Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00:00For the love of the horse, for generations to come.
00:00:28It's Belmont Steaks Week, and that means it's time for another edition of the TDN Writer's
00:00:32Room.
00:00:33Hi, my name is Bill Finlay.
00:00:34I'm a correspondent with Thoroughbred Daily News, also co-host of the Down the Stretch
00:00:37Show with Dave Johnson at Sirius XM Radio on Saturday mornings, that's what I said.
00:00:42And I'm TD Thornton, stable mate of Bill's at Thoroughbred Daily News, speaking to you
00:00:46from a little north of Boston today.
00:00:48Well, absolutely delighted to be able to put the name to the face now, Tim.
00:00:54Happy to have you here.
00:00:55I'm Zoe Catlin with First Racing, minus Doodle in the background.
00:00:58He's already been to the track, got his sausage and put himself back to bed like a good boy.
00:01:03And want to remind you that the TDN Writer's Room podcast is brought to you by Keeneland.
00:01:07All right, guys, let's get right into it.
00:01:09The Belmont Steaks, very interesting race, not a perfect triple crown season.
00:01:14We'd like to see more horses participate in all the races, but nonetheless, you've got
00:01:18a field of nine going to line up at Big Sandy on Saturday.
00:01:22And I'm going down this race and I've eliminated everybody, I've got a knock on every major
00:01:29horse in the race.
00:01:30I'm pulling my hair out, I don't know what to do.
00:01:32So let's start with the number one story, I think in this race is Forte.
00:01:38Obviously his credentials are impeccable, a two year old champion, wins the Breeders'
00:01:42Cup, wins the Florida Derby.
00:01:44But couple issues with him, the 10 week layoff, the missing the Derby, my take on him, I didn't
00:01:50like him in the Derby.
00:01:52How can I pick him in the Belmont considering all these, you know, kind of hurdles in his
00:01:56way?
00:01:57TD, what do you think?
00:01:58You know, he does resonate to me as kind of a headline horse.
00:02:03We've only seen him twice since the Breeders' Cup, once at a mile and a 16th in the Fountain
00:02:07of Youth where he was in complete control of the race, had the field at his mercy and
00:02:12it was not a top notch field.
00:02:14He came back in the Florida Derby.
00:02:16He kind of had one of those pulled, snatched a victory from the jaws of defeat type of
00:02:22races where he looked beaten on the far turn.
00:02:25He reeled in Mage.
00:02:27At that time, we didn't know where Mage was at in the pecking order.
00:02:31We've now seen that he's come back to win the Kentucky Derby.
00:02:33So that kind of solidified Forte's status.
00:02:35But you know, he really resonates to me as a vulnerable favorite in the Belmont for the
00:02:41reason you mentioned, 10 week layoff, 12 furlongs, never been that far.
00:02:45And that's quite a, quite a big gap time-wise between starts.
00:02:48We know he's had a foot issue in between that he's reportedly recovered from, but a tough
00:02:54horse, I think, to take it at low odds in that spot.
00:02:58Guys, I think you guys are crazy.
00:03:01I mean, I don't know why you're worried about a 10 week layoff.
00:03:03What's wrong with you?
00:03:05We all loved him in the Fountain of Youth stakes.
00:03:07And that was a layoff since November the 4th, when he took down the Breeders' Cup Juvenile
00:03:12to the 4th of March.
00:03:14That was a longer layoff.
00:03:16There was more time between races.
00:03:18Now, I'm not sold that he is a mile and a half horse since I'm not putting him on top.
00:03:24Do I like him more than I liked him going into the Kentucky Derby?
00:03:27Yes, for sure I do.
00:03:29Because I was worried that that gutting in the Florida Derby took too much out of him.
00:03:34So the 10 weeks for me is perfect.
00:03:36Trainer Todd Pletcher, 23% off a layoff of more than 180 days.
00:03:41If you're worried about the 10 week layoff and not the fact that he's bred to go a mile
00:03:47and a half, I think you're absolutely crazy.
00:03:49Forte is going to be the best version of Forte that we've seen this year going into this race.
00:03:55Now, is he a mile and a half horse?
00:03:58I'm not sure.
00:03:59That is the niggling instinct in the back of my mind.
00:04:03Zoe, one thing I will definitely agree with you.
00:04:05I don't think Todd Pletcher would be trying this if he wasn't very confident that he could
00:04:09pull it off.
00:04:11So I'm a little bit worried about that.
00:04:12But I didn't like his Florida Derby.
00:04:14And I threw him out in the Kentucky Derby, and I'm thinking, well, if I throw him out
00:04:17in the Kentucky Derby, how can I pick him now in the Belmont Stakes?
00:04:21So that's just one more thought about him.
00:04:23OK, so when we're on the subject of Pletcher, let's stick with Tappit Trice in here.
00:04:28And this is a horse, every time he runs this year, I'm wrong about him.
00:04:33I hated his Tampa Bay Derby, so he comes back and wins the Bluegrass.
00:04:37I love this Bluegrass, so he comes back.
00:04:39I pick him in the Kentucky Derby, and I thought, to be honest, I think his Kentucky Derby stunk.
00:04:45He had no excuse that day.
00:04:47Everybody was coming from all the horses that were at the finish line were horses that came
00:04:52from off the pace.
00:04:53He was well back early, he had no excuses, and he just didn't fire.
00:04:57He didn't have anything, any gas in his tank in the stretch.
00:05:03So the same sort of thing, you know, how can I take him now coming off a race that I really
00:05:08wasn't impressed with?
00:05:09Now, having said that, you've obviously got to take other factors into account.
00:05:13The Tappits, how well they've done in the Belmont for the last eight years, and this
00:05:17pattern where Pletcher has had other horses that have not run exceptionally well in the
00:05:22Kentucky Derby, then he passes the Preakness and wins the Belmont.
00:05:25But he's going to be either second or third choice.
00:05:29I can't go with him off a race in the Kentucky Derby that I thought was pretty unimpressive.
00:05:34You know, I have a little bit of a different opinion on Tappit Trice here.
00:05:39I think he's a tailor-made horse for Belmont Park and perhaps a mile and a half.
00:05:44You know, we've written ad nauseum all winter and spring long about how he just puts himself
00:05:49out of the race at the start.
00:05:50I mean, the visual of having to be scrubbed on for run, leaving the starting gate in the
00:05:55Tampa Bay Derby, again in the bluegrass at Keeneland.
00:05:59However, he does unleash this monster move from six furlongs out, which when I look at
00:06:06the contenders in the Triple Crown Series, I like to see when I'm assessing their prep
00:06:11races where they start their runs.
00:06:13And in both the bluegrass and the Derby, despite kind of putting himself behind the eight ball,
00:06:18he did manage to start cranking up six furlongs out.
00:06:21I haven't seen any other horse be able to do that type, put together that type of sustained
00:06:26run.
00:06:27Hasn't always resulted in a victory for Tappit Trice.
00:06:29In the Derby, he had a couple of momentum stops.
00:06:32That's also seems to be par for the course for him.
00:06:34He's a big, burly gray.
00:06:36It takes him a while to unwind, and he did respond to rousing on the far turn.
00:06:41I think when he got into the stretch, Luis Saez, when he hit the eighth pole and it was
00:06:47obvious he wasn't going to make a dent into the top four, he saved Tappit Trice for another
00:06:52day.
00:06:53Presumably Saturday is that day in the Belmont Stakes.
00:06:56So I think it's, you know, Tappit Trice moves up a little bit to me.
00:07:00He skipped the Preakness.
00:07:02He's coming in relatively fresh for the Belmont, but there is a now or never element to what
00:07:07he has to produce on Saturday.
00:07:10I love him.
00:07:11And I have not said that once about Tappit Trice.
00:07:15I have never said that I love him.
00:07:17He's got the perfect style for the Belmont, watching him train over Big Sandy.
00:07:22He's a big, sturdy, galloping son of Tappit out of a Dunkirk mare.
00:07:27He just plows through the ground there at Belmont.
00:07:31He makes his move at the six far long pole.
00:07:33The six far long pole on Big Sandy is at the half mile pole.
00:07:36So he's got ample time.
00:07:38He's not one of those horses who's going to move too early.
00:07:41We've seen it time and time again.
00:07:42Real quiet just still plays over and over and over again in my head.
00:07:46And Smarty Jones moving too early.
00:07:48This is a horse that can sustain a long run.
00:07:51So if he moves at the three quarts pole at the half mile pole, I think he's going to
00:07:55be absolutely fine.
00:07:56Dick is not going to be a problem with this smaller field.
00:08:00And they get strung out in the running of the Belmont stakes.
00:08:03Luis Saez is not going to be a problem.
00:08:05Todd Pletcher is not going to be a problem.
