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00:00:00For the love of the horse, for generations to come.
00:00:28And welcome to another edition of the Thoroughbred Daily News TDN Writer's Room Podcast.
00:00:32My name is Bill Finley and I'm correspondent for the Thoroughbred Daily News and also co-host
00:00:38of the Down the Stretch Show on SiriusXM with Dave Johnson.
00:00:40Hello guys, I'm Randy Moss, NBC Sports and also part of the Buyer's Speed Figure team.
00:00:47TD Thornton, checking in here from a little north of Boston and I'm also on the writing
00:00:51team at TDN.
00:00:53And I want to remind you that this week and every week the TDN Writer's Room Podcast is
00:00:56brought to you by our good friends at Keeneland.
00:00:58We'll be hearing more about what's going on at Keeneland in just a little bit.
00:01:02Well guys, the biggest race of the week last week I think was the Ohio Derby because of
00:01:07the prominence of the three-year-old.
00:01:10And a good story and a not so good story.
00:01:13To the surprise of no one, two Phil's who I think, particularly Randy, you were very
00:01:17high on him coming out of the Kentucky Derby, passed on the Preakness in Belmont, wins the
00:01:22Ohio Derby, wins it comfortably for an Ohio Derby, a pretty good field.
00:01:28Bishop's Bay was second haystrike, Lord Miles was in there.
00:01:32But then it turns out, we find out the next day that he has been injured.
00:01:37We are filming this, taping this on a Tuesday.
00:01:41So between the time we are talking about it now and when you're watching it, maybe more
00:01:46news will have come out on two Phil's injury.
00:01:49But Randy, it doesn't look like he's going to run again.
00:01:53Larry Revelli, the trainer, is saying that it would be unlikely to get him back this
00:01:57year and then why not just retire him to stud, which would be quite a shame.
00:02:01Because I think at this point in time, you could look at him and say maybe he is, if
00:02:06not for the injury, the best three-year-old in training.
00:02:10I think right now if you had to rank all the three-year-olds in the country, I think two
00:02:15Phil's would be clearly number one in the aftermath of the Ohio Derby.
00:02:20And as you pointed out, I mean, I'll be shocked if he ever runs again.
00:02:25Given the value of a good stallion versus racing, etc., etc., Larry Revelli has already
00:02:33pointed out that an injury of this nature, horses often don't come back the same as they
00:02:39were before.
00:02:40All those points, I think, add up to the fact that he'll, in my opinion, almost certainly
00:02:46be retired and that's a shame.
00:02:49And now we're almost two months out since the Kentucky Derby.
00:02:52Ten horses have run back out of the race.
00:02:54Only two have won.
00:02:55Two Phil's and Disarm came back to win their subsequent starts.
00:03:00It was kind of fun for me looking back through the charts just to see when was the last time
00:03:04a relevant three-year-old that took home a lot of hardware won the Ohio Derby.
00:03:09You have to go all the way back to Skipaway in 1996, and it was interesting to see just
00:03:14the different eras.
00:03:16Skipaway ran in all three Triple Crown races.
00:03:20He was 12th in the Derby, second in both the Preakness and the Belmont, and then trainer
00:03:25Sonny Hine wheeled him back in 15 days to run in the Ohio Derby.
00:03:29I don't think we're going to be seeing any more types of, we certainly won't be seeing
00:03:32any more Skipaways, but that template, I think, is also out the window.
00:03:36Boy, those were the days, I tell you.
00:03:39I agree with you, Randy.
00:03:40I don't think he's going to run again, but there is somewhat of an incentive to do so
00:03:44because he's not a grade one winner, and that if he were to win a grade one, that would
00:03:48make his stud value even higher.
00:03:50Then also, we have the story coming in.
00:03:52Jareth Loveberry, the jockey who came from the Michigan circuit into stardom on the Chicago
00:03:58circuit at Arlington and became the regular runner.
00:04:00Two Phil's was injured before the race, and Gerardo Corrales had to take over.
00:04:04Going across the pond to England, we had Royal Ascot last week.
00:04:09Far as news relating to American Horses, Princeton Advocates winning the Queen Mary was quite
00:04:19the story.
00:04:21She comes out of those win-in-your-in races that they created at Gulfstream Park and won
00:04:26the Royal Palm Juvenile Philly Stakes there for trainer George Weaver, reels back at Royal
00:04:33Ascot.
00:04:34John Velasquez rides a tremendous finish, wins by the tiniest of noses, got the bob,
00:04:40a lot of smiles across the backstretches of American racing because George Weaver, the
00:04:45trainer, is a good guy.
00:04:46Also, people were delighted that his wife, Cindy Hutter, who was very seriously injured
00:04:53in a training accident on July 3rd of last year at Saratoga, serious brain injury, was
00:04:58able to make the trip over.
00:05:00I've also heard George Weaver was one of the most underrated trainers in the sport,
00:05:03and it was the big story for American Connections at Royal Ascot.
00:05:07Yes, and the other thing is very interesting to see how I think America's top big money
00:05:13rider on the front end, John Velasquez, says he almost misjudged the timing there.
00:05:18They're coming down a straightaway.
00:05:20There are two hills that he has to negotiate.
00:05:22He said he wished he would have saved a little bit more for the second hill.
00:05:26How about George Weaver?
00:05:27It's not like he just decided on a whim, hey, I ran third in a maiden special way to
00:05:33Keeneland.
00:05:34I won one of the qualifying races at Gulfstream.
00:05:36Let's go over the pond to Ascot.
00:05:38This is a months-in-the-making plan, and I know George was quoted as saying the last,
00:05:44and I believe the only other time he went to Ascot was eight years ago.
00:05:47He didn't want to go back until he had the right horse.
00:05:49Well, he had the right horse last week.
00:05:51Those auto qualifier races at Gulfstream Park, the Royal Palm Juvenile, the Royal Palm
00:05:58Juvenile fillies on May the 13th, the first of their kind ever in the United States, where
00:06:03a winner of those races is an automatic qualifier to any of the six two-year-old Royal Ascot
00:06:10races that they choose.
00:06:12And George Weaver swept the two races at Gulfstream Park.
00:06:16He started off winning the Colts division with No Name Mets, who's owned by Alex Bregman,
00:06:21the Astros third baseman.
00:06:23Then an hour and a half later, Crimson Advocate wins the filly race.
00:06:26So what's interesting in how John Velazquez picked up the mount and the Royal Palm Juvenile
00:06:32fillies, okay, Velazquez was on a first-time starter, Stone Street Stable, Wesley Ward,
00:06:39named Ocean Mermaid, that was four to five in that race.
00:06:43When the gates opened, Crimson Advocate, it's like, I mean, almost like she beat the gate.
00:06:49She's a length and a half, two lengths in front, right off the bat, which in a turf
00:06:53sprint is pretty difficult to do.
00:06:56Ocean Mermaid ran really well to finish second, almost six lengths ahead of the rest of the
00:07:01field, but Crimson Advocate beat Ocean Mermaid wire to wire by three and a quarter.
00:07:06Velazquez on Ocean Mermaid, got off, approached George Weaver.
00:07:12I think he called him and said, hey, I want to ride your horse at Royal Ascot.
00:07:17He knew how good Ocean Mermaid was, and if Crimson Advocate beat her that convincingly,
00:07:23that's the horse that JV wanted to ride at Royal Ascot.
00:07:26And of course, that paid out.
00:07:28And what I think is really interesting, I didn't really realize this until reading the
00:07:31stories, only three American trainers have ever won a race at Royal Ascot.
00:07:38Wesley Ward, who didn't have a very good meet this year, has won a dozen.
00:07:43Mark Cassie won with Teppan, if you remember.
00:07:45I think it was the Queen Anne a few years ago.
00:07:49And now George Weaver, becoming only the third American to win over Royal Ascot.
00:07:54Randy, the disappointment among American horses was Wesley Ward's American Rascal,
00:07:58that beautifully bred horse by Carlin out of Lady Aurelia herself, a winner at Royal
00:08:03Ascot, was 13th in the Norfolk Stakes.
00:08:06Your thoughts on American Rascal and any other things that caught your attention at
00:08:10Royal Ascot?
00:08:11I think we discussed American Rascal being a sort of Kirtland.
00:08:16I think the Kirtland came out more than the Lady Aurelia came out in that race.
00:08:20And I doubt we'll be seeing American Rascal on grass again.
00:08:24That's a distinct possibility.
00:08:26The four horses that Wesley ran, Fandom was the best finisher.
00:08:31He finished 11th.
00:08:33Four win-in-your-in Breeders' Cup races.
00:08:36The Queen Anne was won by Triple Time.
00:08:39Trainer Kevin Ryan has been a regular at the Breeders' Cup.
00:08:43He won the turf sprint with Glass Slippers.
00:08:46He was second last year with Emirati Anna.
00:08:48He's had horses in the Breeders' Cup the last three years.
00:08:51So maybe Triple Time will come.
00:08:53Brad Sell won the King's Stand.
00:08:55Archie Watson, that trainer, has had three Breeders' Cup starters.
00:09:00The Prince of Wales is won by, in very strong fashion, by Mostadoth.
00:09:05His Adiar finished third.
