A new tropical system may be about to form in the Caribbean Sea as it approaches Central America.
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00:00 November is the final month of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, but the month
00:05 could kick off with a new tropical system in the Caribbean. Bernie shows us
00:09 what we're watching as he continues to track the tropics tonight.
00:12 Yeah, it's in the Caribbean. That's the only game in town across the Atlantic and
00:18 quite frankly I think this is it's the Caribbean that we're going to be looking
00:21 for development in the tropics not only this week but over the next couple of
00:25 weeks. Here's our area of showers and thunderstorms south of the of Jamaica
00:30 also south of Hispaniola today as it continues to move off to the west. Now
00:35 when I look for development I look for a couple of three things warm water we
00:39 have plenty of that. Do we have any wind shear? If there's wind shear there won't
00:43 be any development. Do we have any dry air? If there's dry air that will also
00:47 prevent development. Well you can see both of those the dry air and the wind
00:51 shear and the water vapor loop. Let me show that to you. I don't see a whole lot
00:54 of dry air a little patch here denoted by the yellow shading but not a whole
00:58 lot that's moving away. Also as far as wind shear is concerned I do see plenty
01:02 of wind shear in the northwest Caribbean winds out of the west southwest and the
01:07 Gulf of Mexico but in this zone south of that area where these showers and
01:11 thunderstorms are going I don't see much wind shear. I think winds are pretty
01:15 light. Notice how things are moving from east to west. So then you take a look at
01:20 water temperatures which are warm enough not only they warm enough when you look
01:24 at the anomalies how do the water temperatures now compared to historical
01:28 averages. I mean within this area there there are a degree or two above normal.
01:32 So we have warm water we have lowering wind shear and we don't have a lot of
01:37 dry air. That tells me this system is going to develop. I think it's going to
01:41 develop here in the next now it has limited time because it's located here
01:45 and it's going to be moving towards Central America by Friday night into
01:48 Saturday so it doesn't have a lot of time but I think there's at least a
01:51 tropical depression here. Right now we have a medium. I personally think it's
01:54 higher than that and the other concern I have is these showers and thunderstorms
01:58 and this area of showers and thunderstorms could stall over Nicaragua
02:02 and Honduras producing heavy rain over the weekend so we'll watch for that.
02:06 Right now I do not see a pathway for this system to impact the United States.