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00:00My name is Joe Bianca. I'm the associate editor of the Thoroughbred Daily News. I'm also the host
00:05of TDN's Writer's Room podcast. This is the first episode of Better Things with Joe Bianca. In this
00:10show, we'll be having one-on-one in-depth conversations with some of the handicapping
00:14world's brightest minds. We'll ask them about wagering strategies, how they got into the world
00:19of horse racing or even sports betting, and we'll ask them about life as a whole just to get to know
00:24who they are. In this first episode, we talk to David Aragona, who's a very, very sharp horse
00:28racing handicapper. He's the morning line maker for Naira. He's also a host of a podcast for
00:34Timeform US and a handicapper for Timeform US and DRF. We had a great conversation. We're thrilled
00:40to have you watching the show. Maybe a little bit later on, we'll give you a little derby future
00:44wager. Check out our interview with David. I'm so thrilled to welcome my first guest on
00:52this show, Better Things with Joe Bianca. He's a fellow podcast host, but he's so much more than
00:56that. He's the morning line maker for Naira. He's a sharp handicapper for Daily Racing Forum,
01:01Timeform US. David Aragona, thank you so much for coming on.
01:04Yeah, thanks for having me on. Looking forward to having a chat.
01:07Great, great to have you. Honestly, the reason I wanted to have you on first,
01:11because I feel like on the surface level, we have a lot of things in common. We're young,
01:15New York-based guys. We're handicappers. I wouldn't compare myself to you as a handicapper,
01:20but I feel like I don't know that much about you. Let's start with that. Let's start with
01:24how you got into horse racing. What's your origin story for being a horse player?
01:29I mean, I feel like my origin story is pretty typical. I started going to the races with my
01:34dad, the cliche, when I was a very young kid. Actually, my dad and his brother, my uncle,
01:41were both into races since they were in their mid-20s. They both went to college together,
01:46and they had a college roommate that one day asked them if they wanted to go see a horse race.
01:50It happened that the first horse race their college roommate took them to was Secretariat's
01:54Belmont Stakes. That was their introduction to horse racing. Obviously, they were hooked from
01:59that moment. They were really into the races all through the late 70s, early 80s. I started going
02:06with my dad when I was a young kid, growing up in the early to mid-90s. It just kind of stuck.
02:13I learned a lot of the handicapping principles from him and that allure of picking the winners
02:18of races and betting $2 or $4 on a race when I was a kid. It just kind of stuck and really
02:24interested me. I went to college for other things, and I kind of put it on the back burner for a
02:30little while. But it was always a hobby, and it just kind of accidentally turned into my career.
02:36Was there one score that maybe gave you the bug and got you hooked? Because I always tell people
02:39this. I had the trifecta when Funny Side won the Derby. I was 16 years old, and it paid $600,
02:47which to a 16-year-old is all the money you could possibly want. So to me, that whole summer,
02:52I was just like, how do I do that again? Was there one score that you had?
02:56I guess we were both Funny Side stans. I bet him in the initial future wager that year when he was,
03:02I think, 93 to 1. I just loved his New York bread races from when he was a two-year-old.
03:08I bet him in that, and he ended up winning the Derby. So I thought, oh, this is so easy.
03:12But no, yeah, I mean, that definitely got the bug going in me a little bit.
03:19And more so in later years, like multi-race bets, really getting into that. I had a really big
03:24Travers Day, the year that Will Take Charge won. I think I hit the pick four that day,
03:29paid like $6,000 or something. So that kind of really got me more interested in doing more with
03:35the handicapping around that time, like 2012, 2013. And that's when I started blogging about
03:40races a lot. And that kind of led to what I do now. Well, you just led me into my next question,
03:45too, because I feel like you kind of did this the hard way to get to where you are.
03:50For real, because you had your blog. You just kind of organically, I think,
03:54became known for having a good opinion with your Horse to Watch blog and your Twitter account.
03:59That's how I came to know you before you started working for Timeform and DRF. But
04:04you know, did you always know once you started that blog that you wanted to do
04:09this? Or was that just kind of a hobby that turned into a career?
04:13I didn't know I wanted to do exactly what I'm doing now. I never thought I'd be a
04:18morning line maker specifically. But no, coming out of college, I graduated in 2010.
04:26And I just had a couple of those years where I was confused. I didn't know what I wanted to do.
04:30I was just like, in that low period where I was just trying to find something that really like
04:35I was passionate about beyond just a day to day job. So I didn't really have any friends that
04:41were my age that were into horse racing. So you know, I got on Twitter, and I noticed that there
04:45was this whole horse racing community that I might be able to tap into or meet people.
04:50And, you know, I was new to Twitter, I didn't really get it. So I figured, okay, I've got to
04:54like start a blog to like have something to link to so I can get my thoughts out there. And, you
04:58know, I just started doing that, I think in 2012. For like an entire year, I had probably like 10
05:04readers a day, like nobody was paying any attention. And I but I did it like every night
05:09for the New York races, basically a lot very similar to what I do now. And I would just be
05:13disciplined about it and just try to put something out there. Because I figured if I had like enough
05:17of a body of work, and if I did a good job, like maybe finally somebody would notice.
05:22Because I guess like in the back of my mind, I wanted to get more embedded in the racing industry
05:27some now just be doing something I didn't know exactly what I just knew that this was my passion.
05:31And I wanted to get connected with somebody that was as passionate as me that could maybe give me
05:35an opportunity. So I kept doing that. I had this like really big day at the end of my first year
05:42blogging. It was late in the aqueduct me when I think I wrote up three races that day, I typically
05:48like wrote up three or four races every day where I like highlighted horses that I thought were
05:51interesting. And all three of them one, one of them was 50 to one, another one was 75 to one.