00:09:07Mostadoth owned by Shadwell, trained by John Gosden.
00:09:09Gosden quoted after the race as saying that the horse is brilliant on firm turf.
00:09:15So maybe Santa Anita might be in play.
00:09:18And Invalid Force, the 150-1 winner of the Norfolk,
00:09:21that's the race that American Rascal ran so poorly in.
00:09:25He's already, the trainer, Adrian Murray, first group win ever,
00:09:28has already been quoted as saying that the Juvenile,
00:09:32the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint is the goal, is the end-of-the-year goal.
00:09:37So we may see some participation there in Royal Ascot,
00:09:41heading down the road to Santa Anita at the Breeders' Cup.
00:09:45I want to remind you the TDN Writers' Room is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:09:48Last week at Royal Ascot, Keeneland's September grads were on center stage.
00:09:52Thursday, Valiant Force won the Group 2 Norfolk stakes,
00:09:55most important stakes race of the Royal meeting for two-year-olds.
00:09:58He's a Keeneland November Wienling grad and a $100,000 Keeneland September Yearling grad.
00:10:03And Friday, King of Steel won the Group 2 King Edward VII stakes.
00:10:07He is a $200,000 2021 Keeneland September grad.
00:10:12Keeneland is the home of the World's Yearling Sale.
00:10:14The energy, magic, and momentum of the September Yearling Sale
00:10:16returns September 11th through the 23rd.
00:10:19Learn more at the World's Yearling Sale.
00:10:21Once again, that's theworldyearlingsale.com.
00:10:28If this place could talk,
00:10:32it would roar.
00:10:35It would say, this is racing.
00:10:38This beating heart in the heart of horse country.
00:10:43Steady and strong beneath the roar.
00:10:46Reminding us why.
00:10:49For the love of the horse.
00:10:51For generations to come.
00:10:53The best two-year-old by legendary sire Quality Road.
00:10:58In the back, a million five.
00:11:01Very, very impressive debut.
00:11:03Cantering home could not have been more impressive.
00:11:06Coast to coast to the American Pharaoh.
00:11:08He's the real deal.
00:11:10Undefeated and unchallenged at two.
00:11:13He's just too good.
00:11:15He wins the Breeders' Cup Jubilee.
00:11:17Cornish.
00:11:18Cornish, the newest champion to Coolmore America.
00:11:26The TDN Writer's Room was brought to you by Coolmore.
00:11:28Sequoy became the newest grade one winner for Practical Joke on Saturday
00:11:32when he won the group one Classico Tantio di Portorillos.
00:11:36Julie, I apologize for probably botching the pronunciation of everything
00:11:41that I just said to you.
00:11:43But anyways, also was a third straight victory
00:11:45and first stakes win for Classic Empire's ascendancy
00:11:47on Saturday when the Philly won the She's a Tiger stakes
00:11:50by three and a quarter lengths at Pleasanton.
00:11:53And the Coolmore sire, Wooten Bassett, had not won but two
00:11:56group two Royal Ascot winners this week when River Tiber won the Coventry stakes
00:12:00and King of Steel came home first in the group two King Edward VII stakes.
00:12:06So let's get back to some of the news that was made during the week.
00:12:08And T.D. Thorne, you reported on a story of the New York Gaming Commission
00:12:13putting in new rules that require a trainer to have their private veterinarian
00:12:20examine a horse 72 hours before a race and 72 hours before a workout.
00:12:27And if you look at the comments section on your story on the Thoroughbred Daily News,
00:12:34really universal, just panning this rule.
00:12:37This is from somebody by the name of Vito Cucci.
00:12:40Love it.
00:12:40Gonna save me some lots of money.
00:12:42How, you ask?
00:12:43Well, because as a horse owner and breeder for almost 40 years,
00:12:46I'll never invest another dime in the horse business.
00:12:50Now, I do understand there's some issues here.
00:12:53Extra expense, extra paperwork.
00:12:56You might even say there's some issues with the vets.
00:12:59You know, are they really going to look at their trainer and say, you know,
00:13:03this horse shouldn't be allowed to run and kind of forcing the trainer to scratch it.
00:13:08But the negativity to this, I don't get.
00:13:12And, you know, maybe I'm missing something here.
00:13:14Granted, you know, this is somewhat of a hassle for trainers,
00:13:18but aren't we supposed to be doing everything possible to keep these horses safe?
00:13:24And if you ask me, you can't have too many eyes look at these horses
00:13:29and make sure before they go out for workouts and for races that they are in proper shape
00:13:36and that you're not taking unnecessary chances.
00:13:39I mean, that very thing is the main thing that turned the numbers around in California.
00:13:43So, you know, maybe there's something, you know, because I'm not a trainer,
00:13:47maybe there's some issues that I don't quite understand.
00:13:49I'm willing to realize that.
00:13:53But boy, on the surface, I think it's a good rule.
00:13:56And remember, this is just a proposed rule.
00:13:58So everybody who commented will have a chance.
00:14:01The rule is out for a public commentary period.
00:14:05And it has to come back before the commission,
00:14:07before they make a final vote, before it gets adopted.
00:14:10But yeah, there were some concerns about the cost burden.
00:14:13I don't know off the top of my head how much of an attending veterinarian would
00:14:18charge a trainer just to look at a horse and clear it for a workout.
00:14:22There's also the burden of responsibility or perhaps even liability for the veterinarians
00:14:29who pays them, the owners and trainers.
00:14:31But yet, at some point, if something happens and there is an injury,
00:14:35their license might be up for grabs, you know, or up for censure at the commission level.
00:14:41So the vets are in a little bit of a dicey position there.
00:14:44And I think one thing that struck me in my reporting of this when I covered the
00:14:48Gaming Commission meeting on Monday, the New York Commission contrasted with,
00:14:53for example, the California Horse Racing Board, which often debates these items ad nauseam
00:14:58and takes hours of public commentary on a single issue.
00:15:02New York, they do things a little differently.
00:15:04The staff researches it.
00:15:06They make a recommendation and it essentially gets rubber stamped.
00:15:09I was astounded in covering the meeting on Monday that there was zero public discussion
00:15:15among the commissioners before they took the vote.
00:15:17It was just quick.
00:15:18The motion was made.
00:15:19The vote was taken.
00:15:20And now it goes out for the public commentary period.
00:15:22So we'll see if that actually gets adopted and if horsemen weigh in on it and what comes to that.
00:15:28Of course, there was a recent spate of breakdowns at Belmont Park, horse deaths.
00:15:33To me, this smacks is a little bit more of a public relations move than something that
00:15:40they think is going to have, you know, real solid, tangible benefits.
00:15:45But there's an old saying, don't let perfect get in the way of good.
00:15:51By that, in this particular situation, when you're talking about private veterinarians
00:15:56examining the horses, I agree with you, Bill.
00:15:58I mean, there is a disincentive there for a private veterinarian who is ostensibly making
00:16:07a lot of money from a large stable, a trainer of a large stable to tell that trainer, no,
00:16:14you know, I'm not going to approve this horse running in the race, even though you want it to.
00:16:19Or I'm not going to approve you breezing this horse this morning,
00:16:23even though you think that the horse is OK.
00:16:27But I also agree that, you know, if it does create a little more pressure
00:16:35on the private veterinarians to be even a little more careful than they already are,
00:16:41and trainers as well, before they send a horse out to work, then it's not necessarily a bad thing.
00:16:46Cost, we'll see how that all shakes out.
00:16:49That's a legitimate concern.
00:16:51But I agree that as many eyes as possible should be on these horses before workouts
00:16:56and before races.
00:16:58And even though it's not a perfect scenario, it doesn't make it a bad one.
00:17:03Other news during the week.
00:17:04Editor Prado, Hall of Famer Edgar Prado announced his retirement.
00:17:077,119 victories, eighth winningest rider in history.
00:17:13But, you know, none of these riders can beat Father Time.
00:17:16And he was 56 years old.
00:17:18And he really, you know, it's kind of a shame because the way he's going the last couple of
00:17:22years, we kind of a little bit forgot about what he was like in his prime.
00:17:26But in 2021 and 2022, he only won 26 combined races, winning at 8.5 percent.
00:17:33And, you know, at some point, he obviously just decided that
00:17:38he was not going to kick around riding, you know, seven, eight winners a year.
00:17:42Jeannie, one thing that is interesting, you're a New England guy.
00:17:45He rode very briefly in Florida.
00:17:48But really, the first U.S. track after he came over from Peru,
00:17:52where he made a name for himself, was at Suffolk Downs in 1988.
00:17:57Won a bunch of races there before moving on to Maryland.
00:18:00Very competitive jockey colony at the time.
00:18:03And when you think of Edgar Prado in his fully formed later years,
00:18:08when he really had that pro edge, you think of a cool head,
00:18:12savvy touch with the reins, yet very strong.
00:18:15Edgar could set a horse down and not dissuade the horse from,
00:18:19you know, overreacting and without having the horse overreact to his urging.
00:18:25Very strong work ethic.
00:18:26But Edgar was, you know, was a bit of a hothead back in the day.
00:18:29I remember when he first moved to Maryland,
00:18:32he got in a couple of fights in the jockey's room there.
