There may not be any more tropical storms that affect the U.S. this year, but part of the Caribbean could still experience a tropical system in November.
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00:00 Yeah, pretty quiet in the tropics
00:01 as we head toward the weekend,
00:03 but next week we have to keep an eye
00:06 on what the Southwest Caribbean.
00:08 It's not for a lack of clouds
00:10 in the Atlantic Basin area.
00:12 You can see that we're tracking some
00:14 clouds across the Atlantic Basin.
00:16 In fact, you can.
00:17 We can highlight him here with
00:19 the R in the eastern Atlantic.
00:21 Let's take you into the greater
00:23 Antilles where we have some showers,
00:25 thunderstorms from Hispaniola
00:26 toward Puerto Rico and then in
00:28 the Northwest Caribbean.
00:29 We do have some showers and
00:31 thunderstorms as well,
00:32 but none of these areas are expected
00:34 to develop for two reasons.
00:35 Dry air and wind shear.
00:37 Let me show you the dry air.
00:39 The dry air is extensive across the
00:41 Atlantic as we put this into motion.
00:43 Here's our first area of dry air from
00:46 the islands all the way toward the
00:48 West Coast of Africa.
00:49 You could really see the dry air by this
00:52 yellow, orange and even dark reds here
00:54 across the Southwest Atlantic and
00:56 then pockets of dry air.
00:57 Across the Gulf of Mexico and also
01:00 into the Northwest Caribbean.
01:01 As far as wind shears concerned,
01:03 is extensive.
01:04 You can see all the dark purple here.
01:06 That's our wind shear.
01:08 Strong winds aloft weaken tropical systems,
01:10 so dry air lot of wind shear.
01:12 That's why it's been so quiet.
01:14 However,
01:14 as we head into next week,
01:16 while the wind shear is going
01:18 to continue for most areas,
01:20 notice what's going on here in the
01:22 Southwest Caribbean.
01:23 Not much in the way of wind shear
01:25 and water temperatures are running
01:27 normal about 2 to 3 degrees.
01:29 Above the historical averages,
01:30 you could see the orange and red here,
01:32 so warm water and no wind shear.
01:34 What you need something to really
01:36 start the process to get showers
01:37 and thunderstorms going and we're
01:39 going to watch a frontal boundary
01:40 come South as a strong area of high
01:42 pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic.
01:44 You always look underneath the belly of
01:46 the high pressure system for development.
01:48 I think we're going to get
01:49 development here late next week.
01:51 I still don't think that there's a
01:53 pathway this for this to get to the
01:55 United States but heavy rain possible.
01:57 and the greater Antilles late next week.