse when he can be comfortable on the lead.
00:32:34And I think he might have a comfortable lead this year, uh, with skippy long stockings
00:32:39going to the mile door, not leaving the picture of a month ago.
00:32:43I think it leaves really the speed of the race to Arthur's ride.
00:32:48I don't think anybody coming off of that poor performance in the goal, jockey club goal
00:32:53cup at Saratoga.
00:32:54I don't think anybody with the early speed to challenge him will really want to, uh,
00:33:00thinking he may not be a threat.
00:33:02And I think he gets a comfortable lead.
00:33:04I mean, obviously he's a, he's a bit of a long shot, but look at fierceness.
00:33:07If he doesn't break well, people think he's over all those shenanigans.
00:33:11I'm not convinced of it.
00:33:12If things go wrong early for him, maybe he doesn't show up again.
00:33:15City of Troy's got a really a poor post for a horse that has that many questions with
00:33:20dirt and traffic.
00:33:23You know, the, the Japanese horse, he, uh, forever young, I like him, but he's going
00:33:26to navigate through a lot of traffic too.
00:33:28So I would pick the horse that I think it's the most friendly trip with quality.
00:33:32And that's Arthur's right.
00:33:34Is he going to be your pick?
00:33:37I don't know yet that we still got four days.
00:33:41A lot of, a lot of stuff can, a lot of stuff can happen in 30 seconds around the track.
00:33:45You know that.
00:33:46All right.
00:33:47I have a question.
00:33:48What is the one place?
00:33:50I don't really want to ask you about a race that you haven't won because you've won pretty
00:33:54much everything, but what's one place that maybe you wish you had ridden at or would
00:34:00like to now, if you could go back in time to ride a race, it could be anywhere in the
00:34:05world.
00:34:06Yeah.
00:34:07I, I would like to have ridden the arc really to me.
00:34:11Yeah.
00:34:12I mean, if I look back at my statistics, I'm much more successful on the dirt than the
00:34:15grass, but I think I felt more comfortable on the grass.
00:34:18I felt that things came easier to me in grass races than dirt races.
00:34:25And that's one race that, and it was always on a big weekend here.
00:34:28And I never had the option to ride a decent chance horse in the race.
00:34:32So yeah, that would, that would be it for me.
00:34:35If you weren't sitting next to Randy every other weekend doing NBC, what, what would
00:34:40you be doing?
00:34:41Oh, that's easy.
00:34:42I'd be playing golf.
00:34:43Golf.
00:34:44I can answer that for him.
00:34:45He won't gamble on the horses, or at least not very much.
00:34:51We gamble occasionally, but you know, I'm a six handicap right now.
00:34:58I've been as low as a four, but it's it, you know, it's, it comes and goes.
00:35:02So it's, it's depends on the week and the month, you say, you know, gamble, but we've
00:35:07seen all these broadcasts where you and Randy have these side bets for, you know, for whatever
00:35:13the prize is like a Coca-Cola or something like that.
00:35:16Cause I'm still waiting.
00:35:19Well, I've still got his dollar in my Apple pay because I don't use Apple pay.
00:35:24So that dollar of Randy's is still in there, but he's probably slabby for a long time.
00:35:31We were really close.
00:35:32I think he's probably slightly ahead at this point, but if, if, if in terms of dollars,
00:35:36it wouldn't be more than 20, I'll guarantee it.
00:35:38I tried paying him with a ruble one time.
00:35:41It didn't go over very well.
00:35:47It was right after the Sochi Olympics.
00:35:49I tried to pay him in a ruble.
00:35:51No.
00:35:52You know, Joe, you said your week, your day hasn't started really well.
00:35:57Your week's not going great.
00:35:58I got here yesterday to find the Starbucks near us is closed.
00:36:02It's something else now.
00:36:03So, so my week has not started out very good at all.
00:36:06It's the high class problems that we have.
00:36:09Well, it's only going to get better from here.
00:36:11And you've made me smile for the first time today, which is awesome.
00:36:17Before we started riding together in the mornings to the racetrack, Jerry and I used to drive
00:36:22separately.
00:36:23And, uh, Oh, there he goes.
00:36:26I told you it could go at any moment.
00:36:29It's really trying to make me make, make my day there.
00:36:32Just drop right into his lap.
00:36:34Okay.
00:36:35I'm going to hold it.
00:36:37Are we good now?
00:36:38Yeah.
00:36:39Yeah.
00:36:40Good now.
00:36:41So, uh, if there was a time when we would drive to Starbucks separately and the, uh,
00:36:46the most fun part was the drive from downtown Baltimore up to the Starbucks close to Pimlico,
00:36:54because it's kind of like if you've ever driven that highway or whatever that interstate is
00:36:57going North, it's like a race car thing, right?
00:37:00There's and all that.
00:37:02And so, uh, we would, uh, famously race to Starbucks and we'd be going 85, 90 racing
00:37:12each other, swerving through traffic.
00:37:15And the deal was whoever won got to buy because Jerry can't stand for anybody to pay for anything
00:37:25for him.
00:37:26Right?
00:37:27He always, he doesn't, he always wants to be the one to pay.
00:37:30He doesn't want anybody to pay for him.
00:37:33And so when I beat him to Starbucks, I would get to go up to the counter at Starbucks and
00:37:37say, I've got his coffee.
00:37:39He's a little down on his luck right now.
00:37:41You know, he's not doing too good.
00:37:43Jerry, don't worry.
00:37:44I got your coffee.
00:37:46And we would have, we've had a lot of fun over the years with all kinds of things.
00:37:50Who wrote the better race on the drive up the freeway?
00:37:53Did you want to tell you?
00:37:54So I will tell you right now that if Randy was a lot smaller, he would have been a really
00:37:58good jockey.
00:37:59He drives like a madman.
00:38:05We don't want the authorities to know about Jerry, before we let you go, we got to touch
00:38:10on cigar and yeah, it's gotta be one of your greatest readers cup moments that in the year
00:38:15he won in 95 and then one of the biggest disappointments in 96.