00:18:34And as I was going back through, looking at some of the stories from the 1980s,
00:18:39one of the quotes that stood out from Edgar to me said,
00:18:43you know, he eventually shed off that fiery edge.
00:18:46He said he was just trying to prove himself when he was young,
00:18:48like a lot of jockeys have to do.
00:18:50He took some, in his own words, some dicey chances.
00:18:54And he later said, you know, when you win
00:18:57and you get on the good horses, you ride with a cooler head.
00:18:59And that's the Edgar that we remember later on in his career.
00:19:02He'll forever be associated with winning the 2006 derby on Barbaro.
00:19:06But he had a couple of other big triple crown upsets.
00:19:09He was aboard Sarava in the Belmont Stakes when Sarava popped at 70 to 1.
00:19:13And he also foiled Sparty Jones' bid for the triple crown in 2004.
00:19:18He was on Birdstone that day.
00:19:21Now, we want to bring your attention to the Goodolphin's TIEA awards.
00:19:25And TIEA stands for the Thoroughbred Industry Employee Award.
00:19:29It goes each year to somebody that works in the thoroughbred industry
00:19:33who deserves recognition for excellence in a job well done.
00:19:36And we caught up with a previous winner of the award, Sandy Hatfield.
00:19:41And she is able to tell us why this award matters
00:19:44and why farms should nominate their employees to something that's very important, the TIEA awards.
00:19:50I'm Sandy Hatfield, and I'm the stallion manager at Three Chimneys Farm.
00:19:54And I was lucky enough to win the Goodolphin Award in 2018.
00:19:58I won it for the leadership in the breeding category.
00:20:02And when they told me I was nominated, I was just so excited.
00:20:06It's just an honor to be nominated.
00:20:08And for Goodolphin to get these awards out to the people that work with the horses every day,
00:20:13I just think that's so exciting.
00:20:15And then to go to the awards ceremony and meet all the other nominees,
00:20:19I met so many nice people, so many cool people.
00:20:22And then to win was amazing.
00:20:23I just never thought in my wildest dreams that I would win.
00:20:27And it's just a great thing to think about.
00:20:30Your peers and the people that you work with every day are saying that you're good at what you do.
00:20:38So it's wonderful.
00:20:40And to see the young people that were there,
00:20:42it makes you feel good about how the industry is going to go forward.
00:20:46I think they were all so excited, especially the young up-and-coming awards.
00:20:51They were all so excited.
00:20:53And the people that were in the racing categories, the grooms and the assistants.
00:20:57And you know, the guy that won couldn't even stay.
00:21:00He had to get back because he was running a horse that afternoon.
00:21:02So it was just exciting to see all those people
00:21:05and to see them recognized for the hard work that we put in six, seven days a week.
00:21:11And for Goodolphin to sponsor those awards is just amazing.
00:21:14The nominations close on July the 16th for the awards.
00:21:19And we all know somebody that is exceptional that could be nominated.
00:21:24And just to be nominated, I can tell you, it's so exciting.
00:21:27So please think about who you would nominate.
00:21:31And there's so many different categories.
00:21:32Everybody can find a category to nominate somebody in.
00:21:35But remember, they close on July the 16th.
00:21:38So get your nomination in.
00:21:58Who are your unsung heroes?
00:22:00Have you nominated?
00:22:02Visit TIEA.org and nominate a deserving candidate today.
00:22:06What are you waiting for?
00:22:07Why haven't you nominated yet?
00:22:12Meanwhile, the TDN Writer's Room is brought to you
00:22:14by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association.
00:22:17Another reminder about the Pennsylvania Sired,
00:22:19Pennsylvania Bred series for two-year-olds.
00:22:23Back and better than ever on three different days, right?
00:22:27Race for two-year-olds, race for two-year-old fillies.
00:22:29Monday, August 21st, those stakes are worth $100,000.
00:22:33Saturday, September 23rd, they're worth $150,000.
00:22:36And then December the 27th, they're each worth $200,000.
00:22:40There's also a combined $50,000 bonus structure to the trainer
00:22:44and the top three equine point earners.
00:22:47Now, you only have till the end of this month, June the 30th,
00:22:50to nominate your PA Sired, PA Bred horse.
00:22:53$1,000 is the fee.
00:22:54On July the 1st, that fee will go up to $5,000.
00:22:59You can learn more about this at pabred.com.
00:23:04Coming up next, Green Group Guest of the Week, Mr. Pat Cummings.
00:23:09The PA Horse Breeders Association presents
00:23:11the Pennsylvania Stallion Series.
00:23:14Six races for PA Sired, PA Bred two-year-olds at parks.
00:23:18Two $100,000 contests at five and a half fur lines.
00:23:21On August 21st, PA Day at the Races.
00:23:24September 23rd, PA Derby Day,
00:23:27as two races at six and a half fur lines,
00:23:30both with a $150,000 purse.
00:23:32And in December, two races going long, each worth $200,000.
00:23:36For more, go to pabred.com.
00:23:39And now it's time for the fastest horse of the week,
00:23:41presented by the fast sires at Windstar Farms,
00:23:44such as the grade one winning millionaire.
00:23:46By smart strike, that would be Tom's D'Etat,
00:23:50a dominant three and a quarter length winner
00:23:52of the Clark Stakes at Churchill Downs.
00:23:54On that day, he ran a mile on an eighth at 148.84,
00:23:57and earned a buyer's speed figure of 105.
00:24:00He earned 10 triple digit buyer's speed figures in his career,
00:24:04including nine in a row.
00:24:06Tom's D'Etat's first yearlings, or weanlings rather,
00:24:09sold for up to $130,000,
00:24:12and his first yearlings will arrive at sales this summer.
00:24:17Now, speaking of a 105 buyer's speed figure
00:24:20that Tom's D'Etat earned,
00:24:21we have co-fastest horse of the weeks this week,
00:24:25both with a 105 buyer.
00:24:28Of course, it was two fills
00:24:30who won the Ohio Derby very impressively,
00:24:32but also Society, the winner of the Chicago Stakes
00:24:36on Saturday at Ellis Park.
00:24:38Society won that race by 10 lengths.
00:24:40We've seen in the past,
00:24:41Society be able to really reel off some fast times,
00:24:45some fast figures when she's at her very best.
00:24:48She was certainly at her best on Saturday.
00:24:51So, two fastest horses of the week,
00:24:54both two fills and Society.
00:24:58Now, for the Green Group Guest of the Week,
00:25:01the TDN Writer's Room, of course,
00:25:02is brought to you by the Green Group,
00:25:04a tax accounting and advisory firm
00:25:06specializing in the thoroughbred industry
00:25:08and in saving you money on your taxes.
00:25:12And we welcome in now the Green Group Guest of the Week,
00:25:15Patrick Cummings from the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation.
00:25:18We brought him on to talk about his recent paper
00:25:21he put out, white paper or press release,
00:25:24whatever you wanna call it,
00:25:25about the effects of CAW,
00:25:27Computer Assisted Wagering, players on horse racing.
00:25:31But Pat, before we get to that,
00:25:33I wanna know, what the heck are you doing in South Africa?
00:25:36Oh, I've got friends over here.
00:25:38I've made the trip a couple times before
00:25:40and this coming Saturday is the 127th running
00:25:44of the Durban July, a handicap over a mile and three eights.
00:25:49It's a great race.
00:25:50I came into Durban the other day,
00:25:53all around the baggage claim in the airport
00:25:55was nothing but Durban July marketing.
00:26:00They'll get about 50,000 people out on Saturday.
00:26:03It's billed as one of the top social events of the year.
00:26:06Really in all of South Africa,
00:26:08there was advertising on the plane down.
00:26:12I mean, in the video screens, it was really incredible.
00:26:15So it's a fun place to be
00:26:18and it's great for anyone that has US dollars
00:26:21because they go a heck of a lot farther here
00:26:22than just about anywhere else in the world.
00:26:25So I wonder how the CAW players
00:26:26are gonna attack the car on Saturday in Durban.
00:26:29If anybody knows the answers to that, it's Pat Cummings
00:26:31because the work he's done
00:26:33on what is a very important issue in thoroughbred racing
00:26:36has been important work.
00:26:38And he's really digging into the statistics
00:26:41more so than anybody else to try to get some answers
00:26:44to the many questions that we have about this.
00:26:46Patrick, your latest report you put out
00:26:48for the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation
00:26:50was called Sharks and Minnows.
00:26:52And I think the sub headline would be
00:26:54that the sharks are getting bigger
00:26:55and the minnows are getting smaller.
00:26:57Is that the case and tell us why?
00:26:59Yeah, it is.
00:27:00And I think most of us are minnows at the end of the day.
00:27:05And there are a couple of sharks
00:27:06and two in particular have gotten quite big in recent years.
00:27:12Yeah, it's just the reality.
00:27:14Now, I think it's worth putting into perspective
00:27:16that the data that we present in the story
00:27:18is from California and specifically Del Mar
00:27:21as the largest independent track that does not own an ADW
00:27:25and really doesn't own the direct CAW relationships
00:27:30like we see with both Santa Anita and Golden Gate
00:27:33through the first family of companies
00:27:36where there is a connection to the CAW ownership itself.