00:08:07The post position is not going to be a problem.
00:08:10I really like Tappit Trice.
00:08:12And I love the way that he is trained over the track there at Belmont.
00:08:16So I am most definitely using him along, guys, with Angel of Empire, who gets the blinkers
00:08:22on.
00:08:23He's worked in the morning with the blinkers on with Flavian Pratt.
00:08:26After the derby, Flavian came back to Brad Cox and said, we need to put them on in the
00:08:31afternoon.
00:08:32So while he's not classically bred by Classic Empire to get the distance, I think we're
00:08:37going to see a renewed Angel of Empire, more like the one we've seen in the morning as
00:08:41opposed to the grinding sort we've seen in the afternoon.
00:08:44I'm boxing the pair of them.
00:08:46All right.
00:08:47Angel of Empire is the Pennsylvania bred in there.
00:08:49And I'm going to he's going to be my pick in here.
00:08:51But again, I can't muster a lot of enthusiasm for anybody in this race.
00:08:56He ran really well in the Kentucky Derby, no doubt about it.
00:08:58I mean, he was third beaten only a length and a half.
00:09:00But he too had a perfect trip.
00:09:02Absolutely.
00:09:03It was a very good ride by Flavian Pratt.
00:09:05And he had no excuse not to win that day, again, with the way the pace meltdown was
00:09:09and how everybody coming from the back of the pack was moving up.
00:09:12But having said that, it was not anything close to a bad race.
00:09:16As a matter of fact, you know, he did what I think Taffa Trice should have done in the
00:09:21Kentucky Derby, which was really show us something in the stretch run where he was making up
00:09:26ground.
00:09:27Another jump or two, he would have been second.
00:09:29I don't think he was going to get by Mage at any time soon, but he made a nice run.
00:09:34Obviously, Brad Cox is, you know, as an asset and the blinkers on thing is very interesting.
00:09:41I would imagine that would help him be a little bit closer to the pace, which I think is going
00:09:45to be something to his advantage in the Belmont.
00:09:49So for what it's worth, he's my pick.
00:09:50I'm going to go in a different direction here.
00:09:53The horse we haven't talked about yet, the potential pacemaker, National Treasure.
00:09:57Now, he comes off of a win in the Preakness Stakes in which everybody after the race was
00:10:03talking about how Johnny Velasquez put the field to sleep on the front end.
00:10:07They went very slow fractions for up to the three quarters time.
00:10:11But look at the final three sixteenths of that race.
00:10:15He finished up in a prolonged stretch battle with Blazing Sevens in 18.05 seconds.
00:10:24And I went back through the Equibase charts the other night.
00:10:27You can't find a faster closing three sixteenths in the Preakness in all of the Equibase charts
00:10:32that are listed.
00:10:33That goes back to 1991.
00:10:34Doing a little bit further digging, I found out that what is believed to be the record
00:10:39is 18 seconds flat.
00:10:41And that was set by Summer Squall in the 1990 Preakness when he was, I believe, just two
00:10:45ticks off the track record.
00:10:48That's an impressive number to put up.
00:10:49He walked them early.
00:10:51He was engaged in a duel.
00:10:53He clearly had the upper hand over Blazing Sevens.
00:10:56And I believe National Treasure was even emboldened by some of the bumping and brushing that went
00:11:00on through the lane in that race.
00:11:03Bob Baffert said after the race, it did not take too much out of him, apparently.
00:11:08And he's coming back as a fresh horse.
00:11:10Now, do you say that he got lucky, he caught a soft field in the Preakness?
00:11:14Do you actually believe the clocking of 18.05 seconds for that final three sixteenths?
00:11:19I haven't heard anybody dispute it.
00:11:21It seems a little unbelievable, but I can't present any evidence to dispute it.
00:11:24But if that's a real number, that is an exceptionally fast time.
00:11:29I don't think he needs the lead to win in the Belmont Stakes.
00:11:32John Velasquez riding on his home court, so to speak.
00:11:36He might let some of the other long shot speedballs go in that race, sit a stalking
00:11:40trip.
00:11:41National Treasure has been capable of stalking in the past.
00:11:43I think he will be part of the pace, doesn't necessarily have to have the lead to win.
00:11:48And I think he's kind of under the radar here at five to one.
00:11:51Yeah, TD, I largely agree with you there.
00:11:54I do think that he's got a chance in this race.
00:11:57But you know, from a handicapping standpoint, I can't pick a horse back off a perfect trip
00:12:01like he had in the Preakness.
00:12:03And I don't think he'll actually get the lead here.
00:12:06I think this horse, Il Maricolo, would be my guess.
00:12:10Last time out, they went to the front in an allowance race at Gulfstream 23-45-1.
00:12:16And it really worked out well for them.
00:12:17So if I'm the connection, I mean, the horse has no chance.
00:12:20But you know, you look at him and think, you know, if we're going to pull off the biggest
00:12:25upset and one of the biggest upsets in Triple Crown history in recent years, how are we
00:12:28going to do it?
00:12:30It's only going to be on the front end.
00:12:32So I'm with you.
00:12:34But you know, he just he got everything his own way.
00:12:37I know he was game in the Preakness, in the stretch.
00:12:40I know all the things you said about his, you know, his fractional times finishing up.
00:12:45But that just walking on the lead in there, that's not going to happen again.
00:12:49Zoe, your take on National Treasure?
00:12:51Oh, I think that Randy grew some hair and came back as TD Thornton.
00:12:55Way to go down the rabbit hole there, TD.
00:12:57I love that, that 18 seconds.
00:12:59So we've got some competition for Randy here with rabbit holes.
00:13:04Yeah, National Treasure.
00:13:05I don't think anyone's going to challenge Bob Baffert and Johnny V for the lead.
00:13:09I really don't.
00:13:11He's been training like a bear.
00:13:13He's a fresh horse.
00:13:14Even off the wind, he's been training lights out there at Belmont Park.
00:13:19And a lot of people coming in nowadays that have got speed don't want to challenge Bob
00:13:23on the lead if they're intent on getting the lead.
00:13:25So I think they're probably just going to play out the break.
00:13:30National Treasure, Bob knows how to win at Belmont.
00:13:32We all know that.
00:13:33We just have to see if he's good enough.
00:13:34I've got one more to throw at you.
00:13:36We've seen women win the Belmont as a jockey, Julie Crone.
00:13:40I think it's her 30th year anniversary that she won the Belmont State.
00:13:46How about Jenna Antonucci and Arc Angelo?
00:13:49Won the local prep for Peter Pan by a head.
00:13:51He's a lightly raced son of Arrogate.
00:13:53Read to run all day.
00:13:55He's been training very well.
00:13:56Went out for a routine two-minute lick and actually wound up working 5.8s and 1.02.
00:14:01He runs the track very nicely indeed.
00:14:03It's going to be a long shot.
00:14:04He's lightly raced, but I'm going to use him in my exotics.
00:14:09Arc Angelo for Jenna Antonucci, a very, very good trainer indeed.
00:14:13All right, TD.
00:14:14Who's your live semi-long shot then?
00:14:17Well, I think at five to one, I'm going to go with National Treasure.
00:14:19I mean, the three horses ranked ahead of me.
00:14:22Five to one?
00:14:23No way.
00:14:24No way.
00:14:25In the morning line, the horses ranked ahead of him are all deep closes.
00:14:29I mean, Forte, one of the things that I read Ortiz said after the Florida Derby was he
00:14:36was hustling that horse to try and get up there to beat with the pacemakers on the first
00:14:40turn.
00:14:41And I remember one of his post-race quotes that stuck in my head was, the horse just
00:14:44couldn't get up there.
00:14:45I wanted him more forwardly placed, and I had to hustle him.
00:14:49Didn't work.
00:14:50Had to back off.
00:14:51So I think Forte, even with the blinkers on, Angel of Empire, is that going to really put
00:14:56him up into the front vanguard?
00:14:57I don't think so.
00:14:59You see a trip where National Treasure stalks off somebody like an Il Maricolo, Forte and
00:15:03Tapitrice, they're going to be gunning for him.
00:15:05But I think National Treasure is going to get the jump off the turn, and that's where
00:15:08the rate the Belmont Stakes is going to be won this year.
00:15:11Yeah, I'm sort of on Zoe's same wavelength here.
00:15:15I'm not going to pick Arcangelo, but if you want to throw in a 10-12 to one shot for most
00:15:20of the reasons she said, and they're putting up $50,000 to supplement this horse into the
00:15:24Belmont Stakes, not an original Triple Crown nominee.
00:15:28They've read to go the distance and in good form coming off the Peter Pan win.
00:15:32So any other insights we haven't covered at all, guys?
00:15:36I think for the Belmont Stakes, yes.
00:15:38I mean, it's a terrific card at Belmont.
