Greg Bedard and Nick Cattles give their full preview and predictions for Drake Maye's first NFL start when the New England Patriots play the Houston Texans. How will Maye fare against the Texans' exceptional pass rush? Can the defense contain CJ Stroud and Stefon Diggs?
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SportsTranscript
00:00This is the Gregg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cavins.
00:10Don't forget to download the prize picks app today.
00:12Use code CLNS, get 50 bucks instantly when you play $5 again, that's code CLNS on prize
00:17picks.
00:18You also take the guesswork out of buying tickets with game time.
00:21Download the game time app, create an account, use code CLNS for 20 bucks off your first
00:26purchase.
00:27But before we get to a Drake May, just a couple of quick hits from Gerard Mayo just a little
00:32while ago as we record this on Friday morning, uh, remandre Stevenson looks like he's going
00:38to be out.
00:39Sounds like a Harris could get elevated.
00:41So that's a note that people should know.
00:43Uh, Mayo also said there's a shot at Sione talkie talkie being activated and playing
00:48this weekend.
00:49Uh, and then he also said two things I want your thoughts on quickly that Christian Barmore
00:55is progressing and says that he feels better now about Barmore being able to play at some
01:00point this year than he did a couple of weeks ago.
01:03Uh, just first your thoughts on Barmore and what Mayo had to say.
01:07Yeah.
01:08I mean, I think that was welcome news.
01:09Um, you know, I don't think Gerard was definitive in terms of like now they definitely expect
01:15them back.
01:16It was more like, you know, the chances are, are definitely better than they were when
01:22this came down.
01:24And as I told you at the time, um, it was sort of like a minimum three months him being
01:29out with sort of the, the, the course of medications that he would go through and that would bring
01:35us to sometime in November.
01:37Um, so I guess, you know, everything's going well and he's checking the boxes and I think
01:43we all know that Christian Barmore is a type of guy that they could use upfront.
01:47I mean, we, with each passing week, and I think this will be an interesting mashup with
01:51the Texans who, um, as good as the Texans have been, they haven't really been able
01:56to run the ball.
01:57Um, and they need to be able to run the ball.
01:59And I think on film teams are seeing that you can run on the Patriots, especially as
02:04long as you keep doing it and you stay consistent and maybe wear down Godchow a little bit.
02:08Um, so they need Barmore.
02:11We know he's one of their best players.
02:13Um, they could really use them at some point in time.
02:16The other note I wanted to ask you about from Mayo, because it's something that you talked
02:20about in the past is Cole strange.
02:22And Mayo said that 100% Cole strange, he could see, uh, playing center.
02:27He did say that while strange has been out, he's not been, you know, snapping to any quarterbacks
02:32or anything, but just your reaction to Mayo bringing up this idea, or at least being asked
02:37about it and confirming that yes, a hundred percent Cole strange, uh, could be a sensor
02:42option for this football team.
02:43Yeah.
02:44Well, I mean, you look at what they have and like, um, not that it's perfect.
02:49They have plenty of guards on this team.
02:52Um, I think that Michael Jordan at left guard is a guy that you can argue has been the team's
02:57best offensive lineman this season.
02:59Um, he's done that well.
03:02Um, some of it was David Andrews slipping a little bit with his injury and a when you,
03:07you know, hopefully big Mike with, with another week back at guard is a little bit better.
03:11I mean, he has been underwhelming to say the least, um, this season, whether it's been
03:15right tackler, right guard, and I don't really like his conditioning on film.
03:19I think he gets, he gets worse as the game goes on.
03:21Uh, I guess that changes the more you play.
03:24Uh, but you know, Cole strange athletically, no doubt in my mind, it was my evaluation
03:31of him coming out of the draft that I, you know, I was like, okay, he can play guard,
03:35but I think he has a chance to be a special center because of his athletic ability.
03:40And also with his athletic, he's like the prototype zone blocking set because he can
03:48move, um, better than just about any center or offensive lineman I've ever seen.