00:27:41Del Mar doesn't have that.
00:27:42And so we thought they were a great example to use
00:27:44to show how much total wagering is coming
00:27:48from these groups that are using algorithms,
00:27:50programs to not just analyze the races
00:27:53but to structure their bets and then to actually place them.
00:27:57And the greater horse racing industry in America
00:28:00has given these groups unfettered access
00:28:05to place essentially all of their bets
00:28:08with the click of one button instantaneously.
00:28:12That value or that opportunity does not exist
00:28:15to any other player in the marketplace.
00:28:18And these groups have grown to the point now
00:28:21where we break it down by pool.
00:28:23But in some pools, they are pushing almost 40%
00:28:28of total betting at Del Mar in 2022.
00:28:32It's really significant and it's grown even more significant
00:28:36in just the last five years.
00:28:38Well, let's look at this from 35,000 feet, okay?
00:28:42Let's give just an overview for people watching
00:28:45that may be involved in owning horses, breeding horses
00:28:49but they don't really grasp the gravity
00:28:53of this particular situation.
00:28:55Why should someone who loves horse racing,
00:28:59who's involved in horse racing,
00:29:01be concerned about the rise of the CAWs?
00:29:06Yeah, so as we alluded to just a second ago there, Randy,
00:29:10not only are the sharks growing
00:29:11but the minnows are declining.
00:29:13And we, for the first time in this paper,
00:29:16were able to really separate how the CAW play has grown
00:29:22and how all other customers have,
00:29:25in almost every pool, shrunk.
00:29:28So while total handle figures are often marketed
00:29:33in industry press releases, they're touted
00:29:36and you see on an annual basis, not a whole lot of change.
00:29:40A point here, a point there, 2%, 2% up, 2% down.
00:29:45That's not telling us the accurate picture.
00:29:47And for years now, Thoroughbred Idea Foundation
00:29:50has wanted to really dive into who's betting,
00:29:53how are they betting, how are they participating,
00:29:55how is the market changing?
00:29:57What we're seeing now more clearly than ever before
00:30:01is that it's all other customers.
00:30:04We're talking about people that may bet $10 a year
00:30:07or maybe even $2 million a year.
00:30:10They are a smaller percentage of the pools and declining.
00:30:16So racing gets its social license
00:30:19from people who participate in it.
00:30:22And if we have a smaller base of participants
00:30:24that are engaging racing through wagering,
00:30:28that is a problem across the entirety of the sport.
00:30:31And that is what we are seeing here.
00:30:33These numbers that California provides,
00:30:35that no other state provides, mind you,
00:30:39is giving us this insight and it is concerning.
00:30:42And I think it's, as we address,
00:30:44something that the industry needs to take seriously
00:30:46and to make some changes to how it engages
00:30:50its most professional, largest bettors,
00:30:53and certainly its most mainstream,
00:30:56the widest base of its customers.
00:30:59Pat, is it a stretch to say that there could be
00:31:03like a doomsday scenario coming into play here,
00:31:06whereby eventually if all the sharks
00:31:09force the minnows out of the game
00:31:12and they're chasing what is,
00:31:13we would call in quotes, the stupid money,
00:31:16the uninformed money.
00:31:17Once all the minnows have been depleted,
00:31:20I would assume the sharks aren't going to feast on each other.
00:31:22They will just vacate the game and they'll pull back.
00:31:24Is that a possibility?
00:31:26Not only a possibility, I'd call it a real threat, TD.
00:31:30And I would suggest that some of the biggest sharks
00:31:34are eating some of the smaller ones too.
00:31:36And so we were able to go back in this paper for six years,
00:31:41but we've collected data from the CHRB dating back to 2008.
00:31:45Look, this was not always the issue it is now.
00:31:49The greater U.S. horse racing industry
00:31:51commissioned a study through the NTRA back in 2003
00:31:55and found that at that time,
00:31:56the CAW betting was roughly seven or 8% of total handle.
00:32:01We think that number today
00:32:02is now at least over a third of total betting
00:32:06and it's higher in certain pools.
00:32:08This affects essentially almost every racetrack
00:32:12and almost every pool.
00:32:14So it's incredibly widespread, but the threat is twofold.
00:32:17Number one, if the biggest of the big players
00:32:22get a slightly better deal somewhere else,
00:32:25let's say that French racing comes along and says,
00:32:28we're going to give you this voluminous rebate
00:32:32and then they leave because America is not able to match that,
00:32:35that becomes problematic.
00:32:37So there is a threat that if one or two
00:32:40of the biggest customers decide
00:32:42we're getting out of the business,
00:32:43we're shifting our focus to sports,
00:32:45shifting to something else,
00:32:46you could literally see roughly 20%
00:32:50of American handle on wagering
00:32:52walk away from one or two players.
00:32:56But the degradation of the base,
00:32:58I think is the most concerning thing.
00:33:00It has been slow.
00:33:01We have felt it.
00:33:02We have seen the industry shift
00:33:05from exclusively on track,
00:33:08where if you wanted to wager and essentially gamble,
00:33:10you had to be on track to do it,
00:33:13to off-track betting, to full-scale simulcasting,
00:33:17to ADWs, then the pandemic,
00:33:21to literally say, we can't have you here in some cases.
00:33:26So we've seen this traumatic push over the years
00:33:31that has allowed many racetrack and track operators
00:33:33to not focus on the customers,
00:33:35that are right there in front of them.
00:33:37There are fewer and fewer people
00:33:38that go to the racetrack.
00:33:39So one statistic that we found in this
00:33:41that I don't even think we pointed out
00:33:43directly in the paper,
00:33:44but if you just looked at raw numbers,
00:33:46forget even adjusting for inflation,
00:33:48on-track show betting at Del Mar.
00:33:51Del Mar, already a track
00:33:53that gets a large daily attendance
00:33:55and has a very high number of amateur bettors,
00:33:59essentially, that come out.
00:34:00Casual horse players.
00:34:02The on-track show bet should be fairly strong
00:34:05for this crowd over some other tracks.
00:34:08On-track show betting was down 18%
00:34:11in the five years from 2018 to 2022,
00:34:14and that was not adjusting for inflation at all.
00:34:17Whereas the biggest CAWs,
00:34:20their show betting has grown 170%
00:34:24or 128% when you adjust for inflation.
00:34:28Those are significant changes.
00:34:30These are concerns.
00:34:31They should concern the track operators,
00:34:33but really the horsemen.
00:34:35And the horsemen have to come into consideration here
00:34:38because horsemen have contract signatory rights
00:34:41over interstate wagering contracts,
00:34:44and they need to be a part of the...
00:34:48They need the wagering.
00:34:50They need the license to continue operating,
00:34:52and that comes from wagering.
00:34:54If we see a continued degradation,
00:34:57the horsemen are in trouble here long-term
00:34:59without greater oversight.
00:35:01Pat, T.D. brought up something
00:35:03that I've always felt about this situation.
00:35:06He used the word doomsday,
00:35:08and that word is appropriate
00:35:10because the reasons you just said
00:35:13that they're gonna eat up all the minnows,
00:35:15and then they start eating up the larger sharks,
00:35:17and all of a sudden we're left with three super bettors
00:35:19betting against each other.
00:35:22Now, I'm realizing that that's not totally realistic,
00:35:24but we are definitely heading in that direction.
00:35:28And you touched on this.
00:35:30If you don't ban these guys,
00:35:33we're gonna continue down this road.
00:35:35It gets worse and worse every year,
00:35:37and it's a huge problem for racing.
00:35:38They're driving the regular guy out of the game.
00:35:41But if you do ban them,
00:35:42you lose 25% of your handle.
00:35:45So I know you have some suggestions
00:35:48to make the situation better,
00:35:51but in all honesty,
00:35:53they'll make things a little bit easier to swallow,
00:35:56but I don't think they solve any of the bigger problems.
00:35:58What is the solution to this problem,
00:36:00or is there just no solution?
00:36:02Now, my greatest source of optimism,
00:36:04really in all of racing,
00:36:06is that when it comes to the wagering business
00:36:09on American horse racing,
00:36:10it's like we're not even trying.
00:36:12So if we start applying ourselves
00:36:14and tackling these sorts of issues,
00:36:17I think it's incredibly possible
00:36:19to kind of get a handle on this
00:36:21and to start making some changes.
00:36:23And the greatest example of this
00:36:25is the New York Racing Association.
00:36:27So they are one of the minority owners
00:36:30of Elite Turf Club,
00:36:32the biggest betting services provider
00:36:34for the CAW bettors.
00:36:37They, two years ago,
00:36:40shut out the CAWs from betting in the wind pool
00:36:43inside of two minutes to post.
00:36:45They didn't stop them in exact as try,
00:36:47supers, doubles, pick threes, or pick fours.
00:36:50They did take one of their pick fives,
00:36:52the late pick five,
00:36:53and said no CAW players in this late pick five either.
00:36:56So if an ordinary horse player
00:36:58wants to go to a pool
00:36:59that is relatively free of the CAWs
00:37:02and is not going to see their late win odds
00:37:06come crashing down,
00:37:06horse goes in the gate at seven to one,
00:37:08comes out at seven to two,
00:37:10something that happens at almost every track
00:37:12in America on a regular basis,
00:37:15Naira is the place for you.