00:15:40Hopefully we get into that a little bit later.
00:15:42Six grade ones.
00:15:44It's like a mini Breeders' Cup we're having at Belmont this weekend.
00:15:47Yeah, we'll get into that right after this message.
00:15:50Zoe, from Keeneland, what do you have for us?
00:15:52Yeah, just a reminder that the TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by Keeneland, home
00:15:57of the World's Yearling Sale.
00:15:59The energy, magic, and momentum of the September Yearling Sale returns on September the 11th
00:16:04through the 23rd.
00:16:06Learn more at theworldyearlingsale.com.
00:16:09We'll be right back after this terrific message from Keeneland.
00:16:13If this place could talk, it would roar, it would say, this is a reset, this beating heart
00:16:28in the heart of horse country, steady and strong beneath the roar, reminding us why
00:16:37for the love of the horse for generations to come.
00:16:44Spicetown.
00:16:47Bunnington.
00:16:51Echotown.
00:16:54It's Echotown for Joe Talamo, and Echotown breaks the wave.
00:16:59And Echotown is drawing away in the stretch.
00:17:02Echotown wins the Alan Turkin Stakes.
00:17:05A sire line so prolific it repeats itself.
00:17:09Echotown.
00:17:14The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by Coolmore.
00:17:17American Pharoah had no fewer than six winners over the weekend, including Windows Shopping
00:17:22in the Grade II Summertime Oaks.
00:17:24Written for the second time by Hector Berrios, she more than made up for a disastrous trip
00:17:29in the Santa Anita Oaks.
00:17:31Not sure she could have gotten any more trouble that day, but this time she was stuck between
00:17:35horses for the whole race, and she certainly proved her mettle.
00:17:39The Keeneland Graduate is trained by Richard Mandela and owned by Perry and Ramona Bass.
00:17:44How impressive is it to have six wins over the weekend?
00:17:47Meanwhile, Ashford's top sire Uncle Mo is doing as good as ever this year.
00:17:52His daughter Super Hoytie Toytie got her fourth stakes win this weekend.
00:17:57In the Grade III Belle Mahone at Woodbine, Uncle Mo now has five graded stakes winner on the year.
00:18:03That's third best in all of North America.
00:18:08Well, it's that time again. First things first at Santa Anita.
00:18:12It's a Sunday here at Santa Anita Park, and if you can't beat them, you join them.
00:18:20We're going to take them on in the Dragon Boat. Everybody ready?
00:18:24Yeah, we definitely had some fun this weekend. We had Dragon Boat Racing.
00:18:31Now, if you've never heard of this, it is a team building event.
00:18:35It was actually sponsored by the Diamond 100 Racing Club at Santa Anita.
00:18:39We had heats on the infield, and the broadcast team got together to have a go and face off against the marketing team.
00:18:47Now, I was in the front. I had Michelle Yu behind me, Jessica Pfeiffer behind her, and Peter Lorre bringing up the rear.
00:18:55We set off at a pretty good pace. I was being shoved along by Michelle Yu earlier,
00:18:59and Peter, trying to go one-handed like he was riding a bull, brought up the rear.
00:19:04Now, things got a little tricky in the final 16th of a mile.
00:19:08Peter taking a tumble, bringing down Jessica Pfeiffer, falling on top of her.
00:19:13Michelle Yu trying to keep herself up, shoved me to the ground, and then went on to win it on her own.
00:19:18A really, really fun afternoon of racing. Not only does Santa Anita have horse racing,
00:19:24apparently now we have Dragon Boat Racing.
00:19:27I do want to remind you that racing will continue this weekend with a 1 o'clock post time on Friday.
00:19:33Stakes action this weekend will be the Santa Margarita Stakes, Honeymoon Stakes, and Cinema Stakes on Sunday.
00:19:39I do want to remind you we have a 1 o'clock post on Saturday, and gates will open at 8 a.m. for Belmont Stakes Day.
00:19:52And as Zoe mentioned earlier, so much to talk about on the Saturday card at Belmont.
00:19:56Nine graded stakes races, including six grade ones, and the six grade ones go off all in a row.
00:20:03This is, to me, and I don't think there's much disputing this, next to the Breeders' Cup Saturday,
00:20:09the best card of racing offered anywhere in the United States.
00:20:13So, kudos to Belmont Park for putting on quite a show.
00:20:17So, why don't we go through, start with the grade ones.
00:20:20The seventh is the Ogden Fips, another rematch between Secret Oak and Clairier.
00:20:25They've split the decision this year, Clairier getting the win in the Apple Blossom last time out.
00:20:31Played hard coming off a grade one win in the La Troye, and is certainly a major contender.
00:20:37Field of six, very good race, and the two leading fillies in, older fillies and mayors in training.
00:20:44Clairier won this race last year, Steve Asmussen has won it three of the last four years.
00:20:50TD, what do you think?
00:20:52Well, Clairier, when she won it last year, was nine to two in the wagering,
00:20:56and she's not going to be anywhere close to that this year.
00:20:58She's six to five on the morning line, and she probably deserves every penny of it.
00:21:02You have to, I think, start with looking at the top three from La Troye in here.
00:21:07They're all coming back on Saturday in the Fips.
00:21:10Played hard, won that race.
00:21:12She had good speed, but was rated.
00:21:15She was keen, despite being under a rating hold.
00:21:18Eventually, off the far turn, she pulled in the pacemaker.
00:21:21She had a wall of five fillies and mayors behind her trying to close the gap,
00:21:25and she held in pretty well.
00:21:27Search results briefly got the lead between calls.
00:21:30Played hard, clawed it back, and in the interim, secret oath came up
00:21:34and was second beating the neck, which has been her result the past couple of races.
00:21:39It is kind of hard to get around Clairier here.
00:21:42I think just her consistency in terms of the buyer numbers, she's fired at least a 100 number,
00:21:49a little more consistently than some of the others in here.
00:21:52Last time out, she was the victress in the Apple Blossom stakes.
00:21:55She did win the Fips last year, as Bill said.
00:21:58I guess if you're looking at multi-race exotics, sure, you have to use her,
00:22:02and if you're playing a straight win, you have to decide if six to five is your breaking point or not.
00:22:08Yeah, it's Clairier.
00:22:09She's been pointed for this race.
00:22:10She hasn't had one in between.
00:22:12She's fresh coming in.
00:22:13Her last race was on the 15th of April.
00:22:17Secret oath, I think I mentioned this a while back.
00:22:21Her better race has come early in the year because she doesn't get a break after that.
00:22:24She ran her guts out in the Latter AM last time out.
00:22:28I think she's going to be close.
00:22:29She's certainly going to be part of it late, but I think Clairier is going to get the best of them.
00:22:34As far as played hard, I think she ran hard.
00:22:37I'd love to see her break 100 by one of these days, but I'm not sure she's quite good enough.
00:22:43I will throw one in there who I think will run a better race, and that is search results,
00:22:48purely for the fact that she loves Belmont Park and she'll get the services of Flavian Pratt again.
00:22:53But for me, it's going to be Clairier.
00:22:55Coming up next is the Woody Stevens.
00:22:57It's a grade one, seven furlongs for three-year-olds.
00:23:00A lot of chalk in this portion of the program.
00:23:04Not in this race.
00:23:05This race is pretty wide open.
00:23:07You've got a field of 10 in here.
00:23:09Excuse me, you've got a field of 13 going in this seven furlong race.
00:23:14I'm going to go with Fort Bragg in here.
00:23:16Ran last time out in the Pat Day mile very good.
00:23:20Second beat in the neck behind General Jim and is back in the Bob Baffert barn.
00:23:25No knock on Tim Yaktin.
00:23:26He's done a good job in a difficult situation with some of these Baffert horses.
00:23:30But I just think the mojo of going back in the Baffert barn, who, by the way, is running his first horses
00:23:35quite some time at Belmont because, remember, they, too, had instituted a ban against him,
00:23:40though it was shorter than the one at Churchill Downs.
00:23:42So I'm sure Bob is delighted to be back in action Saturday at Belmont Park.
00:23:46But a real wide open race.
00:23:48Arabian Lion is the other Baffert horse in here coming off a big win in the Sir Barton.
00:23:52I think the question there is going back to the seven furlongs after running two turns a mile in the 16th
00:23:58and whether or not that horse will bounce.
00:23:59And then General Jim for Shug McGahee.
00:24:01He certainly got a chance.
00:24:02TD, what do you think?
00:24:04You have to remember one of Baffert's quotes after winning the Sir Barton,
00:24:08after Arabian Lion wired the field easily at, I believe, two to five odds, short field.
00:24:13I think it was a five-horse field.
00:24:15He said, I should have run him in the Preakness.
00:24:16Can you imagine what the pace in the Preakness would have been like with Arabian Lion in there?