00:38:20What was when he was there, what was the difference between the 96 cigar and the 95 cigar?
00:38:28Probably the miles on him.
00:38:30You know, he didn't, he didn't miss too many chances and Alan Paulson, his owner was a
00:38:34very sporting guy and he didn't hesitate to take on any risk, any challenge.
00:38:41His philosophy, I can remember he told me, he said, Jerry, it's all risk reward with
00:38:44me.
00:38:45If the reward's great enough, we're going to take the risk.
00:38:47And he, you know, he bounced around Hollywood Park, back to Boston, to Dubai, Chicago.
00:38:52I mean, he crisscrossed this country and crisscrossed the world.
00:38:55So I believe in the, in the classic, I'm sorry, in the Pacific classic at Del Mar,
00:39:04a lot of that was my fault.
00:39:05I asked him to go too fast.
00:39:07I was afraid to get trapped in behind Siphon, who had just beat another Paulson horse, Jerry
00:39:13at Hollywood.
00:39:14But I asked him to go pretty fast in that race early, but he didn't want to go in the
00:39:17gate in that race.
00:39:19And he had never done that before.
00:39:21So I could tell something was a little bit different, a little bit off.
00:39:24And I just think, you know, the amount of miles, you know, accumulated.
00:39:29So I give a horse like Tisnell a lot of credit.
00:39:32Maybe he didn't take on the challenges Cigar did, but he won back to back, which is really
00:39:36hard to do.
00:39:37Jerry Bailey, thank you so much for giving us a few minutes of your time in this busy
00:39:42week.
00:39:43It's always fun to go down memory lane with you.
00:39:45And keep an eye on this Randy guy, I tell you, he, he's him and his rabbit holes.
00:39:52We love him and we hate him.
00:39:53So let's get him carrots for Christmas.
00:39:56That's all.
00:39:57All right.
00:39:58Jerry, thanks so much for joining us.
00:40:00You're welcome.
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00:41:35As you guys all know, I pride myself in knowing horse flesh, best horse, best looking horse
00:41:41always wins.
00:41:42Right.
00:41:43What about the wiener dog races?
00:41:45Let's see if I can pick the winner of the wiener dog races in this week's edition of
00:41:50First Things First.
00:41:51I start off with a post parade.
00:41:53Okay.
00:41:54This is the field.
00:41:57What's your name?
00:42:00Rowdy.
00:42:01Rowdy.
00:42:02Mika.
00:42:03Mika.
00:42:04Who's this little fella?
00:42:05Ocha.
00:42:06Ocha.
00:42:07Hello.
00:42:08Who are you?
00:42:09That's Abby.
00:42:10Oh, she's got a little dog.
00:42:11Who's this little guy?
00:42:12Noodle.
00:42:13Noodle.
00:42:14Hi, Noodle.
00:42:15And who's this?
00:42:16Stout.
00:42:17Stout.
00:42:18Hi, Stout.
00:42:19This is Spicetown right here.
00:42:20What's his name?
00:42:21Chorizo.
00:42:22Chorizo.
00:42:23AKA Spicetown.
00:42:24And this is?
00:42:25Chewy.
00:42:26Hi, Chewy.
00:42:27Chewbacca.
00:42:28Hi, Chewy.
00:42:29All right.
00:42:30Good luck, guys.
00:42:31And they're off.
00:42:32And right to the front.
00:42:33It's Chorizo.
00:42:35And a late surge by Chewy.
00:42:36But it looks like it was Chorizo the Spicy.
00:42:37Well, it was Chorizo who got the photo finish here in the Halloweener Fest race.
00:42:38What were you guys' names?
00:42:39Vanessa.
00:42:40Francisco.
00:42:41Was this his first time racing today?
00:42:42Second.
00:42:43Second time.
00:42:44Yeah.
00:42:45Has he won like that before?
00:42:46No.
00:42:47This is his first time?
00:42:48No.
00:42:49No.
00:42:50No.
00:42:51No.
00:42:52No.
00:42:53No.
00:42:54No.
00:42:55No.
00:42:56No.
00:42:57No.
00:42:58No.
00:42:59No.
00:43:00No.
00:43:01No.
00:43:02No.
00:43:03No.
00:43:04No.
00:43:05No.
00:43:06No.
00:43:07No.
00:43:08No.
00:43:09No.
00:43:10This is his first time winning.
00:43:11It looked like he was really looking for you.
00:43:12He really loves his mom, that's for sure.
00:43:13Yes, he does.
00:43:14Did you guys have a great time today?
00:43:15We definitely did.
00:43:16Yeah, it was a good day for us.
00:43:17Good job, Chorizo.
00:43:18Congratulations, guys.
00:43:19Thank you so much.
00:43:20Thank you very much.
00:43:21And who'd have thought it?
00:43:25It was Chorizo who looked just like the late, great Spicedown.
00:43:31I called it early, guys.
00:43:32I really did.
00:43:33Teresa just came and looked like Spikestown straight as a string all the way down the
00:43:38lane and got the Halloweeny Fest Wiener Dog Race.
00:43:44They go to Teresa, you missed it.
00:43:47But you can catch it again because we'll be back at Santa Anita the day after Christmas.
00:43:51That is the best present you can open October 26, December 26.
00:43:56What am I thinking?
00:43:57We've already missed October 26.
00:44:00It's Boxing Day.
00:44:02Randy, did you make figures on the Wiener Dog Race?
00:44:05I bet.
00:44:06I know Zoe can never tease me again about going down a rabbit hole when she compares
00:44:09a wiener dog to Spikestown.
00:44:10Oh yeah, he was like this.
00:44:13He looked just like Spikestown.
00:44:14We called it before they went in the gate.
00:44:17The fix was in.
00:44:19All right, we move on now to the Saturday Breeders' Cup card.
00:44:22It starts with race four at Del Mar Breeders' Cup, Philly and Mayor's Sprint.
00:44:27To me, on paper, it looked like a two-horse race between society and ways and means.
00:44:32I could have gone either direction.
00:44:33At the end of the day, I decided to go with ways and means.
00:44:36She just looked like she was going to be a phenomenal prospect for Chad Brown.