00:37:18And if you think you may have missed stories
00:37:22that suggested that Naira's handle
00:37:23has plummeted as a result of this,
00:37:25I assure you, you have not, right?
00:37:27If one of the owners
00:37:29of the CAW betting service providers can say,
00:37:33we can operate our races totally fine
00:37:36without them in the pools,
00:37:38in the wind pool,
00:37:38inside of two minutes to post,
00:37:40and not in our late pick five pool,
00:37:42I think a lot of other tracks
00:37:43could tolerate that as well.
00:37:46There are other steps.
00:37:48We have been walking around
00:37:50showing will pays on our track feeds
00:37:53for 30 seconds,
00:37:5620 minutes before the start of the next race.
00:37:59For years, they sit on our ADW platforms
00:38:03and they are just a dollar amount.
00:38:06We need to start converting that information
00:38:08into imputed odds.
00:38:11Put those on track feeds,
00:38:13put them on television broadcasts,
00:38:15because we are hopelessly misleading customers
00:38:18if they think that this horse
00:38:20that is currently seven to one
00:38:22and has been seven to one for 20 minutes
00:38:25is going to go off at seven to one.
00:38:27When you have a previously closed wagering pool,
00:38:30like the double, the pick three, the pick four,
00:38:33where it is now clear
00:38:35that this horse is very likely
00:38:37to be the second choice in the race
00:38:39and he's sitting there at seven to one
00:38:41fourth choice right now,
00:38:43why mislead our customers
00:38:44when there is actually a solution to say,
00:38:46this is actually a better representation
00:38:49of how a previously closed wagering market
00:38:52has reflected the win probability
00:38:55of this particular horse.
00:38:57And those same bettors
00:38:58that made that horse seven to two in the pick four,
00:39:00they're going to be coming back in the wind pool too,
00:39:02unless they've put in a Naira-like policy
00:39:05to limit them inside of two minutes to post.
00:39:07Those sorts of things can easily be put in place
00:39:10and no one's done it.
00:39:12So that's, again, what I suggest.
00:39:16We can be optimistic about the possibilities
00:39:18because as it stands today,
00:39:20we're basically not trying anything.
00:39:23So I do think there is hope here
00:39:26that we can avoid the doomsday scenario
00:39:28and we can really affect a more positive outcome
00:39:32for everyone who's participating.
00:39:33And frankly, that includes the CAWs
00:39:36who should be shouting this from the rooftops too, right?
00:39:39They're getting big rebates.
00:39:40They want to continue participating
00:39:42and the public has a really bad impression of them.
00:39:47And I think rightfully so
00:39:48because the industry isn't helping that,
00:39:50their case along either.
00:39:51So I want to get your professional opinion about something.
00:39:54People might be wondering this.
00:39:56All this CAW money that's now flooding the mutual pools,
00:40:01is it, in your opinion,
00:40:02is it disguising an overall weakness in the sport
00:40:10from the everyday customers?
00:40:12A decline that likely would have happened anyway
00:40:17without the CAW.
00:40:19Or as we've discussed the Sharks versus the Minnows,
00:40:23are the CAW players,
00:40:25how much are they actually chasing
00:40:28regular bettors out of the game?
00:40:31It's both, Randy, I believe.
00:40:33I think undoubtedly it is glossing over the reality.
00:40:37So it makes general industry stakeholders
00:40:41feel better about themselves when they see the report
00:40:44the total handle is only down 1% or 2%.
00:40:47When in reality, CAW handle is up
00:40:50and all other customers are down
00:40:52and they're not balancing out.
00:40:55We don't see those kind of line items
00:40:58in those sorts of press releases.
00:41:00So it has been making everybody feel better,
00:41:03but for what purpose, right?
00:41:06We just need to be much more straightforward.
00:41:08And there is no central reporting body in this sport
00:41:12that is putting this information out on a regular basis.
00:41:15We found it through the CHRB.
00:41:19Others have found it too.
00:41:21But so that's something that needs to be addressed.
00:41:25We just need to be in touch with truth and reality.
00:41:28We can also be against progress, right?
00:41:31We need modernization and innovation.
00:41:34And frankly, CAWs do represent that.
00:41:38We need more CAWs.
00:41:40We need more young engineers and models
00:41:44and modelers and programmers
00:41:46who wanna get their hands on racing's data
00:41:49and they put some programs together
00:41:51and try and tackle this.
00:41:53And maybe they just start out by tackling two-year-old races,
00:41:55right, and they're making pedigree plays.
00:41:58Maybe it's dirt sprints, right?
00:42:01And that's what they focus on.
00:42:02But we need more people to be engaged in this.
00:42:05And right now it's not.
00:42:06Right now it's a handful of individuals.
00:42:09We have not tried to pursue that market
00:42:11and to make that a little bit better.
00:42:14I would say though, a significant point of concern
00:42:20is that the cost of wagering has only gone up
00:42:25for all other customers, right?
00:42:28Takeout rates have not come down commensurate
00:42:31with all of this money coming in at low price points
00:42:36and driven by technology.
00:42:38And that's the opposite experience
00:42:40that investors have had
00:42:43with all of the high-frequency trading
00:42:45in the equity markets.
00:42:48We have seen costs for customers come crashing down, right?
00:42:51The days of the $35 stock commission are long gone.
00:42:57And yet 50, 60, maybe even 70% of all trading
00:43:02on the stock market now is high-frequency trading.
00:43:06Ordinary investors in 401ks and IRAs
00:43:10regular mutual fund holders, exchange traded funds,
00:43:13different products have been created
00:43:16to allow ordinary investors to buy and hold.
00:43:20And their costs have come down
00:43:21from where they were 20 years ago.
00:43:23We have not seen that same evolution
00:43:26in American horse racing wagering
00:43:28which remains one of the most expensive gambles
00:43:31that are out there.
00:43:33And as the products around us have developed
00:43:37and become far more consumable, approachable
00:43:40on remote devices, sports betting is now ubiquitous,
00:43:46legal in 39 States, I think we're talking about now.
00:43:49The competition is more fierce than ever before
00:43:52and at lower price points,
00:43:53generally speaking for customers.
00:43:55Racing needs to compete.
00:43:57And like I suggested,
00:43:58it's like we haven't really been trying.
00:44:00So the hope remains in what is still undone.
00:44:04And I think we can do a lot in that space.
00:44:07One of the things that I found very eye-opening
00:44:09about reading your report,
00:44:10which anybody can go and read,
00:44:12it's on the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation website,
00:44:14was the tremendous negotiating power
00:44:17these individuals who bet through the CAWs
00:44:20have with individual tracks.
00:44:23And you mentioned one case that is,
00:44:25there was almost an offer that the tracks couldn't refuse
00:44:28that amounted to what you described
00:44:30as a payday loan type of scenario.
00:44:32Could you touch on that just to give an example
00:44:34of how the CAW players negotiate with tracks
00:44:37to get these advantageous rates
00:44:39that are way out of reach for the $2 better?
00:44:42So the planning and the research for this paper
00:44:45has been ongoing really for years, TD.
00:44:48And different stories have come to me,
00:44:51some of our consultants over the years.
00:44:54And this is one that's cropped up in recent months
00:44:58where it is believed,
00:45:01and we've been told,
00:45:02I've been told individually
00:45:04by multiple racetrack executives,
00:45:06different tracks,
00:45:08that some of the biggest players
00:45:11were approaching tracks and offering a deal
00:45:15in which they would prepay a portion of their host fee,
00:45:20essentially their takeout
00:45:23in advance of that year's races at that track.
00:45:27So the big CAW goes to track A and says,
00:45:31we paid you a host fee of $300,000 last year.
00:45:34So we're gonna wire you today, hypothetically,
00:45:38$300,000, let's say.
00:45:41And you keep track
00:45:42and you tell us when we get to that point
00:45:44of what we would have accrued.
00:45:46But after that,
00:45:48we want a reduction in the host fee
00:45:51that we pay on all money over that amount.
00:45:54So essentially you are trying to create a deal
00:45:57where you as the track
00:45:58are going to get a bunch of money upfront
00:46:01and then reduce the host fee
00:46:04on already the one or two biggest horse players
00:46:07in the country
00:46:09that will enable that horse player
00:46:11to drive a price on a horse to say three to two
00:46:15that the other CAWs think is probably fair at two to one
00:46:19that the mainstream players think is fair
00:46:20at five to two or three to one.
00:46:23And what price do you think that horse
00:46:24is gonna end up at?
00:46:25It's gonna end up at three to two, right?
00:46:27Because you are creating this unhealthy economic situation
00:46:33that throws all of the accolades,
00:46:36all of the favors go into the hands
00:46:38of the biggest one or two players.
00:46:41Now, the three track executives
00:46:43that I spoke with on this
00:46:44all claimed that they did not accept this deal.
00:46:47But since we have published this paper,
00:46:49I did hear that there is at least one track in America
00:46:53that has accepted this deal
00:46:54and is operating it this year.
00:46:56Now, it's not my place to say it
00:46:59because I can't confirm it directly.
