Tuesday evening forecast 31/10/23
31 October - National weather forecast presented by Alex Deakin.
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00:00Storm Chiron is intensifying out in the Atlantic and it's going to bring us
00:05problems during Wednesday night and Thursday. We have issued amber weather
00:10warnings across parts of the south for the strength of the wind. Here's the
00:13bigger picture, the view from space earlier on Tuesday. This massive cloud
00:16heading in isn't the storm system, that is still way out in the Atlantic. Not
00:22much on Tuesday afternoon but as we go through Tuesday night and into Wednesday
00:26it starts to intensify, particularly through the early hours, the isobars
00:30just popping out of it. That's when that storm is really intensifying, undergoing
00:35what we call rapid cyclogenesis or explosive cyclogenesis and developing as
00:40it approaches the southwest into a potent storm with a lot of isobars
00:45suggesting the winds are going to be very strong. Still a bit of uncertainty
00:48about the exact track but the strongest winds in the southwestern quadrant of
00:53the storm system will be picking up through Wednesday night and into
00:57Thursday and spreading across much of the south. Let's rewind and focus in on
01:02those wind gusts. Ahead of it the winds will be picking up on Wednesday night in
01:06the southwest and spreading along the south coast but the strongest gusts in
01:10the southwestern quarter. That's where the strongest gusts are going to be and
01:14you can imagine if this storm is a little further north these stronger
01:17gusts will be more over the land. So that's why we have to keep our eye on
01:22this storm system potentially packing a significant punch and then those very
01:26strong winds moving along the south coast and getting squeezed perhaps
01:30there through the English Channel as we head through Thursday afternoon and into
01:34the evening. By which time notice the winds are really eased across Wales and
01:38southwest England. So let's take a look at the wind warnings. Amber warnings
01:43issued on Tuesday morning for southwest England and southwest Wales and then
01:47another one along the south coast of England. In the amber warning areas gusts
01:53of 60, 70, 80 miles an hour. In some very exposed places depending on the exact
01:58track and intensity of the storm we could see those winds gusting a little
02:02more than 80 miles an hour. We have a broader yellow warning for gusts of 50
02:07to 60 miles an hour. Again perhaps more in some spots particularly coasts and
02:12hills. Those kind of winds are likely to cause some problems. Structural damage so
02:16bringing tiles down, bringing trees down. That's going to create some flying
02:20debris. Expect disruption to the transport network and another issue will
02:24be very large waves along the coast. There's lots of advice on the Met Office
02:29website about what you can do to prepare for a storm system. So just take note of
02:34that if you are in these warning areas. There the wind warnings but it's not
02:38just about the winds because it's been so very wet recently. More rain to come
02:42from this storm likely to cause further issues. So we have yellow rain warnings
02:47in place. Again check out the Met Office app or website for full details on those
02:52weather warnings. Meanwhile let's get back to Tuesday night because there is
02:56some more heavy rain to come across Northern Ireland. It was a very wet
02:59Monday night. Some more rain here likely to cause some further issues. The rain
03:03spreading into southern Scotland across northern England. Heavy showers following
03:06through England and Wales and the winds picking up as well particularly also
03:10along the south coast making for quite a mild night here. Another chilly one in
03:13northern Scotland though perhaps not quite as cold as it was on Monday night.
03:18The rain likely to get quite heavy for a time across the southeast on Wednesday
03:22morning accompanied by some gusty winds. So not great for the morning rush hour
03:26here. A lot of spray surface water along with those blustery winds. The rain
03:29easing in Northern Ireland through the morning but it doesn't ease in Scotland.
03:33So a very different day here on Wednesday compared to Tuesday. Heavy
03:37outbreaks of rain spreading slowly northwards. There'll be some snow on the hills
03:41although nothing too unusual about that. And then we're left with a mixture of
03:44sunshine and heavy showers for most places by the afternoon. The showers
03:49though should tend to zip through because it will be fairly breezy. That
03:52breeze will bring a cooler feel as well. Temperatures technically
03:56higher across parts of Scotland compared to Tuesday but not feeling very pleasant
04:01because of the yet wind and the rain. Further south will just about squeak
04:05into the teens with a bit of sunshine. But it'll feel cooler as the winds
04:08strengthen and they're going to strengthen further on Wednesday night
04:12because that is when Storm Kieran arrives spreading up from the southwest.
04:16A wet and windy spell here before we get to midnight. And then look at that.
04:20You can see the storm system here just spiraling in these bands of rain.
04:24If you get stuck under that band of rain it's going to produce quite a lot of
04:26rain building up over the course of Thursday. And then the gusty winds
04:31picking up along the south coast but particularly from the period from dawn
04:34to lunchtime across parts of southwest Wales and southwest England.
04:39And then those winds continue to strengthen right along the south coast
04:42and potentially squeezing up there through the English Channel.
04:46Potentially damaging gusts of wind. And it's a washing machine kind of day
04:50isn't it for England Wales and eastern parts of Scotland. The rain also
04:54affecting the east of Northern Ireland. Parts of western Northern Ireland
04:57and northwest Scotland may be wondering what all the fuss is about because
05:00here could be a dry and a bright day on Thursday. But elsewhere far from
05:03dry and bright as we are fully under the influence of storm Ciarán and
05:08temperatures as a result will be down 10 or 11 degrees and generally feeling
05:12a lot colder than that. So not a very pleasant start to November at all
05:17with a storm system coming in over the next couple of days. Please do check
05:21out the Met Office warnings on the app and on the website and subscribe
05:25to our YouTube channel. And as it says there you'll never miss an update.