00:44:41She ran poorly in the Kentucky Oaks.
00:44:44It took them a while to obviously get her back.
00:44:46Later off, she's done nothing wrong since then.
00:44:48Wins an allowance race, wins the test, beats older horses in the Gallant Bloom for Chad
00:44:53Brown and Flavian Pratt.
00:44:55I also think the speed is going to be society, no doubt about that.
00:45:01Is somebody going to keep her honest early?
00:45:03I think it could be ways and means.
00:45:04I don't think she's going to let society get too far away from her.
00:45:09Society has had ... This will be her third run in the Breeders' Cup.
00:45:12She was fourth in this race last year.
00:45:15In 2022, she was seventh in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.
00:45:18She's got a little bit of negative voodoo on her when it comes to the Breeders' Cup.
00:45:23Go ahead, Randy.
00:45:25It's tempting to say that ways and means would be a single because she just looks so dominant
00:45:29in her last three wins, but she beat five horse fields in her last two in the test in
00:45:34the Gallant Bloom.
00:45:35I don't know how much really was behind her in those two races.
00:45:39There's a lot behind her here, not just society, but Vava, who's extremely consistent.
00:45:45Scylla, who I think is much better around one turn than two turns.
00:45:52Even Pleasant, right?
00:45:54I don't think Pleasant is without a shot to run well and hit the board at 12-1 for
00:45:59Bob Baffert.
00:46:00I do not think this is a layup at all for ways and means.
00:46:04She might be the most likely winner percentage-wise, so I'm going to take a shot here, and I'm
00:46:09going to pick Vava.
00:46:10I mean, Vava is remarkably consistent.
00:46:15She almost always runs her race, and that's good enough for me here at a decent price.
00:46:20It's the last time I let you go first.
00:46:22All right.
00:46:24Vava on top, purely off her most recent work.
00:46:27It was absolutely eye-popping at Keeneland.
00:46:30Pull it up and take a look at it.
00:46:31I know she usually works good, but I've never seen her look that good.
00:46:35She comes in with good numbers.
00:46:37She's got the right style for me.
00:46:39While I like society, she's a one-trick pony and she has to go.
00:46:45Let us not forget, this is a tricky distance.
00:46:47It's a specialist distance.
00:46:48If you go too quick, you're screwed.
00:46:53Sometimes she goes too quick and sometimes she gets left alone, so she could win without
00:46:57me.
00:46:58That's the sixth society.
00:46:59I've always loved ways and means, but I mean, Nick Style, Sterling Silver, Emery,
00:47:04my main squeeze, they don't really jump off the page to me.
00:47:08I know you can only beat who you can beat.
00:47:10She was definitely aided by a sloppy track that day, so I'm going Vava with Randy.
00:47:15Watch out for Scylla.
00:47:16Mike Smith was without a mount going into the entry box, the winningest jockey in Breeders'
00:47:22Cup history was without a mount.
00:47:24I believe this may be his lone mount, 10-1 on Scylla.
00:47:28She's going to run a blinder.
00:47:30Race five is the Breeders' Cup turf sprint.
00:47:33One of the biggest favorites of the day is going to be in this race, Cogburn, 7-5 in
00:47:37the morning line for Steve Aspey.
00:47:39He's a very obvious horse to pick.
00:47:41I mean, he's really, really fast and he's in great form right now, but just because
00:47:45I don't want to give out another 6-5 shot or something, I'm going to take a shot with
00:47:49Brad Sell on the outside for Archie Watson and Holly Doyle.
00:47:53If you look at this horse from a class standpoint, he's been running against the very best horses
00:47:59over there in grade one competition.
00:48:01Even last time out when he was beaten in the Predal Bay at Longchamp, he ran a nice race
00:48:07at 7-5.
00:48:09He's the type of horse that ... He also has some early speed, which I like as well.
00:48:13I think he'll be near the pace set by Cogburn and hopefully young Mrs. Doyle can get her
00:48:19home from me, or get him home from me.
00:48:24Okay, I can't argue with your pick.
00:48:26Cogburn is most definitely the horse to beat, but there is a stat going into the Breeders'
00:48:32Cup about runners coming out of Kentucky Downs.
00:48:35I do believe they are 0-32, might be 0-35, having won their last race at Kentucky Downs
00:48:43and going into the Breeders' Cup for the last few years.
00:48:46He has that against him.
00:48:48He's definitely the best horse.
00:48:50He's well-drawn on the outside, numbers-wise.
00:48:53It's going to be extremely hard to beat Cogburn in here for trainer Steve Asmussen.
00:48:59I do like Big Evs, though, as well.
00:49:02He's a horse who really likes to hear his feet rattle.
00:49:04Is he as good as he was last year as a two-year-old?
00:49:08I'm not sure, but I know he has not got the ground that they'll have in Delmar, and he's
00:49:1412-1.
00:49:15I think Cogburn is a single.
00:49:20I know Brad Sill is a really good horse, and the Europeans say he's the best sprinter in
00:49:24Europe and all that.
00:49:26To me, the only way you make money in here, Cogburn's going to be 6-5, is to play exotics.
00:49:31I would definitely use Brad Sill in exotics underneath Cogburn, but one horse I'm going
00:49:35to give you to play in the exotics that I think you should for sure play at 10-1 is
00:49:42the three-year-old filly Star of Mystery, Godolphin and Charlie Appleby.
00:49:46Go back and watch her race in the Franklin at Canelon.
00:49:49No place to run throughout much of the stretch, and then finally, inside the eighth pole,
00:49:55she gets the same and comes flying at the end, storms past the winner on the gallop
00:50:00out.
00:50:01What a great prep race for Star of Mystery.
00:50:04I would include her in exotics as well.
00:50:08Moving on now to the Breeders' Cup Distaff.
00:50:10At one point, this looked like it was going to be one of the most competitive races on
00:50:13the card with Torpedo Anna, Idiomatic, and Adair Manor.
00:50:17Both Adair Manor and Idiomatic have been withdrawn, minor injuries, whatnot.