03:53Um, you know, so, but with him and with him playing center, I'm not worried about him,
04:00whether physically he can do it, he can definitely do it.
04:02And I think it would be a really good match, uh, with his athleticism to me, I think the
04:07big question, and I think the team even has questions about this, and this is where he
04:11can be working on this right now is the mental side, because so much in this offense compared
04:18to the old Patriots offense is on the center, um, being the brains basically of the protections
04:25of the schemes.
04:26Is that a strength for Cole?
04:28I don't know.
04:29I mean, I, that's not the book on him, but you know, who knows, I mean, maybe he's some
04:35sort of savant when it comes to that.
04:37I don't know, but that's something he can be working on now.
04:41He can be, you know, putting on those VR glasses and looking at actions and calling it out.
04:47Like he, you know, that's where he can be getting reps right now.
04:50And I think those are actually the most important reps when it comes to projecting Cole strange,
04:55possibly as a center.
04:56All right.
04:57Let's get to the story of the week.
04:58We know what it is.
04:59It's Drake may, uh, making his first NFL start against the Texans on Sunday, uh, before your
05:05thoughts about expectations, Greg, this weekend for Drake may, I first want to ask you about
05:11the plan.
05:12What, what kind of changes will the, will there be big changes, smaller changes?
05:17Are we talking significant here with AVP flipping some stuff around with Drake may, what do
05:22you think the plan looks like with may at quarterback versus Brissett at quarterback?
05:26If Jacoby was playing on Sunday.
05:29In terms of the offense and the approach.
05:31Yeah.
05:32Yep.
05:33Yeah.
05:34What you'll do.
05:35Well, what you'll do with may himself.
05:36What, what kinds of things, what kinds of plays could you run with may?
05:39What does he bring to the table that is different than Jacoby that AVP should be taking advantage
05:44of on Sunday?
05:46Well, I would say number one is the legs and, and I wouldn't, if, if I was scripting a game
05:51plan for Drake may, um, it would, I would try to tick off of things that he's very comfortable
05:58with.
05:59And I sort of talked about this on my solo pod the other day and, and, you know, I had
06:03heard Josh McDaniels talking on Julian Edelman's podcast earlier in the year, because he was
06:08asked about Drake may and how you handle a young quarterback.
06:11And we've seen it in the past with, you know, Josh McDaniels one, a game was a 27, nothing
06:18against the Houston and undefeated Texans team with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
06:22And, um, probably something similar to that.
06:26Not, I'm not saying that Drake may is not better than Jacoby Brissett was as a rookie.
06:30We all know, um, that, that Drake may is uber talented.
06:33There's no question about his skills.
06:36But you know, you, you, you basically, as, as a coach, you say, all right, well, what's
06:41in this kid's bucket?
06:43You know, what, what can he do?
06:44What's he comfortable with?
06:46And let's stay, stay there.
06:48And at this time it might be the size of like a coffee cup, but, um, that doesn't matter.
06:54You need to stay there.
06:55You don't want to do anything that he hasn't repped.
06:57You don't want to do anything he's not comfortable with.
06:59And then slowly you add like a little bit like, all right, he's doing this, but what
07:04if we add this and, you know, hopefully at some point in time, what, what may can do
07:10becomes a bucket instead of a coffee cup.
07:12Um, but I think if I were scripting the play for, for, for Drake, um, what we've seen that
07:18he's comfortable with, I would definitely do, you know, some sort of bubble.
07:22I would do some sort of quarterback designed run.
07:25Um, I'm not worried about him getting, taking hits on that because he'll know where the
07:29blockers are and things like that.
07:32Um, you know, I would say that where I think they are going to get a definite advantage
07:38is Drake's a bit of a gunslinger.
07:41And, um, I think that where, where Jacoby wasn't effective operating this offense was
07:49more sort of like the deep in cuts, um, Alex van Pelt loves those.
