AccuWeather forecasters say there's a high chance of a new tropical system in the first week of November.
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00:00But it does help to break down.
00:02The environmental factors to why we
00:04are monitoring some activity in the
00:06Atlantic Basin still temperatures
00:08are running above where we would
00:10typically sit if you look at that
00:13anomaly and right in the MDR that
00:15Atlantic Main Development region.
00:17They are still running pretty warm,
00:19even if you compare it to the
00:2110 years from 2013 to 2023,
00:23we're still running above even
00:25that curve through today.
00:26So while we are starting our downward
00:28trend, we're still running above
00:30to where we typically sat.
00:32Tropical tracker here into mid November.
00:34This is going to be the area
00:36that we are monitoring.
00:37That's going to extend up and down
00:39the Caribbean where we do have moisture.
00:42Pretty much persistent to thunderstorms,
00:43though we're not tracking a lot of wind
00:46shear and that's not good news,
00:48especially when it comes to
00:49the impacts of a storm.
00:51Now for the storm,
00:52it's great news because it doesn't
00:54have a lot to fight against.
00:56Very warm waters that we're going
00:57to help fuel this storm,
00:59so it's really going to see when the
01:01ingredients can all line up together.
01:04We're calling for development
01:05November 2nd through the 5th.
01:07We also have another area of low
01:09concern from tomorrow through the 4th,
01:11mostly going to be this high area
01:13that we are monitoring here,
01:14though you'll see that some convection
01:16happening across parts where we do
01:18have that low chance of development,
01:20but it's really a tale of two
01:22scenarios and to the mid to late week.
01:25If this is the case,
01:27if this jet can dip low enough and
01:29continue to help pull this storm north,
01:32then that's when we could see some
01:34interaction if it takes that northern track.
01:37If that jet moves East,
01:39then those US impacts are possible,
01:41though if it does start to close off
01:43and it stalls across the Rockies,
01:45that storm at least with that jet,
01:47the US impacts are unlikely as we
01:50are expecting that storm to move West.