AccuWeather meteorologists say there is the potential for a late-season tropical system to develop in the Caribbean by the middle of the month, just weeks before the hurricane season concludes on Nov. 30.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 We're closing on the end of the hurricane season.
00:04 Really, once you get past November 15th, it's very hard to get any tropical systems.
00:09 You can see when you look at the timing of the hurricane season here.
00:12 We've been on the downward trend since September 10th.
00:15 And again, by the time you get into mid-November, very difficult to get any tropical systems
00:20 to develop.
00:21 Now, having said that, you still have to keep an area, I think, on one zone.
00:25 It's the Caribbean.
00:27 That's where you typically can get some development.
00:30 And that is an area that we've been warning you about over the last couple of weeks, that
00:35 if we're going to get development, that's the zone that we're going to see it.
00:39 Across the Atlantic, and by the way, water temperatures here, above normal.
00:43 Here they go.
00:44 They're up above normal by at least a couple of degrees here.
00:47 So still very warm water.
00:49 We haven't had any storms or anything in this area in quite some time.
00:53 So the water has been, what we say, undisturbed.
00:55 Now, across the Atlantic, not much.
00:57 We have a couple of frontal boundaries here.
00:58 You've got to keep an eye on frontal boundaries.
01:00 They sometimes can spark some showers and thunderstorms here.
01:03 You can see one front end here.
01:05 That's why we're getting some clouds across Hispaniola and the Virgin Islands, although
01:09 I'm not looking for any development here over the next couple of days.
01:12 A lot of dry air in the Atlantic Basin.
01:15 Take a look at the water vapor loop here.
01:16 And of course, the dry air denoted by the yellow shading here.
01:19 A lot of wind shear as well.
01:20 I'll show you that map as well.
01:22 But I mean, the southwest Atlantic, there's just so much dry air.
01:26 And even right now in the Gulf of Mexico and much of the Caribbean has dry air.
01:31 So even though we have that frontal boundary that I just showed you, here it is, there's
01:35 so much dry air in the Caribbean.
01:37 We're not going to see any development with that.
01:39 Also, wind shear.
01:40 I have our wind shear product here, where you see the dark purple is where you have
01:43 strong winds.
01:45 Wind shear weakens tropical systems.
01:47 And pretty much right now, the entire Atlantic Basin is shut down for business.
01:55 Only a little sliver here in the southern part of the Caribbean.
01:59 Now next week, here's what we're going to be watching for you.
02:03 Not much going in the Caribbean right now.
02:04 As I mentioned, there's too much wind shear.
02:07 But next week, I think this is an area to watch as we get toward the middle and latter
02:12 half of next week for the chance of some development.
02:15 I think something is going to try to develop down here in the southwest Caribbean.
02:20 But see, here's the kind of the setup here.
02:22 It's a frontal boundary that's going to come south and stall.
02:24 You always look on the south of the front and on the belly of the strong surface high
02:30 pressure systems.
02:31 One mid to late next week will be across mid-Atlantic.
02:33 So this is an area to watch.
02:35 So one thing, though, I think something's going to try to develop out there.
02:40 I don't know if it's going to be a tropical storm, but I certainly think there's going
02:43 to be a depression.
02:44 But here's the thing.
02:45 There's going to be so much wind shear here across the United States, across the Gulf
02:49 of Mexico and Florida.
02:51 Even if this system tried to come this far north, it would get sheared apart.
02:54 Number one.
02:55 Number two, I think there's going to be strong westerly flow here across the United States
03:01 and, in fact, much of the Caribbean.
03:03 So as this system tries to come northward and it will, it would be shunted off to the
03:07 east.
03:08 So I do not see a pathway for development or a landfalling storm for the United States
03:14 here.
03:15 But I would watch this area here from Jamaica, southeast Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the
03:19 Virgin Islands, that we could be looking at some heavy rain here as we get in toward the
03:24 middle and latter half of next week.