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TVTranscript
00:00Let's take a look at some of the economic agendas and emissions that we have summarized in the following graphics.
00:11There is the PMI index in July, then the South Korean IH in July or year-on-year.
00:18From the United States, there is a reserve position in the Federal Reserve Bank and unemployment rate in July.
00:24From the Global Economic Agenda, we move to the Emitten Agenda.
00:28There is the Akrakum Cash Dividend, NISP Cash Dividend, S-Hardware Cash Dividend, NINE Cash Dividend, and several other agendas.
00:39You can see the complete agenda on the screen.
00:42Then, we will move to the Asian Stock Exchange.
00:46We will see the complete data as follows.
00:50In Japan, there is a 4.64% decline in the stock market.
00:54In the US, there is a 1% decline in the stock market.
00:56In the US, there is a 2.75% decline in the stock market.
00:58In Hong Kong, there is a 1.62% decline in the stock market.
01:01What about the stock exchange?
01:03This morning, there is a sharp decline in the stock market.
01:07It seems that the S&P index is also going in the opposite direction.
01:20The stock exchange rose 104% in the first semester of this year to 2.34 trillion rupiah.
01:26The S&P Index reported that the stock exchange rose 2.34 trillion rupiah in the first semester of 2024,
01:34rose 104.32% annually or year-on-year from the previous period of only 1.14 trillion rupiah.
01:42There was also a 13.07 trillion rupiah income increase of 46.49% year-on-year.
01:51In short, the S&P income was supplemented by the 8.37 trillion rupiah income segment,
01:58followed by the construction income segment of 3.96 trillion rupiah,
02:02and the other business income segments of 732.68 billion rupiah.
02:07In total, the S&P income and construction income segment was supported by the increase in the business toll margin
02:14compared to the construction margin.
02:16The S&P income was reduced by 36.54% to more than 8 trillion rupiah.
02:22The share of the burden on the S&P income was only 44.92%
02:28compared to the share of the burden on the S&P construction income, which reached 99.49%.
02:36Therefore, although the construction income increased by 104%,
02:39the contribution of the construction business tends to be thin.
02:42In managing the new toll road project in the next five years,
02:46Jasa Marga is committed to achieving the target that has been set as optimal as possible
02:50and continues to manage the construction activity of the toll road gradually.
02:56Currently, Jasa Marga has several projects in the field of construction and land liberation,
03:01namely Jalan Tol Probolinggo, Banyuwangi, Jalan Tol Yogyakarta-Bawen,
03:05Jalan Tol Solo Yogyakarta-Kulonprogo, Jalan Tol Yogyakarta-Cikampek II-Selatan,
03:12and Jalan Tol Akses-Patimban.
03:21This morning, we will discuss with Pak Canra Pasaribu,
03:25Head of Research Analyst PT Yuan Tasekuritas Indonesia.
03:29How are you, Pak Canra?
03:32Good morning.
03:33Good morning. Thank you for joining us this morning.
03:36Actually, we want to start a financial report,
03:38especially from Jasa Marga, which is so epic,
03:40to book the interest rate above 100%.
03:42But, there is something interesting from the ASEAN exchange,
03:45that the interest rate dropped by 4%,
03:47and all the main indexes in the ASEAN region,
03:49such as Singapore, then there is KOSPI,
03:52and there is also Hang Seng there, which fell quite deep.
03:57What does this indicate?
03:59And maybe there is a sentiment that you see there.
04:02Most likely, it's a bit of a sell-on news.
04:05Because from the FED meeting yesterday,
04:07there was an indication that there is a possibility
04:10that the interest rate drop will be done in September.
04:15So, in the end, the market has actually risen globally.
04:22So, with relatively little,
04:25there is a lot of certainty about the drop in interest rates from the FED,
04:29it looks like people are selling on news.
04:31So, that's why it looks like everything is finally correct globally.
04:35There is also a possibility that the IHSG today
04:38will also experience the same pressure.
04:41The same pressure, will it be deep enough or what?
04:43Compared to other ASEAN exchanges,
04:45we will go down,
04:47usually we go down what is meant to be deep,
04:51if it's above 0.5%,
04:53what do you think the chances are in this morning's opening?
04:56I saw that Nikkei Japan fell by 4%.