05:57And that like got people noticing in my views on the website, like shot up by tenfold after that,
06:02I guess like some word of mouth happened. So yeah, from there, it just kind of kept going on
06:07like an upward trajectory, and got opportunities from a few people in the racing industry. Actually,
06:14one of the first people that reached out to me and like said, you know, I want to get you working in
06:17the racing industry was Andy Serling. He just like, invited me to lunch one day in the city.
06:22And I was like, totally starstruck. Because I mean, I had been following him and like emulating
06:28what I do after his analysis for so many years. And, you know, he told me like, I don't have any
06:33opportunities for you right now. But like, we'll just listen and see if anything opens up, you
06:37know, I have a lot of connections in the industry, and maybe something eventually will happen.
06:41And I'm sure it was indirectly, I don't think Andy directly recommended me. But
06:45Mike Beer used to do the Timeform US analysis back in like 2014, 2015. And when he got hired
06:53by the Daily Racing Forum, that position kind of opened up and Mark Attenberg, who created
06:57Timeform US and is now with the Racing Forum. He gave me the opportunity. I think you'd heard
07:01about me from Andy a little bit. And that's how it happened. A couple of really sharp guys,
07:06obviously, Andy and Mike. Is Andy ever kind of a jerk to you? Because I know Andy, I go way back
07:12with Andy. We kind of go, I go back to him with him since I was a teenager. I don't know if you
07:17know, but Steve Bick has this website Derby Trail. And he was like a forum that a bunch of us were on.
07:23And he kind of took an interest in me early on. But that interest was like,
07:27part praise and part mentorship and part being a jerk and bullying me a little bit.
07:31And he kind of baptized me by fire that way. Was he always nice to you?
07:36Yeah, I guess it kind of goes against his like, image that he puts out there. So maybe I shouldn't
07:40say it. But like, he's actually like a really nice person who's interested in fostering some
07:45talent. Like he really likes to give opportunities to younger people that are passionate about the
07:49industry. And I mean, I feel like I was one of them. So yeah, that's, I mean, that's something
07:55that I feel like a lot of people aren't aware about him. Because he kind of has that curmudgeonly
07:59persona on Twitter and all the analysis he does. But
08:02Totally, he's the curmudgeon of the heart of gold. That's like, he's that stereotypical type
08:06character. You mentioned, you don't really have that many friends who watch racing or into racing.
08:11I think that's kind of a shared issue that we have as young handicappers. Like none of my friends
08:18watch racing. And I know it's like, it's so old timey, where you even tell somebody,
08:22you're like, I'm into horse racing. They're like, what? That's still a thing?
08:26Yeah.
08:27So like, have you ever even tried to get some of your friends into racing? Have you taken
08:31them to the track? What's that experience been for you?
08:35Oh, yeah. When I was, I mean, going all the way back when I was like 10 years old,
08:39I had a racing birthday party where all my friends came to the Meadowlands.
08:42My dad had to like get all the parents to sign permission slips that they were okay with going
08:46into like a wagering environment. And if he wanted to know if it was okay, if you like,
08:49they brought $20, and they could all bet some money on the races. So yeah, that didn't really
08:54stick with them, though. I think they didn't quite get it. But no, like in later years,
08:59I've taken friends to the races different times. And there have been positive experiences,
09:05some less so. I mean, it's often comes down to whether or not you win money if you're new at
09:10the racetrack. I mean, that can kind of determine if you have a good time or a bad time. But no,
09:15like I know a few people that are my age that have been at least gotten more curious about it
09:20just through knowing me and talking to me.
09:22I always tell people like if you if you want to experience racing at its best to go to Saratoga,
09:27you know, because people will people will expect express like an initial interest to me and say,
09:30like, when you're going out to Belmont, like take me with you. And I'm like, I don't know that you
09:34want to come out to Belmont or aqueduct like it's and be there with 300 people in the entire
09:39facility. If you want to go to somewhere where it's really lively, and there's a racing culture,
09:43then come to Saratoga. But it's hard. It's hard to get people to come that three,
09:46three and a half hour trip from the city. So are you from the city initially?
09:51I'm actually from northern New Jersey, like 1015 miles outside of New York City. So I was
09:56always kind of in the tri state area growing up.
09:58Gotcha. Did you go to college in the city?
10:01Yeah, I went to NYU for undergrad. I only did undergrad. So yeah.
10:06Tip my cap to you, sir. It's impressive to be an NYU grad in any way. So yes, so is like you
10:14think your future is always going to be a New York based horse racing guy? Or do you have like
10:18other things that you would want to do in this game or even outside of the game?
10:22Yeah, I don't know for sure. I mean, I'm kind of married to doing the New York
10:25stuff right now with the morning line gig, I kind of it takes up so much of my time,
10:29I don't really have the option to spend that much time looking at other tracks. I mean,
10:32I do a little bit for some of the stuff I have to the videos I have to do for DRF and things like
10:36that. But I have to kind of be very New York focused. It's weird. Like, when I first started
10:42handicapping New York racing, it felt easier. It felt like the money was not as smart as it is
10:50today. And I feel like I don't want to give like people like me too much credit. But I mean,
10:56I think I feel like there are a lot of really astute handicappers that write about New York
11:01racing. And it just feels like the play there is a lot more sophisticated than it is on other
11:07circuits. It's really hard to find value in New York. And I just just for me personally,
11:11handicapping the races, it's really a lot harder to find opportunities that match your opinions,
11:17or at least the opinions that I put out there publicly. It's really difficult to find value
11:22here. So I do sometimes think like, would it be easier if I just kind of like totally switch
11:26things up and try it on a different circuit? I mean, I'd like to do the experiment at some point.
11:29But I don't know if it's gonna happen right now. I don't think Mahoning Valley
11:33handicapper David Aragon has quite the same ring to it.
11:38Maybe not. I don't know. I'm gonna make that a thing.