07:54Um, it's similar to a Polk play that he threw in the preseason, uh, the pop Douglas play,
08:03those types of things like Drake's gonna be, he likes to throw those and Jacoby does not.
08:09And so I think that that the more comfortable Drake gets, I think those types of things.
08:16And then, you know, the, the posts, the goes like Drake's not afraid, like if it's one
08:22on one, that dude's going to sling it out there.
08:25And, um, I think, I think, uh, I do think that he'll have a positive effect on the,
08:30on the offense.
08:31I just want to make sure that I, I let Drake get settled into the game before I start getting
08:38too astray.
08:41Offensive line.
08:42Looks like it's going to be starting for the second straight week, the same offensive line,
08:45which has not happened this year.
08:46Uh, of course, Houston has a ridiculous pass rush.
08:50They're number one in pressure rate.
08:51They've got Will Anderson, uh, you know, on, on one end and they got the Neil Hunter on
08:55the other end, uh, just your, your, your two or three highlights, Greg, if you have them
08:59as far as this Patriots offensive matchup versus the Miko Ryan's defense coming up on
09:04Sunday.
09:05Yeah.
09:06I mean, I, uh, you know, watching the Texans on film, um, and sort of, you know, my, my
09:13fear is that these guys are really fast on film and the Patriots defense, while they
09:18do a lot of, they have the potential to do a lot of exotic things.
09:22Um, they haven't necessarily done those.
09:24And I would say, uh, that going from facing the Patriots defense and their front seven,
09:30which is on the slower side, especially without Juwan Bentley, um, this is going to be something
09:35else.
09:36This is going to be the record player, like, you know, uh, going up a few notches.
09:40Uh, so I'm a little bit worried about that.
09:42I'm obviously worried about the ends because, uh, like you said, those guys are really good.
09:48I've been underwhelmed with the way that Alex van Pelt has dealt with, uh, with good pass
09:55rushers like Nick Bosa, like for me, way too many single blocks.
09:59Now you got two of them.
10:00Is he going to really take care of that?
10:02If I were Gerard Mayo as the head coach, I would be like, dude, we are putting tight
10:08ends on either side and they are staying in and they are leaking out.
10:11We are going to protect our number one quarterback and it's especially early on in the game.
10:17I worry about van Pelt doing that because I don't think these guys, these West coast
10:21guys like to do that.
10:22They love to get their, their five out in the route.
10:25And I just don't think that's a recipe for success.
10:28I worry about that.
10:32This Texans defense just faced Josh Allen and you could see their plan on film was they
10:40had a really strong pass rush plan against Josh Allen and that include mixing things
10:44up with a spy and things like that.
10:47If I'm them and I see the way Drake may has played, I'm taking that exact same game plan
10:51and I'm putting it right to this game.
10:53So not a great matchup in terms of that.
10:56You would have liked them play some sort of like Joe Flacco the week before, um, you know,
11:02a stationary pocket quarterback, they just faced a mobile quarterback.
11:06That's what they're going to get with sort of Josh Allen light in, in terms of Drake
11:09may.
11:11Um, the Patriots, you know, they have, they have to run the ball well in this game.
11:17You know, I ha I think you can run on the Texans a little bit.
11:21I do not want to be throwing at Stingley the cornerback.
11:25So it'll be interesting to see who they match up with.
11:27If I'm Drake may, I'm, I'm being very weary of that.
11:31Could be Jalen Polk.
11:32I might just eliminate Jalen Polk altogether in the game plan and go to pop, go to pop
11:37Hunter Henry, um, you know, Kendrick Bourne with another week.
11:42Those are sort of my thoughts on that.
11:44All right.
11:45Before we get to the defense, Greg, uh, tell the good people about prize picks.
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12:09picks.
12:10So I feel better.
12:12Last week was not good.
12:13I told you I didn't feel good about it.
12:15Hopefully, you know, you sat that one out.
12:17I feel a little bit better.
12:18So this is my lineup this week.