04:59Yes, maybe not that far.
05:01Maybe 1% correction will occur,
05:05maybe to level 7200, it will be tested again.
05:10Usually, our market is relatively resilient.
05:13Lately, we have seen a positive sentiment with foreign inflow.
05:18So, in the last three weeks,
05:22there has been a positive foreign inflow there.
05:25Maybe it can give a little resistance.
05:29If the market corrects again,
05:31there is a possibility that foreigners may see us more attractive,
05:37so maybe they can come back.
05:40Okay, so if there is a weakness in the global exchange,
05:43especially in ASEAN,
05:45and you say there is a possibility that we will go down at the end of the week,
05:49at least the Netbuy that has gone through the last three weeks
05:52can be a barrier if there is a weakness.
05:55Mr. Chandra, do we need to be cautious?
05:59With the weakness that will be deep this morning,
06:01maybe what shares will target,
06:04and what should investors do?
06:07Usually, the blue chips, especially in banks,
06:11because in banks, we know that the recent rally is supported by the financial sector.
06:17Especially because the banks have relatively good financial results.
06:23So there is a possibility that there will be a correction in the banking sector,
06:31including some blue chip companies,
06:35such as Telkom, which has also recovered recently,
06:39maybe getting sales pressure, including Astra or ICBP.
06:45So what is your recommendation for this morning, Mr. Chandra,
06:48in the middle of the opportunity for pressure?
06:52Maybe wait and see,
06:54let the sales pressure be a bit off first,
06:58then we will take the opportunity to enter.
07:01So there is no need to rush.
07:03No need to rush, Mr. Chandra.
07:05Okay, there is a chance that the price index and the joint will be pressured,
07:08maybe up to 1% according to the company,
07:10where the weakness of Nikkei Japan at the moment is still maintained,
07:144%, 4.13%, Hang Seng 1.51%,
07:19then there is Shanghai also weakening,
07:21Singapore's Street M share is also almost 1%, 0.8%.
07:25And later we will see in the pre-opening,
07:27what the price index will be like for the joint.
07:29But don't rush to enter first when there is a correction, Mr. Chandra.
07:34Right, right.
07:35There is still a chance to continue,
07:38because if there is a correction today, it will be the first day.
07:42Right.
07:43Okay, Mr. Chandra, let's go to the finance report.
07:45We have presented some information earlier,
07:47but what is interesting is the price service,
07:49with a market that jumped more than 100%.
07:52What do you think is the prospect for the emittance, CSMR?
07:58Actually, if you look at it, there are various factors,
08:00but the bottom line is that there is an improvement in operational performance
08:05compared to the previous year.
08:06But maybe the increase is not as big
08:10because there are comparisons that are not apple to apple
08:14compared to last year.
08:16So one example is, for example,
08:18re-consolidation of the three toll roads,
08:21which did not exist last year,
08:23appeared this year,
08:24and that gives an additional revenue of around 1.5 trillion.
08:28So, it's not an apple to apple comparison.
08:31But if we strip out the various disturbances,
08:36actually the bottom line can still grow by almost 50%.
08:41So, an apple to apple comparison to 1.7 trillion.
08:46So, basically, what happens is that there is an improvement or recovery after COVID.
08:53So, the traffic volume is basically back or even higher than before COVID.
08:59In addition, there is an additional adjustment rate from last year.
09:03So, in terms of operational performance,
09:05we see that there is a significant improvement.
09:08Okay, when you see that there is a significant improvement there,
09:12between the stock market and the income,
09:14both of them are experiencing an increase.
09:16So, what is the investment projection for Jasa Marga?
09:21We actually expected it from before.
09:23So, actually, the results we see now are still in line with our expectations.
09:28And in terms of target price, we are at 5850.
09:32So, relatively, maybe it's already reflected,
09:35that it's already reflected in the stock price.
09:39So, maybe we tend to be a bit neutral towards Jasa Marga.
09:43Okay, Jasa Marga can be said to have been priced in, right?
09:50Because the energy is expected to grow,
09:54especially during COVID,
09:55especially the use of toll roads,
09:58the traffic is also increasing.
10:01So, you see that 104% is something normal.
10:06Okay.
10:10Go ahead, sir.