00:24:21But that's all conjecture at this point.
00:24:24General Jim, remember last year he started on the turf.
00:24:28Trainer Shug McGahee entered him in the Mucho Macho Man, a one-turn mile sort of prep race on the derby trail
00:24:35for horses who are maybe looking to go longer distances.
00:24:38He was fourth, only beating a length and a half there.
00:24:41And then Shug kept him at the middle distances, which I think has been a wise move.
00:24:45He's won the Swale Stakes, won the Pat Day on the derby undercard.
00:24:49It was a relentless, willing close from General Jim.
00:24:53But, Bill, I hope you didn't jinx the horse that I like here,
00:24:55because Fort Bragg is the horse who catches my eye at five to one.
00:24:59He got first run into some very fast fractions.
00:25:02He twice repulsed bids from the eventual winner, General Jim, in that race.
00:25:06And I like to see that when a horse does that, even if it's in defeat.
00:25:09Sometimes it shows a little more grit and a little more guts in the final 16th or so.
00:25:16I think, as you said, the cutback in distances has helped.
00:25:19They tried him on the derby trail and derby distance type of races earlier in the season.
00:25:26He was running against horses at a mile and a sixteenth, like Forte.
00:25:31He twice lost a practical move.
00:25:33Fort Bragg at seven furlongs won the beat.
00:25:36I can't get by an Arabian lion.
00:25:38The cutback in distance probably is only going to help him.
00:25:41He hasn't had a really sharp work in the interim.
00:25:44So I think he's ready to rock and roll.
00:25:47So I like him.
00:25:48But another one that I think we've forgotten about is what's wrong with Drew's gold on the outside.
00:25:53He's undefeated.
00:25:54He's four for four.
00:25:55He's had a local prep over the track and 98 by a speed figure coming off a short layup.
00:26:00It's fresh.
00:26:01He's ready.
00:26:03I like him as well.
00:26:05I think he's going to get a good trip from the outside.
00:26:07He's got just enough speed to not lose too much ground on that one term.
00:26:11As are your points.
00:26:12Well taken.
00:26:13I mean, this is a very good betting race.
00:26:14Very wide open.
00:26:15Drew's gold at eight to one in the morning line.
00:26:17Okay.
00:26:18We move on now to the gypher.
00:26:19This is always an interesting good race.
00:26:21Six furlongs on the turf.
00:26:23Caravelle.
00:26:24Originally, they were going to go to Royal Ascot with her last year's Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint winner.
00:26:28And shout out to our friends, the Pennsylvania Breeders.
00:26:31Another very good, outstanding Pennsylvania bred.
00:26:34She's three to one in the morning line and certainly the marquee horse in here.
00:26:37But I'm just wondering maybe.
00:26:40I know it's splitting hairs.
00:26:42But if six furlongs is not exactly what she wants.
00:26:46If she's not more a five, five and a half furlong horse.
00:26:49But we'll find out about that.
00:26:51She's obviously in great form right now.
00:26:53I'm going to go with Casa Creed, who won this race last year for Bill Mott.
00:26:57Was four to one that day.
00:26:58Came back in February.
00:27:00Ran very well in Saudi Arabia to finish second.
00:27:03This horse fits this race perfectly.
00:27:06Won the race in 2021.
00:27:09Won it again in 22, going for three straight wins.
00:27:13Which will be quite a remarkable feat for the seven-year-old by Jimmy Creed.
00:27:17I think he needs pace up front.
00:27:20I think there is definitely enough pace to set it up for him to get his run.
00:27:24So I'm a Casa Creed handicapper, picker guy in the jiper.
00:27:29TD?
00:27:30Yeah, all the major contenders seem to be drawn outside in this big field.
00:27:33It's got 14 with two on the A.E. list.
00:27:36I'm going to go with big invasion here.
00:27:38It's six to one for Christophe Clement.
00:27:40This is a horse that won six sprints in a row last year on the grass.
00:27:44Last time out on the Derby Undercard,
00:27:47he checked off heels pretty hard at the eighth pole.
00:27:50And was seventh, but only beaten four and a half lengths.
00:27:54You know, in these turf sprints,
00:27:56which are usually bonkers for me to try and handicap.
00:27:59It's not my strong suit.
00:28:01But I like to see those horses who maybe have a little hidden form.
00:28:04People will look at that seventh place finish,
00:28:06still being beaten only four and a half lengths,
00:28:08despite having your momentum stopped 200 yards from the wire.
00:28:11It's got to count for something.
00:28:12And six to one, I'll take a chance to find out.
00:28:16I'm used to Randy stealing my thunder,
00:28:18but wasn't expecting TD to do the same thing.
00:28:20Nice pick, TD.
00:28:21I love big invasion in here for all of the reasons that you did mention.
00:28:26He's perfect over Belmont.
00:28:27He's one for one.
00:28:28His win coming there over seven furlongs.
00:28:30I'm rooting for Casa Creed.
00:28:32The old guy, seven years old.
00:28:34And I would also love to see Caravelle in there.
00:28:36So perhaps I'll just bet a trifecta.
00:28:38But big invasion with Rosario back in the saddle,
00:28:41I think is going to score.
00:28:43We move on now to the, I think, the second biggest race on the day.
00:28:47And something we always look forward to,
00:28:49which is the Hill and Dale Metropolitan Handicap,
00:28:51better known as the Met Mile.
00:28:53And Cody's wish in here at seven to five,
00:28:56he's the marquee horse in this race,
00:28:58coming off a big win in a seven furlong race at Churchill Downs.
00:29:02And, boy, it looks like he's just working lights out for Belmont up at
00:29:06Saratoga on the training track,
00:29:08which you don't get very fast workouts there necessarily.
00:29:11Three straight bullet workouts,
00:29:13including on June 4th his latest work for that in 46 and four.
00:29:17Very interesting race.
00:29:19I'm going to go for Repo Rocks.
00:29:21The Jamie Ness miracle that has been a very different horse,
00:29:27as happens with so many horses that come into his barn.
00:29:30Just based on buyer numbers, he's fast enough to win this.
00:29:34Now, you know, is he going to bounce off that 109 in the Westchester?
00:29:39That's the question.
00:29:40But he's thrown in a 109 and a 111 this year,
00:29:44which really puts him as fast,
00:29:47if not a little bit faster than Cody's wish.
00:29:49I just don't want to keep, you know,
00:29:51no knocks on Cody's wish, but, you know,
00:29:54I think this is a situation where maybe you want to think a little bit
00:29:58outside the box a little bit, and I'll go with Repo Rocks.
00:30:00And actually Dr. Scheibel at 10 to one,
00:30:03I don't know if he wants to go a mile or not.
00:30:05You know,
00:30:06his career has all been running in shorter races, primarily six furlongs,
00:30:09but I think he's in the mix as well.
00:30:11Coming off a big win last time out,
00:30:13he's probably had some physical problems as he had a big gap in his form
00:30:17from March 26, 2022 to May of this year.
00:30:21But you can see it was only a three horse field,
00:30:23but he beat CZ Rocket in that race.
00:30:25And CZ Rocket is a very good horse.
00:30:27So that's my take on the Met TD Thornton.
00:30:30My assessment is Cody's wish.
00:30:33You can't bet on him.
00:30:34You can't bet against him.
00:30:36He had that big,
00:30:38visually impressive move off the far turn last time out on the Churchill
00:30:43on the derby undercard at Churchill.
00:30:45And when you see those horses making that rocket type of move,
00:30:50it really sticks in your head.
00:30:53But when I went back and parsed the race,
00:30:55he was really the only horse who got first run on two tiring long shots,
00:31:00one of whom he'll face back in here again on Saturday.
00:31:03And it's the type of effort that makes me share Bill's mentality of,
00:31:09well, let's think outside the box here, but you go outside the box.
00:31:12Who else is there?
00:31:13To my way of thinking,
00:31:16banking on somebody like a Chargette or a Zanden,
00:31:19two horses who were pretty highly rated on the Triple Crown Trail last year
00:31:23and are really still trying to find their best form at age four.
00:31:26White Abario, he was in the mix last year, too.
00:31:29As far as Triple Crown status,
00:31:31he's making his first start for Richard Dutrow,
00:31:34switching over to a new stable for the Met Mile.
00:31:37And Slowdown Andy, he was briefly on the Triple Crown Trail last year,
00:31:41hasn't started since the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
00:31:44So this race is kind of a conundrum for me.
00:31:46It's probably a take a pass as far as straight wagering goes.
00:31:49And I think you have to sock in Cody's Wish there as a reluctant single.
00:31:54It's tough to bet against Cody's Wish.
00:31:56It really is.
00:31:58He's never broke from the one hole.
00:31:59I was just scrolling through his PPs.