11:40The morning line thing is really interesting, I think, because you kind of have to separate
11:44your own opinion from what you think the public is going to do. Like, is that is that hard for you?
11:48Like, are you able to separate those two things?
11:52When I first started doing it, I thought it would be harder than it actually was.
11:56But it really is kind of like just turning off that side of your brain and like saying, OK,
12:01my opinions don't really matter. It's just like,
12:05basically an exercise in paying attention to what happens on the tote board.
12:10And the biggest homework that I did, and I still do for making the morning line,
12:14is just kind of like sitting in front of a TV and watching the tote action and taking
12:18note of which horses take money, which horses don't. What was I right about? What was I wrong
12:21about? Because a lot of the times the trends that you see on the tote board and the wagering,
12:27it doesn't really follow things that you think should be moving the money that much.
12:31But there are certain angles that a lot of people do put a lot of faith in
12:35that you do have to be aware of. So for me, I kind of have this repository of all these angles
12:40that like a kind of in a hierarchy in my head. And when I go through the races, you see which
12:44ones apply and you just try to do your best to look at it through this the eye of like the public
12:50in quotation marks. And then once I'm done, I'll go back and see what my opinions are.
12:55But I do try to make them two completely separate endeavors.
12:58You know, you mentioned all the sharp money, the smart money that's in New York. I
13:02tend to agree with you. I think in general, it's very hard, you know, but then you have the catch
13:0622 of like if you go to another pool, you play Turf Paradise, make $100 win bet, you move the
13:12pool. So that's a little bit of an issue, too. But like it's been it's been a big discussion
13:18and debate around the computer wagers. And I think Naira has done a very good job and kind
13:23of limiting them in certain pools. Do you think that that's something that needs to happen more
13:28across the board to make it fairer for the for the common horse player?
13:33For sure. I mean, there are kind of two components to that. I mean,
13:36the first is just the general presence of the CAW wager, which I feel like it's not going
13:42anywhere right now. And when Naira did it, it doesn't completely solve the problem. I know
13:46that they have probably some more steps planned down the line to address it. But what they did
13:50with what you're referencing, like taking the CAW wagering out of the wind pool, it does solve that
13:55immediate problem of appearances where a horse's odds are going to drop in half in the middle of a
14:00race. Obviously, it's not because money is being bet during the race, but it's because so much of
14:06the play comes in in the final seconds that you do have that slight delay and the wagering,
14:10the wind wagering, it does really change at a lot of tracks. And I feel like Naira has solved that
14:15problem. And it can give you a little bit more confidence betting into the wind pool because
14:18you know, you're going to be locked into a certain price with a little more confidence
14:22than you do in some other circuits. But in a lot of the other pools, that money is still there.
14:27And it's difficult to beat. I mean, it's just like another layer on top of the takeout that's
14:33working against the average player. Well, that's such a catch-22 for the tracks too, because they
14:37really want that money. Like they'd be totally ironic to like turn aside these millions of
14:41dollars and handle. But at the same time, you're going to drive away a lot of the meat and potatoes
14:45horse players if you don't do that, you know? Yeah. And it's like walking this fine line between
14:50what people actually care about, because I feel like the average player, they're not so much aware
14:54of why the odds are changing. They just know it's happening. And they don't necessarily know that
14:59they're losing X amount of dollars over this period of time, because that money's in the pool,
15:05because basically a certain segment of the population is locked into, you know, a certain ROI,
15:12it's going to affect how you do over time. I feel like there's not a widespread understanding of
15:16that, but there is that immediate understanding that, okay, I could have more confidence playing
15:21in this one pool because it's not happening anymore. I got to ask you about this thing that
15:25happened. I don't know if you played on Sunday at Tampa, they had to pick five carry over. I'm sure
15:29you heard about it on racing as a race on Twitter. Yeah. Yeah. As a racing Twitter stalwart. Now I'm
15:35going to call you that. Why is it so hard for these tracks to get this kind of stuff? I'm not
15:40even get it right. Just don't get it horrendously wrong to the point where people feel slapped in
15:45the face. What is the deal with that kind of thing? And just for anybody who doesn't know,
15:50the deal was there was a big pick five carry over at Tampa Bay Downs right before the start of the
15:55pick five. They took the remaining races on the day off the turf. There were three turf races left.
16:00So basically, just like disregarded everybody's handicapping and we're scratching horses as the
16:06horses were loading into the gate for the fifth race. Like, why is this so hard not to screw up,
16:10David? It's it's really frustrating. I do honestly feel like a lot of times it's not
16:18something nefarious going on. And it's just a communication break. It's a communication breakdown
16:22of the racetracks. A lot of times the arms of the racetrack that make that decision are not
16:30necessarily thinking about the betting side of it. And that's a real problem. And I don't know.
16:34How is that low? I don't I don't know if it's like a simple training that solves that or what,
16:42but it feels like that has to be drilled into the minds of so many people that work in this
16:46industry that like, that's the primary concern, giving the people that bet on your sport,
16:50the confidence that they have a fair chance. And when something like that happens,
16:54it does make people feel whether rightly or wrongly, like the track is actively working
16:59against them. And you don't want to leave your customers feeling that way. I know what that the
17:04specific situation, I don't know exactly what was going on with the weather. I wasn't following
17:07Tampa Bay Downs that day. I do know sometimes there is difficulty when racers are taken off
17:11the turf and the timing of things. And if there's forecasted rain later in the day,
17:16you know, some tracks want to preserve the rater and product and other pools and stuff like that.
17:20So I don't know the exact specifics of the Tampa situation. I'm not speaking to that.
17:25But it does feel like you have to come into that decision making process
17:29with the betters in mind or else you're not doing your customers a favor.