00:50:23Torpedo Anna now stands alone as the big superstar in the race.
00:50:27I can't find any reason to doubt her.
00:50:31She didn't run a huge number in the cotillion and only won by a neck, but Tarifa, who finished
00:50:36third, came back to win the mother goose.
00:50:38I just think after the Traverse, she was due for a little bit of a backward step into the
00:50:43cotillion.
00:50:44She runs race that she ran in the Traverse where she was beaten ahead by fierceness and
00:50:48got 111 by her.
00:50:49There's no chance anybody can beat her.
00:50:53She's fun.
00:50:54I like her.
00:50:55Look, no doubt she's the best horse in the race.
00:50:57The only real question in the race is this.
00:51:01Really, there are two main questions.
00:51:03Number one, the number one overriding question, was the lackluster win in the cotillion for
00:51:10Torpedo Anna a result of Kenning McPeak under-training her for that race, which to his credit, he
00:51:17said going into the race that she was not going to be totally keyed up for her best
00:51:23effort because it was a prep for the Breeders' Cup?
00:51:25Or was it the result of the tough race that she had in the Traverse?
00:51:31If it's the latter, and we've seen a lot of fillies negatively react to strong, strong
00:51:38efforts against the boys, and they don't always bounce back in their second start after that
00:51:43either.
00:51:44If it was that, then she could be vulnerable, I suppose.
00:51:48The only other horse in here that I think you would even think about would be the Japanese
00:51:53horse Awesome Result, who's a perfect seven for seven.
00:51:56But trying to do some makeshift figs on Awesome Result, I get like maybe mid-90s for Bayer.
00:52:05And I don't think that's typically going to be good enough to beat Torpedo Anna.
00:52:09But that's the only one I think would have a shot.
00:52:12Ditto.
00:52:13I concur exactly.
00:52:15And as far as Torpedo Anna, honestly, I hope she wins.
00:52:19I really do hope she wins.
00:52:21She's had a long, hard season.
00:52:24And it's not just the afternoon races for her.
00:52:27She's so damn hard on herself in the morning, in her gallops.
00:52:33She's good in the stall, I got that.
00:52:35But it's not like she goes out and has a nice canter around the racetrack.
00:52:38She pulls as much as she can every chance she gets.
00:52:42So she is not easy on herself whatsoever.
00:52:46That could well be her undoing at the end of what's been a terrific year for her.
00:52:52So if anyone beats her, I'm with you, Randy.
00:52:55It's going to be the Japanese horse, perhaps.
00:52:59Reader's Cup turf up next.
00:53:01You would imagine the Europeans are going to be strong in this one.
00:53:05If Aiden O'Brien has a good day, I'm going to have a good day.
00:53:07I'm going to go with this horse in here, Luxembourg.
00:53:10It's a little bit inconsistent.
00:53:12But if you look back at his Coronation Cup, perfect setup for this.
00:53:16Mile and a half race, grade one, group one, wins by a length.
00:53:19Now, the thoroughgraft does make figures for these European races.
00:53:22I always wondered how accurate they could possibly be, because I think that's—I love
00:53:27Jerry Brown.
00:53:28I think he's trying a little bit too hard.
00:53:29And he's got it in numbers on the Japanese horses as well.
00:53:33But I certainly trust his US numbers more than that.
00:53:36But then the horse took a backward step.
00:53:39And the Irish champion stakes, six feet and two and a quarter lengths.
00:53:42That's not a bad race.
00:53:44That's a fantastic field.
00:53:46Look who he's running against.
00:53:47Augusto Dan was second in there, horse by the name of Economics was the winner.
00:53:51If he runs back to his best races, he is a little bit inconsistent.
00:53:56But if he can find his best form for Aiden O'Brien and Ryan Moore, I think I might
00:54:00get one home at a price here.
00:54:02I have a question for Randy.
00:54:05Is Rebel's Romance and Emily Upjohn as good as they once were?
00:54:11Like the Toby Keith song, can they be good once and be good enough?
00:54:16Or are they over the hill?
00:54:19I mean, Rebel's Romance has been very well spotted all year.
00:54:23But has he lost a step?
00:54:25And what do you think of Emily Upjohn?
00:54:27I definitely think Emily Upjohn has lost a step.
00:54:32She's also been giving away weight in some of these races that she's lost over there
00:54:36recently.
00:54:37So she's probably a little better than she looks on paper in some of those.
00:54:41But I do think she has lost a step.
00:54:44I'm not so sure Rebel's Romance has lost much of a step.
00:54:49Because if you go back and look at his race in Dubai in March in the Dubai-Shima Classic,
00:54:54I mean, he was awesome.
00:54:55I mean, I was thinking about picking Chariar against him in this spot, and then I go back
00:55:01this morning and Bailey and I watched the Dubai-Shima Classic.
00:55:05And Rebel's Romance got a beautiful trip, sitting second, solo second behind the leader.
00:55:11Chariar was right behind him in a beautiful spot, solo third.
00:55:16Chariar ran up to Rebel's Romance at the quarter pole, and Rebel's Romance just left him for
00:55:20dead.
00:55:21Just, boom, just left him behind.
00:55:23Great turn of foot in that spot.
00:55:25And by the way, Auguste Rodin was about 10 lengths further back.
00:55:30Which leads me to believe that the form of last year's Breeders' Cup turf, with Auguste
00:55:36Rodin at up to the mark, might not be as strong as the year before with Rebel's Romance.
00:55:42So you know, I'm going to take that exacta.
00:55:46I'm going to take Rebel's Romance over Chariar.
00:55:51And throwing in Rauschen Park.
00:55:54Just watching him all week long has looked, I don't know how good he is.
00:55:58He's run four and a halfs on the thoroughgraph.
00:56:01Christophe Lemaire.
00:56:03But he just looks so darn good out there.
00:56:06He's got to fit somewhere.
00:56:07A couple of more real quick notes.
00:56:10I know we're up against the clock here.
00:56:12JRB is also not without a shot.
00:56:14The Europeans love him right now.
00:56:16They think he may even be better than Rebel's Romance.
