AccuWeather forecasters say new tropical development in the Caribbean is likely to happen before Election Day.
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00:00We want to keep an eye on the tropics here. This is a big story, although at this moment we're still storm free and that's been good news, but we don't want to sleep on the rest of the hurricane season.
00:11And our forecast team, our hurricane forecast team, is believing and projecting the forecast, they firmly believe that we'll have at least one and maybe up to three, so one to three more organized systems in the Atlantic Basin.
00:26That would be a tropical depression, tropical storm, or maybe even a hurricane. So we're expecting to see the first of these, and it might be the only one, one to three more named storms or organized systems come out of the western and central part of the Caribbean in the next week or so.
00:41Now if we look at history, storms that form in the Caribbean in October and November, if we were to look at storms that come into this area in September, they often come into Texas or Louisiana.
00:50But you'll notice if they make it to a certain latitude north near Cuba, around that latitude, they get swept away off to the east and northeast by those winds from the west a lot of the time.
01:00Now Sandy was an exception. That hooked it sharply into the coast. That was a very rare case. But if they stay farther south, they end up moving directly west into Central America.
01:11So here's our outlook here between Saturday, November 2nd, and Tuesday. That's election day. As you're probably well aware, November 5th, we have two zones.
01:19Now we're not likely to see development north of Hispaniola, but we are more likely to see development down into the western Caribbean, maybe between Jamaica, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, eastern Honduras.
01:28If this forms far enough north, if the center of circulation is far enough north, it could be driven north, drifting north, and then influenced by that wind as the jet stream sags south this time of the year.
01:39And it could be directed pretty sharply to the north and east, maybe into Florida. If it stays farther south, it'll be more of an impact only into Central America.
01:48We've got to keep an eye on this with development likely through the next seven days.