17:33And it was like I honestly was watching it. I didn't see a drop of rain all day. It might
17:37have been one of those things where the jockeys rode an earlier turf race and were like, there's
17:41lumps in the turf course or whatever and complain. But either way, worst case scenario, you got to
17:46extend the post time 20, 30 minutes, like give people a chance. And I think that this is especially
17:53bad when it comes to the increased availability of sports wagering. I think it's a big, big problem
18:00because, you know, a lot of people talk about sports wagering being a threat to horse racing,
18:05wagering. I don't think it's necessarily the new better that's going to go to sports betting
18:10instead of racing. I think it's the seasoned horse player that's going to get fed up with
18:14stuff like that and is going to move to play something else. And I personally like I told
18:19the story a couple of weeks ago. I'm sure this has happened to you. You ever been live to a single
18:24in the pick five and the horse is like six to five on a David Aragon morning line and opens
18:28at like three to one and you're like, I have absolutely no chance. That ever happened to you?
18:33Oh, all the time.
18:35Okay. So that happened and the horse didn't run a step and I closed my account and I bet sports the
18:40rest of the day. So I think, you know, that wasn't anything like the Tampa thing. That wasn't just
18:43incompetence or nefariousness or anything. It's just one of those things that happens as a horse
18:47player where you feel like people know what's going to happen before the race and you don't.
18:52I wonder what your thoughts are that. Do you bet sports at all?
18:56No, I'm one of these people that's like very focused on horse racing.
19:01That's my sport. I like some other Olympic sports. We can talk about that. Maybe another time. But
19:07I saw you tweeting about the figure skating last night.
19:09Yeah, I'm like a little bit of a figure skating nerd. But so the Olympics are kind of exciting
19:15time for me. But no, like team sports and stuff like that. I really don't follow it. It's not
19:19my forte.
19:20Gotcha. Yeah. So did you ever do you ever skate or is it something you just enjoyed watching?
19:24No, my mom was really into watching skating when I was a kid. She would like just sit in
19:29front of the TV and like bawl her eyes out whenever she saw Michelle Kwan. So I kind of
19:32like grew up watching that. And I had some friends in college, one of them was into skating and
19:37a couple like to watch it. So I don't know, it just was like something that kind of stuck.
19:41And they have like a new scoring system where it's like really math based. And it kind of
19:45fascinates me a little bit. So I come at it from that perspective. It's also a sport that's like
19:50rife with problems and like political upheaval. So it's a little refreshing to take a break from
19:56racing and go to that at times. But yeah, no, that's that's that's my story.
20:01Racing is the sport that's rife with problems. I was like, what are these figures skating
20:04controversy that I haven't heard about? Nathan Chen was incredible last night. That was that
20:11was great. Redemption in the Olympics. So let's let's talk a little bit about the problems and
20:17raising. I don't want to focus on it too much. Sure. But, you know, we got the first of all,
20:22I think the the disintegration of the agreement between Heise and USADA, I thought was a major,
20:28major blow in terms of racing, cleaning itself up and getting all of its drug enforcement,
20:33drug policy under one roof. What was what was your reaction to that when you heard that news?
20:37Yeah, I watched part of your writer's room with Travis Teigart. And what was her name again?
20:44That's her. Yeah. And that was so fascinating. And it kind of gave me some hope at that point
20:50in time. And I feel like the subsequent news about the communications breaking down,
20:54it's a little it's it's definitely discouraging. Yeah, I mean, I don't I don't know exactly where
21:01this is going. I'm hopeful that there's going to be some kind of agreement reached or some
21:06alternate solution, because it does feel like that was going down a path that racing really
21:12needs to address the uniform rules, certainly, and the testing component, especially. Yeah,
21:20I mean, you probably have better insight into what's what you think might happen with that.
21:25It's not something like a beat that I'm following every day. But it's, it's something that's so
21:31long overdue in racing, because I mean, not only do you have the inconsistencies from state to
21:35state, you just have this general lack of transparency. And so many of these racing
21:40commissions have just like gotten into this habit of being as secretive as possible,
21:46dragging their feet, you never know, like, if anything's actually going to happen,
21:50if like a medication positives ever going to be reported, you're referring to something specific,
21:55but I can't imagine what it is. I mean, I only because it's happened recently. But I mean,
22:00you can go back 510 years. And like, it's the same thing that's been happening forever. I think it's
22:04probably, there's probably a little more scrutiny applied to it now, because there's been such high
22:08profile cases in the past couple of years. But this kind of thing has always been happening.
22:13So, I mean, things do need to change, but you really do need like, somebody to step in and make
22:19some, like, drastic changes. And it just feels like Hyza opened the door for that. But racing
22:25still needs to walk through it. That's the whole thing. And that's,
22:28you know, I'm not saying that this this was going to be a perfect solution or that it was going to
22:32be without issues. I know there were a lot of there were a lot of concerns about the cost and
22:36how that was going to be distributed throughout the industry, which I think is legitimate.
22:39But, you know, you know what a godsend it is that USADA is even interested in getting involved
22:45in a Mickey Mouse sport like ours. You know what I mean? That's just not the kind of thing
22:49that you would expect an industry with such or like an organization with such credibility
22:54to want to get involved in in the first place. And I think people just don't realize kind of
22:57what an opportunity that is. And I wonder if you feel this way. But my feeling is that it's just
23:02I think there are too many self-interested people that, you know, it's the current status
23:07quo is working out for them individually and they just can't see the forest for the trees.
23:12And they don't they don't they don't think of being stewards of the game and, you know,
23:16the greater health of the sport. How would you feel about that?
23:19I mean, like another example of that is like this thing that the Jockey Club
23:23tried to do with the stallion cap and like all these farms are like suing over it. I mean, it's
23:28it's anything that like the industry tries to do together in the best interest of the game.