10:12Okay, maybe the continuation of Jasa Marga
10:14is the monetization of the Trans Java toll road, right?
10:19Because it will add capital to Jasa Marga.
10:24So, in the end, indeed,
10:26some toll road expansions that have been mentioned earlier,
10:29there are about five areas,
10:31maybe it can run faster or smoother from the financing side.
10:36So, it can be like the next engine growth.
10:40Okay.
10:41In the last month, Jasa Marga has just increased by 2.37%.
10:45If we draw a longer line,
10:46in the last six months, the strength was 15.14%.
10:51Is it actually quite significant for Jasa Marga?
10:56Or what if you said earlier that this is actually in line with expectations?
11:00There should still be room for the increase in Jasa Marga
11:03more than, at least, only 2% in this month.
11:06For example, is there still a chance when this energy charge is released?
11:09Or in your opinion, the movement is a bit slow?
11:13The movement should be a bit slow.
11:15Because actually we should pull the investment horizon
11:18back even to maybe the fourth quarter of last year.
11:22Okay.
11:24Indications have been seen
11:26from the last three or four quarters.
11:29So, it should actually be priced.
11:31The one that appears in the current share price.
11:33So, it looks like for the current stock price,
11:36why is it only increasing by 2%?
11:38It is indeed from the tail,
11:40rather than the increase in reflection,
11:43rather than the fundamental increase.
11:45Okay.
11:47We see that although this income
11:50has experienced an increase,
11:52especially from the business toll.
11:54Construction for this construction segment has also increased.
11:58But the contribution of this construction business
12:00tends to be thin.
12:01Because there is a main burden on the construction income
12:04which reaches 99%.
12:06The burden is 99.49%.
12:09Well, does it mean that the construction industry
12:12is currently very sluggish,
12:14both in terms of Damarga and others?
12:16We will go into more detail later.
12:18Mr. Chandra, let's talk about Jeddah first.
12:20And Mr. Mirza,
12:21we will also present the opening trading update
12:23as well as the recommendation of the Jeddah stock market.
12:26Stay with us in the market bus segment.
12:28Thank you, Mr. Mirza,
12:29for joining us in the market bus segment.
12:32We will still discuss with Mr. Chandra,
12:34Head of Research Analysis PT Yuwanta Securities,
12:37and still review the performance of the emittance,
12:40especially the stock price,
12:41which opened up 104%.
12:43Most of it has been reviewed.
12:45What is the analysis like for the stock?
12:48But I am still interested, Mr. Chandra,
12:50related to the portion of the main burden
12:52on the stock price toll income,
12:54which is only 44.92%,
12:57compared to the portion of the main burden
12:59on the construction income,
13:01which is 99.49%.
13:03So even though the construction income has increased,
13:05the contribution of the construction business
13:07tends to be sluggish.
13:09Does this mean that the construction sector
13:11is currently sluggish?
13:13And not only now,
13:14but it seems that in the future it will still be sluggish.
13:16And how about those who have invested in construction,
13:19but it seems difficult to get out now?
13:23Yes, so those who are in construction,
13:25in the private sector,
13:27maybe their understanding is a bit different
13:29from the construction that is done by
13:31such as WIKA,
13:33Waskita, or PP.
13:35So here, actually,
13:37the construction income is the new toll road
13:39that is being built.
13:41So this is accounting ruling.
13:43So we do see that
13:45in the large income,
13:47it is also balanced by the large output.
13:49Because basically,
13:50it is their own toll road construction.
13:52So it's not a service to the party.
13:54So the income is relatively
13:56almost non-existent.
13:58So the income from the private sector
14:00is the toll road rate.
14:02Actually, that's how it is.
14:04What is your recommendation
14:06for the private sector?
14:10Maybe
14:12it's still a bit sluggish.
14:14But maybe it means that we are
14:16quite close to our target price,
14:18which is Rp. 5,350.
14:20So it's not too much.
14:22And now,
14:24the opening price is down by 0.9%.
14:26At Rp. 5,350,
14:28you can see that it's close to
14:30the target at Rp. 5,800.
14:32So it's still good, but the range
14:34is starting to narrow, right?
14:36Okay.
14:38We'll leave it at that.
14:40I will go over the opening price
14:42this morning,
14:44because it's 9 o'clock,
14:46and it's quite deep.