00:32:01He's broke from the two hole in one.
00:32:03So I think Junior knows him best.
00:32:05In fact, he hasn't got beat on him since he rode him in a maiden race.
00:32:08He's on a five or six race winning streak with him.
00:32:11So Cody's Wish for the win.
00:32:13As far as Dr. Scheivel is concerned,
00:32:16we're going to show his workout in just a minute,
00:32:18workout of the week.
00:32:19That was a good run in basically a three horse,
00:32:22two horse race for his tightener.
00:32:25He's going to ship across the country.
00:32:27It's a long way to ship.
00:32:29And I think he'll have no problem actually getting the mile distance.
00:32:34It just depends on what kind of trip he's going to get.
00:32:36He's liable to be close to a pretty hot pace in there.
00:32:39But I certainly can't talk you off of Dr. Scheivel for training.
00:32:44Eleventh race on the card, the casino, World Resorts, World Casino,
00:32:48Manhattan, grade one, a mile and a quarter on the turf.
00:32:51And the Naira line maker has kind of stepped out a little bit here,
00:32:55making up the mark, up to the mark, the eight to five morning line favorite.
00:32:59That surprised me a little bit.
00:33:01I don't think anybody in this race deserves to be eight to five.
00:33:04Coming off a win in the turf classic last time out at Churchill Downs,
00:33:07but a little bit of a one race wonder, especially from the buyer standpoint.
00:33:13That was the only time the horse ever broke a hundred,
00:33:15and it was his first ever stakes win for a Rapoli St.
00:33:18Elias stable and Todd Fletcher.
00:33:21When in doubt, a New York turf race, Charles Appleby.
00:33:26He's got two in here.
00:33:28He's got Warren Point and Ottoman Fleet.
00:33:31It looks like Ottoman Fleet is the better of the two.
00:33:34Buick rides him.
00:33:35The other jockey, Richard Mullen, shows up on Warren Point.
00:33:39I mean, everything Charlie Appleby brings over here runs.
00:33:43It looks like the Fort Marcy was used as a prep for this race.
00:33:47The distance shouldn't be any problem.
00:33:49He's coming off a big effort last time out where he got a 102 buyer.
00:33:53I got to go with Charlie Appleby in there, but another interesting race.
00:33:57Red Knight is coming off a win in the Man O' War.
00:33:59Michael Maker is always dangerous with these kind of horses.
00:34:03Yeah, Red Knight in the nine-year-old New York bread,
00:34:06the long grind down from last in the Man O' War.
00:34:09That was a pretty impressive race.
00:34:11Can he build off of that one?
00:34:14Tough question, tough task.
00:34:16At the risk of being Captain Obvious here, Ottoman Fleet,
00:34:20one of the two good orphan horses in here.
00:34:23I think that Fort Marcy sets him up nicely for a run on Saturday in the Manhattan.
00:34:30I went back and forth on Up to the Mark in here.
00:34:32I think if you look at his race two starts back in the Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland,
00:34:38a flat mile, maybe not his optimal distance.
00:34:42Strong rally last time out on the Derby Undercard going nine furlongs.
00:34:46He's just a big stout-chested horse who looks like he's –
00:34:50that effort suggests he can handle 10 furlongs to me.
00:34:52But again, I'm eating some chalk here.
00:34:55Again, trying to avoid the role of Captain Obvious, but Up to the Mark and Ottoman Fleet,
00:35:00tough to get by both of those two in the Manhattan for me.
00:35:03I would argue if both horses weren't already at Belmont Park,
00:35:07if Charlie Appleby was going to run them both, Warren Point and Ottoman Fleet,
00:35:11because is it really fair that jockey Richard Mullen rode Ottoman Fleet in his last start?
00:35:18Now, I know that Bill Buick is the number one rider for Godolphin,
00:35:22but they take Mullen off of a horse he's just won over the track at Belmont Park, rode very well.
00:35:29They put him on Warren Point, and they put Bill Buick on Ottoman Fleet.
00:35:33Is that fair? I mean, am I just going crazy?
00:35:37But Zoe, isn't it an indication that – again, it's kind of an obvious point to make
00:35:43that Appleby thinks Ottoman Fleet is much more likely to win than the other one.
00:35:48I mean, Buick is his guy.
00:35:50I get that, but I mean at the same point, Charlie is a good guy.
00:35:54Mullen's coming in for the ride.
00:35:56It's not like they're just going to run one horse.
00:35:59So Mullen's there. He just won on the horse.
00:36:02He knows the horse.
00:36:04Buick's been on the horse a couple of times.
00:36:06He's winless on the horse. Why not stick with Mullen?
00:36:10I mean, that's just my point.
00:36:12And looking at Warren Point, didn't get the best of rides from Frankie last time out.
00:36:17It was stuck a long way back, was very wide.
00:36:20Everything didn't go his way.
00:36:21So I look to Warren Point to run a much better race.
00:36:24I'm going to use the pair of them.
00:36:27And we want to remind you that the TDN Writers' Room is brought to you by
00:36:30the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association.
00:36:32It's a big upcoming weekend for the Pennsylvania program with two PA breds
00:36:36having big shots on the Belmont weekend.
00:36:38You have Caravelle in the jiper.
00:36:40We talked about her already.
00:36:42Last year's Breeders' Cup turf sprint winner, an Angel of Empire,
00:36:46who was third in the Kentucky Derby, coming back into Belmont
00:36:49and is my pick to win the Belmont Stakes this year.
00:36:53And by the way, Caravelle was originally slated to go to Ascot,
00:36:56but her connections decided to opt for the jiper instead.
00:36:59She won the Intercontinental Stakes on the Belmont weekend last year.
00:37:02And this year, the Breeders' Cup champ returns to Belmont weekend
00:37:05to face the boys in the jiper.
00:37:08We know that Brad Cox is very high on Angel of Empire.
00:37:12Here's what he had to say going into the race.
00:37:15I think he has more to show.
00:37:17We always thought he would get better with the more he does based on pedigree
00:37:20and his physical, and he has.
00:37:22His numbers in the Kentucky Derby went forward,
00:37:24and he's had five weeks to recover from the number.
00:37:26From a physical standpoint, he seems to be continuing to develop,
00:37:29and I've loved what we've seen from him in his work.
00:37:32So that's the take from Brad Cox.
00:37:34And it's going to be a big weekend for Pennsylvania breds
00:37:37with two of their stars going at Belmont Park.
00:37:40And we'll be right back after this message
00:37:42from the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association.
00:37:45The PA Horse Breeders Association presents the Pennsylvania Stallion Series.
00:37:50Six races for PA-sired, PA-bred two-year-olds at parks.
00:37:54Two $100,000 contests at five-and-a-half furlongs
00:37:58on August 21st, PA Day at the Races.
00:38:01September 23rd, PA Derby Day, as two races at six-and-a-half furlongs,
00:38:06both with a $150,000 purse.
00:38:09And in December, two races going long, each worth $200,000.
00:38:13For more, go to pabred.com.
00:38:16The TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by the Green Group,
00:38:18a tax accounting and advisory firm specializing in the urban industry
00:38:22designed to save you taxes.
00:38:26And welcome in now the Green Group guests of the week.
00:38:28Very nice of David O'Rourke during one of the busiest weeks of the year for him.
00:38:32Of course, Belmont Steaks Week.
00:38:34To join us this week on the TDN Writer's Room podcast, David, welcome.
00:38:37And again, thanks for taking some time out of your day.
00:38:40Belmont Steaks Week, a lot to talk about.
00:38:42A new Belmont Park right around the corner, tons to talk about there.
00:38:46But first, I wanted to have you help us with the overview of the Triple Crown itself.
00:38:51As you well know, there's a lot of people now are saying,
00:38:54it's broken, it needs to be fixed.
00:38:56I myself have gone from one camp to the other for the first time.
00:39:00I'm on the bandwagon of it's time to change the spacing of the races.
00:39:03Where does NIRA stand on this?
00:39:05Where does David O'Rourke think about that?
00:39:07The three grade ones for three-year-olds we're talking about right here.
00:39:10And then the fact that we don't have a pattern committee in the United States.
00:39:13I think everything should always be looked at and reexamined,
00:39:17whether it's every year or every three years.
00:39:20And I believe that a pattern committee would do well for the sport in the United States.
00:39:27And I think would help in a lot of other areas, the spacing of the Triple Crown,
00:39:31the spacing of other stakes races around the country and get a more cohesive schedule.
00:39:38So it's a conversation that you would always have to be open to.
00:39:42But I think we're just limiting to just these three races may be a mistake
00:39:46where we should possibly take a look at the entire stake schedule in the U.S.
00:39:51I mean, the fall crop has changed.
00:39:53The dynamics of racing are different than they were 20 years ago.