23:34It's like people, you know, the powerful players in this sport can't stop themselves from putting
23:39their own self-interest ahead of the future of the sport. And especially for something like a
23:43young person like me and I'm sure like you who works in this sport, it's just so discouraging
23:48to keep seeing it happen over and over again. And, you know, with the medication side of things,
23:52it's, you know, what's going on with Baffert, obviously, is, you know, it's a big problem.
24:00I feel like a lot of people come at it from the wrong angle by just, you know,
24:05viewing the specific infractions around Medina Spirit and the other horses that, you know,
24:09have come up positive over the past few years is like, you know, the entire picture of what's
24:14going on in horse racing when it's just like the tip of the iceberg. And, you know, the
24:19overage of beta methadone is like, that's not the medication you should be concerned about.
24:24If you're concerned about doping and horse racing, it's the stuff that nobody knows about. And if
24:29you watched again, I, you know, I saw Travis talking about this on the interview you did with
24:34him. I mean, if you followed like track and field or other sports where doping is a huge issue,
24:41you know, you know that there are biological, I don't know if medications is the right word,
24:49that just are untestable, and they stay in people's systems for a long time. And I mean,
24:55it only stands to reason that that kind of stuff, it's I mean, it's been in other sports for so
24:58long, it only stands to reason that it's made it into horse racing. I don't know what's how
25:03sophisticated of a level. But I mean, I don't feel like there's a big awareness or even a big
25:09understanding that that's a frontier that needs to be come at. So yeah, I don't know. I mean,
25:18I'm like throwing out a lot of like different loose ends here. But I don't know. It just feels
25:22like there's such a big obstacle to making progress on this front that it often feels
25:27too overwhelming. Well, and you brought up the beta methadone thing. I think it's one of those
25:31things that kind of evens out, because I don't think the beta methadone thing is a, I don't
25:35think that's why Medina Spirit won the derby, obviously. I mean, the stuff that they're
25:39testing for, I think Bob Maffer might be right, actually, that the thresholds are a little too
25:43sensitive for these tests. And that gets the big news. But the stuff that they're not testing
25:48that they can't test for yet that people are using and getting away with, that doesn't make
25:52news. But that's the problem. So I think even if the smaller drugs get the big headlines,
25:59there should be a headline. There should be a headline in racing that we have a drug problem
26:02that we can't get under control. Yeah. I mean, like if you handicap the races and bet the races,
26:09you see it every day, these gigantic form reversals, especially in the claiming races
26:13that are just unexplainable. And yet, day after day, the tests come back clean, or so we're told
26:18the tests come back clean. This is not reported. But I mean, a lot of that is due to the fact that
26:22you can't test for these things. I mean, the federal indictments from 2020. I mean, we always
26:26go back to that. But those were substances that those horses never tested positive for. I don't
26:31think we even still know how to test for those substances. We just know that they were medications
26:36that were being administered. And you don't know how widespread that is. It's, that's the thing
26:42that like, I'm really concerned about. And when I see odd things happening in racing, my mind keeps
26:46going back to that kind of stuff. And just to like, cycle back to the Baffert thing for a minute, I
26:51don't want to be misunderstood. I'm not defending Baffert in saying that, like, I don't care about
26:56the beta methadone thing that much. I mean, the thing that gets me most upset about the Baffert
27:00situation, it's just going back to somebody powerful in the sport that doesn't have the
27:05best interests of the future of the sport in mind. Baffert's entire media tour afterwards,
27:10his recklessness with fighting all of these things. I mean,
27:14David, it's cancel culture. That's the thing. That's getting rid of Bob Baffert. Totally.
27:19No, what was reported in that Washington Post article that I'm sure most people read that
27:23Baffert will never ever, ever accept a suspension and he will spend as much money as he can possibly
27:29on legal fees to get around a suspension. I mean, just that refusal to accept responsibility.
27:35I think that's why Bob Baffert needs to be. I don't know. I'm not the stewards. I don't get
27:42to make these decisions. I'm not the racing commission, but something needs to be some
27:46penalty needs to be levied against Bob Baffert for what he's done to racing in the past couple
27:50of years. That's my it's not about this one thing. It's the totality of his record. He's
27:55had an opportunity to play by the rules. And whether you want to chalk it up to sloppiness
28:01or nefariousness, whatever, it's just there's been chance after chance to get it right. And he
28:06hasn't been able to do that. But again, it all goes back to not having the right cops on the beat.
28:11You know, it's just we're kind of left up to the self-regulation standard that just does not work
28:18for this sport with 33 different racing jurisdictions. And it's yeah. First of all,
28:23just the fact that he broke that news. He broke the news of the truck loss.
28:28Well, it's like it itself was just like something you could never imagine in any other sport. Who
28:33knows what I've heard about it otherwise. Right. Well, because you can see what's going on with
28:38the KHRC with the with the hearing or not hear non-hearing or. Yeah. So we don't we don't have
28:45the right cops on the beat. So that's the root of all these problems. Right. Totally. Yeah.
28:52Yeah. You know, like I don't want to keep harping on the same thing forever, but like it's yeah,
28:55it's it's just really frustrating. And I don't feel like I have the answers. I feel like there
29:02was, you know, things were going in a direction that seemed somewhat hopeful with Haiza being
29:07implemented. And now now it seems very uncertain. And, you know, just the uniform medication rules
29:14and people knowing that they had to follow a specific set of guidelines. I feel like that
29:20could go such a long way. I mean, the whole testing component, it's very it's very difficult
29:24to implement that. I'm sure there are monetary concerns and a lot of racing circuits. But having
29:29those uniform rules in place, it would be such a right step in a good step in the right direction.
29:34You just hope we can get there. Yeah. And it's just it's one of those things where
29:38you want to you want to shake people up. You like do not see what the rest of the public
29:43sees, you know, right now, because it's just so easy to be. It's like a very insular game.