12:20Little, little bummed, no free square, but I am going Drake may more than 25 and a half
12:26rushing yards.
12:27I think, uh, I think that's where he's going to make his hay in this game.
12:30I do think he's going to make some plays down the field, but, uh, those legs are dangerous.
12:36I just talked about Polk, but I'm going Jalen Polk more than 22 and a half receiving yards.
12:42I think that Drake may really likes Polk.
12:45I think that they'll scheme something up.
12:46They'll get, you know, a couple of deep in cuts, uh, maybe a little bit of a go, but
12:51I may and Polk work well together.
12:54This one I don't feel great about, but I think that that pop Douglas is going to find some
12:59room underneath more than 33 and a half receiving yards.
13:03I have Dalton Schultz, the Houston Texans, tight end more than 33 and a half receiving
13:09yards.
13:10I don't love the Patriots, uh, safeties, even though Kyle Duggar could be back this week.
13:15He got back on the practice field and CJ Stroud who does not like to run.
13:20He has a pocket quarterback, uh, but I took more than eight and a half rushing yards because
13:25I still don't think the Patriots are all that disciplined.
13:28I do think that they cover well.
13:29I think that they'll, they'll cover.
13:32And at a certain point in time, CJ Stroud is just going to say, I'm going to take this
13:36myself and convert the first down.
13:38And I think he's going to hit on that.
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13:56All right, let's jump to the defense.
13:59My first question to you is, uh, the Patriots, they seem like they have the talent and they
14:04play man pretty well, but they haven't played man as much as they played last season.
14:10Uh, so they've been leaning on, on zone.
14:12Uh, when you look at CJ Stroud Stroud's done well against man so far this year, uh, are
14:18you playing man?
14:19Are you playing zone?
14:20Uh, will you, will you, of course you'll play both, but will you ramp up?
14:24Will you ramp up the man numbers, Greg, in this matchup?
14:27Or do you like sticking with the, you know, 65, 70% zone plan?
14:32Yeah, I want to go more man.
14:34I think the Patriots can really cover well.
14:36I mean, outside when Marco Wilson's out there, but, um, Christian Gonzalez has been really
14:42good.
14:43He was really good against Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle last week.
14:46Um, you know, the, the, the Texans don't have Nico Collins this week.
14:50They just put them on IR, which is huge.
14:51He was the leading receiver in the league.
14:54Um, you know, they have digs, they have tank Dell, they have Hutchinson, but you know,
15:01digs, isn't the same digs.
15:02And Jonathan Jones has a lot of experience against this guy.
15:05Not great.
15:06Um, you know, but digs, isn't the same guy I am.
15:09I'm blanketing these guys.
15:10I, I am, I'm going back old school.
15:13Um, you know, yeah, Stroud's really good, but, uh, right now, when I look at the Patriots,
15:20the strength of their team right now is in their past coverage.
15:23And I think that they need to play into that and maybe that'll free up, that'll free up
15:29the ability to blitz a little bit more.
15:31Um, so yeah, that's what I'm doing.
15:34All right.
15:35You're DeMarcus Covington.
15:36You're getting the game plan together this week.
15:38You're looking at the Texans offense, uh, two or three things, Greg, that you're highlighting
15:42walking into this matchup.
15:44Well, I say, you know, the big thing is I think the Texans are really going to try to
15:48run the ball.
15:49They haven't been able to run the ball very well.
15:51Their offensive rushing EPA is 29th in the league.
15:55Their pass EPA is eighth.
15:57Um, but I do think that Houston needs to run the ball, especially without, um, without
16:04Nico Collins out there.
16:05Uh, I think there are different beasts, so, you know, I really want to be better against
16:09the run.
16:10Um, you know, and I think that, you know, Stroud is Stroud's a special guy.
16:17You know, you got to stay alive with your coverage.
16:20He goes to a lot of second windows.
16:21Um, you know, again, he doesn't like to run, but he will run to, to, to find an opening
16:27to throw.