00:56:19So you know, consider him in your exotics.
00:56:21And to Bill's pick, Luxembourg, how many horses do you see nowadays that win grade one races
00:56:28as two-year-olds, three-year-olds, four-year-olds, and five-year-olds?
00:56:33That's Luxembourg.
00:56:34And lead the string.
00:56:35And lead the string for Aidan O'Brien.
00:56:37He looked like the pony out there this morning, leading the string around there.
00:56:41I mean, if he hadn't been wearing his saddle towel, you might have said that he could have
00:56:45been the pony.
00:56:46I hate to say it because he looked really good.
00:56:48But he's just a cool old dude.
00:56:51All right, a cool old dude.
00:56:55I hope my cool old dude gets the winner's circle ahead of his competition.
00:56:59All right, here's the big one, the Breeders' Cup Classic, $7 million.
00:57:02First of all, I think this is one of the most fascinating races I have ever seen.
00:57:07I'm not saying it's the best I've ever seen, but when you have so many different factors,
00:57:12so many different unknowns, like the Japanese horses, like City of Troy, how is he going
00:57:17to do on the dirt, et cetera.
00:57:19I think it's, and you have, you know, for instance, Randy's, two of Randy's favorite
00:57:23horses are in here, Senior Buscador and Dermis Sotokaki.
00:57:27So it'll be interesting to see what Mr. Moss picks.
00:57:30But I'm going to pick the same horse that Jerry Bailey picked when we had him on a little
00:57:35bit earlier in the show, and that's Artford's Ride.
00:57:38And here's, we're thinking along the same wavelength.
00:57:42His Whitney was really good, as was his allowance race beforehand, 110 Whitney buyer figure,
00:57:48111 in the allowance race.
00:57:50The allowance race was a minus four on the thoroughgraft sheets, his big favorite in
00:57:55the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
00:57:56What happens?
00:57:57He bounced.
00:57:58He bounced off two huge numbers.
00:57:59He only had one month in between races, Bill Mott, who's a great trainer, now has all the
00:58:04time in the world to get him ready for this race.
00:58:07And I also think Jerry's right, that he's going to be the main speed in here.
00:58:10I'd love to pick next my, one of my favorite horses.
00:58:13I think he's going to run well, but I think Arthur's Ride is a nice play at 15 to one.
00:58:20Bill, you've been crying for the last three months that next has to run in the Breeders'
00:58:26Cup Classic.
00:58:27So now you get your shot.
00:58:28He's in here.
00:58:29You're going with the other gray horse?
00:58:30Like, come on, Bill.
00:58:31You've got a point, Zoe.
00:58:32I mean, you've been crying for three months that he needs to run.
00:58:37You've pushed and you've bullied and you've prodded, and now you're not picking him?
00:58:41What can I say?
00:58:43No, you got me.
00:58:45You forced them to run in this race, Bill.
00:58:47Yeah, I know.
00:58:49Some people have said that, by the way.
00:58:51Oh my God, that's terrible.
00:58:54Poor Next is being abandoned by his number one cheerleader.
00:59:01Disgraceful.
00:59:02Who do you like, Zoe?
00:59:05I wrote it down just in case people were thinking I would be copying Randy.
00:59:09So it's right here, boys.
00:59:12Fierceness.
00:59:13So I just wrote it down and you know what?
00:59:17I just wasn't onto fierceness and I watched him all summer long working for XBTV at Saratoga.
00:59:24And I could say he kind of looked like a three-year-old filly, wasn't maybe the prettiest of movers
00:59:31some day, but my God, I have never seen him look as good as he looks right now and move
00:59:39as well as he looks right now.
00:59:42It's like there is a completely different fierceness.
00:59:45Maybe that's a bad thing.
00:59:46I don't know.
00:59:47Because he did pretty well before.
00:59:49He looks really good out there.
00:59:51The numbers stack up.
00:59:52There's speed, but it's always usually the speed of the speed that goes on.
00:59:57I trust in Todd Pletcher, so I'm going fierceness.
01:00:00I've loved the look of Forever Young.
01:00:02He finally woke up when they let him breeze along inside of a horse this morning and he
01:00:07looks really good.
01:00:08His numbers stack up.
01:00:10So Forever Young is right there.
01:00:12People are going to forget about Sierra Leone.
01:00:15Obviously, Chad's been saying he's glad to get him off that track down there.
01:00:19And City of Troy, I'd love to see him win.
01:00:22Maybe he can win without me.
01:00:24I just don't know what to think of City of Troy.
01:00:27It's going to be the most interesting race I think I've ever watched, to be perfectly
01:00:33honest.
01:00:34I'm so looking forward to it.
01:00:36I know what to think about City of Troy.
01:00:38Throw him out.
01:00:39I know.
01:00:40Listen to me.
01:00:41If he was five to one or six to one, I'd say, okay, maybe there's enough price built
01:00:48into the risk you're taking, dirt versus turf, that it might be worth it.
01:00:52Do you really think he's going to be the favorite?
01:00:55No.
01:00:56No?
01:00:57Me neither.
01:00:58No.
01:00:59I think Randy the Hoof.
01:01:01Fierceness will be the favorite?
01:01:02I think so.
01:01:03But I still think City of Troy will be a shorter price than he deserves to be.
01:01:07Forever Young will take a lot of money.
01:01:10My exacta is Fierceness and Forever Young.
01:01:13Look, here I am teasing Bill about abandoning his favorite horse next.
01:01:19But Dermas Sotogake, thank you, by the way, to Sally Ellen at Country Life Farm for sending
01:01:26me some Dermas Sotogake swag.
01:01:28But he's off form right now.
01:01:31I think the same thing could be said for Señor Buscador.
01:01:35I didn't like his last race at all.
01:01:37I think he's a little off form right now.
01:01:40But I agree with Zoe.
01:01:41What a fantastic race this is.
01:01:47A lot of people have been harping over how good Newgate looks.
01:01:50I've not seen him down in the flesh.
01:01:52He worked very well.
01:01:53Blinkers on for Baffert.
01:01:55I'm just throwing that in there.