00:39:57And yeah, I think everything should always be reexamined.
00:40:00So is it fair to say you're at least open to the idea then?
00:40:04To the conversation, of course.
00:40:07Belmont isn't an ideal situation, Dave,
00:40:09where you don't have the quick two-week turnaround that the Preakness does.
00:40:13You have three weeks.
00:40:14So an awful lot of horses will run in the derby and then come back five weeks later and run in the Belmont.
00:40:22So I'm not sure it really affects Belmont Park and Naira quite as much as perhaps it might do the other tracks.
00:40:29But what would you think about having certain grade ones like every Saturday once a month?
00:40:36Because there could be a fantastic order, like you mentioned,
00:40:39like pattern races where you have it drawn out throughout the country and everybody agrees on the same thing.
00:40:45I think that would be a very logical thing for our sport here in the U.S. to consider and at least look at.
00:40:53In terms of the Triple Crown, I mean, there's reasons for the spacing originally.
00:40:59It's a challenge. It's very hard.
00:41:01Obviously, one of the hardest accomplishments in sports.
00:41:04So I wouldn't be the one to opine on it.
00:41:07I don't think I'm qualified in that sense.
00:41:09But I do think everything should be open for discussion.
00:41:12I think that's fair.
00:41:14You've been with Naira since 2008.
00:41:17What are some of your fondest memories of the Triple Crown?
00:41:21Because I was there for Justify.
00:41:23I was there for American Pharoah.
00:41:25And there have been some fabulous losses as well.
00:41:27Do you remember a favorite Triple Crown Belmont race that really if someone asks you,
00:41:33what are you going to say?
00:41:34What was it going to be?
00:41:36It was rags to riches.
00:41:38And I think that was before I was actually even an employee here.
00:41:40That would be my first one.
00:41:42It was just cool.
00:41:44And that was some of the early impressions I had of the sport.
00:41:47So that one always sticks out.
00:41:48And then, of course, to see two Triple Crowns, it's amazing.
00:41:51Pharoah, that's just an experience unto itself.
00:41:54But yeah, rags to riches would be one of my answers.
00:41:57Dave, going back maybe 10 years or so ago, right about the time that maybe you started with Naira,
00:42:03if you didn't have a horse going for the Triple Crown, quite frankly, the Belmont could be a little bit of a dud.
00:42:08And that has changed.
00:42:10You haven't had a horse go for the Triple Crown in the last several years.
00:42:13But something shifted.
00:42:15And with or without a Triple Crown horse, this is a huge day now.
00:42:19It's a huge event.
00:42:21You're going to get a huge audience.
00:42:23You're going to get a lot of enthusiastic people out there.
00:42:25What has caused that shift?
00:42:27What has Naira, frankly, done right to make that happen?
00:42:30I mean, on that one, I have to give a lot of credit to Martin Panza when he was here.
00:42:34And he kind of realigned a lot of our stakes and focusing on big days.
00:42:38And Belmont was one of his big concepts to move the Met mile, for instance.
00:42:44And it's paid off well.
00:42:46It was the right move.
00:42:48It was a risky move to make at the time.
00:42:51And, yeah, we still applaud it because you're right.
00:42:54It has worked.
00:42:56And it has helped us in the years where you don't have a Triple Crown.
00:42:59And there's so many other races on this card.
00:43:02It's borderline overwhelming.
00:43:04I guess I can't convince you to move the Met mile back to Memorial Day then?
00:43:11We can leave that to the pattern.
00:43:14Right. Okay.
00:43:17So you've just had the entries for, basically, Belmont Stakes weekend.
00:43:22What one race are you most looking forward to other than the Belmont Stakes?
00:43:26Because there is an absolutely terrific card racing on Saturday and Friday leading up to it.
00:43:32I tend to gravitate towards the turf racing.
00:43:36The Gold Cup is always an interesting one for me.
00:43:38It's just different.
00:43:39It's a different style.
00:43:40We don't see much over here.
00:43:42Spinderella, the New York Braid coming back.
00:43:44It's just a game.
00:43:45That's an interesting one.
00:43:47On Thursday, the Wonder again.
00:43:51I'd have a better answer, a more educated answer for you, probably Thursday morning.
00:43:56As I can get into these cards.
00:43:58Because right now, we're prepping.
00:44:03The Handicapping the night before is actually one of the things I learned as I got into this business and this game.
00:44:11And I find it kind of a really cool exercise that's relaxing in a way, as odd as that might sound.
00:44:18One day at a time.
00:44:19One of the things that I am most looking forward to is hearing Tom Durkin come back to call four races on Fox Sports that you've all teamed up with to cover the Belmont Stakes.
00:44:31Can you talk a little bit about that and what it took to bring Tom back in the booth?
00:44:35I gather he's been practicing.
00:44:37I'd have to give all the credit on Fox.
00:44:39It was their idea.
00:44:40Specifically, I believe Mike Mulvihill over in Fox.
00:44:44I believe was.
00:44:46Yeah, they approached Tom, Tony Alivato.
00:44:50And I don't know how they did it, but I'm really glad they did.
00:44:55Yeah, it's absolutely terrific.
00:44:58David, let's switch gears now and talk about the other big subject.
00:45:01The future of Belmont Park and the Belmont Stakes.
00:45:05Great news for Naira.
00:45:06You got the state to approve the loan that you've been working on for a couple of years so that we can now move forward and build a new Belmont Park.
00:45:13And frankly, that will also mean, as we know, the last of Aqueduct.
00:45:17Can you just sort of give us a time schedule, a time frame for what's going to happen when and what are we going to see over the next year or two?
00:45:27So right now we're in the master planning slash programming phase.
00:45:30And then over the summer, an overview of the plans, we will supply that to the FOB, who is essentially the landlord for our property.
00:45:38And that's when cues on on the project really start to get into the public sphere.
00:45:46Ideally, we'd like to have the project completed for the 2026 Belmont.
00:45:51Now that I'm saying that before we've gone deep into the planning and the staging, but that is our goal entering into the process.
00:46:00And what does that mean for when you would leave Belmont Park?
00:46:04When would you have to abandon racing at Belmont so that they're going to be construction 365 days a year or close to it?
00:46:12We're set or we are understanding right now is that we will be at Aqueduct for the falls going forward.
00:46:18And the real question is.
00:46:21How do we work in the springtime turf is a really valuable commodity for our circuit.
00:46:25So I don't have good answers for you that until we get into the to the professional start laying out some timelines and.
00:46:33We'd like to get the project done as quickly as possible. We have to also think about the continuity of our circuit horsemen here.
00:46:40So there's a lot of balance that will be played out.
00:46:43We'll have better answers towards mid the end of summer.
00:46:48What's this going to mean for future Belmont's during the construction process?
00:46:53I'll have that answer in the middle of the summer.
00:46:58All right, well, let's talk about the physical size of Belmont Park. I believe right now it's almost 29 acres and I it seems like you're going to make it a whole lot smaller, maybe to six or seven acres. How's that gonna come?
00:47:13So the and you've probably all heard this building, including the basement is 1.3 million square feet. It's massive.
00:47:20Yeah, buildings targeted roughly 275,000 square feet. So you just think about a footprint of one fifth the size centered on really where the clubhouse is now would be much narrower.
00:47:33And it's going to give us the opportunity to open up lots of green space as well as the infield.
00:47:40So, in terms of the aesthetics of the building, that's TBD. In terms of property itself, park-like, that's the concepts going in areas for families and kids and you could never recreate the backyard in Saratoga. It's unique to itself.
00:48:01But what that has done for racing, at least in my perception, in my 15 years, I admit, I can't count how many people that got into this game, starting out in that backyard.
00:48:12Now, this is downstate New York, so the market's slightly different. But we're on the edge of New York City. And this will be a beautiful venue with a park-like features that flow through where you see the grandstand that will be opened up and then it will flow right into the infield.
00:48:31So, conceptually, that's where we're going. And I think it's going to be really good for the game, really good for the younger fans and to work on the next generation.
00:48:41I think Zoe let you off the hook a little bit too easily on the 2025 Belmont, because that would be the one that obviously would be to be determined if you follow that time schedule.
00:48:53Could you at least discuss one of the various possibilities? I mean, in the 60s, when the current Belmont was being built, they raced at Aqueduct.
00:49:02I mean, at this point, I understand you don't have any firm plans, but you must in your mind or in executive meetings, at least been exploring some possibilities. What might they be?
00:49:13Well, Zoe, you're correct on the Aqueduct. There's Saratoga. And then there's Belmont itself. But the likelihood in 2025 to get to actually do that on the property, you'd be looking at something in the infield. I know they did it in Arlington years ago.