14:48It's down by 0.8% in one minute.
14:50It's almost 1% at Rp. 7,268.
14:52You said earlier
14:54that the probability will drop
14:56by around 1%.
14:58Do we need to worry about this weakness?
15:02I don't think so.
15:04I think this is a technical issue,
15:06because we see it globally.
15:08If we look at the financial results
15:10up to the first half of 2024,
15:12it's relatively not too bad.
15:14There are some challenges in the future.
15:16Yesterday, there was also
15:18a PMI below Rp. 50,000.
15:20So there's a warning light.
15:22But so far,
15:24the pressure is more on growth
15:26than sustainability.
15:28The balance sheet is relatively
15:30still good,
15:32but there are growth opportunities
15:34that may be a challenge in the future.
15:36Okay. You see that
15:38our sustainability is quite safe.
15:40It will be sustainable in that position.
15:42What about growth?
15:44Can it grow again?
15:46It's possible that
15:48the growth will be slower.
15:50What trend do you see
15:52in the price-to-join index
15:54right now?
15:58It should be
16:00sideways.
16:02Sideways.
16:04Maybe it's a little weak.
16:06Because,
16:08as I said earlier,
16:10the price-to-join index is a decrease in the Fed.
16:12Whether it's true or not.
16:14If it doesn't happen,
16:16it will tend to go down.
16:18If it happens,
16:20it's according to expectations.
16:22On the domestic side,
16:24the question is the exchange rate.
16:26Will the decrease in the Fed
16:28actually be able to pull back
16:30the short-term capital
16:32to enter us or not?
16:34Because it will give a little
16:36positive sentiment
16:38to the Rupiah market
16:40that still tends to weaken.
16:42So, those two factors will tend
16:44to pull back.
16:46It looks like the chance
16:48to go up from the market
16:50is limited.
16:52Because we know,
16:54maybe from the financial result,
16:56the earnings sub-price
16:58is relatively limited.
17:00So, it's mostly in-line
17:02or even weaker.
17:04We will leave the sideways position
17:06If the price-to-join index moves
17:08or breaks, at what level?
17:10According to you, Anta?
17:12Maybe above 73.
17:1473. Then we will exit
17:16from the sideways phase.
17:18Because the manufacturing data
17:20from the U.S. last night also fell
17:22to the lowest level in 8 months,
17:24there is an indication that the Fed in September
17:26that is projected to lower the interest rate
17:28will be able to pull back.
17:30Actually,
17:32if the manufacturing
17:34data is weak,
17:36it needs to be boosted.
17:38So, there is a reason
17:40for the Fed to lower the interest rate.
17:42So, it supports?
17:44It's slow.
17:46It's pushed from behind.
17:48By lowering the interest rate,
17:50it basically pushes the manufacturer
17:52or the economy to move faster.
17:54So, with
17:56weak manufacturing data,
17:58it should be a booster
18:00for the Fed to lower the interest rate?
18:02Yes, so it's an additional reason.
18:04Additional reason. But why?
18:06If so, it should be positive.
18:08But why was the response last night
18:10actually negative, sir?
18:12Because it was priced.
18:14Okay.
18:16We will continue later.
18:18Let's take a look at the first choices
18:20that we have summarized in the following graphic data
18:22from Mr. Chandra. There are 4 candidates
18:24among them are as follows.
18:26First,
18:28there are INK, PBAI,
18:30DKA BUY ON WEAKNESS,
18:32TOWR BUY, and SMGR
18:34BUY ON WEAKNESS.
18:36We will go to INK first.
18:38What's interesting about this stock, sir?
18:40They basically
18:42have a lot of export components.
18:44So, it should
18:46weaken the Rupiah value
18:48a bit before positive.
18:50So far, I think
18:52maybe from the
18:54expansion side, it's still going.
18:56So, it should still be okay.
18:58This is purely
19:00from a technical point of view.
19:02Because the share price has been
19:04corrected quite a lot.
19:06So,
19:08we see there is a chance for a rebound.
19:10Rebound to what position?
19:128,500.
19:148,500. Okay.
19:16So, the target price is 8,500.
19:18BUY at the current price position.
19:20Maybe
19:22around 8,000. The market is weakening.