01:01:56Could you imagine Frankie DeTore taking down the Breeders' Cup Classic?
01:02:00He's drawn on the outside.
01:02:02Randy, you're like the expert in this.
01:02:05They're going a mile and a quarter.
01:02:06Does the post position really matter at all, going a mile and a quarter?
01:02:11I mean, if you've got some kind of speed.
01:02:15You've got a quarter of a mile to figure it out.
01:02:18If you can't get that done, maybe you should rescind your license.
01:02:22More or less, I agree with you, Zoe.
01:02:25In a 14-horse field, if you draw the outside, I think it may be a small disadvantage.
01:02:30But it all depends on the way the race shapes out.
01:02:33If there's enough early speed in there to stretch out the field a little bit by the first turn,
01:02:37there's plenty of room for riders to slot in and drop over and all that.
01:02:40So I don't pay too much attention to post position in the Breeders' Cup.
01:02:44As a matter of fact, what I was concerned about the most about fierceness was an inside draw.
01:02:4914, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9.
01:02:52Beautiful for fierceness, I think, to be able to track the speed from the outside.
01:02:56Because I think that's the way he wants to run.
01:02:58And I don't disagree with Bill and Jerry about Arthur's ride.
01:03:02I think he's got a great shot if they leave him alone on the front end.
01:03:05He's run fast enough to win before. What a race. Fantastic.
01:03:09So disappointed in Bill. So disappointed.
01:03:15You pick the white unicorn over your favorite horse next.
01:03:20Oh boy.
01:03:23How much fun are you going to have when Next wins and I have to be the guy with egg all over my face next week?
01:03:29Yeah, I know.
01:03:32If you're looking to bet the Breeders' Cup, XBTV is your place to go.
01:03:37And the TDN Writers' Room is brought to you by XBTV.
01:03:40This week's Work of the Week is a two-for-one-er.
01:03:43It's a joint work between Hang the Moon in the black cap here and Gold Phoenix.
01:03:48Now the pair work five furlongs in company in a minute and two-fifths with trainer Phil D'Amato.
01:03:54Hang the Moon is the contender for the Breeders' Cup filly and mare turf
01:03:57after winning the John C. Mabee and Rodeo Drive stakes.
01:04:02Gold Phoenix is pointing towards the Breeders' Cup turf after winning the Dalmar handicap for the third year in a row.
01:04:08And you might need Gold Phoenix on your ticket.
01:04:11He has never looked so good.
01:04:13As far as Hang the Moon is concerned, apparently she's never that great a workhorse.
01:04:18So we'll have to wait and see.
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01:05:21Another one of our weekly sponsors here at the TD and Riders Room is West Point Thoroughbreds.
01:05:27And the West Point partners are going to have a great time this weekend here at Del Mar.
01:05:31A, it's paradise. You can't tell it from where I am right now in a corner of a trailer.
01:05:36But it's just gorgeous out there.
01:05:38And they'll have even more fun because they've got a horse like Vava in the Breeders' Cup Philly Mare Sprint.
01:05:43Who Zoe and I both picked to win.
01:05:45West Point campaigns Vava with a group of co-owners.
01:05:48Vava trained by Cherie DeVoe who's having a fantastic season.
01:05:52And Cherie's great season continued with a 1-2 sweep in the Bryan Station stakes Saturday at Keeneland.
01:05:59She trained the winter brilliant Birdie.
01:06:02And also West Point's runner-up in the Bryan Station.
01:06:05Depiction at 44-1 who missed by just a hit.
01:06:10West Point also hit the board this past weekend.
01:06:12And picked up Kentucky Derby qualifying points with Sandman.
01:06:15Who was third at Churchill Lounge and the Street Sense.
01:06:18Stakes, of course, for two-year-olds.
01:06:20To visit more, www.westpointtb.com
01:06:31Alright, even though the Classic will have been run.
01:06:34There's still plenty of action left on the Breeders' Cup card.
01:06:38I hope people are going to stick around after the Classic.
01:06:40Because there are four very good races.
01:06:42And we've got to take a good look at them.
01:06:44Ninth race is the Philly and Mare Turf.
01:06:47I like kind of both Canadian horses.
01:06:49Trained by Kevin Attard, Full Count Felicia and Maura.
01:06:52The running of the E.P. Taylor was as strange a race as you will see.
01:06:57The jockeys, talk about falling asleep.
01:07:00Full Count Felicia got 14 lengths in front down the backside in 48.5.
01:07:06Usually when those horses get 14 in front, they go 45.2.
01:07:10And you know they're going to be eased by the time they get to the wire.
01:07:14She went all the way and won it.
01:07:16But I think I'm going to actually take the stable mate, Maura.
01:07:19Who ran second behind her.
01:07:21First of all, Full Count Felicia is never in a million years going to get 14 lengths in front of this field.
01:07:25And Maura made a nice run to finish second behind her last time out.
01:07:29Her Beverly Dee was very good.
01:07:31And especially her Diana.
01:07:33Which I thought was the best Philly and Mare field assembled so far this year.
01:07:36She ran, well, third in the Breeders' Cup last year.
01:07:39So she's got the ability just like most of these races.
01:07:44There's going to be a lot of racing luck on a turf race with a big field.
01:07:47So hopefully Flavien Pratt can work out a good trip on Maura.
01:07:50And I'll have a winner.
01:07:54You've obviously been looking at the sheets, Bill.
01:07:56Well done.
01:07:58You're on the right two for Kevin Attard.
01:08:00Those two ran big numbers.
01:08:02Moira is a very, very, very good Philly indeed.
01:08:06And I don't believe that there's really much that's going to run over the top of them.
01:08:12Cinderella's Dream is good for Appleby.
01:08:15Coming in off some good wins at Saratoga.
01:08:19Warlike Goddess has run some monster numbers in the past.
01:08:23And she might just be coming into her best yet at seven years old.
01:08:27And that could really be a storybook story for the ages.
01:08:30I'm going to go Warlike Goddess.
01:08:32And maybe the three turns in here is going to act in her favor.
01:08:38She comes from off the pace.