29:48You know what I'm saying? Totally. There are just so many people that are like, well,
29:51all my friends are in racing and everyone says it's going great. You know, it's just
29:55so easy. But it's like you and I don't really have racing friends outside of the ones we've
30:00made through our jobs. You know, it's easier to see what regular the layman thinks about racing.
30:07And it's unfortunate. You're passionate about the sport, which we are. You know, it just it
30:11becomes one of those things where it's like you can't save a sport that does not want to save
30:16itself a little bit. You know, you can only do so much. And we try on the writers room,
30:20like we try to bring these issues to light. And I think that's one of the reasons, honestly,
30:23the show has become popular is that, you know, there aren't that many people talking about these
30:27things in racing. I think that there is an appetite for that kind of thing. But yeah,
30:31like so just like what's a broad sense that you get from people outside of racing? What do they
30:38think? Obviously, when the Kentucky Derby positive came out last year, everybody who knew that I
30:45worked in racing, like that's the first thing they ask about. The same thing happened with
30:50Medina Spirits Deaf at the end of last year, like it. That was the story that people were aware of.
30:56And it's it gets really frustrating when people's only awareness of your profession is like the
31:04most sordid stuff that comes out into the mainstream. You know, the Bob Baffert SNL skits.
31:09I mean, you could just keep going backwards in time. And it's just like,
31:13which was absolutely great. It was funny, but like, but it was great.
31:16But like, you almost weren't, you know, at least me personally, like I wasn't ready to
31:20laugh at it at that time because it just always like it was like a fresh wound that gets keep
31:24getting reopened. And like, you could just keep going back through like the past year,
31:28and it's like a greatest hits list of just negative stories about racing. And like,
31:32I'm not one of these people that thinks like, you have to like, dig up positive stories to
31:37counteract the negative narrative. Like, it's not that's not what it's about. Like all these
31:41negative stories are coming out because there are so many problems. And to make positive stories,
31:46the problems need to be addressed. You shouldn't sweep them under the rug to kind of like
31:51throw a party on top of it. That's not how you how you fix horse racing.
31:56But that's another reason that we're kind of screwed by not having a central governing body
32:01or even like a central public relations unit of some sort, because I think there are positive
32:08stories, handle is up, which I want to ask you about. breakdowns overall are down in the last
32:1310 years, if you look at the jockey club study. So I think that there are positive stories that
32:17you can push back with. But you need that that body to push back, you need someone that you
32:22need to hire some fancy pants PR firm to do your PR. Like if you're the NTRA, you know what I mean?
32:27We had Tom Rooney was the new NTRA chief on our show. And I asked him that I was like,
32:32can you do anything to push back on these negative narratives? And he said yes,
32:36and we'll see how that goes. But that's another thing where it's a real deficit for racing not to
32:40have that that central voice, don't you think? Totally like when some when a real negative
32:46story like that breaks out into the mainstream, it's like nobody knows who to turn to. I mean,
32:51there are a few respected journalists and writers, but like beyond that, like there's nobody that's
32:55in that high position of authority nationally, that can come out and say something. It's just
33:01like this chorus of people that gets really muddled, and they end up bickering with each
33:06other. And then it just doesn't like nothing gets solved. Coming out in the mainstream media. I mean,
33:12I, I have like one person who's close to me who's kind of been getting more interested in horse
33:16racing recently. And he's getting a little bit into the betting and handicapping side of it.
33:21And like, he's just gotten introduced to racing really in the past year or so, and got into it
33:26way more during the pandemic when like there was not a whole lot else to do. And he's he'll just
33:30say to me, like every so often, like, how do you deal with like all these negative stories that
33:34keep coming out all the time? Like, it just seems like there's nothing ever positive coming out of
33:38your industry. Like it just must get so frustrating. And it's true, it does.
33:42But we're going to talk about the rising handle, because that is a positive story.
33:46There's been a little bit of debate about, you know, how much of that is the computer wagers,
33:50and how much of that was just a function of the COVID boom, where everybody was home all the time.
33:55What are your feelings? Like, just, I know that you're not like privy to the data necessarily,
33:59but what's your general feeling about, you know, where that handle increases coming from?
34:05I mean, I've seen a few smarter people than me, like talk about this on online and stuff like
34:10that. And I mean, a couple of the points that caught my eye, or one of the things you mentioned,
34:14I mean, just the phenomenon of the pandemic. And it's not it wasn't just during the stay at home
34:19period. Even today, there's still a lot of people that are choosing to work from home when they
34:23didn't before feel like I'm one of them. I almost always work from home these days, I used to go to
34:28the track so much more, and I don't anymore. It's just, it's just kind of gotten comfortable doing
34:32what I did for the past year. But I mean, I'm not like a typical case of that there are a lot of
34:36people that used to work in an office that now just kind of transition to work from home because
34:40they like it better. And it does give a lot more freedom. And I'm sure people can follow the races
34:44a lot more. I've seen even people that I follow on Twitter, who used to take the week off now
34:49tweeting about the races on a Wednesday. I mean, it's I'm sure they're working, but like they're
34:53also following that. So I, I do think that the stay at home component definitely has to have had
35:00an impact on handle. As far as the CAW money goes, I don't really know. I mean, it's, it's always been
35:07mysterious. Does it really stand to reason that there would have been a sharp uptick in CAW money
35:13over the past year? What will be the reasons for that? I don't know that it seems like it should
35:18be fairly constant over time. Like that's been really well honed at this point, or you would
35:22think it has been down with the Naira, you know, restrictions, right? That too. I mean, there are,
35:28there are more reasons why it should be going down and going up. So yeah, I do feel like something
35:34else is going on. I don't know what all the factors are. I'm sure it is a multi-factor
35:39explanation. But the world has changed a lot in the past couple of years. So I guess it stands
35:44to reason that the way people's, the way people behave with their money, that could change too.
