10 day trend 24/08/22 – How will summer end? – Met Office UK Weather Forecast
We are into the final stretch of summer – a summer notable for its repeated spells of high pressure, high temperatures and lack of rainfall.
Will similar weather patterns repeat for the bank holiday weekend and beyond or is a sign of more autumnal
Will similar weather patterns repeat for the bank holiday weekend and beyond or is a sign of more autumnal
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00:00Hi there, we are entering the final stretch of what has been a remarkable summer. Exceptional
00:05heat especially in the south and south east and an exceptional lack of rainfall in places
00:12as well. At the time of recording it's another hot and dry day in the south east but that's
00:17about to change. During Wednesday night into the start of Thursday a weather front pushes
00:22in. Now ahead of that weather front there's the chance of some thundery rain by the early
00:27hours of Thursday and that heavy rain across East Anglia and the south east will continue
00:32during Thursday morning eventually easing away and pushing into the North Sea. Some
00:38useful rain perhaps but could be tricky on the roads first thing. Once that's out of
00:44the way actually things are about to turn fresher. That fresher air arriving from the
00:48west. Plenty of sunny skies for northern and western England, Wales, scattered showers
00:53for western Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland. Mid to high teens Scotland and Northern
00:57Ireland back to closer to average temperatures across much of England and Wales and if the
01:03sun comes out towards the south east later in the day 26 or 27 Celsius. Friday starts
01:08off with plenty of sunshine towards the south east and the north west in between an area
01:13of cloud and some heavy showers, perhaps some lively downpours for central and southern
01:17Scotland for a time. One or two showers further south as well and temperatures at around average
01:24for the vast majority. So low to mid-twenties in the south, mid to high teens further north.
01:31Now these showers will continue for a time but eventually what's happening as we head
01:35into the weekend is high pressures building from the Azores. The Azores are a group of
01:40islands in the mid-Atlantic. Semi-permanent high sits here throughout much of the year
01:45but what's been happening through this year so far, especially during the summer, is high
01:50pressure from the Azores keeps extending across the UK, hence the warm summer and the very
01:56dry summer that we've had and that repeating pattern repeats again this weekend. So high
02:02pressure building in bringing settled, fine, bright and warmer weather to many places and
02:10of course Monday's Bank Holiday Monday for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. But that's
02:16not the only story. Through the weekend, if I switch back to Friday now, there's also
02:21an area of low pressure which will likely bring some wetter weather for a time late
02:26Saturday into Sunday to the north west, mainly Northern Ireland, Western Scotland and then
02:31clearing from the far north of Scotland during Monday. Some uncertainty about the timings
02:37and the position of that rainfall and therefore the extent to which that wetter and breezier
02:43weather will affect the far north west. But that looks like the most likely scenario for
02:48now. Elsewhere, it's not going to be entirely dry Saturday, Sunday, Monday. There's always
02:54a chance each day of one or two showers building, especially towards Northern England, Central
03:00and Southern Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday. But away from any isolated showers,
03:05it will be mostly dry. There'll be some sunny spells and it will be warming up. So on Saturday,
03:11temperatures are around the high teens across Scotland, Northern Ireland, low to mid 20s
03:16for England and Wales. Add a degree or so on Sunday. Of course, there is some breezy
03:22and wet weather likely towards the far north west. So that will make it feel cool. But
03:25elsewhere with any drier and brighter interludes, mid to high 20s are possible. And Monday looks
03:32very similar. So fairly widely mid 20s across England and Wales and perhaps some mid 20s
03:37there for Scotland and Northern Ireland, especially in the south and the east. So it's a warming
03:42trend through the weekend. And part of the reason is that we're going to start to see
03:47more of a continental feed by this date because high pressure is becoming centred over Scandinavia.
03:53And this particular weather pattern, a Scandinavian high, is represented by this colour on this
04:00graph. And this is a graph of weather patterns. Each colour represents a different type of
04:06weather pattern. And the date on the bottom shows the forecast date for these weather
04:11patterns going out to the next two weeks. And this is a stacked probability chart, a
04:15cumulative probability shown here up to 100%. And it's a combination of the three main computer
04:22models that we use, Met Office, European and the American model. And what it does is it
04:27shows the likelihood of these different weather patterns each day for the next couple of weeks.
04:31Now the reds and oranges generally represent weather patterns where high pressure is close
04:35to the UK. So in this instance, Monday, Tuesday, that high pressure sitting over Scandinavia.
04:42Then we switch to this shade of red and that represents typically blocked weather patterns.
04:47And what that means, if I go on to the next graph here, is higher pressure to the west
04:54of the UK. So this is Tuesday, high pressure closer to Scandinavia. And then it transitions
04:58around the middle of next week to higher pressure to the west of the UK, blocking areas of low
05:04pressure from affecting the United Kingdom. And that means that really through the middle
05:10part of next week, it's likely to stay largely dry. You wouldn't rule out a few showers developing
05:16here and there, but for the vast majority, dry with sunny spells. And throughout next
05:21week and into the following weekend, that is the most likely weather pattern. And I'll
05:27switch on to another view of that. So this is from the European model showing the most
05:31likely weather pattern for the end of next week. And really there's very little difference.
05:35Higher pressure to the west of the UK. In this situation, there's always the chance
05:40of these blue colours representing rain, some rain coming into the far north and northwest
05:45of the UK. This is what we call Atlantic mobility. So weather systems coming in over the top
05:51of the high and bringing some changeable weather into the north of Scotland. But for most,
05:56this would bring largely dry, settled and bright weather with temperatures a little
06:02above average, but nowhere near the exceptional heat that we've seen at times this summer.
06:07And just to show you how strong this weather pattern is, the next two weather patterns,
06:11the next two most likely weather patterns for the same day, next Friday, show a very
06:16similar theme. The only difference is that high pressure is just in a slightly different
06:21place in the Atlantic. And altogether, these add up to a chance of about 70 odd percent.
06:26And so it's looking very likely that throughout next week, high pressure will be close to
06:31the UK. That high pressure will be sitting to the west, blocking significant spells of
06:36rain. And that's likely to last until next weekend.