19:24Maybe wait a little bit. It's okay.
19:26Okay. The current INKP is
19:288,150. BUY at the lower level.
19:30Around 8,000. It can go in again.
19:32The target price is 8,500.
19:34MDK, ATWR, SMGR.
19:36We are here with Usa Jedah Pemirsa.
19:38Stay with us in the Market Bus segment.
19:40Yes, Pemirsa.
19:42It's 9.08 AM.
19:44It's Western Indonesia time.
19:46We are here with the opening trading update.
19:48Where the Samgabungan price index
19:50follows the Asian exchange which is quite deep.
19:52Pemirsa. We saw earlier that there is Nikkei Japan
19:54which fell by 4%. However,
19:56the Samgabungan price index
19:58has started to drop
20:00by 0.17% only.
20:02At 7,313.
20:04Back to 7,300.
20:06Pemirsa with the exchange rate
20:08against the US dollar
20:10at 16,259.
20:14The sector that is experiencing the deepest weakness
20:16is of course led by Pemirsa's finance.
20:18And there are 4 sectors that are
20:20stronger with stocks
20:22that fell quite deep based on
20:24losers based on value.
20:26Pemirsa has GOTO
20:28which fell by 1.89%.
20:30In the Heli segment, it fell by 3.56%.
20:32MDKA fell by 1.23%.
20:34There are PANI,
20:36SMRA, CEPIN, and IOTF.
20:387 stocks in the losers category.
20:40In the gainers,
20:42there is FILM which fell by 1.56%.
20:44SMDM, SURI,
20:46BSDE, BSML,
20:48HRTA, RIKI,
20:50GOLF, WIFI, TGOOG,
20:52and SSMS.
20:54That's it for the short opening review
20:56in the first session this morning.
20:58We are quite strong.
21:00Mr. Chandra, the weakness
21:02was 0.8%.
21:04Now, it's just a bit and it's back to 7,300.
21:06Maybe
21:08this foreign netbuy is still quite strong
21:10to withstand the weakness of the index
21:12and the joint, even though there is an Asian stock that has been corrected.
21:14Okay, let's move on
21:16to the selection recommendation.
21:18MDKA, TOWR, SMGR.
21:20MDKA,
21:22we see it's basically a safe haven.
21:24Gold producer, gold price is still good.
21:26So, maybe we can buy on weakness.
21:28Our target is 2520.
21:30The target is 2520.
21:34TOWR,
21:36PROTELINDO,
21:38Menara Company,
21:40basically very resilient so far.
21:42We still see the telecom
21:44telecommunication industry is still positive.
21:46We can also buy,
21:48especially now it's a bit weak,
21:50a bit close to 800.
21:52Our target is 840.
21:54SMGR or SMEN Indonesia,
21:56the construction is still
21:58driven by the government.
22:00We hope
22:02maybe there will be a rebound
22:04in the second half.
22:06So, in the first half, the result is a bit weak.
22:08Maybe we can recover in the second half.
22:10This buy, our target
22:12is 3940.
22:14How is the entry level?
22:16Today, MDKA dropped quite deep,
22:18more than 1%.
22:20How is the entry level?
22:22I think it's close to 2300.
22:24It should be attractive.
22:26Okay, buy on weakness because now it's still at 2400.
22:28Then, for TOWR, the target is 840.
22:30How is the entry level?
22:32Now, it's around 810 or 815.
22:34It looks okay.
22:36It's still okay for the current price?
22:38Yes.
22:40Lastly, SMGR.
22:42SMGR
22:44may wait a little bit
22:46weaker
22:48because the target price is quite close,
22:503940.
22:52Right now, it's 3910, up 1.56%.
22:54Wait for it to drop again.
22:56That's why you recommend buy on weakness.
22:58Okay.
23:00That's it. INK, PMDK, TOWR, SMGR.
23:02Briefly, tips for
23:04retail investors, how is it?
23:08Basically, maybe pay more attention
23:10to the blue chips.
23:12If there's a pressure
23:14to sell again,
23:16maybe you can take an opportunistic position.
23:18To be able to buy.
23:20Right.
23:22Thank you, Mr. Chandra, for sharing the information
23:24in the market bus segment.
23:26Good luck to you. Good morning, sir.
23:28Thank you. Good morning.