35:50Yeah. And that's, that's, I think that's like something we're really holding on to is these
35:53positive handle numbers in the last year. So we'll see what happens this year as like,
35:56maybe we, we trans, we like transition back to normal. I also wanted to ask, have you ever,
36:02you ever done a handicapping contest? Has that ever been an interest of yours?
36:06You know, it never really, I tried it like a, maybe 10 years ago. It never really caught on
36:12with me though. I mean, it's a completely different kind of strategy than betting
36:16paramutually. I mean, obviously there's a paramutual component to that, but it's a very,
36:22it's, it's a different kind of strategy to approaching the races. It's way more,
36:26or at least from my perspective, it's way more about betting in a way to beat other people than
36:31about the handicapping side of it. Betting, you know, offensively or defensively that kind of
36:38thing. And, and it's so much about kind of being right on the day, as opposed to being right over
36:43a period of time, like trying to bang out that decent ROI, which is what I get so focused on.
36:48Maybe it's not that. It's just a different way of looking at the races. I mean, I take my hat
36:53off to people that are really interested in that. That's awesome. I mean, another kind of pathway
37:00that people can get interested in horse racing. I mean, it's great for us. It's just, it's never
37:04been something that, you know, I've been itching to do, but who knows, maybe I'll learn more about
37:09it in the future. And that would change. Maybe I'll hook up with somebody that like convinces
37:13me otherwise, but it's not something that I've, I've done a lot of in the past five, six years.
37:18Well, it's also one of those things where, I don't know, maybe I'm just not a good enough
37:21handicapper, but you really got to stick with it. You know, it's just, unless you can qualify on
37:25like your first try, you really got to stick with it like day after day. But you mentioned the ROI
37:30thing, like how you seem like a very smart math oriented guy, just from talking to you,
37:34how much do you keep track of that for yourself? Like whether it's your public plays or whether
37:38it's your, just your day-to-day individual plays, how much do you keep tabs on that?
37:43Oh, I mean, I keep track of all of it. I mean, to different extents, I mean, with like the public
37:48stuff, I track it. Sometimes I hate doing it because it's going down the tubes. I mean,
37:52sometimes, sometimes it's a pleasure. It depends on how your meat's going. But no, I mean,
37:58I always track it and try to see where I'm going wrong. Sometimes just go through a bad streak and
38:05you have to suffer that. But I try to keep on top of the public plays. It is really hard to be a
38:11public handicapper and crank out a positive ROI consistently. You know, putting out those picks
38:1624 hours ahead of time, especially on a circuit like New York, it's, the money is just too smart
38:21for that to work really well over the long period, over a long term. But I do like to think that the
38:27insights that I put out and the picks that I give, they help people in other pools, multi-race
38:32wagers, that kind of thing. It just makes people think about the races in a different way,
38:35gives people angles to use. So I hope it's helpful. But yeah, cranking out that positive
38:41win ROI is really difficult. And the personal, like betting side of things, I think is essential
38:46to keep track of your ROI and see how you're doing, what kind of tracks, which tracks you do
38:50well at, what kind of wagers, that sort of thing. Yeah. And I'm not sucking up to you just because
38:55you came on this show. I think you have one of the sharpest opinions out there and you're one
38:58of those guys that when you have a highlight horse, I definitely take notice. So what's a
39:04typical day for you wagering-wise? I'm assuming you're gravitating towards pick fives because
39:10those are the best value in terms of takeout. But do you do win bets? Do you do intra-race
39:15wagering? What's a typical day for you? To be honest, this is a pretty quiet time of year for
39:21me. Aqueduct is a really tough meet to bet. A lot of the race cards are pretty thin. It's kind
39:30of hard for me to find stuff to write about at times because there's just not a whole lot going
39:34on. But when racing cranks up at other times of the year, yeah, I like to diversify, pick fives,
39:42pick fours. I'm not really much of a pick six player, never happened. I did hit a nice one
39:47years ago at Saratoga, but it hasn't worked out in the long term. But yeah, it really, for me,
39:53depends on what my handicapping opinions are and where I think the value lies. I don't necessarily
39:59like to come into something saying, I'm going to bet the pick five today. I like to look at the
40:03race card and say, okay, my opinions are in races X, Y, and Z. How can I hook those up? Or which
40:10horses do I like? So what are the best bets to use in these situations to capitalize on my opinions?
40:15Not so much trying to retrofit my opinions to a specific...
40:19That's so smart. That's one of my big problems is I try to hammer out a pick five play just
40:24because I feel like it's such a... Relatively speaking, it's such good value because you can
40:28always find 15% takeout. But yeah, I think that's one of the issues I have is putting in hundreds of
40:34dollars into a pick five play because I'm like, well, this is the best value. But you really...
40:38And I think that's one of the problems that's been born out of the way racing is covered on
40:43TV. A lot of times you see... I mean, not to pick on one specific network that's not looking to do,
40:47but there's this always this conversation about like, what's your pick five ticket? What's your
40:51pick six ticket? Who are you singling? And I feel like sometimes that leads people down the path of
40:55thinking like, I have to be this kind of player to make money. And it's not the case. I mean,
40:59you should do what suits you. You should look at what you've been successful at and build your
41:03strategy on that. Don't have to come into a day thinking I'm going to play the pick five at this
41:09specific track because everybody's talking about it. If your opinions don't really line up that
41:14way, find something else to play. You'll probably do better. Yeah. And it kind of becomes a little
41:18bit of an obsession where it's like these things that you can get like 300 to one odds on if you
41:22hit a good pick five. But it's really more about cranking out a positive ROI, like you say.
41:27And also like, this might be my last question for you. We'll see where it goes. But what's
41:32like a typical day for you outside of racing? Are you in Queens? Is that where you live?
41:36I'm in Queens, yeah.