01:08:41She always seems to just come a little bit later.
01:08:43I have a feeling by the time they get around the second turn, she'll be making a move.
01:08:47And she could be much closer.
01:08:49So it's Warlike Goddess for me.
01:08:53I was tossed up between Warlike Goddess and Moira.
01:08:56And I'll land on Bill's pick in Moira.
01:09:02I don't really think the Europeans are as strong in this race as they often are.
01:09:06Content from the Aiden O'Brien camp has been really...
01:09:11She looks like an incredibly difficult horse to ride.
01:09:13She pulls really hard.
01:09:15Gets rank in a lot of her races.
01:09:17And suddenly Ryan Moore is not riding Content.
01:09:20He's riding Yalang Yalang at ten to one.
01:09:23Who looks like she's probably a third or fourth stringer for Cool Moore.
01:09:28I don't know if they thought that maybe Ryan wasn't handling...
01:09:32They weren't getting along with Content very well or whatever.
01:09:35Normally I would lean toward the Europeans.
01:09:37But here I'll take Moira, who was a great third last year behind in Spiral and Warm Heart in this race.
01:09:44With Warlike Goddess right behind her.
01:09:48Race ten, Breeders' Cup Sprint.
01:09:50And as I looked at this race, first of all, there's going to be a speed meltdown in here.
01:09:54There's so many horses with early speed.
01:09:56But I'm going to change my... I'm going to go in a different direction.
01:09:59I think Federal Judge might be the speed of the speed.
01:10:04He's really, really quick right now.
01:10:06The son of Army Mule.
01:10:07Zero on the thoroughgraft sheets when he won the Phoenix.
01:10:10And I hope people read my story in Monday's Thoroughbred Daily News.
01:10:15Brad Cox is winning like 70% with stakes horses over the last month.
01:10:20I didn't make that up.
01:10:22He cannot do anything wrong right now.
01:10:25This horse is lightly raced.
01:10:26Has not really proven himself at this level.
01:10:29But if he doesn't get into any kind of hellacious speed duel
01:10:33with a couple other horses in here that have speed,
01:10:35like Skelly Mulligan and Raging Torrent,
01:10:38I think he can go wire to wire.
01:10:40I'll know a lot better a quarter mile into the race.
01:10:49I don't like Federal Judge.
01:10:51Because I think that the track at Keeneland,
01:10:54the day he won the Phoenix, was incredibly biased towards speed and rail.
01:10:58And that played into his style perfectly.
01:11:02Beyond that, you've got Raging Torrent, who's got to go from the rail,
01:11:05who's really fast.
01:11:06And then you've got Federal Judge, who's really fast.
01:11:09And then you've got Straight No Chaser, who's really fast.
01:11:13And then you've got him going through my past performances.
01:11:16I'm sure there's Skelly, who might be faster than any of them,
01:11:19breaking from the outside.
01:11:20So I agree with Bill that a pace meltdown is likely here.
01:11:23So two horses I'm going to key on.
01:11:25Nakatomi, first of all, who ran really well in the Breeders' Cup last year,
01:11:29finished third behind Elite Power and Gunite.
01:11:31He's got the right running style.
01:11:33And Wesley Ward is good at getting him to peak at just the right time.
01:11:37And then Mulliken, along with the Japanese horse, Remake.
01:11:41That's my trifecta right there.
01:11:42Mulliken, I loved his win in the Forgo.
01:11:45My entire life, seemingly, I've been preaching against
01:11:50taking seven-furlong New York horses in the Sprint
01:11:53when it's in Southern California.
01:11:55But I do think Mulliken fits very well in here.
01:11:59And I love a lot of Remakes races as well.
01:12:02Maybe you can clarify a little more, Zoe.
01:12:05Mulliken, for me, he ran a huge number in Saratoga,
01:12:10but he's had ample time to recover.
01:12:12That was on the 24th of August.
01:12:14And then you compare him to Federal Judge,
01:12:17who Pratt just rode on the 4th of October.
01:12:19He ran a negative three. Mulliken ran a negative two.
01:12:22That's a huge number for him to bounce back from.
01:12:25I agree he's a good horse, but I'm going where Pratt goes.
01:12:28I'm trusting in Pratt here, so I'm going Mulliken.
01:12:31I'm looking forward to seeing the giant horse,
01:12:34Don Frankie run, weighing in at, I think, 1380 pounds
01:12:39or something.
01:12:40He's an absolute beast out of a really small filly
01:12:44called Wee Miss Frankie that used to be trained
01:12:46by Peter Upton out here in Southern California.
01:12:49Quite amazing, really. Quite amazing.
01:12:53Two races to go. Race 11 is the Breeders' Cup mile.
01:12:58I kind of like a horse in here.
01:13:00It's been one of my better plays of the day.
01:13:03I'll mess up the pronunciation because it's in French
01:13:06and I'm hopelessly lost when it comes to that.
01:13:09But number one, Ramatuel. Ramatuel?
01:13:11Something like that. Whatever it is.
01:13:13Ramatuel.
01:13:14Ramatuel.
01:13:15So if you look at this horse, the last race is a win
01:13:19with a Prix de la Forêt, which is one of the big,
01:13:22great run races at Longshop for these kind of horses.
01:13:26It was seven furlongs, but it falls into the same category.
01:13:29She's a three-year-old filly and she's already beat
01:13:33older males in the Prix de la Forêt.
01:13:35Here, she gets six pounds from most of the horses,
01:13:38ones that are carrying 126, except for the other horses.
01:13:42There's a couple other fillies and some three-year-olds
01:13:44in here.
01:13:45But that six pounds, I think, when you compare that
01:13:48to some of the horses she's got to face,
01:13:51I think that's going to make a big difference.
01:13:53And I really like this horse.
01:13:54I think she's really going to be tough.
01:13:57Karl Spackler, nothing wrong with him.
01:13:59I'm not sure the 12 post is absolutely the best place to be.
01:14:02He also is very consistent, very fast.
01:14:05But again, I get six pounds from Karl Spackler.
01:14:07I'll take it.