00:47:01But it is worth noting that that in fact is happening.
00:47:07It's believed to be happening.
00:47:09And I think that all of the other CAW players
00:47:13who aren't these one or two biggest customers
00:47:15who are shopping these deals
00:47:17are probably pretty unhappy with that too, right?
00:47:20That it creates essentially a tiered structure
00:47:23and that someone else is still getting a better deal.
00:47:26Pat, among the suggestions that you had
00:47:29for how to deal with this situation,
00:47:30I thought the one that was most pertinent
00:47:33and one that is realistic that could happen
00:47:35is that we have to stop offering these jackpot bets.
00:47:39And they're sucker bets.
00:47:41With or without the CAWs, they're sucker bets.
00:47:43What we're seeing is that there's no churn.
00:47:46It ties up everybody's money.
00:47:48And at the end of the day,
00:47:49the jackpots are scooped up by the CAW players
00:47:53and the regular player again goes away
00:47:56with nothing but losses to show for it.
00:47:59Tell us more about that.
00:48:01And we have seen some tracks adopt this.
00:48:05Obviously, you hope that we see more.
00:48:08Yeah, so Naira had a jackpot provision on their pick six.
00:48:12They eliminated it.
00:48:13Keeneland had a super high five jackpot.
00:48:16They've gotten rid of it.
00:48:19In 2023, I believe Horseshoe Indianapolis
00:48:22eliminated their jackpot play.
00:48:25That is a trend we hope catches on and catches on yesterday.
00:48:30That's fantastic movement.
00:48:32But for the tracks that still have it,
00:48:35it defies all logic to continue it.
00:48:38The data that we present in this Sharks and Minnows piece,
00:48:41there's two elements of it that focused on the pick six.
00:48:44One was that it was the only pool
00:48:47that experienced any meaningful growth
00:48:50from ordinary horse players at Del Mar
00:48:52in the five years that we studied.
00:48:54That's really disappointing.
00:48:57The biggest change that occurred
00:48:59during that five-year period of time
00:49:01is that in 2021,
00:49:03Del Mar decreased the minimum investment
00:49:05on the jackpot play to 20 cents.
00:49:08So it became far more approachable for more players
00:49:11and handle has grown tremendously.
00:49:14Unfortunately, it's grown even more
00:49:16from the CAW users as a result.
00:49:19And while we weren't able to
00:49:20and aren't able to break down
00:49:23exactly what days the CAWs are playing,
00:49:26I would venture a guess
00:49:27that the vast majority of their money
00:49:29is coming in on mandatory payout day.
00:49:32A conventional wisdom would always suggest
00:49:34the mandatory payout day is the day you should play.
00:49:37There's free money in there, right?
00:49:39And in a case of a track like Gulfstream or Del Mar,
00:49:43sometimes those jackpots are really large
00:49:45and you think, yeah,
00:49:46that now's my opportunity to go into it.
00:49:49The reality is you're probably gonna lose anyway, right?
00:49:51It's very tough to pick six winners
00:49:53and I can assure you,
00:49:54sometimes I have trouble picking one.
00:49:56I don't think I'm alone in that regard.
00:49:58But the jackpot in particular,
00:50:01what we have seen from data
00:50:02that we got out of the state of Florida
00:50:04had to pay for it,
00:50:05had to analyze it,
00:50:06it was not straightforward.
00:50:08But we saw that ordinary customers
00:50:11return on investments on mandatory payout days
00:50:15was like maybe two times worse than the takeout,
00:50:19than the actual takeout rate.
00:50:20So if the takeout rate on a blended takeout was 21%,
00:50:25we'd see mainstream ADW players losing 40, 50,
00:50:30and in some cases, 60% of their investment
00:50:33on the entirety of mandatory payout day.
00:50:36So we weren't even able to isolate
00:50:38the individual pool in Florida.
00:50:39We're just looking at the entirety of the day
00:50:42and it was all bad news.
00:50:45So if you run a parimutuel wagering business
00:50:48and your goal is to keep collecting commissions
00:50:52on parimutuel wagering,
00:50:54then the introduction of a bet
00:50:56that limits the number of times
00:51:00that a customer can keep coming back to your window
00:51:03and churning their money
00:51:04and reintroducing the takeout cycle on that money.
00:51:08If your goal is to introduce a bet that limits that,
00:51:13you're going in complete contravention
00:51:15to all traditional business logic
00:51:18that would drive customers back into your wagering pools.
00:51:23And yet, tracks continue to persist with these bets.
00:51:29And like I've heard stories from horse players
00:51:31that think it's all one big conspiracy.
00:51:33And I understand that, you know,
00:51:35anointing the next conspiracy theory
00:51:37is maybe a 2023 trend,
00:51:40but it's some sort of added rebate
00:51:44for these big professional players.
00:51:47I don't buy that,
00:51:50but I can understand where people would think
00:51:52that that is even a possibility.
00:51:54The jackpots need to go as quickly as possible
00:51:58at all tracks, revert to a traditional play,
00:52:01get that daily payout,
00:52:03get that daily payout,
00:52:05get that churn up.
00:52:06The sport needs churn.
00:52:08It's better for every stakeholder along the way.
00:52:12Might not be better for CAWs on mandatory payout day
00:52:15because they seem to do pretty well.
00:52:17So Patrick, when I explain to casual horse players,
00:52:20friends of mine,
00:52:20the economics behind the CAW players
00:52:23and about how they can have
00:52:25their fancy expensive algorithms
00:52:28and really they can have a goal
00:52:30of just breaking even on their wagers
00:52:32and then clean up with all the rebates
00:52:34that they're getting.
00:52:35And a lot of these rebates began offshore.
00:52:38How many American racetracks
00:52:40or American racing organizations,
00:52:44track owners are offering rebates
00:52:46to CAWs themselves?
00:52:49I think it's almost all.
00:52:52The potential loan exception is probably Oaklawn.
00:52:59To my understanding,
00:53:01they have dabbled very lightly in this,
00:53:03if at all.
00:53:05Of course, very little of this information
00:53:07is public, Randy, right?
00:53:09So for the CAWs,
00:53:13almost everybody is engaging in this.
00:53:16And what would you estimate
00:53:17most of those rebates would be?
00:53:22For the biggest CAWs,
00:53:24I think they're probably in the ballpark
00:53:27of 15% rebates.
00:53:30On exotic bets,
00:53:32it could be as high as 20%.
00:53:33On things like the wind bets,
00:53:35it's probably lower, closer to 10%.
00:53:38And it's going to vary by track,
00:53:40by signal, by pool.
00:53:43But we're definitely in the double digits.
00:53:45So we always talk about in this sport
00:53:47about how important takeout is.
00:53:49And we've been,
00:53:50all of us have been beating this drum for so long
00:53:52about reducing the takeout for bettors.
00:53:55If these CAWs are betting so much money at these tracks,
00:53:59and the tracks are willingly giving them
00:54:0110, 15% rebate,
00:54:04why can't they just slash the takeout rate
00:54:07by that much for everybody?
00:54:10It is the greatest example
00:54:14I think I've ever seen
00:54:16that pricing matters to bettors
00:54:18is just how much the CAWs have grown
00:54:21as their rebates have increased.
00:54:23Yes.
00:54:24Right?
00:54:24This is the case study
00:54:26that shows that pricing actually does matter.
00:54:29If you are increasing the amount
00:54:31back into the hands of players,
00:54:33it is driving them to wager more.
00:54:37That should matter for horse racing.
00:54:39So to keep a very wide base of your customers
00:54:43at a very high price point
00:54:46to essentially pay them less when they win
00:54:50or not pay them at all when they lose
00:54:52and not incentivize them to come back
00:54:56has hurt their participation.
00:54:58And now with so many other options
00:55:00for how to spend one's discretionary income
00:55:03that's dedicated for gambling
00:55:06in some way, shape or form,
00:55:09I think we've really missed the boat there.
00:55:11But this is a walking example
00:55:14of economic incentives
00:55:16and the CAWs have responded
00:55:18very clearly to lower price points.
00:55:21Now, to more directly answer your question, Randy,
00:55:24I think it's because in some jurisdictions
00:55:26changing takeout rates is hard.
00:55:29And so the focus has gone to ways
00:55:32in which we can skirt this
00:55:33and have some similar effect.
00:55:35So in California, for example,
00:55:38the takeout rates are set by statute.
00:55:41You have to change the law.
00:55:44And horse racing, as we all know,
00:55:46has experienced a lot of issues in recent years.
00:55:49And I think it's just tougher
00:55:51to go to legislators and lobby and say,
00:55:55the rates that we hold need to come down.
00:55:58And it's particularly tough in a place like California
00:56:02where there are no other sources of prize money.
00:56:06The wagering alone is the source of prize money.
00:56:09However, the enormity of the task,
00:56:12the difficulty thereof,
00:56:13should not be what dissuades us
00:56:16from trying to better
00:56:19the overall long-term outcomes of the industry
00:56:22and making our sport as sustainable as possible
00:56:25on wagering on our own races.
00:56:27So despite the difficulty
00:56:31that changing takeout in certain states
00:56:33at a statutory level,
00:56:34we need to fight that.
00:56:37We need to be as competitive as possible.