00:49:30There's three tracks, there's three possibilities. Don't have a definitive answer yet. Some of the reaction to that might actually help me steer us in the direction that everybody wants.
00:49:43Well, not that my vote counts for much, but I say a Belmont at Saratoga would be wild and very interesting.
00:49:50That might send a benchmark that would be hard to match because that would be so unique. But yeah, that would be really cool. There's no doubt on that from a fan perspective.
00:50:01Absolutely. David, another question about the new Belmont Park. Obviously, the grandstand now is something from a very different era when we used to get 35,000 people on a Saturday.
00:50:11It's great for Belmont Stakes Day and the rest of the year. It's just obviously way too big. A smaller grandstand. How do you make a building that fits both needs, the Thursday afternoon crowd and the Belmont Stakes crowd when a son of into mischief in 2029 is going to try to win the Triple Crown?
00:50:33As part of the project, a lot of the infrastructure will be set for scaling up specifically for Belmont Day and Breeders' Cup. That's kind of the large event capacity. And there's programming. There's certain levels of inventory you need for these types of events.
00:50:50Obviously, we're going to have tons of space. The capacity is not going down. That's part of the project. What do we need when we scale up and how do we do that efficiently? The more you invest in the front end, the more efficient you can deploy it. It's more cost effective and smoother and a better experience for the fans.
00:51:10For instance, Ascot, the tenting that they have there is actually wonderful. Breeders' Cup does a very good job with it. We're looking at that and what kind of infrastructure put into the ground so we can scale up for exactly what you're asking.
00:51:24What will it mean to get the Breeders' Cup back at Belmont?
00:51:29It's going to be huge. It's huge for our horsemen. They haven't been able to run on their home track in quite a long time. I think it would be good. I think it would be good for the Breeders' Cup. It would be great for New York racing.
00:51:39It's easier for the Euros to get over here. We're closer, obviously. I think it would be a great event. The building will be winterized and the weather will be less of a factor. Here, a lot of it was the shadow is part of our issue as you get deep into the fall. That's obviously going to be calculated into the building.
00:52:09David, that's very interesting. The first time I've heard that, we remember the incident with Dejord jumping the shadow back at Belmont Park all these years ago. How would that work? How would you fix it that that's no longer a factor?
00:52:21It's actually not too hard because this building is so big and the overhang over the seating. I don't think there's any way we would reach that height.
00:52:32They do shadow studies as we work on the project. The architects are keyed in on that. It's really important, actually, as you start to look at going year-round, specifically on the main track.
00:52:46Another question about the future as we go forward. Right now, you have the three tracks and the schedule with Aqueduct Belmont and Saratoga has worked out very nicely. Saratoga is as popular as ever. When you are down to the two tracks, will it be the same schedule for Saratoga with Belmont filling all the rest of the dates that Aqueduct took up, or could this lead to an expansion of the Saratoga meet?
00:53:11Going into this, it would be the former, but that's going into it. In terms of the characteristics of the meet, we are installing a synthetic at Belmont. How we run the winter meet, in terms of as a synthetic meet, or are we marrying the synthetic with the main track, which would be winterized, these are things that are on the table.
00:53:37We'll get more clarity as we move forward, but it's a very good question.
00:53:42What do you see the future of racing with synthetic tracks? We went through this in Southern California. They put them in. They perhaps weren't installed quite the right way and all the same at the different tracks, but it seems like right now in this day and age, a lot of people are leaning more towards synthetic tracks. It's great for you guys in New York because of the winter meets.
00:54:06There's a lot of tradition with the dirt racing, obviously, in the United States. I think with safety, you can't compromise. You go where the data leads you. Now that we have ISO and we have the ability to have uniform rules, now we can just let the data lead us to where we need to be.
00:54:27If you look at U.S. racing, it's a worldwide sport. The statistics for the sport are incredible. We can benchmark ourselves and best practices. I'm not an expert on tracks. Glenn Kozak could speak better to this.
00:54:45I think now that as of last week, we have a national regulatory body. I believe it's going to accelerate the process of implementing changes. These changes, I feel, need to be just data-driven. Safety first, period. That's my opinion.
00:55:09Dave, before we let you go, how good a handicapper are you and who's going to win the Belmont?
00:55:17Forte, play defensive, and then I would key Forte in either exactives and trifectas and put some value underneath. I like hit show. I like Red Route 1, Angel of Empire. I was going to put it underneath Forte. Try and get some value onto the ticket.
00:55:32David O'Rourke, once again, thanks so much for spending some time with us, taking some time out of your busy day. Exciting week for Belmont Park and the future of Belmont Park. We get that new Grandstand up in a couple of years. Very great news for New York racing. Thanks again and have a wonderful Belmont Day.
00:55:47Thank you for having me.
00:55:48As the Green Group Guest of the Week, David O'Rourke will receive a free one-hour free tax consultation with the Green Group. For more information on how the Green Group can save you taxes, visit GreenCo.com. We'll be right back after this message from the Green Group.
00:56:18Over the past 40 years, the Green Group founder, Len Green, has owned and bred some of the best racehorses in the history of the sport, like Eclipse Award-winning champions Jay Walk and Wonder Wheel. His DJ stable competes at the highest level and has received the game's most prestigious honors.
00:56:35Len Green's in-depth, hands-on industry knowledge combined with cutting-edge tax-saving strategies has produced positive results for his clientele and has made the Green Group the top-rated accounting and tax firm in the thoroughbred business. For a confidential and complimentary consultation, contact us at 732-634-5100 or visit our website at www.greenco.com. The Green Group. Proven strategies to save you taxes.
00:57:05The Green Group.
00:57:35The TDN Rises Room is brought to you by XBTV. The XBTV Work of the Week is Dr. Scheivel, who will be running in the Met Mile this coming weekend, draws post position number three. He went six furlongs on Saturday in 113 flat for trainer Mark Glatt. On the inside of him is the maiden and big baby. And just take a look at Dr. Scheivel. If you have concerns that he won't be able to get a mile distance, take a look again.
00:58:02This is a very, very good work with a strong gallop out for the son of violence, who was a grade one winner at two and also a grade one winner at three. This year, at five, he was third in the grade one Dubai Golden Shaheen and won an allowance race a last time out. And guys, I'm going to step out. I am out of here. I've got to run. I will see you next week. TD, thanks so much for joining us.
00:58:27All right. Good luck. Happy Belmont Day, Zoe.
00:58:29Thanks, guys.
00:58:30Well, TD, let's dive in now to the other big story that has dominated racing, not just last week, but throughout the Triple Crown campaign. It's obviously the problems that Churchill Downs with the 12 breakdowns, the fatalities and in some of the words covers that I've done in the TD and I've used the word crisis.
00:58:49And I don't think that's hyperbole or an exaggeration is indeed a crisis. But the big story last week was the announcement by Churchill Downs that they're suspending racing at Churchill as of this weekend and are moving it to Ellis Park.
00:59:03And I'm going to be honest. At first, I really thought this was a bad idea for a number of reasons, one of which was if you're going to continue to train at Churchill, how can you send out the message that perhaps the track is unsafe or we're worried enough about the track that we're going to move it racing to Churchill Downs?
00:59:22Excuse me, Ellis Park. And also the idea that you they ran last weekend at Churchill. So they say, OK, we're moving to Ellis Park. And also, I thought that maybe it didn't send the right message that, you know, maybe the message was to say we're, you know, continue to say we're confident that the track is fine and to kind of just ride out the storm.
00:59:44But as the story developed, I started to think more about I think they did the right thing, because, I mean, obviously, this is about optics and about public relations. And some people will scoff at that and say, you know, that's not what you should be most worried about. I tell you what, you should be worried about that.
01:00:01You know, horse racing needs to send the message to its critics and to the public at large that they are doing everything possible. And this was a move on Churchill's part to say, hey, you know, we're going to do everything we can and we're going to turn over every rock and we're going to take every step possible. And, you know, that it's now become a cliche, but an abundance of caution.
01:00:26So I get it. I understand why they did it. And of course, you know, now we're just going to keep our fingers crossed that everything is run safely at Ellis Park.
01:00:36Well, I think you're right in that it's a crisis. I mean, anytime 12 horses lose their lives, that can be termed a crisis. I think you're right that it's about optics. But the question for me when I try and get my head around this is, whose optics are we talking about here? The optics for the greater good of the sport or the corporate optics for Churchill Downs Incorporated?
01:01:02Now, remember, everybody watching this podcast and everybody involved in our little corner of the world, you know, this is a racing and a horse health issue. And like it or not, a large gaming corporation, publicly traded gaming corporation like Churchill Downs, they also have some other aspects to consider here.
01:01:20And Churchill Downs, like almost every other major corporation in America, they have a risk management vice president. It's a person who's pretty high up on their masthead. And that person's job and presumably his team are to swap back any type of things that could hurt the brand, could hurt the stock price.