41:37Queens. What's a typical day for you? Do you like to go out a little bit or are you just
41:42really mostly staying at home studying the horses?
41:46It depends on the day of the week. From like Wednesday to Friday, sometimes I barely leave
41:50the apartment because there are so many deadlines to hit. That's like the busy time to get all that
41:54stuff out before the weekend. But yeah, my typical day for me is I've got my morning line deadline in
42:01the morning. I try to like, I'm a bit of a night owl, so I'll stay up late trying to do all that
42:05work going through the races before the deadline the next day. But I will try to get some outside
42:12time when I can. Actually, I've never been like that much of a gym rat or anything like that.
42:17But lately, I've been trying to take up running and do a lot more like running outdoors even in
42:22the wintertime. I actually signed up for my first ever half marathon in a few months.
42:28It's in April actually at Keeneland. So I'll be taking a trip to Kentucky.
42:33We're actually going to be... The writers room is going to be at Keeneland in April as well.
42:36We're going to do a live show. Awesome.
42:38Yeah. Sorry, go ahead.
42:40Go ahead. That's on the horizon for me.
42:44My friend did the New York City marathon recently and it made me feel like a total schlub.
42:48So thanks for that.
42:50I mean, I can't say that I like it, but it gets me outside. It does kind of like give you some
42:56time to decompress mentally and put you in a better mood. So I mean, there are some benefits
43:00to it, but it's not always fun while you're doing it.
43:03No. Running is very monotonous to me. And the only reason... This is one of the things that
43:08actually was born out of the pandemic was I got a Peloton. And it's just one of the things that
43:13it's like... Something about the music, it keeps you focused. And even then, sometimes it's hard
43:18to walk the 10 feet in my apartment over to the Peloton. It's like the longest 10 feet of my life.
43:24I know.
43:24But it's having that little slice of accomplishment during the day,
43:28I think that really helps mentally as much as physically.
43:32Yeah. I think especially with racing and the kind of job that I have, it's important to take some
43:37time to just mentally decompress because you can get so immersed in horse racing. There's always
43:44something going on. And whether it's the wagering side where you're always chasing the next thing,
43:50or just the work that I have to do and all the deadlines I have to hit, there's always something
43:56to do. Unless I take vacation time and actually completely shut my laptop and turn it off,
44:01there's always something that you can get that can catch your fancy.
44:05So I think it is important every week at a specific time or each day to just take some
44:11time for yourself to do a sanity check. Especially in the summer during the Saratoga meet when there
44:20are so many deadlines and I'm just immersed in it all day long. It can be tough and it can really
44:25wear you down and you have to stay on top of that. Yeah. Well, especially for a guy like you,
44:28I think, who wears a lot of different hats for sure in this business. I'm going to sound like
44:33a stalker right now, but I felt like you tweeted a while ago about getting a dog maybe. Was that
44:38a thing that happened? I'm trying to think if I tweeted a dog picture. No, I don't think so.
44:46I do not have a dog. I don't. I was going to use another excuse to show you my dogs.
44:52But yeah, I love dogs. I might have tweeted a picture of my dad's dogs. Maybe I was taking
44:56them on a walk. I forget, but yeah. So that's all I got, David. This was better than I could
45:03ever imagine, man. This was awesome. I enjoyed this. Yeah. I would love to do this again or
45:08maybe come on your show. You can come on the writer's room. You're a guy that I honestly
45:12really do respect in the business and I really appreciate the time and all the insights as well.
45:19No, I mean, I'd love to read your guys' stuff. You cover a lot of the beats in racing that I
45:23think a lot of the other papers and journalists don't necessarily touch upon because there's so
45:30much else going on, so much to cover in racing. I appreciate the work that you guys do.
45:36And the idea for this show too is to eventually have it be in person. So maybe up at Saratoga
45:42or something, we can go to a bar or something and just kind of do this, but this is perfect.
45:49So thank you once again to David Aragona for coming on the show. He was better than I ever
45:54could have imagined. I always wanted to talk to him and get to know him. And he was a terrific
45:58interview. Obviously a really smart guy. I look forward to talking to him again in the future.
46:03I promised the Kentucky Derby Future Wager bet. Pool three of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager
46:09opens this weekend. I'll start with the caveat that I don't normally love giving out Derby Future
46:13Bets because there's such a relatively high likelihood that the horse won't even make it
46:17to the starting gate to begin with. But if you're going to make one, you want a horse that you think
46:21will be either similar or hopefully better odds in the future wager than on Derby Day if they do
46:27make it to the starting gate. And I'm going to go with a bomb. I'm going to go with Command
46:31Performance for Todd Pletcher. He's an interesting horse because he still hasn't broken his maiden.
46:36He's run four times. Hasn't won a race. But he's run big in a couple of big grade one races. He
46:41was second in the Champagne as a two-year-old. He was fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
46:45And he hasn't started yet as a three-year-old. So he's kind of a forgotten horse at this point,
46:50I think. He's going to be a huge price. He's going to be overlooked in the future bet. 50,
46:5460, maybe even 70 to 1. Those are the horses you're really trying to bet because if they do
46:59jump up and run big in a prep race, which I expect him to do somewhere between now and Derby Day,
47:04he's probably going to be more in the 30 to 41 range or maybe even lower than that if he wins
47:08one of these races. He's by Union Rags. Union Rags won the mile-and-a-half Belmont. So I think
47:13he's going to get better as the distances get longer as well. He obviously has a tremendous
47:18Hall of Fame trainer in Todd Pletcher. And I think he's just going to be one of the forgotten horses
47:22on this Derby trail until he runs big in one of the preps. So I like Command Performance.
47:2650 to 1 or better for sure in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. And thank you so much for watching
47:31the first episode of Better Things with Joe Bianca. Thank you so much to David Aragona
47:36for joining us. We'll see you next time.