00:56:40And in some states,
00:56:40that's gonna be a tougher political lift than others.
00:56:43But there really should be no excuse for our business.
00:56:47We should be trying on all fronts
00:56:49to get more people wagering.
00:56:51Pat, the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation
00:56:53has been around for, I believe, about six years now.
00:56:55And you essentially function, in my opinion,
00:57:00as an ombudsman for the sport.
00:57:02And a lot of your reports that you write
00:57:04just read like investigative journalism.
00:57:07And they're all tied together.
00:57:08You've covered the integrity of the tote system,
00:57:11retention and development of existing customers,
00:57:14the issue about penny breakage.
00:57:16And that was a big bright spot.
00:57:17You wrote about that back in 2018.
00:57:20It took four years,
00:57:21but eventually Kentucky did adopt
00:57:22the penny breakage in 2022.
00:57:25Where do we stand on the horizon?
00:57:27Anybody else gonna jump aboard
00:57:29the penny breakage to your knowledge?
00:57:31I hope so, TD.
00:57:33I don't have any more wins
00:57:37in that regard to report right now.
00:57:38But similarly,
00:57:40it's a heavy lift in certain jurisdictions
00:57:43and others maybe not so much.
00:57:45I've tried some very small ones
00:57:46and it's tough to get anybody to respond.
00:57:49To be fair,
00:57:50the whole breakage conversation started in New York,
00:57:53where I thought this might be the easiest spot
00:57:56because New York already had
00:57:58the nation's most liberal breakage policy
00:58:00thanks to some really great work
00:58:02from Steve Crist on a panel
00:58:05with Governor Mario Cuomo back in the 1990s.
00:58:09So New York now has the country's
00:58:11second most liberal policy
00:58:13only behind Kentucky.
00:58:15But in getting a change in Kentucky,
00:58:17the political waters had to be just right.
00:58:19There were other things that were going on.
00:58:21There was a paramutual taxation reform initiative.
00:58:25That doesn't happen all that often.
00:58:28But the timing of it just worked out really right.
00:58:30We were in the right place, right time.
00:58:32Had some great legislative support
00:58:34from the likes of Adam Koenig and Damon Thayer
00:58:36and David Osborne, the Speaker of the House.
00:58:41It doesn't work that way everywhere
00:58:43and we know that.
00:58:44The thing is,
00:58:45tracks should be wanting this too, right?
00:58:48Tracks should want their customers
00:58:52to have more money that they can churn.
00:58:55Now, we can't shout from the rooftops
00:58:59that Kentucky is doing better than everybody else
00:59:02exclusively because of breakage.
00:59:04But I can guarantee you this,
00:59:06it's not hurting, right?
00:59:08To what degree it's helping, we don't know.
00:59:11But we tallied the numbers
00:59:13for the Kentucky Derby alone.
00:59:15It was about $500,000
00:59:17just in the win place in Show Pool that went back.
00:59:20Across Oaks and Derby Day,
00:59:21more than a million dollars
00:59:23went back into the hands of horse players
00:59:25in 2023 than in previous years
00:59:29because of this policy.
00:59:32This is good for the sustainability of the sport.
00:59:35It's good for getting more money
00:59:37back into the hands of horse players
00:59:39to let them come and churn it.
00:59:41I appreciate the kind words.
00:59:43It's a tough road.
00:59:44We're continuing to work on the rules of racing
00:59:47to try to minimize the number of
00:59:51unfortunate demotions in the sport.
00:59:55Oklahoma's come on board with that.
00:59:57There's another state that I think
00:59:59and anticipate in the next month or two
01:00:00is going to make a switch.
01:00:03But if you went back, say, 50, 60 years ago,
01:00:08it took about 20 or 30 years prior to that
01:00:12for America to switch from the foul is a foul concept
01:00:15to what we have today
01:00:17that's more generally known as Category 2.
01:00:20Unfortunately, I think it's probably going to take us
01:00:2220 or 30 years to get to Category 1,
01:00:24but I hope not that long.
01:00:28I do think there's another state
01:00:29that's coming on board with that element
01:00:31to try and eliminate some really unjust emotions
01:00:34that I think affect horse players all over the country.
01:00:38Well, Pat, thank you so much
01:00:39for your insights.
01:00:40A fascinating subject and congratulations
01:00:43in all the good work you've done
01:00:44with the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation
01:00:46delving into the issues of CAWs.
01:00:48Enjoy your stay in South Africa.
01:00:50Thanks a lot, guys.
01:00:51Really appreciate the time as always
01:00:53and all the best.
01:00:55And as this week's Green Group
01:00:57guest of the week, Pat Cummings,
01:00:58will receive a free one-hour tax consultation
01:01:02with the Green Group.
01:01:03For more information on how the Green Group
01:01:05can help you and maybe save you money on your taxes,
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01:01:28the Green Group founder, Len Green,
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01:02:14With some of the fullest fields in the country
01:02:16and quality racing year-round,
01:02:19there's never been a better time to reap the rewards
01:02:22of breeding and racing in Kentucky.
01:02:25Purse money in Kentucky is at an all-time high,
01:02:28as is average purse per race,
01:02:30outpacing California, Florida and New York.
01:02:34Kentucky Breads.
01:02:35Breed them.
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01:02:39We all win.
01:02:43The TDN Writers Room is brought to you by Kentucky Breads.
01:02:46Three Royal Ascot winners were bred in Kentucky.
01:02:49Congratulations to the connections of
01:02:51King of Steel, the winner of Friday's
01:02:53Group 2 King Edward VII Steaks,
01:02:55Valiant Force, the winner of Thursday's
01:02:57Group 2 Norfolk Steaks,
01:02:58and Crimson Advocate,
01:03:00the winner of Tuesday's Group 2 Queen Mary Steaks.
01:03:03Royal Ascot winners are bred in Kentucky.
01:03:06So let's get back to some of the news
01:03:08that occurred on the racetrack,
01:03:09and this news occurred in Japan.
01:03:12And the last we saw, Equinox,
01:03:14the horse was running a tremendous race,
01:03:17a hole in the wind,
01:03:18in the Dubai Shima Classic,
01:03:20one of the many Japanese horses that had great success,
01:03:23the races in the Middle East,
01:03:24and was ranked the number one horse in the world.
01:03:29And I can see why,
01:03:30because take a look at what this horse did last Sunday,
01:03:33back in Japan in the Takarusuka Kinnin Steaks.
01:03:37I hate trying to pronounce these things,
01:03:40but I did the best that I can.
01:03:41And you go back and look at the race,
01:03:43a very confident,
01:03:45you could almost say overconfident,
01:03:47ride by Christophe Lemaire.
01:03:48Horse was way back early,
01:03:50went widest in the entire field.
01:03:52He rode the horse like he was a one-to-five shot,
01:03:55and he won this race,
01:03:58a Group 1 back in Japan.
01:04:00The one thing that I didn't see in any of the reports
01:04:02was his status for the Breeders' Cup,
01:04:04because after he won the Dubai Shima Classic,
01:04:08the connections had said that the Breeders' Cup turf
01:04:10was very possible,
01:04:12because they would prefer getting firm turf,
01:04:15which they're much more likely to get at Santa Anita,
01:04:18than they would be at the same time of year,
01:04:20roughly the same time of year,
01:04:21in the Arc de Triomphe in Paris.
01:04:23So it would be great to see Equinox come
01:04:25for the Breeders' Cup,
01:04:27but Racing has a bright star,
01:04:30and once again,
01:04:31another Japanese horse that is making headlines.
01:04:33Now, when Equinox won the Dubai Shima Classic at Maidan,
01:04:40he looked absolutely brilliant.
01:04:42He ran off one by four lengths.
01:04:45One of the horses that finished way behind him,
01:04:47seven lengths behind him,
01:04:48was Mostadoth,
01:04:49who of course came back
01:04:51and won the Prince of Wales this past week at Royal Ascot.
01:04:54What a performance that was for Equinox.
01:04:57In my opinion,
01:04:59the Taka Rizuka Kennen victory,
01:05:03to my way of thinking,
01:05:05in my eyes,
01:05:07a little bit pierces that aura of invincibility
01:05:12that Equinox had going into the race.
01:05:15Yes, he won,
01:05:17and he went wide and all that to win it,
01:05:19but he won it by a neck.
01:05:22The horse that finished second in that race
01:05:24was 55 to 1.
01:05:26His name was Through Seven Seas,
01:05:29who had only won one previous race in his career,
01:05:32and had only had a couple of starts since 2021.
01:05:36And I encourage anyone to go back and go to YouTube
01:05:39and look at the Taka Rizuka Kennen again,
01:05:42and watch not only Equinox,
01:05:44but watch the runner-up,
01:05:46Through Seven Seas,
01:05:47who was farther back early than Equinox,
01:05:50who ran just as wide as Equinox,
01:05:53who was stopped cold at the top of the stretch,
01:05:56and still came within a neck of beating Equinox.
01:06:00Now, he was getting five pounds.
01:06:01It was 128 pounds is what Equinox carried.
01:06:05And it's the mark of a good horse
01:06:07to win a group one stakes anyway
01:06:10when he's not exactly maybe in his best form,
01:06:14in his peak form.
