Wednesday morning forecast 01/11/23
01 November – National weather forecast presented by Alex Deakin.
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00:00Good morning. As you probably know, Storm Ciarán is arriving tonight and we have
00:05Met Office amber wind warnings in place for tomorrow. We'll go through those in
00:10just a moment. Because we actually have weather warnings in place this morning
00:13it's been another wet night across Northern Ireland. Wet and windy
00:16conditions across the southeast. Pretty grim on the roads here this morning with
00:20a lot of spray and surface water. The weather for today is broadly sunshine
00:24and showers. The main exception being Scotland where it'll be a much wetter day
00:27compared to yesterday with some snow on the hills. Then we'll see the showers
00:31developing elsewhere. Tending to move through on a fairly brisk wind. But the
00:35showers will be heavy when they come along. And then there'll be a little bit
00:38of sunshine in between those downpours. And when the sun's out temperatures will
00:42stumble into the low teens. But feeling cooler certainly with that wet and windy
00:47weather across Northern Scotland. And feeling cooler as the winds start to
00:51strengthen. And that is the first sign that Storm Ciarán is on the way. The
00:56winds really strengthening in the southwest through this afternoon and
00:59into this evening. Here is that storm system. It's been intensifying way out
01:04in the Atlantic overnight. But it's still picking up strength as we go through
01:09this morning. The isobars still popping out of it. Reaching peak intensity later
01:14today out to the southwest. But then arriving on our shores tonight. And then
01:19lingering through much of Thursday. Even hasn't fully cleared by Friday. Look at
01:23the number of isobars on the chart. Really squeezing together here on its
01:27southern flank. Still a bit of a question mark because exactly how far
01:31north or how far south it goes. And that is crucial in determining exactly where
01:36the strongest winds will be. If we rewind and look at the winds likely to
01:42be generated from this storm system. They really pick up this evening across the
01:45south coast. But then intensify further as the storm itself heads into southern
01:51England. In the southwestern quarter of the storm. Really gusty conditions.
01:55Perhaps for parts of Pembrokeshire. But particularly down across southwest
01:58England. And into northern France and the Channel Isles. But then as the storm
02:02heads its way further east. Those strong winds transfer along the south coast. We
02:08could see a real squeeze there through the English Channel. So the warnings we
02:12have in place. The AMBOLT warnings for tomorrow. Gusts of 70 to maybe 80 miles
02:17an hour. Perhaps even a little more in some exposed places. In the southwestern
02:21corner. Really on Thursday morning. But then strengthening through the day along
02:26the south coast. A little further east. We do have a yellow broader weather
02:31warning. Remember there is still a bit of uncertainty. If the storm is a little
02:34further north. These warning areas could change. But in this yellow warning area.
02:39Gusts even in land of 50 miles an hour. And certainly 60. Or maybe a little bit
02:43more on some coasts and hills. What do those numbers mean? Well certainly we're
02:48expecting some very large waves from this storm system. As it moves in. Likely
02:52to cause some structural damage. Bringing branches down. Damage to buildings.
02:56Creating flying debris. And we are expecting disruption to the transport
03:01network. As you might imagine from this storm. As it moves in during tonight. And
03:06lasting for most of Thursday. We also have the rain to consider. Because it's
03:11been so very wet. This storm is going to generate further bounds of heavy and
03:15persistent rain. That are likely to cause more disruption. So again. A number of
03:20Met Office yellow warnings in place. Check our app or our website for the
03:23details of all of those. Let's take a look at how the storm moves in then.
03:29During tonight. We'll start to see the wet weather spreading into southwest
03:32England. Then Wales. Then across the Midlands. And then. Well just this big
03:36swirl. Swamping England and Wales. By first thing tomorrow morning. The rain at
03:41the same time. Across Scotland clear. So it'll turn a bit chilly here. And so
03:44we'll see some drier weather for a time. Across parts of Northern Ireland. So
03:48again. With some clearer skies here. May turn a little fresh. With temperatures
03:51down to single figures. Mid to single figures. Across much of the
03:56south. Maybe even double digits in the far south. But it's really here. All about
04:00the wind and the rain. A very very blustery start to Thursday. Particularly
04:05south Wales. And southwest England. Look at that swirl there. Just the heavy rain
04:10continues to feed into northeast England. Southeast Scotland. Parts of
04:13north Wales. And bands of heavy showers. Then just become slow moving. As that
04:17storm kind of does grind to a halt. During the course of Thursday afternoon.
04:22Parts of northwest Scotland. Getting away with a largely fine day. Although
04:25we'll see some rain in the east of Northern Ireland. Where we don't need it.
04:28Further west across Northern Ireland. Again. Much of the day may well be dry.
04:31Fine and sunny. But far from that elsewhere. And temperature wise. 10 to
04:36maybe 13 Celsius. Across the south. Feeling colder than it has done for sure.
04:41With all the wind and the rain. And that storm system. As I say. Still lingering
04:46in parts of the east. Even into Friday. Before it fully clears. And there's more
04:49wet and windy weather to come. As we head into the weekend. For more on that. Check
04:53out our deep dive. Best way to do that. The only way to watch our deep dive. In
04:57fact. Is on YouTube. So make sure you hit subscribe. There's lots more
05:00information. Including how to prepare for storms. On our website. Where you can
05:05also check out full details of those weather warnings.