01:14:09Well, you're getting three from Notable Speech,
01:14:11who I think is the best horse in the race,
01:14:13because he carries 123.
01:14:15Toss out the soft effort in the Prix de Moulin.
01:14:18It was bottomless that day.
01:14:20Ran a really good fifth to be beaten,
01:14:23six and a quarter length.
01:14:24Sharon came back to win just last week.
01:14:26I mean, it's not often that you see Godolphen
01:14:29send their A number one horses.
01:14:31He's a grade one 2000 Guineas winner.
01:14:33He took down the Sussex Stakes in July.
01:14:35It's Notable Speech for me all day long.
01:14:39Karl Spackler is going to have something to say.
01:14:42He's got speed.
01:14:43And his last few works have been extremely good.
01:14:46Geolith for the Japanese connections.
01:14:49He's looked excellent training out there
01:14:52and comes in with some good numbers as well.
01:14:54So it's really, really a very good race.
01:14:58Porta Fortuna.
01:14:59I mean, she's right there too.
01:15:01Yeah.
01:15:02I mean, to me, four horses stand out.
01:15:05Superfecta, I guess.
01:15:07Notable Speech, Porta Fortuna,
01:15:09who beat Rama 2L in her previous two races
01:15:12before the Prix de Forêt.
01:15:13And then Rama 2L.
01:15:15And then More Than Looks,
01:15:16who I thought probably could have slash should have
01:15:21beaten Karl Spackler in the turf mile
01:15:24at Keeneland last time out.
01:15:26And is trained by Cherie Deveaux.
01:15:29Set up to run a big race.
01:15:31But I agree.
01:15:32Notable Speech and Porta Fortuna,
01:15:33the two Europeans, I think, look better on paper.
01:15:37We end the card with the big ass fans Breeders' Cup dirt mile,
01:15:41which is the last of the Breeders' Cup races.
01:15:43Race 12 on the card.
01:15:45Interesting race in here.
01:15:46You can go in a lot of different directions.
01:15:48I know when we talked to Chad Brown a couple weeks ago,
01:15:51he told us how high he was on domestic product.
01:15:54You should definitely keep that in mind.
01:15:56I'm going to go for another kind of oddball horse in here.
01:15:59Number 12, Mufasa, trained by Ignacio Correas,
01:16:02who's one of the more underrated trainers in the game.
01:16:04Doesn't have a whole lot of horses,
01:16:06but he gets these horses out of South America
01:16:08and does a very good job with them.
01:16:10The horse in his first start over here in June
01:16:13at Churchill Downs didn't show much,
01:16:16but since then looks very good winning at Colonial,
01:16:19looks very good winning the Vosburg.
01:16:21I know that race usually comes up very light.
01:16:23Gets a zero on the thorograph sheets in the Vosburg,
01:16:26so he's already fast and heading in the right direction.
01:16:30Then I saw that the horse was 4 for 4 at a mile.
01:16:34Those were all obviously in Chile,
01:16:36but the mile distance certainly is going to be to his liking
01:16:40after running seven furlongs and six and a half earlier.
01:16:44I think this horse has a good shot.
01:16:46Tyler Gaffley on the board.
01:16:48Look, Saudi Crown has got to go for post one,
01:16:51and he's so fast that in Saudi Arabia,
01:16:54he beat National Treasure to the early lead
01:16:57when they ran against each other.
01:16:59T.O. St. Denis can fly early.
01:17:01Full Serrano, exceptionally fast early.
01:17:04Tamburumba, always close to the pace.
01:17:06I don't know if he's quite as fast as the other ones,
01:17:09but he's got a lot of speed.
01:17:11We know Muth has got speed and likes to be up close.
01:17:14Pasa has been up close sprinting,
01:17:1644 and change, two races back.
01:17:18Pipeline is on the lead in almost all of his races.
01:17:20Skippy Longstocking likes to be.
01:17:22This is going to be a pace meltdown.
01:17:24To me, I think it's easy.
01:17:26I think Domestic Product sits back,
01:17:28and I think the race falls in his lap,
01:17:30and I think he's the best horse anyway.
01:17:32So it's a single for me, Domestic Product.
01:17:34I concur.
01:17:36I forgot.
01:17:38I should have written it down
01:17:40so that people don't think I'm copying.
01:17:42If you can get 7-2 on him right now,
01:17:44go ahead and get it.
01:17:46I'll take it.
01:17:48Randy, will you give me 7-2 on Domestic Product?
01:17:50I already owe you a bottle of wine.
01:17:52I will not give you 7-2 on Domestic Product.
01:17:54Definitely him.
01:17:56I don't like Saudi Crown.
01:17:58I didn't love his last work coming in here.
01:18:00He gets surreal.
01:18:02He's got one way to go.
01:18:04Post times look really good.
01:18:06Hasn't beat anything up there at Laurel,
01:18:08but has worked very well and comes in
01:18:11so he could be knocking on the door.
01:18:13In this week's Breeders' Cup Connections,
01:18:15our own Katie Petruniak
01:18:17talks to Brad Cox's assistant,
01:18:19Katie Talbot,
01:18:21the regular rider of Highland Falls
01:18:23who heads to the Breeders' Cup
01:18:25on Saturday.
01:18:27It's fun just to be in the barn
01:18:29and just to see them grow and learn
01:18:31and be successful.
01:18:33It's the only reason I do it.
01:18:35There are plenty of jobs where you can make more money
01:18:37or have a better schedule or whatever,
01:18:39but it's the only thing I want to do.
01:18:45That is a wrap on this week's show,
01:18:47our Breeders' Cup Handicapping Edition.
01:18:49Thank you to Jerry Bailey for joining us
01:18:51as our guest of the week.
01:18:53Thanks to my partners, Zoe Cabin and Randy Moss.
01:18:55And especially thanks to our staff
01:18:57who works behind the scenes
01:18:59and does such a great job.
01:19:01Our producers and editors, Katie Petruniak,
01:19:03Anthony LaRocca and Ali LaRocca.
01:19:05Have a great Breeders' Cup weekend, everybody.
01:19:07See you next week.