Met Office Monday Afternoon Forecast 07/10/2024
07 October - National weather forecast presented by Alex Deakin.
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00:00A bit of sunshine, lots of showers and a few thunderstorms.
00:04It's a lively start to a pretty active week of weather.
00:08The bigger picture from space shows a swirl of clouds
00:11heading out to the west.
00:13And further out west, this is Hurricane Kirk,
00:18soon to be an ex-hurricane, but still likely to pack a punch.
00:22The most likely track of this storm system
00:24is now to the south of the UK and across France.
00:27More on that in a moment.
00:28But let's deal with this low pressure, first of all,
00:30because this will dominate our weather
00:32for the next couple of days, sitting out west
00:34and just throwing showers up across the UK.
00:37More persistent rain across northern Scotland,
00:39dull and damp one across Aberdeenshire,
00:40Caithness and Sutherland and Orkney today.
00:43But further south, we should see some sunny spells
00:45for Northern Ireland, central parts of Scotland.
00:48Southern Scotland may stay fairly glum.
00:50And further south for England and Wales,
00:51be prepared for showers, some heavy showers
00:54moving through fairly smartly, but some big downpours
00:57are possible.
00:58But equally, we will see some sunshine too.
01:01The sunshine tends to disappear in the far southwest
01:03as we see some heavier bursts of rain
01:05coming into Cornwall later on.
01:07Temperature-wise, well, when the sun's out,
01:09it's feeling pleasant enough for the time of year,
01:1116, 17, maybe 18 or 19 in one or two spots,
01:14but feeling cooler when the showers come along
01:16and a fairly brisk, gusty wind blowing
01:19around the coast of Wales and southwest England.
01:21And then we see this heavier rain
01:23working its way northwards from Cornwall into Devon,
01:26then into South Wales for the evening rush hour
01:29and spreading some heavy thundery showers
01:31further east as well.
01:32We do have a Met Office yellow thunderstorm warning in place,
01:35some heavy downpours, likely hail and lightning,
01:39also likely to potentially cause some disruptions.
01:42So do watch out for those thundery showers
01:45across the south and the west overnight.
01:47As we go through the evening, the showers further north
01:49should tend to fade.
01:50We'll have a zone of cloudier weather
01:52drifting north across Scotland, and always across the far
01:54north, staying cloudy.
01:56Notice here the wind's coming down from the north,
01:58so on the cool side here, but elsewhere,
02:01the wind's generally coming up from the south.
02:02So quite a mild night with all the cloud,
02:04with some clearer skies in southern Scotland.
02:06We may dip down into single figures.
02:08Still showers around though for Tuesday,
02:11and again, still some of them packing a punch,
02:13some heavy thundery showers.
02:15You can see the low pressure sitting out here,
02:17just throwing those showers up
02:19across South Wales, southern England.
02:21Thicker cloud, a more persistent rain
02:23across the east of Northern Ireland, southeast Scotland,
02:25far northeast of England.
02:27That rain could start to build up
02:29as we go through Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
02:31And the rain tended to fizzle out a little bit
02:34across northern Scotland.
02:35But the northerly winds aren't fizzling out.
02:37If anything, they're getting a little bit stronger.
02:39So southwesterly winds in the southwest,
02:42northeasterly winds in the northeast.
02:45They will be bringing the cooler air further south,
02:47and temperatures struggling a little bit
02:49across northern Scotland, 11, 12 at best.
02:51Further south, we could again,
02:53when the sun's out between the showers,
02:55get up into the high teens,
02:57but feeling cooler when the downpours come along.
03:00The northerly winds will eventually win out,
03:02but we'll see more of these showers
03:04as this low pressure continues to swirl in
03:07across the UK during Tuesday evening,
03:09and probably still around on Wednesday too.
03:12So this low pressure dominating for the next few days.
03:14We do need to keep our eyes on Kirk.
03:17This won't be a hurricane by this stage,
03:19but it is still packing a punch.
03:21Wet and windy conditions sitting northern Spain,
03:23northern Portugal before the low pressure system
03:26then heads its way into France,
03:28bringing some very gusty winds for northern Spain,
03:31northern Portugal, and then into France later in the week
03:34before it turns northwards,
03:35bringing a lot of heavy rain and gusty winds
03:37across northern France and the low countries,
03:40and then heading up across Germany.
03:41So likely now to stay to the south of the UK,
03:43but one thing Kirk does as it moves away
03:46is it allows northerly winds and the UK
03:48to turn quite a lot colder come Thursday and Friday.
03:51You can check out our full week ahead YouTube video.
03:55That'll be available on Monday afternoon.