01:06:16But I was a little disappointed
01:06:20in Equinox's manner of victory in Japan,
01:06:23and I'm looking to see him next time
01:06:24bounce back to that same devastating form
01:06:26that he showed in Dubai.
01:06:29Randy Moss, you're a tough critic, my friend.
01:06:32And I think you have to remember too
01:06:34that being 10 or 12 wide at the head of the lane
01:06:37at Hanshin that day
01:06:38seemed to be the better part of the course.
01:06:40I know some riders did not want to get bogged down
01:06:42on the inside in earlier races.
01:06:45And with my rudimentary understanding
01:06:47of the Japanese racing calendar,
01:06:49I believe that is the final group one race
01:06:52in Japan to end the spring season.
01:06:54So the horse is going to be put away for
01:06:57until the autumn anyway.
01:06:58We don't know where he'll resurface,
01:06:59but a beautiful mover with a distinctive white blaze.
01:07:02And it'll be interesting to see where he shows up again.
01:07:05So the big card this weekend is Ellis Park
01:07:07running the races that would have been run
01:07:10otherwise at Churchill Mounds
01:07:12if they didn't decide to move the meat.
01:07:13Six stakes races on the Churchill card,
01:07:15including three graded stakes races.
01:07:17But the big show is the Stephen Foster grade one,
01:07:20mile and eighth, $1 million.
01:07:23It came up with very strong.
01:07:25This division doesn't really have a clear leader.
01:07:28Cody's Wish is the best older horse in the country.
01:07:30But as of right now,
01:07:31he hasn't ventured into the mile and eighth type races.
01:07:34But you have Proxy, Stiletto Boy, Rattle and Roll,
01:07:38Smile Happy, West Willpower, Last Samurai
01:07:41to mention a couple of the horses in the race.
01:07:45I've always been a Smile Happy fan.
01:07:48And I thought he showed a lot of promise last year,
01:07:51running second in the Bluegrass, second in the Risen Star,
01:07:54and was kind of looking for him to make a breakthrough.
01:07:56And he did it last time out in the Alley Sheba Stakes
01:08:00at Churchill Mounds against a very strong field.
01:08:02He beat Art Collector and West Willpower did it fairly.
01:08:05Hanley got that big 110 buyer figure that is...
01:08:09Randy, is that close to the best figure
01:08:11of any horse this year?
01:08:12Older horse, it is, yes.
01:08:14It is, okay.
01:08:14All right.
01:08:16One thing about it though,
01:08:17I did notice that Ken McPeak has two horses in Rattle and Roll,
01:08:20Smile Happy.
01:08:21I'm scratching my head a little bit
01:08:22why Brian Hernandez is riding Rattle and Roll
01:08:25and not Smile Happy.
01:08:26Smile Happy will go with Corey Lanery.
01:08:29But an interesting race to top off the racing at Ellis Park
01:08:33where knock on wood as we speak,
01:08:36has had a perfectly safe meet
01:08:39after a racing moved over from Churchill Mounds.
01:08:42And, you know, Smile Happy in that win
01:08:44in the Alley Sheba Stakes on the Derby Undercard,
01:08:48you know, he had to essentially withstand
01:08:51the two favorites in that race.
01:08:52I mean, he drilled the odds on West Willpower
01:08:56who was on the lead and he ran him down.
01:08:58Then he had to brace himself for Art Collector
01:09:00and he staved him off as well.
01:09:02As for Rattle and Roll,
01:09:04I've always seen him as one of those horses who,
01:09:06you know, he's won three straight races.
01:09:08He seems to be coming into his own as an older horse.
01:09:11And it really takes him a long while to uncoil.
01:09:14He's going to make that one sustained run
01:09:16from the back of the pack.
01:09:17But I think he is going to be a little dependent
01:09:20upon the pace and the trip with,
01:09:22as is any type of horse who comes from that far back.
01:09:25He should get plenty of pace.
01:09:26Speed bias will probably go to the lead.
01:09:28Stiletto boy has speed.
01:09:30I'm anxious to see how Smile Happy runs as well.
01:09:33The 110 buyer is the highest buyer
01:09:35for a two-turned older horse.
01:09:37Cody's Wish got a 112 winning one.
01:09:40The one-turn Metropolitan Handicap.
01:09:43Smile Happy, when he won the Alisheba,
01:09:45was right up there on the lead with West Willpower.
01:09:47They were kind of walking early.
01:09:48He had a fantastic trip.
01:09:51He's going to be a little further back this time.
01:09:52It's going to be interesting.
01:09:53What a race.
01:09:55What a race the Stephen Foster is.
01:09:56It's what you get when you put up a million dollars.
01:09:58And what a day at Ellis Park on Saturday.
01:10:03The trainer Brad Cox is set up to have if all goes well.
01:10:09He's got West Willpower in the Stephen Foster.
01:10:12The American Derby, he's got Wadsworth,
01:10:14who will probably be the favorite.
01:10:15He should have won his last race in the Caesars.
01:10:17Slow pace hurt him.
01:10:19He's got some pace in there to run at this time.
01:10:21In the Fleur de Lis, he's got the favorite.
01:10:23In Amore, probably a pretty solid favorite.
01:10:26In the Edgewood, Heavenly Sunday,
01:10:29or excuse me, in the Teppan Stakes,
01:10:30he's got Heavenly Sunday,
01:10:32who won the Edgewood in her last race.
01:10:34She'll probably be a solid favorite.
01:10:36And in the Wise Dan, he's got Set Piece,
01:10:39who just won the Arlington Stakes at Churchill.
01:10:42The one, two, three finishers of that race
01:10:44are all coming back in the Wise Dan.
01:10:47Set Piece won that race a couple of years ago in 2021.
01:10:50So it's a murderer's row on Saturday at Ellis Park
01:10:53for Brad Cox, even excluding West Willpower.
01:10:56So it'll be interesting to see the kind of day he has.
01:11:00And back to Smile Happy.
01:11:02What on earth will Mattress Mac do
01:11:04if Ron Happy gets his first grade one winner?
01:11:06Free mattresses for a year for everybody in Houston.
01:11:10But yeah, you're right, Randy.
01:11:11Terrific card and a very good race.
01:11:16The TD and Writer's Room is brought to you by XBTV.
01:11:19Talking a lot about Arabian Lion,
01:11:22the Amor Zidane-owned, Bob Baffert-trained three-year-old.
01:11:25Don't forget about the other one, Arabian Knight.
01:11:28He gets the work of the week.
01:11:30It was Saturday, 124.2 for Bob Baffert at Santa Anita.
01:11:35Arabian Knight, an undefeated three-year-old.
01:11:38Remember, he hasn't run
01:11:40since he won the Southwest Stakes at Oakland
01:11:43all the way back on Jan 28,
01:11:44but he's now had five breezes since then
01:11:47and he is nearing his next start.
01:11:50Arabian Knight, reminder, was a $250,000
01:11:53Keeneland September yearling
01:11:54and a $2.3 million OBS two-year-old.
01:12:00Now this message from XBTV.
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01:12:43Experience the power of the partnership.
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01:12:56West Point Thoroughbreds,
01:12:58the gold standard in racing partnerships.
01:13:00Visit westpointtb.com.
01:13:03The TD and Writer's Room also brought to you
01:13:05by West Point Thoroughbreds.
01:13:07Joining a West Point partnership
01:13:09can vault you into the world of instant camaraderie.
01:13:12It was a five-win week for West Point.
01:13:16As previewed here last week,
01:13:18Mount Up, a $400,000 Saratoga yearling buy,
01:13:20made his second lifetime start,
01:13:22a winning one for Todd Pletcher,
01:13:24winning the Thursday opener at Belmont Park.
01:13:27That was back-to-back wins for West Point,
01:13:29who had already won a $100,000
01:13:31Indiana bread steaks race on Wednesday
01:13:34with a horse named Runaway Rojo.
01:13:36And on Saturday,
01:13:38Bourbon Ready won an optional claiming allowance at Laurel.
01:13:42Empire Ride did the same at Belmont.
01:13:44And Unbridled Mary took home the chicken fried steaks
01:13:49at Lone Star Park.
01:13:50And this weekend,
01:13:51Parnak, the June 11th allowance winner at Belmont,
01:13:54heads to the Grade 3 Robert Dick Memorial at Delaware.
01:13:58West Point Thoroughbreds,
01:14:00one of the sponsors of the TDN Writers' Room.
01:14:03And this week's Remy Bloch cartoon is in.
01:14:05Remy's cartoon appears every Friday in the TDN.
01:14:08And he looks at what would happen
01:14:10if racing forays into the world of AI.
01:14:14So check out Remy's cartoon.
01:14:16Well, that's a wrap on this week's show.
01:14:18I want to thank TD Thornton and Randy Moss, my cohorts.
01:14:21I want to thank our co-producers,
01:14:23Katie Petruniak and Anthony LaRocca,
01:14:25our editors, Aliyah LaRocca and Nathan Wilkinson.
01:14:29And as always, our mascot, Lucy.
01:14:32Hi, Lucy.
01:14:32Out cold.
01:14:34Thanks for joining us.
01:14:34We'll talk to you next week.