16:28He will.
16:29He's, he's mobile that way.
16:30And, you know, tank Dell's a guy who knows, you know, we might see a little bit more this
16:37week for the Texans.
16:38He's a guy who really hasn't gotten, gotten on track there for them.
16:42Um, but you know, I, Stefan digs is the go-to guy.
16:46I'm probably doubling him on third down.
16:48He really likes Dalton Schultz as well.
16:51Um, you know, but making sure you also take care of tank Dell.
16:55Yeah.
16:56The run game, you know, 24%, uh, I mean, 24th and run rate.
17:00So they haven't run the ball a ton and when they run the ball, uh, 30th in success rate
17:04in the league.
17:05So that's, uh, yeah, not good.
17:07And their run block win rate, their offensive line is 28th in the league when trying to
17:11run the football.
17:12So they've had some issues upfront, uh, succeeding and, and making those blocks that they've
17:16needed.
17:17All right.
17:18We'll get to that in a minute.
17:19But first, Greg has to tell you about our friends at game time.
17:22It's that time of year.
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18:39All right, Greg, this week's pick I'm three and two on the season against the spread.
18:44I believe you're two, two and one against the spread.
18:48We are both three and two straight up that Miami game hurt us last week.
18:51They should have won that damn game.
18:53But let's let's look at the the Texans match up here and the pick and the numbers Texans.
18:59I saw it yesterday, FanDuel.
19:01Maybe you have it differently.
19:02I had it six and a half.
19:03Do you have six and a half?
19:04Yeah.
19:05Yeah.
19:06I have six.
19:07All right.
19:08So I've got Texans minus six and a half.
19:09And the overrunner is 37 and a half.
19:10Greg, give us your pick.
19:12So I do think they're going to get a I do think they're going to get a Drake May bounce.
19:16I think they are going to make plays.
19:18I think Drake's going to make a couple with his with his arm.
19:20I think he's going to make more than a few with his legs.
19:25I think they're going to up the total.
19:27I think they they are going to score some touchdowns.
19:30I do think that, you know, Drake May's probably going to turn the ball over a time or two.
19:36You know, I worry about fumbles getting hit and also the Texans just fooling him.
19:43I mean, D'Amico Ryan's their defense like they do a lot of shit on third down.
19:47And like, you know, this is where Drake this is going to be different from college and
19:51what he saw in the preseason.
19:53And I do think there's going to be some confusion.
19:56I do think he's going to throw the Texans once, but I do think it's going to be fun.
20:01It's going to be adventure.
20:02I think they're going to they're going to stick for a while.
20:05I do think without having Collins, I do think that that's going to affect the Texans and
20:10make this game a little bit closer.
20:13But I have the Texans 3017 in this game, so I like them to cover.
20:22Yeah, I mean, I'm concerned about the turnovers as well.
20:26I do think Drake will have one or two turnovers.
20:28I'm concerned about the Ramondre Stevenson injury doesn't look like he's going to play
20:31this weekend.
20:32Now you're down to Gibson and hasty and Harris.
20:35So, you know, what does that look like?
20:38We know Alex Van Pelt didn't want to run the football against bad run defenses when he
20:41had Stevenson out there.
20:42I don't know what the hell he's going to do on Sunday without Stevenson.
20:45Your guess is as good as mine.
20:47I like the Texans 2717.
20:50I would I would take those Texans minus the six and a half.
20:53And let's see what the math is.
20:55That's the that's the overwrite 2717 is 44 points, I believe.
20:59So both Greg and I have the over 37 and a half.
21:02All right.
21:03That'll do it, everybody.
21:04It should be a fun time this Sunday.
21:06You know, some chaos, I'm sure.
21:08But it's the start of a new era with Drake May out there.
21:11Greg and I will be back early next week to recap how Drake looked and how the game went.
21:16Until then, everybody, enjoy your football weekend and be well.
21:32Transcribed by https://otter.ai