Monday evening forecast 30/10/23
30 October - National weather forecast presented by Alex Burkill.
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00:00Hello, good evening. Whilst it is going to be a very wet night for Northern Ireland,
00:04elsewhere in the UK our attention is already turning to Storm Ciarán which is going to
00:08arrive later this week. And the driver behind it is the jet stream. It's very active at
00:13the moment, the other side of the Atlantic. However, the strength of the jet stream will
00:17push its way eastwards as we go through the next few days. And it's on that strong jet
00:21that we're going to see the low that is Ciarán deepening rapidly just before it reaches the
00:26UK. There's the potential that it could be the deepest low on record to make landfall
00:31in England in November. So it really is going to be a strong feature. I'll have more on
00:35that in a second. Looking at the details as we go through Monday night, a largely dry
00:40picture across much of Scotland with some clear skies here. Elsewhere, much more unsettled,
00:44heavy showery rain across much of England and Wales. But it's across eastern parts of
00:48Northern Ireland in particular where we're going to see some high rainfall totals building
00:52up. We do have an amber warning in force because over higher ground we could see 75 to 100
00:58millimetres of rain as a result. Some further flooding is possible and we are likely to
01:03see some disruption to travel, particularly as we go through Tuesday morning rush hour.
01:08Temperatures in the north where we get those clear skies and that chilly northerly wind
01:12across parts of Scotland could fall a few degrees below freezing in some prone spots.
01:16And so some frost is likely here. A milder picture elsewhere because of the cloud and
01:21the rain. But where we get any clear skies, there could be some mist and fog patches first
01:25thing on Tuesday morning. As we go through Tuesday itself, then across many parts of
01:30England, Wales, Northern Ireland, there'll be further outbreaks of showery rain. These
01:34could be heavy at times, perhaps even a few rumbles of thunder, but something a little
01:37bit drier for a time for some central areas as we head into the afternoon. But then some
01:42more wet and windy weather pushing its way up from the southwest later on. Across Scotland,
01:47though, staying mostly dry. Yes, some showers will pile down on that northerly wind, but
01:52it is going to be often sunny, albeit with that northerly wind quite chilly at times.
01:56The temperatures here struggling in single figures, a milder story elsewhere, highs of
02:01around 15, possibly 16 Celsius. If you're going trick or treating through Tuesday evening,
02:06watch out for some heavy rain and strong winds pushing up from the southwest, a drier picture
02:11further north. But overnight, the wet and windy weather will sweep its way across much
02:15of the UK. Some heavy rain likely again for Northern Ireland could cause some impacts
02:20here, staying dry and clearer across the far north of Scotland. So here, potential for
02:25a touch of frost again first thing Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, with all the unsettled
02:29weather around, it's going to be that much milder Wednesday, then a pretty unsettled
02:34day. Heavy rain gradually making its way northwards could be quite persistent at times across
02:39parts of Scotland, and there's likely to be some snow over modest higher ground of Scotland
02:43too. Behind it, something perhaps a little bit brighter, some sunny spells, but also
02:47some hefty showers, and some of these could be heavy, possibly even thundery too. Temperatures
02:53in the north still a little bit on the chilly side, milder further south, with highs of
02:57around 14 or 15 Celsius. But notice towards the southwest, this is the beginnings of Storm
03:02Ciaran, and it's this feature then that's going to track its way across central southern
03:06parts of the UK as we go through Wednesday night into Thursday. Yes, it is going to bring
03:10some heavy rain to places that are already still recovering from ongoing flooding issues,
03:15but it's the winds that we're most concerned about. Potential for gusts of 70 to 80 miles
03:20per hour around English coastal parts, possibly even up to 90 miles per hour, most likely
03:25towards the Isles of Scilly. So it is going to be a very wet but very windy period. So
03:29it is worth keeping up to date with the forecast and the warnings that are likely to get tweaked
03:34as we go nearer the time. There's also more information on the forecast in our week ahead
03:39bulletin which went out on YouTube earlier this afternoon, presented by Alex Deakin.
03:43I'll see you later.