01:01:41And I think it would be naive to think, you know, I think while we all want horse health and safety to be centric and at the fore of the argument, I think it would be naive to think that there are some other things going into the equation at the corporate level at Churchill Downs.
01:01:56We don't, you know, we have to take them at their word because Churchill Downs as a corporation speaks largely through press releases and statements. We don't get a lot of back and forth. We're certainly not going to get a back and forth interview, I don't think, with their vice president of risk management.
01:02:11And when you look at how they arrived at this decision, they had last week, a veterinary summit at their track that lasted over a couple of days. They made a couple of recommendations, which seemed to be smart recommendations that they announced on Thursday.
01:02:25Then all of a sudden on Friday, the script was flipped. It was all of a sudden we're going out to Ellis Park. Late on Friday, I talked to Mick Peterson, who's the director of the racing services testing laboratory in Lexington, Kentucky. He's one of the foremost experts on track safety. They also brought in another independent expert, Dennis Moore.
01:02:47Both of those gentlemen said, we can't find anything. Mick Peterson went over the Churchill surface before the meet and after the derby. Dennis Moore had been there for a few days last week. I'm not sure if he's still there continuing his work.
01:03:00Horstman, in general, did not have complaints about the surface. And now all of a sudden, we're going to up and move a couple of hundred miles out to the western part of the state to a track that has been dormant since last summer. Mick Peterson said that it's routine for his team to go in and do pre-meet assessments at various tracks. And Ellis Park is one of them.
01:03:24They had that assessment scheduled, but they expedited it. But at some point overnight from last Thursday into Friday, the decision got made to switch everything out to Ellis. So that's going to quell the public perception risk at the corporate level for Churchill Downs.
01:03:43But are there not risks in moving the racing away from a track where you've had experts vet it out and say, it's okay. The Horstman aren't complaining. Now we're going to go out and while we're still training over the Churchill surface, race at Ellis Park, which hasn't hosted a meet for whatever it is, 8 or 9 months since last summer.
01:04:05And Mick Peterson's team hadn't been able to evaluate the track prior to that. I presume they're doing that now or they have done it already. But there is a risk in doing that as well. And I think that's one of the things you have to consider.
01:04:18And to your point, somebody pointed out to me that the press release came out 5 o'clock on Friday. Now think of the timing. That's half an hour after the stock market closes on Friday afternoon. And then there's not going to be any stock activity till the following Monday. And we know that Churchill Downs, obviously the stock price is very, very important to them.
01:04:39Another thing that kind of went unexplained in this was the role of Hyza in this. Earlier in the week, I think it was Monday or Tuesday, Lisa Lazarus met with the media on a Zoom call. And she was asked point blank, do you think that they should shut down the meet or hit the pause button or whatnot? And her answer was no, for a lot of the reasons you just said, because the Horstman and the experts are telling us that the track is fine.
01:05:04So if the track is fine, we're not going to recommend that we shut the meet down. Or, you know, nobody had even thought of the Ellis Park thing at that point. Then when the press releases come, I mean, press releases were flying last Friday.
01:05:19And one including one from Hyza. And there was a total 180 there. They now said we recommended to Churchill Downs that they do this. Now, they can't force Churchill to shut down the meet. They could take away their simulcasting signal, but they have no authority to shut down a meet. So what happened there? And I don't know the answer. But and what happened there? And how much pressure did Hyza maybe put on Churchill to do this?
01:05:45I don't know the answer either. I didn't report on that. So I don't have any any insights other than what you just said there. But, you know, let's face it, Churchill Downs, Incorporated, as a gaming company that controls five tracks, thoroughbred tracks in this country, a lot of entities and racing commissions and committees recommend things to them, and they don't follow them.
01:06:09A lot of people recommended don't sell Arlington Park. And, you know, the corporation calls their own shots. So I don't know if I don't know how that that Hyza recommendation came through the pipeline, or if it did come through the pipeline or how the message got shifted. But at the end, Churchill Downs, Incorporated is going to have to live with the decision one way or the other. They're the ones that make the call. So they can't. I don't think it would be genuine for them to say, well, they were forced or coaxed or nudged into this decision.
01:06:38It's up to them eventually.
01:07:08You know, no more just talking about it. The it's obvious that synthetic tracks are safer. And again, we're in a crisis mode now. And we need to tell the public that we are doing everything possible to keep these horses as safe as can be. And if you're going to do that, don't you have to go to synthetic tracks? It's a controversial subject. I agreed with Earl Mac. I wrote a kind of a follow up to his column.
01:07:38And, you know, the statistics don't lie. In 2022, horses were three and a half times more likely to die in a dirt race than they were in a synthetic surface race. So if we're going to look everybody in the eye, our critics, the public at large, and tell them that we're doing everything we can, then don't we have to at least begin to look at this situation?
01:08:07I know it would cause tremendous upheaval in the stallion market. But, you know, this sport, we need it to be here 50 years from now. And, you know, for the first time in as long as I've been involved in racing, I'm not sure we can say that it is going to be here 50 years from now, or even it's gonna be here 25 years from now. So I don't think there's any half measures here. Let's do everything in our power.
01:08:30Therefore, I'm among those that are advocating as drastic and draconian as a step as it may be. Dirt racing has to end in this country and has to replace by synthetic surface racing.
01:08:41You know, and one thing to that point is, if people look back at, you know, the technology advances so much. We were already one generation removed from when, you know, 20 years ago when California mandated in synthetic tracks at all of its major racetracks.
01:08:58The composition and the maintenance and the upkeep of synthetic tracks in that era, that was the first iteration, more or less. I know Turfway Park tried it a little bit before then, and they had synthetic at other venues as well. But that California experiment was the first iteration really on a larger scale.
01:09:20And the first iteration of anything is rarely the one that sticks. Other people, you know, you have to fail a little bit for things to get better. So I think the composition of the synthetics and what we know about them and what we understand about them has evolved in leaps and bounds.
01:09:36So if you're going to use what happened in California as your benchmark and say, well, we went through this and we had to switch back to dirt, that's probably not a great comparison. You have to think that there is going to be some advancements in it.
01:09:46On the other side of the argument is I don't think you ever want to be making, you know, it's a crisis point right now. And I don't know if crises are the best time to be making these types of decisions.
01:10:00You know, we see that Naira is going to be installing the synthetic track in Belmont and Gulfstream recently installed a synthetic track. They didn't have to make those decisions under duress.
01:10:10And I think that's when the best decisions are made when you're not faced with an immediate crisis. And what do we have to do? And it should be all for what is best about the horse, not what is best about public relations and public perception.
01:10:24So I think that we do have to take a hard look at it and keep in mind that things have changed and they've changed technologically for the better and they've changed for what is acceptable for doing business out there.
01:10:37I mean, this is one of those hot button issues that brings up passionate arguments from both sides. And I'm going to try to simplify it to a point that I think everybody can understand. And I don't see how people can disagree with me.
01:10:50If we were to convert to synthetic surface races, we would save the lives of hundreds of horses a year.
01:10:57So please can somebody I'm not asking you, T.D., but in the people that say you're wrong about synthetic surfaces, how do they respond to that? I don't know what possibly their answer can be.
01:11:08Again, we go to synthetic surfaces. We save the lives of hundreds of horses a year. How is that a bad idea?
01:11:15Again, you're not a synthetic critic, but I just I shake my head when that point doesn't seem to resonate with people or some people anyways.
01:11:27Well said.
01:11:29The TDN Stallion of the Week is Honor AP, the son of Honor Code 1, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, is a three-year-old defeating an eventual horse of the year authentic.
01:11:38His first yearlings will hit the sales ring this summer and he stands for $15,000 this year at Lane's End. Why don't you check out Honor AP, this week's Stallion of the Week brought to you by Lane's End.
01:11:51Honor AP, a mesmerizing horse from the very beginning, who captured the imagination of the racing world and proved his potential on the track.
01:12:02A Grade 1 winner, out of a multiple Grade 1 winner, with incomparable looks and an unbeatable pedigree.
01:12:10The speed, the bloodline, the physical. Honor AP, only at Lane's End.
01:12:21All the thrills.
01:12:26Fraction of the bills.
01:12:31Experience the power of the partnership.
01:12:36Change your life, make new friends, and compete at the highest level of thoroughbred racing.
01:12:43West Point Thoroughbreds, the gold standard in racing partnerships. Visit westpointtb.com.
01:13:13Good luck to all our connections on a big weekend at Belmont. Are you interested in joining a West Point partnership? Just visit westpointtb.com and click on Available Horses.
01:13:43Our editors, Leo LaRocca and Nathan Wilkinson. Have a great Belmont Stakes weekend, everybody. We'll talk to you next week.